Flirting with Disaster (1996)

Film: Flirting with Disaster (1996)

Stars: Ben Stiller, Patricia Arquette, Tea Leoni, Alan Alda, Mary Tyler Moore, George Segal, Lily Tomlin, Richard Jenkins, Josh Brolin

Director: David O. Russell

Oscar History: No nominations

Snap Judgment Ranking: 2/5 stars

Each month, as part of our 2024 Saturdays with the Stars series, we are looking at the women who were once crowned as "America's Sweethearts" and the careers that inspired that title (and what happened when they eventually lost it to a new generation).  This month, our focus is on Mary Tyler Moore: click here to learn more about Ms. Moore (and why I picked her), and click here for other Saturdays with the Stars articles.

Despite starring in a Best Picture winner (and nearly taking an Oscar herself), Mary Tyler Moore was never able to have the kind of success in film that she had in television outside of Ordinary People.  She'd make just two movies in the 1980's, and would largely stick to stage work, here as a producer rather than an actress (she would win a Tony in 1985 for Best Revival for A Day in the Death of Joe Egg), and she'd have continued sporadic success on television (she'd get nominated for acting in four TV Movie/Miniseries, winning for 1993's Stolen Babies), but film work simply didn't happen for Moore.  The most significant film she made was in 1996, one of David O. Russell's earlier pictures, called Flirting with Disaster, which was a surprise hit for Miramax at the time, during an era where Miramax still meant edgy new voices in cinema rather than plush Oscar prestige projects.  So we will end our discussion of Moore with this movie, where she plays a supporting part as Ben Stiller's adoptive mother.

(Spoilers Ahead) The movie focuses on Mel (Stiller), who has recently had a son with his wife Nancy (Arquette), but is unable to know what to name the baby until he knows where he comes from.  Mel was adopted as a baby by Pearl (Moore) & Ed (Segal), but has always wanted to know his birth parents.  He is trying to find this through Tina (Leoni), an adoption agent who is also clearly sparking a romantic connection with Mel, exacerbated by him seemingly not finding his wife attractive as she has not lost her baby weight yet.  This leads to a series of mishaps, including Tina incorrectly getting the birth parents wrong twice before finding out that it's Mary (Tomlin) & Richard (Alda) who are his birth parents...but they're also drug producers who after accidentally drugging one of the ATF agents that have started following Mel, Nancy, & Tina around, go on the run from the law.  Mel decides in the end that he didn't need to find his birth parents to find his identity, and ends up naming the baby Garcia after Jerry Garcia.  The end credits shows he and Nancy now happy after the anguish of finding his family.

I will own that I don't like the movies of David O. Russell as a rule (the one exception being Silver Linings Playbook).  I find the films too mean, the characters so irredeemable that I don't want them to get happy endings.  This is true for Flirting with Disaster.  Mel is an awful man, basically mistreating his wife because he thinks she's too fat, and actively trying to have a relationship with Tina even while he is putting his wife through hell.  That he gets a fully happy ending feels like a Woody Allen movie, and indeed, that's what Russell is attempting to do here without the sophistication.  All of the supporting parts, including Moore, are played as caricatures.  The best of the bunch is Josh Brolin as the world's most adorable gay ATF agent, smitten with Nancy, though clearly also gay, but he's not in enough of the movie for you to care.  A waste of your time, even if I get that this might've read as fresh still in 1996.

Moore would work sporadically in TV guest spots throughout the rest of her life, and write two memoirs.  She'd also reunite with all of the Mary Tyler Moore ladies briefly on Hot in Cleveland (which starred her sitcom costar Betty White), a bittersweet moment because at the time their former costar Valerie Harper had just been diagnosed with terminal cancer, and wasn't expected to live much longer.  It was Moore, though, who would die first of the five women on the show.  After years of liver & kidney complications driven by diabetes and issues with alcohol, she passed away in 2017 at the age of 80 from pneumonia.  Next month, we're going to talk about another woman who, like Moore, would get her start in TV sitcoms in the 1960's, but unlike Moore, would graduate into proper movie stardom (and Oscar glory) in the years that followed.

The Late Show (1977)

Film: The Late Show (1977)

Stars: Art Carney, Lily Tomlin, Bill Macy, Eugene Roche, Joanna Cassidy

Director: Robert Benton

Oscar History: 1 nomination (Best Original Screenplay)

Snap Judgment Ranking: 2/5 stars

Throughout the month of June we will be doing a Film Noir Movie Marathon, featuring fifteen film noir classics that I'll be seeing for the first time.  Reviews of other film noir classics are at the bottom of this article.

In the 1970's, as I've mentioned in some of our recent reviews, neo-noir came into popularity, but very briefly.  I think because there are a trio of major classics of the era that came out at about the same time (The Long Goodbye, Chinatown, and Night Moves...reviews listed below), it makes it seem like there were more films in this time frame that were part of the neo-noir movement than there actually were (i.e. it was not like the 1940's and 50's where it seems like we got a new movie every weekend).  But we did get a few deep cut titles, and some got critical acclaim.  Our movie today was actually cited for an Academy Award, for Best Original Screenplay, but it stars a pair that feels so unlikely in the noir setting you'd be forgiven for assuming it's a spoof.  Lily Tomlin & Art Carney, both fresh off of major Oscar success themselves, are not, in fact, playing The Late Show for laughs.  Though the film has comic elements, it ends up being largely a straight-film...somewhat to its downfall.

