Election Night Guide: Texas through Wyoming

I am doing a final predictions series for the November 3rd general elections.  If you've missed previous articles, they're listed right here: Alabama-Arkansas, California-Hawaii, Iowa-Louisiana, Maine-Montana, Nebraska-North Dakota, Ohio-Tennessee

State Rep. James Talarico (D-TX)

Texas

Governor: Normally when I write these articles, I start the last states with U through W, but given that the picture for the article is always the first one on the page, it felt bizarre to pick some random person in Utah or Vermont or Virginia...and not one of the most famous figures to emerge in American politics in 2026 to headline the seventh and final article in this series.  First, we get to the governor's race.  State Rep. Gina Hinojosa (D) has run a helluva race against incumbent Gov. Greg Abbott, one that pretty much no one thought she could win...but she is still slightly down, and at this point (like Keisha Lance Bottoms and Aaron Ford in preceding days) she'll need a polling error in her favor to win.  Those happen, but this is Texas...the quintessential red state.  I think it'll be close, but she won't be able to seal the deal.

Senate: But I do think there's a real possibility that Sen. James Talarico (D) does.  I have watched politics since as early as 1996 (much more closely 2000 and after), and in that time I have never seen a statewide Democrat win the Lone Star State.  But the polling is strong for Talarico-unless something bizarre happens in the final week of the campaign, he will go into Election Night the winner of the aggregate polling from every single major polling aggregator (something, say, Beto O'Rourke never even came close to doing).  It is possible that Attorney General Ken Paxton (R), who has made serious missteps throughout the campaign but does have an "R" behind his name, will win.  This is still Texas we're talking about-Blexas has been a mirage for decades, one that Democrats have repeatedly fallen for just to come up short.  But while I have said for years that "I won't believe it until I see it" I also am not going to predict this race red just because I'm feeling anxious.  If I looked at the facts of this race, I'd predict Talarico.  And so I will. D+1

House: An aggressive mid-decade redraw in Texas likely will not be a dummymander in the way North Carolina would have (they won't get as many seats as they wanted, but they'll get more than they would've without the redraw).  As I've said for other redraws, we'll go by current numbering, so the 32nd (where Julie Johnson, who lost a primary for a nearby district to returning Rep. Colin Allred was drawn into a Trump +18 district) will flip to the Republicans.  I also think some of the nonsense about competition in the 9th district (where Al Green was drawn into a Trump +20 seat) is just that, and it will flip too.  Rep. Henry Cuellar should win again, and I feel the same way about Vincente Gonzalez despite Trump winning both their seats by 10-points.  This leaves three seats: 15th, 23rd, & 35th, the first two held by Republicans presently while the latter is a blue seat.  Weirdly, the reddest of these seats (the 15th) feels like the most probable flip, as Democrats struck gold with Tejano music legend Bobby Pulido, and I think he'll beat incumbent Rep. Monica de La Cruz (possibly the only person who could, but you only need one to get there).  For the last two, we have maybe the most horrifying Republican running for Congress this year in a swing seat, Brandon Herrera (a YouTuber whose celebration of gun violence was referenced in the Annunciation Catholic Church Shooter's manifesto) in the 23rd, while in the 35th we have a much more straight-forward race where it's probable they're on more even-footing in voter impressions, but it's also a seat that Trump won by only 10-points.  I'm going to guess that the parties split here, with the 35th staying blue and the 23rd going red (I'm kind of hoping for the reverse given how awful Herrera is, as I do not relish him getting this platform), which means that after all that Texas will just be R+1.

Utah

House: The only redraw this year that wasn't a gerrymander (but instead undoing a gerrymander), former Rep. Ben McAdams will cruise to an easy win in a Harris +24 district around the Salt Lake City metro area, and we get D+1.

Vermont

Governor: Perpetually popular moderate Gov. Phil Scott (R) has won reelection in Vermont largely by being the last true left-of-middle member of his party, but some of his moves this past Congress have been a bit more conservative than the Green Mountain State usually allows, and so I think this will be his closest shave against economist Amanda Janoo (D), though he'll win (and surely retire in 2028 to avoid an actual loss).

County Attorney Shannon Taylor (D-VA)

Virginia

Senate: Sen. Mark Warner will be running for another term, and he'll be winning one as well (another Senator I kind of wish had retired this cycle, but at least he'll win again).

House: The redraw that would've delivered Democrats four more seats in Virginia didn't come to fruition, but they'll still take some seats regardless.  The most vulnerable Republican is Rep. Jen Kiggans (R), who won this seat in 2020 against Rep. Elaine Luria (D)...and now Luria is going to win it right back.  I also think that the Democrats are going to take the 1st district, where County Attorney Shannon Taylor (D) is running a great campaign after losing the 2025 Attorney General primary, and Rep. Rob Wittman (R) is giving off the vibes of a longtime Safe R congressman who doesn't know how to run a competitive race.  Former Rep. Tom Perriello is also on the bubble in the 5th, and while I'm not predicting him against Rep. John McGuire, if the polling that shows Democrats at D+20 on the GCB in Virginia is right...that's what it'd take to get Perriello back into Congress.  For now, D+2

Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (D-WA)

Washington

House: Similar to Marcy Kaptur in Ohio, Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (D) has done few things to stop Democrats from hating her guts for siding with Republicans on major issues.  But even though Dems are mad, and this is the first election she'll run in without facing Joe Kent, I still think she gets her victory here (an annoyed vote is still a vote).  This is a Trump seat, but it's one trending toward the Democrats (thanks to continued blue voter growth in the Portland metro area bleeding into Washington), and I don't see a reason she can't win...honestly, this is on my list of districts likely to flip on a presidential level in 2028.

West Virginia

Senate: Shelley Moore Capito continues to avoid primary challenges despite a relatively moderate profile (not necessarily a moderate voting record, but a profile) and so she'll get a third term.

County Executive David Crowley (D-WI)

Wisconsin

Governor: Democrats avoided disaster earlier this year when Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley defeated State Rep. Francesca Hong after a truly horrendous Democratic Primary.  This likely cost Rep. Tom Tiffany his only shot at the governor's mansion.  Eight years of Gov. Tony Evers might induce some people to say "we need a change" but I don't think it'll be enough to overcome the Trump unpopularity in the Badger State, and so we should see a win for Crowley here.

