This morning, Republicans had not one but two major retirements in the midwest, with Sen. Joni Ernst and Wisconsin Supreme Court Justice Rebecca Bradley both announcing that they will not seek reelection next year. As is our routine on the blog, these types of retirements result in a "five thoughts" article, and boy do I have thoughts.
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| Sen. Joni Ernst (R-IA) |
It's hard to remember this at this point, but at one juncture Joni Ernst was a political underdog. In her first Senate campaign in 2014, up until Labor Day of that year, it seemed pretty likely that Rep. Bruce Braley would succeed Tom Harkin in the Senate. Iowa had historically benefited from splitting its Senate delegation (ensuring there was a veto card on both sides of the aisle when it came to ethanol subsidies), and Ernst was a relative unknown compared to Braley, who was a sitting member of Congress. But an impressive campaign (with her infamous "let's make 'em squeal" ad) led her to two terms in the Senate, watching as Iowa became a solidly red state in the process.
But Ernst's tenure in DC has been, shall we say, unimpressive by comparison to that early promise. She regularly got herself into verbal trouble, from not knowing the price of soybeans in a 2020 debate to mocking people who were knocked off Medicaid by saying "we're all going to die," Ernst was arguably vulnerable enough in 2026 that Democrats might not have gained much in terms of advantage this morning (depending on who succeeds her, it's arguable that Ernst would've been easier to beat). Ernst's inability to join either Trump administration (she was rumored for both the Vice Presidency and Secretary of Defense), only to lose out to men that were less qualified to her, can't help either (and neither can the alleged sex scandals with government officials that have plagued her messy divorce). She'll retire in Chuck Grassley's shadow, a senator with little to show for her time in office other than an upset victory and riding the Trump wave.
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| Rep. Ashley Hinson (R-IA) |
Ernst's retirement means that a number of Republicans will be considering the race. I would expect the list to largely be centered around three names, though: Attorney General Brenna Bird, and Reps. Ashley Hinson & Zach Nunn. Bird, Hinson, & Nunn all three turned down the chance to run for Governor (a race that seems increasingly likely to be between Auditor Rob Sand and Rep. Randy Feenstra), but this will be too tempting for them not to give it a shot. Nunn's seat is extremely vulnerable, even more so without him (Hinson, as well, has a formidable Democratic opponent that could be a problem if she leaves, though not to the degree of Nunn), and there will be intense pressure on him to stay put, possibly even from President Trump (who pushed him out of the governor's race). You could argue that Chuck Grassley's seat, likely to be open in 2028, is an option, but his grandson Pat Grassley has basically been sitting waiting for that for years, and the Grassley machine will surely push him. If you're Nunn, Bird, or Hinson, this might be your one true shot at getting a promotion, and they'd be fools not to look into it.
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| State Sen. Zach Wahls (D-IA) |
I will admit-my hope was that Democrats would get to fight against Ernst. In a similar fashion to the governor's race, where I was hoping Kim Reynolds would be Rob Sand's opponent, I think it'll be easier for the GOP to market a "conservative but still a change" pol against Ernst than against someone like Hinson or Bird who can say that they're "not the same old playbook" even if they're virtually identical to Ernst politically. The biggest tell of this-I don't anticipate that any new Democrats will enter the race that weren't already in the contest due to Ernst's exit. The race feels increasingly likely to be a battle between two members of the state legislature (State Rep. Josh Turek & State Sen. Zach Wahls), to the point that another candidate (State Rep. JD Scholten) dropped his campaign for the seat a few weeks ago and endorsed Turek.
One thing that I hope Democrats do make a point of finding a way to campaign on is ethanol & agricultural issues, because a reality seems to be setting in that I don't think farmers are acknowledging. Ethanol is one of those third rails in politics that no one touches because of the Iowa caucuses, and because Iowa has historically been a swing state. However, with Iowa losing both its early position in the primaries and losing its swing state status, it doesn't really provide incentive to protect ethanol in the Senate for Democrats. This trend continues with other key ethanol states that have historically either 1) sent Democrats to the Senate but haven't in recent years (South Dakota, Nebraska) and 2) states that do send Democrats, but the agricultural sectors have abandoned them so incumbent Democrats don't really need to care about ethanol (Minnesota, Illinois). If I was playing chess with my vote, having a US Senator Zach Wahls would be much more valuable as a farmer to me than sending yet another Republican to the Senate, mostly because Wahls would have the power as a single senator to force ethanol spending at current levels even if the Democrats win a trifecta in 2029 (no way would Chuck Schumer endanger one of his most valuable incumbents, even if the majority of his caucus wanted him to)...something there's no guarantee of if the Democrats don't have a senator from Iowa or Nebraska by then.
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| Sen. Susan Collins (R-ME) |
There are, on paper, eight senators who have still not officially announced they are running for reelection, all but one of them (Chris Coons, who is 61 and I'd imagine stays for at least one more term) being Republicans. Most of them are first-termers (Roger Marshall, Markwayne Mullin, Cynthia Lummis) who will definitely go again, but there are three senators (Shelley Moore Capito, Steve Daines, & Susan Collins) that do invite question marks of whether they'd want to stay on. Capito's son Moore is currently a nominee to be US Attorney and ran briefly for Governor in 2024...I wouldn't be stunned if she stays on one more term in hopes of handing the seat off to him the way I would think Chuck Grassley will with his grandson. Steve Daines had a very strong run in the leadership last cycle (he ran a successful tenure as NRSC Chair), and might want to stick around to see if he can parlay that into a stint as leader (that's how Chuck Schumer eventually got his job).
But Susan Collins...with increasingly tenuous approval ratings, her political skills a bit rusty (just look at her most recent handling of a public speech where she was booed), and a rough-looking midterm, is the biggest remaining question mark in the deck. I think Collins would be formidable, though I don't think her race is any better than a Tossup, but she could retire undefeated from Congress if she left next year, and has to be aware that her hero (Margaret Chase Smith) couldn't read the room in 1972, and lost despite being an icon in the state because she was "out of touch" with voters. If she steps aside, the race becomes a guaranteed flip, so somewhere John Thune is promising Collins literally everything she wants to stay one more term, but I think this is a conversation that could get interesting.
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| Judge Rebecca Bradley (R-WI) |
Ernst is certainly the most famous person retiring today, but she might not be the most consequential. Rebecca Bradley, the most conservative member of the Wisconsin Supreme Court, announced that she would retire rather than stay on as a "minority member of the Court." Shifting voting trends in Wisconsin, where Republicans haven't won a Supreme Court race there since they (barely) pulled off a victory in 2019, probably factored into Bradley's calculations more than being in the minority. Democrats are increasingly more likely to show up for off-cycle elections (Joni Ernst announcing retirement just three days after the Democrats flipped a Trump-won State Senate seat in Iowa is possibly not a coincidence), and they already had a head-start with Judge Chris Taylor basically their nominee. Now the Republicans will, with Donald Trump in office, have to defend Bradley's seat without an incumbent to help them (incumbency is something that, even in this partisan environment, is super difficult to fight against in Wisconsin's Supreme Court races, to the point where this race just went from Slight Republican to Lean Democrat, a seismic shift). Should they lose, the Democrats will have three justices locked in for 2030's census, meaning that Republicans will be one loss away from not having the final call on congressional and legislative maps that cycle.
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