The Prom (2020)

Film: The Prom (2020)

Stars: Meryl Streep, James Corden, Nicole Kidman, Keegan-Michael Key, Andrew Rannells, Ariana DeBose, Kerry Washington, Tracey Ullman, Jo Ellen Pellman

Director: Ryan Murphy

Oscar History: No nominations

Snap Judgment Ranking: 3/5 stars

It goes without saying, but 2020 has been an awful year.  We have spent much of it in isolation (if we cared about those around us), and as a result it's been a lonely year (compounded by a bitter election, a rocky economy, and the constant fear of loved ones coming down with Covid, & the fears that came when they inevitably got it).  The movies have reflected this.  Without the presence of good-over-evil blockbusters (which were all saved for 2021), most movies that have been released this year have been depressing, oftentimes dealing with heavy subjects; there was one critically-acclaimed one I made it through 30 minutes of yesterday that I literally had to turn off because I just couldn't deal with more sadness (I may still get back to it if I feel I'm missing in my year-end lists).  So even with the mixed reviews, I was genuinely excited to indulge in The Prom.  I love musicals, and I love many people in this cast, but really I just wanted something happy to watch for a few hours, and something new.  The Prom is featherlight & has problems, but it delivers if you just want a cotton candy distraction for two hours, and it's a generic crowdpleaser that I recommend trying if you're doing a socially-distant screening this Christmas.

(Spoilers Ahead) The movie is about a young lesbian teenager Emma (Pellman) who cannot go to her prom with her secret girlfriend Alyssa (DeBose), but it's really about four Broadway performers who come to her town to help her get to go to the prom...and in the process get some good publicity for their flailing careers.  The two leads are Dee Dee Allen (Streep, doing at least a semi-fictionalized version of Patti LuPone, let's be real here), and Barry Glickman (Corden), an openly gay actor who is always just out-of-reach of proper critical acclaim.  They choreograph numbers to convince the town, along with eternal chorus girl Angie (Kidman) and former TV star Trent (Rannells), that being gay is okay, and in the process they become better people, confronting old demons & moving on to new chapters in their lives.

The plot is pretty thin, and I'm not saying this just because it's directed by Murphy, but it feels like an extended episode of Glee (which, if you've read this blog a long time, is not a problem for me-I liked the first few seasons of Glee).  Everyone other than Kerry Washington's Mrs. Greene (Alyssa's mother) and a team of Abercrombie-ready bullies is open & accepting, and by the end they all join with Emma in their prom.  The musical numbers are flashy, fun, & "Tonight Belongs to You" is the big showstopper it should be (this must have been a blast to watch onstage-this should do good numbers if it tours).  The script has tons of plot holes (biggest of which is why, exactly, everyone knew Emma was taking a girl to the prom in the first place), but musicals always have plot holes-people are literally singing & dancing for no reason-so this isn't a big problem.  And The Prom feels like a musical that is genuinely happy to be a musical, resisting most winks to the musical-averse in the crowd.

The casting, though, is a bit of a mixed bag & for a while threatens to take the movie off of its track.  Streep is delightful, hammy, and not stretching herself at all (though, really, when was the last time Streep properly "stretched" herself rather than just coasting on her Grand Dame reputation), and Kidman/Rannells are fun if one-dimensional.  But oh lord is James Corden bad in this movie.  I don't even have the collective allergy that the rest of the internet has to Corden (I have liked skits on his show, and I think he does have decent comedic timing even if his recent movie roles feel like he's become a "meet my asking price & I'll do it" sort of actor in the vein of Nicolas Cage).  But his mincing, stereotypically gay performance is the sort of thing you expect from 1990's cinema, and it definitely feels gross coming from a straight man (the part on Broadway was played by openly gay actor Christopher Sieber).  I'm not someone who subscribes to either the school that straight actors can't play queer characters, nor that all queer characters need to redefine stereotypes, but...come on here.  Corden's acting is bad (you understand that when Tracey Ullman comes onscreen & is so much better she nearly knocks him offscreen), and it's deeply offensive, and I struggle to understand why someone (cough Ryan Murphy cough) didn't put that together during an audition.  The role is basically begging for Tituss Burgess to play it (he'd be perfect), and Corden's performance is so wrong I spent much of the film wincing when he came onstage.  If you can get past his work, this is a fun, entertaining ride...but I would understand if you can't.

Confirmation (2016)

Film: Confirmation (2016)
Stars: Kerry Washington, Wendell Pierce, Greg Kinnear, Jeffrey Wright, Bill Irwin, Eric Stonestreet, Jennifer Hudson, Grace Gummer
Director: Rick Famuyiwa
Oscar History: The film was on HBO, so it wasn't eligible, but I suspect it will grab an Emmy nomination or two
Snap Judgment Ranking: 3/5 stars

Looking around Twitter, a lot of the initial reviews of the film seem to compare it to the recent hit The People vs. OJ Simpson, a show which I didn't watch because I have developed a pretty solid Ryan Murphy allergy despite having seen most of his television work in the past (sadly, because of the bravura praise the series has received I'll probably relent this summer).  Still, it's worth commenting since the courtroom drama is enjoying a massive success not only in television but in documentaries and radio in the past few years coming in the wake of NPR's massively-successful Serial.  The idea of taking on one of the ugliest and bitterest moments in recent American political history, that of the Clarence Thomas hearings, seemed like a no-brainer for HBO, who has had remarkable success in recent years with real-life political films like Recount and Game Change.  Seeing it in reality in many ways plays out something akin to a horror film, regardless of your political beliefs, and it made for arresting, if not always challenging, cinema.

