Dumplin' (2018)

Film: Dumplin' (2018)
Stars: Danielle Macdonald, Jennifer Aniston, Odeya Rush, Maddie Baillio, Luke Benward, Harold Perrineau, Kathy Najimy
Director: Anne Fletcher
Oscar History: Parton got a citation for Best Original Song at the Globes, but couldn't translate to the Oscars.
Snap Judgment Ranking: 2/5 stars

One of the biggest problems I have with Netflix's original films (and there are a lot of problems I have with Netflix in general) is that they feel so damn disposable.  For all of the jokes that came out this past week about Bird Box (and there were a lot of them), I didn't feel the need to see it because if a star like Sandra Bullock had an actual, genuine good movie on her hands...wouldn't it be in theaters where it could make some proper bank?  This is luddite thinking, to say the least (everyone from Alfonso Cuaron to Martin Scorsese is currently partnering with Netflix), but it feels worth acknowledging (particularly since I have absolutely no intention of seeing Bird Box, which looks dreadful) before we get into Dumplin', a movie that probably could have been a midlevel hit if released theatrically (Aniston is a bankable star), but instead will become forgotten in two weeks unless Oscar saves it by getting the film a Best Original Song nomination.  Movies shouldn't need to be rescued in such a way.

(Spoilers Ahead) But let's get to the movie at hand, shall we?  The film focuses on Willowdean (McDonald), a young woman who is overweight (the film makes it central to character, hence me pointing it out), and who has recently lost the person she loves most in the world, her Aunt Lucy.  Her mother is Rosie (Aniston), a former pageant queen who has nicknamed her "Dumplin," a moniker she detests but it does give us the name of the movie.  Willowdean works at a local fast food joint with Bo (Benward), a ridiculously handsome short-order cook who seems to have a crush on her and spends much of her time with her best friend Ellen (Rush).  They decide one day after learning that Aunt Lucy had entered in the same pageant that made Rosie a local celebrity to enter as well, causing a lot of friction between Willowdean and Rosie, as they are forced to encounter their own prejudices (about themselves and each other), and try to find a path in a world without Lucy in their lives.

The movie is better than it should be, thanks in no small part to the two lead actresses.  McDonald can't possibly keep coming to the same well over-and-over again (a poor, overweight girl who finds her own sense of beauty) as there just aren't enough parts with that in the description (just ask Nikki Blonsky), but she's a good actress and I hope she does as she deserves more roles after elevating both Dumplin and Patti Cake$.  Aniston doesn't need a career boost, and I know it's an unpopular opinion to some cinephiles but I think she's a pretty good film actress, always bringing her own sense of charm to movies she does in the post-Friends era (though she's never as good as she was as Rachel Green, the role-of-a-lifetime in retrospect).  These two have some fascinating dynamics as the movie closes, with them finding that they love each other even if they're willing to admit that their relationship isn't perfect, and perhaps never will be.  There's a great scene where Aniston's Rosie must acknowledge she's never loved her daughter or sister the way she should have, but she did the best that she could that felt very true, and fitting with the 2018 "Year of Poverty" that seems to have become a theme at the cinemas.

These two leads make up for a relatively hackneyed supporting cast, almost entirely filled with 2-dimensional portrayals from actors who watched Miss Congeniality over-and-over again.  The film's unexpected sidestep into the world of drag queens feels very "WTF" (was Lucy meant to be gay, and that just got trimmed on the editing room floor?) and I didn't get the relationship between Millie (Baillio) and her mother (Najimy) at all (it felt very fluid for a pair that seemed so strict, a case of pretty lazy writing to advance the plot), and Rush is not a good enough actress to make the nondescript best friend anything more than nondescript.  Benward continues to be the unlikely paramour of 2018, after both this and Life of the Party, and is so cute that I believe I literally shouted "just kiss him!" at one point during the movie to my TV screen (Netflix finally finds an outlet movie theaters can't replicate), but he's not given anything to do other than be really cute, so I don't know if that's so much promise as it is a guy with great dimples.  The movie's best asset other than its two leads is surely its soundtrack, as Willowdean has the good sense to be obsessed with Dolly Parton (how, precisely, was it that Dolly never made a guest appearance even over the end credits of this picture?), and Parton seems to be working hard to get her third Oscar nomination this year for the film.  If enough people see it, it's easy to imagine the Academy giving the popular singer that bone, as "Girl at the Movies" is situated alongside all of her other major hits, giving it an unfair advantage.  But otherwise, this is a film that showcases its two leads well, but feels pretty light-perhaps an appropriate film for the tossaway culture of Netflix, but a sad reminder of where people want their movies to come from in the future.

SAG Nominations ≠ Oscar Nominations

We've done it with Emmy.  We've done it with the Golden Globes.  And we've done it with BAFTA.  Sometimes a nomination at a precursor just doesn't equal with Oscar.  However, for the SAG Awards, it really does.  I had been holding off a bit on an article about the actors who have been nominated for film awards at the SAG Awards but never at the Oscars partially because the list is relatively small (SAG generally really does equal Oscar), and I wasn't sure how to do it.  However, I like the format I went with below, so let's take a dive into the unlucky few who have been nominated for SAG but not with Oscar.  As a reminder, there are some actors (such as Tilda Swinton and Forest Whitaker) who have been nominated for performances at the SAG Awards but not at the Oscars, but they are still Oscar nominees so they aren't on the below list, just those at the SAG Awards who have yet to dance with AMPAS.

Best Actress
Number of SAG Nominees without an Oscar Nod: 6 (Meg Ryan, Pam Grier, Jane Horrocks, Evan Rachel Wood, Ziyi Zhang, Jennifer Aniston)
Came the Closest with Oscar: The latter three were all in heavy contention for the nomination, with Aniston considered something of a lock.  All three got thrown out for surprises (Keisha Castle-Hughes moving to lead for Wood, Laura Linney and Marion Cotillard randomly landing a nod after being denied for most of the season for the latter).  If I had to go with one specifically, I would go with Aniston.
You Crazy SAG!: Meg Ryan's nomination for When a Man Loves a Woman is vintage SAG, the era when they would not only nominate The Birdcage for Best Cast, but give it the trophy.  Ryan also happened to land that nod in 1994, which was one of those "let's throw pasta at the wall and see what sticks" kind of years.
Who Has the Best Shot to Break the Cycle?: Ryan, Grier, and Horrocks have all seen their time pass and Zhang probably is firmly in the "international star" category, the kind thats get a screening during a Summer arthouse slot, but never actually gains awards traction again.  Aniston and Wood, however, have pretty vibrant careers going-Aniston clearly has a taste for the Oscar after her near miss with Cake (Peter Bogdonavich, anyone?) and probably has the slight edge for the next couple of years, though Wood is more consistently in Oscar-bait supporting roles.  I'll go with Wood, but if Aniston announces a bait-y project before 2017, I'm switching pretty quickly.

