2024 Oscar Viewing Project

For the first time ever, I finished watching all of the Oscar Viewing Project nominees before the Oscars, a huge moment for me overall.  I didn't do my official year-end awards my brother, however, until this past weekend, so I am publishing both this AND the My Ballot weeks after I finished these (and am actually writing this before the Oscars so for the first time ever I am doing this without knowing whom Oscar actually picked).  As is tradition (we will not do our 20+ articles anymore, but I will be logging every completed OVP in one giant article here when I finish, hopefully on a monthly cadence for either an OVP or My Ballot going forward), here is the Top 10 of the domestic box office:

1. Inside Out 2

2. Deadpool & Wolverine

3. Wicked

4. Moana 2

5. Despicable Me 4

6. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice

7. Dune: Part Two

8. Twisters

9. Sonic the Hedgehog 3

10. Mufasa: The Lion King

Keeping with recent tradition, I saw virtually all of these, missing only Sonic 3 (is this good...I generally like Jim Carrey, so should I get caught up on these?).  In terms of box office I also missed Bad Boys: Ride or Die, It Ends With Us, and Venom: The Last Dance, but saw virtually every major awards contender (save for Lee with Kate Winslet...again, is it good?), including, of course, the Oscar nominees.  Let's look back on 2024, remembering a time when a Democrat was in the White House, when the President-Elect briefly faced justice for his crimes, and when we were all flipping for Simone Biles & the sexy nerd aesthetic of Stephen Nedoroscik.  And of course, let's remember the movies...

Note from John: When I did this series during the time when I wrote individual articles, and had this blog be a daily part of my life, I made a point of highlighting each nominee in my many write-ups.  While I will be writing these every time I complete a year (hopefully monthly going forward), I can't make that time commitment, either in terms of number of articles or in terms of giving each nominee their due with a mention.  I promise, though, that I have given each nominee their due under the confines of the specific category while making my rankings (and of course I've seen every single nominated picture), including giving higher rankings to movies I didn't like if the craft was better than ones I did like (Oscar should consider that).  Hopefully you enjoy the trimmed-down, but still devoted to the original concept version of the OVP we'll have going forward!

Picture

1. Dune: Part Two

2. Nickel Boys

3. The Brutalist

4. I'm Still Here

5. Conclave

6. Anora

7. A Complete Unknown

8. Wicked

9. The Substance

10. Emilia Perez

The Lowdown: I'll start out by saying something that I suspect gets repeated in this article-I did not think that 2024 was a particularly impressive year for the movies.  In fact, I thought it was the dullest year for movies since 2020, a combination of slavish over-praise of the Oscar fare (which was largely middling more than grand), and many of the blockbusters being underwhelming.  That said, I do really admire the first 3 films on this list.  Dune is better than the original, even if it's not quite as non-descript, Nickel Boys is an experiment that largely works, and The Brutalist is truly perfect until the intermission card comes up.  The rest...well the order speaks for itself, and because Oscar can only focus on ten movies in a given year anymore...we'll get to them all more in detail below.

Director

1. Brady Corbet (The Brutalist)

2. Sean Baker (Anora)

3. Coralie Fargeat (The Substance)

4. James Mangold (A Complete Unknown)

5. Jacques Audiard (Emilia Perez)

The Lowdown: Without Denis Villeneuve, this contest becomes considerably easier.  Corbet botches the ending to The Brutalist, but that's more an issue with the writers and one key supporting actor than the direction, which is really the cornerstone of the movie.  He deserves the win, with Baker second over Fargeat because I think that his story feels easier to get off the rails (and also I liked Anora better than The Substance even though I'll own that Anora is more a writer's movie and The Substance is more a director's picture).  I still can't believe that James Mangold, after years of attempting the same route (middle-of-the-road AMPAS fare like Walk the Line, Girl Interrupted, & Ford v. Ferrari that has no directorial signature) managed to grab a nomination.

Actor

1. Adrien Brody (The Brutalist)

2. Timothee Chalamet (A Complete Unknown)

3. Ralph Fiennes (Conclave)

4. Sebastian Stan (The Apprentice)

5. Colman Domingo (Sing Sing)

The Lowdown: This is as good of a time as any to remind you of two things: 1) The OVP is made in a vacuum, so I do not consider whether someone has an Oscar or not when handing out trophies and 2) I have a My Ballot where I pick my own nominees, and in that I also decide in a vacuum who should win.  This isn't about career awards, so under those circumstances I have no problem handing Adrien Brody a second statue for his luminous work in The Brutalist even if in real-life I might have thrown a bone to the fine work of Chalamet and Fiennes, who are both still hunting for their first Oscar.  I don't think that Sebastian Stan's film choice would impact his ranking (A Different Man would also get him 4th, for the record), though I will admit I'm excited by this direction of his career, as I love a handsome man finding his inner character actor.

Actress

1. Fernanda Torres (I'm Still Here)

2. Mikey Madison (Anora)

3. Demi Moore (The Substance)

4. Cynthia Erivo (Wicked)

5. Karla Sofia Gascon (Emilia Perez)

The Lowdown: With or without the scandal, it's an easy call to put Gascon's performance in fifth.  Emilia Perez is a dreadful, cinematic abortion of a movie (virtually nothing redeemable in it...the worst nominee since Bohemian Rhapsody), and she is not up to snuff as the lead.  For the actual win, I'm going with Torres, whose quiet determination in I'm Still Here has the added bonus of a script that always knows where she's headed, which you cannot say for Madison's (solid) Anora.  Demi Moore's role in The Substance has a lot of fans, and while I think she's better than the movie (which badly overshoots its ending), she can't carry it through & makes Elizabeth too unknowable.

Supporting Actor

1. Yura Borisov (Anora)

2. Kieran Culkin (A Real Pain)

3. Guy Pearce (The Brutalist)

4. Jeremy Strong (The Apprentice)

5. Edward Norton (A Complete Unknown)

The Lowdown: This is a quick reminder that I will always dock a point for any actor who is obviously the lead but is committing category fraud to improve their Oscar chances.  If I was judging based on total performances, I might give it to Culkin's really strong work as a broken man filled with overflowing charisma, but under these rules, there's no way he takes out Borisov's sensitive, brooding security guard in Anora, a scene-stealing performance that makes the movie.  Guy Pearce is the only actor who seems capable of holding together The Brutalist in its back half, but I have him in third both because his competition is good (expect a few repeat names when we get to the My Ballots tomorrow), as well as because I don't think he lands the final moments of the picture quite well enough.  I didn't get what Strong or Norton were doing, and feel like this was a nomination for being showy more than being good.