House: Pundits seem more confident that businesswoman Rebecca Cooke (D) is headed to victory than Rep. Derrick Van Orden (R), and honestly it does feel like this Trump +7 seat might be closer than it looks (Wisconsin's electorate is weirdly inflexible in the Trump Era...always close, but inflexible).  Don't be surprised if Cooke loses her rematch in a surprise, but I'm going to pick her as I do think she'll win by some margin.  I don't think the same for nurse Mitchell Berman in the 1st district against Rep. Bryan Steil, even though this is a bluer district.

Wyoming

Governor: State Sen. Eric Barlow continues the long string of Republican governors (where have you gone, Dave Freudenthal?).

Senate: And Rep. Harriet Hageman (R) continues a long line of Republican senators.

House: For some reason Secretary of State Chuck Gray is being highlighted as a terrible candidate for the GOP here, and Inside Elections moved this race to Likely R.  I'm only mentioning because in the last sixth-year midterm of a Republican president, the Democrats inexplicably almost won a House seat in the Equality State, so it'd be funny if the same thing happened here.

The Lowdown

Governors: My end result here is a Democratic net gain of 4 seats, with them flipping Alaska, Georgia, Ohio, Nevada, & Iowa while the GOP gets back Kansas.  This would put the Democrats in the majority of the nation's governorships for the first time since the 2010 election (28D-22R), a 16-year drought.  Of the races, I'm feeling least confident about Nevada & Georgia, followed by Kansas, Alaska, & Wisconsin, in that order, but I do feel like the Democrats are headed for a majority.

Senate: Unthinkable a few months ago, I have not just a Senate majority for the Democrats on the books here, but one that even a John Fetterman party switch wouldn't hurt (52D-48R), with flips in Alaska, North Carolina, Ohio, Texas, & Maine (and not in reverse).  I'm not confident in this, and there was a part of me that wanted to go with a Republican in either Texas or Alaska (the two states I'm most nervous about overall), but that feels, again, like a Democrat being wimpy about what is clearly looking like a wave (but not a tsunami).  Deciding these things in a vacuum is the most authentic, and how I always do it, and will hold that again in 2026 even if I'm nervous.  Either of the AK/TX seats (honestly any other than North Carolina would surprise me) are vulnerable, but in the opposite direction, I feel good about our weaker candidates in Michigan & Minnesota getting through so honestly if all those are right but I still got a race wrong, I probably under-estimated the Democrats in places like Iowa, Kansas, or maybe even South Carolina or Nebraska, all of which could have a surprise in store (specifically IA or KS), though I can't bring myself to call them at the same time I'm already predicting blue results in Alaska & Texas.

House: Finally, the House.  As you can imagine, the easiest of the three to get a majority also goes blue for me.  If my counting is correct, I have it at D231-R204, for a net gain of 16 seats for the Democrats, and perhaps most notably a large enough margin Hakeem Jeffries should have no issue winning on the first ballot.  I don't think the majority is up for debate here, but it's possible I'm over-estimating with close races for the Democrats in places like IA-2, OH-9, & TX-35 definitely ones that could stay red, but on the flip side there's honestly a lot of room for the Democrats to gain on that number and maybe even push Republicans below 200 if they can find the magic combination in states like Florida, Texas, Kentucky, & Michigan (all of which I left flippable seats on the table).  Regardless, the last two years of Trump's presidency and times in politics will go out similarly to George W. Bush's...with a Congress that truly hates him.

The Betrayal of Haley Stevens

Michigan Reps. Haley Stevens (D?) and Mike Rogers (R)

This morning, Rep. Haley Stevens threw a gigantic wrench into one of the tightest Senate races of the cycle by endorsing Rep. Mike Rogers, and so we're going to do a hot-off-the-presses sort of blog post with my initial thoughts on this (spoiler alert: I'm fucking pissed off).

The Michigan Senate race has been the ugliest of the cycle (for the Democrats...Republicans in Texas can compete with this).  While Democrats had tough primaries in states like Texas, Wisconsin, & Minnesota, the party has largely moved past it, and to be honest-so had Michigan.  If you look at internal partisan numbers in most polls, Abdul El-Sayed, the Democratic nominee for the Senate, actually does better with Democrats than former Rep. Mike Rogers (the GOP nominee) does with Republicans.  This doesn't feed into preexisting belief systems about the race (the media more often portrays the Democrats as divided than the GOP in the Wolverine State), but it is in fact fact: El-Sayed has coalesced the Democratic Party behind him.  You've seen that in the way that major establishment figures like Barack Obama & Gretchen Whitmer have made a point of campaigning for him in the past few months since the primary.

The sole exception to this has been Rep. Haley Stevens (D), his main opponent in the primary (their other opponent, State Sen. Mallory McMorrow, has heartily backed El-Sayed and has campaigned for him).  Stevens had done a unity breakfast with El-Sayed after the primary, but otherwise had avoided campaigning with him.  This was not the case for people like McMorrow, Angie Craig (MN), and Francesca Hong (WI) who not only did the unity breakfast, but also made a point of campaigning for their opponents.  McMorrow has been all over the media for El-Sayed, Craig recently went door-knocking with Peggy Flanagan in Burnsville, and Hong has done events for David Crowley throughout the fall.  But Stevens has largely avoided El-Sayed, and offered tepid praise (though always still an endorsement)...

...that is until this morning.  This morning, Stevens appeared with Rogers at a Detroit church, and afterward issued a short video on social media declaring that she was going to be voting for Mike Rogers, not the Democratic nominee.  She said in the video that "education was on the ballot," and that this is "Phil Hart's seat"...side bar, and totally not the point but I'm going to make it the point for a second: this isn't Phil Hart's seat.  Phil Hart served in the Class 1 seat currently held by Elissa Slotkin presently...he never held the seat currently up on Tuesday (and now held by Gary Peters).  Really not a big thing, but if Stevens was going to betray her party, she at least could've checked Wikipedia first.  End side bar.

