OVP: Actor (1999)

OVP: Best Actor (1999)

The Nominees Were...

Russell Crowe, The Insider

Richard Farnsworth, The Straight Story

Sean Penn, Sweet & Lowdown

Kevin Spacey, American Beauty

Denzel Washington, The Hurricane

My Thoughts: The Oscars are an unusual beast.  There are years where a lineup is considered "indisputably great," and others where it's definitely one that AMPAS phoned in...and then there are years like 1999 Best Actor where I honestly feel like your mileage may vary.  The big thing about this lineup is that it features a lot of really good actors.  Four of these men would eventually win Best Actor, only one never getting the trophy (though he had gotten a now-forgotten Supporting Actor nod in 1978), so they're generally considered to be "good" actors, but with maybe 1-2 exceptions, I'd argue none of these actors are giving all-time great performances.

Case in point, we have Denzel Washington, who was nearing the end of his "Denzel Washington should really have an Oscar" years with The Hurricane.  The movie is not good, in my opinion.  This is a paint-by-numbers biopic, a type that has gone out of fashion (now it's more the subject, not the movie star at the center, that is the big focus).  Washington is good (when is he not?), but it's not easy to elevate a movie this hokey, and I don't know that I can give him much credit beyond being good, as the movie isn't capable of a great performance, and is really just trying to acclimate to the cheesy plot and score.

Richard Farnsworth's nomination is so lovable it's hard to begrudge him his first nomination in 20 years, but I'll be real-like The Hurricane, The Straight Story is not a good movie.  It has some Lynchian touches (there's a cameo near the end of the picture by a Lynch staple), but it's generally just a nice Iowa senior citizen driving around in a tractor.  There's not enough beyond Farnsworth's expressive eyes here for me to grade.  Farnsworth is capable of solid acting (look at him in the Anne of Green Gables miniseries a few years before this), but this is just kind of blasé.

Sean Penn is hardly blasé (and a weird anomaly...Allen's films almost always got supporting nominations-other than Woody himself in Annie Hall, this is the only Lead Actor nomination he ever directed), but he might be a bit too committed to the bit in Sweet & Lowdown.  He's acting with ticks, at this point both trying desperately not to care about winning an Oscar, as well as clearly needing it to cement his legacy.  He'd thankfully win for a much better performance four years later...this is honestly one of those performances that end up nominated for a famous actor in the heat of their fame that no one remembers getting into the field after that moment has passed.

The same cannot be said for Russell Crowe's first nomination for The Insider.  Crowe was, like Penn a few years earlier, such an electric new screen presence that every performance felt like an event at this time.  He crafts maybe my favorite piece-of-work from him as an actor here.  He's transformational (this is not the sexy movie star Crowe would be in Gladiator), but his depth doesn't disappear behind the makeup.  There's a haunted quality to this man who keeps getting gutted as he tries to share the truth, and I think Crowe adds that well-the blend of honor, fear, and exhaustion you need to be this type of a whistleblower.

Which brings us to Kevin Spacey.  Spacey's performance in American Beauty is not the best of his career (that would be The Usual Suspects), but it's mesmerizing, and because of his offscreen troubles, undoubtedly the role he'll be most-remembered for at the movies.  I think what he brings to Lester that's really smart is an adolescent attitude.  Look at the fights he picks with his wife, the ones that feel so petty-he wants her to be his girlfriend again, or his mother...he doesn't care that she's become her own woman.  I think Mendes' film would've aged a little bit better if it was clear that Bening wasn't supposed to be the villain, but Spacey's performance is channeling that.  We understand that he is perpetually going to fail, that even in his final moments he's clinging to things that aren't real.  It's one of his better pieces-of-work, and one that makes American Beauty a great picture.

Other Precursor Contenders: The Globes split between Comedy/Musical and Drama for their nominations, so we had 10 nominees to mention from the HFPA.  Drama went to Washington, besting Crowe, Farnsworth, Spacey, and Matt Damon (The Talented Mr. Ripley), while Comedy/Musical went to Jim Carrey (Man on the Moon) beating Oscar nominee Sean Penn, as well as Robert de Niro (Analyze This), Rupert Everett (An Ideal Husband), & Hugh Grant (Notting Hill).  SAG kind of got creative, giving the statue to Spacey against Crowe, Carrey, Washington, & Philip Seymour Hoffman (Flawless), while BAFTA also went with Spacey, besting Crowe, Jim Broadbent (Topsy-Turvy), Om Puri (East is East...which I've never seen-is it good?), and Ralph Fiennes (The End of the Affair).  In sixth place, I think you've got three options.  First is Damon, and my theory for sixth because it's that sweet spot of "out of character" and "prestige drama" (plus Oscar loves a killer).  I would also entertain Carrey, but if he wasn't going to get in for The Truman Show, do we really think this was happening?  And third is the precursor-less Tom Hanks for The Green Mile, who was largely counted out at the time because he'd been so well-rewarded, but the Best Picture nomination makes me think it was closer than you'd guess.  Hanks does have a weird history of being in films nominated for Best Supporting Actor where he missed; it's happened eight times (Apollo 13, The Green Mile, Catch Me If You Can, Road to Perdition, Charlie Wilson's War, Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close, Captain Phillips, & Bridge of Spies) while only one of his Best Actor nominations (Forrest Gump) got a supporting player in-it's one or the other with Hanks.  The trend has continued in reverse in his supporting actor years (Hanks lands but Matthew Rhys doesn't for A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood, Hanks misses but Austin Butler scores for Elvis).  A bit of Oscar trivia for you there.

Actors I Would Have Nominated: Damon for sure-this is the best performance of his career, it's silly that he didn't get a nomination for his hypnotic Tom Ripley.

Oscar’s Choice: The Academy went with Spacey, probably more so over Crowe than over Washington despite what some will protest given Oscar doesn't like giving films Best Actor on their sole nomination.

My Choice: This is a good reminder that we always pick OVP winners in a vacuum.  Usually when I say that, I am referring to we're just picking based on the five performances in front of us (not the actor's larger body of work or considering they might already have a statue), but in this case we don't consider their off-screen behavior.  Given what we now know about Kevin Spacey, I morally couldn't have voted for him in a real world example, and would've instead picked my second place choice Crowe, but for the record I think Spacey is the best performance of the five, and we're giving him the OVP title.  Washington, Farnsworth, and then Penn follow them (in order).