(Real life doesn't need spoilers-if you don't know what happened, you need to pay more attention to history) It has to be said before I delve too deeply into this review that the film's quality in some ways does matter upon whether you believe Justice Thomas' testimony or that of Professor Hill.  While the writers, and in particular Wendell Pierce who plays Thomas, do a decent job of not showing Thomas' beliefs in regard to the matter (we get no secret moments when he's alone or with his wife where he claims the case has some merit or shows signs of guilt), it's impossible to watch this film without a perspective.  After all, as is pointed out point-blank in the film, this was not a political debate with a lot of areas of grey, as the testimonies of both parties were so diametrically-opposed that one of them clearly had to have perjured themselves before the Senate Judiciary Committee.  As a result, I feel it required that I point out (both because it will color my opinion of the film and because this doubles as a political blog) that I have long sided with Anita Hill in this conversation.  The overwhelming evidence against Thomas, the fact that there were so many corroborating witnesses to her complaints, as well as that there were other women who were willing to testify (such as Angela Wright), and the fact that Hill had nothing to gain and quite frankly everything to lose by coming out against Thomas has cemented my belief that her allegations against Thomas were truthful, in which case he didn't deserve a spot on the federal judiciary, much less his current position on the Supreme Court.

This is clearly the belief of the producers of the film, as while the film takes the unusual tactic of never actually confirming or denying Clarence Thomas' guilt (history hasn't even figured that one out definitively yet), they do tacitly imply it by giving Hill's inner perspective and turmoil while never giving us, say, a flashback scene that would have confirmed our suspicions about what happened.  As a result of this, conservatives have pointed that this is just another Hollywood attack, and whether you think the attacks justified or not (I do), they do have a point.  People like Sens. Orrin Hatch, Arlen Specter, and (in particular) Alan Simpson and Jack Danforth come across as bullies and sexists, aggressively attacking Anita Hill to get Thomas through.  It's worth noting, however, that perhaps no politician comes out of this film in worse shape than now-Vice President Joe Biden (Kinnear).  Biden, who would go on to become a champion of women with the Violence Against Women Act in 1994 comes across as a nice guy completely out of his element.  Kinnear's Biden, jovial and clearly someone who relishes his ability to be liked by both sides of the aisle, is lambasted by the writers and by other characters for not having enough spine.  Ted Kennedy, the only senator who gets much of a moment of redemption in the film, frequently makes asides to Biden to stop the Republicans, but Biden doesn't appear to have enough skin in the game.  Many commentators have retroactively stated that Biden could have done more to stop the character assassinations against Anita Hill, and in particular to bring more credence to her argument.  One wonders in hindsight, at least in terms of what the vice president did at the time, how much Biden actually believed Anita Hill, or if it was wholly that he was concerned about people's perceptions of him if he didn't approve Justice Thomas.

It's worth noting, of course, that Sen. Biden voted against Thomas in the end in the closest Supreme Court vote in history, something none of the other Republicans name-checked can claim, but that stain is there, and it's probably a good segway into the actual movie, as Greg Kinnear is definitely one of the movie's highlights.  While the cast is routinely good, very few enter into great, Kinnear being one of three exceptions.  The others are Kerry Washington, who at the center of the film provides beautiful monologue and tries to find the inner-workings of someone who has been extremely guarded (and understandably so) against the press, and Grace Gummer, who stands out as perhaps the only person in the film other than Hill who is clearly, unequivocally pointing out that this conversation has a whole lot more to do with gender than just race as the film frequently frames up the argument.  Gummer, an aide to Sen. Kennedy, convinces him in an excellent moment to forget about the political ramifications and do the right thing, coming to Hill's aid in a way that Biden and none of the other Democratic senators had done.

There's a terrific scene, one that is actually based on history so keep that in mind if Nita Lowey, Louise Slaughter, Barbara Boxer, or Eleanor Holmes Norton still represent you in Congress (you should be proud).  Rep. Pat Schroeder and six other female members of the House of Representatives bust into a Senate lunch (I thought that seemed a bit ridiculous that someone would deny members of the House an audience with the Senate lunchroom, but that's actually based on fact), and admonish Biden and Senate Majority Leader George Mitchell for ignoring Professor Hill and women across the country.  It's a great scene, and perhaps the only scene that properly points out that one of the biggest deficits at the time was that there were no women on the Senate Judiciary Committee at the time of this hearing.  In fact, only two women (Nancy Landon Kassebaum and Barbara Mikulski) were even in the entire Senate body.  The film points this out over the ending credit, but it seems like a deeply-missed opportunity to not make this a primary focus, particularly considering that this year will likely mark the first time a major party will nominate a woman to the White House.  One of the single-biggest ramifications of the Thomas/Hill hearings was that women won five Senate seats in one election cycle for the first time in American history that year, a record that would stand until 2012.  The film rarely focuses, however, on this lens (we never once hear it stated by anyone that there was no woman on the judiciary committee, something that would never happen again after the 1992 elections).  It would have been so powerful and perhaps provide a wider lens on this film if we'd seen, say, a cut to Patty Murray or Carol Moseley-Braun saying enough is enough while watching the Anita Hill hearings.