Stevens move is shocking, to say the least, and honestly feels a bit erratic.  As recently as Wednesday (yes, four days ago Wednesday) she said publicly in an interview on CNN that while her fiancee was voting for Rogers, she would be backing the entire Democratic ticket.  Her exact quote was "I still very much want our Democratic nominee, his name is Abdul, to win this race."  Rep. Jamie Raskin, one of Stevens' colleagues went on Meet the Press this morning and stated he'd spoken with Stevens, and she had every intention of voting the full Democratic ticket.  For the record, I don't believe that Raskin lied here-I feel confident that Stevens did, in fact, assure him that she was voting this way, and honestly I will admit I'm getting some Nancy Mace vibes from Stevens that feel very odd in the past couple of weeks (which also aligned with the announcement of her engagement) given how inconsistent she's been in her public behavior.

The fallout of this feels questionable.  As I said, El-Sayed has overwhelming Democratic support and while he's running behind Jocelyn Benson, he's led in virtually every poll for months.  Stevens insinuates she's just acting as one in her video, but honestly...she might be.  Statements this morning rallying behind El-Sayed were issued by everyone from Chuck Schumer to the Congressional Black Caucus.  I don't think this moves the needle to Rogers, and if it does, I don't think this was what did it...but I do think that the media (and the Left) will blame her for it if Rogers wins, which honestly feels calculus that Stevens appears to be too foolish to have factored into this decision (or she doesn't care).

Stevens has not hurt El-Sayed, but she has definitely hurt the case for moderate Democrats going forward in uniting the party.  Never mind that most moderates who lost acted like Angie Craig this cycle, endorsing their primary opponent.  Never mind that someone like, say, John Fetterman was the candidate not of the establishment (that was Conor Lamb), but of the right (not to mention Bernie Sanders supporters like Graham Platner, Nina Turner, & Tulsi Gabbard who have had similar issues with backing the Democratic nominee).  Stevens has fed into a preexisting paranoia that moderate Democrats won't welcome the Left into the party, and made it reality.  What she did was wrong (I think Jeffries should kick her out of the caucus on Wednesday, and I never want her to be on a Democratic ticket again...I half wonder if she'll run for her old seat as a Republican now in 2028), but the damage is going to hurt candidates like her way more than it'll hurt El-Sayed.

Election Night Guide: Ohio through Tennessee

I am doing a final predictions series for the November 3rd general elections.  If you've missed previous articles, they're listed right here: Alabama-Arkansas, California-Hawaii, Iowa-Louisiana, Maine-Montana, Nebraska-North Dakota

Dr. Amy Acton (D-OH)

Ohio

Governor: The Ohio governor's race, up until a few days ago, felt like one where the Democrats were probably going to win the race by a slim margin, maybe even seeing it go down in the final stretch as the increasingly Republican nature of the Buckeye State cost them.  But after Vivek Ramaswamy (R) launched the worst self-inflicted October surprise I've seen in a while, that's all out.  Some Republicans have claimed the ad featuring Dr. Amy Acton's (D) mother refusing to endorse her will play well with low-context voters, but they're deluding themselves (we've seen Ohio Republicans like Mike DeWine & Jon Husted criticize the ad for a reason), given that Acton's mother lost custody of both she and her brother after it was revealed that Acton's stepfather (her mother's husband) had raped her repeatedly.  Ramaswamy's refusal to back down on this attack proves how truly heartless he is, and I expect an eleventh hour rally from Democrats to lock in for Acton, who will win a race she probably would've won anyway (but now with more ardent admirers & a bigger national following). D+1

Senate: Ramaswamy, though, has put the rest of the ticket at risk, forcing nominees to choose between him and common decency (and in both cases, potentially risk alienating voters on the finish line).  This could impact the Senate race, pitting former Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) against incumbent (appointed) Sen. Jon Husted.  I was honestly toying with dropping this race for the Democrats as I have been to this dance with Ohio before, and Brown has not locked into 50%+1 as well as Acton in the post-Labor Day polls.  But I also think he's leading by more than he did when he lost in 2024 and it's a more favorable environment, and I think he'll D+1 this race.  This sets up a few notes.  First, if (as predicted) Brown wins, he'll become a senator pretty much immediately given that appointed senators have to vacate seats for elected senators right away, giving Chuck Schumer a vote for the lame duck.  Second, Brown will become the first person since Slade Gorton in 1988 to lose a Senate race as an incumbent and then win a subsequent race (it's very rare-before that it was Howard Metzenbaum in 1976...if you want to know the full history we actually did an article about it last year).  And lastly, because it's an appointed seat, Brown will need to run for reelection right away in 2028; I assume he'll do that, but it'll be a much harder road, and will risk him repeating 2024 rather than 2026 (but that's a problem for the future...right now the focus is on a midterm win, which I think he gets).

House: Ohio's redrawn House districts really won't do much in the midterms.  Greg Landsman & Emilia Sykes might be vulnerable in a red environment, but this isn't one, and while there is the possibility that Mike Carey and/or Mike Turner (the Ohio Mike's) go down, that's another Blue Tsunami situation that I can't pull the trigger on (late-breaking House polling, though, is giving me pause on if a blue tsunami could be in the works).  That leaves two seats that I think are solid bets for flipping.  The first is the 7th district, where Rep. Max Miller's allegations of abuse (he has been accused of throwing boiling water at his ex-wife, of breaking his 2-year-old daughter's collarbone, and had a restraining order put against him by former White House Press Secretary Stephanie Grisham, one of Miller's ex-girlfriends).  This is a Trump +11 district, so that might not all matter, but I think it will, and City Councilman Brian Poindexter (D) will win as a result.  The other seat is pitting Rep. Marcy Kaptur (D), the longest-serving woman in the US House, against former State Rep. Derek Merrin.  I have had Kaptur losing the entire year-her moderate politics make it harder for Democrats to rally around her in the way they might Brown, and this is a pretty red district (Trump won it by nearly 11-points).  But the national environment, and the blue-friendly backing of Ohio probably being a little stronger thanks to Acton/Brown...I'm going to go against what I initially thought here and think Kaptur barely hangs on in this race, which results in a D+1 (I do that with a lot of trepidation and little confidence, it's just a gut feeling).