Those are my thoughts-what are yours?  Does everyone think (based solely on performance) that the finest of these five is Kevin Spacey, and if not-who is?  Is Denzel Washington the last time we'll see a real push for "they have to have a win in lead" working as an Oscar momentum situation?  And was it Hanks, Carrey, or Damon in sixth place?  Share your thoughts below in the comments!

Also in 1999: Supporting Actress, Supporting Actor, Adapted Screenplay, Original Screenplay, Foreign Language Film, Sound Mixing, Sound Editing, Original Score, Original Song, Art Direction, Cinematography, Costume, Film Editing, Visual Effects, Makeup, Previously, in 1999

Past Best Actor Contests: 1931-32, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023

OVP: Baby Driver (2017)

Film: Baby Driver (2017)
Stars: Ansel Elgort, Kevin Spacey, Lily James, Eiza Gonzalez, Jon Hamm, Jamie Foxx
Director: Edgar Wright
Oscar History: 3 nominations (Best Sound Mixing, Sound Editing, Film Editing)
Snap Judgment Ranking: 4/5 stars

Seven years ago, I had one of the more surprising moments of my cinematic life when I saw Scott Pilgrim vs. the World.  Up until that point I had never seen one of the films of Edgar Wright, and only knew him by his trailers, none of which particularly interested me.  Michael Cera had at that point become something of a movie star, so it wasn't surprising to see him headlining a comedy for the summer, but like Jonah Hill & Seth Rogen, names I associated with him, he wasn't a calling card for me.  Still, the reviews were quite strong for the picture, and the movie I was supposed to see was sold out, so I thought "let's give this a shot, shall we, as I'm already here?" and so I went in and saw the movie, and I LOVED IT.  I have seen Scott Pilgrim more times than probably any film from 2010, including The Social Network, and I can quote most of the lines.  I was so hooked that I was surprised when Edgar Wright suddenly became less prolific, and didn't make another movie that seemed to capture that quick-witted, visual-flare style of Scott Pilgrim again (perhaps it was due to the Box Office not loving the picture as much as I did).  So when Baby Driver's trailers invited me back looking like they'd been torn out of the same page book as Scott Pilgrim, it didn't take any coaxing for me to be in the theaters.  I was there opening weekend.

(Spoilers Ahead) Inevitably Baby Driver was not going to be Scott Pilgrim, if in part because it wasn't going to be a discovery, but man did I like it anyway.  The movie centers on a getaway driver named Baby (Elgort, perhaps the only actor working who could pull off that moniker), who is about to undertake a heist with a motley crew made up of Buddy (Hamm), his wife Darling (Gonzalez), Bats (Foxx), and Doc (Spacey), the leader of the group.  Like all good crime movies, we see a successful heist to kickoff the picture, and then it unfolds into a series of deadly mistakes, which lead Baby to rebel against the crew as he wants to get out and start a new life with a young waitress named Debora (James).  The film unfurls with multiple characters dying in the process, and a lovely, happy ending akin to Scott Pilgrim as the picture unfolds.

The fun of Scott Pilgrim was that, even at its most ridiculous (how is it that Ramona Flowers has so many evil exes that have superpowers?), was that the lines were snappy and the characters were heartily felt, and certainly the script here delivers.  While there was nothing quite as remarkable as "Julie Powers Has Issues" (I still do a spit take), these are all actors with clearly fine comic timing, give or take Lily James (who isn't really asked to be funny), and some of the visual bits, like anything surrounding Baby's name or his relationship with the deaf man he lives with, feel plum and full of movie positivity.  Honestly-one of the rare things about the first half of Baby Driver might be it's so joyfully in love with its main character, and I liked that.  After seeing him now in a couple of movies, I'm still not entirely sure about how extensive Ansel Elgort's skills are as an actor, but he's nearly impossible not to enjoy watching, and not just because of that exaggeratedly handsome mug of his.  He has to be one of the most charming figures to come to the movies in a long while, and he is exactly right for this part as Baby.  The film lives or dies based on his work, keeping the movie and intrigue about his character steady, and he does that with aplomb.  I genuinely don't know where his career will take him, but between this and his similarly well-cast work in The Fault in Our Stars, he's at least quite fine at picking out scripts.

The movie derails a bit in terms of its fun in the final third of the film, when it borrows perhaps too liberally from Nicolas Winding Refn's Drive, and both Kevin Spacey & Jon Hamm see their characters go in too extreme of directions.  Spacey, while an actor with fine comic timing, doesn't really have a read on a character whose motives are hard to suss out unless you want to start projecting some sort of homosexual love that he has for Baby, and Hamm can't seem to ground his character's dramatics enough toward the end of the movie, making him (in my opinion) the weakest link in the picture, which was not an opinion frequently shared by other critics.  Honestly, for all of the criticism that January Jones gets for being a limited actor, aside from spoofing his handsome-man persona on 30 Rock, has Jon Hamm ever done anything approaching the gift he exhibited in 30 Rock?

That said, for the first half, and occasionally in the second, this is a delight to behold.  Wright combines fun, energy, and wit (both visual and aural) so well onscreen that even when he gets a little bloated or overly confident, it's hard not to dismiss that while you're enjoying your time in the theater.  If you haven't yet, catch this (or Scott Pilgrim), as it's now available on DVD.  And share your thoughts on the picture below!

Emmy Predictions: The Dramas

Egads!  The Emmys are this weekend, and we're actually already done with a bunch of the categories already (well done, Game of Thrones, and kudos to Amy Poehler even though I'm a little concerned about the precedence you set by co-winning for no apparent reason with Tina Fey).  Though I don't talk about television quite as much on this blog as I do film and politics, I do partake quite a bit, and wanted to be on the record over who I think is taking home the golden lady this Sunday.  Let's start with the dramas, shall we?

Best Drama Series

The Americans
Better Call Saul
Downton Abbey
Game of Thrones
Homeland
House of Cards
Mr. Robot

The Lowdown: First off, as I just mentioned, I don't watch as much TV as I do movies, so I am a little surprised (in a genuine, and not sarcastic) way that Homeland is still on the air-I thought that it had already ended.  As I have enough confidence in my predicting abilities to think that I would have heard of the winning show, I'll desist in predicting that series.

