Showing posts with label 2025. Show all posts
Showing posts with label 2025. Show all posts

Saturday, March 14, 2026

My 2025 Oscar Ballot

All right, it is the 98th Academy Awards tomorrow, and while I have never been able to do this before, thanks to efficient viewing (and, let's face it, seemingly less films at year-end that I have to track down...it does with each passing year feel a bit like Hollywood's output is getting smaller), I'm going to do something I've never done before: release the My Ballot Awards before the Academy Awards for that year.  If you haven't already seen it, check out the Oscar Viewing Project article I did for this year here, where I pick solely based off of Oscar's choices, but for those uninitiated, the My Ballot Awards are where I turn the tables and pick who I think should've been nominated for (and won) the awards that year.  Given that Oscar is adding a new category this year to the OVP (the Best Casting prize), I will be adding that as well, but that is the only change you'll see (also a reminder that for Animated Feature Film, I only pick three nominees & honestly think Oscar should do the same).  As a reminder for these awards, while I have seen all of the Oscar-nominated films in the narrative, feature-length categories (including Best International Feature Film, which I don't pick here but do see all five nominees), I can't see every film.  If you have a question about "why wasn't X included?" you can check to see if I've seen it yet by following me on Letterboxd here, or by sounding off in the comments (I do take recommendations).  With that said, here is our 32nd (we are one year away from being a third done with this project, and for the curious that year will be 1964 which I'm working on ardently).  Enjoy!

Editor's Note: A quick reminder that these My Ballot Awards, like the Oscar Viewing Project, are done entirely in a vacuum...I don't take into account people being overdue, an artist's personal life or politics, or if they've won before, just solely based on who was the best in that specific category.  There are times when you might put the hand on the scale for such things, but this project is not one of them.

Picture

Avatar: Fire and Ash
Black Bag
Hamnet
Jay Kelly
The Life of Chuck
The Mastermind
Materialists
One Battle After Another
The Secret Agent
Twinless

Gold: About once a decade Oscar & I match up, and if One Battle After Another wins tomorrow (which I'm predicting it will, even if I'm not certain about it), we'll have our first overlap since Moonlight in 2016.  Paul Thomas Anderson's crackling, relevant look at a dictatorial USA and the way that it treats its citizens through a frequently comic lens is the sort of film you can watch and know it will become a classic.
Silver: In second, we have Chloe Zhao (who also got second in 2020) doing her thing once more, showing the meditative search for meaning in a world that offers little (and yet, offers it aplenty if you allow it to come in).  Hamnet is a thoughtful and heartbreaking look at what we give to our children, knowing that love cannot be taken back once it's given, even if fate or cruel destiny intervene.
Bronze: If there's a movie this year that is going to eventually be a "I knew this was great before anyone else did" picture, it's Black Bag, which had critical love early this year but got not a single Oscar nomination, something you'll find I rectify for this sleek, sexy thriller many times over in the coming categories.

Director

Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another 
James Cameron, Avatar: Fire and Ash
Kleber Mendonca Filha, The Secret Agent
Steven Soderbergh, Black Bag
Chloe Zhao, Hamnet

Gold: Paul Thomas Anderson and I got off to a rocky start (I will own that I was one of those people who didn't really get into Magnolia, and Punch-Drunk Love is not a movie I reference regularly as a favorite).  But I've been kinder to him than Oscar has in the years since (he got Best Director from me in 2012, and Best Screenplay in both 2012 & 2021), and this being his magnum opus, I cannot deny him his laurels.
Silver: There is a part of me that wishes I had room for Chloe Zhao's beautiful use of nature in Hamnet.  A film that is about the stage, a place literally alien from the natural world, seems to feel such an odd place for us to connect to the quiet, but that is how her camera moves, pushing us into the sphere outside our homes.
Bronze: We're going 3/3 with the same medals for all three films, something we generally don't do (even with a voter of one), and there was part of me that debate giving this to Cameron for his gigantic expansion of the planet of Pandora.  However, I cannot deny the tension-building cosmopolitan spy ring he has crafted for Black Bag.

Actor

Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another 
Michael B. Jordan, Sinners
Paul Mescal, Hamnet
Dylan O'Brien, Twinless
Josh O'Connor, Wake Up Dead Man

Gold: Easily the best of the four acting lineups (and maybe one of the best lineups I've pulled together for Best Actor), I was torn between all three medalists, and at times felt all of them deserved the gold.  I'm going, though, with the unlikely choice of Dylan O'Brien, whose beautiful dual performance (of very different, and yet connected, twins) gives the film so much of its fire (and is the source of James Sweeney's obsession).
Silver: Leonardo DiCaprio is too big of a movie star to be positioned for a "comeback," but for an actor who has been nominated for six acting trophies so far in the My Ballot (if you want to see past contests, I have links to all of them at the bottom of this article, but know we haven't gotten to his Gilbert Grape and Titanic era quite yet), and he's giving some of his best work here as a neurotic, baked-out revolutionary who is trying to find his footing in the political chaos while also being a good parent.
Bronze: Speaking of "trying to be a good parent" we have Paul Mescal, our most consistent movie star in the 2020's (give or take his fellow nominee Josh O'Connor who could've been nominated for multiple movies this year without any shame), giving us a unique take on the Bard, one that feels appropriately selfish, lusty, and heartbroken.

Actress

Cate Blanchett, Black Bag
Jessie Buckley, Hamnet
Dakota Johnson, Materialists
Amanda Seyfried, The Testament of Ann Lee
Emma Stone, Bugonia

Gold: Mescal's romantic partner in Hamnet is our gold medalist, playing a sort of bewitched version of Anne Hathaway, one whose performance really comes to life as the film progresses.  In the final theatrical production scene of Hamnet, we see an openness to the world, which Buckley plays not just as a way for her to be able to connect to her dead son, but also to a community-at-large that shunned her.
Silver: Emma Stone has yet to get an acting gold medal from me, but lord knows she's trying, playing every part the way that Meryl Streep did in the 1980's or Jane Fonda did in the 1970's-as if it's an event.  Her terrifying embodiment of a toxic girl boss (the 5:30 PM scene will send chills down the spine of everyone who's ever worked in corporate America and had that boss), makes her the only person who can escape the preposterous nature of the film's final moments.
Bronze: I debated pretty hard between Seyfried and Blanchett for the final medal (Dakota is just happy to be here), which is hard to do given this is a very divergent pair of performances, but I ended up picking Amanda's Ann Lee.  I think what she does here is so fully-committed, not just to the unique vision of Mona Fastvold's musical, but also to the selfless egoism that it takes to believe you might be a deity.

Supporting Actor

Tom Burke, Black Bag
Benicio del Toro, One Battle After Another
Noah Jupe, Hamnet
Jack O'Connell, Sinners
Sean Penn, One Battle After Another

Gold: Sean Penn is one of those actors who is almost certainly crazy (and would've gotten fired a lot more in a different field).  He's also an actor of great talent who frequently overacts or gets cast in bizarre roles.  But damn it if he isn't selling the hell out of his racist military man in One Battle After Another, playing appropriately over-the-top a cruel embodiment not just of hate, but its close sibling stupidity.  Those "greatest actor of his generation" plaudits he got in the 2000's sometimes feel deserved with work this good.
Silver: Tom Burke suffers from me giving this to Penn, as this is the closest in my mind of the four acting prizes between Gold & Silver.  Burke's role here, as a drunk, sexed-up (but charming) louse is marvelous, the best performance in a film brimming with them, and I love the way that years of stealing scenes with such a part culminated in this.  Can't wait for the role that is going to inevitably get him on Oscar's radar.
Bronze: A comeback of sorts for Benicio del Toro, who took the My Ballot gold medal from me in 2000, and hasn't been back since.  In a very quiet, limited bit of screen-time in One Battle After Another, he leaves an intense impression of a man you know will survive even as everything else is crumbling around him.

