OVP: Supporting Actress (2000)

OVP: Best Supporting Actress (2000)

The Nominees Were...

Judi Dench, Chocolat

Marcia Gay Harden, Pollock

Kate Hudson, Almost Famous

Frances McDormand, Almost Famous

Julie Walters, Billy Elliot

My Thoughts: Surprises aren't really a thing in the Oscar acting races anymore, not like they once were.  Today, you might go in knowing you're going to win (Robert Downey Jr. this year), knowing you might win (Lily Gladstone this year), or knowing you won't win (Sterling K. Brown this year).  But there was a time where technically anyone could win, and what a thrill that was (the real ones will know what I just did).  In 2000, we had one of the bigger upsets in the acting races we've encountered in our My Ballots, when Marcia Gay Harden pulled off victory over far likelier contenders that year.

Let's start with Marcia.  For those who don't know, in 2000, you could've made a serious argument that Harden was in fifth place even among the nominees before she went on to win.  She got her victory through being just that good.  Her Lee Krasner is a fascinating composite onscreen.  We see the ways that Harden navigates being a wife, a female painter (in a time where they got ignored), and someone who understood the financial opportunity that came with marrying one of the great artistic minds of the 20th Century.  Adding in a fantastic bit of accent work, Harden becomes very hard to beat if you actually see her movie.

That said, her chief competition at the time was impressive too.  One of her biggest competitors was Kate Hudson, who roared into movie stardom (just like her mom) with Almost Famous, and like her mom, got an Oscar nomination to prove it.  I think people's attitudes toward Hudson in the years that followed (where she hit stardom, but not superstardom and never did something this good again) have clouded their tastes on this performance, which is really wonderful.  She embodies the beautiful hipster, trying to cling to those who are actually experiencing fame, knowing (but never showing) that this will only last while her youth continues.  It's a tragic, but very real performance, and the soul of the film.

The other competitor for the win was Judi Dench.  Just two years after her Oscar win, she was a serious threat for victory in 2000 for Chocolat (and easily the closest that Miramax came to getting that film a statue).  Her work here is pleasant.  It'd become the prototype for the "sweet old woman" roles that Dench would milk as a proper movie star in the next couple of decades, but it hadn't been established yet so it feels much fresher.  I do think that this isn't worthy of Oscar, even if it's good acting-it's a bit too paper thin, especially in her character's bigger moments.

Julie Walters is another renowned British character actress who made it into this field, and her work in Billy Elliot is also solid.  I will admit to a soft spot for both of these actresses (I'll watch anything they do), but I don't think that Walters is quite as good as, say, her costar Jamie Bell in this film.  She gives us a lot of what we'd expect from Walters (a surly disposition masking a kindly heart), but it doesn't give us quite enough more.  I wanted more hints at how she missed her own opportunities, how she also dreamed of getting out, to add more dimension to her character.  But, again, a fine piece of work that it's hard to get mad about Oscar citing.

Frances McDormand is arguably the best actress of these five women, but I do think she has the least to do in her nominated performance, and more importantly, the least impact on her film.  Her concerned mother has some humor which McDormand can ring, but it comes across as a bit one-note, or at the very least sharp as she imbues the "anxious mother who doesn't understand" character with little nuance.  It's possible that this nomination cost Hudson her win with vote-splitting, but I'd not entirely be convinced anyone looked at this and said "one of the year's five best" without it actually getting a nomination.

Other Precursor Contenders: The Globes went with Hudson, and the same lineup as Oscar save Harden, who was pushed out for Catherine Zeta-Jones (Traffic).  SAG gave their statue to Dench, again against the Oscar lineup without Harden (here it was Kate Winslet in Quills who got the nomination).  BAFTA gave their statue to Julie Walters (see what I mean about Harden being a surprise) with McDormand, Dench, Lena Olin (Chocolat), & Zhang Ziyi (Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon) as the nominees.  In sixth place, I think you could make a few arguments here.  Zeta-Jones was obviously in the running, but at the time she was facing something of a "too-much-too-soon" backlash (she's always been an old school "give good quip" sort of movie star, and that has occasionally hurt her with a press that wanted a docile princess-type).  So it was likely either Winslet or Connie Nielsen (Gladiator) nearly making it, both the primary female character in an all-male, Oscar-cited cast.

Actors I Would Have Nominated: I have no such prejudices against Catherine Zeta-Jones (I don't want relatable stars), and would've nominated her splendid work in Traffic, showing how deep her talent could get two years before Oscar could no longer deny her.

Oscar’s Choice: Like I said above, Marcia Gay Harden pulled off a big upset against Dench & Hudson, a win that has aged pretty well by my estimation.

My Choice: In a very close race (both of them will show up in our My Ballot article in the next week) I will select Marcia Gay Harden over Kate Hudson, as I think she has more notable character work in her choices, but either would've made a good winner.  Behind them are Walters, Dench, and then McDormand.