Best Actor
Number of SAG Nominees without an Oscar Nod: 5 (Joseph Fiennes, Jamie Bell, Richard Gere, Peter Dinklage, Emile Hirsch)
Came the Closest with Oscar: Richard Gere.  He'd won the Globe, was SAG-nominated, and was headlining a Best Picture winner.  The thing people forget about Gere is that he wasn't a frontrunner at the beginning of the cycle for the fifth slot, Michael Caine was.  It wasn't until he won the Globe and got a shock nod at the SAG Awards that he suddenly became invincible, but at that point some of the balloting had started and lead actors in musicals usually have a tough time getting nominated.  Still, this had to have been a close sixth place.
You Crazy SAG!: Peter Dinklage, the future Tyrion Lannister, managed a nomination for a miniscule film in 2003 knocking out far heavier hitters like Jude Law (Cold Mountain) and Russell Crowe (Master and Commander).  This was also the year that SAG threw a major monkey wrench in the winner predictions-after Bill Murray and Sean Penn won at the Globes, the SAG Awards decided randomly to give the trophy to Johnny Depp, giving us one of the most nail-biting races for the Oscar in a while.
Who Has the Best Shot to Break the Cycle?: Hmm, I kind of want to say none of them.  Gere probably makes the most sense in the Hollywood hierarchy, but they've passed him by a few times now and maybe he's just not their cup of tea.  Still, a stellar supporting turn would be hard to turn down in the right Best Picture nominee, so I'll go with that, as Fiennes/Hirsch have watched their time fade, Dinklage is too into TV now, and Jamie Bell has the curse of being nominated as a child actor.

Best Supporting Actress
Number of SAG Nominees without an Oscar Nod: 9 (Jamie Lee Curtis, Robin Wright, Gwen Verdon, Alison Elliott, Cameron Diaz, Dakota Fanning, Maria Bello, Diane Kruger, Mila Kunis)
Came the Closest with Oscar: Another tough call.  Wright, Diaz, Bello, and Kunis all also scored with the Globes, making them de facto predictions (so did Curtis, but in lead, and that performance's awards trajectory has always baffled me, though I can't wait to eventually see it).  I think I'm going to go with Robin Wright in Forrest Gump over the other three though.  She got snubbed in a MAJOR surprise with Jennifer Tilly randomly scoring for Bullets Over Broadway and her competition that year (Curtis, Jessica Tandy in Nobody's Fool, Kirsten Dunst in Interview with a Vampire, and her costar Sally Field (who probably cost her the nomination with vote-splitting) all sort of pale to the baitiness of her role in a shallow year).
You Crazy SAG!: I actually don't find any of these truly egregious-Verdon and Elliott were both a little odd, but they were both riding coattails which isn't unusual.  Instead, I'm going to go with someone that made me shout "really?" even though she's an Oscar winner: Cloris Leachman in Spanglish!  An Adam Sandler movie?  And one that somehow flopped during his peak Box Office years?  I mean, it is James L. Brooks but when Natalie Portman, Meryl Streep, and Kate Winslet are all there with prestige dramas, it's kind of hard to believe they randomly decided to honor Phyllis Lindstrom.
Who Has the Best Shot to Break the Cycle?: It should be noted that Diaz is the only person EVER to be nominated for two SAG Awards for film performances and not be an Oscar nominee (she was cited for both Being John Malkovich and Vanilla Sky), so she probably should be selected here but she never seems interested in such work anymore.  Still, if she were to find her Blind Side, she could be in the conversation again considering her celebrity.  Subtracting her from the conversation, I'm guessing that Robin Wright's new lease on life after House of Cards could give her a plum role ala Felicity Huffman in Transamerica.

Best Supporting Actor
Number of SAG Nominees without an Oscar Nod: 15 (John Turturro, Kevin Bacon, Nathan Lane, Hank Azaria, Noah Taylor, Billy Connolly, David Kelly, Hayden Christensen, Dennis Quaid, Alfred Molina, Freddie Highmore, Dev Patel, Armie Hammer, Daniel Bruhl, James Gandolfini)
Came the Closest with Oscar: This is actually a pretty long list-SAG has a knack for nominating the sixth place finishers in the Oscar race.  I'm still beyond flummoxed by Dennis Quaid's lack of a nomination when it looked like he might win the Oscar at the time.  As weird as it is to say, though, I'd probably go with Hayden Christensen.  At the time, Life as a House was a top contender in both lead and supporting (Kevin Kline was on my prediction list) and Christensen was poised to be "the next big star."  In the end Jon Voight's work in Ali got in (Jon Voight always finds a way), and Christensen became something of a pop culture joke.  It's weird to think how different his career might have been if he'd made it with Oscar-could he have recovered?
You Crazy SAG!: Not one, but two of the Birdcage stars made it into the SAG Award category, and while it's awesome to see Hank Azaria's hilarious cook in the category, what exactly about Nathan Lane's performance is supporting? (raised eyebrow)
Who Has the Best Shot to Break the Cycle?: This is a long list, but none of them really pop as "Oscar must go to there!"  Alfred Molina works the most in prestige, but he can never seem to gain traction with Oscar.  Armie Hammer still gets cast in major movies (admittedly in side roles now) so he's a possibility but I continue to have trouble seeing him actually popping considering all of the opportunities he's had, so I'll go with either Kevin Bacon or Dennis Quaid.  Both of them are big enough stars that a key supporting turn would gain attention, and while I think a win might be out of the question, they've both worked with everyone so who knows if the right movie comes along.

And there you have it-the SAG actors who just can't win with AMPAS.  What are your thoughts?  Who do you think will be the next off this list?  Who are you surprised is still on it?  And whose nomination did you completely blank happened?  Share in the comments!

Best and Worst Dressed at the Oscars

The Academy Awards to some people is a wonderful night celebrating the history, majesty, and wonder of the movies, an occasionally infuriating but always magical evening devoted to cinephiles everywhere.  For other people, however, this is the Super Bowl of Fashion, a night where the world's most beautiful creatures (some so gorgeous it's sort of hard to call them human beings, as it's hard to imagine they are the same species as, say, Mama June from Honey Boo Boo) parade around in a sea of the latest in fashion.  I am not one of the latter group, but because I do celebrate Oscar Awareness in all of its glory, I indulge them with a post every year (and to be honest, it's really fun-I've gotten more and more into the fashion aspect of the evening as the years have gone on).

Since I pointedly skipped the Red Carpet this year as part of my protest against women getting asked stupid questions while the men get asked about artistry (and also because I want Ryan Seacrest to GO AWAY), I had a joyous moment of writing down my favorites from the ceremony and from the red carpet photos afterwards, so I'm going into this sight unseen in terms of what the collective internet is saying about these people, with my choices of the best and worst dressed completely of my own choosing (if one of these men or women are showing up in the opposite list, it just goes to show that group-think is a virus on the media).  Without further adieu, my choices for the five worst and ten best-dressed stars of the red carpet:

Best-Dressed

10. Sienna Miller

A gorgeous mix of black-and-navy, Miller rocked Oscar de la Renta for the Red Carpet.  The color combination is tricky and could have been a disaster, but the navy is so subtle it's a dress you just can't stop staring at.