Supporting Actress

Marisa Abela, Black Bag
Glenn Close, Wake Up Dead Man
Regina Hall, One Battle After Another 
Amy Madigan, Weapons
Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another

Gold: Giving the best performance of her career, Amy Madigan's Aunt Gladys is a spooky creation to haunt the dreams, and a turn that belongs alongside Ruth Gordon in Rosemary's Baby and Kathy Bates in Misery.  So much of the role is rounded in a cartoonishness, the garish way we look past aging women who try to show a bit of life and heap pity on them, that her big scene where she shows her plan feels all the more horrifying.  We all would fall in her wake.
Silver: You'll note that I don't have lead performances nominated in my supporting fields (Paul Mescal is where he's supposed to be), and what that opens up for us is the ability to nominate true supporting work that doesn't have a lot of screen-time, but is vital for a movie's success.  Such is the case for Regina Hall, a longtime comedic champ who aces this dramatic part, giving us a woman decades into the trenches, jaded but still nervous enough to feel fully vested.
Bronze: Teyana Taylor gets One Battle After Another its fifth & final acting medal (Chase Infiniti, for the curious, was sixth in Best Actress, so One Battle After Another nearly took up 30% of the performing nomination slots).  I loved the impression she made-Taylor's part is tricky, as she's virtually absent past the film's first hour, and needs to leave a long shadow for us to keep thinking back to how she plays a part in what's happening in the "present."  Taylor plays her so commandingly that's not a problem.

Adapted Screenplay

Hamnet
The Life of Chuck
One Battle After Another
Pillion
Wake Up Dead Man

Gold: So far every year of the 2020's the Best Picture winner has also taken a Best Screenplay gold medal, something I really hope gets disrupted (no category should have a cheat code to winning a tech category-it should always feel fluid).  But I'm picking in a vacuum, and in a vacuum the best script of 2025, filled with humor, observation, & terror, was One Battle After Another.
Silver: And this means, yet again, that Chloe Zhao must take a silver medal to Paul Thomas Anderson's gold, with Hamnet getting the second place here.  I have not read either source material, but given Hamnet in many ways feels so cinematic, almost to the point where it's too abstract to be written prose, I do wonder if Zhao's task might've been even more challenging than PTA's (though PTA is translating Thomas Pynchon so let's just call it a draw).
Bronze: And we'll end it with a bit of Stephen King, who had a banner 2025 (I nearly nominated The Long Walk here as well which (imho) is the best movie of 2025 I didn't find room for in a single category...weirdly both movies also starred Mark Hamill in very different turns).  The Life of Chuck is Mike Flanagan putting a bit of wonder alongside a solid dose of life-affirming sentimentality that I can't help but be consumed by.  The script's look at how we value our memories (and how we live in them) is so great (and that Tom Hiddleston dance number is one of the few moments this year where I was crying and smiling while watching at the same time, the best feeling a movie can provide).

Original Screenplay

Black Bag
Jay Kelly
Materialists
Sinners
Twinless

Gold: We are able to look beyond One Battle and Hamnet for a moment, and that's going to give the warped mind of James Sweeney a chance to shine.  In Twinless, we are given a tale of obsession, a friendly and sometimes sexual obsession, where Sweeney is driven mad over dual Dylan O'Brien's, an understandable feeling he turns into a harrowing thriller.
Silver: With Black Bag, we have a thriller as well, one more conventionally situated in the world of espionage, but one that is as much about the sexual dynamics (and the competitive angles) that come from marital love.  Soderbergh continues to be one of the best screenwriters for ensembles, making sure every part of this play feels rich & full.
Bronze: Longtime character actress Emily Mortimer joined Noah Baumbach in writing Jay Kelly, a movie that was totally in Oscar's wheelhouse and yet he didn't seem to care.  But I cared, and thought the way that they handled it, with a man at the crossroads of his life as he enters what he knows will be the last chapter of it.  I love the ways that it plays with age, showing that even as we get older, even with the fullest of lives, it always feels too short.

Animated Feature Film

Elio
Little Amelie, or the Character of Rain
Zootopia 2

Gold: I hate to start out any section like this, saying "this was a weak year" for a category as it feels like such a back-handed compliment to the movies being honored, but...this was a weak year for this category (not the only category I'd say that about either-Cinematography & Costume have both had better days).  Of the contenders, though, the one that spoke to me the most was the dazzling colors and thoughtful looks at grief in Elio, the best Pixar has been since at least Luca.
Silver: Another film that is weirdly centered on grief, though here it feels more at-home in a far more grown-up tale, is the Oscar-cited Little Amelie, proof that that Oscar does some good (I wasn't likely to have seen this otherwise), and I loved the ways that it shows how childhood echoes with you the remainder of your life.
Bronze: The first Zootopia movie was a delicious breath-of-fresh air, a mystery that told us a tale about racism that also was some of the best world-building I've ever seen from the Mouse House.  With that starting point, Zootopia 2 is merely just fun.  I wish it had had the guts to be a romance (given the box office numbers, I'm sure it will get there soon), but instead we just got more of a good thing.

Sound Mixing

F1
The History of Sound
One Battle After Another
Sinners
Warfare

Gold: In many ways "I Lied to You" was the scene of the year.  Sinners surely got most of its critical plaudits from this scene, and if/when it takes Sound at the Oscars tomorrow (it's in a tight race with the #2 on this list), it will be because of this scene, a jammed, ethereal look at the Black experience through music (with an impending horror movie about to take place).
Silver: Coming behind it is F1, a movie whose Sound Mixing is so compelling it could beat the most-nominated film in Oscar history.  Here it's a bit of a combination of experiences for Mixing vs. Editing, and some of that work is the way that it incorporates the score on-top of real-world sounds, but they also do a fantastic job of filming in cars so that you get that actual authentic rev & beat of the engine.
Bronze: One of the reasons I still keep these categories separate for these write-ups long after Oscar gave up on such things is that you get a movie like The History of Sound, which has almost no sound editing to speak of, but is a rich, beautiful look at music & nature.  You hear these two men falling in love, feeling each other through decades of song and the odes that bind us across communities.

Sound Editing

Avatar: Fire & Ash
F1
Nouvelle Vague
Tron: Ares
Warfare

Gold: That being said, F1 may have fine mixing, but it's a sound editors' wet dream.  The cascade of multiple cars, told across speeding raceways (oftentimes on different types of material), you are transported into this world that hundreds of millions devote their fandoms toward.  The strength of F1 isn't just in the lead performances from Pitt & Idris, but also in how it fills your aural canals so you're in the driver's seat.
Silver: Decades into Pandora, it's hard to top what we've already experienced, and yet...James Cameron knows his way around gushing water and (in something of a new twist) a land of fire.  The flame-filled battles and conflicts of Fire & Ash make it a fitting ending (even if that's not what we're getting...someone free James Cameron from this franchise please so I can get one more original idea from him before he goes), and one where the sounds are nearly equal to the visual effects.
Bronze: "War is hell" is a trope nearly as old as war films themselves, and so to say something new about it is nearly impossible.  But Warfare's take (not that it's cliche or a revelation, but instead that it's just pointless) is translated through the sounds of war, the omnipresent bullets and the surgical dicing that takes place in this picture in the most graphic scene at the picture's halfway point.

Note: Unlike the Oscars, for the modern My Ballot, I continue to keep the two Sound categories separate, rather than combine them like Oscar did since 2020.  If you want a direct comparison for the record, if I had combined them, I would've nominated: Avatar: Fire & Ash (Silver), F1 (Gold), The History of Sound, Sinners (Bronze), & Warfare.

