Tuesday, September 13, 2016

Emmy Predictions: The Dramas

Egads!  The Emmys are this weekend, and we're actually already done with a bunch of the categories already (well done, Game of Thrones, and kudos to Amy Poehler even though I'm a little concerned about the precedence you set by co-winning for no apparent reason with Tina Fey).  Though I don't talk about television quite as much on this blog as I do film and politics, I do partake quite a bit, and wanted to be on the record over who I think is taking home the golden lady this Sunday.  Let's start with the dramas, shall we?

Best Drama Series

The Americans
Better Call Saul
Downton Abbey
Game of Thrones
House of Cards
Mr. Robot

The Lowdown: First off, as I just mentioned, I don't watch as much TV as I do movies, so I am a little surprised (in a genuine, and not sarcastic) way that Homeland is still on the air-I thought that it had already ended.  As I have enough confidence in my predicting abilities to think that I would have heard of the winning show, I'll desist in predicting that series.

Honestly, this feels like a battle between last year's victor Game of Thrones and one of the uncrowned in the form of The Americans and I, Robot.  Both shows have been critically hosanna'd and it's nice to see them in the race, but Game of Thrones already took a bushel of Creative Arts Emmys, and won last year at an awards ceremony that loves to see shows repeat and repeat and repeat.  Expect the most popular drama of this bunch to take the throne once more.

Best Actor in a Drama Series

Kyle Chandler, Bloodline
Rami Malek, Mr. Robot
Bob Odenkirk, Better Call Saul
Matthew Rhys, The Americans
Liev Schreiber, Ray Donovan
Kevin Spacey, House of Cards

The Lowdown: While some of these men have won Emmy Awards previously, they have never been successful for these shows, as the last couple of years have produced actors who are on now cancelled programs (Jeff Daniels, Bryan Cranston, Jon Hamm).  Part of me thinks that they will simply go with Kevin Spacey, who has to have been in the running previously and probably would have won at the House of Cards heyday had Bryan Cranston not been consistently cleaning up, but that show is so played out at this point and they're not wild about giving someone a trophy toward the end of their run even if they have long-nominated you (just ask Jane Kaczmarek and Steve Carell).  As a result, I'm going with the new kid on the block Rami Malek, being the representative from I, Robot who gets onstage.

Best Actress in a Drama Series

Claire Danes, Homeland
Viola Davis, How to Get Away with Murder
Taraji P. Henson, Empire
Tatiana Maslany, Orphan Black
Keri Russell, The Americans
Robin Wright, House of Cards

The Lowdown: First off, congratulations to Keri Russell, the only woman in this bunch who isn't a rerun of the 2015 nominees (considering her long television career, this feels like a great addition to the "Emmy-nominated" club).  Here we do have the previous year's victor in the form of Viola Davis, and because the Emmys are oftentimes renewing contenders, I wonder if she might just do it again (and it would be a nice nod to the broadcast networks, who still foot the bill for the show and probably want to be honored somewhere).  Plus, the ceremony's on ABC this year.  I think her biggest competition is Robin Wright, who like Spacey has never won and apparently had a big season this year.  I'm going to guess that Wright just pulls it off because they'll want to mix it up a little bit (HTGAWM having just an okay second season), but if Davis wins again I wouldn't be remotely surprised.

Best Supporting Actor in a Drama Series

Jonathan Banks, Better Call Saul
Peter Dinklage, Game of Thrones
Kit Harington, Game of Thrones
Michael Kelly, House of Cards
Ben Mendelsohn, Bloodline
Jon Voight, Ray Donovan

The Lowdown: I will admit that of all of the acting categories at the Emmy Awards each year (much like the Oscars), the category I find least interesting is Supporting Actor.  It's usually just a roster of the same men, every single year, and the same set of shows, and that's a repeat again this year as all but one of this year's nominees (Kit Harington) is present for the first time.  Last year's victor Peter Dinklage could show up again in what looks to be a predictable bunch, but I think it's a battle between Jonathan Banks and newcomer Harington, who had an impressive story arch for a guy who started the season dead.  Last year I got burned for going with Banks, so I'm switching it up this year and guessing Harington will be part of a major Game of Thrones award stampede.

Best Supporting Actress in a Drama Series

Emilia Clarke, Game of Thrones
Lena Headey, Game of Thrones
Maggie Smith, Downton Abbey
Maura Tierney, The Affair
Maisie Williams, Game of Thrones
Constance Zimmer, UnReal

The Lowdown: First off-congrats to the new names on this list (Williams and Zimmer being particularly surprising), as that's always tough for Emmy to pull off; they didn't even go with last year's victorious Uzo Aduba, meaning that we're guaranteed to have a newcomer...well, at least not a repeat as Maggie Smith has been a winner here before and sentiment could demand she take it again. However, as Smith is very unlikely to show up (she hasn't been to an American awards show since she was up for Gosford Park fourteen years ago), I think this is Headey's.  She's had a commanding story arch for a few years now (many figured she'd win last year), she's the most "actorly" choice on Game of Thrones (give or take Dinklage), and Emmy will probably want to have crowned her at least once.  Smith's my backup, but I'm thinking Cersei takes it.

Those are my guesses-we'll get into Comedy tomorrow, but in the meantime share your guesses (and hopes) in the drama categories for Sunday!

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