OVP: Original Song (2021)

OVP: Best Original Song (2021)

The Nominees Were...

"Be Alive," Music & Lyric by Dixson and Beyonce Knowles-Carter, King Richard

"Dos Oruguitas," Music & Lyric by Lin-Manuel Miranda, Encanto

"Down to Joy," Music & Lyric by Van Morrison, Belfast

"No Time to Die," Music & Lyric by Billie Eilish & Finneas O'Connell, No Time to Die

"Somehow You Do," Music & Lyric by Diane Warren, Four Good Days

My Thoughts: We are moving into the music categories today for the 2021 Oscars, and the rather star-studded nominees of the Best Original Song category.  The Golden Globes are kind of famous for nominating big name musicians because the Globes love them some celebrities, which is odd because they don't actually have the singers perform, so really it's just Lorde or Taylor Swift in a quick shot from their tables rather than the elaborate production numbers you'd get at the Oscars.  But Oscar in 2021 was very willing to get behind some big names with their nominees, and for the most part it paid off.

There is no more revered name in American pop music presently than Beyonce Knowles, who got her first Oscar (despite having tried to get one for almost 15 years) in 2021 for King Richard.  I have to tread lightly (I've seen the Saturday Night Live sketches and also have friends who worship Beyonce), but I'll just say that I am someone who likes some of her music, but not all of it.  "Be Alive," would be on the list of songs I do enjoy of hers-I think there's a great crescendo to it, and it's the sort of thing that would've become a radio hit if soundtracks had the cache they once did on the radio.  I will knock it for two things, though.  First, it's an end credits song, which I generally think should lose points unless they truly integrate into the film itself.  Secondly, it doesn't really match the tenure of the film-there's not enough in this that feels like it matches the world of King Richard...it feels more soulful and soaring than the familial drama that isn't willing to provide much depth to its subjects.

Another credits song, though one that I'm going to be more forgiving of, is "No Time to Die," which featured one of my favorite pop acts right now, Billie Eilish.  Eilish does a better job of capturing the spirit of not just her film, but honestly of trying to encapsulate the rather expansive (and not always successful) plotting of No Time to Die as a large extension of the other Daniel Craig 007 flicks.  "I should've known, I'd leave alone" is an ominous opening lyric to the song, but it becomes more provocative the longer you get into the movie.  This is one of the best recent Bond themes, and one of the few that feel inseparable from the film itself.

"Down to Joy," is another song that is not performed onscreen, and feels in my opinion in the same vein as "Be Alive" in King Richard.  Van Morrison's tune is good (though I will admit on its surface, not as good as Beyonce's), but it feels a bit too upbeat for a movie that struggles towards its end to find an identity.  It's both happy and sad, which is the point of Belfast (a movie I liked WAY more than your average film fan online), in that it gives us the best and worst of life, which is also what life truly is, a combination of the best & worst days and finding the people to spend/endure both with.  But the song itself can't capture that, as it feels too up tempo for the film.  It also doesn't help that "Everlasting Love" is both a better fit and a far more memorable (and sexier) moment in the movie, to the point where I'm honestly surprised Oscar even remembered "Down to Joy" existed.

Our last credits song is "Somehow You Do."  This is not a truly bad Diane Warren song (like, say, "Applause" this past year), but it is unnecessary.  The movie's lyrics are rife with cliche and overstuffed with banal platitudes.  Getting Reba McEntire, who is one of those artists who can make cliche feel like it's new, to sing it is the best decision Warren made, but this is not a good movie and it's certainly not appropriate to have in an Oscar-nominated category given there was plenty of fine tunes that we could've replaced it with.  Not to be mean, but Warren was once a legend who was very good at writing massive hits...can we wait to honor her with a nomination when she lives up to that reputation, please?

The final song is the only one that features organically into the movie, though unlike most of the songs in Encanto, it is done as a backdrop rather than performed in the movie.  In many ways "Dos Oruguitas" is borrowing from the Coco soundtrack (which is weird because it's the only song by Lin-Manuel Miranda in the movie that doesn't really feel like it's an LMM song), using it in the same way "Remember Me" is used as a tear-jerking moment late in the picture to get the waterworks going.  I'll talk about the big mistake Disney made here in a second, but if we're judging just on the song itself, it's very good and effective, if not quite as unique as it probably should be given the reputation Disney has and that we're judging on a tough curve.  But I like it.

Other Precursor Contenders: The Golden Globes went with Billie Eilish for their win, and kept almost the entire Oscar lineup except they skipped Diane Warren in favor of "Here I Am" from Respect (the Globes, never one to miss a celebrity, picked the song written by Jennifer Hudson & Carole King).  The Grammys split their eligibility windows, so at the 64th Grammys (held in 2022) they nominated one of the 2021 films ("Here I Am") which lost to Bo Burnham's "All Eyes on Me" while in 2023 they gave the trophy to "We Don't Talk About Bruno" from Encanto atop "Be Alive,"...overall only three 2021 film songs were nominated at Grammys, a pretty dour indictment on a weak year.  In terms of sixth place I'm going to assume it was one of the forgettable songs from Best Picture nominees (either "Beyond the Shore" from CODA or "Just Look Up" from Don't Look Up).

