On Saturday we tackled the Miniseries/TV movie races for the
Emmys, so now we’ll go with the big five Comedy races (I’m not even going to
begin to predict the Guest categories-if you have a pool going, inevitably pick
Ellen Burstyn, Cloris Leachman, Bob Newhart, and critically-celebrated SNL hosts and you’ll be fine, as they
are always nominated).
Best Comedy Series
1. Modern Family
2. The Big Bang Theory
3. Louie
4. Veep
5. Orange is the New
Black
6. Girls
The Lowdown: Before
you start to argue with me, this is for a nomination, not a win, so Modern Family and The Big Bang Theory, currently two of the biggest cash cows on
network television thanks to syndication, are certainly going to at least
compete here (for the record, the Emmys have a six-wide field for their big
categories, so I’m not cheating by listing six). Veep, Louie, and Girls all have that critically-acclaimed
angle, and while none of them feel quite like “winners” (and Girls in particular seems vulnerable), I
doubt they miss their nomination.
Finally, there’s the quintessential zeitgeist show Orange is the New Black which under normal circumstances would be
too edgy for Emmy (she’s a traditional girl), but the critical acclaim and
gigantic press (along with the blessing Netflix received last year for House of Cards) makes this the likely
recipient of 30 Rock's slot. If it (or Girls) fall, expect Brooklyn Nine-Nine (which will be nominated in the acting races) to
use its critical darling on a network station angle (a great rarity these days)
to break into the club.
The Winner?: If
it can make it to a nomination, I think Orange
is the New Black has the momentum to finally oust Modern Family, which seems certain to miss after four years on the
top. Also watch out for Big Bang, which the Emmys may want to acknowledge
considering its perch as one of the biggest shows of the decade.
Best Actor in a
Comedy
1. Jim Parsons, The
Big Bang Theory
2. Louis C.K., Louie
3. Don Cheadle, House
of Lies
4. Andy Samberg, Brooklyn
Nine-Nine
5. Matt LeBlanc, Episodes
6. William H. Macy, Shameless
The Lowdown: A
lot of people seem to be predicting Robin Williams for The Crazy Ones, and in one way I get it-he’s a former TV star who
made a splashy return to television after winning an Oscar and becoming a legend. However, Emmy doesn’t usually go for
the cancelled shows unless they were cancelled of their own accord, and so I’m
going with Macy, who has a long run on Shameless
(and that show shifting to Comedy, which should help in a weaker field) and
has long been an Emmy favorite.
With the exception of Samberg, the other four men are frequent nominees
at an awards show that loves frequent nominees, and Samberg’s nomination after
his big Globe win seems inevitable.
The Winner?: If
he manages to land a nomination for Best Series, Samberg could be the start of
a run of wins. Otherwise, I’d
guess this is between a fourth win for Parsons or CK finally cracking through
in this field.
Best Actress in a
Comedy
1. Julia Louis-Dreyfus, Veep
2. Amy Poehler, Parks
and Recreation
3. Edie Falco, Nurse
Jackie
4. Lena Dunham, Girls
5. Taylor Schilling, Orange
is the New Black
6. Anna Faris, Mom
The Lowdown: The
first three are mortal locks, and I feel like Dunham is too famous to get
snubbed for both Series and Actress (I’m currently predicting she doesn’t have to worry
about either). Schilling benefits
from a weak field (not to slam her, but it’s hard to get in with Emmy if you
don’t have a previous nomination, so she’s not only setting herself up for
success this year, but in future, more difficult years). The final slot is actually a crapshoot. Faris makes sense because Chuck Lorre
stars tend to get Emmy nominations, but this could just as easily be Melissa
McCarthy for Mike and Molly, Mindy
Kaling for The Mindy Project, or even
Wendi McLendon-Covey for The Goldbergs (which
was a surprise hit).
The Winner?: Probably
Louis-Dreyfus, who had an awesome season and is helped by a weak field. If anyone tops her, it could well be
Poehler, who has ten Emmy nominations and no wins, and just picked up a Golden
Globe. Then again, sentiment
didn’t work for Jane Kaczmarek or Steve Carell, and it’s not even Poehler’s
final season…so probably Louis-Dreyfus.
Best Supporting Actor
in a Comedy
1. Ty Burrell, Modern
Family
2. Andre Braugher, Brooklyn
Nine-Nine
3. Tony Hale, Veep
4. Jesse Tyler Ferguson, Modern
Family
5. Eric Stonestreet, Modern
Family
6. Adam Driver, Girls
The Lowdown: Occasionally
you have to defy all reason in a category and go with someone you love, which
is what I’m doing with Adam Driver.
Driver doesn’t make quite as much sense as Girls starts to wind down a bit in cultural significance, but he
had such a good season that I’m picking him over more likely Ed O’Neill (who
has missed with Emmy before and wasn’t really the focus this year). All of the other nominees seem pretty
much entrenched, but Eric Stonestreet’s stunning miss last year does mean that anything
could happen with so many contenders from the same show.
The Winner?: Probably
Andre Braugher-Modern Family stars
will split their awards, Hale just won, and Driver is too young to beat such a
seasoned crew. Plus, the Emmys
love Andre Braugher.
Best Supporting
Actress in a Comedy
1. Julie Bowen, Modern
Family
2. Allison Janney, Mom
3. Mayim Bialik, The
Big Bang Theory
4. Sofia Vergara, Modern
Family
5. Kate Mulgrew, Orange
is the New Black
6. Merritt Wever, Nurse
Jackie
The Lowdown: After
four pretty lackluster races, we finally arrive at a real competition for a
nomination (perhaps it will be a repeat of last year and they’ll need seven
again?). While Jane Lynch is
surely out, the other women from last year are back as contenders, but are joined
by two major competitors: Allison Janney as the scene-stealer of Mom and Kate Mulgrew in Orange is the New Black. Janney is an Emmy favorite (four
trophies for The West Wing) so she’s
in. However, I cannot quite get a
hold on Mulgrew vs. Wever vs. Chlumsky vs. maybe Margo Martindale in The Millers. All four women have arguments in their corner, so I’m going
with Mulgrew (who has gotten mad press for the season two rollout) and Wever
(who just won, and gave a particularly memorable speech last year) over Chlumsky and
Martindale, but any combination of these four women for the final two slots
makes sense.
The Winner?: Emmy
isn’t very sentimental, but you have to assume that the voters are aware that
Sofia Vergara, the breakout star of Modern
Family, should have won by now, right? However, if she couldn’t win last year with her pregnancy
plotline, I find it difficult to believe she’ll pull it off now. I’m guessing that the Chuck Lorre
machine will be able to win this one for Janney.
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