Supporting Actress

1. Ariana Grande (Wicked)

2. Monica Barbaro (A Complete Unknown)

3. Isabella Rossellini (Conclave)

4. Felicity Jones (The Brutalist)

5. Zoe Saldana (Emilia Perez)

The Lowdown: Once again, Saldana loses a point because she's the lead (without that I think she is ahead of Jones given she at least understands the film's tone).  You could make an argument that Grande is also the lead, but because there's an argument I keep her in first, and honestly even without that I might keep her there due to a weak field.  Barbaro's Joan Baez looks the part, but I wanted a bit more of the ambition of someone who is more famous than Dylan having him usurp her throne, and the lack of resolve there shows how difficult a Dylan biopic was always going to be.  Grande's work is in her wheelhouse, and sometimes borders into parody of Kristin Chenoweth (who is the better actor), but she's so good it's hard to fault feeling indebted to the original.

Adapted Screenplay

1. Nickel Boys

2. Conclave

3. A Complete Unknown

4. Sing Sing

5. Emilia Perez

The Lowdown: I have not read Colson Whitehead's Pulitzer Prize-winning source material (though a copy of it is sitting behind me...the eternal nagging of the books on my shelf that I've never read continues to haunt my dreams), but what comes across on the film is spectacular.  A meditative, thoughtful look at how hard it is to beat the system, and how life can find a way...and a plot can find a way even as you mine Terrence Malick for inspiration.  Conclave would make a worthy winner as well, giving us a really scrumptious 1990's-style thriller that is virtually impossible to find in 2024.

Original Screenplay

1. A Real Pain

2. Anora

3. The Brutalist

4. The Substance

5. September 5

The Lowdown: Jesse Eisenberg's look at how we keep certain people in our lives and in our hearts years after they stop feeling like they fit into whom we became is really wonderful.  I know the focus is on grief, and the mourning that happens when we lose someone we can't replace, but that juxtaposed against the question mark of the friendship that's core to the film is really why this is something special.  Anora and The Brutalist both have wonderful sections, but they don't know how to inform key characters (specifically their female leads) and The Brutalist doesn't know how to make its ending work (which is not the case for Anora-that ending lands the film), so I can't seriously put them against A Real Pain in this field (Eisenberg wins handily).

Animated Feature Film

1. The Wild Robot

2. Flow

3. Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl

4. Memoir of a Snail

5. Inside Out 2

The Lowdown: It's become depressing how predictable this category is, with even the off-beat or independent films heavily telegraphed the entire season so there's no surprises on nomination morning.  One of many reasons why I wish this was only a three-wide like I'll do at tomorrow's My Ballot for 2024.  But taking that out of the equation, this is a solid list, particularly the top two which are completely different looks at how nature cannot endure the touch of humanity.  I went with The Wild Robot because I felt its story more, but either would make a worthy winner.  I will note, that in the first 19 years of this category, Disney/Pixar only got the #5 slot once (2002's Lilo and Stitch)...in the past five years it's gotten it 80% of the time.  This is not an appealing trend for the Mouse House.

International Feature Film

1. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (Germany)

2. Flow (Latvia)

3. I'm Still Here (Brazil)

4. The Girl with the Needle (Denmark)

5. Emilia Perez (France)

The Lowdown: As I said above, I wrote this before the Oscar ceremony, so I don't know any winners, and this is the category I'm most curious to see where it landed (it might not be the most shocking win, but it's the one I am trying to guess if the Emilia Perez buzz has died enough to allow for a different Best Picture nominee instead).  Really, though, this shouldn't be a contest.  While I admire I'm Still Here's look at how sins shouldn't necessarily be forgiven if they're heinous enough (and sure as hell shouldn't be forgotten), and the gorgeous computer game aesthetic of Flow, The Seed of the Sacred Fig was one of the best movies of 2024, full stop.  An engrossing look at fascism and the way that it strips away any shred of humanity you have...assuming you had much to begin with (because fascism also numbs you to such horror).

Sound

1. Dune: Part Two

2. The Wild Robot

3. A Complete Unknown

4. Wicked

5. Emilia Perez

The Lowdown: I still miss when the Sound categories were split in two, but honestly...I get why looking at this.  I will own that I am not giving these statues to the same movie, but it's hard to argue with Dune being the dominant choice here, its gorgeous elevation of the sounds of the deserts of Arrakis combined with new special effects and great crowd work.  Behind it are The Wild Robot (I love the nature sounds, combined with strong music & vocal work) and the concert recreations of A Complete Unknown.  Solid lineup overall, honestly, and I want to say that as most of it I don't repeat tomorrow-lots of good choices this year.

Score

1. The Brutalist

2. The Wild Robot

3. Conclave

4. Emilia Perez

5. Wicked

The Lowdown: This is the first of only two times that an Emilia Perez nomination isn't in last place (the next category is the other one), and there's a reason for that-the musical score of Wicked is lovely, but it's not original...I can't pinpoint anything in the score that isn't borrowing from Stephen Schwartz's fabulous Broadway composition, and so this nomination feels like a cheap way to up Schwartz's (and the film's) Oscar count, even if the actual score is better than Emilia Perez.  That said, the other three scores are all wonderful, and will show up tomorrow with my My Ballot, best of them being the atypical, confrontational work of The Brutalist.

Original Song

1. "Like a Bird" (Sing Sing)

2. "Never Too Late" (Elton John: Never Too Late)

3. "El Mal" (Emilia Perez)

4. "The Journey" (The Six Triple Eight)

5. "Mi Camino" (Emilia Perez)

The Lowdown: I do not think the music in Emilia Perez, even the lauded numbers like "Mi Camino" is any good.  The singing is not strong, the music feels too conversational, and the lyricism is dreadful (the best of the bunch, "La Vaginoplastia" is at least catchy and visually interesting).  That said, "El Mal's" problems are more so the way it's staged (bad lighting & dance direction) than it being a bad song.  Honestly, none of these are that good, both because 2024 wasn't a great year for film tunes, and because Oscar needed to get creative to come up with a decent lineup in a year where there weren't many good choices.  I picked "Like a Bird" because it's fitting to the film and doesn't feel as disposable as Elton John's "Never Too Late," a song that has his great vocals but feels like a cheap ending after hearing so many actual classics in the documentary.

Cinematography

1. The Brutalist

2. Dune: Part Two

3. Maria

4. Nosferatu

5. Emilia Perez

The Lowdown: We'll get into the Best Picture nominee that I can't believe didn't make this lineup tomorrow when we discuss the My Ballot, but for today let's all be thankful for the two deserved nominees that DID make it.  Between The Brutalist and Dune: Part Two, I'm favoring The Brutalist more so because it's truly inventive and it pays off...getting experimental with a movie can always be a risk, so when that risk pays off, you need to use it to break the tie, but both are sensational.  That Emilia Perez is nominated here, given that they literally couldn't even get the lighting cues right during the centerpiece musical number, is insanity to me-other than Best Actress, maybe the worst nomination from the film?

