What Happens if Richard Burr Resigns?

Sen. Richard Burr (R-NC)

I promised you last week we'd get into some elections analysis this week, and I am going to uphold said bargain today by talking about Richard Burr, the senior Republican US Senator from the state of North Carolina.  This has been a fast-developing story, and it's worth noting, potentially it's a discussion of an election that could not happen, but I think we're at the point where we should consider whether or not Richard Burr will cause an unexpected special election this fall.

For those not keeping score at home, Richard Burr was accused of insider trading in the past few months, specifically that he sold upwards of $1.7 million worth of stock, potentially as a result of Covid-19 related briefings he was receiving that were not public at the time.  The types of stock that Burr sold were a bit damning, as they included Wyndham Hotels & Resorts and Extended Stay America, both of which are hotel/lodging companies that of course were severely hit with less people traveling amid the shelter-in-place orders.  Burr was not the only one who was under investigation by the Justice Department; three other senators were also being investigated: Kelly Loeffler (R-GA), Jim Inhofe (R-OK), and Dianne Feinstein (D-CA), but it was reported last night that only the case against Burr is still being pursued by the Justice Department.

This is, shall we say, a little interesting.  For starters, on-the-surface while the allegations against Inhofe and Feinstein could be relatively easy to write off (it seems in both cases that you could chalk it up to both senators being very wealthy & as such trading that much money isn't uncommon), Loeffler's charges were arguably worse than Burr's.  Loeffler not only also unloaded stocks that would be severely impacted by the Covid-19 outbreak (specifically shares in apparel retailers Ross, TJ Maxx, and Lululemon, all of which have been hurt by shelter-in-place orders), but she also bought shares in Citrix, a technology company that specializes in creating work-from-home technologies, and which has seen a huge lift in performance since the Covid-19 outbreak caused multiple corporations to start working from home.

Sen. Kelly Loeffler (R-GA)

Loeffler, though, has not been a thorn in Donald Trump's side in the same way that Burr has.  Burr has received significant criticism from both sides about his performance as Senate Intelligence Chair, but it's more important here to note that Burr did not buy into the "there was no Russian interference in the 2016 election" myth that President Trump has been desperate to peddle, even if he has cut the president significant breaks during Trump's term (namely that Burr didn't call John Bolton as an impeachment witness and that Burr voted not to remove Trump on either impeachment count despite having extensive knowledge of Trump's behavior from the Mueller Report).  Loeffler, on the other hand (via her husband) donated $1 million to the Trump fund in May, and has quickly seen the charges against her drop.

I'm not here to point out that Loeffler's behavior and the subsequent dismissal of her charges feel, at best, highly suspect, and at worse, very akin to a bribe (that's something I hope the next Justice Department remembers to look into, though), but instead to focus on the ramifications of what's happening to Burr right now.  Burr has not resigned and has not been indicted on any charges (yet), but he is now the sole senator being investigated for insider trading related to Covid-19, and as a result there's now a lot of attention on him exclusively.  The question here is-would Burr resign from the Senate, and what would happen if he did?

Resignations have become a bit rarer on the GOP side for scandals in recent years, but it's not out-of-the-question for Burr to resign.  Certainly in a different era that would be a foregone conclusion, and if he's indicted by the Trump Justice Department, he'll basically have to resign (for now, he has stepped down from his perch leading the Senate Intelligence Committee, which may have been Trump/Barr's only goal here-to try to get someone more favorable in that position).  When he resigns, though, would matter greatly.

Burr will be replaced by a Republican regardless of when he leaves office and who is governor-that's dictated by North Carolina state law.  If Burr is able to wait until September 4th, though, his seat would not be up for reelection until 2022, when the seat would be open regardless; this is also dictated by North Carolina state law.  This has to be what Mitch McConnell is hoping for right now-getting Burr to wait out the clock until September, and then resign, likely with some sort of plea deal to take prison time off of the table for Burr.

Because the longer Burr stays in office, the worse off it is for McConnell's chances of holding the majority.  Burr is wildly unpopular (making a profit off of Covid-19 will do that to your numbers), and that seems to be transferring to Thom Tillis, his fellow Tarheel senator who is up for reelection this year and is in a tight race.  Tillis isn't going to want to spend all of this fall answering questions from reporters over whether or not he thinks Burr should resign-he'll be damned either way, and it'll make his brand look corrupt.  If he had an innocuous random Republican next to him, that could help.  It might not be enough to win, but it could help.

That said, Burr could still resign early.  Trump has been known to thwart McConnell's plans before, and could indict, or Burr could resign of his own volition, either based on public pressure from North Carolinians or to screw over the Trump administration who is doing him no favors right now.  If that happens before September 4th, all hell breaks loose, because an open seat election in a swing state that looks razor close for both POTUS and Senate already would make the math for a Senate majority much more complicated for McConnell, and much more pleasant for the Democrats.

Gov. Pat McCrory (R-NC)

A race of that nature would become more interesting because many of the potential candidates are already running for public office this year.  All of the constitutional officers are running for reelection right now, as are many of the House Republicans who would consider this race.  With a short race, the Democratic constitutional officers might not want to risk much-more-certain reelections for a short, brutal Senate race, while House Republicans might not want to risk giving up a safe seat to run for a Senate seat that A) might be impossible to win if Joe Biden is also winning statewide and B) will be up in two years anyway.

So my money is on both parties recruiting a well-known figure who is not on the ballot this year.  For the Republicans, that's easy-it's former Gov. Pat McCrory.  McCrory is well-known, clearly interested in running for office again, and would be a clear-the-field candidate with little complaint from the GOP.  He's lost before, in 2016, but it was a close race and he'd have name recognition for a short race that the Democrats wouldn't be able to match.

State Treasurer Janet Cowell (D-NC)

That's because the Democrats don't really have a Pat McCrory lying around.  In 2022, Gov. Roy Cooper or AG Josh Stein might consider the race, but they're running for reelection.  State Rep. Deborah Ross, who ran against Burr in 2016, has a sure bet safe House seat she's running for this year-would she want to give that up for a short campaign against McCrory?  State Senator Terry van Duyn could run, but she just lost a primary a few months ago-would they want to bet on such a recent loser?  Same could be said for State Sen. Erika Smith.  State Sen. Jeff Jackson was heavily considered for the Tillis challenge, but refused to raise the kind of money that he'd need to win to get elected (and money would need to quickly come together for a campaign where you're already well-behind in name recognition).  Former Gov. Mike Easley is a felon and former Gov. Bev Perdue is wildly unpopular.

Which probably means that all eyes would fall to former State Treasurer Janet Cowell.  Cowell was a well-liked Democrat who won her Treasurer office even while Mitt Romney was winning statewide in 2012, so she knows how to gain split-ticket voters.  She's well-known (though not to the degree of McCrory), and has shown interest in the past in Senate races.  She's not currently holding public office, but at the age of 51, she seems quite young to be totally out of politics.  My money would be on Chuck Schumer offering Cowell the kitchen sink in order to get her to run for this seat, and as a pro-choice woman, she'd quickly get a mountain of campaign funds from Emily's List in addition to the DSCC.  A Cowell vs. McCrory contest would be one for the ages (and may well still be where 2022 goes with this seat), but first the question is whether Richard Burr resigns...and just how far Trump's Justice Department is willing to go to make him consider such an action.