Those are my thoughts-what are yours?  Does everyone agree with Marcia Gay Harden as the Oscar victor, or do people want someone else in retrospect?  When was the last time you feel we had a truly left field acting winner?  And was it Zeta-Jones, Winslet, or Nielsen in sixth place?  Share your thoughts below!

Also in 2000: Supporting Actor, Adapted Screenplay, Original Screenplay, Foreign Film, Sound Mixing, Sound Editing, Original Score, Original Song, Art Direction, Cinematography, Costume, Film Editing, Visual Effects, Makeup, Previously in 2000

Past Best Supporting Actress Contests: 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022

OVP: Actress (2001)

OVP: Best Actress (2001)

The Nominees Were...

Halle Berry, Monster's Ball

Judi Dench, Iris

Nicole Kidman, Moulin Rouge!

Sissy Spacek, In the Bedroom

Renee Zellweger, Bridget Jones's Diary

My Thoughts: And we are coming to a close of six consecutive days of OVP Ballots (we'll do the remaining three next week), with our final acting race, Best Actress.  Like Best Actor, I think it's worth knowing some context here.  In 2001, the Oscar race for Best Actress was very, very close.  Nicole Kidman, Sissy Spacek, & Halle Berry were all neck-and-neck as you'll see with the precursors below, and this was the rare race that truly no one knew whose name Russell Crowe was going to call out.

Well, Renee Zellweger probably knew she was staying in her seat, though it's not because she wasn't good in Bridget Jones.  Zellweger, in the wake of Jerry Maguire, had spent a few years floundering in different projects, appearing in daughter/girlfriend roles opposite Meryl Streep & Jim Carrey, and then eventually beating Juliette Binoche for a surprise Golden Globe in 2000 (when she was literally in the bathroom).  Her Bridget Jones made her a proper movie star, and she nails the English accent here in a way few American actresses have achieved beforehand.  She also is genuinely funny & charming, getting the pathos of a single girl in her thirties down to a tee.  The main complaint-it's too slight.  The film is too light, it doesn't quite have enough direction outside of her, and isn't good enough.  But in a year where Oscar felt the need to get a little creative, this was a solid decision.

The only other American in this field was of course Halle Berry.  This is Berry's only nomination, and an historic win in the category...that I wish I could say I enjoy.  I agree with pretty much every criticism levied at this part through the years-that she's miscast, that she feels like she doesn't have enough chemistry with Thornton.  It feels like the further into the role she gets, the more she loses of the character, and that's not what the script is doing.  There's nothing there, other than just a beautiful woman who (while still beautiful) hasn't sat in a makeup chair for three hours prior.  When people criticize deglam performances, this is what they're referring to-all physical change, but not enough substance to the work beneath.

Nicole Kidman's work is the opposite.  Heightened glamour (though obviously a "cheaper" type given the character), she also finds depths beneath the mountain of makeup and silk dresses.  Kidman's work here is remarkable, giving us Satine in all of her facets: as a con artist, as a dreamer, as a survivor.  We understand that her life changes with Christian, but unlike McGregor's lovesick writer, who is totally reborn when he meets her, she brings some of the weight of her previous life with her, informing the performance even as she dares to find a change.  It's terrific work, atop singing that feels like it's giving us more of the character (not easy, especially for a non-professional singer). 

Sissy Spacek also gives us layered work in In the Bedroom.  This performance is showy (that plate-smashing scene became iconic for a reason), but only in parts.  Much of the buildup to that is Spacek putting in the groundwork.  I love the way she always seems a little nervous around the son that she has a distant, prickly relationship with, knowing that she has to guide him to do the things she wants since saying it out loud will just have him go in the opposite direction.  This, of course, is a hallmark of being the mother of a defiant young man, one who is desperate to please one parent but not the other, and Spacek (a mother of two) clearly carries that into her work as Ruth.

Finishing off the list we have our only real-life figure (a rarity for this category) with Judi Dench's performance as Iris Murdoch.  This was during that period where Judi Dench could get nominated for playing virtually any part, so you'd be fine wondering if this is just a "default" nomination, but it's not.  Dench is very good as Iris Murdoch, and has one of the trickier acts in the film, playing a woman who has to both be connected to her younger self (played by Kate Winslet) while also showing flashes of growth and fading away.  She does a decent job of giving us a genius on the brink of losing everything, a woman of prose who can no longer find the words.  The film is depressing, and that starts to hurt Dench's performance because it goes for easy sentiment toward the end, but it's still strong work during Dench's heyday.