Costume Design

1. Wicked

2. Conclave

3. A Complete Unknown

4. Gladiator II

5. Nosferatu

The Lowdown: Best Cinematography is my favorite of the My Ballot lineups I pulled together, while Costume is unfortunately my least favorite.  That isn't meant as a slight to the winner here, Wicked, which I have made room for in tomorrow's My Ballot, but it is a sign that the costume work here wasn't as great as it could've been (I would've loved us to maybe stray a bit more from the pink-and-green motif, which is why one of my favorite costumes last year was Michelle Yeoh's celestial lilac-colored gown...but this is still great & Wicked's worthiest tech nomination).  Conclave's repeated costumes and twists on the cardinal outfit are a worthy runner-up, and lovingly-detailed.

Film Editing

1. The Brutalist

2. Conclave

3. Anora

4. Wicked

5. Emilia Perez

The Lowdown: The invisible art, film editing for me came down to the quick plot-pacing of Conclave, and then the avant garde approach of The Brutalist.  Of the two, I was most smitten with the sheer scale & confidence of The Brutalist, a movie that I liked better, and while I will quibble with the ending, I don't think you can blame that even a little bit on editing, as even in the worst scenes I was struck by how it kept pulling the viewers into the movie, cavernous in its approach.  The nomination for Wicked, given that it's only half a movie, feels odd & maybe the most confounding (and coattails-driven) citation in 2024.

Makeup & Hairstyling

1. The Substance

2. Wicked

3. A Different Man

4. Nosferatu

5. Emilia Perez

The Lowdown: Horror so rarely gets into this category (which is odd because An American Werewolf in London was the first film to win the statue), and given how quintessential makeup is to the success of the genre, it's kind of exciting to see its return (the last horror film to be cited was 2010's The Wolf Man).  But it's more exciting to be able to give it the crown because it's genuinely good.  Whatever issues I had with The Substance, the makeup wasn't one of them, giving us the ruthless destruction of poor Demi Moore's Elizabeth Sparkle, which is more impressive than the "borrowing from past experience" work in Wicked or the drawing a real-life comparison in A Different Man, which take the runners-up positions.

Production Design

1. The Brutalist

2. Dune: Part Two

3. Conclave

4. Nosferatu

5. Wicked

The Lowdown: In my opinion the best lineup that Oscar pulled together in 2024, none of these are stinkers, and while I won't copy this list verbatim to my My Ballot tomorrow, every one of these feels like an appropriate Oscar nominee.  I am not immune to the Oscar crutch of honoring a movie because it's about a specific production aspect, and indeed, the gorgeous work in The Brutalist (inexplicably on a $10 million budget) is hard to deny.  Dune: Part Two does a great job of expanding this world, and I was in awe of the (also weirdly inexpensive) palatial estates of Conclave, but I have to hand this one to the team from The Brutalist.

Visual Effects

1. Dune: Part Two

2. Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes

3. Better Man

4. Alien: Romulus

5. Wicked

The Lowdown: I grade these on a 5-star system, and I generally dock a star whenever a lead performance is in supporting or an end credits song with no presence otherwise in the movie is up, so as to even the playing field without sacrificing the nominee's chances entirely.  I think I will start to do that for movies that use dead actors without their permission (I don't care if the estate said yes...I still think it's morally repugnant).  Much of Alien: Romulus is gorgeous, and it would be higher-ranked (possibly in My Ballot territory) if they hadn't used Ian Holm the way they did (both uncanny valley and using a dead man in this way is gross).  Certainly above Better Man, which tried to cover its VFX budget with dark cinematography.  The Top 2 are indisputable-two of the most spectacular franchises around living up to their reputations once again.

No Globe? No SAG? No Problem!

This past week we saw not only the Golden Globe winners announced, but also the SAG nominations.  That means that we are able to do one of our annual series on the blog, a look at the acting nominees most likely to get nominated for an Oscar despite not having a nomination for either of these two major precursors.  Every year since 2006 (a year that was unusual mostly because of the wide spread of nominations shared by the Globes & SAG Awards for Supporting Actor, making it harder to pick something that hadn't already been selected) at least one nominee for the Oscars was not highlighted by either the HFPA or SAG-AFTRA, and becomes the "shock" of the morning.  At this point in the season, predicting the Oscars is something of a slog because so much is "decided" so trying to guess who will be this nominee becomes quite fun.  Here are the people from the past ten years who fit this bill:

2021: Penelope Cruz, Jesse Plemons, JK Simmons, Judi Dench, & Jessie Buckley

2020: Paul Raci & LaKeith Stanfield

2019: Florence Pugh

2018: Marina de Tavira & Yalitza Aparicio

2017: Lesley Manville

2016: Michael Shannon

2015: Charlotte Rampling, Tom Hardy, & Mark Ruffalo

2014: Bradley Cooper, Marion Cotillard, & Laura Dern

2013: Jonah Hill

2012: Quvenzhane Wallis, Emmanuelle Riva, & Jacki Weaver

Usually the types of nominees that get in under this designation fall into one of two categories.  First, and most often, it's people who sneak in because their film is either already being watched for Best Picture or another acting race.  Last year the former fit people like Jesse Plemons & Judi Dench, and the latter fit nominees like JK Simmons & Jessie Buckley.  In fact, in the past ten years only two of the nominees (Penelope Cruz & Charlotte Rampling) got in on their own-if you're calling this you're thinking of actors, likely relatively well-known (i.e. former nominees or noted character actors) who are in major films that for some reason haven't gotten much love yet this year.

Rampling & Cruz fit into this conversation in a different way.  Sometimes, an actor can sneak in solely based on their big name.  These performances tend to favor former nominees or winners (like Cruz), or people considered to be acting titans giving the performance of their lifetimes (like Rampling).  The gut instinct each year is to lean into this one because it's sexier, but it's much harder to pull off.

I will say, before we begin, that I'm honestly a little bit leery about this trend this year.  The Best Actress field is wide-open, but the Globes pretty much got them all save for Danielle Deadwyler, who was cited by SAG.  Arguably Best Actor is the category with the biggest opportunity to surprise, but while that fifth slot is wide open, there's a few Globe/SAG-blessed names (specifically Hugh Jackman, Jeremy Pope, & Diego Calva) who could get the nomination if Oscar is feeling less creative as much of the other contenders are not in genres that Oscar goes for, or are in films that aren't otherwise on his radar.  All that being said, the odds are with me that there will be at least one new name, but I am much more curious than most years over whom it might be.