Score

Hamnet
Jay Kelly
The Mastermind
Materialists
One Battle After Another

Gold: First a plug-we need to demand that major, wonderful film scores are available on streaming & physical music channels just as much as we do movies.  And that is more-than-true for something like The Mastermind, a movie with jazz-filled touches that will make you spend most of it wondering what 1940's legend did all of these recordings...only to realize this is somehow a 2025 creation.
Silver: That is not true for all of Hamnet, which has at its most critical moment a 20-year-old recording from Max Richter that might (in some worlds) disqualify it here.  But I do not have such qualms (I nominated Alexandre Desplat for this prize for The Tree of Life despite such reservations), and the rest of Hamnet is so good "On the Nature of Daylight" feels more like a cherry on a sundae than the main course.
Bronze: Richter, Jonny Greenwood, and Nicholas Britell feel like they are filling the backgrounds of all 2020's movies, the best of the best of this decade, and so it should surprise no one that with all three nominated, I'm going to give a second of them a medal.  In this case it's Britell, whose lush, sometimes too much (but it fits the plot so that works) score in Jay Kelly gives the film so much of its cinematic gilding.

Original Song

"Golden," KPop Demon Hunters
"I Lied to You," Sinners
"Our Love," The Ballad of Wallis Island
"Song For Henry," On Swift Horses
"Waiting on a Wish," Snow White

Gold: Hypocrisy, thy name is John.  I spend so much time complaining about how Oscar just nominates end credit songs for his films (this year, he did it three times), and here I have a quartet of songs that were performed in the movie, frequently as big musical numbers or in guiding the plot of the picture.  And yes, I'm going to still give the gold to the melodic "Song for Henry," perhaps the tune I listened to the most this year and shaped an otherwise kind of phoned-in movie in ways that made it feel far better than it actually was.
Silver: The best actual song scene of the year, though, was "I Lied to You," one of the best scenes of the year.  As a stand-alone piece of music I don't know that it feels in the same league as my personal tastes (I love the blues, typically, so this is more me going on vibes & what I like...I'm a movie guy, not a music guy) for some of the other songs, but damn if this (still solid) song doesn't work magic in Sinners.
Bronze: Do not come at me, KPop Demon Army.  I know I didn't nominate your (very average) picture for Best Animated Feature Film, but I am not incapable of enjoying the bouncy beats of your picture.  Part of me is still a little mad I couldn't put the infectiously ridiculous "Soda Pop" in as a nominee (it was in sixth), but at least the electric "Golden" will turn a lovely shade of bronze.

Art Direction

Avatar: Fire & Ash
Black Bag
F1
The Phoenician Scheme
Sinners

Gold: Art Direction means not just the buildings, but also the way that we build the sets and even the props that are happening onscreen.  I'm more inclined to celebrate this all-encompassing nature with movies like F1, meticulously giving us a world of shiny, flashy cars and curated quiet luxury that feels at once astronomical and realistic (for these people's bank accounts...not yours).
Silver: Behind it is a more conventional type of quiet luxury.  The posh office spaces, curated intellectual designs & fashions of Black Bag also give off the aura of "you can't afford this," which is character-building.  These people are sexy, smart, and dangerous (even to themselves).
Bronze: I am not someone that automatically name-checks every single Wes Anderson movie in the tech categories (though he's shown up before a few times), but when he gets it right, he really gets it right, and as you're about to see in the coming paragraphs, I was sold on the world-traveling aesthetic of The Phoenician Scheme, another in his increasingly personal string of 2020's films.

Casting

Black Bag
Hamnet
One Battle After Another
The Secret Agent
Sinners

Gold: The first year of doing this category, I feel a bit lost on how to grade this, but am going to give it a shot, kind of using the criteria of inventive casting, a solid ensemble feel, and making sure the performances match the script.  In this case, Hamnet is the top of the list.  Emily Watson's wonderful doom, two top-of-their-game leads, and the stunt casting that totally works of the two Jupe brothers playing mirror images of themselves is really well done, and a worthy inaugural gold medalist.
Silver: Behind it, though, is Sinners, a true ensemble movie where every character feels well-cast, and perhaps most crucially, doesn't necessarily rely upon known names to fill out every player in the plot.  When you have people online name-checking minor characters the way they do in major blockbusters, you're doing something right, and that's the case with Sinners, where the whole cast feels like we're in the same place.
Bronze: One Battle After Another can't get ahead of Sinners in part because it does cast big names (save for Chase Infiniti in a star-making role).  But even if the call-sheet has three Oscar winners and several prominent character actors, that doesn't mean that every part doesn't fit like a glove for these performers, and in some cases (particularly DiCaprio) it's spinning on its head their star persona.

Cinematography

Anemone
Black Bag
F1
Hamnet
Train Dreams

Gold: Sometimes movies feel like they're being made solely to have us marvel at gorgeous camerawork.  That doesn't always make for terrific filmmaking, but this category isn't Best Picture, now is it?  And Train Dreams is one of those movies, a film that looks at nature from every angle, and also quietly (I cannot believe a movie that requires you to put your phone down this much is on Netflix) gives us a changing sense of technology as we're going.
Silver: You spend all of Black Bag aware of light.  In an industry where most cinematographer's default is to have half of the screen as dark as possible to hide the CGI (looking at you, Sinners), this film has candle-glowing dinners, the natural light of a London sky, the soft humming interior lights of an office...all of this feels at once authentic and cinematic, something we should see more of on the big-screen.
Bronze: We're in our longest Terrence Malick drought this century, and it's getting to me as an ardent admirer of his work.  Not only did I shortlist Train Dreams (clearly paying homage to him), but I also have to include Hamnet (weirdly left out of this list with Oscar), a movie that uses natural lighting throughout, but also gives us a green sense of the English countryside, allowing us the same connection to it that Jessie Buckley's lead character feels throughout.

Costume

Black Bag
Kokuho
One Battle After Another
The Phoenician Scheme
Wicked: For Good

Gold: I am not afraid of contemporary design if it's done well, and this is a field where, quite frankly, you're seeing a lot of contemporary design honored.  Part of what makes Black Bag work is the quiet luxury angle.  We need to feel like these people aren't real...there's a level of authenticity in the performances, but these people are not just like you and me.  That's translated in the leather jacket and black jumpsuit Cate Blanchett wears while potentially committing treason (the jacket costs $5k if you want to try to emulate it), or in the black form-fitting turtlenecks in which Michael Fassbender instills a sense of "you'd fuck him too" vibes.
Silver: On the flip side, One Battle After Another does give us that realism.  Not only do we get Leo wearing that "retired dad" flannel night shirt & stocking cap that counters with the effortless cool of Teyana Taylor's character earlier in the film (hell, she wears the same outfit earlier in the picture and gives off totally different vibes), but we get to see that same sense of style in her daughter...even though they haven't met.  Talk about story-building through clothing.
Bronze: If you want to get into something more traditional (i.e. period or fantasy) with the third medalist, I'll give you that.  Costuming goddess Milena Canonero gives us the alabaster white nun's uniform, the impeccable suits and Scarlett Johansson's napkin-checkered shirt with sky high shorts in The Phoenician Scheme, every outfit feeling like a shorthand introduction for the audience to these characters.

Film Editing

Black Bag
Hamnet
One Battle After Another
The Secret Agent
Sinners

Gold: Balancing multiple plot lines, told decades apart, is the sort of thing that most filmmakers can't handle, and they get lost in the editing room where we stop caring about what happened before since it's not happening now.  But that's not how One Battle After Another works.  Instead, we spend it recalling, wondering how this story will be told in full, a 2.5-hour tale that doesn't once let up or make you want to look at your phone for the time.
Silver: Thrillers live-and-die in the editing room, and that's the case with Black Bag, a movie that always seems to be aware of the giant elephant in the room, whether that's a dinner party where we know a lie is about to be exposed, or something grander, like a literal ticking clock counting down if a man can trust his wife.
Bronze: Part of the genius of The Secret Agent (a great movie I really wanted to put into our stacked Best Actor field, and I'm feeling bad only got one medal in this whole article, but that's how it goes in the best year for movies since 2017) is that it is telling so many tales at once.  You have a seemingly arbitrary tale of a shark coming in at points, as well as looking back-and-forth as this story is told from the vantage of decades after-the-fact, and yet still feeling like a proper mystery.

