![]() |
| Sen. Susan Collins (R-ME) |
But Trump won the 2016 election, and took much of the Never Trump movement with him. Of the dozens of members of the US House who refused to endorse Trump in 2016, only two (David Valadao & Mike Simpson) are still in office. Many of these figures either lost future elections (David Jolly, Eric Paulsen, & Mia Love, for example, all went down in general elections during the 2018 blue wave), or were driven out of the party. People like Portman & Jeff Flake chose to forego running for reelection all-together rather than deal with the fallout. Some senators survived, mostly in states like Utah & Alaska where (despite being red states) MAGA isn't nearly as powerful as it is in most of the rest of the country, but by-and-large the movement dissipated. Liz Cheney & Adam Kinzinger in 2024 were pretty much the last prominent Republicans to help a Democratic nominee. At this point, all of the Never Trump Republicans are relegated to history, are out of office, or are now Democrats.
All except one: Susan Collins. Collins has never publicly backed Trump in any of his three presidential elections. Collins publicly said she wrote in Paul Ryan's name in 2016 and Nikki Haley's name in 2024 (it's worth noting that, as far as I can find, Collins never publicly stated whom she voted for, Trump/Biden/otherwise, in 2020). Collins is also one of the only federal Republicans (possibly the only Republican) to have survived the entire Trump era in a blue state. Collins had the good luck to not be on the ballot in 2018 (when I think she would've lost), and had the even better luck in 2020 to be able to vote against Amy Coney Barrett, a crucial bipartisan moment for Collins that may have won her the race against House Speaker Sara Gideon that year. Part of this is skill (Collins is, in my opinion, the most talented cross-party federal politician still in office in the country of either party at this point), but it's worth noting I think Collins would've lost in 2018, and probably loses in 2020 if Ruth Bader Ginsburg hadn't died.
But recent polling in Maine seems to be spelling out something that might help Collins in a way I never would've imagined. A recent Emerson poll showed that in the Maine Democratic Primary, Graham Platner enjoyed an incredible lead over Janet Mills (55-28%), and had a 7-point lead over Collins in the general. This is one of many such polls for Platner, who has essentially taken on the distinctive frontrunner status in Maine, a Senate race we've talked about a lot here. What was interesting to me in this Emerson poll was the favorability ratings across the Democratic Party between Mills & Platner. Platner's voters generally liked Mills (56-36% favorability rating, a solid position to be in in a tough race). But Mills voters seem to hate Platner, with only 18% of them having a favorable viewpoint of him and 56% disliking him.
Normally, these numbers are things that people shouldn't worry about, and that I wouldn't normally care about-the Never Trump movement is maybe the best indication of that. Given a general election matchup that's competitive, the party gets in-line even if they don't love the nominee, and while there were a lot of very prominent Never Trump endorsees in 2016, the GOP largely just voted for their nominee en masse (it's how he won). In this case, I would normally think that the Mills voters would see Platner winning, complain for a minute, and get in-line.
But there's a problem here-Collins is famous for peeling off disaffected Democratic voters, and Platner is a uniquely tough candidate to swallow if you aren't already backing him (I have said, for the first time in my life, that he's a federal Democrat in a major federal race that I simply could not vote for & would ultimately leave the ballot blank if I lived in Maine). He has been deeply critical of the kinds of Democrats that don't like him (hence why they don't like him), and most of these Democrats, particularly those over 40, have likely voted for Collins in at least one of her elections. They are very comfortable with splitting the vote for her (Collins won with both Barack Obama and Joe Biden at the top of the ticket), so it begs the question-can Collins do something Hillary Clinton couldn't? Can she get the NeverPlatner voters to come to her side?
These Emerson numbers make me think that she can. Collins is in a position where, if the Republicans are so bad off in November (and with the rise of both oil prices & unemployment, they might get there) she can't win at all; she needs Trump in better shape than he is to have a shot (in some ways, she might mirror Norm Coleman in 2008 where a large swath of Democratic voters didn't back their Senate nominee because they actively disliked him, but it was too blue of a year for that to ultimately make the difference). But if she does win (and she has never lost a Senate race in nearly 30 years), it will almost certainly be because of this contingent: Democrats who have voted for her before (and also voted for Janet Mills before), but who have shown an outward dislike of the man the Democrats are about to nominate. If I'm the Collins team, I have to like what I'm seeing in this polling...and am surely prepared to try to do the reverse of what the NeverTrump movement never could.