Honorable Mention: There's a few honorable mentions that I'd like to throw out before we get to the main list.  Jennifer Lawrence & Brian Tyree Henry have solid reviews in Causeway, and Lawrence is obviously famous enough to get in on her own, but it's a tough sit and Apple doesn't seem that interested in promoting it this year.  Daniel Craig's work in Glass Onion will be seen by a lot of people, but I wonder if it might be too silly for him, even though it's starting to become a bit eyebrow-raising that the most successful Bond since Sean Connery has never gotten an Oscar nomination.  Gabriel LaBelle is likely too young to make Best Actor (he'd be the youngest person to be nominated since Mickey Rooney in 1939), but he's leading a Best Picture frontrunner (The Fabelmans) so you can't dismiss him entirely.  Nina Hoss (Tar) & Woody Harrelson (Triangle of Sadness) have subdued roles in Best Picture contenders, while Tobey Maguire goes over-the-top but very late in Babylon.  None of these names would surprise me, but I feel like they'd need more movement to make the cut at this point.

10. Andrea Riseborough (To Leslie)

For Her: I initially had Lawrence here given the potential "comeback" narrative of her getting a nomination, but I switched to Riseborough for a film that you likely hadn't heard of 72 hours ago.  Riseborough has had a groundswell of Academy members singing her praises in a way I've never seen before.  It's common for a high-profile Academy member to personally vouch for a less-famous performer (Julia Roberts did this to help get Javier Bardem nominated for Biutiful), but Riseborough has had a groundswell of support from everyone from Gwyneth Paltrow to Kate Winslet to Sarah Paulson.  Whether or not it works, it's impressive & has too many likely voters supporting her to totally ignore it.

Against Her: Riseborough violates pretty much every rule I stated above.  She's in a film that was barely released, she's not particularly famous (not in the way Penelope Cruz, nor in the way that even Charlotte Rampling is), and is a noted character actor.  She's worked with a lot of Academy members (probably why she's getting the push), but ahead of people like Ana de Armas, Viola Davis, & Danielle Deadwyler (the names she'd need to displace), with major studio pushes?  I think this is more of a curiosity campaign than one that will see her nominated.

9. Tom Hanks (A Man Called Otto)

For Him: Hanks is late-breaking in a movie that's becoming something of a sleeper hit against the odds. Older Academy members will like this film, about a curmudgeonly man who changes his ways by meeting people from different walks of life (the original was nominated for Oscars as well), and he's a beloved movie star.  It also is worth noting that with Bill Nighy, Brendan Fraser, Colin Farrell, & Austin Butler the likeliest nominees for Best Actor, that only leaves room for one former nominee to be cited (an all first-time nominee Best Actor race hasn't happened since 1934).

Against Him: While he's much more famous than Riseborough, Hanks would still be the only major nomination contender for A Man Called Otto.  I wonder if it might've broken just a little too late to catch the buzz that's happening from an increasingly curious public.  I heard a lot of people saying "I'm going to see it" this weekend, rather than having already seen it because it has been doing a slower rollout.  I wonder if a swifter rollout would've been the best play for Hanks, an actor who is definitely an Oscar favorite but who has repeatedly been passed over (Apollo 13, Captain Phillips, Bridge of Spies) just as often as he's made it.

8. Edward Norton (Glass Onion)

For Him: Norton gets a major, showy roll in a film that I think is an outside threat for Best Picture, and is certainly a movie most Academy members have seen (given it was a pop culture hit all over Christmas break).  Norton is a three-time nominee who has never won an Oscar, and if people are putting Glass Onion on their ballots (and I would assume they are given the response), it's not a stretch to assume they'd go with an actor they've liked in the past.

Against Him: Just how strong is Glass Onion?  The miss at SAG Ensemble, as well as their snub of Janelle Monae, has me wondering if people are taking this film seriously enough to be considered a true Oscar contender, or if this is just popcorn fare that will have to settle for a writing nomination just like its predecessor.

7. Jean Smart (Babylon)

For Her: Smart is pretty much the textbook definition of a Jesse Plemons-style nomination.  A woman that has a key role in a film that is in play for Best Picture, and she's in the middle of a career peak.  Her roles in Hacks and Mare of Easttown got her mountains of nominations for television, and she steals scenes in this movie.  She also has a killer monologue late in the movie that sums up Hollywood in one gigantic, moving nutshell...it's the sort of thing that, if they like Babylon, they could easily cite, particularly given how wide open the Supporting Actress field feels right now.

Against Her: Do they like Babylon?  Babylon, which until it actually opens was not just a major threat for nominations, but could've won Best Picture, bombed so spectacularly at the box office it's hard to tell where the Academy goes with this.  Sometimes Oscar doesn't give a crap about box office, and it is a good movie (that feels up their wheelhouse).  But will they simply vote for the actors that are obvious contenders (Robbie & Pitt) or could they get creative and cite someone like Smart?  It's hard to tell, which is why an otherwise surefire contender isn't in the Top 5.

5 & 6. Claire Foy & Jessie Buckley (Women Talking)

For Them: I'm combining these two for obvious reasons.  The big reason why they both could contend as they are giving performances very much up Oscar's alley.  Both actresses are in Oscar's sweet spot right now (Buckley was just nominated last year, Foy has been making a name for herself as a serious thespian by launching The Crown, a show that screams "older Academy members love me"), and both have the sorts of impassioned, difficult roles that Oscar loves.  The SAG nomination for Best Cast means that Women Talking still has a clear path to a Best Picture nomination, and in an actors' film, it feels weird they wouldn't cite, well, the actors.

Against Them: But if they like them, why aren't they getting votes?  Particularly with SAG, how did it make it for Best Cast but didn't get Foy or Buckley into the race?  I suspect what's happening is that voters are only picking one of them in a packed Supporting Actress field, and they're drowning out their support-each actress has a showy role, and it's hard to tell even between the two of them which is better-how do you decide that while trying to decide between 10-12 other names?  It's possible they are too even to get one of them in, and Women Talking isn't a big enough deal to get them both cited.

4. Tom Hanks (Elvis)

For Him: Hanks, as I said above, is an Academy magnet (two wins & 6 nominations through the years).  Elvis is a movie that the Academy (and the public) adored, and he has a near co-lead role as Colonel Tom Parker in this movie, playing the narrator atop Austin Butler's Elvis.  If they are big fans of the film, it's hard not to think that Hanks won't sneak onto at least some ballots, and in a year bereft of a lot of big biopics & prosthetic transformations (both things Oscar loves), Hanks would give them both in a tidy package.

Against Him: The reviews.  Jared Leto last year had an obvious path to a nomination for House of Gucci, but he didn't get it, and it was largely based off of people basically turning his performance into a joke that was too embarrassing for the Academy to get.  This is not good acting, and while that hasn't stopped Oscar before (Rami Malek, cough cough), coming from Hanks, someone who doesn't need this citation, it's hard to see a reason to give him a nomination that clearly will age poorly.