(Spoilers Ahead) The movie centers on Ira Wells (Carney), an aging, unwell private detective who meets a kooky actress named Margo Sperling (Tomlin) at the funeral of his recently deceased friend Harry Regan (Howard Duff, a staple in 1940's noir, plays the part in a cameo and in a nod to the films of which it's based).  The two are like oil-and-water, or in this case patchouli & musk, as Margo is a free-thinking hippie to Harry's rough-and-tumble PI, but the two click, and are drawn together after they witness a murder (and nearly die in the process).  This opens up a seedy underbelly to the death of both Harry and the man they saw die (who kidnapped Margo's cat, who despite some close calls makes it through the film unscathed), leading up to a giant showdown late in the movie that will leave them both in each other's lives, likely forever.

The film is an odd juxtaposition because of the actors.  Tomlin, Carney, and Bill Macy (best known as Bea Arthur's husband on Maude) are all the leads, but they are all largely-known today for their comic work, principally in television.  I obviously am watching this in retrospect, and so wasn't subjected to the trailers at the time or the marketing for the movie (or the fact that, at least for Carney, this was during a rare period where Hollywood turned him into a leading man, though this was one of the few dramas that he made), but it feels off-putting to me to watch them, as you're kind of begging for a laugh.  This wouldn't be a problem if they were good, but the movie itself is too formulaic to be of that much interest.  The script presents a very generic story that could easily have been left on a desk in an RKO producer's office in the 1940's were it not for the modern touches Tomlin brings.

As a result, the novelty is watching comedic actors playing drama, and it doesn't work.  They try to foist a love story between the two, but they have nothing in common, and have far more chemistry as friends than as a romantic entanglement (it doesn't help that it's almost entirely Tomlin flirting, more so trying to convince the audience of the romance than anything else).  That this film involved Robert Altman (who produced it), one of the most organic screenwriters of the era, and is so formulaic (and not in a fun way), just feels off.  The film isn't bad, but it's decidedly a missed opportunity.

1940's: Act of Violence, The Big Sleep, The Blue Dahlia, Blues in the Night, Brighton Rock, Criss Cross, Crossfire, Daisy Kenyon, Dead Reckoning, Detour, Fallen Angel, The Fallen Idol, Force of Evil, Gilda, High Sierra, I Walk Alone, I Wake Up Screaming, The Killers, The Lady from Shanghai, Leave Her to Heaven, Ministry of Fear, Moonrise, Murder My Sweet, Nightmare Alley, Out of the Past, The Postman Always Rings Twice, Raw Deal, The Reckless Moment, Ride the Pink Horse, Scarlet Street, Sorry, Wrong Number, The Strange Love of Martha Ivers, They Won't Believe Me, Too Late for Tears, The Woman in the Window, The Woman on the Beach

1950's: Ace in the Hole, Affair in Trinidad, The Asphalt Jungle, Beat the Devil, The Big Combo, The Big Heat, The Blue Gardenia, The Breaking Point, The Burglar, Cast a Dark Shadow, The Crimson Kimono, Elevator to the Gallows, Gun Crazy, The Hitch-Hiker, House of Bamboo, In a Lonely Place, The Killing, Kiss Me Deadly, Murder by Contract, Night and the City, Odds Against Tomorrow, On Dangerous Ground, Pickup on South Street, The Prowler, Slightly Scarlet, Sudden Fear, Sweet Smell of Success, They Live By Night, While the City Sleeps

Neo-Noir: Blade Runner, Body Heat, Farewell My Lovely, Fargo, From Afar, The Long Goodbye, Le Samourai, Night Moves, Nightcrawler

OVP: Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse (2018)

Film: Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse
Stars: Shameik Moore, Jake Johnson, Hailee Steinfeld, Mahershala Ali, Lily Tomlin, John Mulaney, Nicolas Cage, Brian Tyree Henry, Liev Schrieber, Kimiko Glenn, Chris Pine, Oscar Isaac
Director: Bob Persichetti, Peter Ramsey, and Rodney Rothman
Oscar History: 1 nomination/1 win (Best Animated Feature Film*)
Snap Judgment Ranking: 4/5 stars

We close out our look at the animated feature nominees of 2018 (if you missed our other articles click this link to peruse past nominees in the category & past discussions of this specific Oscar race) with the movie that actually won the trophy.  In the year where Black Panther broke ground and became the first proper superhero movie to win an Academy Award nomination for Best Picture, the animators' branch also broke ground and gave out their first Oscar to a traditional superhero (technically Big Hero 6 was the first comic book film to win this award, but it didn't do so as a well-known tentpole).  Spider-Man may be the most oversaturated Marvel character in the movies (give or take Wolverine), and so seeing such a character win the Oscar either meant that the Academy was crying "uncle" & giving in to the hoards, or it was a nod that we'd finally found a movie that was worthy of such an honor.  Thankfully for us, it was the latter as Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse has things to say, and does them beautifully.

(Spoilers Ahead) The film focuses on teenager Miles Morales (Moore), an "average" teenager who fights with his father (Henry) and worships his cool, seemingly harmless uncle Aaron (Ali).  One day, while hanging out with his uncle, Miles is bitten in the subway by a radioactive spider and becomes, well, you know the story of Spider-Man.

This is, however, where the story of Spider-Man retreats from the "Uncle Ben/Aunt May/Gwen Stacy/Mary Jane Watson" story so well-known that only Martha & Thomas Wayne can feel the same level of nausea for having had to live through the Groundhog Day of a situation over-and-over again.  Instead, we get a relatively complex (especially for an animated film that is at least on-the-surface targeting younger audiences) introduction to a multiverse, where multiple different people are playing some version of Spider-Man (Johnson, Steinfeld, Mulaney, Glenn, Cage, Pine, & Isaac all take on the role in various guises ranging from the traditional Peter Parker to Peter Porker, a porcine version that is voiced by Mulaney & is probably the film's greatest comedic highlight).  We also get a host of different villains (including Kingpin, Prowler, Scorpion, & Green Goblin), with Kingpin serving as the big baddie of this film, but unlike almost any other comic book picture that has too many villains and too many heroes, it doesn't crush under its own weight.