Songs I Would Have Nominated: I personally hate the new nominations process for Oscar, where they only selectively submit certain songs rather than let nominations happen organically (or strategically).  This is particularly a problem in a weak year like 2021, where I'd nominate three Encanto songs, including "We Don't Talk About Bruno" which would've been a superb winner and gotten Lin-Manuel Miranda his inevitable Oscar.  I also want to call out right now that if there was any way that Bo Burnham was eligible (he wasn't, but one wonders given the loose rules in 2021 if he should've been), he would've gotten 3-4 of my nominations as Inside remains my single favorite achievement in any medium in 2021.

Oscar’s Choice: With Bruno left unspoken, Billie Eilish made it 3/3 for the last few Bond outings, besting Beyonce.

My Choice: I'll also go with Eilish.  Her credits song is both the best piece of music of the four credits songs, and also the one that feels the most at-home in the movie itself.  Following her would be Encanto, King Richard, Belfast, and Four Good Days.

Those are my thoughts-how about yours?  Are we all team Billie, or does someone want to try their own thing here?  Do you wish that they'd go back to actually submitting all eligible songs in a given year?  And who gets a competitive Oscar first-Beyonce, Lin-Manuel Miranda, or Diane Warren?  Share your thoughts below!

Also in 2021: Production Design, Cinematography, Costume, Film Editing, Visual Effects, Makeup & Hairstyling, Previously in 2021

Past Best Original Song Contests: 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020

Vivo (2021)

Film: Vivo (2021)

Stars: Lin-Manuel Miranda, Ynairaly Simo, Zoe Saldana, Juan de Marcos Gonzalez, Brian Tyree Henry, Nicole Byer, Gloria Estefan

Director: Kirk DeMicco

Oscar History: No nominations

Snap Judgment Ranking: 2/5 stars

We're finishing off our week looking at 2021 films, many of them Oscar contenders, with an unexpected movie.  After all, if you're thinking about a 2021 animated musical featuring the songs of Lin-Manuel Miranda, you'd assume that I'd be discussing Encanto, a film that seems destined to be nominated for (and perhaps even win) Best Animated Feature next year at the Oscars.  But I'm going to subvert expectations (mostly because last Saturday I wanted something mindless & that I could just sort of process rather than think super hard about late in the evening...I'm not a night person) by reviewing the forgotten Miranda musical of 2021, Vivo.  Yes, even the most devoted of film fans might have forgotten about Vivo, which came-and-went without so much as a bump on the Film Twitter scale, and I was curious as to why.  After all, while Miranda has become something of a pop culture punching bag in the past year, and his output strategy (he's had four major studio releases this year, all with musical quotient, risking a serious amount of "too much" from the public) is questionable, he's still a bonafide celebrity & one of the most important musical voices in the country.  I was curious as to why Vivo seemed to slip onto Netflix without anyone really noticing.

(Spoilers Ahead) The movie is about Vivo (Miranda), a singer-musician monkey (excuse me, kinkajou, as we learn later in the picture), who performs on the streets of Havana with his best friend Andres (Gonzalez).  Andres learns that his long-lost love Marta (Estefan), who is now a legendary singer but whom he knew before she was famous, is giving her farewell performance and has invited him to attend.  He wants to go to confess his love for her, but Vivo refuses and runs away.  When he returns, he finds that Andres has died, and after accidentally stowing away with his great-niece Gabi (Simo), an atypical girl who enjoys drumming (a pastime she shared with her now-deceased father), the two form a bond to wander through the Everglades & get to Marta's last concert to share a song that Andres wrote for her, confessing his love.

I honestly don't really need a spoiler alert to let you know that they get there, even if they have to face a burmese python, some Type-A girl scouts, and Gabi's frazzled single mother along the way.  Vivo might have disappeared not because it's a bad movie (it's not, really, though I'm going with 2-stars for reasons I'm about to get into) but because it's a boring one.  There's nothing distinctive here-the story goes on the same beats.  We're expected to assume that Gabi has no friends because she's atypical, but she's a sweet, gregarious girl who might not be friends with the girls that are presented in this picture, but surely would have sought out a similarly-minded pal by now (even if everyone in the film seems frightened by her dyed purple hair).  This is the sort of lazy writing you get from an animated film 15 years ago & it felt cliche then-in 2021, I expect something more.

I honestly expect more from Lin-Manuel Miranda as well.  The music should be the calling card here-his tunes were such a beautiful fit for Moana, and of course In the Heights and Hamilton both dominated the Tony Awards for a reason.  But here most of the soundtrack feels phoned-in, trading off of past glory.  Again, it's not bad (I liked the way that Estefan, the film's best singer, performed the heartfelt "Inside Your Heart" in the film's penultimate number), but it's also not special.  As Miranda continues to make his mark in film (and we anxiously await his inevitable Hamilton followup onstage), I do hope that Vivo isn't an indication that he's spreading himself too thin.

In the Heights (2021)

Film: In the Heights (2021)

Stars: Anthony Ramos, Corey Hawkins, Leslie Grace, Melissa Barrera, Olga Merediz, Daphne Rube-Vega, Jimmy Smits, Lin-Manuel Miranda

Director: Jon M. Chu

Oscar History: No nominations

Snap Judgment Ranking: 3/5 stars

Lin-Manuel Miranda has become such an omnipresent global superstar in the past few years, it'd be easy to just sort of assume that he popped out-of-nowhere with Hamilton, but Hamilton was actually the long-gestating creative followup to the Tony-winning In the Heights, Miranda's first major Broadway success.  I know I'm a bit behind on this one (if you still haven't seen it yet, it might be something you're going to have to wait to stream unless your dollar theaters have reopened), but I wanted to get on-record my thoughts on one of the summer's better musicals, albeit one that flamed out at the box office.  I also think it's an interesting discussion on Miranda & the movie industry's responsibility to bring diverse films to audiences...but for audiences to recognize those movies when they come about.