This lack of perspective, and instead simply focusing on the (admittedly, addictive) facts of the case make the film merely good and not great.  There is no larger artistic license here, just presenting something that was a national embarrassment and a low-point in the history of the Supreme Court.  By not taking a stronger political stance until the end credits, the filmmakers lost me as much as they could by a subject that I was fascinated by (I enjoyed playing "guess the senator" in most scenes).  Still, because of the dialogue that it will cause and the issues that it hopefully raises, Confirmation is still worth your time.  Remember that gender equality is not something that is ancient history, and something to never be taken for granted.

25 Random Thoughts on the Emmy Nominations

Emmy-nominated presenters Uzo Aduba and Cat Deeley

Well, it's time for one of my favorite features here on the blog-the post-nominations random train-of-thought list of what I thought coming out of this morning's Emmy nominations.  Each awards show I run down the 25 totally random things that go through my head as I slowly memorize the nominations.  Shall we take a look?

1. Anyone else think it was odd that they picked two surefire nominees (Uzo Aduba and Cat Deeley) to present the nominations?  Neither of them looked actually surprised by their own nominations (just for their show's).

2. Really?  The Emmys skipped Empire, arguably the buzziest show on television (and it's on a major network...the major network, in fact, that is airing the Emmys this year!), to once again go with Downton Abbey and Homeland.  Only Taraji P. Henson scored major love for the series, as Terence Howard, Jussie Smollett, and Jennifer Hudson all were left in the cold as well.

3. Really-Naked and Afraid is an Emmy nominee?!?  Really?!?!?!?!  Why not just nominate the Kardashians while we're at it.  This is why I hate reality television.

4. Jim Parsons' snub has to be the story of the morning, particularly considering Mayim Bialik made it.  I have to say, though, that The Big Bang Theory was bordering on unwatchable this past season-even the Amy/Sheldon/Penny trio episodes weren't any good.  And the sexism and homophobia was entering Two and a Half Men territory.  Perhaps this is the end?

5. Modern Family is losing this year-only two nominated regulars?  It's down to the bare minimum at this point, and I suspect Veep or Transparent makes the cut instead.

6. Does anyone actually watch Episodes or House of Lies?

7. I actually think that, barring Amy Schumer totally dominating the conversation, that Amy Poehler could finally break her streak this year.

8. DANDY MOTT!!!!!!

9. Also, if you're into that sort of thing, TATIANA MASLANY!!!!

10. Between the Empire snubs, Kerry Washington being skipped, and Gina Rodriguez also not making it, there may be some credence to an EmmysSoWhite hashtag.

11. Do we really need eight nominees for Supporting Actress?  I honestly have never even heard of that Niecy Nash show.  Not that she's whom I would cut (gotta love a first-time nominee), but just saying.

12. Jon Hamm will win an Emmy this year...but not for Mad Men.  His Reverend Wayne is the funniest thing I've seen in a while...also the picture the Emmys picked for Hamm may be the handsomest I've ever seen.

13. Could Guest Actress in a Comedy be more boring-Joan Cusack, Christine Baranski, and Elizabeth Banks have been playing these roles for years-come on Emmy, promote them to supporting or let it go.  The same for Michael J. Fox and Beau Bridges over in Drama Guest.

14. I am so excited that Moss, Hamm, and Hendricks all made it for the final season-here's to hoping one of them finally wins.  Also, I'm super pumped by the Game of Thrones nominations.

15. If I have to endure as many years of Breaking Bad's ubiquity with Better Call Saul, I will no longer watch the Emmys.

16. Ha!  Grace of Monaco after all of that critical drubbing somehow landed on Best TV Movie!  I hope Nicole shows up.

17. David Oyelowo also looks very fetching in his Emmy photo...and will win this as a makeup for his Oscar snub (as well as for being in a stunningly weak field-where's Bill Paxton?).

18. Every single one of the Best Actress in a Miniseries nominees is an Oscar nominee or winner.  This feels a little bit like a cheap way to pick up an EGOT as a result.  Also, why not just throw Kidman in there while you're at it?

19. Will Emmy prove it's more about the performance or the politics?  That's what Mo'Nique is asking...probably about Finn Wittrock and his need to win an Emmy (just kidding-glad to see Mo back acting-I am guessing she wins as well).

20. It bums me out royally that all of the Variety Talk Series nominees star straight white men.  Talented straight white men, but still.

21. Tress Macneille gets her first Emmy nomination after over 450 episodes of The Simpsons!  Huzzah!  Also suspiciously perennial nominee Harry Shearer is nowhere to be seen (perhaps the TV Academy didn't like his temper tantrum?).

22. Amy Poehler at least will win for writing the Globes even if Julia Louis-Dreyfus wins again.

23. There's an Emmy category for Best Narrator?  Also, Miranda Richardson is the narrator of National Geographic Wild?

24. Can Rachel Portman get an Emmy to go along with her Oscar for scoring Bessie?

25. I hate Anthony Bourdain-Klum/Gunn, Bergeron, Lynch, Deeley-don't care who wins as long as it's not Bourdain.

And there you have it-my thoughts on this morning's Emmy nominations.  What about yours?  I suspect you have thoughts, so let's get them out in the open!  Click the comments below!

