What Will be the Next Billion Dollar Movie?

Earlier today, we did one of our annual start-of-the-year traditions, so now it's time to do a second: predicting the upcoming year's $1 billion movies.  With the quarantine exception year of 2020, every year since 2008 has had at least one movie that, at the global box office, made over $1 billion, an astronomical marker that guarantees a profit, and a stamp of approval from audiences.  In 2025, we had four movies that hit this marker: Zootopia 2, Avatar: Fire and Ash, Lilo & Stitch, and Ne Zha 2, the latter becoming the first film to make $1 billion that is not primarily in English, and it also was the highest-grossing film overall this year (technically Avatar 3 and Zootopia 2 are still shooting up the charts, but I can't see them beating Ne Zha 2).  No other film at the current box office will get close to hitting $1 billion (only one more movie, A Minecraft Movie, cracked $900 million), so I think we officially have four in 2025.

Each year I predict the five films most likely to cross this threshold (more on that in a second), and I did okay.  Zootopia and Avatar were both movies that I predicted, and I did mention Lilo, though I didn't quite catch Millennial nostalgia for the movie after Mufasa struggled at the box office (and the Disney live-action trend continues to wane).  Ne Zha 2 I will totally own I hadn't even heard of when it came out of nowhere, and so I don't really fault myself on that (you'll note I don't predict a Chinese film to be in contention below, but I suspect one will...it's just really hard to find a lot of hints at which franchises even have new movies, much less which might be in the realm, so just know that I'm confident another film will come close or exceed in 2025...I just can't tell which).  Of the three that I predicted, one was Jurassic World: Rebirth, which crossed the $800 million line so a solid bet, though nowhere near as strong as the films starring Chris Pratt in this franchise.  The other two were missteps.  I thought Tom Cruise nostalgia and the proper close to a series with Mission Impossible 8 was enough to get it going (perhaps if the movie had been good it would have helped?), but it didn't even turn a profit, and making even less was The Fantastic Four: The First Steps, which was one of several misfires from the MCU this year.  These were respectable guesses, but it also shows that audiences have become exhausted by these franchises.

Which brings us to our list, and some good news.  I think, for the first time since 2019, the box office has the potential for more than five $1 billion-dollar movies.  In fact, if it doesn't, we're looking at at least one major franchise headed to catastrophe.  Similar to previous years, I'm only going to predict five, but I will say that a year from now I deserve some shame if there's more than 5 billion-dollar movies, and I left one on the chair.  I think that we'll have a lot of headline winners (though I continue to worry about mid-tier movies that aren't horror breaking out...really excited to see stuff like The Housemaid & Anaconda get love, and am sending into the world that I want more of films that can have box office legs hitting the $100M mark again that don't have $100M budgets...films like The Devil Wears Prada 2, Verity, & Focker-in-Law, I know you're there, and would love for you to show up well too).

With that-here's my guesses (listed chronologically):

Honorable Mentions: As ever, I'll name check a few films below that might be options or dark horses, especially if the big $1 billion prediction clicks, but there are three movies that I feel deserve special treatment here because not only are they $1 billion contenders, they are ones I think probably are hitting $1 billion (or darn close).  The first is the most obvious: The Mandalorian and Grogu, the first Star Wars film in seven years, and part of a major TV franchise.  I'm not picking it because it feels like Star Wars light without being connected to the main Skywalker series, but nostalgia for it could be real, and I think waiting so long might have people turning out if it's good (for the record-I'll be there opening weekend, I'm pumped, and making me wait 7 years has actually primed me to see this).  Second, we have Minions 3, which is the seventh film from this franchise, and 5/6 of these movies have made over $900 million.  The reason I'm not listing it is because the last two were JUST shy, and I do wonder how much longer this franchise can milk this for what it's worth (but I could be wrong...I also predicted the last two & got screwed over so I'm trying a different tact).  And third, we have Moana, a movie I'm an idiot for not listing (and initially I did, but changed it last second), as the franchise is beloved, but am I the only person thinking this is "too soon" after a forgettable sequel?  I'm judging this in part by sitting next to a 9-year-old the first time I saw the trailer and she said "that's not Moana" when she came onscreen, and I think it's a bad sign they're hiding Dwayne Johnson from us...is this Lilo where it'll be crap and still make $1 billion, or was Lilo an aberration in a tired format?

The Super Mario Galaxy Movie

Release Date: April 3, 2026

Reasons Why It Will Hit $1 Billion: I mean, the biggest one?  The last movie did.  Not only did it hit it, it made $1.3 billion and was a gigantic hit that honestly I don't think a lot of people saw coming.  The recent trend toward established video game & toy IP (not just this, but also Barbie and Minecraft) being more reliable at the box office than superheroes has opened up a lot of gates, and this will be the biggest test if it's just a novelty or if it also is creating franchises.  The marketing so far has been smart, hinting at new characters like Rosalina and Bowser Jr, and this is based off of an equally popular game.  I suspect this will be a sugar rush opening weekend, and then it'll be a question of how well it can do internationally (and if it it's any good).

Reasons Why It Won't Hit $1 Billion: Some of the problems with surprise $1 billion movies is that they tend to struggle to duplicate with sequels because people only wanted them once.  Some good recent examples include Joker, Alice in Wonderland, and Captain Marvel, all of which had insane first numbers and then turned into nothing when people were like "I'm good-that was all I needed" on a second shot.  I do worry that's the case for Mario, who started a trend but hasn't had the same staying power that, say, a Barbie sequel might invite.

What It Means for the Rest of the Year: There's not a lot of established video game or toy IP this year that you might borrow from (2027's Zelda is a much better test), but you should be looking out for Masters of the Universe, which is reviving the He-Man franchise and is a big bet for the summer, and Resident Evil is getting a showy punch-up after the failure of 2021's Welcome to Raccoon City.  The biggest contender for it might be Jumanji 3, which might get bumped (details on it so far are slim, which makes me wonder how far along they are in production), but the last two films were gigantic, $800+ million movies (the first one was just shy of $1 billion), and is opening at Christmas which could be a good way to cash in (similar to 2025, studios are betting big on the holiday box office in 2026).

Toy Story 5

Release Date: 6/19/26

Reasons Why It Will Hit $1 Billion: Well, depending on how you count it, the last two both got $1 billion.  Past performance is one thing, but these movies are beloved.  Go to DisneyWorld and you'll see entire sections of the park dedicated to Woody & Buzz (Donald Duck can't even boast that, and he's been a staple for decades).  Pixar also seems intent on this being a big deal-sequels are a huge part of their game plan (Incredibles 3 and Coco 2 are both greenlit, and you gotta assume Inside Out 3 is just a matter of time away), so they are going to want their crown jewel to look shiny...

Reasons Why It Won't Hit $1 Billion: ...particularly since the last time Buzz was on the big-screen, it was an embarrassing catastrophe.  2022's Lightyear was critically-hazed, a financial flop, and became the first film in the franchise not to get an Oscar nomination of some sort.  Part of why I think they're bringing this movie back (other than greed) is to make up for tarnishing the legacy so much, though I am worried that this is another risk for Disney-Toy Story 4 was able to get past some of the "we don't need this" by holding up and feeling like a really beautiful sendoff to Woody...but how will they retcon that ending AND get the sort of sentimentality that has become a hallmark of this franchise without increasingly jaded audiences turning away from them?  Buzz's Tim Allen is back, but it's worth noting that Slinky Dog, Sarge the Army Man, and both the Potato Heads are all dead in real life...will audiences forgive that Pixar keeps reminding them that this isn't the movie they fell in love with?

What It Means for the Rest of the Year: You're going to note a shocking amount of Disney on this list (seriously-the Mouse House is owning the 2026 box office), but if you can believe it there's two other original films (Hexed and Hoppers) coming out next year from them as well.  It's hard not to wonder if the continued trend of Disney originals getting hung-out-to-dry (save for Elemental) will continue, or if we'll finally have the relief of discovering the next Disney franchise.  I would also mention that The Cat in the Hat is (other than Minions 3 of course) one of the few non-Disney animated films in 2026 to keep an eye on, particularly as 2018's The Grinch outperformed virtually all expectations (it made way more than you remember it did for a film that no one remembers).