Honestly, this feels like a battle between last year's victor Game of Thrones and one of the uncrowned in the form of The Americans and I, Robot.  Both shows have been critically hosanna'd and it's nice to see them in the race, but Game of Thrones already took a bushel of Creative Arts Emmys, and won last year at an awards ceremony that loves to see shows repeat and repeat and repeat.  Expect the most popular drama of this bunch to take the throne once more.

Best Actor in a Drama Series

Kyle Chandler, Bloodline
Rami Malek, Mr. Robot
Bob Odenkirk, Better Call Saul
Matthew Rhys, The Americans
Liev Schreiber, Ray Donovan
Kevin Spacey, House of Cards

The Lowdown: While some of these men have won Emmy Awards previously, they have never been successful for these shows, as the last couple of years have produced actors who are on now cancelled programs (Jeff Daniels, Bryan Cranston, Jon Hamm).  Part of me thinks that they will simply go with Kevin Spacey, who has to have been in the running previously and probably would have won at the House of Cards heyday had Bryan Cranston not been consistently cleaning up, but that show is so played out at this point and they're not wild about giving someone a trophy toward the end of their run even if they have long-nominated you (just ask Jane Kaczmarek and Steve Carell).  As a result, I'm going with the new kid on the block Rami Malek, being the representative from I, Robot who gets onstage.

Best Actress in a Drama Series

Claire Danes, Homeland
Viola Davis, How to Get Away with Murder
Taraji P. Henson, Empire
Tatiana Maslany, Orphan Black
Keri Russell, The Americans
Robin Wright, House of Cards

The Lowdown: First off, congratulations to Keri Russell, the only woman in this bunch who isn't a rerun of the 2015 nominees (considering her long television career, this feels like a great addition to the "Emmy-nominated" club).  Here we do have the previous year's victor in the form of Viola Davis, and because the Emmys are oftentimes renewing contenders, I wonder if she might just do it again (and it would be a nice nod to the broadcast networks, who still foot the bill for the show and probably want to be honored somewhere).  Plus, the ceremony's on ABC this year.  I think her biggest competition is Robin Wright, who like Spacey has never won and apparently had a big season this year.  I'm going to guess that Wright just pulls it off because they'll want to mix it up a little bit (HTGAWM having just an okay second season), but if Davis wins again I wouldn't be remotely surprised.

Best Supporting Actor in a Drama Series

Jonathan Banks, Better Call Saul
Peter Dinklage, Game of Thrones
Kit Harington, Game of Thrones
Michael Kelly, House of Cards
Ben Mendelsohn, Bloodline
Jon Voight, Ray Donovan

The Lowdown: I will admit that of all of the acting categories at the Emmy Awards each year (much like the Oscars), the category I find least interesting is Supporting Actor.  It's usually just a roster of the same men, every single year, and the same set of shows, and that's a repeat again this year as all but one of this year's nominees (Kit Harington) is present for the first time.  Last year's victor Peter Dinklage could show up again in what looks to be a predictable bunch, but I think it's a battle between Jonathan Banks and newcomer Harington, who had an impressive story arch for a guy who started the season dead.  Last year I got burned for going with Banks, so I'm switching it up this year and guessing Harington will be part of a major Game of Thrones award stampede.

Best Supporting Actress in a Drama Series

Emilia Clarke, Game of Thrones
Lena Headey, Game of Thrones
Maggie Smith, Downton Abbey
Maura Tierney, The Affair
Maisie Williams, Game of Thrones
Constance Zimmer, UnReal

The Lowdown: First off-congrats to the new names on this list (Williams and Zimmer being particularly surprising), as that's always tough for Emmy to pull off; they didn't even go with last year's victorious Uzo Aduba, meaning that we're guaranteed to have a newcomer...well, at least not a repeat as Maggie Smith has been a winner here before and sentiment could demand she take it again. However, as Smith is very unlikely to show up (she hasn't been to an American awards show since she was up for Gosford Park fourteen years ago), I think this is Headey's.  She's had a commanding story arch for a few years now (many figured she'd win last year), she's the most "actorly" choice on Game of Thrones (give or take Dinklage), and Emmy will probably want to have crowned her at least once.  Smith's my backup, but I'm thinking Cersei takes it.

Those are my guesses-we'll get into Comedy tomorrow, but in the meantime share your guesses (and hopes) in the drama categories for Sunday!

2015 Emmy Predictions: The Dramas

Yesterday, as you may recall, we started our three-part look at the Emmy Awards, deciding whether or not Modern Family had what it took to become a record-breaker.  We now move into the Drama categories, and for me, a little bit of trepidation, because I am not good at predicting my favorites to win awards, and yet two of my favorite series seem to be battling it out for the top category.  Since Lost went off the air, Mad Men and Game of Thrones have basically been battling it out over which one is my favorite, and somehow the Emmys, who usually side with shows I kind of wince at, are pitting the two against each other in the top race.  Let's start my misery there, shall we?

Best Drama Series

Better Call Saul
Downton Abbey
Game of Thrones
Homeland
House of Cards
Mad Men
Orange is the New Black

The Lowdown: Without Breaking Bad in the equation, we're left with a drama race that is largely wide-open.  All of these shows are either beloved by Emmy (Mad Men, Homeland), a spinoff of Breaking Bad, or are previous nominees still hunting for this Best Series trophy.  It's hard to know where the Breaking Bad support will go, particularly since Better Call Saul got solid reviews, but not the kind that sets this category on-fire.  I would normally guess Game of Thrones, but the controversy about its attitudes toward women, especially late in the series gained controversy and exacerbated some negative buzz about it which may have helped Mad Men's truncated final season.  Either way, this will be close.
My Prediction: Game of Thrones

Best Actor in a Drama Series

Kyle Chandler, Bloodline
Jeff Daniels, The Newsroom
Jon Hamm, Mad Men
Bod Odenkirk, Better Call Saul
Liev Schrieber, Ray Donovan
Kevin Spacey, House of Cards