2015 Predictions

It's time to make New Year's predictions for 2015!  Last year, I gave this a shot and my results were questionable at best (I got 6/20 on the political predictions and 5/14 on entertainment...possibly 7 depending on the Chastain and Pixar ones).  Despite these terrible prediction ratios, I'm going to give it a shot again this year, though since it's an off-political year, I'm giving the twenty predictions to entertainment.

20 Predictions About Entertainment

1. Seth Rogen and James Franco receive a standing ovation when they present an award at either the Globes or Oscars.

2. Jennifer Aniston takes at least one major Best Actress prize from Julianne Moore, though not the Oscar.

3. Avengers: Age of Ultron ends up making more money than Star Wars, but Star Wars gets a better Rotten Tomatoes score and more Oscar nominations.

4. Viola Davis gets an Emmy nomination while Kerry Washington does not, receiving calls of racism since two black women aren't nominated in the same category despite history indicating they probably would normally be.

5. At least one major celebrity will be outed by a phone hacking.

6. Kelli O'Hara finally takes home a Tony Award for her role as Anna in yet another King & I revival.

7. Kristin Chenoweth ends her unusual Tony Award nomination drought when she is nominated for On the Twentieth Century.

8. The end of Glee results in a number of articles about how the show never lived up to its pilot, despite it being relatively strong its first couple of seasons.

9. Ansel Elgort ends up signing a major leading role with a prestige director, as well as a superhero role in an upcoming comic book film.

10. Stephen Colbert's turn on the Late Show will receive mixed reviews at best.

11. Spy with Melissa McCarthy ends up being another massive hit, causing her to FINALLY get her first Golden Globe nomination.

12. Adele releases her third album and it becomes the highest-grossing record of the year, despite most complaining it isn't as good as 21.

13. Rush Limbaugh will say something truly despicable about Michael B. Jordan playing the Human Torch in Fantastic Four, and no one on the Right will call him on it.

14. Neil Patrick Harris will sing at least two musical numbers during the Oscars, the latter involving rapping and "edge" and yet neither will land properly.

15. Shane Dawson will quit YouTube as an onscreen personality.

16. The Duke and Duchess of Cambridge will give birth to a baby girl, and Elizabeth will be one of her names, though not necessarily the first.

17. In retaliation, Kim Kardashian will become pregnant yet again.  Her sister Khloe will become one of the biggest tabloid cover models of the year when she ends up in an equally high-profile relationship with another celebrity, causing accusations of a feud between the two.

18. Justin Bieber will be arrested.  Possibly so will Lindsay Lohan, but no one will care.

19. One Direction break-up rumors will fly when the band members start recording duets as solo artists, though they'll stick it out through the year.

20. Looking will not get strong enough ratings, resulting in it being cancelled during its second season, which will cause at least two rants on this blog.

15 Predictions About Politics

1. President Obama's approval ratings recover in the face of an improving economy, though they never steadily remain above 50%.

2. Hillary Clinton, Jeb Bush, Rand Paul, and Chris Christie all declare their intentions to run for president.

3. Elizabeth Warren, Joe Biden, and Paul Ryan do not.

4. Rep. Tammy Duckworth becomes the Senate nominee for the seat in Illinois.

5. Sec. Alison Lundergan Grimes watches her once promising career go up in flames as she loses reelection in Kentucky.

6. The Democrats also lose the governor's race in Kentucky without picking up Mississippi or Louisiana, marking their lowest count of governor's mansions in 17 years.

7. Gov. Peter Shumlin, despite a major push by Republicans, will win another term in Vermont despite a weird aberration in the voting law that has left his race undecided months after the November elections despite him winning the popular vote.

8. Sen. Barbara Boxer's retirement will cause major headaches for Democrats in California, as a number of ambitious Democrats enter the primary, causing worries of two Republicans advancing to the runoff.

9. Former Senator Russ Feingold will run for his old seat in the U.S. Senate, setting up a marquee matchup against the man who defeated him in 2010, Ron Johnson.  Other former senators such as Mark Begich and Kay Hagan will be courted to run for seats in their states, but will ultimately decide against it.

10. No member of Congress will switch parties.

11. President Obama will end up signing the Keystone Pipeline into law, but not without at least one major concession from the Congress (likely on immigration).

12. Bernie Sanders decides to run for president under a third-party banner, potentially causing him to be dumped from the Democratic caucus of the Senate and causing major comparisons to Ralph Nader.

13. Harry Reid and John McCain both end up running for reelection, with McCain getting a very strong third party challenge from the right.  As a result, expect maverick McCain to disappear into arch-conservative McCain for a while.

14. George W. Bush hits the campaign trail in the South for his brother Jeb, ending both his moratorium on campaigning and his silence on the Obama administration.

15. The NRSC and NRCC go back to continually out-earning the DSCC and DCCC.

And those are my predictions for this upcoming year-what about yours?  What are you expecting to see in the year ahead?