This is because there are two true threads in the film that continue to carry it forward.  The first is the relationship between Miles & his father, complicated but filled with unspoken love, Henry & Moore both play this relationship with a realism that is so alien to animated features.  I loved the reality of a teenage Moore, who had clearly adored his father just a few short years ago, trying to reconcile his relationship with himself and his new idols with that of his old one, his police officer father.  That he chooses, in his own way, to pursue a similar line-of-work is handled in a way that never borders into cliche, and actually ends up being a cool story.  This "accept the world you live in" message is abundant throughout the film, but it perhaps comes across best with Miles realizing the family he has is the one he needs to swear to protect, and it genuinely feels fresh rather than a retread.

Perhaps the more fascinating element of the picture might be the visual feast we're given throughout the movie.  Gorgeously animated (hats off to the trio of directors who pulled this movie together), the picture combines multiple different animation and drawing styles to create a sumptuous banquet of colors and characters.  I was obviously partial to Cage's Spider-Man Noir, but the battle with Kingpin with a swirling vortex of color and sound is splendid, and even in a year where Pixar put out a movie & Wes Anderson was crafting very distinct cities in Isle of Dogs, it's hard to argue that the film wasn't the most breathtaking animation we saw on screens in 2018.

Emmy Predictions: The Comedies

We continue on from yesterday with a look at this year's Emmy Awards.  Tuesday we went through all of the Drama predictions (spoiler alert: Game of Thrones does well), but today it's all about making us laugh, and honestly, I'm a little bit wondering if we might see the ends of some streaks, as even the Emmy Awards have their limits on how often you can win a trophy.  Let's head right into the categories, shall we?

Best Comedy Series

Black-ish
Master of None
Modern Family
Silicon Valley
Transparent
Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt
Veep

The Lowdown: Last year, after five consecutive victories for Modern Family, Veep finally found a way into the conversation, thus stopping MF from making Emmy history.  With there finally being a show to focus on in a battle between the two series, I suspect that win repeats; part of why Modern Family kept winning (my theory, at least) is it was with a plurality, but no other show really screamed "Best Series!" in a way that felt obvious so it won with probably 35-40% of the vote.  Even new nominees Black-ish and Master of None seem like they're more here because there's not a lot of standout comedy on television these days rather than out of "we must honor this!"  As a result, expect Veep to win a second term (I'm sorry, I had to do it at least once).

Best Actor in a Comedy Series

Anthony Anderson, Black-ish
Aziz Ansari, Master of None
Will Forte, The Last Man on Earth
William H. Macy, Shameless
Thomas Middleditch, Silicon Valley
Jeffrey Tambor, Transparent

The Lowdown: Yikes.  Anyone else think this looks pretty weak?  I honestly hadn't really thought about the sorry state of comedy on television (mostly because I tend to think TV has hit a bit of a nadir compared to the previous decade in general), but man if you take drama out of the equation this becomes even more problematic.  I think that Tambor is probably going to win a second trophy since that feels like the right answer, but I wouldn't be stunned if Anderson or even William H. Macy (whose never won for this role) managed a mild surprise.  Still, with the Best Series citation it's likely going to be Tambor.

Best Actress in a Comedy Series

Ellie Kemper, Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt
Julia Louis-Dreyfus, Veep
Laurie Metcalf, Getting On
Tracee Ellis Ross, Black-ish
Amy Schumer, Inside Amy Schumer
Lily Tomlin, Grace and Frankie

The Lowdown: Not remembering who the nominees were, I kind of thought I'd go for an upset here and dethrone Julia Louis-Dreyfus.  I mean, after all, she's won five Emmys in this category, including the last four for Veep, but looking at these nominees it seems hard to imagine anyone getting it over an Emmy titan like JLD.  None of the returning nominees seem to have had the same impact this season, and the new nominees all got in based on a weak field.  I might buy an argument for Tomlin or Metcalf, both of whom are big enough Emmy favorites that they could rival Louis-Dreyfus on that front, but not for such underseen shows.  Props once again go to Selina Meyer.

Best Supporting Actor in a Comedy Series

Louise Anderson, Baskets
Andre Braugher, Brooklyn Nine-Nine
Tituss Burgess, Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt
Ty Burrell, Modern Family
Tony Hale, Veep
Keegan-Michael Key, Key and Peele
Matt Walsh, Veep

The Lowdown: Honestly, this may be the first Emmy race we've encountered where I genuinely have no idea.  Let's walk it back: Key, Walsh, and Braugher all seem to be here mostly out of love of show or name, but aren't actually a threat.  Part of me wonders in a seven-wide field, where the bar will be lower, if Ty Burrell is still an option, but I'm going to count him out as well.  That leaves Hale, who has won this twice, against the newcomers Burgess and Anderson.  I know the smart money is on Anderson, a longtime stalwart who got nominated somewhat out of nowhere, but will the Emmy voters go for a show that most hadn't even heard of prior to the nominations announcement?  My guess is no, and so I'm going with another trophy for Hale, who has a fantastic submission episode (if those still matter, he'll win).

Best Supporting Actress in a Comedy Series

Anna Chlumsky, Veep
Gaby Hoffmann, Transparent
Allison Janney, Mom
Judith Light, Transparent
Kate McKinnon, Saturday Night Live
Niecy Nash, Getting On

The Lowdown: Part of me wonders if McKinnon might do what no other SNL cast member seems capable of lately-winning in this category, if only for the Television Academy to get tacitly political (you just know she'd get out an "I hope I get to keep playing this part after November" to thunderous applause).  Part of me wonders if the Academy will realize that Judith Light hasn't won since her days as Karen Wolek on One Life to Live, and give her another trophy.  And part of me wonders if Anna Chlumsky is just doomed to be nominated again and again without ever taking that trophy.  But most of me wonders whether it will be Hale, Louis-Dreyfus, Tambor, or Allison Janney that makes the "let's mix it up a little" joke in the press room after winning yet another statue.