3. Judd Hirsch (The Fabelmans)

For Him: Hirsch spent much of the year in comeback mode.  The actor, who hasn't been nominated for an Oscar since 1980, got raves in early screenings of The Fabelmans, and again...this is the sort of thing that sneaks in last minute (not just with someone like Jesse Plemons, but think of someone like Alan Alda in The Aviator a few years back).  A former nominee who gets a key part in a Best Picture frontrunner...that's a recipe for success.  In many ways he reminds me of Judi Dench last year-someone who made sense all year but no precursor went for...until Oscar did.

Against Him: It's a short performance-Hirsch is barely in the movie, only taking up maybe 8-10 minutes of screen-time, and playing relatively little impact on the story at-hand.  Perhaps more of a problem is internal competition-it's clear that Paul Dano (an actor who is destined for an Oscar nomination at some point) is in the conversation after his SAG nomination.  It might be easier for Academy members to go there with a much larger part.

2. Paul Mescal (Aftersun)

For Him: Mescal is an up-and-coming actor that I think is sure to be nominated for an Oscar at some point.  His work in Aftersun, coming on the heels of his revolutionary performance in Normal People, has critics crying "best performance of the year" and it's a weak field.  I've made this analogy a few times this year, but in many ways the competition looks a lot like 2006, when there were four nominees set-in-stone but the fifth slot felt like it'd be a total free-for-all with atypical performances like Daniel Craig in Casino Royale and Sacha Baron Cohen in Borat threatening to upend Oscar's sensibilities.  In the end, they went for Ryan Gosling for a small movie that looked a lot more reputable, and was an endorsement of an actor they'd nominate again in the coming years.

Against Him: For starters, Gosling had a major precursor (a SAG nomination) headed into Oscar morning.  Mescal, without that, is a new face in a film that won't be cited anywhere else.  That's a tough go, particularly given he'd also be a the fifth first-time nominee in a category that loves to repeat nominees.  And against proven movie stars like Hugh Jackman, Tom Hanks, & our #1 option here...it's a tall order that feels a bit like online critics predicting someone they know, forgetting that industry types don't know every fresh new name without some help.

1. Tom Cruise (Top Gun: Maverick) 

For Him: That leaves us with Tom Cruise.  Cruise is in a surefire Best Picture nominee, he's a former nominee (and three-time loser), and everyone in the world knows his name.  This is also clearly something that means a lot to Cruise, who hasn't really been in the Oscar conversation since at least 2008, if not 1999.  I'm personally surprised he couldn't get a nomination for the Globes, but he did make it for the Critics Choice Awards, and if this film is looking like it could be a Best Picture winner (and that DGA nomination sure is a sign that it's in the running), it's hard to imagine they'd skip Cruise (even if he's a producer and will get an Oscar speech regardless).

Against Him: This is completely against-type for the Oscars.  I know we're looking at a year where Angela Bassett might win for a comic book movie (I will predict her, but part of me thinks she'll be the shock snub of Oscar morning next week), but Tom Cruise for playing Maverick?  For an Oscar nomination?  They have nominated action movie performances before, but it's rare, and more often, even when those films get nominated for Best Picture (like, say, Mad Max: Fury Road) it's more of a tech victory than an acting one.  This would stand out as a unique nomination if it happened.

OVP: Frida (2002)

Film: Frida (2002)

Stars: Salma Hayek, Alfred Molina, Geoffrey Rush, Mia Maestro, Ashley Judd, Antonio Banderas, Edward Norton, Diego Luna

Director: Julie Taymor

Oscar History: 6 nominations/2 wins (Best Actress-Salma Hayek, Art Direction, Costume Design, Makeup*, Original Score*, Original Song-"Burn It Blue")

Snap Judgment Ranking: 2/5 stars

In celebration of my brother's birthday today, we are doing not one Best Actress (his favorite category) review, but two!  This morning we talked about Greta Garbo's legendary turn in Camille, but this afternoon we're going to go with a more modern take.  My brother has seen pretty much every nominee for Best Actress since 1960, and his approach to the category has been reverse chronology, so I'm going to honor his strategy by picking the most recent film that I have not seen cited for the Best Actress field, which would be Frida.  In 2002, the Best Actress category was very uniform-the same five women kept showing up at virtually every precursor & predictions list.  The strange thing about this was that while there were several newcomers (including today's nominee, Salma Hayek, who in 2002 was best-known as Matthew Perry's love interest in Fools Rush In rather than the multi-hyphenate superstar she is today), this meant that Oscar was snubbing Meryl Streep, the reigning grand dame of this category.  This is the only time that Streep has had a lead role in a Best Picture nominee (The Hours) that she wasn't nominated for, despite her being superb in the film and having three of her costars be cited for it (so clearly the acting branch was watching the movie).  I was curious in coming into Frida what it was about Hayek's work here to mark one of the only disruptions the acting categories have had in the past 40 years in bucking Streep for a film that Academy loved.

(Real Life Doesn't Have Spoiler Alerts) The movie takes a look at the life of Frida Kahlo (Hayek), an artist who was not celebrated in her time & more so really just became famous starting in the 1970's (a much swifter path to painting icon than you'd assume), and while spreading across her whole life, largely focusing on her relationship with painter Diego Rivera (Molina), who was far better known during his lifetime as an artist of renown.  The movie looks at their marriages (not properly delineating exactly that there were two), Rivera's adultery, briefly Kahlo's bisexuality, and Frida's struggle to find her own voice through her work when everyone around her is focusing on Rivera.

Frida is hard to judge based on some of the stories surrounding its production.  Hayek was reportedly repeatedly harassed by producer Harvey Weinstein, who according to a recent piece she did in the New York Times, during production constantly sexually harassed her & pressured her for sex, and when she declined, he threw up huge roadblocks to stall the production, the biggest of which was getting four name-brand stars (Rush, Judd, Banderas, & Norton) to play small parts in the movie to give it more marketability.  Hayek achieved this, and it's impossible not to respect the film for existing under those conditions.

But as it is, it's not impressive.  Hayek's performance is middling-she doesn't bring a lot of dimensionality into her work as Frida Kahlo, with us always seeing her simply as a connection to Diego Rivera's work, but rarely as a woman of her own right.  This feels like a simplification of a woman who would not only become a prominent painter (admittedly in death), but celebrated as a global icon.  It's a paint-by-numbers biopic, even with Taymor adding her own flare to the conversation, and something that I felt less than impressed by as it went on.  The film's other nominations all feel cheap as well.  The Oscar-winning score is definitely prominent, but it frequently distracts from the story & becomes its own character, and the costumes & art directions, while borrowing from Kahlo's paintings, don't jaw-drop in the way that later attempts to do this in Loving Vincent and Mr. Turner would do.  It's a neat trick (especially with the art direction), but it's not consistent enough for us to really get into it, and the rest of the work feels too much like a film set, not enough authenticity like it's actually existing onscreen.  The Makeup work is really just the eyebrow (which, while iconic, doesn't make up for the fact that Hayek is dying the way that a heroine in the 1930's would be dying onscreen-a little bit of powdered makeup, but still unabashedly glamorous).  The only nomination I can kind of get onboard with is "Burn it Blue"-it's not a grand song, but it is catchy & it fits like a glove over the film...though it is sadly not one of the many musical moments of the piece, but instead just something they slapped onto the end credits.

