1. Mad Men
2. House of Cards
3. Game of Thrones
4. Orange is the New Black
5. Empire
6. Better Call Saul
7. Downton Abbey
The Lowdown: In the first year of the seven-wide nominations (is this really necessary...though also is the random-number nominee list at the Oscars really necessary...the answer to both is no), we have a few shows that, regardless of their chances of winning are assured nominations (Mad Men, Game of Thrones, Orange is the New Black, and House of Cards). Empire was a zeitgeist moment and more importantly was on a broadcast network at a time when they can't get critical acclaim for a drama to save their lives, so that's in, as is the successful spinoff Better Call Saul. The last slot seems to be a battle between The Good Wife (which missed last year but has competed in the past), The Americans (which is always the bridesmaid), and Downton Abbey (a repeat nominee that has seen finer days). I'm going with Downton since this is still the Emmys and it doesn't have to hit sixth place, but seventh to make it (it also sort of proves that 7-wide is unnecessary, as the Top 6 looks like a pretty respectable list).
1. Jon Hamm (Mad Men)
2. Kevin Spacey (House of Cards)
3. Bob Odenkirk (Better Call Saul)
4. Terrence Howard (Empire)
5. Kyle Chandler (Bloodline)
6. Clive Owen (The Knick)
The Lowdown: The Emmy nominations are always broken out between the potential winners (in this case Hamm, Spacey, and Odenkirk) and the guys trying to land another nomination, likely in the process gaining 4-5 nominations and an eventual trophy, because Emmy loves to repeat. As a result, I think that Kyle Chandler, who made it for years on Friday Night Lights, should be back again for Bloodline, while Terrence Howard/Clive Owen have the prestige of being an Oscar nominee now starring on a television series. About the only one of the contenders trying to beat them out that I see potentially making it is Jeff Daniels, who was nominated last year (which at the Emmys always makes you a threat), but The Newsroom has faded so much that this seems like a rough sell.
1. Viola Davis (How to Get Away with Murder)
2. Taraji P. Henson (Empire)
3. Robin Wright (House of Cards)
4. Julianna Margulies (The Good Wife)
5. Ruth Wilson (The Affair)
6. Claire Danes (Homeland)
The Lowdown: This is a genuine horse-race, in my opinion, while the other categories just have "upset potential." Aside from the top three women, it seems like this race could go any number of ways. In addition to Margulies, Wilson, and Danes, you also have last year's contenders Kerry Washington, Michelle Dockery, and Lizzy Caplan, as well as former nominees Vera Farmiga, Taylor Schilling, and Elisabeth Moss all clamoring for support. My gut says they won't quite skip Margulies the year after she finally won (though some might view that as a career capper), Wilson just won the Golden Globe and women do better in this sort of stylized drama than men (hence no mention of Dominic West up-above), and Danes has never missed despite sketchiness regarding Homeland's quality. If there's someone I'm trying to make room for but can't, it's Moss who may or may not gain from Mad Men's swan song season.
1. Peter Dinklage (Game of Thrones)
2. Jonathan Banks (Better Call Saul)
3. Jon Voight (Ray Donovan)
4. Mandy Patinkin (Homeland)
5. Jim Carter (Downton Abbey)
6. John Slattery (Mad Men)
The Lowdown: This is where I become like those people who are forced to predict the Oscars even when they haven't seen the movies, because most of the major contenders in this race I have no idea the strength of their season and am relying on other factors (like previous nominations and strength-of-buzz) to make my call. Considering that this field looks somewhat weak on paper, I'm going to keep not only the frontrunner for the trophy (Banks), but also last year's eligible nominees (Dinklage, Voight, Patinkin, and Carter). For the final slot, I'm skipping Ben Mendehlson in Bloodline and Michael Kelly in House of Cards in favor of a former Emmy nominee who never won and probably had support even when he missed (ala Wendie Malick and Holland Taylor all of those years): John Slattery.
1. Maggie Smith (Downton Abbey)
2. Christina Hendricks (Mad Men)
3. Uzo Aduba (Orange is the New Black)
4. Christine Baranski (The Good Wife)
5. Lorraine Toussaint (Orange is the New Black)
6. Lena Headey (Game of Thrones)
The Lowdown: The first four seem certain. Three are Emmy titans and one is emerging as the "favorite" on her show and won an Emmy on her first try. Lorraine Toussaint has gotten most of the plaudits for the latest season of Orange is the New Black, which should go a long way for her, particularly considering her role as a veteran character actress who has never made it before (hell, she could even win...witness Margo Martindale as an example). The final nomination seems to be a three-way battle between two of last year's nominees (Lena Headey and Joanne Froggatt) and an Oscar-winning legend (Sissy Spacek). Part of me feels like both Headey and Froggatt got in due to less competition than expected last year, and Spacek makes more sense, but Headey's "walk of shame" got a lot of really impressive press and it's not easy getting nominated for the first time in your show's fourth season when you've been there since the beginning. So that makes me think Cersei will rise again.
Those are my predictions for Best Drama-do you agree, and if not, where did I make my mistakes? And what names are you hoping to hear? Share your thoughts in the comments!Bett
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