And there we go-we'll head into Miniseries tomorrow, but I have to say I'm a little disappointed.  I anticipated being adventurous (and still feel like Hale is vulnerable), but went with a full repeat of last year's winners.  Do you think there's any upset potential?  Anyone in particular you're hoping will take it?  Share in the comments below!

Grandma (2015)

Film: Grandma (2015)

Stars: Lily Tomlin, Julia Garner, Marcia Gay Harden, Judy Greer, Laverne Cox, Sam Elliott

Director: Paul Weitz

Oscar History: Tomlin scored at the Globes, but couldn't translate that over to a second nomination.

Snap Judgment Ranking: 4/5 stars

Slice-of-life films are probably my favorite movie genre of the moment, particularly modern slice-of-life movies.  The reason for this I can't quite explain, but I think it largely has to do with the fact that so much of your life is not spent on gigantic decisions or what you'd consider the "headlines," but instead on the run-of-the-mill, day-to-day things.  We love movies about falling in love and fulfilling a dream and gigantic moments like war or discovery, but the reality is that most days are spent doing on constant auto pilot and routine.  Slice-of-life movies have a weird purpose then, because a film like Grandma shows how even the most ordinary of days can occasionally have a great deal of meaning if you let them, and while I don't want to sound like a "chase your dream" sort of person, living a more purposeful existence is something that we should all learn to do, particularly if it's from a film as easily watchable as Grandma.

(Spoilers Ahead) We find this out in Grandma because Elle (Tomlin) is at a bit of a crossroads in her life.  We don't find her the day after her longtime partner has died or when she has decided to start loving again, but well after that when she has dumped Olivia (Greer), her girlfriend of a few months and her granddaughter Sage (Garner) has stopped by because she needs an abortion and doesn't have the $600 she requires to get the procedure done before her appointment later that day.  Elle takes Olivia on a road trip to find the money, and in the process revisits some old friends and old wounds.

The best part about Grandma is the way that Elle realizes about halfway through the film not only how much of her life has been left in pockets of productivity, but how few people come to mind as ones who truly matter.  She starts out with friends she know will actually care about her like Deathy (Cox), a tattoo artist who has a high opinion of Elle, and then slowly back-pedals to less and less likely candidates to give her the money, including eventually her ex-husband Karl (Elliott) and her estranged daughter Judy (Harden).  It's a weird conundrum for a woman who spent so much of her life identified in her happiness by the same person and who has coasted in some effects on her early career success, something an artist can do quite easily, but let's be fair here-we all kind of do.  The Peter Principle should be renamed a bit to also realize that those people who stay contented in the same position eventually come to the realization that perhaps they should have done more, something you can see Elle grappling with in the film when she is frequently questioned about both her success and failure as a writer.

The friend thing was more interesting to me, though, because it shows a weird side of loneliness, my favorite subject for the cinema.  Elle's only real friend in the world, we find out as the film progresses, was her partner Vi.  Her daughter doesn't really have time for her, her granddaughter is only stopping by because she's out of options, and all of the people she encounters as the movie progresses are from the past, not vibrant parts of her present.  As you get older you have to make more and more time sacrifices in order to balance work, family, and increasingly your own need for self-reflection.  As a result, you sacrifice friendships and relationships to strengthen others, and while that's usually a safe bet, eventually death or divorce cause you to realize you made the wrong choice, or a choice with consequences.  The great thing about this movie is we see it not just in Elle, but in those around her as well.  Look at the powerful scene with her ex-husband Karl, a man of many children and wives who has never gotten over the fact that his first wife left him for a woman and that she had an abortion, but later on still got pregnant in order to have a child.  While Tomlin is perpetually funny in the film, this is the scene that really shows what a strong performer she has been all of these years, and why both she and Elliott are such pros.  The way that she tiptoes around a man she knows she wronged, but also the hurt that comes from him, a man consumed by bitterness that happens when you love someone and they still break your heart-it's a gargantuan scene that could have been its own movie, but Grandma remains slice-of-life, and so we only get it for an instant which is that much more powerful.  Will Elle and Karl, who clearly have had unresolved business for decades, ever resolve those wounds?  Almost certainly not, and that's the greatness of this movie as it mirrors reality so well.  Life is rarely made of beginnings and ends-almost always it's just a series of middles, which is why we find ourselves so desperate for the movies where everything concludes the way we wished life would.  Grandma understands that, and that's where its power lies.

Those were my thoughts on Grandma, Lily Tomlin's first starring role in 27 years.  What were yours?  Have you seen the film yet (and if not, what are you waiting for)?  Are you enjoying this great year that Sam Elliott (also awesome in the wonderful I'll See You in My Dreams) is having?  And do you think Tomlin can get a second Oscar nomination forty years after her first?  Share your thoughts in the comments!