OVP: Isle of Dogs (2018)

Film: Isle of Dogs (2018)
Stars: Bryan Cranston, Koyu Rankin, Edward Norton, Bob Balaban, Bill Murray, Jeff Goldblum, Kunichi Nomura, Greta Gerwig, Frances McDormand, Scarlett Johansson, Harvey Keitel, F. Murray Abraham, Tilda Swinton, Liev Schreiber
Director: Wes Anderson
Oscar History: 2 nominations (Best Animated Feature Film, Score)
Snap Judgment Ranking: 3/5 stars

The films of Wes Anderson are an odd conundrum for me.  Usually, when it comes to a deeply-stylized director, an auteur, if you will, I have strong opinions.  They might be good, almost "stan-nish" (Malick, Scorsese, Bergman), or they might be loathed (Inarritu, Russell, McKay).  But Wes Anderson I am almost always ambivalent toward, despite the fact that his films are very specific, so you would think they would recall some sort of reaction from me, either for the good or the bad.  There are movies of his that I like, there are others of his that I disliked, but I've never felt absurdly strongly one way or the other with Anderson.  He just sort of is this weird tangent I sit through at the movie theater.  When he made Isle of Dogs I was smart enough to know that he'd get another Animated Feature nomination so I caught the film before the nominations announcement (it seems likely that he'll eventually win his Oscar in this category, but unlike another stylized director, George Miller, he's worked here long enough for this not to seem strange), but once again I leave the film with a sense of "ehh" neither particularly damning of it but not overwhelmed either.

(Spoilers Ahead) The film's plot is, admittedly ridiculous (though a lot of great movies have ridiculous plots, so don't assume this is an insult).  The mayor of Megasaki (Nomura) in Japan has banished all of the dogs of his city to an island made of trash in the middle of the sea, officially under the pretense that he's trying to rid the city of the animals in hopes of preventing "canine influenza" from spreading to his citizens, but really it's part of a bizarre 1000-year-old vendetta to destroy all of the dogs in Japan.  The mayor's nephew Atari (Rankin) goes to trash island trying to find his dog Spots (Schreiber).  He is led in this quest by Chief (Cranston), whom we learn to be Spots's brother, who hates humans but slowly warms to Atari, and takes on the role as his protector.  They find him while being chased by a series of robot dogs, and eventually we discover that Spots has moved on from Atari, raising his family with a female dog, and makes Chief officially the child's protector.  Together, along with a student reporter named Tracy (Gerwig), they foil the mayor's plan, and eventually Atari becomes the mayor with Tracy dating him, and Chief becomes his protector, with his enigmatic girlfriend Nutmeg (Johansson) by his side.

The movie is beautiful, let's just say that first.  The films of Wes Anderson have a distinctive palette, but here he outdoes himself with mountains of garbage, a gorgeous city (that is clearly meant to be inspired by Tokyo) that Megasaki rules, and a series of distinct but specific dogs.  There's something to be said for the way that he uses the personalities of the dogs to match their voices in a way that works but isn't too wink-y, and some of the details in the movie are catchy.  If you look closely enough at the credits, you'll find that Anjelica Huston is credited as "mute poodle" a character that's in the film but doesn't actually talk, so there's literally no reason for her to be credited other than an in-joke between two old friends.  Perhaps the best such trick is casting Yoko Ono (yes the Yoko Ono) as an Assistant Scientist...named Yoko Ono.

But the movie is (and I know his defenders hate when people say this about him) "too twee" for me.  It has too many characters to really connect with any of them, and it borders that line between honoring and exploiting a culture that's not your own (Anderson is from Houston), with Anderson casting Japanese actors to play the Japanese characters...and then making all of their dogs be played by white actors.  The film is inventive, frequently to a fault, but I don't want to tear down inventive so I'm going with 3 stars because it's technically "good," but I left considerably under-impressed.  This isn't even Anderson stretching like he did with Grand Budapest or finding a new place to test his skills like Mr. Fox-it's just kind of another movie, one similar and borrowing heavily from what he's done before without anything new to say.

Oscar's Long-Suffering Gentlemen

As you may have guessed due to the massive increase in articles on this blog in the past two weeks, I'm in a bit of a house-cleaning mode for the blog, getting all of the articles I meant to write in 2018 but never had time to, out the door for your enjoyment before we dive into some of the new series/articles of 2019.  While doing so, I was looking through my drafts folder and realized that I owe you a sequel to an article about Oscar bridesmaids that I wrote in December.  There I took a look at the living actresses who have been nominated 3+ times but never won a competitive Academy Award.  At the time, it seemed possible that both Glenn Close & Amy Adams could be removed from such a list, but instead they just moved further into the front, both still waiting for an Oscar that might never come (but don't tell them that).

Today we're going to look at the 12 men who are living and don't have an Oscar, but have lost at least three times.  Despite the focus on Close & Adams, there are actually three men on this list who moved up thanks to this past year's ceremony, and we actually had a tragic change in this list from what it would have been had I finished it in December, as the man who would have been our #1, Albert Finney, passed away last month.  Since I didn't have time to write him an obituary at the time, consider this a bit of a memorial post to the fine actor.

Finney was very rare when he died.  I wrote in my December article that only 11 women have died with 3+ Oscar nominations and never winning a competitive one, but for men it's nearly as rare, with 13 such men who have died without a competitive Oscar.  This list includes such icons as Mickey Rooney, Peter O'Toole, and Charles Boyer, all of whom won Honorary Oscars, as well as noted character actors such as Clifton Webb and Charles Bickford.  Below you will find an additional dozen that are waiting for that competitive Oscar-speculate in the comments which ones you think have the best shot at actually taking a trophy home before their final curtain call.

Honorable Mention: Warren Beatty, Matt Damon, and Brad Pitt have 3+ acting nominations without ever taking a trophy for their thespian abilities (and are still with us), but they all have competitive Oscars of their own.  Beatty won Best Director for 1981's Reds, Pitt won Best Picture in 2013 for 12 Years a Slave, and Damon won Best Original Screenplay for 1997's Good Will Hunting.  As a result, I kept them off of the list even though technically they'd qualify.

Note: These are ranked by how many nominations an actress made, then by who got their most recent nomination the latest, and then by who got their first nomination first.