The Lowdown: Another category where a double nomination could cost a final chance for an Emmy.  Like his pal Amy Poehler, Jon Hamm has a pretty decent chance in Best Comedy Guest Actor (though Bradley Whitford is also making a play there).  As a result, Hamm could well lose both or win both, but the ballots will be handed in before the Academy can prevent a split.  I do think the odds are with him, but if he falters there's a decent chance that either Kevin Spacey (who has never won an Emmy) or Bob Odenkirk (if Better Call Saul is stronger than I suspect) could gain in his absence.
My Prediction: Jon Hamm

Best Actress in a Drama Series

Claire Danes, Homeland
Viola Davis, How to Get Away with Murder
Taraji P. Henson, Empire
Tatiana Maslany, Orphan Black
Elisabeth Moss, Mad Men
Robin Wright, House of Cards

The Lowdown: With last year's winner Julianna Margulies nowhere to be seen, this is a three-way race between Robin Wright, who has been trying to win this award for a few years now, and two newcomers/Oscar nominees: Viola Davis and Taraji P. Henson.  Henson's show ended up being a bit of a nominations disappointment even if it was a ratings goldmine (though don't think that FOX, who happens to be hosting, isn't pushing hard to get at least one of their major nominations across the finish line to an actual win).  As a result, I suspect it's between Wright, who might be there for House of Cards (she recently took a Globe and people know she hasn't won yet), and Davis (who has a major hit and is kind of just having a moment in her career right now that is difficult to deny).  Either way, expect a great acceptance speech as these women know how to create a strong presence on-stage.
My Prediction: Viola Davis

Best Supporting Actor in a Drama Series

Jonathan Banks, Better Call Saul
Jim Carter, Downton Abbey
Alan Cumming, The Good Wife
Peter Dinklage, Game of Thrones
Michael Kelly, House of Cards
Ben Mendelsohn, Bloodline

The Lowdown: Last year's victor Aaron Paul is gone from this category, which means we'll likely get a new winner (Peter Dinklage has won before, but I doubt he lands for Game of Thrones in a season that didn't focus as much on him).  Jonathan Banks has to be considered the prohibitive frontrunner-this is the third series he's been nominated for as a regular (he also made it for Wiseguy and Breaking Bad), and he's considered by many to be the standout in Better Call Saul, a show that clearly is going to get at least one trophy this year.  If he doesn't make it, Michael Kelly's turn on House of Cards was considered a hit by critics and could surprise, but I wouldn't count on it.
My Prediction: Jonathan Banks

Best Supporting Actress in a Drama Series

Uzo Aduba, Orange is the New Black
Christine Baranski, The Good Wife
Emilia Clarke, Game of Thrones
Joanne Froggatt, Downton Abbey
Lena Headey, Game of Thrones
Christina Hendricks, Mad Men

The Lowdown: Possibly the most competitive category of the night, this could go a lot of different directions, though Emilia Clarke, Joanne Froggatt, and Christine Baranski should practice their "gracious loser" faces.  On the surface Uzo Aduba's turn on Orange is the New Black, which already has an Emmy (albeit in a different category) seems like a solid choice.  She's the standout on that series and it's a big show not to end up with a major award.  Still, it's hard to deny the Emmys have been stingy to the Mad Men actors, and like Jon Hamm his costar Christina Hendricks has been waiting and waiting and waiting.  And then, of course, there's Lena Headey who got a major moment this past season with her "walk of shame" which set off thinkpieces and social media alike, but almost everyone universally praised her performance.  It's genuinely a tossup, but I think I'm going to go against how I would vote and go instead with a head thought-choice here...
My Prediction: Uzo Aduba

And there we are-the drama nominees.  We'll get to the miniseries tomorrow, but first let's discuss these races-who are you cheering for?  Who are you thinking emerges victorious?  Share your thoughts in the comments!

Emmy Predictions: The Dramas

Today is the last day that Emmy ballots can be submitted, and since the nominations will be officially announced in two weeks (July 16th, to be exact), I figured in kicking off our week of mega-posting (every day is getting two posts at least, guaranteed), I thought it would be appropriate to start off the week with one of the more popular segments on the blog: predictions!  I keep hearing this year's contests are some of the closets in years.  Let's see if I agree (we'll start with the dramas):

Best Drama Series

1. Mad Men
2. House of Cards
3. Game of Thrones
4. Orange is the New Black
5. Empire
6. Better Call Saul
7. Downton Abbey

The Lowdown: In the first year of the seven-wide nominations (is this really necessary...though also is the random-number nominee list at the Oscars really necessary...the answer to both is no), we have a few shows that, regardless of their chances of winning are assured nominations (Mad Men, Game of Thrones, Orange is the New Black, and House of Cards).  Empire was a zeitgeist moment and more importantly was on a broadcast network at a time when they can't get critical acclaim for a drama to save their lives, so that's in, as is the successful spinoff Better Call Saul.  The last slot seems to be a battle between The Good Wife (which missed last year but has competed in the past), The Americans (which is always the bridesmaid), and Downton Abbey (a repeat nominee that has seen finer days).  I'm going with Downton since this is still the Emmys and it doesn't have to hit sixth place, but seventh to make it (it also sort of proves that 7-wide is unnecessary, as the Top 6 looks like a pretty respectable list).

Best Actor in a Drama

1. Jon Hamm (Mad Men)
2. Kevin Spacey (House of Cards)
3. Bob Odenkirk (Better Call Saul)
4. Terrence Howard (Empire)
5. Kyle Chandler (Bloodline)
6. Clive Owen (The Knick)

The Lowdown: The Emmy nominations are always broken out between the potential winners (in this case Hamm, Spacey, and Odenkirk) and the guys trying to land another nomination, likely in the process gaining 4-5 nominations and an eventual trophy, because Emmy loves to repeat.  As a result, I think that Kyle Chandler, who made it for years on Friday Night Lights, should be back again for Bloodline, while Terrence Howard/Clive Owen have the prestige of being an Oscar nominee now starring on a television series.  About the only one of the contenders trying to beat them out that I see potentially making it is Jeff Daniels, who was nominated last year (which at the Emmys always makes you a threat), but The Newsroom has faded so much that this seems like a rough sell.