Other Precursor Contenders: The Globes separate their nominations between Drama and Musical/Comedy, so we have ten women nominated for these awards.  For Drama, Spacek won, beating Berry, Dench, Nicole Kidman (The Others), & Tilda Swinton (The Deep End), while Comedy/Musical went to Kidman in Moulin Rouge! against Zellweger, Thora Birch (Ghost World), Cate Blanchett (Bandits), & Reese Witherspoon (Legally Blonde).  SAG went with Halle Berry, besting Dench, Spacek, Zellweger, & Jennifer Connelly (A Beautiful Mind), while BAFTA picked Dench against Kidman (The Others), Zellweger, Spacek, & Audrey Tautou (Amelie); Berry wasn't eligible due to when the movie was released in the UK, but she was nominated for Best Actress the following year.  In terms of sixth place, it's tricky.  It's possible that Kidman, because she could only be cited for one film, was not only in sixth but maybe even in fourth for The Others, as both were serious threats for a nomination that year, but if you don't count that, it was surely Swinton, doing the legwork for her eventual win in 2007.

Actors I Would Have Nominated: The Oscars have had a complicated history with Kidman's best friend Naomi Watts, who has been cited for two Oscars for underwhelming films, while her best work they ignored.  That happened in 2001, when she gave the performance of her career in Mulholland Drive and they sadly skipped over it.

Oscar’s Choice: Headed into the night, a three-way tie between Berry, Spacek, & Kidman looked as likely as anything, but Berry was able to ride her SAG win to victory, and one of the Oscar's best speeches (it still gets me crying every time).

My Choice: I'm going to go with Kidman over Spacek, because I think her role is trickier given the heightened world Baz has created, and because the singing is so well-done; both will be showing up next week in my My Ballot wrap-up for this category, though.  Behind them I'll pick Zellweger, Dench, and then Berry.

Those are my thoughts, but now I want to hear yours!  Do you stick with the Academy making history with Berry's choice or do you want to join the Kidman train early with me?  Which of Kidman's 2001 performances should Oscar have chosen if you only get one?  And why do you think it took Tilda Swinton so long to get into the Academy's good graces?  Share your thoughts in the comments below!

Also in 2001: Actor, Supporting Actress, Supporting Actor, Adapted Screenplay, Original Screenplay, Foreign Language Film, Animated Feature Film, Sound Mixing, Sound Editing, Score, Original Song, Art Direction, Cinematography, Costume, Film Editing, Visual Effects, Makeup, Previously in 2001

Past Best Actress Contests: 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022

OVP: Supporting Actress (2021)

OVP: Best Supporting Actress (2021)

The Nominees Were...

Jessie Buckley, The Lost Daughter

Ariana DeBose, West Side Story

Judi Dench, Belfast

Kirsten Dunst, The Power of the Dog

Aunjanue Ellis, King Richard

My Thoughts: One of the questions I sometimes wonder with the Oscars is whether or not the role is getting the nomination or if it's the performance.  When I judge for the OVP, I always base it solely on the performance, which I think is the correct tactic; roles, even good ones, shouldn't get you an Oscar.  But it does feel like AMPAS occasionally forgets that, and even when it does get a good performance with a good role, it feels like they sometimes overestimate it when it comes to a sweep or a win.

I say this as someone who really enjoyed Ariana DeBose's stellar work in West Side Story.  When I first saw it, I was wowed, but when it comes to a remake it's hard not to compare it to the previous iterations of the story, and while I try not to do it (if it's in the Top 5, it's in the Top 5, and for me, this is Top 5-you'll see it when we get to the My Ballot hopefully in the next week), in a Hollywood bereft of ideas, I feel like Maria from West Side Story (one of the only roles to win multiple Oscars) is one of those parts it's hard to screw up.  She nails the singing and there's a bite in her that's not quite there in Moreno's, but Moreno also seems to give her part more depth, more personality.  DeBose is playing one of the best aspects in the finest musical score of all time...she's starting out on third base even if she's admittedly hitting a home run.

Aunjanue Ellis is also playing a trope that feels very much like the "role" is getting the nomination more than she is: long-suffering wife is toward the top of the list of favorite parts for Supporting Actress.  Ellis is a good actress, and adds a lot to Oracene Price that isn't on the page.  There's a weariness in her that feels cloaked in the scenes with her daughters that disappears when they are not that feels appropriate for a woman who eventually divorced the title character.  But the problem is that the script doesn't care about her, and more importantly, doesn't care about her struggles (particularly when it comes to Richard Williams' infidelities), and so it feels like a half of a performance rather than a full one.

Judi Dench is not getting nominated so much for a performance as she is because, well, Oscar loves Judi Dench.  Dench's citation for Belfast got her an eighth Oscar nod, putting her in the same company as screen icons Jack Lemmon, Geraldine Page, & Peter O'Toole.  While people dismissed this as a throwaway nod, I actually think Dench is strong in this movie (better than even her costar Caitriona Balfe), giving us this wonderful bit of aging from a woman who knows most of her life is gone, but instead of stopping living her life, she's trying a way to guide the next generations of her family into a better existence.  It's a smart, capable performance (her best since Philomena), and I think is one that will age well in her long career.