9. Dakota Johnson

Johnson has been sort of a master-class in celebrity roll-outs.  She hasn't made a fashion mistake since the premiere of her film (and smartly chose her glamorous movie star mother as her date rather than distracting from her emergence onto the national consciousness with a romantic partner), and she saved one of her best looks (a fire-engine red Saint Laurent gown) for the Oscars.  I particularly love the diamond-encrusted strap.

8. Nicole Kidman

I adored this Louis Vuitton number for its play with color (is it white...wait, no, it's not), the mix of what appears to almost be a yellow-green with red without clashing, and in particular for the box-style handbag.

7. America Ferrera

The How to Train Your Dragon 2 star (for those who were trying to place why Ferrera was at the Oscars this year), made the most of her moment-in-the-spotlight in a gorgeous seafoam-green Jenny Packham dress complete with chic belt and a gorgeous brick-red handbag.

6. Jennifer Aniston

Jen smartly didn't skip the Oscars this year (a mistake other snubbed stars have made in the past), even choosing to present and make a major smash in a steamy Versace with a wonderful flowing down hairstyle rather than going with the traditional up.  Simple, chic elegance.

5. Emma Stone

If you're getting your first nomination but you know you're not going to win, it's time to make a truly bold fashion statement.  This chartreuse Elie Saab gown is daring, but perfectly counters Stone's hair color and has a splash of the modern (the lacy material) with a throwback to the old (the cut is pure Dynasty).

4. Eddie Redmayne

If you're a stylish and handsome younger actor who is likely to be photographed with the most coveted man in Hollywood, it's time to make a splash.  Redmayne's Alexander McQueen tuxedo was a splash of blue in a sea of black-and-white duds, but wasn't so ostentatious that it seemed tacky.  Plus, unlike Ansel Elgort's adventure in navy, this seemed to be tailored to Redmayne's lanky frame.

3. Keira Knightley

Maternity couture is a hard road to travel, particularly if you're a style icon, which is why Knightley wore what was one of my favorite adventures in clothes Sunday night, and along with Stone and Kidman, was one of those dresses that could have easily gone to the bad but was stylistically bold in the right way.  I love the words, the neutral tones, and the down-and-flowing locks.

2. Marion Cotillard

Cotillard is perpetually on the best-dressed list, and her Dior was no exception.  I loved the shockingly baggy back to the dress and the gorgeously flirty front to the gown.  It feels like something you'd see launching on a Paris catwalk, not on the more traditional platform of the Oscars.

1. Reese Witherspoon

It has the perfect color scheme of a Chanel suit, but with the clean lines of Dior-I mean it has to be Tom Ford, doesn't it?  Reese made black-and-white feel fresh and the subtle diamonds just add to the elegance.

Worst-Dressed

5. Scarlett Johansson

The dress itself is sultry if a little bit dull Versace, but the bizarre neckpiece is clearly meant for another dress and is WAY too matchy-matchy for this color scheme.

4. Gwyneth Paltrow

Gwyneth, wearing the most expensive prom dress at Barney's.

3. Chrissy Teigen

The makeup is too extreme, the slit too high, and the cut too low-it looks like she's wearing a bathrobe designed by Frederick's of Hollywood (on the plus side it's a good color for her).

2. Felicity Jones

It's probably best not to wear what could easily double as a discount wedding dress to the Oscars, particularly on your first nomination.  The worst part is that Jones wore a gorgeous and fashionable look to the Vanity Fair party later in the evening that would have ROCKED IT on the red carpet, particularly since no one had a particularly memorable little black dress.

1. Jared Leto

It's probably best not to use Dumb & Dumber as your fashion inspiration.

And those are my thoughts on this year's fashions-what about you?  Share the best and worst on your dressed list in the comments!

Cake (2014)

Film: Cake (2014)
Stars: Jennifer Aniston, Adriana Barraza, Anna Kendrick, Sam Worthington, Mamie Gummer, Felicity Huffman, William H. Macy
Director: Daniel Barnz
Oscar History: Aniston certainly made a major splash at most of awards shows (BFCA, SAG, and the Globes), but was that random person who couldn't make it with Oscar (though was clearly sixth place)
Snap Judgment Ranking: 2/5 stars

The Academy Awards can occasionally be deeply cruel to a movie.  That nomination morning, you might end up being a film like The Grand Budapest Hotel, overwhelmed with nine nominations, many of which you hardly expected and suddenly people will see your film (indefinitely) as a major motion picture.  Then there are films like Selma or The Dark Knight, a film that still manages to be part of the conversation, even if it isn't in all of the categories you expect.  And finally there is a movie like Cake, a film that had all of its hopes pinned on that one person making the list, and then suddenly they land in sixth or seventh place and the film becomes suddenly colored in a poor light.  "Not good enough for a nomination" despite its inclusion in other major critics awards and the Globes, it becomes a film that has a quick theater life and likely becomes the sort of movie that's on one of the subsidiary Showtime channels and that's about it.  Which is a pity, because on occasion those films and the nomination they were gunning for are totally worth the price of admission, which is the case with Cake, which houses a superb piece of work by Jennifer Aniston that I would have nominated even if Oscar wouldn't have.

(Spoilers Ahead) The movie is about Claire Bennett (Aniston) a woman who has clearly given up on happiness in the wake of a car accident that killed her son and caused her to have chronic pain.  She's left her husband, and her only companions are her saintly maid (Barraza) and her support group, who is reeling from the death of the seemingly perfect Nina (Kendrick).  The film unfolds with Claire trying to find her purpose in life, first tracking down Nina's footsteps trying to decide why she killed herself (and if this is something Claire needs to consider) and what happens to you once everything in your life has been ripped away from you.

It's a heavy subject, but the film handles it pretty lightly, as you would expect from a movie named after a pastry.  The movie's plot notes are totally predictable-there is no point in the film that comes across as surprising.  We all know that Claire will continue down her trek toward self-destruction until it's clear that she's got something new to live toward (potentially returning to her husband or her new friend/theoretical love interest in Worthington), but the film doesn't cover new ground or even start a new conversation.  It's this reason, quite frankly, that I think that the critics were on the nose with the relative panning that this particular movie received.

Except, of course, for that central performance.  Jennifer Aniston has been dramatic before, most notably in The Good Girl (which is an AWFUL movie and a middling performance at best), but here she's completely on-point.  Aniston's Claire is sarcastic, a narcissist, and a pain-in-the-ass, but she knows it and she knows what her charms are.  She continues to be funny, and all of Aniston's greatest attributes as a movie star (save for her sun-kissed beauty) are on full-display here.  The razor sharp timing we saw in Rachel Green all those years keeps the film light and watachable, and that's the key in a familiar movie: how do you say something new with the same old formula?  You do that with a wonderful central performance that shows how idiotically comedy casting directors have been behaving by casting Aniston in dreck (admittedly, this also probably falls on the feet of the star and her agent as well, but as we learned with Michael Keaton and Channing Tatum earlier this year, casting directors are amply rewarded when they get creative).