Best Actress in a Drama

1. Viola Davis (How to Get Away with Murder)
2. Taraji P. Henson (Empire)
3. Robin Wright (House of Cards)
4. Julianna Margulies (The Good Wife)
5. Ruth Wilson (The Affair)
6. Claire Danes (Homeland)

The Lowdown: This is a genuine horse-race, in my opinion, while the other categories just have "upset potential."  Aside from the top three women, it seems like this race could go any number of ways.  In addition to Margulies, Wilson, and Danes, you also have last year's contenders Kerry Washington, Michelle Dockery, and Lizzy Caplan, as well as former nominees Vera Farmiga, Taylor Schilling, and Elisabeth Moss all clamoring for support.  My gut says they won't quite skip Margulies the year after she finally won (though some might view that as a career capper), Wilson just won the Golden Globe and women do better in this sort of stylized drama than men (hence no mention of Dominic West up-above), and Danes has never missed despite sketchiness regarding Homeland's quality.  If there's someone I'm trying to make room for but can't, it's Moss who may or may not gain from Mad Men's swan song season.

Best Supporting Actor in a Drama Series

1. Peter Dinklage (Game of Thrones)
2. Jonathan Banks (Better Call Saul)
3. Jon Voight (Ray Donovan)
4. Mandy Patinkin (Homeland)
5. Jim Carter (Downton Abbey)
6. John Slattery (Mad Men)

The Lowdown: This is where I become like those people who are forced to predict the Oscars even when they haven't seen the movies, because most of the major contenders in this race I have no idea the strength of their season and am relying on other factors (like previous nominations and strength-of-buzz) to make my call.  Considering that this field looks somewhat weak on paper, I'm going to keep not only the frontrunner for the trophy (Banks), but also last year's eligible nominees (Dinklage, Voight, Patinkin, and Carter).  For the final slot, I'm skipping Ben Mendehlson in Bloodline and Michael Kelly in House of Cards in favor of a former Emmy nominee who never won and probably had support even when he missed (ala Wendie Malick and Holland Taylor all of those years): John Slattery.

Best Supporting Actress in a Drama Series

1. Maggie Smith (Downton Abbey)
2. Christina Hendricks (Mad Men)
3. Uzo Aduba (Orange is the New Black)
4. Christine Baranski (The Good Wife)
5. Lorraine Toussaint (Orange is the New Black)
6. Lena Headey (Game of Thrones)

The Lowdown: The first four seem certain.  Three are Emmy titans and one is emerging as the "favorite" on her show and won an Emmy on her first try.  Lorraine Toussaint has gotten most of the plaudits for the latest season of Orange is the New Black, which should go a long way for her, particularly considering her role as a veteran character actress who has never made it before (hell, she could even win...witness Margo Martindale as an example).  The final nomination seems to be a three-way battle between two of last year's nominees (Lena Headey and Joanne Froggatt) and an Oscar-winning legend (Sissy Spacek).  Part of me feels like both Headey and Froggatt got in due to less competition than expected last year, and Spacek makes more sense, but Headey's "walk of shame" got a lot of really impressive press and it's not easy getting nominated for the first time in your show's fourth season when you've been there since the beginning.  So that makes me think Cersei will rise again.

Those are my predictions for Best Drama-do you agree, and if not, where did I make my mistakes?  And what names are you hoping to hear?  Share your thoughts in the comments!Bett

Emmy Predictions: The Dramas

We’ve hit the movies and the comedies, so with just one day left until a lot of Hollywood stars are either ecstatic or firing their agents, we’ll move into the five Drama categories.  As I’ve mentioned before, the higher the ranking, the more likely I think it is that someone will be nominated (not necessarily win, though).

Best Drama Series

1. Breaking Bad

2. True Detective

3. House of Cards

4. Game of Thrones

5. Mad Men

6. Downton Abbey

The Lowdown: This looks extremely familiar, because, well, it is.  The only show that I’m skipping from last year is Homeland, which has become a shadow of its former celebrated self.  I do feel like new blood could oust the aging Mad Men and Downton Abbey, but no show aside from True Detective seems like it could be elevated onto this list.  The Americans is more a critical than an audience fave (which matters with ratings-conscious Emmy) and The Good Wife missed last year (usually a death knell) and this category has been very resistant to network dramas.  I say that this is the lineup, though don’t be surprised if Downton or Mad Men become the surprise miss of the morning.

Winner?: I mean, Breaking Bad has milked that double season for all it’s worth.  True Detective could be a factor, but that seems more of a lead actor situation.  Walter White wins in his final showdown.

Best Actor in a Drama Series

1. Bryan Cranston, Breaking Bad

2. Matthew McConaughey, True Detective

3. Kevin Spacey, House of Cards

4. Woody Harrelson, True Detective

5. James Spader, The Blacklist

6. Jon Hamm, Mad Men

The Lowdown: Once again, prestige (a pair of Oscar winners) and love of their shows will cement the top four easily in place.  James Spader was once a major Emmy player for Boston Legal, and I suspect the ratings on this show will ensure him a nomination (perhaps I am underestimating it even for Best Series?).  The final slot is a showdown between previous winner Jeff Daniels and long-suffering loser Jon Hamm.  I’m going to go with Hamm because his show is more established with Emmy and didn’t get a gut-punch cancellation.  That said, Mad Men is clearly weakened going into this year, and I think at least one of its perennials will miss.

Winner?: This is going to be an amazing showdown between the recently crowned Oscar Best Actor and a longtime Emmy favorite retiring his iconic character.  I don’t dare predict who will win until I see how their shows fare in other categories, but this is going to be one for the ages.

Best Actress in a Drama Series

1. Robin Wright, House of Cards

2. Kerry Washington, Scandal

3. Julianna Margulies, The Good Wife

4. Claire Danes, Homeland

5. Elisabeth Moss, Mad Men

6. Tatiana Maslany, Orphan Black

The Lowdown: Occasionally getting snubbed when you were expected to get in has a HUGE effect the next year (see Sean Hayes for a good example), and I think that’s what Maslany is going to be this year.  Michelle Dockery for Downton Abbey or Lizzy Caplan for Masters of Sex or even Keri Russell in The Americans all would make more sense, but Orphan Black is a major part of pop culture right now and she’s easily a breakout star.  The rest of the women seem pretty set, though Moss could be vulnerable if Mad Men love completely falters.