(Spoilers Ahead) The movie is about Usnavi (Ramos), who runs a bodega in Washington Heights (where the title comes from), and is madly in love with Vanessa (Barrera), an aspiring fashion designer who wants to move downtown.  Their courtship is happening concurrently with Nina (Grace) returning from Stanford, but missing her home & not being able to fit in (and also missing her crush Benny, played by Hawkins).  We spend most of the first half of the film focused on getting to know the complicated relationships between these four people, as well as Washington Heights (this is definitely a "New York is a character" musical), before a giant blackout that lasts for days in the Heights (in the hot summer) causes a shift in perspective from all four main characters, essentially setting them on course to not only remain in love, but also to find an appreciation for their neighborhood, which is slowly being assimilated (and all find ways to help fight that assimilation).

The movie is littered, as you can imagine, with wonderful songs.  It has become a popular internet pastime to mock Lin-Manuel Miranda (for reasons that feel specious...the internet occasionally just wants to tear down everyone & even if there are some parts of Hamilton that might not be as forward-thinking as they should, I struggle to feel this is the enemy to be focusing our ire at), but I am a fan, and I think this music still has an energy & quality that works.  Particularly the titular "In the Heights" and the bouncing "96,000" just sing offscreen-stage musicals sometimes struggle with transitioning to the big-screen, but In the Heights doesn't remotely suffer from this, expanding quickly into the neighborhood & using excess space to tell the story in a way most Tony-winning movies couldn't remotely aspire.

The film's box office, though, tells a different story, as In the Heights bombed.  This could, to some degree, be blamed on the pandemic-people have been apprehensive about going back to the movies as the vaccine rollout stagnates in the US, and certainly there have been more bombs than hits this summer.  But it's worth asking if this film would've made it otherwise.  It's long, and I'd say too long; the length of a stage play & the energy that it brings is much, much different than a movie, not just because you spent 10x as much for the ticket but also because a theatrical experience is more involved.  The movie could use some trimming, as its plot is, well, thin when you take out the effervescence of the musical numbers-it's an important story, and tackles some serious issues (particularly around immigration and racial equity), but the actual central storyline between Usnavi & Vanessa is weak sauce, particularly the reasons for their fight.

But long movies succeed all the time-I think we need to take the look back at ourselves on this one.  After a decade of Hollywood being hounded about representation, the movie industry came out with something that the public had been begging for: a diverse, quality, high-budget film featuring talented young people of color, and created by arguably the most famous Latino man in America.  The fact that it bombed isn't on Hollywood, in my opinion-it's on us-if we want to see diverse voices in entertainment, when Hollywood actually delivers, we need to show up.  Speaking as a gay man who gets, at most, 1-2 major LGBT films a year from the studios, I know that you have to put butts in the seats to continue to get more diversity in your movies.  Hopefully Hollywood continues to invest, and hopefully audiences learned their lessons here.  Because if all we're going to see are sequels & remakes with predominantly white actors (which is, it has to be said, what most of this summer's success stories have been at the movies), than that's what we're going to get.

OVP: Mary Poppins Returns (2018)

Film: Mary Poppins Returns (2018)
Stars: Emily Blunt, Lin-Manuel Miranda, Ben Whishaw, Emily Mortimer, Pixie Davies, Nathanael Saleh, Joel Dawson, Julie Walters, Dick van Dyke, Angela Lansbury, Colin Firth, Meryl Streep
Director: Rob Marshall
Oscar History: 4 nominations (Best Costume Design, Score, Production Design, Original Song-"The Place Where the Lost Things Go")
Snap Judgment Ranking: 3/5 stars

We live in a world of sequels and remakes.  Hollywood is learning this the hard way this summer as we watch a perpetual list of movies like Men in Black International and Shaft fail to make an indent at the Box Office (pretty much anyone who isn't Marvel has been struggling with remakes/followups this year).  But I'm more curious, as we get to a culture where we're constantly remaking films, what the role of film criticism would be in this case, particularly when it comes to classic films being remade or reinvented, but largely having the same plot as before.  Remakes are not new (this was the fourth A Star is Born movie last year, after all), but they are nearly constant right now, and one has to wonder when it comes to truly landmark films like A Star is Born or Mary Poppins or (later this year) West Side Story, what sort of curve should you be judging on when you look at the film itself compared to its classic predecessor?  How do you judge a film that's essential a carbon copy of its original?

(Spoilers Ahead) This was a question that I wrestled with when looking at Mary Poppins Returns, a movie that is lovely and pleasant on the surface of it, but it also is basically the same exact movie from 1964.  The problem is, that while I've seen the original film, it was not a cornerstone of my childhood the way that it was for so many people perhaps a few years older than me.  Julie Andrews was Maria von Trapp in my world, not Mary Poppins, and so I can understand the vast appeal of this movie to an audience that isn't enamored with the original.  The film's premise is that of a sequel even if it's basically a copy of the first film, with Mary Poppins (Blunt) returning years after taking care of the Banks children Michael (Whishaw) and Jane (Mortimer), and now must look after them again as Michael is about to lose their house and Jane is, well, in need of a man (Jane seems fine, but it's Disney so we need to throw in some heteronormative stuff rather than risk Jane being a lesbian).  She joins them as the nanny to Michael's three children after his wife dies, and they set off on a series of adventures across town with Topsy (Mary Poppins's cousin, played by Meryl Streep) and Jack (Miranda, whose character is an apprentice of Dick van Dyke's Bert) occasionally getting in on the fun.