Emmy Predictions: The Dramas

We’ve hit the movies and the comedies, so with just one day left until a lot of Hollywood stars are either ecstatic or firing their agents, we’ll move into the five Drama categories.  As I’ve mentioned before, the higher the ranking, the more likely I think it is that someone will be nominated (not necessarily win, though).

Best Drama Series

1. Breaking Bad

2. True Detective

3. House of Cards

4. Game of Thrones

5. Mad Men

6. Downton Abbey

The Lowdown: This looks extremely familiar, because, well, it is.  The only show that I’m skipping from last year is Homeland, which has become a shadow of its former celebrated self.  I do feel like new blood could oust the aging Mad Men and Downton Abbey, but no show aside from True Detective seems like it could be elevated onto this list.  The Americans is more a critical than an audience fave (which matters with ratings-conscious Emmy) and The Good Wife missed last year (usually a death knell) and this category has been very resistant to network dramas.  I say that this is the lineup, though don’t be surprised if Downton or Mad Men become the surprise miss of the morning.

Winner?: I mean, Breaking Bad has milked that double season for all it’s worth.  True Detective could be a factor, but that seems more of a lead actor situation.  Walter White wins in his final showdown.

Best Actor in a Drama Series

1. Bryan Cranston, Breaking Bad

2. Matthew McConaughey, True Detective

3. Kevin Spacey, House of Cards

4. Woody Harrelson, True Detective

5. James Spader, The Blacklist

6. Jon Hamm, Mad Men

The Lowdown: Once again, prestige (a pair of Oscar winners) and love of their shows will cement the top four easily in place.  James Spader was once a major Emmy player for Boston Legal, and I suspect the ratings on this show will ensure him a nomination (perhaps I am underestimating it even for Best Series?).  The final slot is a showdown between previous winner Jeff Daniels and long-suffering loser Jon Hamm.  I’m going to go with Hamm because his show is more established with Emmy and didn’t get a gut-punch cancellation.  That said, Mad Men is clearly weakened going into this year, and I think at least one of its perennials will miss.

Winner?: This is going to be an amazing showdown between the recently crowned Oscar Best Actor and a longtime Emmy favorite retiring his iconic character.  I don’t dare predict who will win until I see how their shows fare in other categories, but this is going to be one for the ages.

Best Actress in a Drama Series

1. Robin Wright, House of Cards

2. Kerry Washington, Scandal

3. Julianna Margulies, The Good Wife

4. Claire Danes, Homeland

5. Elisabeth Moss, Mad Men

6. Tatiana Maslany, Orphan Black

The Lowdown: Occasionally getting snubbed when you were expected to get in has a HUGE effect the next year (see Sean Hayes for a good example), and I think that’s what Maslany is going to be this year.  Michelle Dockery for Downton Abbey or Lizzy Caplan for Masters of Sex or even Keri Russell in The Americans all would make more sense, but Orphan Black is a major part of pop culture right now and she’s easily a breakout star.  The rest of the women seem pretty set, though Moss could be vulnerable if Mad Men love completely falters.

Winner?: Margulies may have had one helluva a season, but I think this is a battle between Washington and Wright (Danes has slipped too far to win, though she’s got at least one more nomination in her before the sun sets on her series).  Washington is on the biggest show on network television right now if you go strictly on buzz, and I still think that she’ll win for this role, but the fact that she missed last year (when Scandal love seemed to peak) could mean Wright’s ice queen will enjoy this trophy.

Best Supporting Actor in a Drama Series

1. Aaron Paul, Breaking Bad

2. Peter Dinklage, Game of Thrones

3. Dean Norris, Breaking Bad

4. Jon Voight, Ray Donovan

5. Josh Charles, The Good Wife

6. Mandy Patinkin, Homeland

The Lowdown: I don’t watch Boardwalk Empire anymore, but it does appear that Bobby Cannavale is not in contention this year (I suspect his character may have been a one-season arc), so we’re left with only a handful of actors from last year that could be returning, chief amongst them Aaron Paul, Mandy Patinkin, and Peter Dinklage.  Dean Norris also seems to have gotten a lot of press for Breaking Bad and it’s hard to argue with an Oscar winner at the Emmys, so I think Jon Voight is probably going to be up here as well.  That leaves one last slot, and I think that Josh Charles major season on The Good Wife coupled with his nomination a few years ago for the same role will be the push he needs to take out someone like John Slattery in Mad Men or Kit Harington in Game of Thrones.

Winner?: Breaking Bad is going to be hard to beat, and Aaron Paul seems quite likely to pick up a third trophy for his final season on the show.  That being said, Dinklage has had a marvelous actorly showcase this season on Game of Thrones, and he has been favored by Emmy before-it could happen again.

Best Supporting Actress in a Drama Series

1. Anna Gunn, Breaking Bad

2. Maggie Smith, Downton Abbey

3. Christine Baranski, The Good Wife

4. Michelle Monaghan, True Detective

5. Christina Hendricks, Mad Men

6. Emilia Clarke, Game of Thrones

The Lowdown: Emmy likes to repeat-that’s the best way to make sense of this list.  While Gunn, Smith, and Baranski all seem pretty well-set (Baranski doesn’t have quite the heat she once did, but Emmy loves her to bits considering she has eleven nominations so far), the final three slots are a bit harder to sell.  I suspect we’ll see Monaghan (someone other than Harrelson/McConaughey need to score from that show), and I am going to pick Hendricks/Clarke for the final two slots because they managed to make it in last year in a tough competition.  Emmy could of course go with someone they once had the hots for like Archie Panjabi in The Good Wife or Joanne Froggatt in Downton Abbey or even someone outside the box like Bellamy Young for Scandal or Lena Headey for Game of Thrones, but my money is on Clarke/Hendricks for now.