The Odyssey

Release Date: 7/17/26

Reasons Why It Will Hit $1 Billion: My riskiest bet, particularly given I had the respectable net of Star Wars or Moana to rely upon, but this is for fun so why not get a little gutsy?  Christopher Nolan's last film, a biopic about the man who created the nuclear bomb, nearly made $1 billion, and this is WAY more in-line with what we've come to expect for a $1 billion movie (a starry action-adventure).  Nolan's film is huge-people are literally already buying tickets, and given the stature he has, if it's good it'll have the kind of word-of-mouth you can usually only get if you're James Cameron, enough to make $1 billion.  I'm pumped-I think this is going to be a big deal.

Reasons Why It Won't Hit $1 Billion: I mean, for starters, it's not based on established cinematic or video game IP...it's a thousands year old story about Greece.  But I think the bigger question is more if it will have international appeal.  Oppenheimer had a 66% share of its gross internationally (a respectable anomaly given the subject matter).  Given the potential for this domestically, if The Odyssey can pull that off, I think it will make it to $1 billion...but I could also see this being more of a domestic box office thing given it doesn't come with recognizable characters like most $1 billion movies do.

What It Means for the Rest of the Year: There's a lot of movies that are going for less conventional routes (i.e. not comic books & animation) this year.  You've got original SciFi epics like Project Hail Mary and Disclosure Day (both of which looks terrific), as well as the long-awaited Michael Jackson biopic Michael and the close to the Dune franchise (Dune: Part Three), as the last one made almost double its predecessor, and interest in the series continues to grow.  Also, we can't mention Oppenheimer without also mentioning Barbie, and like Christopher Nolan, Barbie director Greta Gerwig also has a follow-up this year in Narnia: The Magician's Nephew, which I'd have a lot more hope for it being a box office juggernaut (and $1 billion contender) IF the film was getting a proper theatrical release rather than just a 28-day trial before it's slapped onto Netflix.

Spider-Man: Brand New Day

Release Date: 7/31/26

Reasons Why It Will Hit $1 Billion: July promises to be a BIG month for Tom Holland given he's leading both of these films (will this be the closest together ever that someone made two $1 billion movies?), and we also have here (in my opinion) the surest $1 billion movie of the list.  Holland's last two endeavors as Spider-Man both made over $1 billion, and even as an insanely saturated character (he has his own accompanying animated franchise as well), there seems to be no stopping him.  Spider-Man is, over even Batman or Superman, the most consistently bankable superhero in movies today, and given that Holland is almost certainly closing out his time behind the mask after this (he'll be in his thirties by the time this is released), people will want to see how this ends.

Reasons Why It Won't Hit $1 Billion: I say this with all love and sincerity, if this movie doesn't hit $1 billion, the entire comic book genre has been torn to shreds in a way that it's basically impossible to imagine.  Even people who don't see comic book movies see the Spider-Man movies.

What It Means for the Rest of the Year: Probably nothing.  I will note that (in addition to the next film on this list) there are two superhero movies (here from DC) coming out this year (Supergirl and Clayface), and while neither should come close to $1 billion (if Superman couldn't, why would these?), both are worth keeping an eye on just to understand the health of the superhero genre after 2025 yielded no billion-dollar movies for either DC or Marvel despite quite a bit of trying.

Avengers: Doomsday

Release Date: 12/18/26

Reasons Why It Will Hit $1 Billion: Because Avengers is the only franchise in the history of the movies to go 4/4 in terms of hitting $1 billion at the global box office.  Harry Potter, Star Wars, Jurassic World, Toy Story...none of them have the perfect 4/4 batting average that the Avengers movies do.  And Disney knows it-they are trotting out not just the return of Robert Downey, Jr., but also "plucked from the dead" Chris Evans and a potential sendoff for Chris Hemsworth (wouldn't be super stunned if ScarJo has a cameo they're keeping secret too).  Everyone in America will be curious about this.

Reasons Why It Won't Hit $1 Billion: Because, with the very big exception of Spider-Man (which, honestly, is its own thing at this point), the entire post-Endgame plan for the MCU has been a critical and commercial failure of epic proportions.  Look at last year-there were three MCU films, and not only did none of them make more than $600 million, there's a decent argument to be made that none of them so much as made a profit.  Between lazy movies and toss-away TV shows, the 21st Century jewel in Disney's crown is increasingly at risk of being permanently tarnished.

What It Means for the Rest of the Year: No other movie makes sense to put next to Avengers: Doomsday.  No other movie has the stakes to perform the way it will need to perform, no other movie has more riding on its success.  It could easily be a $2 billion movie and a close to a gigantic year for Disney...or totally upend a two-decades long money-printing formula that will unceremoniously come to an end.

What Will Be the Next $1 Billion Movie?

We are continuing our brief "annual articles" run on the blog (where I'm taking a sabbatical from my hiatus to do five articles I really want to write, and then will go back into hibernation) with one of my absolute favorite articles to write annually: the $1 billion movie prediction.  Box office in 2024 was down 3% compared to 2023, which is honestly surprising given the number of tentpole franchises in 2023 (there were three Marvel films in 2023 compared to just one this year, for example) and so I thought it'd be a larger dip.  This was driven by larger-than-expected box office in North America (much of the downside was in China), and resulted in at least two $1 billion movies (Inside Out 2 and Deadpool & Wolverine) with Moana 2 almost certain to clear $1 billion sometime next week, giving us three movies in total to reach that milestone.

It has become an annual tradition on the blog for us to predict for the upcoming year which films are likeliest to hit $1 billion.  The first $1 billion movie came in 1997 with Titanic, and since 2008's The Dark Knight, every year (save for the pandemic-impacted year of 2020) has had at least one movie that crossed the threshold.  I actually did really well with predicting last time-I called both Inside Out 2 and Deadpool & Wolverine in my Top 5, and while I didn't predict Moana 2, to my credit it hadn't been announced yet (I have confidence that I would've guessed it in my Top 5 given the first one's success on Disney+).  Two of the other three contenders I guessed (Despicable Me 4 and Wicked) were enormous successes, and there's a decent chance Wicked will upset Dune 2 to get into the Top 5, meaning I'll have called 80% of the Top 5 (the fifth film I guessed, Joker 2, I definitely missed but then so did all of Hollywood in their assessment of that movie).

I have listed below the five films I think are most likely to make it to $1 billion, listed chronologically by their current release dates.  I have confidence that 2025 will have at least a couple of $1 billion movies (we've been averaging about 2.5 since the quarantine lifted, I don't see that changing), though I do wonder if we're ever going to totally get back to pre-pandemic theater returns or if 2019 might've been a high-water mark for ticket dollars.  Without further adieu, let's dive in!

Honorable Mention: I'll name-check a few contenders below that also should be in the running here, but two films that don't neatly fit into comparisons to the below films but deserve a shout-out in an article likes this are Minecraft and Wicked 2.  Minecraft is a global phenomenon movie in the vein of Mario and The Last of Us, both of which were gargantuan successes.  The trailers do not inspire confidence, but if this clicks, I would imagine that we're going to see a lot of people talking about video game movies the way we talked about comic book movies in the 2010's.  Wicked 2 could follow in the footsteps of Inside Out, Dune, and Moana, where an increased audience at home causes the movie to outgross its predecessor, but I have my doubts.  The second half of the musical is much darker than the first, and it won't have as much time to grow in only a year's time.  Both will probably be hits, but I don't think $1 billion hits which is why they aren't below.

Mission Impossible - The Final Reckoning

Release Date: May 23, 2025

Reasons It Will Hit $1 Billion: Tom Cruise showed in 2022 that he has what it takes to make a nostalgic throwback into a surprise $1 billion phenomenon in Top Gun: Maverick.  The final installment of the Mission Impossible franchise, which in some ways also feels like it could be the final action film in Cruise's career (he seems to be signaling this is the end of an era for the quintessential 1990's movie star) will have a lot of people turning in to see how he goes out.  Finality has been a draw in a universe where movie franchises never seem to end-Guardians of the Galaxy 3, for example, was able to hang on when other MCU films were faltering in large part due to people realizing it was the "last" movie in the franchise...could that be the case here?