Six Biggest Questions for the Best Actress Race

If there's one thing about this past year and upcoming season of movies that I am thrilled about, it's that the Best Actress field looks amazing.  Seriously-I cannot tell you the last time I was this excited about all of the gourmet prospects set to hit me in the face and the wonderful little movies that I've already had the pleasure of encountering earlier in the year. There's a plethora of names from Oscar-winning stars to longtime character actors getting their due to up-and-coming players to a newcomer that seems to be in literally every film this year.  All-in-all it's a great time if you love women at the movies (and if you don't, what the hell is wrong with you?), but it also begs a few questions.  After all, while great film is by far its own reward, it's worth pondering which of this avalanche of names manages to make it to the Kodak as one of the five lucky contenders for a shiny gold man.  I'm less concerned right now with winners (though it's also exciting that at least as of now there's no one that has clearly positioned themselves at the front of that line either), but more on nominees, which is more exciting anyway (it's only every four years or so that this category is remotely competitive).  The below six questions seem to be the most critical in deciding who will be translating their buzz and reviews into a little bit of Oscar immortality:

1. Who is Committing Category Fraud?

Recent nominees Helen Hunt, Julia Roberts, and Hailee Steinfeld can all agree that getting a nomination is easier if you lie about your role in the film, and despite appearing in a vast majority of their most-recent Oscar-blessed movies, all three of these women scored dubious nominations for their "supporting" work onscreen (Roberts in particular still sticks in my craw since she's in more scenes than Streep who did go lead, gets the final scene, and is one of the biggest movie stars on the planet and could well have gained a lead nomination if she wanted to, letting the likes of her costars Margo Martindale and Julianne Nicholson maybe have a huge career boost from such a citation).  This year seems more than open season for potential category fraud, with the likes of Ellen Page (Freeheld), Rooney Mara & Cate Blanchett (Carol), and Alicia Vikander (The Danish Girl) all oddly positioned to go either lead or supporting, though critics say they should all be competing in the lead race.  Blanchett has a bit of a history with going supporting when she shouldn't (she had nothing to say about such a thing when she did it for Notes on a Scandal), and no film has been nominated twice for Best Actress since Thelma & Louise in 1991 so Carol in particular seems susceptible to fraud.  While I'd love for some campaign to say "screw it" and shoot for the stars (trust me, it would be far better for press for a film like Carol if both Mara and Blanchett were competing against each other in lead, and probably help them much more in gaining actual votes because of the "competition" angle), I'm doubtful.  The question is which of these women decide to go supporting.  In the case of Vikander in particular, this could be a make-or-break moment for women like Kate Winslet, Rachel McAdams, and Jennifer Jason Leigh who are going to be making a play to actually win the supporting trophy (Vikander would start out with a huge advantage considering her film's buzz and the year she's had).  It's also worth noting that a confusing campaign could hurt these women (look at Scarlett Johansson's big miss in 2003) or the Academy could ignore it (Keisha Castle-Hughes and Kate Winslet in The Reader comes to mind).

2. Which Cate do we pick?

Assuming that Blanchett doesn't go supporting for Carol, the Academy is left with its biggest conundrum in this category since perhaps 2001, as Blanchett will have two films that are in contention, not just one.  Both Carol and Truth are star vehicles for Blanchett, who is probably due for an afterglow nomination after her major triumph in Blue Jasmine, but she could end up missing for both because of vote-splitting.  It's worth noting that in 2001 Nicole Kidman was skipped at the SAG Awards for her work in both Moulin Rouge! and The Others, and many people thought that Tilda Swinton or Nia Vardalos might earn a nomination by technicality as Kidman had active campaigns for both films potentially splitting her support.  While Kidman ended up with her first nomination that year, Scarlett Johansson wasn't so lucky two years later.  Blanchett could try the route employed by Kate Winslet in 2008 (pushing one to supporting), but that still only resulted in one nomination for The Reader as the Academy refused such nonsense.  How Blanchett's campaign pans out could play a major role in whether she gets to the Final Five either in lead or supporting (or both).

3. Is the Academy sick of Jennifer Lawrence and David O. Russell?

I can't tell right now whether or not the public is sick of J. Law-it's hard to know, though it's been a while since we have had a movie star that demanded this kind of polarized reactions.  Still, this could be a big moment for the Academy as Joy is clearly designed to continue Russell's amazing consecutive run of Best Picture nominees, and Lawrence could make history as the youngest actor to score four nominations, besting Jennifer Jones.  The question is whether or not this will work for her-if the slight stench coming off the X-Men and Hunger Games franchises (diminishing returns, both commercially and critically) hurts her, she could be in for a surprise snub.  However if she continues to be the star of the moment, it feels like Joy will be yet another chance to reward her (perhaps even with a second trophy).

4. Will the Buzz Translate?

Right now there are four actresses who are clearly critical favorites but who have not had their Oscar moment that could potentially change all that in a few months (again, remember that we don't really have a frontrunner quite yet).  Brie Larson (Room), Emily Blunt (Sicario), Saoirse Ronan (Brooklyn), and Carey Mulligan (Suffragette) have not won much in terms of hardware (and only the latter two have scored with the Oscars), but they're all in positions in their career where a nomination could happen, and all have strong reviews coming out of their respective film festivals.  The question here is what happens as a result of that.  People can go from festival buzz all the way to the Kodak (look at Jennifer Lawrence in Winter's Bone or Gabourey Sidibe in Precious) or they can be completely forgotten like Elizabeth Olsen in Martha Marcy Mae Marlene.  The campaigns for these actresses, as well as public reaction to their relatively small films will be critical, but I would be stunned if 1-2 didn't end up in contention later this year.

5. Time for an Oscar Favorite?

Occasionally Oscar gets a little nostalgic or repetitive, and decides it must have a certain former winner back in the fold for whatever reason.  In 2009, despite Emily Blunt making far more sense on paper (up-and-comer, real-life person, never honored, Globe nominee in Drama) for The Young Victoria, the Academy decided that it must have Helen Mirren randomly nominated for The Last Station, a nomination I am guessing even Mirren herself forgets happened.  Marion Cotillard last year trumped Jennifer Aniston for a similar sort of situation, though here she at least had better reviews.  The question becomes which "longshot" former winner might be invited back for another round in the fifth slot?  I am not counting Blanchett and Lawrence here since they seem more-than-likely to be in the conversation regardless and fifth-slots never actually win the trophy (which both of these women seem like strong possibilities to do), but instead Sandra Bullock (Our Brand is Crisis), Julianne Moore (Freeheld), Maggie Smith (The Lady in the Van), and even Cotillard again for Macbeth.  Bullock probably has the best shot considering the prestige behind her project (from the men who brought you Argo), but any of these women could theoretically make it if they get good enough reviews and Oscar's feeling it.  And then of course it's always unwise to totally discount Meryl Streep, whose work in Ricki and the Flash was light, but then again so was her performance in Music of the Heart and that still got through.