Overall, then, while this is no one's idea of a great movie, it does house a great performance, which is a pity that it faltered in what is a very solid Best Actress field (though I'd quickly drop Felicity Jones in favor of Jennifer Aniston, even though pundits insist I lose Marion Cotillard instead), and if you're a fan of Aniston this is a movie that you should check out.  At least those are my thoughts-how about yours?  Do you wish that Aniston had made the Best Actress race as well?  And if so, whom would you cut?  Share your thoughts in the comments!

Jennifer Aniston & David Oyelowo: Are They Done with Oscar?

As part of my reaction to the Oscars, I've been thinking in particular the strangeness of Jennifer Aniston and David Oyelowo, and their surprise snubs at the Oscars, and I thought it would be interesting to put some numbers behind their particular misses, principally because of their Golden Globe nominations in the lead drama categories.

Now everyone knows that, particularly with Best Actress, a nomination in the Drama category doesn't necessarily translate into a nomination with Oscar.  Usually at least one person misses in translation, either for a lead in a Musical/Comedy or for a film that wasn't quite the HFPA's fancy.  However, from what I am gathering, most of the time the one that misses happens to be someone that either is an Oscar nominee or is about to be one.  With Best Actress, of the women that didn't get nominated for the Oscar in the past ten years, 76% of them were Oscar nominees or, in one case (Maggie Gyllenhaal) were about to become Oscar nominees; with men, it's 71%.  So adding in the preponderance for Globe nominees to make it to the Oscars, and that almost all Globe nominees either are or are eventually nominated for the Oscar, and you have to ask yourself-just how rare are Jennifer Aniston and David Oyelowo, and is this the end-of-the-road for their Oscar dreams?

It's actually extraordinarily rare to win a Golden Globe nomination for drama and not go on to win an Oscar nomination for the same role if it's your first chance, in fact.  In the 72 year history of the awards, only 18 men and 31 women have been nominated for a lead Golden Globe for Best Drama and not gotten an Oscar nomination at some point in their careers (including, now, Aniston and Oyelowo).  The bulk of these nominees, it should also be noted happened before 1984-in the past thirty years only 20 of these people have been part of this statistic.  This is partially because the modernized campaigns for Oscars make the actual field of potential nominees smaller.  We know headed into Oscar nomination morning, for example, that only 7-8 nominees have a legitimate shot at being selected, and that list almost always includes a Globe nominee for Best Drama.  Aniston and Oyelowo become even rarer when you subtract candidates such as Tobey Maguire in Brothers, Idris Elba in Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom, and Maria Bello in A History of Violence, all three of whom were not considered serious candidates with AMPAS or were competing at the Oscars in a supporting category.

These 49 men and women run-the-gamut in terms of star power, though it's worth noting that most of them were giving what would be considered their defining cinematic performance.  Only a couple (such as Rita Hayworth and Jim Carrey) were superstars at the time or at any time in their career, making the bulk of those that missed more in-line with where Oyelowo is in his career rather than Aniston.  Many of them, in fact, largely gave up on their careers in film and went on to much more successful careers in television, including Rachel Chagall, Jessica Walter, and Treat Williams.  Others strayed away from dramatic acting as a vocation, moving over to comedy where they enjoyed success but where it is considerably harder to gain an Oscar nomination (Mia Farrow springs to mind).

But the question here is whether or not Aniston or Oyelowo have what it takes to get off this list and become an Oscar nominee, and while they had an incredibly bad string of luck headed to this point (being that it is unusually rare for them to have missed, statistically), they will need a solid amount of good luck to make the jump from just-miss back into Oscar's good graces.  That's because only 15 people have landed the Globe nomination, missed with Oscar, and then went on to gain an Oscar nomination for a later performance.  That's only 23%, which is not great for either of these actors.  It's worth noting that if Aniston or Oyelowo want to become Oscar nominees, they need to start cranking out the prestige fast.  60% of those nominees that made the jump from the Globes to the Oscars did it within five years, and all but three did it within ten.  The three standouts had second waves in their careers: Dean Stockwell making the leap to comedy 28 years later in Married to the Mob, Anthony Hopkins getting his scene-stealing work in The Silence of the Lambs thirteen years after Magic, and Kathleen Quinlan gaining a coattail nomination in Apollo 13 eighteen years after her schizophrenic turn as a young woman in I Never Promised You a Rose Garden.  For Aniston in particular it may also pay off to go supporting-66% of the female Globe nominees got their first Oscar nomination in supporting.

A few more things before we finish this (very technical) article.  First, it should be noted that if Aniston or Oyelowo get nominated, that doesn't mean one-and-done.  Particularly for Oyelowo, many of the male nominees have gone on to win multiple nominations in their careers, including Anthony Hopkins (4 nods), Nick Nolte (3 nods), and Brad Pitt (5 nods and counting).  This also doesn't mean that they should give up on their dreams of actually holding an Oscar of their own-just under a third of the fifteen have won Oscars, and several of them (like Maggie Gyllenhaal and Michael Fassbender) are relatively young in their careers.

And lastly, Aniston and Oyelowo aren't the only ones trying their darndest to get off of the list of 49 actors who have a Globe nomination but not Oscar.  As we mentioned above, Jim Carrey, Tobey Maguire, Idris Elba, and Maria Bello are still working constantly and could still score.  Other names such as Evan Rachel Wood, Zhang Ziyi, Emily Blunt, James McAvoy, Scarlett Johansson, and Richard Gere all appear in movies quite frequently (it's worth noting that Gere and Johansson are the only two actors in history to twice be nominated for Globes in Drama and still not be Oscar nominees).  Blunt and Johansson, in particular, have made something of a career of being nominated for the Globes and not being cited with Oscar (both have four Globe nominations for film without an Oscar citation), and are arguably the two that seem most likely to jump off the list.

But in the meantime all we have to do is speculate-do you think Jennifer Aniston, David Oyelowo, or any of these contenders will make the jump from Golden Globe nominee to Oscar nominee?  If so, who, and which will go first?  Share your thoughts in the comments below!

2014 Golden Globe Predictions!

Sunday night a select few of the richest and most beautiful people in the world are about to get that third rung of fame: accolades.  The Golden Globes, one of the best and thankfully most chaeotic of awards shows will be airing on NBC, and I figured it was high-time that I get my predictions out.  The Globes are always extremely adventurous when it comes to television, and if I am feeling particularly ambitious later this week I may take a stab at who will win there (where new shows like How to Get Away with Murder, Transparent, and Jane the Virgin may well start a mad stomp through the SAG and Emmy Awards...or they are never heard of again-like I said, the Globes be crazy).  However, for the time being we'll stick with the film categories, which I'm most eager to investigate.  Without further adieu...