Reasons It Won't Hit $1 Billion: For starters, none of the movies in the franchise have done this.  The closest that any has come is Fallout, which couldn't even hit $800 million, and was getting an extra push because it was at the height of the MoviePass craze.  This will need audience members who have largely eschewed the last movie in the franchise, which didn't even make $600 million.  Harrison Ford nostalgia wasn't enough to get people to Indiana Jones 5...can Tom Cruise nostalgia get them to Mission Impossible 8?

What It Could Mean for the Rest of the Year: There are several action-adventure franchise extensions out in 2025, with new movies in the Predator, Tron, Karate Kid, Naked Gun, and 28 Days series premiering later this year.  Mission Impossible is the biggest (by far) of those options, and so if it isn't making it, it's hard to see these having much cache. 

Jurassic World: Rebirth

Release Date: July 2, 2025

Reasons It Will Hit $1 Billion: I mean, all of the other ones did?  If you consider Jurassic World as its own series (separate from Jurassic Park) it's the only series ever to have all of its movies hit $1 billion.  People love dinosaurs, specifically in this franchise (others they largely eschew).  There's also not a lot of other really big blockbusters this year, and they cast global movie star Scarlett Johansson AND star-of-the-moment Jonathan Bailey as the leads.

Reasons It Won't Hit $1 Billion: Chris Pratt has left the franchise, and while the dinosaurs are the true stars, Pratt's box office prowess (even Garfield was a hit last year) is enviable, and not necessarily duplicative.  I think the bigger problem is that they continually churn out terrible movies on the memory of one perfect one...how long can that actually last?  The last one just BARELY made $1 billion.

What It Could Mean for the Rest of the Year: One of the biggest reasons I'm worried about the 2025 box office picture is that there's not a lot of films like Jurassic World: Rebirth this year.  Star Wars, Harry Potter, Fast & the Furious...we aren't seeing anything new from the most beloved franchises other than Jurassic World (and #5 on this list), which leaves little room for error if one of the big tentpoles crumble (particularly given there's not a lot of obvious contenders for *gasp* something original to succeed!).  As a result, if Jurassic World falters, it's less about a group of films that might matter and more that we might just be having a long year.

The Fantastic Four: First Steps

Release Date: July 25, 2025

Reasons It Will Hit $1 Billion: Deadpool becoming the first superhero film in three years to hit $1 billion proved that there's still juice in the can for the comic book genre even if it's not as consistently lucrative as it once was.  There are four major comic book movies coming out in 2025, none with the box office guarantee of uniting Hugh Jackman & Ryan Reynolds, but all with potential.  Of the four, my bet for the likeliest winner is Fantastic Four, which stars Pedro Pascal (who is coming off of the major successes of The Last of Us, The Mandalorian, and Gladiator II right now), and honestly feels like a Marvel bet that will work (i.e. this feels like one that Disney is putting so much attention into, I kind of get the vibes that it will be genuinely good).

Reasons It Won't Hit $1 Billion: Fantastic Four is something of a running joke in terms of quality, as every big-screen attempt at the franchise has failed in the past, and I say this with great sadness as it's my all-time favorite comic book series (I used to rush with my brother to buy editions of it at our local Pamida).  It's possible that people are over comic books, and even if they aren't, post-pandemic the biggest successes have been Spider-Man, Deadpool, & Batman at the box office...all more established as a fan favorite than the Fantastic Four.

What It Could Mean for the Rest of the Year: Hollywood takes a long time to catch a trend on the decline (just look at how long it took action films to fall out of fashion in the 1990's), but they will eventually catch it.  After the major failures of The Marvels, Madame Web, & Aquaman 2, it's hard not to see the writing on the wall-comic book movies need a hit (and not a guaranteed one like Deadpool 3).  Captain America 4, Thunderbolts, & Superman are also ambassadors (for the record, Superman, which had a well-received trailer, was my #6 entry for this list as I do think it has a lot of potential) of the genre, but if none of them click...are we going to start to see this fade from relevance?

Zootopia 2

Release Date: November 26, 2025

Reasons It Will Hit $1 Billion: The formula is simple-after Inside Out and Moana, getting an animated film from the mid-2010's, one that has been playing regularly on Disney+ screens, as well as still fresh enough for Gen Z to feel a nostalgia for it as one of their own formative movies, it makes sense that Disney would try for a third.  Zootopia is the only other movie of this time frame that could pull off this type of appeal, and unlike the other two, it makes the most sense for a sequel.  It's possible it might not just be a hit, but given its November release date, it might also end Disney's current drought with winning the Oscar for Animated Feature (if Inside Out 2 loses as expected, it'll be their longest ever).

Reasons It Won't Hit $1 Billion: Zootopia is well-loved, but it doesn't have the same lasting pop culture cache of Inside Out or (especially) Moana.  That's honestly the only thing I can think of though-this makes total sense as a greenlight, and were it not for the guarantee of the last film on this list, it'd be the one movie I was absolutely confident would make the $1 billion club.

What It Could Mean for the Rest of the Year: Disney got all three $1 billion movies last year (the first time ever that we've had 100% of the 3+ $1 billion movies from the same studio).  They've got other opportunities if people are back into their live-action fare (Mufasa won't hit $1 billion, but it'll paw past $500 million this weekend, and almost certainly $600 and maybe $700 million in the coming weeks after a slow start), as both Snow White and Lilo & Stitch are opportunities to revitalize that avenue.  Other animated movies like Elio and The Bad Guys 2 don't have the same calling-card that Zootopia 2 has, but I'm watching (and hopeful especially for Elio, the rare original thought from the Mouse House recently).

Avatar: Fire and Ash

Release Date: December 19, 2025

Reasons It Will Hit $1 Billion: Not only has the first two films crossed the $1 billion mark...they've also crossed the $2 billion mark.  Avatar is a guaranteed "must see in theaters" for audiences, given Cameron's groundbreaking special effects & his ability to bring a quality to his work that few other directors are able to maintain (he also is the only filmmaker who can convince lay audiences to wear 3-D glasses in mass, adding to his box office totals).  The movie could make less-than-half of what the last one made and still qualify for this list, so I'm absolutely confident we'll get at least one $1 billion movie in 2025.

Reasons It Won't Hit $1 Billion: If Avatar 3 doesn't hit $1 billion, the entire industry needs to unplug and reboot.  The only way I don't see this making at least $1 billion is if it wasn't released in 2025 and James Cameron delayed it again.

What It Could Mean for the Rest of the Year: Again, there's no comparison to Avatar.  I do wish that this was the end of the series, so that Cameron might have the chance to do at least one more original idea before he makes his own journey to Pandora (he's 70 and makes 1-2 movies a decade...I worry we might only get Avatar from him going forward), but nothing else in 2025 compares to this.

What If: Lost Edition

(If you've never seen the television series Lost from beginning to end, proceed with caution as spoilers abound)

As I mentioned earlier this week, I finished up a recent viewing of Lost, and while I could've just left it at a recap, I was feeling ambitious, and while I'm feeling ambitious I thought...why not do something a little wild to close the Lost chapter of the blog?  So we're going to combine franchises.  The What If TV series is one of the lesser-discussed aspects of the MCU, but if you look at my collection of comic books, you'll find that it is the most prominently-featured title.  That's because I loved the What If comic books as a kid.  Unlike the TV series, they were more-than-willing to play with stakes.  The comic series frequently will make characters you love into ones that you learn to hate, because it's a parallel universe, but the TV series, seeing only dollar signs at risk, doesn't play that way.  But there was potential here, particularly in a world like Lost where we have time travel, and multiple key character deaths that lead to a lot of very specific outcomes.  I know Daniel Faraday would warn me against such things, but I want to understand-what would happen if we could change the plot of the show?