This is a lovely little film.  The songs are not as memorable as the original, but that's a hard bar to clear, and you have such game performers all-around that you don't really notice that they aren't that good until you've left the theater.  Miranda & Blunt are a perfect odd-pair, with her cool standoffishness (a nice mirror of the original with Julie Andrews) and his unceasing nice-guy charisma working well together.  The supporting cast is lovely (Whishaw & Mortimer aren't really capable of being "not lovely") and the cameos are springy (in addition to Streep, we have Dick van Dyke playing a different character but still a true joy to see on the screen, and we also get the Balloon Lady ala Angela Lansbury).  The film won four Oscar nominations, and it's easy to see why as Disney assembled a top-notch crew to recreate one of their most seminal classics.

But it's basically the same movie as the 1964 version, albeit with less surprise and an almost constant need to make you swim in nostalgia.  This is Disney's MO recently, and I'm not inhuman-I liked it, I cried when Dick van Dyke got on that desk and started to dance, but it's also kind of manipulative.  It's objectively a lesser film than its predecessor, and it's genuinely hard to tell if it's actually any good because it only works with the previous movie, which it's wholesale ripping off.  But I liked it, so I'm going with 3 stars, which feels about right for a movie that I enjoyed, but can't really confirm if it's good or just trying to take me back to my childhood, even though my childhood didn't really feature Mary Poppins.  A conundrum of a film, but a good one for a lazy afternoon.

OVP: Moana (2016)

Film: Moana (2016)
Stars: Auli'l Cravalho, Dwayne Johnson, Rachel House, Temuera Morrison, Nicole Scherzinger, Jermaine Clement
Director: Ron Clements and John Musker
Oscar History: 2 nominations (Best Animated Feature, Best Original Song-"How Far I'll Go")
Snap Judgment Ranking: 4/5 stars

It always feels strange to me at this point to realize that Disney has been better than Pixar for a few years now.  While for a long while there Pixar was consistently one of the most creative forces in movies, it has become such a glut of sequels and nothing approaching its truly magical run with films like WALL-E and Up, that honestly I don't even get excited for original Pixar movies anymore, as (let's face it) Inside Out is very good but it's not as good as WALL-E, and it's possible nothing that Pixar ever makes again will approach that high-point.  But the weird conundrum is that Disney, while also never approaching something as strong as WALL-E, has quietly amassed a resume of solid critical hits, culminating in 2016 with arguably the Mouse House's two best movies since the 1990's, Zootopia and Moana.

(Spoilers Ahead) Moana came out months ago (if my plans are seen through, I suspect you'll be seeing a lot of reviews of 2016 movies in the next couple of weeks as I finally get through a backlog of articles I've been sitting on forever), so the plot is familiar to most of you, but for those who don't know, I'll give a quick rundown.  Moana (Cravalho) is a young Polynesian princess who dreams of getting off of her island, but is held back by her duties to her people and an over-protective father.  Then, one day, the crops on her island start to wither in relation to a curse that was cast a millennium ago, and Moana (against her parents' wishes), sets forth on an adventure to undo the curse, specifically by convincing Maui (Johnson), a demigod who stole a goddess of the ocean's heart, to steal the heart back from a volcanic demon and return it to her, thus saving her people in the process.  It sounds a little confusing, but works pretty smoothly in the film itself, and being that this is Disney, Moana succeeds, and in a nice twist on the princess narrative, she never has to fall in love to do so.

The film itself has a relatively tried-and-true, girl-power narrative that has become so common with Disney in recent years you'd almost think it would get tired, but it's aided by a wonderfully spry storytelling power (I felt like the movie moved pretty quickly, save for a short dry spell after Maui abandons Moana briefly toward the end), and is aided by having some of the most glorious animation I've seen from a Disney picture in a long time, as well as terrific music.  The animation is lovely-the animators make much use of the blue of the constant waves, and particularly some glorious shots at night, as well as the realization of the goddess Te Fiti is gorgeous, and the running gags of Maui's tattoos are clever and striking.  Honestly-not since perhaps Ratatouille has a Disney film's visual style so well-matched its personality.

The music, of course, is aided by Lin-Manuel Miranda's genius and him just saying "forget it" to being "hip" about Disney movies, making this the most Broadway-friendly musical from Disney I've seen that doesn't have "Howard Ashman" in the credits.  I loved all of the tunes, and while one can argue about Jermaine Clement and Dwayne Johnson mugging a bit too much in their songs, songs like "We Know the Way," "I Am Moana," and in particular the Oscar-nominated "How Far I'll Go" soar in the picture.  It feels mean to compare it, as I liked both movies, but here we see what a larger musical can do for a film compared to Frozen, which loses some of its luster when it only occasionally features songs.  It's hard to fathom that Moana came out the same year as Zootopia, a decidedly different side of Disney, or that both ended up being so, so good.  Well done all around.