Winner?: If Maggie Smith ever bothered to show up for one of these awards shows, I suspect they would call off the voting and just proclaim her the winner, but her absence makes it harder to vote for her.  I suspect Gunn will win her second trophy for her show’s final season, with Christina Hendricks continuing to stew over the fact that no actor from Mad Men will ever win an Emmy.

And there you have it folks-tune in tomorrow to see my thoughts on the Emmy roundup, but before we get there-which dramatic contenders are you rooting for?  Are you expecting?  Share in the comments!

Emmy Predictions: The Dramas

It’s that time of year again, the time of year where Lady Emmy opens her golden wings and bestows upon a myriad of television personalities (likely the same personalities as last year) a statue and a 45-second speech.  The Emmy Awards, because of their repetitive nature, and the fact that I cannot possibly see all of the nominees (compare the maybe 100 hours it takes to see all of the Oscar nominees to the 22 it takes to see just one series and you’ll see what I mean) aren't in the same league for me as AMPAS's golden-abbed adonis, but that doesn’t mean it’s not fun to discuss the first letter in the EGOT.  I’m going to be separating this week’s Emmy festivities into three articles (including a very special guest star!), and because it’s the category that Emmy pundits consider the greatest, I’ll start with drama.

Drama Series

Breaking Bad

Downton Abbey

Game of Thrones

Homeland

House of Cards

Mad Men

Shows John Actually Watches: Game of Thrones, Mad Men

Shows John Wishes He Watched: Downton Abbey, but it’s been spoiled to death at this point for me

Shows John is Tired of Hearing About on Twitter: Breaking Bad

With the Emmy Awards, it’s always a solid bet to look at last year’s winner, which was Homeland (Mad Men has been victorious here before also), and despite what some pundits are saying, I think Homeland is closer than it seems-Emmy rarely crowns a show and just leaves it at that; usually, she needs to recognize the series multiple times.  Still, if the internet has anything to say about it, Breaking Bad, which is in the midst a juggernaut of buzz and support heading into the awards ceremony, likely will win this, and that’s my guess.

Drama-Lead Actor

Hugh Bonneville, Downton Abbey

Bryan Cranston, Breaking Bad

Jeff Daniels, The Newsroom

Jon Hamm, Mad Men

Damian Lewis, Homeland

Kevin Spacey, House of Cards

Actor John Likes the Most in General of this Bunch: Jon Hamm

Show I Really Should Get Around to Watching Because I’d Likely Love It: The Newsroom

Person I Just Realized Wasn’t Nominated: Steve Buscemi

Maybe I’m spoiled, I’m not sure.  After all, this is a considerably better lineup than Oscar produced last year and is admittedly a stronger lineup than Best Actress.  But I guess there’s a collective yawn here for me.  I probably should be watching Breaking Bad (Bryan Cranston is certain to win his fourth Emmy over Spacey and Lewis), which would get me more excited.  Maybe it’s because there was no surprise here-Daniels and Spacey are the newcomers, but you could hardly call either actor an ingénue.  Or I’m just being picky.

Drama-Lead Actress

Connie Britton, Nashville

Claire Danes, Homeland

Michelle Dockery, Downton Abbey

Vera Farmiga, Bates Motel

Elisabeth Moss, Mad Men

Kerry Washington, Scandal

Robin Wright, House of Cards

Person Who Is Most Ticked That They Gave Out 7 Nods and She Still Somehow Missed: Julianna Marguiles

Nomination I’m Most Excited About for a Show I Don’t Watch: Kerry Washington

For Some Reason I Cannot Explain Why I Stopped Watching: Connie Britton’s great turn on Nashville

I’m aware that the oddsmakers are betting on Claire Danes winning this trophy, and there’s so much evidence to back it up.  Homeland needs a big win somewhere, Danes won last year, and Emmy loves her.  It’s the common sense decision.  And yet, I cannot shake the thought that Kerry Washington will be honored.  Scandal is one of the few (very, very few) success stories in network television in the past year-a series that grew even further after its premiere season?  That’s something to celebrate, and though the networks ceded Drama long ago (only Britton, Washington, and Christine Baranski managed Drama nominations for a network show this year), this rare chance to honor a successful network drama may be too much to pass up.