Makeup & Hairstyling

Frankenstein
Kokuho
The Phoenician Scheme
Sinners
Weapons

Gold: The makeup effects in Kokuho are some of the best I've seen in a long time.  Usually when Oscar cites a random film out of nowhere, I roll my eyes and give it three stars because it's not that impressive...here, he outdid himself, not just giving us mountains of character-telling Kabuki makeup, but also some of the most impressively realistic aging makeup I've seen onscreen.
Silver: The Phoenician Scheme does what Wes Anderson does best-gives us a sea of the most famous actors working today, and lets them play pretend.  That shines in the way that we get a quirky business tyrant in Benicio del Toro, debonair (you can see a bit of Howard Hughes here) but still consistently ruffled, along with the gaudily over-enunciated nun played by Mia Threapleton.  It's makeup that not just tells a joke, but also looks good.
Bronze: Sometimes you get a nomination just from one creation in this field (indeed, that's true of two of these nominees), and no character this year was quite as singular as Aunt Gladys.  The way that we unfold her in three acts, a gigantic orange clown, a spooky under-the-mattress freak show, and then a stripped-down monster...it's Madigan working hand-in-hand with the makeup chair to make this woman an icon.

Visual Effects

Avatar: Fire & Ash
F1
How to Train Your Dragon
Thunderbolts
Tron: Ares

Gold: It almost feels tired to give yet another gold medal to a James Cameron movie, but if there's a less lazy way to pick the best of the cinematic VFX in a year, it didn't come in 2025.  Avatar stands so far above these with its realistic animation, body-capture tech, and gorgeously-lit cascades through land, fire, & water in Pandora, nothing else can compare.  This isn't quite in the same league as The Way of Water, but that's a bit like comparing Nadal's Grand Slam wins at Roland Garros...they're all works of art.
Silver: That said, I did really like the five films I picked here (I think this is the category I most outdid Oscar), and I'm going to remain surprised for a while that the Academy didn't see the glorious effects in Tron: Ares, filled with so much red, blue, & black cleverness in design, and didn't instantly want to put their stamp on it.
Bronze: It's always fun to chase two CGI-heavy films with a movie that (while very CGI heavy too, let's be real) also has some practical effects in the ways we handle these cars.  The combination of subtlety with the creation of some of these race tracks with the practical endurance of actual race cars in many scenes is a fitting close to honestly a terrific year for movies.

Other My Oscar Ballots: 193119481957, 1972198119992000200120022003200420052006200720082009201020112012201320142015201620172018201920202021202220232024

Sunday, March 08, 2026

2025 Oscar Viewing Project

Just in time for Oscar next weekend, I have officially seen all of the Oscar Viewing Project contenders for 2025!  For the second year in a row, I've done this before the ceremony, which feels very in-theme for how we operate.  For those that are new, the Oscar Viewing Project has me watching every single narrative, feature-length nominee at the Academy Awards (i.e. no shorts or documentaries, unless they're in the traditionally feature-length, narrative categories), and rating them in a vacuum, picking my choices based on whom Oscar selected based solely on the quality of the 3-5 nominees in front of me.  If you are truly new, this is the 32nd of the 98 Oscar ceremonies we've done this for, and you can see links at the bottom of this list for past contests.  For the first time since 2001, we have a new category that will be added, and it will be covered (Casting), and I will also be adding it to the My Ballots going forward (though not retroactively).  I have a few more screenings left to finish up the 2025 My Ballot (where I pick the nominees), including one specific animated film that's been annoyingly hard to get ahold of, but in the meantime, we will sort through Oscar.  As a reminder, here was where the domestic box office ranked in 2025:

1. Zootopia 2
2. A Minecraft Movie
3. Lilo & Stitch
4. Avatar: Fire and Ash
5. Superman
6. Wicked: For Good
7. Jurassic World: Rebirth
8. Sinners
9. The Fantastic Four: First Steps
10. How to Train Your Dragon

(Note: I will point out this is the current lineup as of the last writing.  Avatar: Fire and Ash, specifically, is still making relatively decent domestic money, though likely not enough to outearn Lilo & Stitch and move onto the medal stand)

Of these 10 films, I've seen eight of them, skipping both of the live-action animated remakes because, as a general rule, I think these are terrible.  I think it's notable, looking at this, how we have at least one truly original movie (Sinners becoming the highest-grossing totally original story since Gravity), and that the MCU truly just fell from grace here, with Thunderbolts not even crossing the $200M mark domestically and Captain America: Brave New World making $700M less than the last Captain America movie did at the box office (and only Fantastic Four making the Top 10).  Looking down the box office list, most of the unseen movies that I haven't caught yet are horror movie sequels, though The Housemaid stands out as maybe the movie I should've caught and might try to sneak in before the My Ballot (I will definitely be seeing How to Train Your Dragon given so many people loved the visual effects).

But now, it's time to go back just a few months to a time we all were getting a crush on Zohran Mamdani, watching Taylor & Travis get engaged, and seeing the first American pope.  And of course, let's remember the movies...

Picture

1. One Battle After Another
2. Hamnet
3. The Secret Agent
4. Sinners
5. Sentimental Value
6. Train Dreams
7. F1
8. Bugonia
9. Marty Supreme
10. Frankenstein

The Lowdown: This is a solid list in what was honestly a very good year for movies, maybe the best since 2021 or even 2017.  But there's no competition for Paul Thomas Anderson here-One Battle After Another is a profound, challenging picture with universally good acting and writing.  Hamnet is really special in second place, proving that Chloe Zhao is emerging as one of our most thoughtful and introspective directors, and I have a sincere enjoyment of the craftsmanship of something like The Secret Agent or Sinners, but One Battle is on another level, and as you'll see, is going to be batting really well this write-up.

Director

1. Paul Thomas Anderson (One Battle After Another)
2. Chloe Zhao (Hamnet)
3. Ryan Coogler (Sinners)
4. Joachim Trier (Sentimental Value)
5. Josh Safdie (Marty Supreme)

The Lowdown: A second showdown between Anderson & Zhao (both of whom are going to repeat when we get to the 2025 My Ballot), but I won't pretend this is a close race.  I've actually been much kinder to PTA than Oscar has (his films have plenty of My Ballot statues), but I'm glad on some level that Oscar waited for (what I hope) will be a coronation here as this will become the defining work of his career.  Also, I want to say for the record that Josh Safdie's personal troubles are not why he's in last...I just really did not like his movie.

Actor

1. Leonardo DiCaprio (One Battle After Another)
2. Michael B. Jordan (Sinners)
3. Wagner Moura (The Secret Agent)
4. Ethan Hawke (Blue Moon)
5. Timothee Chalamet (Marty Supreme)

The Lowdown: Best Actor remains the best lineup of the 2025 acting races, and I will own that none of these (not even Timmy in a movie I didn't like) is a bad performance.  In terms of a win, though, Leo's best work in years is really going to take it over Michael B. Jordan adding nuance to two different characters and Wagner Moura's steady, marked performance in The Secret Agent.  Leo's so good here-a man that even in his prime was over-his-head but in love with ideals and a woman who wouldn't stay, having to reengage with life to save the only thing he truly cares about...this is the kind of star power electricity that Leo promised when he was in his Chalamet years.