Rep. Kevin Hern (R-OK)

Oklahoma

Governor: With Gov. Kevin Stitt retiring (and quite unpopular), some national organizations have thrown cash at this race unexpectedly between former State Sen. Mike Mazzei (R) and House Minority Leader Cyndi Munson.  I will note that this is an under-polled race, and in a Blue Tsunami it's the sort of random race that you'd look at: Munson is the rare A-tier candidate in Oklahoma, this is a state that has struggled disproportionately due to tariff & gas prices, and as a rule if a red state hasn't had a Democratic governor in a couple of decades (and isn't South Dakota) you should watch it in a wave as sometimes things surprise (mostly because voters eventually hit a breaking point with public education cuts).  I don't expect this to flip (or be that close), but I am watching it is what I'm saying.

Senate: Sen. Markwayne Mullin became Homeland Security Secretary in March (succeeding Kristi Noem), and now-Sen. Alan Armstrong (R) is ineligible to run again due to a quirk in Oklahoma election laws that don't allow appointed senators to run for reelection.  As a result, we'll get a new senator in Rep. Kevin Hern (R) when he takes this seat.

House: Similar to the Governor's race, in a Blue Tsunami you'd probably watch Rep. Stephanie Bice's (R) race not because she'll beat educator Jena Nelson, but because the margin could get interesting.

Gov. Tina Kotek (D-OR)

Oregon

Governor: One of the few Democratic-held seats on the map that feels genuinely at risk of flipping, Gov. Tina Kotek (D) is wildly unpopular and honestly if it were a redder race, I'd assume she'd be taken down by State Sen. Christine Drazan, who ran in 2022, and polling shows in striking distance of victory.  At some point this seat is going to have to flip-the Democrats have had a series of unpopular governors, and even in blue states, that just doesn't hold forever.  But I don't think it'll be this year, particularly with Trump in office and Drazan making some missteps (what the hell is she doing in the closing days of the campaign on Laura Ingraham in a state where she'll genuinely need thousands of Obama/Clinton/Biden/Harris voters to win?).  Dems hold, but watch this space for 2030.

Senate: Truly wish Jeff Merkley had chosen 2026 to retire as it'd have been nice to have the House bench bottleneck break in a cycle where none of the seats were at risk of flipping, but alas, he held on (and will win another six years).

Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick (R-PA)

Pennsylvania

Governor: Josh Shapiro (D) is going to win by margins we have not even seen before in his reelection campaign against Treasurer Stacy Garrity.  Seriously-what was she thinking choosing 2026 to run a sure-loss campaign and not just waiting four years?

House: Pennsylvania is not billed nearly as often as states like Ohio, Texas, & Iowa as consequential for the 2026 congressional majorities because it doesn't have a sexy Senate race to headline, but four crucial Republican-held seats are going to be huge determinants in whether or not Hakeem Jeffries gets the Speaker's gavel.  I think of the bunch the 7th district, where Union President Bob Brooks seems on track to best Rep. Ryan Mackenzie, is the top of the list, but close behind appears to be the 10th district, where Rep. Scott Perry (who nearly lost in 2024) will be taken down in a rematch by newscaster Janelle Stelson.  I also think we're looking at a win for the Democrats in the 10th district, where Scranton Mayor Paige Cognetti (D) will best Rep. Rob Bresnahan, possibly the only Democrat who could win this red seat (I think she'll be a tough hold in 2024), but she'll win regardless.  Which leaves us with Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick, the consistently popular Republican who is one of only three Republicans holding House seats won by Kamala Harris last cycle.  Bucks County Commissioner Bob Harvie has run an excellent campaign, and honestly this would be the only cycle Fitzpatrick probably would ever go down...but I can't see it yet.  Or at least, I won't predict it yet-at least one Harris Republican will remain in the next Congress. D+3

Rhode Island

Governor: The excitement in this race already happened earlier this year when Helena Foulkes, a corporate executive, beat the sitting Gov. Dan McKee (D) in a primary, and will soon succeed him as governor.

Senate: Jack Reed, a 36-year congressional fixture, will win reelection, and may well get back the Senate Armed Services gavel at this rate if Democrats can break through in the Senate.

Dr. Annie Andrews (D-SC)

South Carolina

Governor: Weirdly, the open gubernatorial election here has gotten absolutely no political attention as Attorney General Alan Wilson gets a promotion.

Senate: This cannot be said for the Senate race, pitting appointed-Sen. Darline Graham (R), the sister of the late Sen. Lindsey Graham, against Dr. Annie Andrews, a pediatrician & 2022 House candidate.  Andrews started this race as a reputable loser option, the kind of respectable candidate who maybe gets endorsed by Emily's List but doesn't go further & makes the party look okay for putting forward a competent adult, but she's been able to breakthrough mostly on the back of Graham's truly, aggressively bad political skills (which are apparently not inherited).  It's clear at this point that Graham is coasting solely on hard-core Republicans not being able to vote for a Democrat, as no one really seems to like her or think she's capable of doing this job (and almost certainly is only going to serve one full term).  Polling here has been close, but weirdly limited (for all of the polls in Florida, Ohio, & Texas, my kingdom for some pollster with an A-rating to head to the Palmetto State).  I don't think Andrews can win, but I do think this is a race that, in a Blue Tsunami, we should be paying attention to, and if it's not called in the first half hour of election night the Democrats might have dropped the ball here.

House: The same can be said for the 1st district, which pitches County Councilwoman Jenny Honeycutt (R) against Vice Admiral Nancy Lacore (D) after Nancy Mace's failed bid for governor.  Either way, I'll be glad to see Mace gone from the halls of Congress (her last few years in the House have been hard to watch), and I assume it'll be Honeycutt replacing her though there seems to be some momentum for Lacore.

South Dakota

Governor: Gov. Larry Rhoden fought off contenders from both his left and right to get the nomination for the GOP, and that's the general election in the Mount Rushmore State.