Best Motion Picture-Drama

Boyhood
Foxcatcher
The Imitation Game
Selma
The Theory of Everything

My Prediction: Selma has had the most bizarre awards run of the season, where it gets shut out in some places (thanks to the screener issue) but scores big in others.  I can't quite tell what will happen here-occasionally the Globes buck the trend even if there's no shot at a Best Picture win (remember Atonement beating No Country for Old Men and Michael Clayton back in the day?), so Selma could still be a major player, but I'm going to go with Boyhood with The Imitation Game behind it.  Boyhood has so much critical love that I think that all of those critics' wins will result in it winning at least one major televised prize.  The Globes could be it.

Best Motion Picture-Comedy/Musical

Birdman
The Grand Budapest Hotel
Into the Woods
Pride
St. Vincent

My Prediction: I'm still through-the-moon that Pride managed this shock nomination, but there's no way that it actually pulls off victory.  It's unwise to ever completely bet against a musical (all things being equal, they tend to prefer musicals over comedies), but Birdman is the only film on this list that is a serious threat to win the Oscar, and that's going to be impossible to ignore.

Best Actor in a Drama

Steve Carell, Foxcatcher
Benedict Cumberbatch, The Imitation Game
Jake Gyllenhaal, Nightcrawler
David Oyelowo, Selma
Eddie Redmayne, The Theory of Everything

My Prediction: I hate when everyone frames every category in terms of Oscar, but on occasion it's impossible not to, and in terms of Oscar, winning this trophy will have HUGE consequences.  I believe at this point that Michael Keaton has slipped into a small but real lead for the Best Actor Oscar, so being the dramatic foil to him would be a huge coup for any of these men.  I genuinely feel that Oyelowo, Cumberbatch, and Redmayne all have equal shots, but I'm going to guess Redmayne, who is probably the most charming on the stump (the Globes have a small voting body, so being willing to "play the game" helps considerably), and who will put himself in a great position if Keaton's not as popular with AMPAS.

Best Actress in a Drama

Jennifer Aniston, Cake
Felicity Jones, The Theory of Everything
Julianne Moore, Still Alice
Rosamund Pike, Gone Girl
Reese Witherspoon, Wild

My Prediction: If Jennifer Aniston wants to make a major play at the televised awards, this is the time to do it.  Consider this: the voting body of HFPA is right around 100 (small enough that Aniston could easily know every member personally, considering her Globe-winning tenure on Friends), her main competition Julianne Moore is splitting the vote with her nomination over in Comedy, and of all of the awards bodies Aniston's celebrity will carry the most weight with the Globes.  Lest we forget, the Sandra Bullock bandwagon started here.  Still, I'm going to go with Julianne Moore, whom I suspect is about to clobber everyone when it comes to Best Actress.

Best Actor in a Comedy/Musical

Ralph Fiennes, The Grand Budapest Hotel
Michael Keaton, Birdman
Bill Murray, St. Vincent
Joaquin Phoenix, Inherent Vice
Chritoph Waltz, Big Eyes

My Prediction: Congratulations Ralph, Bill, Joaquin, and Christoph-you all get a nice meal, a new tux, and something to add to your resume.  You won't, however, be getting a trophy as Michael Keaton's about to win the easiest Globe of the night.

Best Actress in a Comedy/Musical

Amy Adams, Big Eyes
Emily Blunt, Into the Woods
Helen Mirren, The Hundred-Foot Journey
Julianne Moore, Maps to the Stars
Quvenzhane Wallis, Annie

My Prediction: This could go three ways.  The Globes could go with the woman most likely to be nominated for the Oscar, which would be Amy Adams (though she just won last year, otherwise this would be easy).  They could go with a spread-the-wealth theory and give Julianne Moore the trophy here while giving Jennifer Aniston the victory in Drama.  Or they could go with Emily Blunt, who has won before but for television, and whose win would be a way of acknowledging the year's biggest musical.  My gut says that that's what they're about to do.

Best Supporting Actor

Robert Duvall, The Judge
Ethan Hawke, Boyhood
Edward Norton, Birdman
Mark Ruffalo, Foxcatcher
J.K. Simmons, Whiplash

My Prediction: In a category that has gained yawns from almost everyone this season (including moi), we're about to see the first of seemingly hundreds of speeches from JK Simmons, who at least seems pretty funny (plus, I have a feeling that Edward Norton will be scowling after losing most of these trophies this season, and a sore loser is usually more fun to see than a gracious loser face).

Best Supporting Actress

Patricia Arquette, Boyhood
Jessica Chastain, A Most Violent Year
Keira Knightley, The Imitation Game
Emma Stone, Birdman
Meryl Streep, Into the Woods

My Prediction: I should maybe throw out something crazy like Emma Stone for Birdman (which is not far-fetched-it's rare for two women over forty to stampede both Best Actress and Supporting Actress), and if this race is going to make a shift from critical favorite to televised consensus favorite, now would be the time.  Still, the smart money's on Arquette and I'll stay there until I have proof otherwise (it helps that Arquette has never won a Globe in her long career).

Best Director

Wes Anderson, The Grand Budapest Hotel
Ava DuVernay, Selma
David Fincher, Gone Girl
Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, Birdman
Richard Linklater, Boyhood

My Prediction: Richard Linklater is hardly as much of a star with this crowd as Fincher or Inarritu, but he may be too "set-in-stone" to not get this win.  If Boyhood takes Best Picture, it's difficult to see him missing here as well, so I'll go with him over Inarritu.

Best Screenplay

Birdman
Boyhood
Gone Girl
The Grand Budapest Hotel
The Imitation Game

My Prediction: Part of me thinks that everyone is underestimating Gillian Flynn, who is definitely the biggest celebrity nominated in this bunch, but I'll go with what most people are thinking: if Boyhood takes Director, then Birdman wins for writing.

Best Original Score

Birdman
Gone Girl
The Imitation Game
Interstellar
The Theory of Everything

My Prediction: The Globes could go with Antonio Sanchez for Birdman just as a screw you to the Academy (they do that more than you'd think in the music categories), but I'm going to guess Alexandre Desplat for The Imitation Game both because it's an easy way to honor a big film and because Desplat is a favorite with the Globes who hasn't won in a while.

Best Original Song

"Big Eyes," Big Eyes
"Glory," Selma
"Mercy Is," Noah
"Opportunity," Annie
"Yellow Flicker Beat," The Hunger Games: Mockingjay, Part 1

My Prediction: The combination of the most-nominated film in the bunch and major music stars in Common and John Legend make "Glory" the toughest act to beat, which I doubt anyone will.