Those are my thoughts on Moana, a delightful movie experience in theaters or at home (I've watched it both places!).  As you've surely seen it, share your thoughts below, and in particular I'm curious what your favorite film from the post-2009 period is.

2016 Tony Predictions

Is anyone else really excited for this Sunday's Tony Awards?  I genuinely am-this is the first time in a few seasons I've actually seen some of the nominees (no, not that nominee-I don't have a kidney that needs selling), the ratings should be good due to that nominee, though, and if James Corden's brilliant and wonderful Broadway Carpool Karaoke is any indication he'll have a kind and warm nature as the host that will be refreshing after a certain snarky host has worn out his bit a little in recent years (not naming names, but we both know who I'm talking about).  With the Tony Awards on Sunday, though, it's time for me to dive into my predictions on who will win, and we'll do just that.

Best Musical

Bright Star
Hamilton
School of Rock
Shuffle Along
Waitress

The Lowdown: It'll be Hamilton, come on guys.  We don't even need to discuss.

Best Play

Eclipsed
The Father
The Humans
King Charles III

The Lowdown: This one, though certainly not as splashy and pop culture-y, also seems largely wrapped up.  King Charles III or Eclipsed might score in an acting category, but it seems likely that the critically-acclaimed The Humans is the show to beat.

Best Revival of a Musical

The Color Purple
Fiddler on the Roof
She Loves Me
Spring Awakening

The Lowdown: With Shuffle Along competing in the best original musical category, that leaves room for Oprah Winfrey to get the third leg of her EGOT (anyone else surprised she's never won a Spoken Word Grammy-she should get that memoir out and land this plane) as The Color Purple is surely going to trump She Loves Me.

Best Revival of a Play

Blackbird
The Crucible
Long Day's Journey into Night
Noises Off
A View from the Bridge

The Lowdown: Our first genuinely competitive race of the bunch.  If it were still on Broadway, I think it would go without saying that A View from the Bridge would be taking this one, considering its overwhelming support from critics earlier in the season, but it's difficult for a show that has shuttered to take this trophy, which is why I'm going with an upset of sorts and picking Long Day's Journey Into Night.

Best Actor in a Musical

Alex Brightman, School of Rock
Danny Burstein, Fiddler on the Roof
Zachary Levi, She Loves Me
Lin-Manuel Miranda, Hamilton
Leslie Odom, Hamilton

The Lowdown: One of the few categories that Hamilton isn't guaranteed a victory is oddly the one with the man himself.  If it were just Odom or Miranda, this would be an easy victory, but with both of them in the contest, this could be ripe for an upset with Danny Burstein, a 5-time Tony Award bride hoping to pull a Kelli O'Hara this year, poised for an upset.  Because I can't quite get there, I'm going with Odom (since Miranda will be taking the Best Musical prize and has kind of been hinting that people should vote for Odom), but don't be surprised to see Broadway stalwart Burstein as a shock victor.

Best Actress in a Musical

Laura Benanti, She Loves Me
Carmen Cusack, Bright Star
Cynthia Erivo, The Color Purple
Jessie Mueller, Waitress
Phillipa Soo, Hamilton

The Lowdown: With perennial Tony winner Audra McDonald out of the running this year for only the second time ever in her Broadway career, this seems to be the category where Hamilton will have the most trouble in breaking rather than just tying The Producers record, as Cynthia Erivo has to be considered the heavy favorite over Phillipa Soo.  Erivo's earned raves for The Color Purple, and this role a decade ago was the ticket for LaChanze.

Best Featured Actor in a Musical

Daveed Diggs, Hamilton
Brandon Victor Dixon, Shuffle Along
Christopher Fitzgerald, Waitress
Jonathan Groff, Hamilton
Christopher Jackson, Hamilton

The Lowdown: Splitting the vote only works as a theory at an awards show when there is no consensus over who is the standout amongst a cast of nominated actors.  With all due respect to Jackson and Groff, that's not the case, and Diggs' Lafayette is most definitely going to be taking this trophy in a walk.

Best Featured Actress in a Musical

Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple
Renee Elise Goldsberry, Hamilton
Jane Krakowski, She Loves Me
Jennifer Simard, Disaster!
Adrienne Warren, Shuffle Along

The Lowdown: Proving that there is still room for a soap opera to launch a star into the stratosphere, Renee Elise Goldsberry will surely help Hamilton's awards count as Angela, picking up at least one of the female acting trophies over Danielle Brooks and Jane Krakowski, the likely second places.

Best Actor in a Play

Gabriel Byrne, Long Day's Journey into Night
Jeff Daniels, Blackbird
Frank Langella, The Father
Tim Pigott-Smith, King Charles III
Mark Strong, A View from the Bridge

The Lowdown: Much like the Best Actor in a Musical category, this is a genuine horse-race between three men: Jeff Daniels, Frank Langella, and Tim Pigott-Smith.  Pigott-Smith had arguably the most original creation but I can never tell if Broadway looks a bit down on actors who start their run across the pond, and Daniels has had a relatively robust career on the stage but has never won a Tony.  However, depite having three already, my gut is telling me that this is one of those swan song seasons for Frank Langella, who will probably pick up a fourth statue for his lauded work in The Father.