Actress

1. Jessie Buckley (Hamnet)
2. Emma Stone (Bugonia)
3. Renate Reinsve (Sentimental Value)
4. Kate Hudson (Song Sung Blue)
5. Rose Byrne (If I Had Legs I'd Kick You)

The Lowdown: I will largely skate by the elephant in the room (I love Rose Byrne, I love Kate Hudson, but these performances are not ranked incorrectly...do with that what you will), and instead focus on the real competition: Jessie Buckley's spiritual work as a mother trying to connect with a man she loves but can't understand and a boy she knows but cannot grasp, and Emma Stone's terrifying girlboss incarnate, totally grasping on to Bugonia's bizarre (and oftentimes off-kilter) wavelength.  I'm going with Buckley because I think she is able to connect more to the ending than Stone.

Supporting Actor

1. Sean Penn (One Battle After Another)
2. Benicio del Toro (One Battle After Another)
3. Stellan Skarsgard (Sentimental Value)
4. Delroy Lindo (Sinners)
5. Jacob Elordi (Frankenstein)

The Lowdown: I like #3-5 in other things (truth be told, there is no acting performance of the 20 that I truly disliked even if there are movies that were cited that I disliked, which is rare), but for me it's a competition between the two Oscar-winning acting titans in One Battle After Another.  I'm going with Penn not because he's the bigger performance, but because I think that big performances sometimes get a bad rap in modern acting (del Toro is certainly subtle), but you need them when you're playing a big character like he is, and he totally inhabits a unique type of weak toxicity that's rarely seen represented in the movies (but oftentimes on cable news).

Supporting Actress

1. Amy Madigan (Weapons)
2. Teyana Taylor (One Battle After Another)
3. Elle Fanning (Sentimental Value)
4. Wunmi Mosaku (Sinners)
5. Inga Ibsdotter Lileaas (Sentimental Value)

The Lowdown: Madigan gives one of the most unhinged supporting performances in recent years, channeling in many ways actors like Kathy Bates in Misery or Ruth Gordon in Rosemary's Baby to give us something truly terrifying (and speaking of Trump, if you think the red-haired clown terrorizing a group of children isn't an allegory for the guy that has plagued the Epstein list, watch again).  Taylor would be a really worthy winner too, and I love the imprint she made on this movie with only time in the first 40 minutes or so, but this is Madigan by the widest margin of the acting races.

Adapted Screenplay

1. One Battle After Another
2. Hamnet
3. Train Dreams
4. Bugonia
5. Frankenstein

The Lowdown: One Battle is not done with its wins yet, and takes another one for PTA.  One Battle is honestly one of the rare one of Anderson's films that is more of a director's achievement than a writing or acting one, but that doesn't mean that he doesn't have the oomph to best Hamnet, which is also a wonderful and deceptively strong screenplay (the way that it folds ideas of Shakespeare into the film, while also feeling vaguely universal).  The rest of this category I'd probably upend, and will when we get to the My Ballot.

Original Screenplay

1. Sinners
2. Sentimental Value
3. Blue Moon
4. It Was Just an Accident
5. Marty Supreme

The Lowdown: I'll be honest, the writing categories are where a relatively decent Best Picture lineup (like I said, 2025 is one of the best years for movies so far this decade) shows some chinks in the armor, as you have films like Marty Supreme & Bugonia where I actively disliked the endings and felt they took down chunks of the movie.  There is a touch of that with Sinners, so I will note that it is just barely beating out Sentimental Value (which nails its ending), but the inventive plotting and the way that it unfolds a closed door horror so well means I'm going to slightly favor the vampires over the Swedish introspection.

Animated Feature Film

1. Elio
2. Little Amelie, or the Character of Rain
3. Zootopia 2
4. Arco
5. KPop Demon Hunters

The Lowdown: In what was otherwise a strong year for cinema, I'll own that animation was terribleIt's not even a case where we have a bunch of better films sitting around-KPop is good when the music is playing and Zootopia is good if you don't constantly compare it to the original and Arco is good if you pretend the melancholy ending was at all earned by the rest of the picture...but overall this is not an impressive list.  If I have to pick a winner, it'd be Elio, a somewhat forgettable Pixar movie that nonetheless has gorgeous animation, beautiful music, and some really strong emotional plotting, but would stand out more if Pixar hadn't been using the same plot for every non-Toy Story film since Cars 3).

International Feature Film

1. The Secret Agent (Brazil)
2. Sentimental Value (Norway)
3. It Was Just an Accident (France)
4. Sirat (Spain)
5. The Voice of Hind Rajab (Tunisia)

The Lowdown: The movies of this category used to, on very rare occasion, get nominations in other fields, but this year we have four of them nominated elsewhere and two nominated for Best Picture.  Even with this category, the Academy is becoming entirely focused on the Best Picture field.  Thankfully that's where this should be, as those are the two best movies of the bunch, with weirdly similar plots (both movies are essentially about how you can never know your parents).  I prefer The Secret Agent, a subtler movie with a more sprawling historical look behind it (and the better central performance), but honestly either one here is a winner.

Score

1. Hamnet
2. One Battle After Another
3. Sinners
4. Bugonia
5. Frankenstein

The Lowdown: I am a total sucker for Max Richter, whose soft melodies and gorgeous, romantic use of strings and swelling orchestras is a callback to the man I frequently confuse him with (Max Steiner).  Hamnet earned him his first Academy Award nomination, and I struggle to find a reason not to give him this (the OVP is in a vacuum, as a reminder, so I'm not trying to make up for lost time-just noting that Richter has gotten multiple My Ballot nods at this point, and will get another one in 2025 from me when we get there later this month).  One Battle After Another, by another favorite of mine (Jonny Greenwood) is really aces as well, even if it isn't quite as distinctive as we're used to from Greenwood's collaborations with Paul Thomas Anderson.

Original Song

1. "I Lied to You," Sinners
2. "Golden," KPop Demon Hunters
3. "Sweet Dreams of Joy," Viva Verdi!
4. "Train Dreams," Train Dreams
5. "Dear Me," Diane Warren: Relentless

The Lowdown: I sometimes struggle with how to grade this category, because I do feel that it should not just be about the quality of the song, but also about how it is incorporated into the movie.  "Golden" is an ear worm that I have not stopped listening to since it came out (there's a reason this became a genuine pop hit), but the "I Lied to You" sequence in Sinners is easily one of the best scenes of the year, and in my opinion deserves this statue even if "Golden" might be a better piece of music outside the realm of the movie.  Of the three also-rans (i.e. the songs you don't know), "Sweet Dreams of Joy" is much better than you'd expect, and sadly "Dear Me" is exactly what you'd expect (we really should've just given Diane Warren that Oscar for Burlesque and none of this would've happened).

Sound

1. F1
2. Sinners
3. One Battle After Another
4. Sirat
5. Frankenstein

The Lowdown: After watching Sirat, I realized why this was nominated (the sound work is on full-display throughout, and honestly is a supporting actor in how prominent it is), though unlike The Zone of Interest, I wasn't as impressed, and felt it bordered the line between best and most that sometimes tech categories can't distinguish.  I was far more impressed with F1 and Sinners, the former a sea of zooming cars & "you're practically there" race scenes, the latter a wonderfully constructed semi-musical.  I'm going to go with F1, a movie I think did both mixing & effects well (I'm old-school), but either would make a good winner.

Casting

1. Hamnet
2. Sinners
3. One Battle After Another
4. The Secret Agent
5. Marty Supreme

The Lowdown: The first year of this category, I also kind of need to set my own parameters of how I'm going to grade this, as (like editing) you don't entirely know what was left in the cutting process.  For me, I think it comes down to how well the cast works together, how ingenious/inventive the casting process is (particularly if an actor isn't an obvious choice), and whether there are any clear standout good/bad casting decisions that elevate/demote it.  For me, I have Hamnet over the next two-I don't think there's a bad choice in the casts here, which is saying something as there usually is, but Hamnet had the stunt casting of two actual brothers to underline one character and the character he inspired, and that on top of Mescal & Buckley being perfect for their parts puts it in the lead.