Winner?: Margulies may have had one helluva a season, but I think this is a battle between Washington and Wright (Danes has slipped too far to win, though she’s got at least one more nomination in her before the sun sets on her series).  Washington is on the biggest show on network television right now if you go strictly on buzz, and I still think that she’ll win for this role, but the fact that she missed last year (when Scandal love seemed to peak) could mean Wright’s ice queen will enjoy this trophy.

Best Supporting Actor in a Drama Series

1. Aaron Paul, Breaking Bad

2. Peter Dinklage, Game of Thrones

3. Dean Norris, Breaking Bad

4. Jon Voight, Ray Donovan

5. Josh Charles, The Good Wife

6. Mandy Patinkin, Homeland

The Lowdown: I don’t watch Boardwalk Empire anymore, but it does appear that Bobby Cannavale is not in contention this year (I suspect his character may have been a one-season arc), so we’re left with only a handful of actors from last year that could be returning, chief amongst them Aaron Paul, Mandy Patinkin, and Peter Dinklage.  Dean Norris also seems to have gotten a lot of press for Breaking Bad and it’s hard to argue with an Oscar winner at the Emmys, so I think Jon Voight is probably going to be up here as well.  That leaves one last slot, and I think that Josh Charles major season on The Good Wife coupled with his nomination a few years ago for the same role will be the push he needs to take out someone like John Slattery in Mad Men or Kit Harington in Game of Thrones.

Winner?: Breaking Bad is going to be hard to beat, and Aaron Paul seems quite likely to pick up a third trophy for his final season on the show.  That being said, Dinklage has had a marvelous actorly showcase this season on Game of Thrones, and he has been favored by Emmy before-it could happen again.

Best Supporting Actress in a Drama Series

1. Anna Gunn, Breaking Bad

2. Maggie Smith, Downton Abbey

3. Christine Baranski, The Good Wife

4. Michelle Monaghan, True Detective

5. Christina Hendricks, Mad Men

6. Emilia Clarke, Game of Thrones

The Lowdown: Emmy likes to repeat-that’s the best way to make sense of this list.  While Gunn, Smith, and Baranski all seem pretty well-set (Baranski doesn’t have quite the heat she once did, but Emmy loves her to bits considering she has eleven nominations so far), the final three slots are a bit harder to sell.  I suspect we’ll see Monaghan (someone other than Harrelson/McConaughey need to score from that show), and I am going to pick Hendricks/Clarke for the final two slots because they managed to make it in last year in a tough competition.  Emmy could of course go with someone they once had the hots for like Archie Panjabi in The Good Wife or Joanne Froggatt in Downton Abbey or even someone outside the box like Bellamy Young for Scandal or Lena Headey for Game of Thrones, but my money is on Clarke/Hendricks for now.

Winner?: If Maggie Smith ever bothered to show up for one of these awards shows, I suspect they would call off the voting and just proclaim her the winner, but her absence makes it harder to vote for her.  I suspect Gunn will win her second trophy for her show’s final season, with Christina Hendricks continuing to stew over the fact that no actor from Mad Men will ever win an Emmy.

And there you have it folks-tune in tomorrow to see my thoughts on the Emmy roundup, but before we get there-which dramatic contenders are you rooting for?  Are you expecting?  Share in the comments!

Thoughts on House of Cards

I'm aware I'm late to the party here, but in a party I'm even later to, I don't have Netflix streaming.  I still have Netflix, but it's in the discs that come to my apartment; they aren't viewed on my computer. I use it to see obscure OVP films and not to watch random HBO and Showtime series.  Therefore, it wasn't until Christmas that I had access to a Netflix streaming, and I decided to indulge in one of the site's original series, House of Cards.

House of Cards on paper should be perfect for me.  I have always been enamored with both movie stars and with politics, and this series from David Fincher does both.  You have the eternally charismatic Kevin Spacey in the best role he's done since his late 1990's do-no-wrong period, as well as Robin Wright, Corey Stoll, and Kate Mara, all actors that I have enjoyed in some fashion in the past.  And then you have the intricacies of Washington, politics at its most vindictive and calculating, something that I pore through daily posts on Roll Call and The Hill in hopes of finding.

And yet, I wasn't impressed.  It wasn't the fault of certain devices in the show (I rather enjoyed the Kevin Spacey "fourth-wall-breaking"), but in other aspects of the series.  I would blame it on the binge viewing, but I have indulged in this practice in the past with no issue, most recently with USA's highly-addictive Suits.  Instead, it was a couple of other factors that caused me to wane in my interest, despite finishing the entire first season.

For starters, cable and in particular a website like Netflix hasn't figured out a way to react to audience opinion.  We live in an age where viewers can go on Twitter to spill on the latest developments on Scandal and Revenge and showrunners are able to know what visceral reactions the audience is having to a shift on the show.  Shows either are able to operate above this (HBO does this, where everything is filmed prior to the start of the season) or they fall under the weight of such pressure.  House of Cards, for example, would have gained from a little bit of audience reaction to certain characters when they were trying to breath out characters.  I'm months late to the season, but certainly someone had to complain about how the show seems to only really develop four characters despite nearly twenty having decent-sized roles throughout the year.  If you aren't one of the big four leads, you don't matter to the rest of the series, and none of the supporting actors are trying hard enough to distinguish themselves.  Perhaps with some audience interaction we would have gotten more from Christina or Rachel, both flawed but promising characters.

My biggest issues, though, were with the realism and the writing in the series.  The show knows how to put together a monologue (it's David Fincher, after all), and there's always a handsomeness to the show, but the entire plot is far too convenient and too contrived.  Are we really to believe that someone like Corey Stoll's Peter Russo was able to sustain a long career in Washington and politics with the drug issues he has (for those that argue, Trey Radel is in his first term, not multiple sessions in and ready to run for governor)?