Kirsten Dunst is getting her first nomination after a film career that has spanned decades, and the former child performer saved some of her best work for Power of the Dog.  There are moments in the middle of Power of the Dog where it feels like Dunst might be losing the narrative a bit...the alcoholism seems to come as if out of nowhere, not telegraphed enough in the first third of this triptych.  But Dunst plays against our expectations by showing us mental health and its ramifications in an era where we don't frequently think of the travails of mental health issues...even if we know they're there.  Especially as the film continues, and her allegiances & understandings of this situation shift...you get to see the mechanics of a woman who is over-her-head, and must trust that she'll survive this chess match between the men in her life.

Our final nominee is Jessie Buckley, a very good actress (and great singer) who, I'm going to be honest, gives an Oscar-nominated performance (her first!) that I couldn't get into at all.  I think part of it is the writing-there's not enough connection between Buckley as a woman and Colman playing the same part, and I don't really blame Colman here, as she gives her "freed mother" part with such recklessness behind a respectable veneer.  There's too many scenes that feel like they're missing from making Buckley's Leda feel fully-fleshed.  It's cool that Buckley got an Oscar nod, but had AMPAS waited a year, she might've earned it.

Other Precursor Contenders: The Globes, SAG, & BAFTA all picked Ariana DeBose as their victors, but came up with much different lists of nominees.  HFPA had her beating Balfe, Dunst, Ellis, & Ruth Negga (Passing), while SAG had the same lineup except instead of Ellis they chose Cate Blanchett (Nightmare Alley).  BAFTA did its totally own thing (which they've been doing more-and-more lately, and I love it), with DeBose besting Balfe, Buckley, Negga, Ellis, & Ann Dowd (Mass).  In terms of sixth place, at the time I predicted both Catriona Balfe and Marlee Matlin (CODA) would get nominations (I missed Dench & Buckley), and I honestly still can't pick between the two.  Balfe had all of the precursors, but CODA love was so strong I wonder if Matlin might've been just below-the-surface.

Actors I Would Have Nominated: I wasn't in love with Oscar's lineup here (I'm guessing you can tell).  Part of that is because there was some really interesting work in films Oscar nominated elsewhere that they skipped (or had gotten enough precursor love that it was clearly on AMPAS' radar).  Two that come to mind are Ruth Negga and Kathryn Hunter (The Tragedy of Macbeth).  Both find ways to enhance well beyond the page, oddly both inhabiting women with a secret, potentially dooming the leading player forever for being in their sightline.

Oscar’s Choice: It wasn't close-DeBose clobbered the competition here (honestly, no idea who was in second place...maybe Dunst?).

My Choice: I'll go with Dunst over DeBose, I think adding more interesting touches to her character even though both are good.  Behind them, I'll do Dench, Ellis, & Buckley in back.

Those are my thoughts-what are yours?  Do you want to join the rest of the stampede in crowning Ariana DeBose for doing the thing (I had to) or do you think this was a great moment to just go all-the-way with Dunst's first shot?  How did Judi Dench come out-of-nowhere when Caitriona Balfe had done so well all season?  And why didn't Marlee Matlin get any love for a Best Picture winner?  Share your thoughts below!

Also in 2021: Supporting Actor, Adapted Screenplay, Original Screenplay, International Feature Film, Animated Feature Film, Sound, Original Score, Original Song, Production Design, Cinematography, Costume, Film Editing, Visual Effects, Makeup & Hairstyling, Previously in 2021

Past Best Supporting Actress Contests: 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020

No Globe? No SAG? No Problem!

This morning, we officially got our SAG Award nominations, which means that we are now able to write one of my favorite annual articles on this blog.  We don't have a lot of traditions here about the current Oscar season (frequently we are stuck in the past in that regard), but we have written every year for the past ten years an article about the weird phenomenon involving the Golden Globes & SAG Awards.  Oscar, particularly predictable in the past twenty years or so, generally will pick most of his nominations from these two award shows.  However, awards followers always forget that Oscar will pick at least a couple of nominees that are not contenders for either of these major shows.  The last ten years have produced this crew of nominees that weren't mentioned at the Globes or SAG Awards:

2020: Paul Raci & LaKeith Stanfield

2019: Florence Pugh

2018: Marina de Tavira & Yalitza Aparicio

2017: Lesley Manville

2016: Michael Shannon

2015: Charlotte Rampling, Tom Hardy, & Mark Ruffalo

2014: Bradley Cooper, Marion Cotillard, & Laura Dern

2013: Jonah Hill

2012: Quvenzhane Wallis, Emmanuelle Riva, & Jacki Weaver

2011: Gary Oldman & Max von Sydow

You actually have to go back to 2006 to find the last year where all of the Oscar nominees were cited for either the Globes or the SAG Awards.  As you can see from this lineup, the list generally falls into two camps.  Most of the nominees are from films that were being nominated already for Best Picture or one of the major acting nominees.  People like LaKeith Stanfield, Paul Raci, & Florence Pugh in recent years fall into this camp, where they managed to impress in a movie that was already being screened, and the Academy went for it.  Occasionally we get someone like Gary Oldman or Charlotte Rampling who get on this list without such a citation, but in that case they almost always have to be famous (preferably screen legends or former winners/nominees).  Below, I have assembled a list of ten actors that have not been nominated for the Globes or SAG Awards this season, and ranked them based on the likelihood that they will join the list above, becoming Oscar nominees against the odds.  I will state that the below list is predominantly focused on the supporting categories, which feel far more influx than the leads do (we don't normally have this imbalance, but I feel like the supporting categories aren't nearly as defined as they usually are by now).