Cinematography

1. Train Dreams
2. One Battle After Another
3. Sinners
4. Marty Supreme
5. Frankenstein

The Lowdown: Sinners has, for my money, some of the best cinematography of the year.  The Golden Hour shots are honestly breathtaking, but the night scenes suffer (by my personal tastes), with them trying to patch over some of the gaps in the visual effects (I liked the makeup, but the visual effects were more hit-or-miss for me), by making the screen too dark to see properly make it hard to judge overall as a success.  As a result, I am all in on the beautiful Train Dreams, a gorgeous Lubezki-esque take on the passage of time with a camera.  In a year where, in general, Cinematography was lacking (this is somehow going to be the weakest of my My Ballot lists in a few weeks), this is the one film that really embraced looking like a movie you'll remember forever.

Costume Design

1. Sinners
2. Hamnet
3. Marty Supreme
4. Avatar: Fire & Ash
5. Frankenstein

The Lowdown: It's possible I totally upend this entire list (looking like the only category I'll do that with), but for me it's all about the outfits specifically worn by Michael B. Jordan & Michael B. Jordan in the film.  Part of Sinners ability to inspire is that you kind of need to be horny for the dual MBJ's (this is a very sexy movie, with an early sex scene and Jack O'Connell clearly meant to be both figuratively and literally carnal), and the gorgeous teal-and-red combo that Ruth E. Carter brings here is better than the peasant period fare in Hamnet or the out-of-this-world third spin on Avatar (the craziest nomination of 2025).  I will note that the Mia Goth peacock outfit in this photo is so good it makes me forget that I was largely uninspired by the rest of Frankenstein.

Film Editing

1. One Battle After Another
2. Sinners
3. F1
4. Sentimental Value
5. Marty Supreme

The Lowdown: I mean, sometimes this category gets something a bit out-of-the-box (F1 was probably further along here than in the Best Picture race), but there are days I think "Oscar didn't try to think beyond his five favorite movies in the editing branch...should I even bother?"  I will note that One Battle After Another's win here comes from the way it unfolds tension-the bank robbery scenes, the harrowing conversation late in the film between Sean Penn & Chase Infiniti...it's something to behold.  Sinners might have had a better shot if it had had more consistent cinematography lighting, as well as had the good sense to cut that post-credits ending which feels nonsensical and totally unnecessary (but the building tension there is something else).

Makeup & Hairstyling

1. Kokuho
2. Sinners
3. Frankenstein
4. The Smashing Machine
5. The Ugly Stepsister

The Lowdown: Oscar has historically struggled with horror in his category even though it is very much the bread-and-butter of the genre, so it's weird to see a lineup where the majority of the nominees come from that world.  I am not so apathetic (I nominate horror more regularly for the My Ballot), and while I was impressed with the violent deformity of Sinners and the albino care of Frankenstein, my heart belongs to the remarkable beauty and elegant aging of Kokuho, giving us a first-hand at the look of kabuki theater.

Production Design

1. Sinners
2. Marty Supreme
3. One Battle After Another
4. Hamnet
5. Frankenstein

The Lowdown: We're going to give Sinners its final trophy here (genuinely curious how this compares to its count with Oscar-it ended up taking three statues from me), with the sets in this feeling so authentically barren.  There's so much personality and touches in the dancehalls and railway stations in Coogler's work, and yet they feel appropriately isolated-there's nowhere to run.  I'll note that most of this lineup is good, and this is Marty Supreme's worthiest nomination (I love the on-a-budget redesign of New York City that never feels like it's on a budget at all), but Sinners feels like it lives in the set the most, and adds the most to the story.

Visual Effects

1. Avatar: Fire & Ash
2. F1
3. Jurassic World Rebirth
4. Sinners
5. The Lost Bus

The Lowdown: Putting Avatar in a lineup of Visual Effects always feels like you're playing on cheat mode.  The latest round doesn't have the "how the hell did they do that?" impact that its predecessors had, but in an era where visual effects are increasingly sloppy, overdone, and clearly glossed over by darkened cinematography (looking at you, The Lost Bus), it has beauty and looks fantastic, and even against something as impressive as the technical virtuosity of F1, it's unbeatable.

Past Oscar Viewing Projects: 1931-3219481957, 1972198119992000200120022003200420052006200720082009201020112012201320142015201620172018201920202021202220232024

Friday, January 16, 2026

Final 2025 Oscar Predictions

On Thursday, the Oscars will announce the nominees for the 98th Academy Awards, just two years shy of the 100th edition of the ceremony.  If you follow me on Letterboxd (and you should!), you'll know that I've been working heartily on getting a bunch of 2025 screenings done in advance of our Oscar Viewing Project.  I'm confident I won't have seen them all by then (too many things to do this week, and honestly if I'm even close to right at least a few of these I won't have access to before then), but as long as I can catch Marty Supreme this weekend, I'll likely have seen all of the major nominees, and will be able to quickly dive into both the Oscar Viewing Project and the My Ballot awards shortly for the year so we can be back to claiming I've profiled every year of the 21st Century.

One thing I will note before we get to this article-the Sinners tally.  It has become something of a parlor game in recent days to talk about whether or not Sinners will break the record for most-nominated movie of all-time.  The current record is a three-way tie between All About Eve, Titanic, & La La Land.  It's definitely possible for Sinners to do so, and honestly it has a better-than-even shot at least tying the record.  It's eligible in all ten of the tech categories (some of which it's a lock for, a couple of which are a stretch), can get the trio of Picture/Director/Writing unless there's an upset, and therefore would just need two acting nominations (not guaranteed...it's honestly not a lock for any acting nods), but certainly plausible.  I don't count nominations as I do predictions, but I'll circle back with a Sinners count at the end of the article.

Notes: I have ranked these from most-to-least likely nominees, though I will own that you should focus most on what I predict vs. what I don't.  I try to predict at least a few nominees that I think might make it for bragging rights (Supporting Actor, Score, and Makeup have those), but ultimately go with how many I get right.  I only list alternates to give you a portrait of what the category looks like and what else was on my mind.  It's a pet peeve of mine when people claim credit for longshots by putting them as alternates, but not actually voting for them...don't give me that credit either. 😊

Picture

1. One Battle After Another
2. Hamnet
3. Sinners
4. Marty Supreme
5. Frankenstein
6. Sentimental Value
7. The Secret Agent
8. Bugonia
9. It Was Just An Accident
10. Train Dreams
Alt: Wicked: For Good, Avatar 3

The Lowdown: As ever, the first 6-7 are locked in, and Bugonia has done so well all season it's hard to see it missing.  I think the biggest question I have for the final two is whether Oscar (which has increasingly become less populist than it once was, actually living up to the "movies no one sees" label that once really was an unfair criticism), will go with two critically-acclaimed (but very under-seen) dramas versus two big, splashy sequels.  Neither Wicked nor Avatar had particularly strong reviews, but both should do decently enough in the tech categories to split the difference.  Honestly, F1 is going to do well enough in the tech categories (and would be a nice composite of box office & critical acclaim) maybe I'm skipping an obvious contender, but I just don't buy a Brad Pitt race-car flick is getting into Best Picture.

Director

1. Paul Thomas Anderson (One Battle After Another)
2. Chloe Zhao (Hamnet)
3. Guillermo del Toro (Frankenstein)
4. Ryan Coogler (Sinners)
5. Jafar Panahi (It Was Just An Accident)
Alts: Josh Safdie (Marty Supreme), Joachim Trier (Sentimental Value)

The Lowdown: A lot of pundits seem hung up on this one, and I kind of get it.  With this branch's tendency to pick at least one international feature director (and three films-Sentimental Value, It Was Just an Accident, & The Secret Agent-all looking like Best Picture nominees), it's hard to guess who gets in and who gets the cut.  I'm going with Panahi because his film is so in their wheelhouse (the other two are more actorly triumphs), and I'm cutting Josh Safdie to get there because the Academy has never really shown a penchant for the Safdies before, and even though they will now...by how much?