I'm going to explore below ten very plausible shifts in the plot, and what would've happened as a result of them.  You will notice a few things missing.  First, I'm focusing on the entirety of the show, but given the long-term impact there's very little from the show's final two seasons in terms of set-up because there's not that much to run-on.  I think there's a world where, for example, Jack not breaking the Lighthouse mirrors might have given him more information, or letting Sayid die rather than become infected may have saved a lot more lives in total...but there's so little room to play with there.  I also don't list deaths that (in the larger run) aren't consequential to the plot of the show.  Boone, Shannon, & Juliet, specifically, don't really change the trajectory of the program.  The first two were on so little that it's hard to know how getting rid of them might've altered the future, and the latter would've just made Sawyer want to leave more, but I can't really think of anything in the final season that Sawyer would've done differently if Juliet was alive.  No, the ten things I have listed below are all things that I think would've actually changed the show's outcome if you shifted what happened, and so they're more fun to ponder.

1. What if...Hurley Had Remembered the Blanket?

Previously on Lost: As you may recall, in Season 2, Hurley wants to go on a romantic date with Libby, with a picnic on the beach.  However, Hurley forgets the blanket, which causes Libby to go back to the Hatch to retrieve them.  In the process, she is Michael's second murder victim when he kills her & Ana Lucia while breaking out Ben in exchange for Walt.

What Happened Next: In this scenario, we still have Ben out, Ana Lucia dead, and Michael tasked with bringing Kate, Sawyer, Jack, & Hurley to the Others in a trick.  Libby being alive & well throws a pretty big wrench into this plan, though.  First, Libby's death was the whole reason that Hurley went to the Others camp, as revenge for what they did to him.  Without that, it's hard to see a world where Hurley goes with Michael.  He wouldn't want to be avenged & Libby (knowing what a fragile state Hurley is in after the "Dave" episode), is going to fight back on that too.  It's entirely possible that Michael will either have to force Hurley to go (giving up his cover), or (more likely) he only takes the other three, in which case he might not get Walt back as Hurley is crucial so the castaways know that their people have been kidnapped.  We are also in a situation where if Libby lives, she knows Desmond (she gave him her boat), and we would have an opening into her very mysterious backstory, and establishing a clear connection to Charles Widmore as many Lost fans have wondered if she was his connection to the Oceanic 815 crash.

2. What if...Locke Didn't Blow Up the Hatch?

Previously on Lost: Completely devoid of his faith, while Ben destroyed his confidence & made him feel inferior to Jack, Locke decides that his destiny is to destroy the Hatch, rather than to push a button every 108 minutes.  Despite the protestations of Charlie, Desmond, & Mr. Eko, Locke succeeds in blowing up the Hatch, causing it to explode and triggering basically the entire rest of the show, including Locke's continued sense of self-discovery and doubt.

What Happened Next: So in this scenario, two things stand out to me as crucial.  First, the castaways never really used the Hatch for what it's most obvious use could be-they didn't use it as a safe zone.  In the coming season, the biggest issue for the castaways is that they don't have protection (think of the "Flaming Arrow Attack" in Season 5).  The Hatch is hard to break into, they have tons of guns, and it has shelter, a pantry, & running water; there's a real possibility that they could've used it in future seasons as a base camp that the Others would struggle to use against them.  Secondly, the Incident is probably impossible without the Hatch exploding, which would mean the entire team would stay in the 1970's indefinitely (which would totally throw off the sixth season to the point of not really having an ending to the show but would definitely result in Daniel & Juliet staying alive), and would result in the Man in Black theoretically destroying the world...unless the aged versions of themselves in 2004 decide to buy a ticket on Oceanic Flight 815 themselves, which would've been a completely crazy ending.

3. What if...Ana Lucia had killed Ben?

Previously on Lost: In season two, Ana Lucia spends a large amount of her time guarding Ben, who at that point is going by the guise of Henry & staying in the locked cell in the Hatch.  They have multiple encounters, some violent, and securing his freedom becomes crucial enough for the Others that they send in Michael, who ends up killing Ana Lucia.

What Happened Next: Given the demons she's working through, it's totally plausible that Ana Lucia, at some point in a violent rage, kills Ben, either by accident or on purpose, the consequences be damned.  This would be huge as Ben was an enormous factor in the final seasons of the show.  Without Ben, there's no one around who knows how to move the Island, so the Kahana crew get to the shore and either kill everyone on the Island (or the casataways kill them back...either way a lot is going down).  Walt & Michael are stuck on the Island because they have no bartering power, and the Others are listless without an obvious leader.  Potentially in this case Juliet is able to get off the Island before anything goes down (as the Hatch hasn't blown up yet), and honestly most of the incidents in the final season never actually happen.  It's worth noting that this isn't the only way Ben dies-had the castaways realized right away that Michael was lying, he probably is killed by Jack or John at that point...Ben escaping death was a huge part of the show, and he did it twice in his first season.

4. What if...They'd Gone Back to the Statue Right Away?

Previously on Lost: At the end of Season 2, when Michael is leading Kate, Jack, Hurley, & Sawyer through the jungle, there is a side adventure happening where Sayid, Sun, & Jin are on Desmond's boat, and are trying to navigate to find the Others.  During this time frame, they come across a giant statue of a foot with four toes on a beach.  Though this becomes a key supporting player later as we learn its connection to Jacob, none of these three ever actually talk about it again, and before we realize its connection to Jacob it's only referenced once more (during the time flashes when it's seen by Juliet, Sawyer, & Miles).

What Happened Next: This is one of the few times in the series I genuinely think they left a major plot gap because they didn't know what to do.  The statue is important because it's the home of Jacob.  Though Jacob is seemingly all-knowing, he does appear to be something of a mortal man (he eats, he can be killed), so there's a real possibility if they went to the statue again, they would've met him.  Whether or not Jacob could be trusted or not, imagine what a difference knowing who Jacob was would mean in Season 3, that he is a real person, and that Ben is faking his connection with him would've destroyed his relationship with the Others, and would've also changed the course of John's life.  In general, though, the lack of curiosity about the island itself (that they didn't explore at all-only Sayid even bothered to try) always felt weird to me.  What if there was a Holiday Inn on this island that they had totally missed?!?

5. What if Edward Mars had lived?

Previously on Lost: Edward Mars, for those who are wondering who I'm talking about, is the guy in the picture next to this question (makes sense).  In Season 1, and throughout the series in flashback, he is the FBI agent that is assigned to track down Kate, and is taking her back to LA and prison in the pilot episode.  He is clearly going to die from injuries sustained in the crash, but that is exacerbated when he is shot by Sawyer (at Kate's bequest), and Jack ends up euthanizing him.

What Happened Next: Obviously there's a world where Mars doesn't die, simply where he gets out of the plane crash with only some scrapes & bruises.  In this world, the biggest question is what happens to Kate's storyline.  I think Mars staying alive adds a dimension that honestly wasn't really on the show.  Jack was meant to be the morality police in the first season, but Mars (in flashback) is shown to be a more ruthless, authoritarian figure that honestly wouldn't be a thing until later (with someone like Ana Lucia).  He would've outed Kate as a murderer, making her initially a pariah, but I honestly think much of his problem would've been butting up against Sawyer & Jack, as one would be too criminal for him, and the latter being too moral in his attitude toward the Others and handling figures that disobeyed like Sawyer, Kate, & Locke.  I don't think Mars would've eventually made it to the end, as characters like this never survive long (he would've had no obvious allies), but he would've added an element to the story that definitely wasn't there in the first season.

6. What if Mr. Eko had lived?

Previously on Lost: Mr. Eko was one of the "Tailies" and while fans of the show hated some of the Tailies (Ana Lucia, Bernard had his detractors), pretty much everyone welcomed Mr. Eko into the fold.  The enigmatic former priest, whose back story led to one of Season 2's best episodes (The 23rd Psalm) was ultimately written out of the show early in Season 3, when real-life actor Adewale Akinnuoye-Agbaje wanted to be written out of the show, as he did not like living in Hawaii.