Worse, though, is basically everyone that tangles with Frank Underwood.  Every series has their impenetrable leading man, the one who constantly soars while others falter, but haven't we moved beyond that with shows like Mad Men, where Don Draper can fail and continue to persist?  Frank Underwood regularly tussles with the Speaker of the House, President, Vice President, and White House Chief of Staff, all four of which are portrayed as absolute morons.  Let me tell you-even the most milquetoast of Chiefs of Staff wouldn't act so much as a secretary to the president, particularly in the face of the third highest-ranking House member.  The Majority Whip is an important post, but at the very least these two people would be equals, and Frank wouldn't treat her as his personal secretary.  The fact that Sakina Jaffrey is the only woman of color on the show and gets relegated in such a way when her character could be so much more is even more disappointing.

This destruction of facts caused me to not enjoy the show even when there were enjoyable moments.  My friend Pat frequently complains about the realism of tennis in the movies (he's a great tennis player/enthusiast), and I find that I'm that way with politics.  I have trouble enjoying the unparalleled success of someone like Frank Underwood when I have to compare it to real life where even the most outstanding of politicians couldn't get out of this many jams.  With this lack of realism, I found myself not only second-guessing the plot, but also some of the performances.

It's difficult, for example, not to compare Claire Underwood to Mad Men's Betty Draper (just to clarify, this is a compliment from this major January Jones as Betty fan) but as the series progresses this comparison becomes less and less favorable to Robin Wright.  While Betty was pushed and put into her situation by circumstance, Claire's actions, decisions, and demeanor all remain ice queen but unthawed.  There's so little hint to why she is so ambitious (she's Lady Macbeth without the need-to-succeed or a motive) and why she allows her marital Ashley Madison lifestyle.  When I saw the open marriage as centerpiece I was wildly intrigued (this is something we rarely see, even on Game of Thrones), but it went nowhere.  In a similar fashion, Kate Mara's newshound goes from ambitious-and-ruthless to girl-on-the-side, and then Harriet the Spy?  All with little to no reason, but that is this show's raison d'être.  It's all flash with no sense.

In fact, the only character and actor that truly embraces the show and becomes the standout is Corey Stoll.  His struggling congressman, up until the point where he crashes and burns again was the most interesting.  You could truly have built a show around his struggles with addiction as he attempted to move up the ladder parallel to Frank.  While the decision to kill him off (and have Frank turn the deadly key) was stunning and dramatic, it left me with little to no reason to see the second season.  I can handle a ruthless, heartless main character, but not one who goes unchallenged.

Top Ten Shows I Should Be Watching (But Am Not)

Tonight, the rest of the internet is about to explode with talk about the Breaking Bad series finale, and I'll be the first to admit I feel left out.  This is a show that under normal circumstances I would be obsessed with: it's on cable, it's a drama, it's filled with multi-season plots, it has an antihero protagonist, and it's a critical darling.  I love everything about it, but for some reason I never watched the show.

We all have that show, though, that we're certain we'd love if we gave it a shot, but for some reason never get around to watching.  Every Friday at breakfast my coworkers will discuss upcoming or recently aired television and without fail, someone (occasionally me) will say something along the lines of "I really need to start that show."  Even with the myriad of ways to get entertainment, there's always movies, television, books, theater, and restaurants that we just never get around to because there isn't time to do it all.  It's a cold, hard fact of life, and it's super depressing, but true.

But recently I've been doing the math and may dive into Netflix Instant again (it's gotten a LOT better since I cancelled my subscription) and in weighing the pro's and con's, I decided to make a list.  Below are the ten shows that I most wish I was watching, and haven't given into yet; we'll stick to only shows that are currently still on the air, though a list of shows that have finished their runs that I want to see will probably be coming later this week.

10. Louie (FX)

Number of Seasons I'm Behind: 3

Reason I Never Started: I know this is going to make me sound like an ignoramus, but standup comedy is one of my entertainment blind spots and aside from recognizing him from Parks and Rec I had never really heard of Louis CK before he broke out with this series.

Most Embarrassing Thing About Not Watching: This was the only Comedy Series nominated for the top Emmy last year that I don't watch.

Reason I'm Sure I'd Love It: Since his rise to fame, I have perused C.K's standup comedy and interviews, and he's delightful.  His SNL show was a joy and anyone that can give my beloved Melissa Leo such a plum role (I did see her clip) deserves a viewing.

Odds I'll Ever Give It a Shot: Solid-I usually cruise through comedies pretty quickly, and the seasons are cable series long.

9. Scandal (ABC)

Number of Seasons I'm Behind: 2

Reason I Never Started: About the only thing I can think of is the Shonda Rhimes factor-I am not a devotee of Grey's or Private Practice either.

Most Embarrassing Thing About Not Watching: As someone who is persistently harping about Hollywood's horrible record with hiring women of color for leading roles, I'm disappointed in myself that ABC actually has a genuine hit with an African-American woman and I'm not watching.

Reason I'm Sure I'd Love It: Political drama is catnip to me, and I adore Kerry Washington.

Odds I'll Ever Give it a Shot: 50/50.  If I join Netflix instant, all bets are off, as I love television and am perfectly content with binge viewing, even if I enjoy traditional viewing better (I've talked about the reasons why here).  However, the seasons are longer than the rest of the series in this list and what I have seen of Grey's I haven't really enjoyed.

8. Homeland (Showtime)

Number of Seasons I'm Behind: 2 (but three is starting tomorrow)

Reason I Never Started: I don't think I was getting Showtime when this started, so this is the rare solid excuse.  But I get it now and I have Showtime On Demand (or whatever their version of HBO Go is), so the excuses are running thin.

Most Embarrassing Thing About Not Watching: Seeing Homeland take the Emmy last year.  I HATE being left out of a major cultural event like that-missing the top Emmy nominees drives me crazy (in a similar way to not having seen a Best Picture nominee on Oscar nomination morning also drives me bonkers).

Reason I'm Sure I'd Love It: I'm actually not certain I would-no one in the cast really calls out to me in an obvious way.  But I feel like I should at least give it a shot, considering the acclaim the series has gathered.

Odds I'll Ever Give it a Shot: Not super.  I am still weighing whether I'm keeping Showtime (since I don't currently watch anything on the channel, even though I like having the option), and Homeland doesn't appear to be on Netflix Instant (someone correct me in the comments if I'm wrong).