10. Kathryn Hunter (The Tragedy of Macbeth)

For Her: Hunter is generally getting the best-in-show citations for Macbeth, even as Denzel Washington is scoring most of the nominations.  Though Hunter isn't all that famous, it's easy to see people watching this movie, which just opened (and might not be at the top of the screener list), and nominating her-it's the sort of performance where if you see it, it stands out.  You don't have to be super famous to make the cut in this regard (look at Lesley Manville above, who would be a very similar scenario to Hunter).

Against Her: Obviously, she's not all that famous, and it's easier to get into the race if you're a big name.  I also wonder if she's got some internal competition from 3-time Oscar Winner Frances McDormand, who is by all rights a lead, but is in a small enough portion of the film that I'd totally buy some people putting her in supporting.  For a film this small, that will matter.

9. Penelope Cruz (Parallel Mothers)

For Her: Though her film isn't a threat anywhere else, Cruz is a famous, Oscar-winning movie star...that gives you a crib sheet when it comes to getting into the Oscar ballots.  More importantly, she's in a movie that's opening late...but Oscar voting is also happening later than we typically see for the Globes & SAG Awards.  Could Cruz break late ala Marion Cotillard in 2014...word is she's superb in this movie, which could definitely help.

Against Her: Two things.  First, she has no momentum at this point because her studio opened the film too late & you'd think that Cruz (and Pedro Almodovar) would have been enough to get her into some of the precursor DVD players...that she wasn't is a telling sign.  More importantly, Best Actress feels, very, very wrapped up with Stewart, Kidman, Colman, Chastain, & Gaga all feeling about right, and if they are getting kicked out wouldn't Rachel Zegler (Globe-winning & in a Best Picture nominee) or Jennifer Hudson (SAG-nominated & in a biopic) make more sense?

8. Judi Dench (Belfast)

For Her: For starters, she's Judi Dench, which for a while there was literally all the answer you needed for something like this.  Dench is also in a prominent role in a likely Best Picture nominee (I still think it's one of the three films that is contending for the actual win, all the more reason to endorse it), and she's good in the movie.  She's one of the emotional centers of the film, gets a lot of fun scene-stealing, and if you like the movie enough to cite it as your best picture, it's easy to see someone sparing room for Dench...

Against Her: ...so why is she missing so many citations?  Honestly, Judi Dench is not a new name to the Globes & SAG Awards (she's been nominated plenty of times), and they clearly saw Belfast cause they're nominating her costars.  Is it possible that the Academy has moved beyond the "Grand Dame" route for their nominations-Dench, Helen Mirren, & Maggie Smith have all had plenty of major films in the past decade, but the last time any of them were cited was Dench's nod for Philomena.  It's possible that the Academy feels they've been given enough.

7. Jon Bernthal (King Richard)

For Him: One of the ways that you get in, as I mentioned above, is by being a major part of a serious Best Picture nominee.  Bernthal definitely has that in King Richard, which is a surefire Best Picture nominee and a near-certain winner for Best Actor (sorry, SAG nominations are out, I'm using word like "near-certain" for people like Will Smith at this point).  He's been in the business forever (they like giving character actors like him a random nomination if they can), and he's a highlight in the back-half of King Richard.

Against Him: Is it possible that King Richard is really just the Will Smith show?  The miss this morning for Aunjanue Ellis makes me think that in a year where there appears to be a lot of favored films for acting (the nominations are kind of all-over-the-place save for Best Actress), that giving a win to Smith will be enough for King Richard.  Bernthal would've been higher if Ellis hadn't missed, but I do wonder if the reception to King Richard might be more appreciative than celebratory.

6. Ann Dowd (Mass)

For Her: Dowd started out the year relatively strong.  She got lots of citations for her work in Mass from critics, got a Critics Choice nomination (generally a good indicator of a nomination), and she was singled out by a number of critics as the best-in-show of the stellar cast of Mass.  She's also been working toward this nomination for a while.  You'd be hard-pressed to find a character actress who has dominated more prestige film & television projects in the past decade than Dowd...shouldn't Oscar give her her due?

Against Her: Dowd is the only person on this list who is neither a known movie star or featured in a legitimate Best Picture threat.  She's famous, but probably not famous enough to get through this on her own.  I do wonder if Mass might've been too heavy for an Academy that is favoring a lot of escapist fare this year...or if the Academy thinks that the Emmy she got for The Handmaid's Tale was good enough.