Senate: The Democrats are once again trying the "run a moderate Independent to avoid the party label" option with Lt. Colonel Brian Bengs (I), but I don't think it's going to work as well as it did in Nebraska, mostly because Sen. Mike Rounds (R) isn't close to as conservative as someone like a Pete Ricketts.

Tennessee

Governor: Like her colleague Amy Klobuchar, Sen. Marsha Blackburn will become the first woman ever elected in her state and will also get to appoint her successor (anyone know the gossip on whom she'll select?).

Senate: Sen. Bill Hagerty will easily win a second term here after declining a run against Blackburn in the gubernatorial primary.

House: A mid-decade gerrymander has ousted Rep. Steve Cohen, and will mean that Tennessee will have no Democratic representation in Congress probably for the first time since the founding of the party (by Andrew Jackson, a Tennessean).  Truly heinous corruption of democracy given how blue Memphis & Nashville are, and now don't have a voice. R+1

Saturdays with the Stars: Sigourney Weaver

Each month of 2026 we are looking at an actor or actress who found their fame in action films, fighting bad guys & saving the day.  Last month, we talked about Tom Cruise, oftentimes billed as the "Last Great Movie Star."  This month, we're going to make sure that "actress" intro I've said to every one of these biographies isn't just name-checking.  Despite action films being largely a male-dominated field, we're going to talk about a woman who made her initial fame in action films, but still managed to have a really impressive career as a dramatic performer, gaining Oscar attention while headlining several big-name franchises.  This month's star is Sigourney Weaver.

Many of the men we've talked about this year had rough childhoods, ones that it's hard to see how they exactly got to Hollywood.  That is not the case for Sigourney Weaver, born Susan Alexandra Weaver, whose mother was a character actress (who made films with Alfred Hitchcock, Bette Davis, & Edward G. Robinson) and her father was Pat Weaver, the president of NBC, who was the initial creator of The Today Show, The Tonight Show, and who ended up saving Meet the Press from cancellation.  She got her unusual name from The Great Gatsby, an erudite moniker that would complement her Yale education.  While at school, she'd originate a role in Stephen Sondheim's The Frogs, where she'd play opposite Meryl Streep, whom she'd have a friendly professional rivalry with in her early career.

That rivalry led to what would end up being Weaver's first really big role: as Ellen Ripley in Alien.  Streep was considered for the part, but had to turn it down as she was still recovering from the death of her boyfriend John Cazale, and so Weaver got the film, and it would end up becoming one of the biggest movies of the year (it's worth noting that the biggest film of the year, Kramer vs. Kramer, not only starred Streep but won her an Oscar, a distinction Weaver still hasn't achieved).  For decades, Weaver would alternate between big-screen starring roles and character work in smaller dramas.

As a result, it feels to a degree that Weaver might be cheating to include this year.  With the very big exceptions of the Alien and Avatar franchises, Weaver has rarely had major roles in action films, and is probably better known as a dramatic performer than an action star.  One could argue I should be picking someone like Linda Hamilton, Angelina Jolie, or Michelle Yeoh, all of whom have been parts of more varied action films, for this distinction.  But I am picking Weaver because I think she's a fascinating prototype of the women who came after-because it's almost impossible to imagine any of those women getting the opportunities that they did without her Ripley suiting up first.

Jack Reacher (2012)

Film: Jack Reacher (2012)

Stars: Tom Cruise, Rosamund Pike, Richard Jenkins, Werner Herzog, David Oyelowo, Robert Duvall

Director: Christopher McQuarrie

Oscar History: No nominations

Snap Judgment Ranking: 3/5 stars

Each month, as part of our 2026 Saturdays with the Stars series, we are looking at the men & women who created the Boom!-Pow!-Bang! action films that would come to dominate the Blockbuster Era of cinema.  This month, our focus is on Tom Cruise: click here to learn more about Mr. Cruise (and why I picked him), and click here for other Saturdays with the Stars articles.

While Tom Cruise peaked as a movie star in the 1990's & early 2000's, he's never really ended his tenure as a headliner, to the point where many have referred to him as "the Last Movie Star" (a title the cinema-adoring Cruise has downplayed and actively said he doesn't want).  But it's worth noting that Cruise, post roughly The Last Samurai/Collateral, when his very public courtship and then divorce from Katie Holmes threatened to overtake his manicured public perception in a way that not even his connections to Scientology was able to do, has largely focused on films that are incredibly "safe."  Gone are the political statements of films like Born on the Fourth of July or the avant garde thrillers like Vanilla Sky.  It's hard to honestly recognize, even in the era of Digger (for good or bad, his most provocative film in decades), someone taking as big of a swing as Eyes Wide Shut.  Mostly, Cruise, once clearly on a different track than the rest of the action stars of his era, has largely joined Arnold & Sly as a man who forever was making shoot-em-up pics, and legacy sequels.  Since 2004, we've had a new installment of Top Gun and countless additional Mission Impossible pictures (eight in all).  But he did do something those guys couldn't in the 21st Century: launch a new action series with the Jack Reacher pictures, which is how we'll close out our time with him.

(Spoilers Ahead) Jack Reacher starts extremely provocatively (and in a slam to what's to come, with its most interesting scene) as a shooter (whose face is obscured to the point where it's impossible to identify the actor) shoots a few people at random from long range.  The police arrest a man named James Barr, whose fingerprint is on a coin that was dropped in the parking garage the shots came from, and he pleads "GET JACK REACHER" on a legal pad, which is precisely what his attorney Helen Rodin (Pike), assigned while he's comatose, does.  Initially Jack (Cruise), a mysterious man with virtually no paper trail, declines to help the alleged shooter, whom he has a complicated relationship with, but eventually does help, and we learn through Helen's investigations into the families that one of the women shot was not shot at random at all, and the other murders were a cover-up for the death.  We also learn that someone, potentially even Helen's own father, is helping to frame the innocent man (though it turns out its his assistant, played by David Oyelowo).