What Happened Next: The writers have been very clear that they had a five-season plan for Eko, so it's worth pondering what it might've been.  I suspect that Eko would've taken on some combination of roles from either Locke or Ben given this was already written.  It's easy to see Locke, a man constantly struggling with his faith, transferring some of his moments of doubt (or misguided certainty) onto Eko, an actual priest who struggled with his faith.  It also would've been easy for Ben, who was manipulated by the Man in Black into both killing Jacob AND following his orders for years, into transferring that power-of-persuasion to Eko, given that Eko thought the Smoke Monster was actually his brother Remy.  I would assume this would've coalesced his power over the Castaways faster, and maybe have made the Man in Black genuinely successful in getting off of the island.

7. What If Both Sides of the Plane Landed in the Same Spot?

Previously on Lost: A major part of Season 2 of Lost is that we find out that the tail section of the plane had some survivors.  Sawyer,  Michael, & Jin are trapped by them before they confirm that they are, in fact, who they say they are, and then they go across the jungle to rejoin the front-of-the-plane.  But, of course, there's the possibility that the plane doesn't split (but still crashes), and the Tailies are part of the original castaways the entire time.

What Happened Next: Weirdly, a lot of things shift with this move.  For starters, you get a few characters that live automatically here.  Cindy is harder to kidnap in this scenario, and Ethan probably never joins the castaways at all because Ben would be likelier to want to punish Goodwin than Ethan.  We also don't have Shannon dead in this scenario, because she was killed by Ana Lucia traipsing through the jungle.  Perhaps most importantly, it changes the dynamics of a few key figures.  Ana Lucia is granted less power here, which would mean that Nathan probably lives (and if he's a member of Charles Widmore's crew, we'd find out) since calmer heads like Jack & Sayid would prevail, and Libby & Hurley's relationship would start earlier.  I think it's also probable that the war with the Others comes much sooner, as all of the castaways together would be far more formidable against them.  Honestly-this speeds up pretty much every timeline...it's lucky for Widmore & the Others that this didn't happen as both of their plans become a problem in this scenario.

8. What if the Castaways Found The Pearl before finding The Swan?

Previously on Lost: The Pearl Station, which is an observation center where you can see all of the other stations on the island, is first discovered by Nikki & Paulo, but they don't go into it or discuss it with anyone else.  It is also walked over by Boone & Locke, but during that time frame Boone dies, which becomes the more pressing matter, and later that night Locke finally sees the light in the Hatch.  The castaways (in this case Locke & Mr. Eko) don't actually go into the Pearl station until late in season two, where it causes John to lose faith in the button itself.

What Happened Next: Here's the deal-this is maybe the biggest shift in the story of any of these questions because it likely leads to completely different stories for all involved.  For starters, let's assume that the actual discovery of the Pearl takes place with Locke & Boone, that they discover it before Boone goes into the Beechcraft.  In this scenario, Boone lives, adding a new element and ally for John for the rest of the series, and also the castaways learn about not only Desmond & the Flame (Mikhael's station), but if the cameras still work, the Tail section survivors as I would assume (it's hard to tell upon rewatch, but it'd be logical) that you could see into the Arrow from here.  This would give the castaways a vast upper-hand in the story.  They could retrieve the rest of the Oceanic survivors pretty quickly from the Arrow once they ascertained where it was, and know to look for both the Flame & the Swan before the Swan exploded, which would result in them being able to communicate with the outside world the same way the Others had been doing.  Keep in mind that this all happens after Ethan is dead, but before Walt is kidnapped, a rare gap in the story where they'd have the complete upper-hand over Ben without realizing it.

9. What if the Writers Never Went on Strike?

Previously on Lost: Season 4 of Lost was considerably shorter than the previous seasons.  This was both by design (from my understanding, they had already negotiated with the series' creators that there would be less episodes than the previous three seasons), and because of the 2007-08 writer's strike that caused the season to be trimmed.  The original 16 episodes were shortened to a 13 episode run, which means for fans of Lost, they were unable to see the three episodes that were cut from the series.

What Happened Next: In terms of practical impact, there's nothing really happening here-the Lost main plot from my understanding was just moved up, rather than altered dramatically as a result of the cuts (this is not the same thing as the alleged inclusion of a volcano explosion in Season 6, which was cut because ABC wouldn't approve the budget).  Some will argue that they were cheated out of only two episodes due to the studios not paying the writers enough, though I doubt that (I would assume "There's No Place Like Home" would've just been shorter, rather than getting an extra hour of runtime like what happened in reality).  The show's creators have never outright stated exactly how they would've planned these three episodes, but the consensus from interviews/panel discussions is that we would've gotten a Charlotte-centric episode, one that talked about her background, and an additional Ben-centric episode that would've been focused on more of Ben's personal life, including the reappearances of both Harper & Annie, two Others that felt like they didn't have resolution on the Island.  The third episode's central character isn't clear, but it seems to have either been focused on Michael & Libby (who both had small roles in Season 4) coming to terms with Libby's death and/or Danielle & Alex Rousseau having some sort of reunion (possibly in the Ben-centric episode).  Here's the deal-none of this really impacts the larger plot, but in all of these cases they are answers to questions that were clearly glossed over on the show, and it would've been nice (especially with Annie & Charlotte) to get some answers.  So it doesn't change the plot, but it does change the show and provide some of the rare questions they truly left unanswered from the series.

10. What if the Oceanic Six Hadn't Returned?

Previously on Lost: When the Island disappears, there were six survivors of Oceanic 815 (Jack, Kate, Sun, Hurley, Sayid, & Aaron), along with Desmond & Frank, that lived and were proclaimed "the Oceanic Six" by the press.  All six of these figures during Seasons 4 & 5 were seen back in their real lives, but in many cases (with Jack especially), they struggled to survive, and had a need to eventually go back to the island.  In the end, five of them (save for Aaron) returned to the Island, along with Ben & Ilana, and set off the events of Season 6.

What Happened Next: There's by my estimation two really big variables that could've happened here that might've changed the course of the Oceanic 6.  The most obvious one is if it'd been the Oceanic 7.  A few minutes of delay, and Jin would've been on that helicopter, and Sun & Jin both make it back.  It's hard to imagine the two of them returning for the rest of the people they left behind in that scenario given they have a child.  The second is Kate-at that point in the story, Kate could've been pregnant with Sawyer's baby (they even hint, to a degree, that this is the case at the beginning of "Eggtown"), just like Sun had gotten pregnant...a pregnant Kate would've made the Aaron story impossible (and quite frankly, would've made her trial scenes more believable), but she almost certainly doesn't leave to go back.  Let's keep in mind that Hurley had to be prodded by Jacob to return, and Sayid does not return of his own accord (he's arrested and brought back by Ilana against his will).  Without the true Oceanic Six...would they have even crashed the Ajira flight?  Then again, as we found out with Desmond, if the Island wants you back...it'll find a way to get you back.  Perhaps a pregnant Kate or a reunited Jin & Sun would've still been on that plane because that's what fate had decided.

Is this What the Marvel Decline Looks Like?

Recently, I got onto a little tear, and sailed through She-Hulk: Attorney at Law on Disney+.  She-Hulk is the latest Marvel television series on Disney+ and while I'm not done with all of the series (I also recently caught up on What If, but haven't done Moon Knight or Ms. Marvel yet), it was striking to me for a variety of reasons.  While I saw it several months after it initially aired (more in a second), it was genuinely fun.  Tatiana Maslany was a blast in the lead role, and it leaned into the concept of a television show in a way that most of the MCU series (save WandaVision) have not.  It was funny, not a sitcom but more something in-line with Ally McBeal, but with superpowers.  Unlike most of the series, it wouldn't work as a movie-it only functions within an episodic nature.  The writing was smart & I generally liked the meta angles (the Tucker Carlson-esque figures made total sense in the MCU).  And while the special effects aren't great, the special effects in most Marvel properties in the past few years have not been great-this isn't really something MCU fans can complain about just one property on anymore.