Drama-Supporting Actor

Jonathan Banks, Breaking Bad

Bobby Cannavale, Boardwalk Empire

Jim Carter, Downton Abbey

Peter Dinklage, Game of Thrones

Aaron Paul, Breaking Bad

Marry Me Please: Aaron Paul

I Gave Up This Show a While Ago, Who Is He Playing?: Bobby Cannavale

Every Other Character on My Show Somehow Gets Nominated But Me: Vincent Kartheiser, who gave one of his best as Pete Campbell this past year

Supporting categories are extremely hard when you don’t watch the show.  Presuming that they are basing this at least somewhat on performance, the Emmy Awards tendency to nominate someone til the end of time makes it so that it’s difficult to know, if say, Jonathan Banks was a pivotal character or had a great year on Breaking Bad or if Jim Carter is mostly in the background and got in on goodwill/a lack of competitors (no slight on either actors, just giving myself some water to tread when I get this one wrong).  My gut says that Patinkin, who I’ve heard great things about, will take the trophy, but Aaron Paul or Jonathan Banks both seem like names that could just as easily be called out.

Drama-Supporting Actress

Morena Baccarin, Homeland

Christina Baranski, The Good Wife

Emilia Clarke, Game of Thrones

Anna Gunn, Breaking Bad

Christina Hendricks, Mad Men

Maggie Smith, Downton Abbey

Who the Hell is…Morena Baccarin (a Google search shows that she’s very beautiful and that I know her from The O.C. and How I Met Your Mother)

If She Promises to Show Up, She Should Automatically Get the Award Just for the Speech: Maggie Smith

Revenge for that Loss Three Years Ago: Christine Baranski, who finally one-upped Archie Panjabi

I’ve gone against Emmy’s tendency to honor people over and over again four times now, so I’m just going to suck it up and predict Maggie Smith for her 18 millionth award.  If she actually showed, I suspect that she’d be able to win this until the end of time, as the woman gives a solid speech.  If they tire of her absences and the awkward lull as some poor first-time presenter has to figure out what to do when no one shows, my hunch is that Anna Gunn might be able to win this in what is clearly becoming a Breaking Bad sweep.

And those are my thoughts on Drama.  What are yours?  For those of you who are better television watchers than I (did anyone catch all six series nominees), which should I be seeing?  Will I like Breaking Bad?  Is catching up on Downton worth it when your coworkers have ruined all of the surprises?  Share in the comments! 

2013 Emmy Predictions

We’re in a better late than never situation with the Emmy Awards, as most of you won’t read this until tomorrow morning, when you’ll see how wrong I was.  But for posterity’s sake, here are my Emmy predictions, ranked from most to least likely.  For Miniseries, check here.

Best Comedy Series

Modern Family

The Big Bang Theory

Girls

Louie

30 Rock

Veep

I’m aware I didn’t include Arrested Development, but I’m just not quite feeling it.  The old guard votes on the Emmy Awards, and while AD will certainly have one of the best-ever runs for an online show, I’m just not quite there yet for a show that is broadcast by such a non-traditional outlet.  AD could make it, of course, taking out likely Veep, which had a better-than-its-first season, and I’m not entirely sold that The Office is out of the running for its strong final season.

Best Actress in a Comedy Series

Julia Louis-Dreyfus, Veep

Lena Dunham, Girls

Tina Fey, 30 Rock

Amy Poehler, Parks and Recreation

Edie Falco, Nurse Jackie

Zoeey Deschanel, New Girl

This race is really seven women wide, as stunningly a tie resulted in seven nominees last year, with the other contender being Melissa McCarthy.  McCarthy has a lot of goodwill in Hollywood (she’s a bonafide movie star at this point), but her show doesn’t have the critical backing to get her in again.  My guess is she’s gone, though if The Heat is too big to ignore,  don’t count out Falco or Deschanel missing.  Also, wouldn’t you love to see Sutton Foster nominated here?  I am so depressed that that show hasn't been renewed yet (and looks likely for that big syndication deal in the sky)

Best Actor in a Comedy Series

Louis C.K., Louie

Jim Parsons, The Big Bang Theory

Alec Baldwin, 30 Rock

Don Cheadle, House of Lies

Jason Bateman, Arrested Development

Jon Cryer, Two and a Half Men

Bateman’s enough of a big screen star at this point for me to think he pulls this off, despite the Netflix handicap.  Matt LeBlanc was once in Emmys good graces, and is an outside possibility for Episodes, as is Jake Johnson for New Girl (though if both he and Deschanel and Greenfield make it, could it be the surprise contender in Best Comedy Series?).  However, Emmy loves what they already have, and the gargantuan ratings that continue to be seen for Two and a Half Men may leave Jon Cryer with an eighth nomination for the critically-lambasted series.  And with Big Bang on the cusp of winning the big prize, a third trophy for Parsons is not out of the question (and this year he can actually fully acknowledge his life partner.

Best Supporting Actress in a Comedy Series

Julie Bowen, Modern Family

Sofia Vergara, Modern Family

Mayim Bialik, The Big Bang Theory

Jane Krakowski, 30 Rock

Jessica Walter, Arrested Development

Kaley Cuoco, The Big Bang Theory

Honestly, I have large reservations about the final three (the first three seem certain)-Walter has the Netflix handicap, Krakowski gets nominated every year and never wins (and Emmy isn’t always nostalgic for final seasons), and Cuoco doesn’t have the acting pedigree that some of the others have.  Merritt Wever is a possibility to replace one of them, but despite critical love for her work, she was a surprise last year.  Betty White is also a possibility, but Hot in Cleveland seems to be in the sunset.  Allison Williams is also a possibility, but her character is intensely unlikeable, so I don’t quite think she’s there yet.  I’m fully expecting one of these women to be wrong, and this is the category I have a feeling I’ll be saying, “duh, of course that would hit” tomorrow morning.  And I pictured Sofia because, though I feel like Bowen or Bialik are probably going to win here, Vergara's work in the series is one of the show's best performances, and if she doesn't win this year, I think that the ship may have sailed.