The film, like a lot of Cruise's late-stage action flicks, is pretty standard issue if still enjoyable.  Cruise plays a strong, silent type who is clearly modeled at least in part on Ethan Hunt, someone unknowable and impossibly savvy, and he's good.  I liked the chemistry he had with Pike, though their relationship does not turn romantic in this movie (I haven't seen the sequel yet to know if she's even in it).  Side note, by the way-watching Cruise's films this month, it's striking how many of his films have him paired with attractive leading woman whom he never ends up with romantically.  Born on the Fourth of July, A Few Good Men, and Jack Reacher all have potential love interests for him that he never ends up with, and this is on top of largely asexual action flicks like Minority Report, War of the Worlds, and Mission Impossible where most of his love interests are either dead or nonexistent.

Cruise still works today, though much of his work in the past few years seems to have been him saying goodbye to Ethan Hunt & Maverick in legacy sequels.  One wonders if Digger will open a new, final chapter of his career where the 64-year-old boy wonder has to graduate into the elder statesmen roles he used to stand alongside for Paul Newman & Robert Duvall.  Next month we will talk about our penultimate action star for our seventh season, an actor who became synonymous with two major action franchises, but unlike a lot of the men we've talked about this season she would have an equally impressive (and lauded) career as a dramatic actress.

Election Night Guide: Nebraska through North Dakota

I am doing a final predictions series for the November 3rd general elections.  If you've missed previous articles, they're listed right here: Alabama-Arkansas, California-Hawaii, Iowa-Louisiana, Maine-Montana

Activist Denise Powell (D-NE)

Nebraska

Governor: The Democrats put up a decent candidate to face Gov. Jim Pillen in State Sen. Lynne Walz, who has done all right, and will probably post the best numbers for a Democrat in this state since Ben Nelson in 1994, but that won't be enough, even in a solid blue year.

Senate: If there's a flip statewide in Nebraska this cycle it's in the Senate, with Dan Osborn (I), who greatly outperformed Kamala Harris in 2024 against Sen. Deb Fischer.  If you go off the polling aggregate here, Sen. Pete Ricketts is extremely vulnerable, only leading in most aggregates by about a point.  But Democrats are not giving this the kind of attention they are other races, and I don't think it's because Osborn is an independent (I think it's because they know this is a reach-too-far).  I think Ricketts hangs on, though I'll be honest-morbid curiosity has this as one of the upsets I'm most hoping for, mostly because Ricketts has said for two consecutive cycles he won't caucus with either party, and I'd be fascinated to see how that works as there's no real modern precedent for it, and I'm a political nerd who'd like to know the answer to how that would happen.

House: Possibly the likeliest flip of the cycle (toward the Democrats), even if the GOP had kept Rep. Don Bacon (R) in the 2nd district, it would've been a stretch.  Without him, it seems impossible that Democratic activist Denise Powell won't end up as one of Hakeem Jeffries first votes for a majority in January. D+1

Gov. Joe Lombardo (R-NV)

Nevada

Governor: Nevada is one of the few states where you can actually get a solid read on who will win based on early vote, so reserving the right to change this, but despite the Democratic wave, I think Gov. Joe Lombardo should be able to over-perform the congressional ballot here and win reelection.  I will note two things here: 1) in an actual wave, close races will frequently go to the lesser candidate, which in my opinion is AG Aaron Ford (who has not run a campaign that rose above the middle, which was needed against Lombardo) and 2) I am keeping a very close eye on the Lieutenant Governor race here, as Nevada is one of the few states that they elect them separately.  Given the likelihood that Lombardo runs against Catherine Cortez Masto in 2028 if there's a Republican LG, it'd behoove Dems to win at least the back half of the ticket as part of the wave. (John Note: I did, in fact, change my mind here based on the early voting in Nevada, and think that Ford will win...this was edited before the election so it still counts for my final prediction D+1).

House: Every cycle there's one longshot race that catches my eye.  In my opinion, NV-2 is that race.  Pretty much every person seems to think this flirts between Lean/Likely Republican, but it has all of the recipes of an upset.  It's a seat Trump won by less than 15-points (thanks entirely to it having Washoe County as part of its makeup), and I do think there's the real possibility that it flips.  But I haven't seen the numbers I think I'd need to see to safely guess that, so I'm going to skip it (for now).

Rep. Chris Pappas (D-NH)

New Hampshire

Governor: Gov. Kelly Ayotte (R), after going down during the 2016 Trump loss in New Hampshire but surviving in the 2024 Trump loss, should be fine running for reelection.  I wouldn't be surprised if she starts getting more national press as the 2028 primaries heat up.

Senate: Rep. Chris Pappas (D) drew a decent opponent in former Sen John Sununu (R), but he got the right cycle to be kind of a middling, backbench congressman who pushes for the Senate.  He'll win (and become the first openly gay man to serve in the Senate), but I do wonder what he'll be like in office given his campaign has left something to be desired.

New Jersey

Senate: Sen. Cory Booker at this point is probably never going to be president (though I give it 50/50 odds he runs in 2028), and one wonders if (at age 57) he might have waited a bit too long to try and fight Brian Schatz for Democratic Senate Leader.  But as it is, he'll surely win another term to sort through it.

House: I will admit I don't buy the "Jeff van Drew might lose the 2nd this cycle" buzz, and Nellie Pou (after the 9th shockingly went red in 2024) will have no issue given the environment.  But the big news here is Tom Kean, Jr. (R), whose bizarre public behavior that was later revealed to be him being hospitalized for clinical depression, still for some reason ran for reelection, and will lose this swingy (Trump won in 2024, as did Mikie Sherrill a year later) district to National Guard Officer Rebecca Bennett. D+1

New Mexico

Governor: With Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham (D) retiring, it seems certain that we will have the first Native American woman to ever run a state with former Interior Secretary & Rep. Deb Haaland winning the position.  This will be only the second time (after Massachusetts in 2022) that an all-female gubernatorial ticket will win (Haaland is running with Public Lands Commissioner Stephanie Garcia Richard.

Senate: So far Sen. Ben Ray Lujan (who before he ran for the upper chamber I had pegged as a possible successor to Nancy Pelosi) hasn't made many waves in his first term, but will still get a second.

House: Rep. Gabe Vasquez (D) will probably go down in there's ever a proper red wave again (maybe 2030), but this is not the cycle he loses the 2nd.