12. Viggo Mortensen

Nominations: Eastern Promises (Actor in 2007), Captain Fantastic (Actor in 2016), & Green Book (Actor in 2018)
He Lost to: Daniel Day-Lewis, Casey Affleck, & Rami Malek
Closest to the Win: It would have been 2018 had awards bodies not A) fallen weirdly in love with Rami Malek in Bohemian Rhapsody and B) Green Book hadn't gotten a significant amount of flack for its treatment of black characters, though that latter hardly stopped it in the Best Picture & Screenplay categories so maybe it was just the former.  You could make an argument that Mortensen may have been a more palatable choice than, say, Christian Bale had Malek not been on a missile trajectory to winning his Oscar.
Well, He Still Won...: Mortensen hasn't been very lucky with awards bodies.  About the most notable trophy he's picked up would be for Best SAG Ensemble for The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King, but he's never won a significant award for his solo acting.
Is This Happening Someday?: I don't know.  Aside from Green Book, Mortensen's past nominations were genuine surprises, and ones that had no chance of actually winning.  If he continues to make populist films like Green Book this could theoretically happen, but he's not the type of actor who seems comfortable with campaigning, and as a result I'd wager he won't take this, unless he gets the right biopic.

11. Woody Harrelson

Nominations: The People vs. Larry Flynt (Actor in 1996), The Messenger (Supporting Actor in 2009), and Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (Supporting Actor in 2017)
He Lost to: Geoffrey Rush, Christoph Waltz, & Sam Rockwell
Closest to the Win: The Messenger?  1996 he was in fourth or fifth place, and Three Billboards was a near-miss for a nomination, so The Messenger you could quite plausibly state that he was second place, though a distant second place to Waltz.
Well, He Still Won...: Harrelson has never won a major trophy for film, but he did take an Emmy for his time in Cheers.
Is This Happening Someday?: I think so.  Harrelson is the sort of actor who demands respect at this point, and appears in prestige films regularly (he works regularly, period).  Give him the right supporting part in a film, and it feels like he'd be able to sneak in as a career-capper sort of trophy.

10. Mark Ruffalo

Nominations: The Kids are All Right (Supporting Actor in 2010), Foxcatcher (Supporting Actor in 2013), & Spotlight (Supporting Actor in 2014)
He Lost to: Christian Bale, JK Simmons, & Mark Rylance
Closest to the Win: None of these movies.  I honestly can't even wager-he was at least in third for all of them, perhaps no higher than fourth.  Ruffalo's nominations are weird because all of these felt like citations you could predict, but also are for work that was never going to come close to an actual win.
Well, He Still Won...: Ruffalo took the Emmy for Best TV Movie for his work as a producer on The Normal Heart but he hasn't picked up a major trophy yet for acting.
Is This Happening Someday?: Yes, it is.  Ruffalo just turned fifty, is well-liked (all of his costars seem to adore him), and now that he's not under contractual obligation to Marvel, he's got more time to make arthouse films, which feels like where he's at home.  He just needs to get in on a Best Picture nominee, and he could win...I honestly think he's famous enough he could win lead.

9. Edward Norton

Nominations: Primal Fear (Supporting Actor in 1996), American History X (Actor in 1998), & Birdman (Supporting Actor in 2014)
He Lost to: Cuba Gooding, Jr., Roberto Benigni, & JK Simmons
Closest to the Win: Call me crazy, but maybe 1996?  The Academy was feeling frisky that year (just ask Lauren Bacall), and he had just won a Golden Globe.  Most pundits, if you look back, thought it was a battle between Gooding and William H. Macy for Fargo, but I wonder if Norton (who also appeared in Everyone Says I Love You and The People vs. Larry Flynt) was more in the thick of the wins than people gave him credit for at the time.
Well, He Still Won...: Norton lost the Oscar to Gooding, but managed to pick up a Golden Globe in 1996 for Primal Fear.
Is This Happening Someday?: I'm going to guess no.  Norton has had a lot more pits than valleys in a career where he's never really stopped working.  I think he's the definition of an actor who starts out strong (surely everyone assumed he was the next big thing by 1999), but Birdman feels more the exception than the rule, and he's not the type that will go after the (quality) Oscar-bait projects.  They'll need to come to him.

8. Joaquin Phoenix

Nominations: Gladiator (Supporting Actor in 2000), Walk the Line (Actor in 2005), & The Master (Actor in 2012)
He Lost to: Benicio del Toro, Philip Seymour Hoffman, & Daniel Day-Lewis
Closest to the Win: None of these are close wins.  Walk the Line couldn't even get a Best Picture nomination, and that's the one that makes the most sense when you compare it to its competition (and he's at best in third behind Hoffman & Heath Ledger).
Well, He Still Won...: It always feels weird to say this, but the only major trophy that the deeply method & dark Phoenix has ever won was for the Comedy Golden Globe (for Walk the Line).
Is This Happening Someday?: I don't think so.  If anyone on this list is the modern successor to Albert Finney, it's Phoenix, who is an actor that is too good not to occasionally be nominated for awards, but also clearly hates them and I doubt the Academy would ever want to give him a microphone.

7. Nick Nolte

Nominations: The Prince of Tides (Actor in 1991), Affliction (Actor in 1998), & Warrior (Supporting Actor in 2011)
He Lost to: Anthony Hopkins, Roberto Benigni, & Christopher Plummer
Closest to the Win: You could make a sincere argument that he was the frontrunner in 1991, with tough competition from Hopkins and Warren Beatty (Hopkins victory has aged very well, to the point where we feel like it was inevitable but that was not what people thought at the time).  However, he was also in the thick of things in 1998, when James Coburn stunned for a victory in Supporting Actor, so there was clearly a lot of support for Affliction (considering how Benigni's career aged, the Academy probably wishes they had given it to Nolte).
Well, He Still Won...: Nolte nabbed the Golden Globe for his work in The Prince of Tides (hard to believe in this era of uniform awards seasons, but Nolte managed to win Drama Actor over the man who'd eventually take the Oscar)...please take note AMPAS-creativity is a good thing.
Is This Happening Someday?: No.  Nolte's shot at ever winning this Oscar died the day that infamous mugshot was taken.  He's nearly 80 years old, and he wouldn't be an awful choice for an Honorary Oscar if it would occur to anyone, but a competitive trophy ain't going to happen-the Warrior nomination was probably the closest he was ever going to get to a career honor.

6. Johnny Depp

Nominations: Pirates of the Caribbean: The Curse of the Black Pearl (Actor in 2003), Finding Neverland (Actor in 2004), & Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street (Actor in 2007)
He Lost to: Sean Penn, Jamie Foxx, & Daniel Day-Lewis
Closest to the Win: Pirates, for sure.  The 2003 Best Actor race was a genuinely close affair, with Penn, Depp, and Bill Murray all in a threeway locked race.  I remember at the time some people even speculated that it could end in a tie of sorts.  Can you imagine a year where the Globes and SAG honored three different lead performers in this era?
Well, He Still Won...: Depp is beloved by the Golden Globes (he's been nominated ten times, including multiple citations before Oscar gave him the time of day), but only won once, for Sweeney Todd (the year of the strike, so we've never seen a major Johnny Depp speech)
Is This Happening Someday?: Probably not.  Depp has become something of a pariah, a sellout on-par with Nic Cage at this point, and the abuse allegations against him will age more poorly as time goes by.  I honestly don't think he'll even get an Honorary Oscar considering how much of his once darling arthouse reputation has been drowned in a series of big-budget schlock.