5. JK Simmons (Being the Ricardos)

For Him: Few films this season have exceeded expectations quite like Being the Ricardos (in terms of precursors...its reviews feel, if anything, more-than-generous based on my humbled opinion).  Both of the leading stars of the film (Kidman & Bardem) scored nominations from the Globes AND SAG, and I now have moved this into a probable Best Picture nominee.  Simmons gets a plum part, he's the most famous supporting player in this movie, and a former Oscar winner.  The question is less why Simmons, and more why he doesn't already have traction?

Against Him: It's a good part (alcoholic actor trying to stay afloat), but it's not the center of the story.  Honestly if Simmons misses he can blame Aaron Sorkin for ripping out a lot of the best parts of the I Love Lucy story that might've worked for someone playing William Frawley (his struggles with booze are somewhat glossed over, and his brutal feud with Vivian Vance only gets tertiary importance).

4. Meryl Streep (Don't Look Up)

For Her: She's Meryl f-ing Streep.  Streep has a very, very short list of performances that she was in that fit the term Oscar bait that she didn't score for, and an even shorter list that were nominated for Best Picture that she didn't get in for (basically the only time they've crossed before this is The Hours).  As a result, Streep is in a plum role in a film likely to score a Best Picture nomination, and yet she hasn't been dominating all year.  It's possible, though, that Oscar will default to his regular ways & give her a nomination for her vulgar president in Don't Look Up...after all, if they're into it enough for Best Picture, it'll probably get an acting nod.

Against Her: There's a reason that Streep isn't scoring for Don't Look Up-she's terrible in it, which is honestly not something that Meryl Streep ever gets accused of.  The lack of nominations from especially the Golden Globes, who normally are on her side, makes it seem like no one really wants to shine a light too brightly on this performance (I honestly think Streep would be embarrassed to get this nod).

3. Rita Moreno (West Side Story)

For Her: She's a screen legend, an icon really from the Golden Age of Hollywood, in a year that we lost a lot of links to that era.  She's also a great trivia question, as she was cited for West Side Story before, and gets a major emotional moment late in the film that could help get her attention.  She'd be the oldest Oscar nominee ever...what more do you want in terms of narrative, AMPAS?

Against Her: If last year's snubs of Ellen Burstyn & Sophia Loren are any indication, Oscar is not feeling as sentimental as he once was.  The SAG Awards were probably Moreno's best shot at gaining steam (Disney totally screwed up by not giving out screeners), considering they love to honor older actors, but her missing there might make you think that Oscar only has room for one Maria this year.

2. Nicolas Cage (Pig)

For Him: Part of me wonders if Nicolas Cage is the "Charlotte Rampling" of this year-someone who kept showing up in critics lists to the point where their nomination materialized simply because the people who had seen him in the movie kept putting him #1.  Cage is obviously famous enough to get by on his big name, and the people who love him in Pig really love him.  Also the Academy might want to remind the public that Cage was once considered one of the best actors of his generation before he became something of a Steven Seagal-style punchline.

Against Him: You've got four locks in the Best Actor category (Smith, Cumberbatch, Washington, & Garfield all fell pretty sewn in), and only one slot remaining.  Cage could make it (he's #2 on this list for a reason), but he needs to hold back the very serious threats of Leonardo DiCaprio, Javier Bardem, & Peter Dinklage, the former two both Oscar winners & the latter a major TV star in a film that could break late.  The flip side of the Charlotte Rampling coin is Ethan Hawke in First Reformed, which could be where Cage lands.

1. Marlee Matlin (CODA)

For Her: Let's examine the evidence.  Best Picture nominee? Almost certainly, and it comes by it honestly rather than it feeling manufactured.  Other nominees from her film nominated?  Yep, it looks probable that Troy Kotsur gets in.  Is she famous?  I mean, Marlee Matlin is an Oscar-winning actress who has worked steadily in a Hollywood that has not often had a lot of great roles for deaf actors.  This feels like the sort of late-breaking campaign that should be able to materialize in the coming weeks, and with a lot of chaos happening in Supporting Actress (I don't buy that anyone other than Kirsten Dunst is safe), there's lots of options for Matlin to make it.

Against Her: I'm confused why this campaign doesn't have more traction, particularly after Kotsur scored some major precursors even without being as famous as his costar.  That, and the fact that competition is fierce for this field (five of the women on this list are trying to make it in this lineup, and it's possible they all miss if Dunst, Ellis, Balfe, DeBose, & Negga all get in) are her biggest deterrents.  But I do think she's a serious threat, and honestly (as of today), I'd be predicting her for the fifth slot.