Best Actress in a Play

Jessica Lange, Long Day's Journey into Night
Laurie Metcalf, Misery
Lupita Nyong'o, Eclipsed
Sophie Okonedo, The Crucible
Michelle Williams, Blackbird

The Lowdown: Wow, what a lineup!  Four Oscar nominees and one of television's finest (seriously-when is someone going to give Laurie Metcalf her Frozen River?).  I know at the beginning of the season it felt like Nyong'o was the one to beat, but her precursor support has been a little dicey and part of me thinks the play may be too serious to win this trophy.  As a result, I'm going to pronounce that Jessica Lange, fresh off of her Drama Desk victory, finds a Tony Award to go with her two Oscars and three Emmys (time to start reading Shakespeare on Tape to grab that Grammy, Jes).

Best Featured Actor in a Play

Reed Birney, The Humans
Bill Camp, The Crucible
David Furr, Noises Off
Richard Goulding, King Charles III
Michael Shannon, Long Day's Journey into Night

The Lowdown: A two-horse race between Shannon, the Oscar-nominated film star, and Birney, an actor so character he doesn't even have a Wikipedia page.  Occasionally the Tony Awards play the part of the HFPA (remember the year that Catherine Zeta-Jones and Scarlett Johansson both won?), but as a rule they tend to stick to the boards so my gut says that Birney is the favorite here.

Best Featured Actress in a Play

Pascale Armand, Ecplised
Megan Hilty, Noises Off
Jayne Houdyshell, The Humans
Andrea Martin, Noises Off
Saycon Sengbloh, Eclipsed

The Lowdown: While it's never wise to count out Two-Time Tony Winner Andrea Martin, and Gay Twitter would have a conniption if Megan Hilty echoed the moment her Smash counterpart had a few years ago and pulled off the victory, this seems to be the time for longtime stage vet Jayne Houdyshell to transform from Tony bridesmaid to Tony champion.

There are my predictions-how about yours?  Are you excited for this Sunday's show?  Who are you rooting for?  Share your thoughts in the comments!

Thoughts on the Tony Nominations

Yesterday's election news was hardly good for me, but I couldn't let that deter me from getting to the Tony nominations (I would have had this article out last night, but I'm on a strict "watch a movie a day and watch The Real O'Neals live in order to help keep it on the air" plan this week-you should most definitely join me on the latter, as it's a marvelous show and I'm now on a tangent but WATCH IT).  I did very well with my predictions, so I only have three things that I really want to call out, but I couldn't pass up the opportunity to discuss the theater just a wee bit:

1. Hamilton Breaks the Record...Can It Do It Twice?

Yesterday Hamilton officially made history again (the puns just write themselves this afternoon, don't they?) when it took sixteen nominations, one more than either Billy Elliot or The Producers, taking a nomination in literally every category that it was eligible for and likely setting up a mind-numbing sweep at this year's Tony Awards.  The question now is around whether or not it can break the other major Tony record: that of 12 Tony wins, which is currently held by The Producers.  It's nominated in thirteen categories, so it would have to win all of them (The Producers won in every category it was nominated for, but didn't have a female lead actress so Hamilton has the chance to break that tie up).  It seems relatively likely it could tie, but both Best Actress in a Musical (where Cynthia Erivo has to be considered a slight favorite for The Color Purple) and Choreography (where Savion Glover's magic work in Shuffle Along is going to be a fierce competitor) are both tossups at this point.  If it can take both, it seems near-certain that it would be able to be the first Broadway show ever to sweep all categories.

2. Audra McDonald and Jennifer Hudson Get Snubbed

In a seismic moment that threw most of Twitter off-guard, Audra McDonald (for the first time in her career for a musical) wasn't nominated for a Tony Award-in fact, even counting in plays the only time she's ever missed was for Henry IV.  While the Meryl Streep of Broadway took the snub with class, it's still a shock not to see McDonald's name amongst the five women nominated for Best Actress in a Musical, and kind of leaves a vacuum (that could, as I mentioned above, benefit both Erivo and Soo).  McDonald has missed a number of performances and isn't going to be with Shuffle Along for very long so the snub is understandable, but this is almost certainly the biggest shock of Tony nominations morning.

Coupling alongside that is Jennifer Hudson, who took on the Margaret Avery role in the recent revival of The Color Purple.  Hudson's name is plastered all over the poster and marquee, and it was expected by many that while her reviews weren't superb that she would end up gaining the nomination on celebrity alone.  Hudson was also making waves on Twitter yesterday with a surprise amount of candor about her lack of a nomination.  Though she quickly deleted the tweet (likely because it erupted a firestorm), celebrities should know better than to assume screenshots don't live forever, and she basically said she was only hired because of her fame, not because of her talent.  It feels like there's a lot of story there, but this does end Hudson's impressive EGOT-style debut series, where she won an Oscar for her film debut and Grammy for her first album.  She could still EGOT, of course, but she's going to need to give the boards another run in order to do it (perhaps she'll revive Effie White?).

3. Best Actress in a Play is Crazy

Four Oscar nominees litter the lineup for Best Actress in a Play, one of the most talented lineups for an award I've ever seen.  Jessica Lange, Sophie Okonedo, Michelle Williams, and Lupita Nyong'o all make up the list of women competing for the prize, and you would be forgiven for assuming that this was a lineup at the Golden Globes rather than the Tony Awards, though both Okonedo and Lange have had long careers on the stage.  Joining them is TV and theater legend Laurie Metcalf, who is one of my favorite performers (when is she going to get her own Frozen River/The Visiter?), and I suspect that while this is probably going to Nyong'o that there's room for Lange or even Williams to sneak in and take the trophy considering their name recognition and that they are both still on Broadway as well (and neither have won this letter in their EGOT).  Either way, I wish that all actressing lineups were this sensational, as I genuinely love all of these women.