Officer Christopher Gallant (D-NY)

New York

Governor: Few governors have come into their own quite like Gov. Kathy Hochul, who had a tough scrape four years ago but will cruise this cycle, has.  I do think we need to look at the Empire State long-term, as the upstate trends here aren't great, but for now it's not a concern.

House: I also think long-term trends in Long Island need to be examined a bit, but both Tom Suozzi & Laura Gillen should be okay with the blue wave at their back (we need Suozzi to stay in office as long as possible at this point as this seat is moving away from the Democrats).  There is some evidence that NY-21 could flip this cycle, given that Rep. Elise Stefanik has left it open, and honestly if there's a tsunami this is the type of seat that posts a one-term wonder.  I will be watching the results of the NY-1 race mostly out of curiosity, as Christopher Gallant (an absurdly handsome national guard officer & volunteer fireman who also has a history of modeling for BDSM photos), but he's not going to win.  The only race I think is truly at risk is NY-17, one of only three seats won by Kamala Harris that the Republicans hold right now in the House.  Democrats & Republicans alike hold two-term Rep. Mike Lawler's political skills in high-esteem, but I don't think he's special enough to beat back a wave, and so I'll go D+1 with Iraq War veteran Cait Conley ousting him (I wouldn't be surprised if Lawler seeks a rematch in 2028 if he goes down though).

Gov. Roy Cooper (D-NC)

North Carolina

Senate: One of the most striking things about this cycle's Senate campaign is that there's only one absolute, no arguments flip on the calendar.  With Sen. Thom Tillis (R) retiring after two terms, the DSCC got exactly the right candidate in former Gov. Roy Cooper (D), who is cruising to reelection in this seat and will get Democrats their fastest D+1 in the upper chamber. 

House: In what will surely go down as a great example of a dummymander, a mid-decade map drawn to oust Rep. Don Davis (D in the 1st) not only will not oust Davis, it will also take with it the 11th district, where the retirement of scandal-plagued Rep. Chuck Edwards (R) seemed like the Republicans had honestly avoided disaster with State Rep. Jennifer Balkcom, but instead it appears Balkcom is going to lose (Republicans have already started to triage the race) in favor of businessman Jamie Ager. D+1

North Dakota

House: This race isn't actually competitive, but North Dakota has no other races & it felt weird to skip it, so kudos to Julie Fedorchak, the first woman to represent North Dakota in the House, for getting another term.

Election Night Guide: Maine through Montana

I am doing a final predictions series for the November 3rd general elections.  If you've missed previous articles, they're listed right here: Alabama-Arkansas, California-Hawaii, Iowa-Louisiana

Sen. Susan Collins (R-ME)

Maine

Governor: The Maine gubernatorial race is the only case where we're clearly getting a candidate that pretty much everyone is riding the Democratic wave to victory.  Former House Speaker Hannah Pingree is a lock to succeed Gov. Janet Mills, the first time a Democrat has succeeded another Democrat in Augusta since before the Civil War.

Senate: Like all Democrats, I am haunted by the victory of Susan Collins in 2020 against Sara Gideon.  If you look far enough back on this blog (there are over 4400 published articles here, but I promise if you really want to find it to say "John was wrong" you can), you'll find that I predicted Gideon to win that seat one of three seats I got wrong in 2020 along with Georgia & Iowa for the curious (one of my worst Senate years...last cycle I only missed Pennsylvania).  But each election is unique, and my belief that Collins could only go down during a presidential midterm with a wildly unpopular Republican in office is...well, this is the time to do it.  I do not that think that Senate President Troy Jackson is a particularly good candidate (he is certainly not the best candidate to try and beat Collins), and I would've preferred someone like Pingree instead.  I also believe that Graham Platner (whose name, I truly hope, I don't have to bring up again on this blog after my Wednesday recap) would've lost by a sizable margin (conversely, I think Mills probably would be up by now...the mood of the spring did not match the mood of the Autumn close of a campaign).  But I think Collins' margin in 2020 was inflated by a lack of RCV (she probably only won by 3-points rather than 8-points given third party voters), and Trump is wildly unpopular.  She also has run a pretty weak campaign (by her usually impeccable standards), and the repeated debates with Jackson were a mistake.   So we're repeating the prediction (but hopefully not history) and going D+1.

House: On the flip side, the retirement of Rep. Jared Golden (who would be cruising to a Senate seat if he'd been interested) and the choice of the more left-leaning Auditor Matt Dunlap over State Sen. Joe Baldacci feels still like one of the more unforced errors of the cycle for the Republicans.  Dunlap has run a better campaign than most in this scenario (better, indeed, than Jackson and certainly better than some Senate candidates we're going to get to later in these M states), and lord knows the GOP made a misstep in picking Gov. Paul LePage as their nominee...but I don't think it'll be enough, especially given Collins will be winning this district handily. R+1

Maryland

Governor: Wes Moore cruises to reelection, and pretty much instantly will start a presidential exploratory committee after being sworn in for a second term.

Massachusetts

Governor: While the Bay State semi-frequently elects Republican governors (I'd be willing to bet they randomly do it again in 2030), they don't oust incumbent Democrats, so Maura Healey should be fine as she seeks a second term.

Senate: Sen. Ed Markey has had two consecutive tough primaries, but this cycle he'll get yet another glide into another term.  If he serves all six years, he'll most likely become the third-longest serving member in Congressional history, behind only John Dingell & Robert Byrd.

Dr. Abdul El-Sayed (D-MI)

Michigan

Governor: Gov. Gretchen Whitmer's presidential hopes are somewhat questionable (her early appearance with Donald Trump, photographed covering her face with a clipboard, became a warning sign for other Democrats, and it will need to be addressed if she runs...I still hope she's on the ticket), but she will do something few Democratic governors seeking the White House can claim: hand her swing seat governor's mansion off to another Democrat (in this case Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson).