What struck me about it, though, was this was the first Marvel property all year that I genuinely enjoyed, and I suspect I am not alone in terms of being overall disappointed with the MCU this past year.  None of the shows this year (Moon Knight, Ms. Marvel or She-Hulk) captured the cultural zeigeist in the way that WandaVision, Falcon & the Winter Soldier, or Loki did, despite Ms. Marvel in particular being one of the best-reviewed MCU shows in a while.  It's very hard to trust viewership numbers from streamers, but there seems to be consensus that none of these properties approached something like Loki, and save for Moon Knight, they all under-perfomed most of the 2021 shows.

This was true of the movies too, which are easier to track.  Black Panther: Wakanda Forever and Thor: Love & Thunder underperformed their previous movies, in Black Panther's case by nearly $500 million.  It's easy to say "Covid movie theaters" but let's not forget that Top Gun: Maverick and Avatar: The Way of Water got people into seats this past year, and Spider-Man: No Way Home was the sort of movie you had to see in theaters.  The only film that clearly out-performed its predecessor was Dr. Strange 2, but in that film's case it was A) coasting off of the total high of the ending of Spider-Man and 2) still couldn't get to $1 billion globally.  And while they were all critically-accepted, none of them felt like a critical hosanna like Black Panther's original movie (Angela Bassett might win an Oscar for this film, but that's less to do with the movie and more to do with Bassett).

Part of this feels like the sheen genuinely starting to wear off the seemingly impenetrable Marvel machine.  The series still has acolytes and makes gobs of money (there hasn't been a true "flop" in the franchise in the way that DC experienced with Black Adam this year), but when was the last time that casual fans were genuinely excited about a Marvel property  I had a friend recently refer to it as "on in the background" television, which it kind of is.  It's clear people are opting to watch the movies on Disney+, and while that's not necessarily the worst thing for Disney (which makes a lot from this subscription service), it's nowhere near the kind of bank they used to make when everyone in the world needed to see the latest Avengers movie.  

The sheen is gone, and looking at the year ahead (new heroes, franchises clearly ending, but little indication that we're building toward anything other than more branches of the MCU rather than something big like the Infinity Saga), it's hard to imagine that 2023 will be better for it.  Remember, when WandaVision premiered, it was the equivalent of something like White Lotus or Severance or Mare of Easttown...everyone in the country was tuning in & discussing it on social media.  Star Wars doesn't have this problem-both Obi-Wan and Andor were a big deal with the zeitgeist & social media.  None of the new MCU shows have caught that fire, and the movies look cheaply made and repetitive.  Short of the upcoming actual Avengers movies or finding a way to fold in the X-Men (which they kind of already did with Dr. Strange), it's hard to see how they recapture that fire without genuinely messing with the formulaic approach to the now deeply oversaturated superhero market.

What Will Be the Next Billion Dollar Movie?

Last year, I did an article discussing five films that were scheduled to come out in 2022, and I asked the question "what will be the next billion dollar movie?"  Spider-Man: No Way Home had become the first film in two years to cross that threshold worldwide, and indeed, at that time only 48 films had ever crossed that threshold, which had started to become common immediately before the pandemic (in 2019, nine films alone were added to that list).  Of the five films that I guessed might hit this marker, two of them did (Avatar: The Way of Water and Jurassic World: Dominion), while the others fell short but were still wildly successful (The Batman, Dr. Strange and the Multiverse of Madness, & Minions: The Rise of Gru), all making the Top 7 and both Dr. Strange and Minions getting north of $900 million (i.e. just shy).  The big surprise of the year was Top Gun: Maverick, which was a colossal hit, making nearly $1.5 billion, and surpassing the expectations of pretty much everyone.  

Other films this past year saw less impressive totals.  Disney/Pixar animation, which makes up seven of the now 51 films that are in the Top 10 (I'm counting the 2019 Lion King here as it's animated even if it's "live-action"), saw either disappointments (Lightyear) or total busts (Strange World) at the box office, and while you could hardly call the grosses of films like Thor: Love and Thunder, Black Adam, and Fantastic Beasts: The Secrets of Dumbledore small, they are nowhere near what previous features from the MCU/DCEU/Harry Potter universe have put forth.

As we look ahead to 2023, I'm keeping all of this in mind as I put forth the five films I think are the most likely to hit $1 billion this year.  This year isn't quite as guaranteed as last year-there was virtually no way Avatar and Jurassic World weren't hitting the number (though it has to be said that Jurassic World cut it very close, a disproportionately large foreign box office carried it across the threshold but domestic interest in that franchise rapidly has dwindle).  For starters, China has been a very difficult box office for a lot of major releases, specifically comic book films.  No MCU film has been released in China since Spider-Man: Far From Home, which almost certainly cost Dr. Strange 2 its distinction as a $1 billion movie, and with a stunning eight films coming out from the DCEU/MCU houses this year (i.e. taking up most of the blockbuster oxygen), if they can't fix the standoff with China, it's going to make it a lot harder to get to $1 billion.

So below I am going to list the five films I think are the most likely to get to $1 billion of the currently scheduled 2023 releases, and what each of these might be able to help get other films to $1 billion.  As Top Gun: Maverick proved, there's always the potential for a film to become a global phenomenon and surprise...conversely, as Black Adam and Thor: Love and Thunder showed, there are no guarantees when it comes to the box office in a post-Covid world.  The films are listed chronologically by currently scheduled release date.

Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3

Release Date: 5/5/23

Reasons It Will Hit $1 Billion: I've gotta list a Marvel movie-there's five of them next year (Sony's still Marvel for those trying to correct me), and ten of the 51 films that have hit $1 billion are Marvel movies-given those odds, I would look silly not highlighting at least one option here.  Of the four, I feel the most confident in Guardians, whose last installment six years ago grossed $863 million, so a billion dollars is not out of the question here.  Disney has invested heavily in the franchise, featuring them in the Thor and Avengers movies in a major way, as well as giving them their own Christmas special.  It's also almost certain to the be the most consequential movie of the year for the MCU-there's no fourth movie, and a lot of rumors that someone will die in this film, and it could be a sendoff for all of the characters.  All of that should add up to butts in seats opening weekend.

Reasons It Won't Hit $1 Billion: Black Panther was one of the most anticipated films of the year, and it couldn't sustain the $1 billion status the first movie reached, in fact it's almost $500 million short of what the last movie hit.  Thor came in $90 million short of its predecessor, and while Dr. Strange outdid its first outing by $300 million (impressive), it did so off the heals of a major Spider-Man hit last year (and the return of Wanda after the massive pop culture series WandaVision)...it was playing with a loaded deck & it still couldn't reach $1 billion.  Honestly, I'm curious what it's going to take for an "average" Marvel film (i.e. not an Avengers or Spider-Man) to get $1 billion if China won't help the MCU.

What It Could Mean for the Rest of the Year: As I said, there's four more Marvel movies this year, three from the MCU (Ant-Man 3, The Marvels, Kraven the Hunter) and one from Sony (Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse).  If Guardians can't clear $1 billion, I doubt any of these movies will be able to, and we might have to wait until 2025 when there's the next Avengers film to clear that marker.  If Guardians does, though, or if any of these films can get a release date in China, watch this space.

The Little Mermaid

Release Date: 5/26/23

Reasons It Will Hit $1 Billion: This might surprise some of you, but Beauty and the Beast, Aladdin, and The Lion King all passed the $1 billion mark, the latter two doing so largely based on enormous box office from international audiences.  Of the original four Disney Renaissance quartet, the only one remaining is The Little Mermaid, which comes out later this year.  Expect Disney, who owes their existence to this movie (and also is running out of A+ properties to reboot into live-action films) to go all-out on this one, particularly considering they got a proper movie star (Melissa McCarthy) to play the part of Ursula, and they are getting Memorial Day weekend, one of the best box office weekends of the year, for the release.