Those are my thoughts-how about yours?  What stood out to you about yesterday's Tony nominations?

Tony Predictions 2016

Next Tuesday we'll officially get one of my favorite announcements of the season: the Tony Awards!  I recently got back from a trip to New York City, and while I don't think I did as well in advance of the awards in terms of what I'm seeing getting nominated (I wanted to keep both of my kidneys so getting Hamilton tickets was off the table), I did have a marvelous time and am excited to see what musicals, plays, and actors are about to have their Broadway dreams come true.  We'll kick it off with the category everyone is excited for...

Best Musical

So, umm, Hamilton.  That's it right?  It kind of sucks for the also-rans, but there's almost no point in mentioning them if you're just concerned about the winner as not since The Book of Mormon has there been such a lock for a nomination and win.  It'll be, likely like The Producers, almost comical how quickly they stack up every statue.

There will, of course, be other contenders in the lineup, as there are three other nominations.  Waitress (which I did catch) has a leg-up both because its star is getting hugely successful reviews and because it seems to be a hit with audiences; the same could be said for Bright Star and School of Rock, the first major hit for Andrew Lloyd Webber since Sunset Boulevard, which is saying something.  While other plays like American Psycho or Tuck Everlasting could also compete (and with their film origins the Broadway community might want to back them to help push a touring company), they don't have the Box Office or reviews that normally associate with this category, even if it's harder to tell the final slots when the winner is so obvious.

Finally, it's hard to tell whether or not Shuffle Along will be nominated.  A star-studded musical, it's very original in its book and script, but for some reason wants to be considered a revival (wait, the reason is simple-it wants to win and not compete against Hamilton while doing so).  I have trouble believing the Tony committee classifies it as such, so I'm sticking with it here, and with Scott Rudin on board it's likely to be included wherever it ends up being eligible.

My Predictions: Hamilton, School of Rock, Shuffle Along, Waitress

Best Play

Unlike Best Musical, the winner here hasn't been preordained in granite for months now.  I suspect, though, that you can take at least Danai Gurira's Eclipsed and Stephan Karam's The Humans to the bank-both have dominated the conversation and have been major players in recent weeks on Broadway, and in a rare twist are actually from American playwrights, which isn't usually the case for the Tony Awards.  On the flip side is Mike Bartlett's King Charles III, which is about Prince Charles taking the throne and already had a successful run in the West End.

The remaining contenders are a bit of a hodgepodge.  Our Mother's Brief Affair got strong reviews, but is it too small to make it here?  On the flip side, you have plays like Misery and An Act of God coasting off of major celebrity/name recognition that will look a bit down-the-nose to Tony voters.  As a result I'm going to finish off the list with a longtime Tony favorite Frank Langella, whose The Father is probably a safe, reliable pick to be included (though likely not to win).

My Predictions: Eclipsed, The Father, The Humans, King Charles III

Best Revival of a Musical

As I stated above, it's quite likely that Shuffle Along could be included here, but if they aren't stretching the truth, this is a battle between five musicals, in which case only three slots are a possibility.  The top choice, in my opinion, will be The Color Purple, which has gotten solid buzz and has a likely play in the Best Actress field.  Name recognition makes me think the final two spots will be Fiddler on the Roof and She Loves Me, though Spring Awakening, which is recent enough that it makes me feel old that it's already being revived (same for The Color Purple), could make it, though the show is closed while the other two aren't, and Tony voters have notoriously short memories.

(Side Note: Though I'm not predicting featured actors here, I am genuinely curious if Jennifer Hudson makes it into that lineup-I doubt she wins, but I think she is bound-and-determined to make a play at least for an EGOT nomination collection, and between this and Confirmation she could soon be much closer to achieving the dream).

My Predictions: The Color Purple, Fiddler on the Roof, She Loves Me

Best Revival of a Play

The reality is that it's almost always easier to be nominated here if you are still on Broadway, and that's true for three of the contenders right now, all of which are handsomely-produced, feature major movie star talent, and seem like strong shots at nominations: Blackbird, Long Day's Journey Into Night, and Arthur Miller's The Crucible.

However, occasionally the Tony Awards have longer memories, so other shows could make it despite having a closure sign on the door.  Hughie starring Oscar winner Forest Whitaker was a gigantic bomb, Noises Off feels like it was just done, though the Times wasn't awful to it.  Honestly, the best shots are probably Old Times, which has the benefit of Oscar nominee Clive Owen, and A View from the Bridge, which stars a shirtless Russell Tovey (which is, admittedly, all I'm really looking for in a play), and perhaps more of a draw for Tony voters (though this is Broadway, so not that much more of a draw), got rave reviews.  Your guess is as as good as mine, but I'm going with...

My Predictions: Arthur Miller's The Crucible, Blackbird, Long Day's Journey Into Night, A View from the Bridge

Best Actor in a Musical

Here we are back a little bit in territory I can understand, as it appears that three men are going to be sure things.  Both of the Hamilton stars Lin-Manuel Miranda and Leslie Odom, Jr. are assured nominations, as is most of the Hamilton cast, let's be honest, and the real question is which one of them takes this trophy.  Joining them in the winner's circle will be perpetually unlucky Danny Burstein, who is assured a sixth loss at the Tony Awards (he and wife Rebecca Luker, another eternal bridesmaid, can console each other through song).