Senate: It is perpetually a pity that Whitmer didn't run for the Senate (lord how I wish that was how this turned out).  Or that the Democrats had sided with State Sen. Mallory McMorrow or Rep. Haley Stevens.  But the party backed Dr. Abdul El-Sayed as their nominee in 2026 for the purple state of Michigan.  I'll be frank, the El-Sayed campaign has been a pain-in-the-ass the past few months (and that has little to do with his left-leaning politics), with his connections to controversial liberal podcaster Hasan Piker coming into focus, as well as his instance on a frat boy bravado that doesn't play well in a midwestern state, frequently making videos pointedly highlighting his physique and leaning in on TikTok trends...it's all been a mess, particularly against a relatively inoffensive (i.e. boring) Republican like Rep. Mike Rogers.  Chuck Schumer has spent countless millions bailing El-Sayed out (yes, Ayanna Pressley, the establishment has moved heaven-and-earth for him to win this race, and saying otherwise is just a lie & only helps Republicans), and I think it will pay off.  I also think that if Democrats end up within a point or so of winning in Iowa, Ohio, Kansas, or Nebraska but ultimately fall short, I will NEVER forgive El-Sayed who should've had this locked up by Labor Day like Chris Pappas was clearly tracking to do in New Hampshire.

House: I should also add Kristen McDonald Rivet to the list of people we should've run for Senate, as she also would've won, and probably we could've kept her Trump-won House seat even without her.  The most obvious Republican seat to go would be MI-7, where Rep. Tom Barrett (a first-termer) is facing off against a far-left Democrat (William Lawrence) who the party inexplicably nominated when two other candidates split the vote (Michigan, let me introduce you to my friend Ranked-Choice Voting please), and I think Lawrence is too toxic to win a swing seat, even in a wave (Alan Grayson would argue otherwise, but I still think it's too much).  I also think that Rep. Bill Huizenga is probably going to best State Sen. Sean McCann (I just don't see the Democrats flipping this, though it'll be close), giving the party only D+1 thanks to attorney Christina Hines flipping the 10th district, a tough hold but one that she'll take without John James in the race.

LG Peggy Flanagan (D-MN)

Minnesota

Governor: Given how badly the ticket has proven in the Gopher State this cycle, I think that both 1) Tim Walz retiring was a blessing in disguise and 2) Amy Klobuchar is going to get her trifecta as a result of leading the ticket.  She'll be missed in the Senate though given her focused history on results-based  legislation passing.

Senate: I'll be real-I cannot remember the last time that a Democratic Senate candidate has disappointed me as much as LG Peggy Flanagan (in any other cycle AES would be my least favorite...this cycle he's a distant silver).  Flanagan has run a campaign as if she's running for election in Maryland or Vermont, embracing far-left figures and controversial party leaders alike, and honestly doing a dreadful job of appealing to out-state voters (focusing on issues that feel exclusively for those who live-or-work in Minneapolis and regularly attend the Guthrie...which I'm aware describes me, and I'm still not happy).  Her fundraising, while other Democrats like Annie Andrews & Adam Hamilton are raising 5, 6, even 10x as much as the GOP, has been pathetic (Tafoya outraised her in Q3), and her poll numbers have been close.  I suspect at the end of the day she will win, but it says something that she almost certainly would've lost in 2024, and that she has made it impossible for Klobuchar to pick another progressive to the other seat, as Flanagan has proven it's far too risky to trust one.  She's better than Tafoya (I voted for her a couple of weeks ago already), but I can't remember the last time I was so disappointed in a congressional candidate I had to help elect.

House: I know some see the 1st or 2nd districts as theoretically competitive, but I don't, and I only listed them for posterity.

District Attorney Scott Colom (D-MS)

Mississippi

Senate: There are some (including Chuck Schumer) who seem to think that the Mississippi Senate race between Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith (R) and District Attorney Scott Colom (D) is competitive, and maybe even winnable...but those are two things in Mississippi that make this impossible.  The Magnolia State is famously partisan along racial lines...if white voters in Mississippi voted even as Democratic as white voters in red states like Ohio or Iowa, it would have voted for a Democratic President every time this century.  In order for a Democrat to win here, they'd need to have unusually strong Black turnout and at least some cracks in the white voter coalition...the former might be possible, the latter isn't.  I don't see Hyde-Smith losing.

Missouri

House: Emanuel Cleaver already won the "cool head" award this cycle, not dropping out when it looked like he was headed to gerrymandering disaster, and it paid off with another term after the Missouri Supreme Court stopped the redraw.  This leaves Rep. Ann Wagner (R) as the only incumbent in a challenge.  This race on-paper feels more competitive than most are treating it.  Trump only won this seat by 8-points in 2024 (I've predicted Democrats to win seats that are redder than that already in this series), which makes me wonder if Wellman wasn't able to capitalize on the late change in district lines enough, and Wagner is winning thanks to sheer luck.  Whatever the case, I don't see her losing unless there's a tsunami (and, like I've said repeatedly, I don't think there's a tsunami on the books).

Sam Forstag (D-MT)

Montana

Senate: It will be forgotten, but shouldn't be, that Sen. Steve Daines last-minute effort to try and select his successor in former US Attorney Kurt Alme (R) was one of the shadiest things I've seen in modern American politics (Chuy Garcia, you're right alongside him there).  This ended up being genius, though, as it prevented someone like Gov. Steve Bullock getting into the race, and Alme got through without a far right MAGA challenger that might have turned this into another Kansas.  Though it does appear that University of Montana President Seth Bodnar is in a better spot than he was a few weeks ago, having to share a ticket with Lt. Colonel Alani Bankhead under the Democratic banner makes a pickup here impossible.

House: Throughout these articles, I alternate between "I'm not siding with Democratic momentum enough" and "I am ignoring the natural tendencies of these districts," which (as I pointed out in my first article, links above) is honestly the biggest question for Election Night as the two cannot exist in the same Schrodinger's box, and one I don't have confidence in one way or the other & will find out with the rest of you on Tuesday.  A good illustration of that is in Montana, where smokejumper Sam Forstag (D) has run an A+ campaign against radio host Aaron Flint (R), and this district is just close enough that you could argue a Democrat could win here (Jon Tester did just that in 2024, even as he lost statewide).  But I just can't picture a Trump +12 district going to a Democrat, even under these circumstances, and so I'm in with Flint (as it were).