Best Foreign Language Film

Force Majeure
Gett: The Trial of Viviane Ansalem
Ida
Leviathan
Tangerines

My Prediction: The Oscars are more likely to dethrone a frontrunner here than the Globes, so Ida takes a pivotal step toward Poland FINALLY breaking its streak with AMPAS.

Best Animated Film

Big Hero 6
The Book of Life
The Boxtrolls
How to Train Your Dragon 2
The Lego Movie

My Prediction: Everything will be awesome for the crew over at Warner Brothers, who will score their first trophy in this category with The Lego Movie.

And there you have it-my guesses about this year's Globes.  What are your thoughts?  Who are you most looking forward to winning?  And most importantly, which of these celebrities are we going to catch being drunk on camera?

2015 Predictions

It's time to make New Year's predictions for 2015!  Last year, I gave this a shot and my results were questionable at best (I got 6/20 on the political predictions and 5/14 on entertainment...possibly 7 depending on the Chastain and Pixar ones).  Despite these terrible prediction ratios, I'm going to give it a shot again this year, though since it's an off-political year, I'm giving the twenty predictions to entertainment.

20 Predictions About Entertainment

1. Seth Rogen and James Franco receive a standing ovation when they present an award at either the Globes or Oscars.

2. Jennifer Aniston takes at least one major Best Actress prize from Julianne Moore, though not the Oscar.

3. Avengers: Age of Ultron ends up making more money than Star Wars, but Star Wars gets a better Rotten Tomatoes score and more Oscar nominations.

4. Viola Davis gets an Emmy nomination while Kerry Washington does not, receiving calls of racism since two black women aren't nominated in the same category despite history indicating they probably would normally be.

5. At least one major celebrity will be outed by a phone hacking.

6. Kelli O'Hara finally takes home a Tony Award for her role as Anna in yet another King & I revival.

7. Kristin Chenoweth ends her unusual Tony Award nomination drought when she is nominated for On the Twentieth Century.

8. The end of Glee results in a number of articles about how the show never lived up to its pilot, despite it being relatively strong its first couple of seasons.

9. Ansel Elgort ends up signing a major leading role with a prestige director, as well as a superhero role in an upcoming comic book film.

10. Stephen Colbert's turn on the Late Show will receive mixed reviews at best.

11. Spy with Melissa McCarthy ends up being another massive hit, causing her to FINALLY get her first Golden Globe nomination.

12. Adele releases her third album and it becomes the highest-grossing record of the year, despite most complaining it isn't as good as 21.

13. Rush Limbaugh will say something truly despicable about Michael B. Jordan playing the Human Torch in Fantastic Four, and no one on the Right will call him on it.

14. Neil Patrick Harris will sing at least two musical numbers during the Oscars, the latter involving rapping and "edge" and yet neither will land properly.

15. Shane Dawson will quit YouTube as an onscreen personality.

16. The Duke and Duchess of Cambridge will give birth to a baby girl, and Elizabeth will be one of her names, though not necessarily the first.

17. In retaliation, Kim Kardashian will become pregnant yet again.  Her sister Khloe will become one of the biggest tabloid cover models of the year when she ends up in an equally high-profile relationship with another celebrity, causing accusations of a feud between the two.

18. Justin Bieber will be arrested.  Possibly so will Lindsay Lohan, but no one will care.

19. One Direction break-up rumors will fly when the band members start recording duets as solo artists, though they'll stick it out through the year.

20. Looking will not get strong enough ratings, resulting in it being cancelled during its second season, which will cause at least two rants on this blog.

15 Predictions About Politics

1. President Obama's approval ratings recover in the face of an improving economy, though they never steadily remain above 50%.

2. Hillary Clinton, Jeb Bush, Rand Paul, and Chris Christie all declare their intentions to run for president.

3. Elizabeth Warren, Joe Biden, and Paul Ryan do not.

4. Rep. Tammy Duckworth becomes the Senate nominee for the seat in Illinois.

5. Sec. Alison Lundergan Grimes watches her once promising career go up in flames as she loses reelection in Kentucky.

6. The Democrats also lose the governor's race in Kentucky without picking up Mississippi or Louisiana, marking their lowest count of governor's mansions in 17 years.

7. Gov. Peter Shumlin, despite a major push by Republicans, will win another term in Vermont despite a weird aberration in the voting law that has left his race undecided months after the November elections despite him winning the popular vote.

8. Sen. Barbara Boxer's retirement will cause major headaches for Democrats in California, as a number of ambitious Democrats enter the primary, causing worries of two Republicans advancing to the runoff.

9. Former Senator Russ Feingold will run for his old seat in the U.S. Senate, setting up a marquee matchup against the man who defeated him in 2010, Ron Johnson.  Other former senators such as Mark Begich and Kay Hagan will be courted to run for seats in their states, but will ultimately decide against it.

10. No member of Congress will switch parties.

11. President Obama will end up signing the Keystone Pipeline into law, but not without at least one major concession from the Congress (likely on immigration).

12. Bernie Sanders decides to run for president under a third-party banner, potentially causing him to be dumped from the Democratic caucus of the Senate and causing major comparisons to Ralph Nader.

13. Harry Reid and John McCain both end up running for reelection, with McCain getting a very strong third party challenge from the right.  As a result, expect maverick McCain to disappear into arch-conservative McCain for a while.

14. George W. Bush hits the campaign trail in the South for his brother Jeb, ending both his moratorium on campaigning and his silence on the Obama administration.

15. The NRSC and NRCC go back to continually out-earning the DSCC and DCCC.

And those are my predictions for this upcoming year-what about yours?  What are you expecting to see in the year ahead?

Ten Thoughts on the SAG Nominations

It's always hard to decide when to declare it the beginning of "awards season," but the first awards nominations that are clearly meant to be parceled through, both because you'll actually be watching the ceremony and because the Oscars are definitely paying attention, are the SAG Awards, who had their nominations this morning.  I could spend this article going through the TV awards, but I generally find those to be pretty boring (honestly, this show is more predictive than anything-the only thing that's usually entertaining is the Life Achievement Award, which is going to Debbie Reynolds this year...the Globes it ain't).  You can find a full list of the nominations here (including TV), but I'm only going to pay attention to a couple of nominees both who made it and didn't.  Without further adieu, here are my ten random thoughts about this morning's nominations.

1. Naomi Watts for Birdman...wait, St. Vincent...wait, what, Naomi Watts?!?

The biggest surprise in any category this morning was surely the surprise nomination for Naomi Watts in the Best Supporting Actress category for the comedy St. Vincent.  Watts was a key player in the Best Picture frontrunner Birdman, but was a total shocker for this film, and quite frankly the only place anyone expected to see her name was in the cast nomination for Birdman (which she also got).  While I doubt that this means she's getting a third Oscar nomination this year (the film is small, she's splitting her vote with Birdman, and the SAG Awards sometimes do kooky things like this-remember Cloris Leachman for Spanglish?), this may indicate stronger support for St. Vincent than expected.  While it's widely believed that Bill Murray would score a Globe nomination tomorrow, this could mean the film could score a Best Picture or Actress nomination (which would be Melissa McCarthy's first nomination with the HFPA, if you can believe it), and perhaps even a writing nomination somewhere.  It's worth noting that this is one of Harvey Weinstein's movies, so if there's momentum he'll take advantage of it.