7. Justified (FX)

Number of Seasons I'm Behind: 4

Reason I Never Started: I only recently jumped onto the FX train.  I have to come to find that they're a crasser, less prestigious HBO, but teaming with quality (even if I hate FXX).

Most Embarrassing Thing About Not Watching: Margo Martindale, one of the best working character actors, having the performance of her career and me not being there to recognize it.

Reason I'm Sure I'd Love It: Timothy Olyphant, Jeremy Davies, Walter Goggins, Margo Martindale-how could you not?

Odds I'll Ever Give it a Shot: Weak, for a couple of reasons.  From what I can tell, it's not available on Netflix Instant (again, comments section people or Netflix employees googling their company-Netflix isn't super user friendly until you're an actual user, and the more shows that are available, the more likely I'll join it and start Bechdel-ing or writing about the series, so wins for all!).  And with four seasons, that's a lot to catch up on through Netflix DVD's in the mail (I like to save the envelopes for movies) or buying the DVD's when they're on sale at Target.

6. The Newsroom (HBO)

Number of Seasons I'm Behind: 2

Reason I Never Started: The reviews were not kind when this show premiered, and I had a fairly full plate at the time.  The second season has gotten better reviews, which is heartening.

Most Embarrassing Thing About Not Watching: It's the only major series on HBO I don't watch aside from True Blood (which looks like it got terrible)-I like to be a completist.

Reason I'm Sured I'd Love It: Aaron Sorkin's name on a project regularly sparks my interest, and as a longtime voter for Jed Bartlett, the fact that he has a hit show again and I don't watch bugs the crap out of me.

Odds I'll Ever Give It a Shot: Really strong.  I'll probably catch this before they start the next season.

5. The Americans (FX)

Number of Seasons I'm Behind: 1

Reason I Never Started: I get a little bit nervous when shows look interesting to me but I'm afraid will bomb.  I was once burned by Pushing Daisies and am a little remote control-shy since.

Most Embarrassing Thing About Not Watching: That a show I almost started watching from the beginning became a hit and I wasn't there to claim I watched it from the beginning (this admission is a bit narcissistic, I'm aware).

Reason I'm Sure I'd Love It: A critically-acclaimed period drama starring two actors I really like but who are frequently miscast and I'm always disappointed that I don't get to see them in something stronger?  Always a good thing!

Odds I'll Ever Give it a Shot: Another show that doesn't seem like it's on Netflix Instant, but I kind of want to say it's on my DirecTV On Demand.  Either way-I might just buy the first season.  This is a show I want to give a try.  Probably before January.

4. Downton Abbey (PBS)

Number of Seasons I'm Behind: 4

Reason I Never Started: I didn't know it was on because otherwise Maggie Smith would have got me there.  Plus, let's all remember that no one expected this to be the freak hit that it was, so keep the judgmental glares for some of the other shows on this list.

Most Embarrassing Thing About Not Watching: Almost everyone I know watches this show.  I cannot even begin to tell you how often I hear about how I should watch this show-easily more than every show on this list combined.

Reason I'm Sure I'd Love It: Period costume soap opera with an Oscar-winning actress at its center?  Bloody awesome.

Odds I'll Ever Give it a Shot: I avoid spoilers like the plague, as I've said before, but unlike the other shows on this list, I think I know every major spoiler regarding this series, so I'm less inclined to give it a shot.  Plus, another show that is questionable for Netflix Instant.

3. House of Cards (Netflix)

Number of Seasons I'm Behind: 1

Reason I Never Started: Ha!  An actual reason-I don't have Netflix Instant!

Most Embarrassing Thing About Not Watching: I've gotten so into the concept of original online programming in the past year with my YouTube fascination, but I haven't experienced the Grand Teton of original programming: Netflix.  The fact that it was the first online-only show to score an Emmy Drama Series nomination only sticks the knife in deeper.

Reason I'm Sure I'd Love It: Washington power games and Kevin Spacey as a villain-yes sir!

Odds I'll Ever Give it a Shot: If I get Netflix Instant, it's a done deal.  If not, it's still a pretty good bet-the cast looks scrumptious and I am kind of on the hunt for another drama.

2. Orange is the New Black (Netflix)

Number of Seasons I'm Behind: 1

Reason I Never Started: Again, no Netflix Instant.  Plus, unlike House of Cards and Arrested Development, this series seemed to come relatively out of nowhere as a critical and cultural event.  As a result, more than those two series (which relied on an ardent fanbase and an Oscar winner), this series really showed Netflix as a power to be reckoned with.

Most Embarrassing Thing About Not Watching: I'm going to be at least one season behind again on a hip young show that I'm certain to love (see also Lena Dunham and Girls, which I DO watch, though didn't during its first season).

Reason I'm Sure I'd Love It: An ensemble dramedy with a primarily female cast?  I'm there.  Plus, with many of my regular sitcoms going off of the air either in the past or upcoming year, I need to start finding new shows to become involved with (another aspect of this exercise).

Odds I'll Ever Give it a Shot: Really, really strong (it might already be in my Netflix queue for discs).  If I watch Netflix Instant, it's likely the first show I investigate.

1. Breaking Bad (AMC)-I'm aware this is anticlimactic, but there's really no other choice.

Number of Season I'm Behind: 5

Reason I Never Started: No one really watched the show the first season, and it didn't catch me as strongly as Mad Men did.

Most Embarrassing Thing About Not Watching: Getting left out of the cultural phenomenon that is going to happen tonight on social media and around the Internet.

Reason I'm Sure I'd Love It: As I said above, it's on cable, it's a drama, it's filled with multi-season plots, it has an antihero protagonist, and it's a critical darling.

Odds I'll Ever Give it a Shot: Dicey.  I don't like watching series after they've fully run (no one wants to talk about them anymore, and that's a lot of the fun of television).  If I haven't seen it before year-end (when I give out my own personal awards for film and TV) or by next year's Emmys (the last significant cultural event Breaking Bad will be a part of), this goes from iffy to almost no chance.

And those are the shows I'm ashamed to say I don't watch.  Do you have any (I know you do!)?  If so, share in the comments.  Also, which of these shows should I investigate (let's keep everything spoiler free, people)?  I promise that if I get any sort of consensus in the comments I will give the show a shot and do a Bechdel Test write-up on the first season (incentive!).  Please share!