OVP: Belfast (2021)

Film: Belfast (2021)

Stars: Jude Hill, Caitriona Balfe, Jamie Dornan, Judi Dench, Ciarin Hinds

Director: Kenneth Branagh

Oscar History: 7 nominations/1 win (Best Picture, Director, Supporting Actor-Ciarin Hinds, Supporting Actress-Judi Dench, Original Screenplay*, Sound, Original Song-"Down to Joy")

Snap Judgment Ranking: 4/5 stars

A loyal reader of the blog recently asked "are you not doing reviews of 2021 movies anymore on the blog?" which was a good wakeup call to me that I was getting a bit behind in my 2021 film reviews. Admittedly, if you're following me on Letterboxd (and you should!) you might know some of my brief opinions of this week's movies, but all of this week, starting yesterday with Power of the Dog and headed into Friday, we'll be getting a different 2021 film as we move straight into not only December, but the heart of Oscar season.  It makes sense for us to catchup first with one of the movies that has the best chance of not only getting that "Oscar-nominated" stamp, but a picture that feels like it could be one of the threats for the win in a race that's (at least right now, the precursors will surely soon ruin it) a contender for taking the top prize for Best Picture: Belfast.

(Spoilers Ahead) The film is about a young boy named Buddy (Hill), who lives in Belfast in 1969 during the height of the Troubles.  He alternates between spending his time with his parents, primarily his mother Ma (Balfe), as his father Pa (Dornan) is away much of the time for work, and doting on his grandparents Granny (Dench) and Pop (Hinds).  Buddy has the fascinations of a young boy, and as this is semi-autobiographical to director Kenneth Branagh, a lot of those fascinations float toward the cinema, where he feels most at-home.  The film takes on a bit of a Cinema Paradiso vibe as a result (that's a compliment from me-I love that movie despite it having some detractors due to the schmaltz), but Branagh also takes time to view the complexities of Ma & Pa's marriage, under strain from Pa's commitment to nonviolence with his Catholic neighbors, and the sadness of Pop's deteriorating health (it doesn't take a spoiler alert to let you know that not all of the adults are making it out of this one alive).

This sounds like a bit of a downer of a film, but Belfast is hardly that.  Despite its heavy subject matter, it's pretty lightweight stuff, and while it never pays lip service to the tragedies happening around young Buddy (this is not a case where you're going to feel offended that Branagh's film is spending too much time at the cinema and not enough time on the atrocities occurring around him), it is a feel-good picture with a largely happy ending for most involved, with Pa & Ma giving young Buddy a chance that he likely wouldn't have hung onto in Belfast.

This is what makes the movie successful for me (I was a fan).  Branagh's alternating between black-and-white and color feels a tad gimmicky at times (it looks good, but I thought it felt a little bit hokey), but he strikes gold with a solid cast.  Young Hill is good as our eyes into the world, but it's the adults in the cast that stood out for me.  Hinds & Dench, longtime veterans of the screen, play well off of each other, each getting their own moments to lean into their weathered personalities.  Balfe's harried mother feels appropriately heartbreaking, trying to decide between staying in the place she always pictured herself, or moving on to a new world where she might give her family a better chance.  Best of all is Jamie Dornan.  Freed of the heavy-handed storytelling of Christian Grey, he plays his Pa as a man thrust into responsibilities that he might not have been ready for.  Dornan better than anyone finds the balance of the film, alternating between the weighty subject matter and the lightness (it helps that he & Balfe get a perfect little musical moment late in the film that had the audience in my theater visibly smiling).  It's hard to tell which of this quartet will get Oscar nominations (none are assured, though it's possible all could happen), but all bring their A-Game to a breezy, successful film.

OVP: Actress (2006)

OVP: Best Actress (2006)

The Nominees Were...

Penelope Cruz, Volver

Judi Dench, Notes on a Scandal

Helen Mirren, The Queen

Meryl Streep, The Devil Wears Prada

Kate Winslet, Little Children

My Thoughts: On Wednesday, we talked a bit about how weak-sauce the Best Actor field was-one of the worst lineups that Oscar has ever pulled together, and definitely one of the dullest.  The Best Actress field in 2006, though, pulls together (for my money) one of the best that Oscar has come up with.  The rare field to host five winners (though two had to wait a few years to get their statue), and has a quintet of women at the top of their games.  Sadly (but in true Oscar fashion) most of the films that are cited here are not films we saw a lot of in terms of nominations in other categories, so we'll segway into this field with one of the few performances that did.

Helen Mirren won the Oscar in 2006-this is not a spoiler alert, but it does sort of ruin the climax of this article, so I generally don't mention this in the write-ups.  I say it here because this victory has been chalked up in retrospect as the kind of win that happened inevitably-a storied actor at the top of her game getting into an Academy-friendly biopic.  What gets lost in that (not inaccurate) description is that Mirren is glorious in The Queen.  She gives to Elizabeth II (before The Crown tried to three-dimensionalize her) a sense of detachment combined with duty & authenticity.  It would be easy for Mirren to play Elizabeth in private as some broken figure during a moment of national tragedy, but that's not what she does.  Her Queen remains elusive, unknowable, even in her private moments someone who has spent so much time not revealing herself that she sometimes struggles to know where duty ends & Elizabeth begins.  A true triumph from a world-class actor, and the rare case of an overdue performer getting in for some bravura work.