2. Get On Up gets on up into the Stunt Category

Close behind Naomi's nomination in terms of crazy and unexpected was Get On Up in the Best Stunt category.  This ranks right up there with All is Lost in terms of this category, principally because Chadwick Boseman, the star of the film, did his splits and own dancing, so where precisely were the stunts?  It likely won't win, but it's still an unusual overall nomination.

3. Did Jake Gyllenhaal Knock Out the Wrong Contender?

There's no question this morning that Jake Gyllenhaal had a marvelous morning.  A nomination was hardly certain for his terrific work in Nightcrawler, and this citation will keep him in the conversation for the rest of awards season.  However, you have to wonder if he may have just put himself in sixth, but not the more vital fifth.  That's because the missing "frontrunner" is not presumed fifth place contender Steve Carell (for Foxcatcher), but David Oyelowo for Selma, which didn't get a strong push with the SAG Awards but is expected to do considerably better with AMPAS.  Carell got the same sort of push that Gyllenhaal did this morning, which may keep Jake just at bay, even though he's clearly a stronger part of the conversation after this morning.

4. Three Men Enter, Two Men Leave in Best Supporting Actor

It's long been assumed that Ethan Hawke, Edward Norton, and JK Simmons would be getting three of the nominations in Best Supporting Actor.  This morning we saw two of their potential rivals make major stakes in the race: Robert Duvall in The Judge (review to come later this week) and Mark Ruffalo in Foxcatcher.  Both men were sort of on the sidelines in terms of nominations waiting to be called in, but no longer.  This race is begging for contenders, and when that happens for this category specifically, it usually means a lockstep situation so if Duvall or Ruffalo nab a nomination at the Globes tomorrow, expect them to also be at the Dolby.  In fact, the only other man I see as being a real threat for AMPAS is Selma's Tom Wilkinson, who is an Oscar favorite and could gain if that movie continues to grow in buzz.  That essentially leaves three men fighting over two slots-which one do you think will be the discarded?

5. Jennifer Aniston, Oscar Nominee?

We talked about this a bit earlier this year, but Jennifer Aniston's little engine that could push for a nomination (she's been talking to everyone about this film and trying to land a Top 5 slot) had a HUGE win this morning, getting the fifth slot in what is looking like a race where there's only one opening (Reese Witherspoon, Felicity Jones, Rosamund Pike, and Julianne Moore all seem pretty locked into place).  Aniston's personal popularity and the "I can't believe she could do it" aspects of the work could be the key to her becoming the most surprising Oscar nominee since Sandra Bullock in The Blind Side (and lest we think it ends there, let's not forget what happened to Sandy when that happened...).

6. The Imitation Game is Still in This Thing

Over the past few weeks Oscar pundits have been cutting the fat a bit, proclaiming Birdman, Selma, and Boyhood the frontrunners for the Best Picture race over this biopic, but Harvey managed to land his contender in the field just in time, scoring three nominations, including one for the Best Cast category (which frequently serves a proxy for Best Picture).  This should help it if it does equally well with the Globes to stay afloat amidst surging competitors.

7. Michael Keaton Has Won Best Actor

Birdman has become basically unstoppable this year in terms of the critics, the SAG Awards, and likely the Oscars.  It has to win something, and something big.  With JK Simmons certain to win supporting, the film being a bit "out there" for Best Picture, and Emma Stone in a position where she's not quite important enough to the narrative to actually win the trophy (which is looking more and more likely to go to Patricia Arquette), that leaves Keaton to carry the banner.  It helps that he's absolutely certain to win the Globe, and he's facing off against two actors with similar profiles (Eddie Redmayne and Benedict Cumberbatch: young, British, and playing real life men in period films).  This appears to be nearly as certain as Simmons right now.

8. So, Where Are We at with Best Supporting Actress?

Naomi Watts name is now, of course, a part of the conversation even if she doesn't actually make it to the Dolby, but where does this put us for Supporting Actress?  We may be in a position where Meryl Streep, Keira Knightley, Emma Stone, and Patricia Arquette, long assumed to be the four frontrunners, are in fact living up to the hype, but there's still one more slot.  Watts will now mount a campaign, I'd imagine, but you also have Laura Dern, Jessica Chastain, and Carmen Ejogo all making serious plays for it (Dern and Chastain, in particular, have been hitting the pavement something ferocious).  This all means...

9. We Know Who Needs to Land the Golden Globes

Certain people can rest easy tomorrow.  The likes of Robert Duvall, Jennifer Aniston, Mark Ruffalo, and Emma Stone can rest easy tomorrow knowing that if they score a nomination, it's just gravy but they're still in the race for the Oscars.  However, a few other people should be sweating nervously.  Laura Dern, Hilary Swank, Marion Cotillard, and everyone involved with Selma, American Sniper, and Unbroken had better be hoping for a big showing tomorrow, or they will be in a severely weakened position for the remainder of the year.

10. Did the Best Picture Field Just Expand?

One of the biggest conversation pieces this year is if we will finally have less than nine nominations in the "in flux" Best Picture race.  Since this voting rule began, all of the Best Picture fields have had nine films, but many thought that this year, with so few movies gaining traction, that it might end up being less (perhaps only the frontrunners: Selma, The Theory of Everything, The Imitation Game, Boyhood, and Birdman).  However, this morning we saw a stronger push for Foxcatcher and The Grand Budapest Hotel, both of which could capitalize on major wins today to land a citation in the Best Picture field (though Budapest's biggest and most important producer, Scott Rudin, is likely pre-occupied considering the PR nightmare he's currently in).  Throw in Whiplash, Unbroken, and American Sniper who all may do well tomorrow at the Globes and you may add up to nine just yet.

And those are my thoughts this afternoon about the SAG Award nominations-what are yours?  What had you spitting out your morning coffee, and who gained/lost the most?  Share your thoughts in the comments!

Oscar Trivia: Stars Without an Oscar-Nominated Film

There are a lot of perks with being a movie star.  Global fame, money, free clothes, international platforms, legions of fans, people fawning over you, and you’re probably already gorgeous so you had that going for you to begin with.  However, one of the less-noted pieces of fame is that you generally have an Oscar-nominated film or two in your repertoire.  In fact, it’s extremely difficult to come up with a list of genuinely famous actors who have not been in an Oscar-nominated film (which is what I did below) and more importantly, it’s going to be a lot harder next year as many of the below actors are in major motion pictures that could be part of the Oscar conversation.