Reasons It Won't Hit $1 Billion: A couple of reasons.  First, Disney has done serious damage to its brand with the Disney+ releases of not just Pixar movies, but also live-action gold mines like Hocus Pocus 2 and Disenchanted.  It's hard to tell if audiences will be like "I'll see it on Disney+," particularly for a film that they already know by heart.  After all, the last Disney live-action movie (Pinocchio) was an exclusive on the platform, and Cruella (which had great reviews & a big star) underwhelmed at the box office.  I'm also curious to see how the Republican uproar over there being a Black Ariel actually impacts box office-I'm guessing it'll be negligible, but if you're trying to get to $1 billion (rather than just being a hit), it could be something to watch.

What It Could Mean for the Rest of the Year: Disney had a rough box office for its children's/family fare in 2021-22.  If a guaranteed hit like The Little Mermaid doesn't connect, how do we expect something like Elemental or Wish to do well?  

Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny

Release Date: 6/30/23

Reasons It Will Hit $1 Billion: I honestly don't think any of these films are "guaranteed" $1 billion in the way that Avatar and Jurassic World were last year.  But the closest you get to a guarantee might be Indiana Jones 5, which will surely be Harrison Ford's final bow with the hero, and if Ford is to be believed, the final movie we'll ever get from the franchise.  The last film made $790 million, but did so in 2008 (adjusted for inflation, that'd be north of $1 billion, and if Top Gun: Maverick taught us anything, it's that a legacy sequel with tons of nostalgia starring a legendary movie star is a recipe for success at the box office.

Reasons It Won't Hit $1 Billion: Here's the deal-I think Indiana Jones (which I suspect will make it into Chinese markets), will hit $1 billion if it's good.  I personally think all four of the films that have been released are thumbs up movies, but there's a clear difference between Raiders/Last Crusade and Temple of Doom/Crystal Skull.  If this film is going to be what we want it to be (i.e. $1 billion hit) it's going to have to be a genuinely great movie.  This is a movie most loyal moviegoers will hit regardless (I expect $100+ million opening weekend), but if you want to get casual moviegoers in the way Top Gun did, you need the movie to be truly good.  Spielberg & Ford are capable of it, but I am curious to see if they get there.

What It Could Mean for the Rest of the Year: There's honestly not a lot of legacy/long-standing sequels this year that are clear box office prizes.  Transformers, Ghostbusters, and Hunger Games all have movies out that will be big deals, but Transformers hasn't hit $1 billion in a while, and the latter two never have.  I struggle to see any of them approaching that summit if Indiana Jones can't.

Mission Impossible: Dead Reckoning, Part 1

Release Date: 7/14/23

Reasons It Will Hit $1 Billion: Here's the deal, I'm not just adding this because Tom Cruise proved last year that he can hit $1 billion largely on his own cache (though that's part of it).  But what I am adding it for is that the franchise clearly has gained fans in the past few installments, largely by making the movies consistently more impressive & using better, stronger visuals.  Those two things combined has me curious how this will play out.  I hate the name (just give it two different names for Dead Reckoning...people will get over if it ends in a cliffhanger), but think this will outdo the last film, which was the highest-grossing in the series at $790 million worldwide in 2018.  Could Cruise get back-to-back $1 billion hits in separate franchises?

Reasons It Won't Hit $1 Billion: No film in this series has made it past even $800 million, and unlike Top Gun, there have been lots of opportunities as this is the seventh film in the series.  The movie doesn't have the same crossover appeal that you'd expect from Top Gun: Maverick (there's rarely a particularly romantic love story) or an MCU film (the movies are a bit more intellectual than you'd get for a comic book film...not a slam-Mission Impossible kind of loves its own convolution when it's at its worst).  And while Cruise might be box office insurance, no actor can consistently command $1 billion at the box office, only characters like Luke Skywalker and Anna & Elsa can do that.

What It Could Mean for the Rest of the Year: There's not a lot of similar films to Mission Impossible coming out this year.  Fast X has potential, but the last two installments of the series couldn't pass $1 billion and it might indicate that its fans have started to tire of a franchise that is more noted for offscreen drama than onscreen.  Dune will surely outgross its last film with HBO Max seeming to not impact box office anymore, but the last movie only made $400 million-that's a tall leap to get to $1 billion even if getting to $600+ million might be a good way to have spinoffs of the franchise.

Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom

Release Date: 12/25/23

Reasons It Will Hit $1 Billion: Because it's one of only two films on this list to be a direct sequel to a $1 billion film; technically The Marvels qualifies as a direct sequel to a $1 billion franchise hit, but antipathy toward Larson's character & the fact that the first one came out between Avengers 3 & 4 (when MCU intrigue was at its peak, and Captain Marvel promised some answers to how Endgame would turn out) mean I'm less bullish on that one equalling its predecessor.  But Aquaman-there's little reason to indicate this wouldn't be a big deal this Christmas.  It's supposed to be the sendoff not only to Jason Momoa as the title character, but also (according to online rumors) the final appearance of Ben Affleck's Batman and this could be the final film, period, of the DCEU, which will add an extra level of fan push to see it in theaters after 16 movies.

Reasons It Won't Hit $1 Billion: It's possible that people just don't care about the DCEU anymore.  With the specific exception of Aquaman, no film in the series has ever made $1 billion, and no film since then has even cleared $500 million.  Antipathy toward the Wonder Woman sequel and a lack of investment thanks to big-name stars like Affleck, Gal Gadot, & Henry Cavill all leaving the franchise has me wondering if people will even care about the sendoff...but I will say, after Indiana Jones, this is the one that I think will be my safest bet for $1 billion if it's as well-received as its predecessor.

What It Could Mean for the Rest of the Year: Though The Batman was a hit last year, I struggle to see a way that Aquaman will have much of a halo effect on the rest of the DCEU releases.  Shazam: Fury of the Gods is following a surprise hit, but I wonder how much affinity people will have for such a silly film in the otherwise dour series, and both The Flash (with its deeply problematic leading man) and Blue Beetle (with an unknown star, a little known comic book character...if The Rock couldn't launch a franchise, how will this movie fare?).  I sense comic movie burnout in general is starting to set in, but it's hitting harder on the DC side of the page, especially if Aquman can't even get $1 billion.

Oscar Race 2022: Visual Effects Shortlist?

I stopped writing reviews for in theater films on the blog primarily because I ran out of time & was over-extending myself (this blog is something I love doing, but it's also a one-man operation in a world where I have to do a lot of things by myself & admitting your limitations is healthy).  That doesn't mean I don't miss it sometimes, and definitely miss conversations about the film season & the Oscar race.  Today we're going to change that up a bit by looking at one of my favorite categories at the Oscars (Visual Effects) and where it stands as we head into the final weeks of the Oscar season.

VFX is one of the best categories for a couple of reasons.  For starters, the rules of this category are a bit different than other fields.  Box office matters here more than most, and while it values Best Picture nominees it doesn't require them, and everyone has kind of a different definition of what works & what is important.  Sequels are good...except when they aren't.  Some years they are begging for CGI & other years it can be too garish or overdone because that's what everyone brought to the party.  And for a category about the cultural zeitgeist, in recent years Oscar has gotten choosier, letting monster hits like Star Wars: The Force Awakens and Avengers: Infinity War lose to (by comparison) arthouse flicks like Ex Machina and First Man.  This year, because as we're going to talk through, there's one film that has had this Oscar lined up for nearly the entirety of its production, there's more room for curiosity-strange things happen when there are four nominees that are for sure going to lose.  I'm going to walk through the state of the race, and at the end, I'll predict not only the films I think are currently situated for the Top 5, but also the ten films I think are most likely going to make the shortlist (which, as you'll see, is also its own prediction model).

The Locks

Let's get two movies out of the way first & foremost, as really there are a dozen or so movies competing for three slots.  Though it hasn't even opened yet, Avatar: The Way of Water is not only going to be nominated here, but it's also going to win.  James Cameron movies have an unparalleled history with this category.  Though his first two movies (Piranha II and The Terminator) were left out of the conversation (weirdly the original Terminator didn't even make it for the shortlist), since 1986's Aliens, Cameron has not only been nominated for every movie he's directed, with the exception of 1994's True Lies (which was beaten by Oscar juggernaut Forrest Gump) he's won for every single one of his films.  Avatar, unless it is the most spectacular disappointment of the decade, will win this hands down.