Actor

1. Timothee Chalamet (Marty Supreme)
2. Leonardo DiCaprio (One Battle After Another)
3. Ethan Hawke (Blue Moon)
4. Wagner Moura (The Secret Agent)
5. Michael B. Jordan (Sinners)
Alts: Joel Edgerton (Train Dreams), Jesse Plemons (Bugonia)

The Lowdown: I think the battle for the winner here is still in-the-air (I'm not buying a Chalamet sweep yet, even if that's the likeliest end-game here), but the battle for the nominees feels...done?  Jordan's the  most vulnerable mostly because he's been worthy before, and Oscar didn't bite.  He's never had this strong of a movie to go with, but playing two characters in a major Best Picture nominee (one that made a fortune and proved him a continued movie star?...that's what gets you your first Best Actor nomination).  Edgerton has been on the edges of this category for a long time (and Plemons is in a movie that the industry clearly likes more than most pundits initially expected), but Jordan not getting in would be such a big deal I doubt it comes to pass.

Actress

1. Jessie Buckley (Hamnet)
2. Rose Byrne (If I Had Legs I'd Kick You)
3. Kate Hudson (Song Sung Blue)
4. Emma Stone (Bugonia)
5. Chase Infiniti (One Battle After Another)
Alts: Renate Reinsve (Sentimental Value)

The Lowdown: My working theory, to the point I've written about it on this blog (you can see it here) is that Kate Hudson has been a strong bet for months to get in and pundits aren't taking her seriously because she's not a critical darling, and we've lost the ancient texts of what Oscar voters look for (i.e. box office populism) and while others are surely coming around to her after SAG, I want to claim confidence first.  If she's included, you have to disrupt one of the five women who have totally dominated this year, and I think Reinsve (who is the lead in a movie SAG didn't care about) makes more sense than the lead in a Best Picture frontrunner or two-time winner Emma Stone.  I had Infiniti up until today, and I think she could be the shock omission...but I'm not willing to predict it.

Supporting Actor (Sentimental Value)

1. Stellan Skarsgard (Sentimental Value)
2. Jacob Elordi (Frankenstein)
3. Benicio del Toro (One Battle After Another)
4. Sean Penn (One Battle After Another)
5. Delroy Lindo (Sinners)
Alts: Paul Mescal (Hamnet), Adam Sandler (Jay Kelly)

The Lowdown: Speaking of 2000's movie stars who have not yet secured a lead acting nomination, we have Adam Sandler as one of the most inexplicable omissions of the season.  Sandler has done decently at precursor awards, and his film is SO up Oscar's alley (if there's a surprise film that over-performs on Thursday, Jay Kelly surely fits that bill), but no one seems to care about it, and he's not "esteemed" enough to make it into an Oscar race on his own so I'm doing one of my biggest surprises (and my one acting prediction without a Globe or a SAG nomination) with Delroy Lindo getting in, here over both Sandler and Mescal (who I am precluding because I think enough people will put him in lead that he'll miss).  Lindo is one of those character actors who feels inevitable with Oscar...in a Best Picture nominee this would be a good opportunity to invite him to the club.

Supporting Actress

1. Teyana Taylor (One Battle After Another)
2. Amy Madigan (Weapons)
3. Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas (Sentimental Value)
4. Odessa A'zion (Marty Supreme)
5. Ariana Grande (Wicked: For Good)
Alts: Elle Fanning (Sentimental Value), Wunmi Mosaku (Sinners)

The Lowdown: I honestly think only Taylor is totally safe (and her recent Globes win indicates this feels like she's the frontrunner).  Madigan's in a genre film, Lilleaas has internal competition (and is a pretty subtle performance for Oscar)...A'zion also has internal competition, and no one other than Grande seems to care about her film's Oscar chances anymore (Erivo didn't even bother showing up for the Globes).  This seems like the sort of category ripe for an upset (not just an alternate like the ones I listed, but something crazy like Chase Infiniti pulling a reverse Keisha Castle-Hughes and getting in here or Emily Watson randomly scoring for Hamnet).  I truly hope this is something crazy, given so much of the Top 6 seems to be pretty staid.

Adapted Screenplay

1. One Battle After Another
2. Hamnet
3. Frankenstein
4. Bugonia
5. Train Dreams
Alts: No Other Choice

The Lowdown: The ten-wide races have honestly made the writing categories SUCH a snore (this is true of a lot of the fields, but especially writing), as there was once a time movies would only get writing nominations, and that honestly could've made something like No Other Choice, the only movie I think is a real threat to take on an otherwise pretty predictable Top 5, a sole nominee (as I think its International Feature citation is on shaky ground).  Also, with Yorgos Lanthimos getting yet another nomination here, he has to be on the shortlist of the next Director that will pull a Nolan/del Toro (and soon a PTA) and get his "year" of finally getting a gold statue.

Original Screenplay

1. Sinners
2. It Was Just an Accident
3. Marty Supreme
4. Sentimental Value
5. The Secret Agent
Alts: Sorry Baby, Jay Kelly

The Lowdown: You see what I mean about the writing categories being carbon copies of the Best Picture race, right?  There is a VERY real possibility that the only writing nominees will be the ten films nominated for Best Picture.  The Secret Agent getting beaten by Sorry Baby or Jay Kelly, quite frankly, also feels like an odd situation-it's very writerly (it's literally about chronicling one man's life), and despite Julia Roberts pleas, I'm not sure enough people have seen these movies for them to care.  If there's not a mirror matchup, it'll be because some movies like Wicked or Avatar made the Best Picture lineup...I feel like I will be 10/10 with writing.

Animated Feature Film

1. KPop Demon Hunters
2. Zootopia 2
3. Arco
5. Little Amelie or the Character of Rain
5. Elio
Alts: In Your Dreams, The Bad Guys 2
Note: For reasons I can't entirely explain (it seems it wasn't submitted), global phenomenon Ne Zha 2 wasn't eligible, otherwise I'd probably have listed it given it was the year's biggest film.

The Lowdown: I cannot remember the last time I had less of a read on the Animated Feature race.  I've only seen three of these films (I should probably get to at least one more this weekend), and it's weird how there's not a lot of critical buzz around the smaller films (it's mostly just Disney, K-Pop, and a bunch of movies few people have seen) where it feels like they're standing out.  Honestly, an underwhelming year for animation, and why I think that Pixar squeezes in mostly because it's at least another movie that was released wide in theaters.  Similar to Despicable Me 2 a few years ago, I'm not predicting it but wouldn't be totally surprised if the sleeper hit The Bad Guys 2 gets in with such a slow year even if its predecessor missed.

International Feature Film

1. It Was Just an Accident (France)
2. Sentimental Value (Norway)
3. The Secret Agent (Brazil)
4. Sirat (Spain)
5. No Other Choice (South Korea)
Alts: Sound of Falling (Germany), The Voice of Hind Rajab (Tunisia)

The Lowdown: As I said above, I think No Other Choice is on shaky ground here, mostly because this would be SUCH a specifically populist lineup (all of these movies have played in theaters in the US in a decent number of theaters, and all of them are threats for nominations in other categories).  This isn't usually how Oscar goes.  With the exception of last year, there's always at least one film that's waiting in the wings.  Sound of Falling is a country Oscar likes, while The Voice of Hind Rajab is the kind of out-of-left-field drama (excuse me, docudrama) that is this category's raison d'être: shining a light on a movie you've never even heard of before.