You may be thinking that this is a super easy game to play, but it’s not, as it isn’t just Meryl Streep and George Clooney movies that get nominated for the Oscars.  Adam Sandler, for example, starred in Click which was nominated for Best Makeup.  Miley Cyrus was the voice of a little girl in the Oscar-nominated Bolt.  Mike Myers had a bit part in Inglourious Basterds.  Kevin James had a role in Monster House.  By-and-large, if you’re famous enough to open a movie, you’re probably famous enough to have been in an Oscar-nominated film.  However, the ten below actors have never been (through my checking on IMDB) in an Oscar-nominated film and regularly star in motion pictures.  Let’s jump in and see when they got the closest/and if they have a shot this year!

Jessica Alba

Lifetime Gross: $931 million

Biggest Hit: Fantastic Four ($154 million)

Highest-Rated (all highest-rated according to Rotten Tomatoes Freshness Rating): Stretch

Best Shot She Had: I would assume it would be Sin City, which got nominated by the Sound Editors branch for a Golden Reel Award and received a number of critical awards from the St. Louis, Washington DC, and San Diego critics groups.

Does She Have a Shot This Year?: Doubtful-if the first Sin City film couldn’t make it, I have little confidence that its sequel will.

Jennifer Aniston

Lifetime Gross: $1.41 billion

Biggest Hit: Bruce Almighty ($242 million)

Highest-Rated: The Iron Giant

Best Shot She Had: Considering that it was in the years before the Animated Feature category, the reality is that the critically-celebrated The Iron Giant was never going to be a genuine player.  However, none of Aniston’s other films came close to being nominated, so I’m going to go with Iron Giant in perhaps a writing category (had the Animated Feature category existed at the time, Aniston wouldn't be on this list).

Does She Have a Shot This Year?: As we discussed earlier this month, absolutely; Aniston is, in my opinion, one of the current frontrunners for Best Actress and could score not only a nomination, but a nomination for herself with Cake.

Zac Efron

Lifetime Gross: $813 million

Biggest Hit: Dr. Seuss’ The Lorax ($214 million)

Highest-Rated: Hairspray

Best Shot He Had: If there’s a genuinely surprising person on this list, it would be Efron, who has been in some films with major shots at the Oscars.  Hairspray and The Paperboy both got Golden Globe nominations for acting, and Me and Orson Welles scored an acting nod at the BAFTA’s.  All-in-all, I think that he’s probably been the closest of any of these ten actors.

Does He Have a Shot This Year?: Not really-Neighbors was a big hit, but it’s not Oscar BAIT in the slightest.

Tina Fey

Lifetime Gross: $530 million

Biggest Hit: Megamind ($148 million)

Highest-Rated: Elaine Stritch: Shoot Me

Best Shot She Had: Megamind was a contender in a particularly competitive year for Animated Feature, but that Box Office might have helped it had the year gone five-wide.  I would assume, though, that Mean Girls could have been a contender in Best Screenplay if it had been the phenomenon upon release that it is now, so I’ll go with that.

Does She Have a Shot This Year?: Yes, kind of.  While I don’t 100% know if the Elaine Stritch documentary should count, she definitely was a key player in Muppets Most Wanted, which could end up in the Best Original Song category, as that franchise frequently scores music nods.  A little more Box Office would certainly have helped her odds, though.

Katherine Heigl

Lifetime Gross: $745 million

Biggest Hit: Knocked Up ($148 million)

Highest-Rated: King of the Hill (not the hit FOX animated series, but instead an early 1990’s Steven Soderbergh drama)

Best Shot She Had: I would assume that at some point Judd Apatow was in contention for a writing award considering the critical acclaim and box office he typically gets.  Knocked Up is the most likely contender of his films to have gotten some votes in that column.

Does She Have a Shot This Year?: No-Heigl is far more concerned about the ratings of State of Affairs, her highly-anticipated return to television than she is getting an Oscar-nominated film on her résumé this year.

Dwayne "The Rock" Johnson

Lifetime Gross: $1.639 billion

Biggest Hit: Fast and Furious 6 ($239 million)

Highest-Rated: Racing Dreams

Best Shot He Had: He's been in a couple of major visual effects feasts, principally The Mummy Returns, which would have been his best shot at a nominated film.

Does He Have a Shot This Year?: No-neither of the two Hercules movies is a film many people will remember a week after they saw it, much less months later for a high honor.

Lindsay Lohan

Lifetime Gross: $492 million

Biggest Hit: Freaky Friday ($110 million)

Highest-Rated: Teenage Paparazzo

Best Shot She Had: Bobby at one point was supposed to be an awards contender, but only got cited by the SAG Awards, and working with Robert Altman usually results in a citation for acting or directing, but A Prairie Home Companion couldn't quite cut it in that regard.

Does She Have a Shot This Year?: No-Lohan doesn't even have a film out this year, I believe, and is far more focused on-well, being a tabloid fixture?  Everything she touches lately turns to lead (not even Oprah could save her), so I am assuming this isn't going to happen, and she won't be considered a movie star in the same way the other nine are in a few years.

Kellan Lutz

Lifetime Gross: $1.48 billion

Biggest Hit: The Twilight Saga: Eclipse ($300 million)

Highest-Rated: Love is All You Need

Best Shot He Had: You may question Kellan Lutz as a movie star, but he's headlining films now and has made more box office than most people on this list, so I'm going to stick with him for now.  Probably the only chance he had was during the Twilight series when it came to Best Original Song, as there were a number of hits from those films that could have been contenders if Oscar had been willing to look past the glittering vampires.

Does He Have a Shot This Year?: The Legend of Hercules doesn’t really seem Oscar-worthy even by the low standards of Best Makeup, so no.

Paul Rudd

Lifetime Gross: $1.143 billion

Biggest Hit: Monsters vs. Aliens ($198 million)

Highest-Rated: Casting By

Best Shot He Had: Probably either Clueless or The Perks of Being a Wallflower, both critically-acclaimed, particularly for their screenplays, but probably left off of the list due to the youth-oriented aspects of the films.

Does He Have a Shot This Year?: No-his movie with Amy Poehler They Came Together barely made a blip on the radar screen (did you know it was released)?

 Channing Tatum

Lifetime Gross: $1.721 billion

Biggest Hit: The Lego Movie ($257 million)

Highest-Rated: Foxcatcher

Best Shot He Had: Honestly, maybe Magic Mike?  Matthew McConaughey easily could have scored a nomination for the film, though if we don’t count that, than perhaps Public Enemies (Art Direction) or GI Joe (Visual Effects).

Does He Have a Shot This Year?: He’ll be off of this list this year.  Tatum not only has the critically-acclaimed Foxcatcher making plays for writing, acting, and Best Picture, but he has two animated films that could factor into the Animated Feature race: The Lego Movie and The Book of Life.

There are the eight-what are your thoughts?  Who gets off this list first?  What major actors am I missing?  And which actor that I name-checked that does have a nominated film are you most surprised to see included?  Share in the comments!