Meryl Streep had been hunting for her third trophy for several decades by the time Prada rolled around, and the "overdue" drum had been beating to give her a statue since at least Bridges of Madison County.  Had it not been for Mirren, it's probable that she would've won it here.  Streep's work here is some of the best of a career that is defined by being "the best."  Miranda Priestly would also be easy to humanize, a woman of immense power who has had to sacrifice much of herself to get where she is, but Streep doesn't play her that way.  Miranda is not a saint, she's not perfect or even a hero, but she is a woman who knows what it takes to succeed, for the good or the bad, and Streep gets that.  It's a small part (she's in less than a third of the film...Dench & Cruz are double that), but she lands every second with a brilliant iconography-Streep has not been this good since.

Judi Dench has made a career out of playing a similar breed of aging British woman-sometimes with money, sometimes without, but a pleasant scene-stealer who is there to please your aunt.  Notes on a Scandal is the closest that Dench has (since becoming a bonafide movie star) come to playing against type, which is a risk (sometimes such things fall flat), but here she nails her part.  Dench is jaw-dropping as a closeted lesbian in lust with a flawed younger teacher, and totally nails every inch of this sociopath.  As an audience we're taught to understand how deep Dench's malevolence goes pretty early on, but it's still a juxtaposition to have sweet Judi Dench tear apart an unknowing Blanchett's life simply for not conforming to her twisted fantasy.  The final scene, in particular, with the cool lies & lack of perspective, totally sell the movie.

It's hard to believe, but at one point it was a question mark as to how good of an actress Penelope Cruz was.  Between the mixed views on Vanilla Sky (which I will be watching later this month, but haven't seen yet) and the press's preoccupation with her love life (specifically dating Tom Cruise), Cruz felt before 2006 to be an actress that was more for the tabloids than the Oscars.  With Volver, she quickly proved herself to be a proper actress, playing the complicated role of Raimunda (a woman with secrets who is being "haunted" by her mother), flawlessly.  Cruz is so good at combining Almodovar's cheeky sense of humor with his propensity for dark plots, and has marvelous chemistry with the cascade of women in the cast.

Kate Winslet was not, in 2006, someone that we were wondering if she could act (this has never really been a question mark in Winslet's storied career).  But in 2006 we were wondering what direction her career would take as she played yet another earth goddess-style figure, ready to be worshiped by Patrick Wilson.  Turns out, this was still essential viewing.  Winslet brings a specific kind of bored energy to her Sara, someone who knows that she can seduce a man, but wants to test exactly how he'll make her feel, as she's walled up so much of her true self.  Little Children is not an easy film to love, but Todd Field's ability with actors is shown best with Winslet's work here, as he lets his actor's natural strengths shift the way we view the character.

Other Precursor Contenders: The Globes separate their nominations between Drama and Musical/Comedy, so we have ten women nominated for these awards.  The Drama categories gave it up to Mirren, with all save for Streep among the nominees (in her place, Maggie Gyllenhaal in Sherrybaby), while Streep won Comedy/Musical over Annette Bening (Running with Scissors), Beyonce (Dreamgirls), Toni Collette (Little Miss Sunshine), & Renee Zellweger (Miss Potter).  SAG & the Globe went with an exact replica of the Oscar race, both winners & nominees.  Gyllenhaal was probably sixth, but as someone who lived through this year, it was one of those seasons where no one was taking down this Top 5...

Actors I Would Have Nominated: ...and with good reason.  I will reveal my final ballot next week, but the only name that is remotely in contention to take out one of these top five is Naomi Watts in The Painted Veil (a great portrayal of a complicated, thawing woman), and she'd be going for fifth place at best.

Oscar’s Choice: In a different year Streep might have won a third or we would've gotten an early coronation for Penelope Cruz, but in 2006, there was no beating Helen Mirren.

My Choice: I know this will shock the collective internet, but I'm also going to agree with Oscar here. Streep (my silver) gives an iconic turn, but I feel like Mirren ultimately has layers in her performance that go unnoticed until we rewatch.  It's a close race though, with Cruz, Dench, & Winslet bringing up the back.  The rare year where Oscar could have picked anyone & it would've been one of the decade's better decisions.

Those are my thoughts, but now I want to hear yours!  Are you with the collective awards run (including me), or will you go with Miranda Priestley & her legions of memes?  Who's another actor like Judi Dench we want to see play against type as a villain?  And has there ever been such a lock-step Oscar field?  Share your thoughts in the comments below!

Also in 2006: Actor, Supporting Actress, Supporting Actor, Original Screenplay, Adapted Screenplay, Foreign Language Film, Animated Feature Film, Sound Mixing, Sound Editing, Original Score, Original Song, Art Direction, Cinematography, Costume, Film Editing, Visual Effects, Makeup, Previously in 2006

Past Best Actress Contests: 2004, 2005, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2019