Best Supporting Actor in a Comedy Series

Eric Stonestreet, Modern Family

Ty Burrell, Modern Family

Ed O’Neill, Modern Family

Max Greenfield, New Girl

Will Arnett, Arrested Development

Bill Hader, Saturday Night Live

Jeffrey Tambor is my guess for another Netflix-related casualty, so I’m just going with the television-favorite Will Arnett for Arrested.  Jesse Tyler Ferguson has always seemed like Emmys weak link of the four Modern Family guys, even though Stonestreet was always my opinion of the weakest acting link of the bunch, so I’m guessing that he manages to miss this time and that they continue to honor Hader instead, though that is not what smart money should be bet upon.  And finally, if my beloved Adam Driver gets a nomination tomorrow, I promise not to complain about any other nominees…for at least the first two paragraphs of my rant.  And am I the only one who is feeling Greenfield vs. O'Neill for the win here?

Best Drama Series

Homeland

Breaking Bad

Downtown Abbey

Mad Men

Game of Thrones

Boardwalk Empire

I’m aware that skipping House of Cards is probably a fool’s errand, but I just don’t see it scoring this high, and am a bit perplexed by everyone’s confidence in it.  If it, in particular, shatters the glass ceiling I suspect that I will have no qualms about guessing web-based series in the future.  In the meantime, Boardwalk looks incredibly weak from an awards-perspective, and so if it isn’t House of Cards that takes it out,  could it be the TV Critics Award favorite The Americans?  I definitely need to get on that series (I’m aware that my not watching the first three series on this list makes me a bad person, but in the case of the first two you can only hear “it’s the best thing ever” enough times before it starts getting annoying, and for some reason I never gave Downton a try).  If network television somehow pulls the miracle and gets a nomination here, it will be for either The Good Wife or Scandal.

Best Actress in a Drama Series

Claire Danes, Homeland

Kerry Washington, Scandal

Julianna Margulies, The Good Wife

Michelle Dockery, Downtown Abbey

Elisabeth Moss, Mad Men

Connie Britton, Nashville

Keri Russell, Vera Farmiga, Glenn Close, and Robin Wright are all perfectly respectable guesses for the final slot, and I’d normally agree with you, but they have to throw something at the best (perhaps only) critically-and-commercially successful freshman network drama, and Emmy favorite Connie Britton seems like your best bet for a reward.  I’m starting to feel like Kerry Washington’s win is inevitable despite a strong argument in favor of Danes, aren’t you?  Washington would make history as the first African-American woman to win in this category, and with the huge word-of-mouth success for her show, a rarity in network television, is something to be admired. 

Best Actor in a Drama Series

Bryan Cranston, Breaking Bad

Damian Lewis, Homeland

Kevin Spacey, House of Cards

Jon Hamm, Mad Men

Jeff Daniels, The Newsroom

Steve Buscemi, Boardwalk Empire

This may be the lineup I am most confident in for tomorrow’s announcement.  Cranston, Lewis, and Hamm are mortal locks, Daniels is a movie star breaking out in a television series, Kevin Spacey has two Oscars and no Emmys, and Buscemi is an Emmy perennial.  Hugh Bonneville at least needs to be mentioned considering his nomination last year, but I don’t think he has what it takes to return with a field this marquee.  And the winner also seems the most certain-despite strong competition, it's hard to imagine Cranston not winning this yet again.

Best Supporting Actress in a Drama

Maggie Smith, Downtown Abbey

Christina Hendricks, Mad Men

Christine Baranski, The Good Wife

Anna Gunn, Breaking Bad

Archie Panjabi, The Good Wife

Monica Potter, Parenthood

I really don’t want to put Monica Potter.  This isn’t because she’s not good (I don’t watch the show, but critics seem to be pretty uniformly in favor of her), but because it doesn’t make sense for Emmy to go so out on a limb for a mid-series performance with a character that was already established on the show.  A repeat nomination for Elizabeth McGovern makes way more sense, but pundits seem uniformly behind Potter.  If Potter does break the glass ceiling, however, don’t be surprised if she can ride that to a win: The Good Wifers seem intent on splitting the vote, Breaking Bad doesn’t usually highlight women at awards shows, Mad Men never wins acting trophies, and the Emmys are probably pissed that Maggie Smith always gets nominated and never shows up.

Best Supporting Actor in a Drama

Aaron Paul, Breaking Bad

Mandy Patinkin, Homeland

Peter Dinklage, Game of Thrones

Sam Waterston, The Newsroom

Jonathan Banks, Breaking Bad

Corey Stoll, House of Cards

I really am not seeing Stoll getting nominated, but do you have someone?  Mad Men, Homeland, Game of Thrones, and Breaking Bad likely have a plethora of challengers, but none really scream to mind, and so I’m going with Stoll, despite having little confidence in this pick.

And those are my selections-what about you?  What are you most hoping to see tomorrow morning?  Share in the comments!