The final two slots are a harder prediction.  Alex Brightman's position as the lead of School of Rock is an ostentatious enough part that he should be able to make it even if he's not in a spot to win, but the fifth spot could be anyone's guess. Brian Stokes Mitchell and Billy Porter are both Tony favorites, but neither stands apart in an obvious way in Shuffle Along, and I suspect they'll split the votes.   That should help out either Benjamin Walker, who somehow has never been nominated for a Tony despite continual spots on Broadway (near unheard of for a man his age) in American Psycho, and Andrew Keenan-Bolger in Tuck Everlasting, who needs to start catching up with his sister soon to avoid a major sibling rivalry.

My Predictions: Alex Brightman, Danny Burstein, Lin-Manuel Miranda, Leslie Odom, Jr., Benjamin Walker

Best Actress in a Musical

First off, let's get the Hamilton out of the way: though she's not a guarantee to win, Phillipa Soo is assured a spot in the final five.  The same can be said for Jessie Mueller, coming off a recent win for Beautiful who is starting to turn into a perpetual nominee for Waitress.  Finally, I think that Cynthia Erivo has gotten too many plaudits and accolades to not make it for The Color Purple.

The final two spots are a bit hazy.  Laura Benanti is always a Tony contender, and she hasn't been on the boards in a while so the Broadway community might be feeling nostalgic.  If they go bigger for Bright Star than I'm expecting, Carmen Cusack would be a potential surprise.  Lea Salonga would be a lock (she's a Tony winner from way back), but Allegiance closed early and it's hard to tell if the Tony winners will have a long enough memory.  And finally there's Audra McDonald.  She's been sick for a number of performances in Shuffle Along and is only going to be in the show for a few weeks before jetting off to London.  However, she's Audra McDonald, six-time Tony winner, who has never missed when she was eligible for a musical.  That's a lot of star power to deny even when any mere mortal would miss under those circumstances.

My Predictions: Laura Benanti, Cynthia Erivo, Audra McDonald, Jessie Mueller, Phillipa Soo

Best Actor in a Play

The dramatic races are almost always a balance between movie star and stage star, as depending on the year the Tony Awards may be feeling particularly-inclined to Hollywood (lest we forget Scarlett Johansson has a Tony but no Oscar nomination) or completely abandon it (despite boffo box office and critical raves Bradley Cooper ended up empty-handed last year).  As a result, when those two collide with someone like Frank Langella in The Father, you take notice as the longtime star of both the movies and Shubert Alley is a near certain contender for a nomination.

The rest of the list is harder to tell.  You have Clive Owen (Old Times), Al Pacino (China Doll), and James Earl Jones (The Gin Game) all as major headliners whose plays have long ago closed, but their cache is still strong if they want the celebrity quotient to be high (it's worth noting that Pacino and Jones, in particular, have had a long Broadway career to go along with their celebrated work in the motion pictures).  On the flip side you have lesser-known Mark Strong (A View from the Bridge) and Tim Pigott-Smith (King Charles III) who could make it based on solid reviews and coattails from their plays.  Gabriel Byrne (Long Day's Journey Into Night), Jeff Daniels (Blackbird), and Ben Whishaw (The Crucible) all are in the unique position where their shows are still on Broadway (always helps if you're nominating a show people can actually seek out), while a nod to Jim Parsons (An Act of God) would be a way of welcoming a major television star who has been hitting the boards like mad (this is his third Broadway play since 2011).  The one name you won't see, though it's probably the most famous on this list?  Bruce Willis, whose work in Misery may have been a way to stretch the longtime cinema icon, but even if it'd be fun to see him at the CBS broadcast, movie star quotient will only get you so far.

My Predictions: Jeff Daniels, Frank Langella, Al Pacino, Tim Pigott-Smith, Mark Strong

Best Actress in a Play

Despite somehow missing out at the Drama Desk Awards, it's hard to imagine recent Oscar winner Lupita Nyong'o, who is getting absolute raves and is the frontrunner for the trophy, missing out when it comes to Eclipsed.  The play is a major critical player and after Hollywood has repeatedly been chastised for denying her roles despite a recent major debut, I suspect that Broadway will self-congratulate in this situation.  Alongside her will surely be Jessica Lange, whose work in Long Day's Journey into Night won her an Olivier citation sixteen years ago and has never been nominated for a Tony Award.  Sentiment might make her a favorite if Nyong'o loses any sort of momentum.

Speaking of Oscar nominees, a number of other women from Hollywood will be amongst those wanting a shot at the Tony this year.  Michelle Williams (Blackbird), Sophie Okonedo (The Crucible), Cicely Tyson (The Gin Game), and hell, even Keira Knightley (Therese Raquin) are all possibilities, though the first two have the advantage of still being on Broadway right now.  Laurie Metcalf may not have an Oscar nomination, but she's a Tony favorite and her work in Misery was routinely cited as the best part of the play.  Finally, there's Nicola Walker, who is not a household name even in New York, but could get in if praise for A View from the Bridge is particularly strong.

My Predictions: Jessica Lange, Laurie Metcalf, Lupita Nyong'o, Sophie Okonedo, Michelle Williams

And there you have it-the nominations are on Tuesday, but in the meantime go ahead and speculate in the comments!