6. Will Anyone Get an "It's Time" Nomination?

One of the sadder things about the Best Actress race is that, unlike the Best Actor field where the likes of Gary Oldman, Mickey Rourke, and Frank Langella all managed to score late-in-their-career "you should have been an Oscar nominee by now" sorts of nominations, the Best Actress field rarely does this, going instead for the tried-and-true former winners/nominees and the PYT's.  This year, however, three women could be looking at their very first trophy, two of them their very first nomination.  Charlotte Rampling (45 Years), Lily Tomlin (Grandma), and Blythe Danner (I'll See You in My Dreams) all three have gotten plaudits from festivals and critics, and in the case of Danner she even got a bonafide hit.  If they were men with the careers they had, we'd likely be pushing them hard for nominations, but this year is ultra competitive and this category isn't as kind to "career achievement" style first nominations.  I suspect that all three will get pushes from their studios, but the question is will any of them catch fire?  Tomlin in particular has been having a major career moment what with the Kennedy Center Honor and a recent TV series/Emmy nomination.  Part of me wonders if she might actually be able to win the thing, if she can land the nomination.

And there you have it folks-the six biggest questions for this year's Best Actress race.  What are your answers to these questions and what five women seem most likely to succeed?  Share your thoughts below!

2015 Emmy Predictions: The Comedies

The fun thing about the Emmys is that there are no precursors (at least none that have remotely shown their ability to predict the winners yet, so a lot of it is based on gut and history, and since the Emmy Awards will be later this month on September 20th, I figured it was time for to get my predictions out into the world.  Without further adieu, here are my predictions for the 2015 Emmy Awards in Comedy (we'll do Drama and Miniseries later this week):

(As a reminder I don't do Runners-Up or Second Place for predictions as I think that's kind of copping out)

Best Comedy Series

Louie
Modern Family
Parks and Recreation
Silicon Valley
Transparent
Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt
Veep

The Lowdown: One of the last strongholds of the broadcast networks disappeared this year, as ABC and NBC now find themselves in the minority compared with FX, Netflix, Amazon, and of course HBO.  Does that mean that the winner, who has been Modern Family for years, may falter?  If it manages to win it will officially break its tie with Frasier and become the most-honored show in the history of the category, but I feel like enough people don't want that to happen that it won't make it (though, like last year, it could well benefit from vote-splitting).  My money is on either Transparent or Veep-Transparent has the advantage of having never lost before (this category likes to honor from the beginning), but Veep has been overdue for a while and has the advantage of coming off what many consider its finest season.  I wouldn't be surprised by either, but I'm going with...
My Prediction: Veep

Best Actor in a Comedy

Anthony Anderson, Blackish
Don Cheadle, House of Lies
Louis CK, Louie
Will Forte, The Last Man on Earth
Matt LeBlanc, Episodes
William H. Macy, Shameless
Jeffrey Tambor, Transparent

The Lowdown: Without perennial winner Jim Parsons included (easily the biggest surprise of Emmy nomination morning), it's looking more-and-more likely that Jeffrey Tambor will walk away with the trophy.  Honestly I can't imagine any of the other men making it, as only CK is in a Best Series nominee and it's hardly what one would consider the best season of Louie.  Tambor on the other hand is in the zeitgeist hit, is a TV veteran, and has actually been nominated seven times at the Emmy Awards without picking up the trophy.
My Prediction: Jeffrey Tambor

Best Actress in a Comedy

Julia Louis-Dreyfus, Veep
Edie Falco, Nurse Jackie
Lisa Kudrow, The Comeback
Amy Poehler, Parks and Recreation
Amy Schumer, Inside Amy Schumer
Lily Tomlin, Grace and Frankie

The Lowdown: Julianne Moore has an Oscar.  Kelli O'Hara has a Tony.  Will Emmy follow through and finally end Amy Poehler's losing streak?  The thirteen-time nominee would be a slam dunk, in my opinion, were she not already certain to get an award at the Creative Arts Emmys for hosting the Golden Globes.  As a result, I think the raves for Veep and the fact that no one else other than perhaps Schumer (who could pull something similar to Melissa McCarthy a few years ago considering they were both newfound movie stars in the wake of a first-time Emmy acting nomination) has a shot means that JLD may well nab her sixth Emmy Award.
My Prediction: Julia Louis-Dreyfus

Best Supporting Actor in a Comedy

Andre Braugher, Brooklyn Nine-Nine
Tituss Burgess, Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt
Ty Burrell, Modern Family
Adam Driver, Girls
Tony Hale, Veep
Keegan Michael Key, Key and Peele

The Lowdown: With only one Modern Family guy in contention, it's not out of the question that Ty Burrell takes a third trophy here, despite how many people have written off MF and its awards chances.  The reality is that the Emmys like to repeat, and he's clearly quite popular with the Academy (the same can be said for Tony Hale, also a contender).  That being said, I suspect they'll go for new blood and while Unbreakable ended up underwhelming a little bit (by not nabbing Ellie Kemper a citation for her starring role), there's a good chance that its major haul will result in at least one trophy, so I imagine Burgess takes home his first award.
My Prediction: Tituss Burgess