5. Tom Cruise

Nominations: Born on the Fourth of July (Actor in 1989), Jerry Maguire (Actor in 1996), & Magnolia (Supporting Actor in 1999)
He Lost to: Daniel Day-Lewis, Geoffrey Rush, & Michael Caine
Closest to the Win: Cruise has genuinely been close to winning all three times he's been nominated.  Day-Lewis won in 1989 because Cruise was too young and too new to prestige, Jerry Maguire was a loss because Cruise, like his idol Paul Newman, probably was still too rich & famous to need an Oscar to complete the ensemble, and Magnolia would have happened had Miramax not been shoving caviar down the entire Academy's throat (also, everyone's worked with Mike Caine, and seems to love him, so him being thirsty for the thing probably helped).
Well, He Still Won...: Proving you learn something new every time you research an article, Cruise won the Golden Globe every single time he was nominated for the Oscar for the same film.  Oscar just never bit compared to the starstruck HFPA.
Is This Happening Someday?: I can't tell.  Cruise is still famous enough that he could make this work if he really wanted to, and I think (unlike Depp) he'd be forgiven his baggage.  I just don't think he wants to make the types of pictures that would allow him into an awards season, and honestly-can he still pull off such a character?  He hasn't done something like Magnolia or even Jerry Maguire in so long I honestly don't know if he still can, well, act.  An Honorary Oscar could be in the cards though, especially if they set precedence with Harrison Ford or Sly Stallone.  A lot of Academy members paid their mortgages thanks to Cruise's star power.

4. Kirk Douglas

Nominations: Champion (Actor in 1949), The Bad and the Beautiful (Actor in 1952), & Lust for Life (Actor in 1956)
He Lost to: Broderick Crawford, Gary Cooper, & Yul Brynner
Closest to the Win: At the time, most people assumed that Kirk Douglas, then one of the biggest stars in Hollywood, was a shoo-in for a trophy for Lust for Life.  The Academy, though, seemed to like Oscar-lookalike Yul Brynner more in the crowd-pleasing The King & I and so Douglas went empty-handed.  One has to assume if they had known at the time that he'd never get another nomination that he might have won, but who knows what the Academy would do, even with hindsight.
Well, He Still Won...: Douglas deservedly won the Honorary Award at the 1995 Oscars, back when they still broadcast the Honorary winners at the ceremony, so the world was treated to his emotional tribute to his son.  In addition to a slew of Honorary trophies (everything from the DeMille to the Kennedy Center Honors to the AFI Life Achievement Award), he picked up the Golden Globe in 1956 for Lust for Life.
Is This Happening Someday?: No, obviously not.  Douglas is retired and 102.  He got his Honorary Award, and basically every other lifetime achievement award the industry could throw at him, and he'll die a legend.  Kirk Douglas will still be one of the iconic movie stars of all time even without a competitive Oscar, which is surely better than a statue.

3. Bradley Cooper

Nominations: Silver Linings Playbook (Actor in 2012), American Hustle (Supporting Actor in 2013), American Sniper (Actor in 2014), & A Star is Born (Actor in 2018)...he also was nominated for Best Picture for American Sniper & for Picture/Adapted Screenplay for A Star is Born
He Lost to: Daniel Day-Lewis, Jared Leto, Eddie Redmayne & Rami Malek
Closest to the Win: American Sniper felt at the time like it was on the rise, and honestly I wonder if with two more weeks of gargantuan box office if Cooper could have bested Eddie Redmayne.  Also, still not sure what happened this year with the similarly-gargantuan box office for A Star is Born...though at least there Malek came with his own pile of gold.
Well, He Still Won...: Cooper has competed at the Golden Globes, BAFTA's, and Tonys in addition to the Oscars, but like Dafoe, he's never picked up a major trophy.
Is This Happening Someday?: We enter a trio of actors who have been nominated four times without a victory (with Finney's death, no living male actor has received five nominations without winning at least one of them).  Cooper arguably should be first on this list since he has more losses than anyone, but I'm only counting acting trophies.  Also, he's going to win someday unless we're witnessing a Kirk Douglas situation.  Cooper surely has the respect of the industry, and has a hunger for that trophy, which they usually award (especially in men), though he may have to be a little less pretty to finally get there.

2. Willem Dafoe

Nominations: Platoon (Supporting Actor in 1986), Shadow of the Vampire (Supporting Actor in 2000), The Florida Project (Supporting Actor in 2017), & At Eternity's Gate (Actor in 2018)
He Lost to: Michael Caine, Benicio del Toro, Sam Rockwell & Rami Malek
Closest to the Win: I would guess that last year Dafoe was in second place, and I still think it's a bummer that he didn't gain more traction for a clearly better role than Rockwell's, but he hasn't really been close for any of his other work, so I'd go with that film.
Well, He Still Won...: Dafoe has won a mountain of critics' prizes, but never picked up one of the major televised awards.
Is This Happening Someday?: I would assume not, but honestly that fourth nomination threw me a bit.  There were other more obvious contenders (John David Washington, for example) that could have easily snuck in and taken the fifth slot for Best Actor, and Dafoe doing so indicates that there's some appetite to get him an Oscar...but if there was a proper appetite, wouldn't he have won for Florida?  He works with high-profile auteurs, so if one of them gets a film with a little more traction/nominations it could happen, but it'd help if it was in the next couple of years since he's got some recent losses under his belt.

1. Ed Harris

Nominations: Apollo 13 (Supporting Actor in 1995), The Truman Show (Supporting Actor in 1998), Pollock (Actor in 2000), and The Hours (Supporting Actor in 2002)
He Lost to: Kevin Spacey, James Coburn, Russell Crowe, & Chris Cooper
Closest to the Win: Other than The Hours, Harris was close on all three of the other films.  It was down to he & Kevin Spacey in 1995.  In 1998, it was down to he and Robert Duvall (and then in a huge upset James Coburn won, proving that this "closest to the win" is very much a guessing game).  And in 2000, he was surging at the last minute enough to get his costar Marcia Gay Harden across the finish line, but he wasn't able to invade the Crowe/Hanks battle.
Well, He Still Won...: Harris grabbed Golden Globe awards for The Truman Show and Game Change (the HBO TV movie).
Is This Happening Someday?: I doubt it.  Harris still works (Westworld), but he refuses to campaign, and honestly has gotten to the point where I don't even think he'd show up to accept it (he didn't for Game Change), and unless you're Maggie Smith, you don't win if you don't show up.