The other movie I feel confident will make it is Top Gun: Maverick.  In a bleak year for the film industry, Top Gun stands out as one of the true unqualified successes of 2022.  Its effects are mostly practical, and in a different year I'd wager it'd have a tougher time getting into this category given how it pushed against CGI so hard (it'd be easy to see the visual effects branch not wanting to celebrate a movie that goes against a lot of their modern business model).  But given the film's importance to the industry, it's impossible to imagine them snubbing it in a category it was made for; it might struggle in something like Best Actor (though I think Cruise getting nominated is a real possibility), but it's not missing here.  These are our two locks.

Comic Book Movies

Comic book movies basically own the modern movie landscape, and have since at least the mid-aughts.  Marvel has only had two years since 2008's Iron Man (2011 & 2015) where it didn't get a nomination, and while DCEU doesn't have that same cache, the one franchise that does do well with Oscar is Batman, who did have a movie much earlier this season.

In terms of a nomination, I think three films stand out, and honestly while I'm confident at least two make it (possibly all three do), I can't say with certainty any of them are a lock.  Black Panther: Wakanda Forever has recency bias, which is going to help it, and as one of the year's better-reviewed comic book films, it could make it, but its predecessor, which did much better with Oscar (or at least it will have) didn't get in for VFX.  Dr. Strange has showier effects, though it's hard to say if they're better (I'm going to be honest-as a rule I find the MCU films to be a bit of a miss in terms of VFX as there's a plastic sameness there & it over relies on CGI for scenes that don't require it-if you look at the OVP Ballots I've published on this blog I've only nominated four films of the over two dozen films they've put out).  It's also potentially going to be the highest-grossing comic book film of the year, which could help.  The third film that is in contention is The Batman, which is likely the best qualitatively of the three movies, but it also came out so long ago you'd be forgiven for questioning if it's a 2022 movie.

Those are the three that are in contention.  However, in terms of the shortlist, there's two more to consider.  I don't think that Thor: Love and Thunder or Black Adam will make the list ultimately, but there's not a lot of major blockbusters this year, and so if they're feeling blockbuster heavy (last year they definitely were), they could put one or both of these on the shortlist.  In 2021, we saw all four of the MCU films that were eligible make the Top 10 (only two made the actual nominations list).  I wouldn't rule out one of these movies sneaking in, though an actual nomination is a stretch.

The Prestige Movies

In recent years Oscar has made a point of citing more prestige films, both in the shortlist and the actual nominations.  There's a surprisingly large number of contenders here.  The biggest and most important is Everything Everywhere All at Once, the shock success of the spring (one of the only non-franchise films to cross $100 million in 2022).  The film is an effects movie, though it's doing it at a fraction of the budget that a Black Adam or Dr. Strange is creating visual effects, and it could get the Ex Machina/First Man-nomination of the bunch.

This is one of several films that are a possibility, though.  Guillermo del Toro's Pinocchio is an animated film that could be included.  Animated films are not frequently cited, even stop-motion ones (in the past thirty years the only ones that made the cut are Nightmare Before Christmas and Kubo and the Two Strings).  However, the early buzz on this is really good & I expect it to get in the Top 10.  Other films with effects budgets that could make it, even if they're more "supporting" effects include All Quiet on the Western Front, Nope, and Bardo.

We frequently think of pretty much every movie that is a major player for Best Picture with an effects budget making the lineup (recent Best Picture nominees Dune, 1917, and Gravity got their wins in part because they were already being celebrated by the Academy), but that's not always the case.  Three recent Best Picture nominees (Dunkirk, The Shape of Water, and Mank made the shortlist but ultimately were skipped by Oscar for an actual nomination, so people speaking with complete certainty that the buzz around Everything Everywhere will guarantee it a nomination here-I don't buy it.  It's in the hunt, but it's not a guarantee, particularly given that much of its best effects are related to martial arts, a genre that is very rarely celebrated by this branch.

The Wild Cards

That brings us to the wild cards, and specifically two types of films that have struggled to land in this category: non-English movies and documentaries.  To date, no film from either description has been nominated for an Oscar.  This is particularly shocking for films not primarily in English, as the past three decades have produced films as varied as Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon, Apocalypto, Pan's Labyrinth, Das Boot, Ran, and Curse of the Golden Flower which were cited in other categories by AMPAS but didn't make it here.  The Bollywood smash hit RRR is definitely in contention.  A huge action film hit worldwide, the movie is on the Academy's radar & is the most expensive Indian film ever made, even if it doesn't have the cultural cache to American audiences that something like Black Panther does.  At some point, with Chinese & Indian cinema continuing to take a larger percentage of the global box office (and continuing to break production budget records), a film from one of these movie communities will crack this category, though it's hard to tell if a film that will have no cache in other categories (unlike some of the movies I just listed) is a serious threat.

The only documentary which has been a contender for a nomination was 2020's Welcome to Chechnya, which was honestly a surprise miss at the time (when it made the shortlist, I was sure it'd make the cut & honestly I was thinking it was the greatest threat to Tenet losing).  This film makes its visual effects actually part of its story, and has the backing of Industrial Light & Magic, George Lucas's visual effects company that is a longtime favorite of this branch.  Similar to RRR, I don't know what it'll take to make the cut, but I do think it's a threat, especially for the shortlist.

Movies on the Shortlist But Not in the Final 5

One of the phenomena that's unusual about the shortlist concept, particularly for this category (which has made their shortlist public a lot longer than most branches), is that you get to see a number of films make the shortlist that you know "aren't getting nominated."  This makes predicting the shortlist a fun challenge.  Two franchises stand out as potential threats here.  Fantastic Beasts: The Secrets of Dumbledore and Jurassic World: Dominion are not going to get Oscar nominations, as none of their predecessors did for VFX.  However, all of their predecessors made the shortlists, and I think it would be foolish to dismiss them getting into the Top 10 even if they have no threat to actually get nominations for the Oscars.  Frequently the losing nominees will feature films that have big, showy budgets and aren't always big hits (which Jurassic World was, Fantastic Beasts was not).  Don't rule them out in a shortlist just cause they won't make it with Oscar.

Two other contenders that come to mind are Bullet Train and The Grey Man.  The former slunk across the threshold into $100 million territory, but is largely forgotten by audiences right now.  However, its "set piece as visual effect" (most of the film takes place on a finite train) is the kind of gimmick that this branch will go for in a ten-wide field.  The Gray Man was something of a critical miss, but in a year where Netflix has very few contenders, don't count out them trying to get some sort of love here.

My Current Predictions

Below are my current predictions.  As I said above, this is a race with a lot of moving parts, and particularly if Bardo or Pinocchio are bigger deals than I currently think they'll be with AMPAS, I might change my mind here, but I'm betting on the three big comic book films, and that both of the "rule-breaker" nominees (RRR and Good Night Oppy) get onto the Top 10.  For the Top 5, I am going with the surprise snub of Everything Everywhere in favor of all three major comic book movies.  The reason for this is simple-this is a branch that rarely goes for supporting effects (First Man being the big exception), and while this movie is a "great effects" movie, it's not a movie where the effects are particularly big or groundbreaking in the way we've come to expect.  They're just well-utilized.  In that way, I feel like it might be in the camp of something like The Shape of Water more than First Man.  But, as we'll see in the coming weeks as precursors start to come out, my thoughts there may change.

Shortlist: Avatar: The Way of Water, The Batman, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, Dr. Strange and the Multiverse of Madness, Everything Everywhere All at Once, Good Night Oppy, Guillermo del Toro's Pinocchio, Jurassic World: Dominion, RRR, Top Gun: Maverick

Nominees: Avatar: The Way of Water, The Batman, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, Dr. Strange and the Multiverse of Madness, Top Gun: Maverick