Best Supporting Actress in a Comedy

Mayim Bialik, The Big Bang Theory
Julie Bowen, Modern Family
Anna Chlumsky, Veep
Gaby Hoffmann, Transparent
Allison Janney, Mom
Jane Krawkoski, Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt
Kate McKinnon, Saturday Night Live
Niecy Nash, Getting On

The Lowdown: I still can't get past Niecy Nash's nomination here-absolutely out of nowhere for a series very few people have heard of, though she's been a TV trouper for so many years I'm guessing (and hoping) she's enjoying this moment.  The rest of the contenders all probably have their eyes a bit more focused on a win, though the eight-wide field makes vote-splitting likely, which surely will help perennial Emmy champ (she has six) Allison Janney in her quest for a seventh.  If Unbreakable is stronger than I suspect Jane Krakowski could get in (she's a 4-time loser and it could be "time") or if Veep is stronger consistent nominee Anna Chlumsky could also make it, but I think Janney has to be considered the favorite at this point.
My Prediction: Allison Janney

Those are my predictions-what are yours?  Who are you rooting for on Emmy night?  Share your thoughts in the comments!

The State of the Race: Best Actress

It's never too early to talk about Oscar, at least in my mind, and based on some of the reactions out of Cannes this past week, journalists tend to agree.  The recent spate of buzz is from the Best Actress race,  where Emily Blunt's Sicario is gaining raves and Oscar talk.  This makes sense, of course, as Blunt is the position in her career where Oscar seems destined to call.  At 32, she's at roughly the right age for both global superstardom (most major female stars ascend sometime between about 28 and 35), and has been receiving accolades everywhere except for the Kodak.  She has the weirdly dubious distinction of having four Golden Globe film nominations without a single Oscar nomination (only nine actors in history have ever done this), and they've been all over the place, from scene-stealing in The Devil Wears Prada to playing a monarch in The Young Victoria to the lead in a major musical in Into the Woods (also Salmon Fishing in the Yemen which...was in a weak year for comedy).  Blunt seems destined to be in this year's Oscar/Globe conversation once again, and I'm starting to feel may be one of the big five.

But who else is going to be amongst one of our favorite categories?  That's the question, and like most years, it's starting to look more and more like it's just going to be a repeat of names, with Blunt being an obvious exception (and potentially, as a result, gaining a leg-up in taking an actual trophy).  Most of the names that I'm seeing pop up are former winners.  Toward the top of that list is Cate Blanchett in Carol, which she is currently making the rounds for in Cannes and is gaining loads of headlines for her lesbian sex scenes with Rooney Mara, but I suspect toward the end of the year the "daring" of those headlines will pay off when she vies for her seventh Oscar nomination.  Joining her could be another constant presence at the Oscars recently named Jennifer Lawrence, who is doing her third turn in a David O. Russell movie with Joy.  While all things are true until they're not, it's worth noting that Lawrence scored nominations for both of her most recent Russell films, and this is a period film which is something that Oscar tends to gravitate toward-three years between Oscars is actually pretty common-could Lawrence be battling it out for a second trophy?

Other former winners in the conversation include Meryl Streep (when is she not?), who has yet another musical-comedy style role in Ricki and the Flash.  The trailer wasn't my favorite, to be honest (it looked pretty damn generic), but Meryl is typically lightning and she managed to get nominated for Music of the Heart, so counting her out is ALWAYS a bad idea.  Julianne Moore would probably be at the top of the heap were she not also last year's winner, as Freeheld has lots of baity hooks (cancer, lesbian, real life), though it remains to be seen if she can be nominated as Best Actress while her equal screen-time partner Ellen Page goes supporting (no pair of actresses have been nominated for Best Actress in the same film since 1991's Thelma & Louise, though I would LOVE to see that run end this year with Freeheld and Carol both on the table).  Honestly-we could be in a weird situation where the last four winners of the category and Blunt are all competing for the actual trophy.  However, there's a few longer shot former winners in Charlize Theron (The Last Face), Kate Winslet (The Dressmaker), Angelina Jolie (By the Sea), Maggie Smith (The Lady in the Van), and Marion Cotillard (Macbeth) in the conversation as well.

Still, we could see a few former supporting nominees emerge from the top of the heap if the iron is hot. Two in particular have gained real traction, and couldn't have more diverse career paths.  Saoirse Ronan, only 21 years of age, could be looking at a second nomination to follow-up her childhood nod for Atonement (thus becoming the first actor to be nominated as both an adult and a child since Jodie Foster) for Brooklyn, a film about the Irish immigrant experience that got raves out of Sundance this past season.  On the opposite end of the spectrum is Lily Tomlin, who is definitely having a moment right now in pop culture: she just won the Kennedy Center Honor, is starring in a new series from Netflix with her 9 to 5 costar Jane Fonda, and at 75 is getting her first lead role in ages with Grandma, a movie that got her huge triumphs out of Sundance.  It's worth noting that it's been forty years since her first Oscar nomination, which is one year longer than the time span between Helen Hayes two Oscar nominations (I believe this would give Tomlin the record-someone call me out in the comments if this isn't correct), giving a lot of compelling evidence for the popular Tomlin to actually win if she manages to pull through the season with a hit.  The only other former nominee that has a decent shot at a nomination is Carey Mulligan, who is getting strong reviews for Suffragette, but it's always hard to make bets on British issue pictures, as we saw with Made in Dagenham a few years back

Rounding out the list are a few longer shots that haven't been nominated before.  Sight unseen (this is always major guesswork this early in the season) it doesn't appear like anyone has the kind of advantage that Blunt does to gain the status of "Oscar nominee," but a few women are trying.  Toward the top of the list, joining Tomlin in the "career honors" section is Charlotte Rampling, whose film 45 Years got picked up by Sundance Selects and the iconic English star won the Best Actress prize at the Berlinale this past year.  Another actor trying for "career honors" is Blythe Danner, who has had more luck in recent years with stage and television, but is an actor who has worked with EVERYONE and has the potential for a sleeper hit coming out soon with rave reviews for I'll See You in My Dreams headed to Gwyneth's mom (and you know that Paltrow would be out pushing hard for her mom with the press).  Amongst the younger set is Alicia Vikander, who could be either lead or supporting in The Danish Girl, though the actress has eight films out in 2015, so she could cancel herself out all-over-the-place or could end up doubly-nominated-it's too soon to tell.  Finally, you can never entirely count-out a musical biopic, and Zoe Saldana's portrayal of Nina Simone could be catnip to Oscar voters provided the film gets a distributor.