Score

1. Sinners
2. One Battle After Another
3. Hamnet
4. F1
5. Jay Kelly
Alts: Frankenstein, Marty Supreme

The Lowdown: Okay, here's my logic.  My working theory is that former Academy favorite Alexandre Desplat, who works CONSTANTLY but hasn't had an Oscar nomination in several years (despite working on showy Oscar-nominated films like The Midnight Sky, Pinocchio, & Nyad) will be the surprise miss of the morning under the working theory the branch is mad at him, and he doesn't get in for Frankenstein...which breaks into my other working theory, that Jay Kelly (otherwise forgotten) will randomly get one tech nomination because it's too good of a movie (and too up Oscar's alley) not to score somewhere.

Original Song

1. "Golden" (KPop Demon Hunters)
2. "I Lied to You" (Sinners)
3. "Dear Me" (Diane Warren: Relentless)
4. "Salt Then Sour Then Sweet" (Come See Me in the Good Light)
5. "The Girl in the Bubble" (Wicked: For Good)
Alts: "Train Dreams" (Train Dreams), "Drive" (F1)

The Lowdown: My next working theory is that Nick Cave, who has bizarrely never gotten an Oscar nomination despite regular work in films that I know Academy voters are watching, is also something of a music branch pariah (this was, weirdly, a working theory on Desplat until he finally made it into the conversation in 2006 after years of exceptional work), and will miss for Train Dreams here.  That leaves room for Ariana Grande to get double-nominations, as her film seems to be the stronger of the two contenders.  Diane Warren will get predicted until that pattern finally breaks, and her film randomly getting listed for Best Score is a sign it won't.

Sound

1. One Battle After Another
2. Sinners
3. F1
4. Avatar: Fire & Ash
5. Frankenstein
Alts: Wicked: For Good, Sirat

The Lowdown: I don't have a great gage on Avatar: Fire & Ash's strength in this field, and that's why I'm putting it in here but not many other places.  The first film won 9 Oscar nominations (and three wins) while the second just got four (with one win)...both got into Best Picture, though, which I don't think Fire & Ash will do.  I don't, however, think it goes home with just its gimme Visual Effects nomination, so I'm putting it here alongside Frankenstein even though Sirat did pretty well in the shortlists, and Wicked 2 is a musical (something they love here).

Casting

1. One Battle After Another
2. Sinners
3. Marty Supreme
4. Sentimental Value
5. Hamnet
Alts: Frankenstein, Wake Up Dead Man, The Secret Agent

The Lowdown: I'm allowing myself three alternates here (usually I max out at two) because this is a brand-new category, and it's hard to tell what they should do.  My working theory is that this is just a dumping ground to run up the score for Best Picture nominees (this has, admittedly, been what most of these categories have turned into), in which case these five plus Frankenstein makes what we'll probably end up with in this field.  However, I will allow this could be a case where a super buzzy cast might make it into the field (something like Wake Up Dead Man would fit this bill), as well as something where there's a genuinely impressive feat being mounted by the casting director with getting a mix of stars and unknowns (The Secret Agent).  We shall see.

Cinematography

1. Sinners
2. One Battle After Another
3. Frankenstein
4. Train Dreams
5. Nouvelle Vague
Alts: F1, Hamnet

The Lowdown: Can I be honest?  Cinematography (along with Visual Effects) are my two favorite tech categories, and I left this year's lineup a little...underwhelmed?  This isn't just about Oscar's lineup, but I think in general there was less of interest than you'd expect (in a surprisingly strong year for movies), and I think that will partially end up with Oscar picking showy stuff like Frankenstein against something a bit subtler like Hamnet because they're already curious about the quality and will want to cover their butt (despite it having the opposite effect) by nominating "most cinematography."  And when they pick a "most" cinematography, they usually pick a black-and-white movie which is where Nouvelle Vague is coming from.

Costume Design

1. Frankenstein
2. Sinners
3. Wicked: For Good
4. Hamnet
5. Kiss of the Spider Woman
Alts: One Battle After Another, Marty Supreme

The Lowdown: The big questions I have here are around Wicked: For Good (if it totally falters, this could fall, but even if it scores nowhere else I think it makes it here), and then Kiss of the Spider Woman.  This category is one of the few that cares considerably more about the film itself than the box office (it nominates flops relatively regularly), and I think that Spider Woman has an old-Holllywood glamour that could be catnip here, especially compared to the more modern takes in One Battle or Marty Supreme.  Hamnet is in-between them because it's a period film without a lot of particularly showy period costumes (we spend so much time with the middle-class, there's no grand ball gowns that would normally make this irresistible to AMPAS).

Film Editing

1. One Battle After Another
2. Sinners
3. Marty Supreme
4. F1
5. Hamnet
Alts: It Was Just An Accident, Sentimental Value

The Lowdown: I mentioned F1 in the Best Picture lineup, but I will note it has a lot of heat in a lot of categories, and maybe it's not crazy to think it could get in there?  One of the key testing grounds will be here, where virtually every contender is a Best Picture threat, and that's true of all of the other six films I listed.  Hamnet is vulnerable because it's a small film (unlike F1 where it's all about whether Oscar will choose a movie that isn't a gimme for Best Picture), but so is Sentimental Value, so if it leaves I kind of think it'll be for the ticking clock effect of It Was Just an Accident.

Makeup & Hairstyling

1. Frankenstein
2. The Smashing Machine
3. Sinners
4. Kokuho
5. Nuremberg
Alts: One Battle After Another, Wicked: For Good

The Lowdown: All logic goes out the window when it comes to Makeup, as they play by a different set of rules.  Here, if a subtitled film you've never heard of makes it into the shortlist, you nominate it...even if you've never heard of it, and so Kokuho is now headed to "Oscar-nominated" status in my book.  The same can be said for a famous movie star recreating a famous person, and I think Russell Crowe as Hermann Goring makes more sense to guess than Robert de Niro as Frank Costello.  One Battle After Another and Wicked: For Good would be more logical choices for a different branch...but that wouldn't be respecting the bonkers nature of the Makeup department.

Production Design

1. Frankenstein
2. Marty Supreme
3. Wicked: For Good
4. Sinners
5. Hamnet
Alts: Avatar: Fire & Ash, Bugonia

The Lowdown: This is one of two tech categories (along with the next one) where I actually think Sinners is in trouble.  The top three are so completely in Oscar's wheelhouse, and with tech categories saying there's more than three locks is stuff amateurs do (there's never that many locks unless you have a ten-wide shortlist).  It's particularly interesting because Sinners largely takes place in one building for the back half of the movie, while Bugonia, Avatar, and Hamnet have increasingly expanded worlds.  Of those three I'm going with Hamnet because production design is a crucial component of the movie's final scenes, but any of those three would make sense.

Visual Effects

1. Avatar: Fire and Ash
2. F1
3. Frankenstein
4. The Lost Bus
5. Superman
Alts: Sinners, Wicked: For Good

The Lowdown: We finish this with my favorite tech category (some days my favorite category period), and one that a few months ago I wrote about how we had just two films that were guaranteed to make the shortlist: Avatar and Wicked.  I was right about both, but they went in with very different momentum-Avatar looks certain to take the prize, while Wicked is so on the outs, I can't in good faith predict it for an actual nomination.  Alongside Production Design, this feels like Sinners biggest problem, and since I guessed it there, I'm leaving it out here.  So I'm keeping both of those two pictures (one of which I haven't seen yet as of this writing, but will this week), and taking out a major Best Picture contender and a film that once looked like a juggernaut.

Final Sinners Count: I have it getting 14.  It's clearly in a position where it could pick up 1-2 more (Supporting Actress & Visual Effects stand out as places I had it as an also-ran), but it's also vulnerable in enough (Actor, Supporting Actor, in my opinion Production Design) that I'd probably bet on it tying rather than beating the record...but it'll be close.