Those are kind of where we're at right now for Best Actress-what are your thoughts?  Who do you think emerges from this pack and makes it to the final five?  What performances are you most excited for?  And do you think this is Emily Blunt's year?  Share in the comments!

2014 Kennedy Center Honors

Congratulations go out to Tom Hanks, Lily Tomlin, Al Green, Sting, and Patricia McBride, winners of this year's Kennedy Center Honors.  While this is a blog that focuses mostly on cinema when it comes to awards, the name that tugs most closely at my heart of those five is actually Al Green, who is one of my all-time favorite singers and has the sexiest voice in modern music (so says I, and countless others). It's fitting that he is paired with the equally sexy Sting, who is a frequent Oscar nominee and has three OVP songs we're going to be getting to likely in the next year.

Of course, the two film stars are the ones whose name you are probably gravitating for, and for Hanks, this is a monumental Preakness in his quest for the Lifetime Achievement Award Triple Crown.  Hanks won the AFI Life Achievement Award at the record young age of 45 (still an eyebrow-raiser if you ask me) and at 58 is by far the youngest of this bunch of recipients, though seems slightly more age appropriate. Hanks just needs to win the Cecil B. DeMille Award to complete his Triple Crown, an award he will surely receive in the next decade (possibly fairly soon-the DeMille Award seems to go younger with recipients than the other two legs).

Tomlin starts her Triple Crown journey oddly enough the same year as her 9 to 5 costar Jane Fonda won the AFI Award (and Tomlin can take heart in knowing that Dolly Parton won the Kennedy Center Honor eight years ago, so they are all tied up).  For the curious, Tomlin and Hanks have never starred in a film together despite decades of acting in Hollywood, but they did work on a film together.  In 2006, Tomlin was a voice actor in the animated film The Ant Bully, a film that Hanks produced.  So if you want to celebrate by seeing a long-forgotten animated film, I'd say go for it.  Or you could rent Nashville and Saving Private Ryan and have a far better time.

Congrats to all of the winners!

Creative Arts Emmy Winners...

Sorry for the couple day absence-I've been trying to juggle about sixteen different balls (...a metaphor, not a euphemism) for the past few days and have apparently dropped a couple.  We'll be back with our regularly scheduled politics, movies, and other such loveliness tomorrow evening, but tonight I just wanted to quickly chime in on a few of my favorite wins from yesterday's Creative Arts Emmy Awards.

I know the big winner of the night was clearly and deservedly Bob Newhart (speaking of the Kennedy Center Honors, shouldn't they have thought of him by now?), and so I'll lead with him, even though the next win got me more excited.  The guest categories occasionally seem a tad indulgent at the Emmy Awards (there are, by my count, at least seventeen different categories that reward actors at the primetime Emmy Awards alone, and that's not counting if they shuffle over and produce their work), but at least they're using the category for good when they reward Newhart for his befuddled former TV scientist on The Big Bang Theory, and by proxy, a lifetime of excellent television comedy.

But for me, and perhaps only for myself and the wonderful actress, there's no getting around how divine it is that Melissa Leo now has an Emmy to go right next to her Oscar (God bless you Louis CK for hiring my beloved).  Melissa Leo is one of my favorite performers right now (I get visibly gleeful when I find out she's in a movie I'm watching), and anyone who can find a video of her actually accepting this award gets my eternal love and devotion.

Carrie Preston, another incredibly talented character actress also pulled off a victory, in her case for a guest spot on The Good Wife (a show I've never watched, but I've heard is better than it looks, considering the procedural angle and the CBS-branding), so well-done to her.  Does she have a fairly recurring role on that show (or True Blood)?  If not, could someone figure out a way for her to get her own series?  Perhaps a buddy comedy with Melissa Leo (OMG-someone make this happen!)

And we'll end with another fab actress (who could be Preston and Leo's boss on the buddy comedy...just saying), Ms. Lily Tomlin.  While Tomlin has never landed that Oscar, she has a mountain of Emmys, so this doesn't carry quite the same weight as the first-time luck for Bob, Melissa, and Carrie, but Lily Tomlin is a treasure, so I needed to recognize her.  And perhaps, someday, maybe Oscar or the Kennedy Center Honors will too?

What was your favorite win of the evening?  Are you looking forward to this Sunday?  And would you watch a Leo/Preston/Tomlin sitcom?  Share in the comments!

Darren Criss + Oscar Trivia = Marry Me Please!

I don't always catch Kathy Griffin's (whom I adore) talk show, but last night she had my beloved Darren Criss on, so I couldn't miss it.

And I have to say, I didn't think I could love Darren Criss more, but when Kathy was trying to stump him by asking what Lily Tomlin was nominated for an Oscar for, and he responded, matter-of-factly, "Nashville, and she lost to Shampoo," my heart fluttered.  Curly-haired, voice-of-an-angel with the crazy amazing hazel eyes knows Oscar trivia?  You can't even fathom the smile that brings to my face.  Just for fun, below is a picture with Lily in her Oscar dress, and two of Darren, just because.

Don't you just love Lily Tomlin-how many people wear a tiara to the Oscars?