We’ve hit the movies and the comedies, so with just one day
left until a lot of Hollywood stars are either ecstatic or firing their agents,
we’ll move into the five Drama categories. As I’ve mentioned before, the higher the ranking, the more likely
I think it is that someone will be nominated (not necessarily win, though).
Best Drama Series
1. Breaking Bad
2. True Detective
3. House of Cards
4. Game of Thrones
5. Mad Men
6. Downton Abbey
The Lowdown: This
looks extremely familiar, because, well, it is. The only show that I’m skipping from last year is Homeland, which has become a shadow of
its former celebrated self. I do
feel like new blood could oust the aging Mad
Men and Downton Abbey, but no
show aside from True Detective seems
like it could be elevated onto this list.
The Americans is more a
critical than an audience fave (which matters with ratings-conscious Emmy) and The Good Wife missed last year (usually
a death knell) and this category has been very resistant to network
dramas. I say that this is the
lineup, though don’t be surprised if Downton
or Mad Men become the surprise
miss of the morning.
Winner?: I mean, Breaking Bad has milked that double
season for all it’s worth. True Detective could be a factor, but
that seems more of a lead actor situation. Walter White wins in his final showdown.
Best Actor in a Drama
Series
1. Bryan Cranston, Breaking
Bad
2. Matthew McConaughey, True
Detective
3. Kevin Spacey, House
of Cards
4. Woody Harrelson, True
Detective
5. James Spader, The
Blacklist
6. Jon Hamm, Mad Men
The Lowdown: Once
again, prestige (a pair of Oscar winners) and love of their shows will cement
the top four easily in place.
James Spader was once a major Emmy player for Boston Legal, and I suspect the ratings on this show will ensure
him a nomination (perhaps I am underestimating it even for Best Series?). The final slot is a showdown between
previous winner Jeff Daniels and long-suffering loser Jon Hamm. I’m going to go with Hamm because his
show is more established with Emmy and didn’t get a gut-punch
cancellation. That said, Mad Men is clearly weakened going into
this year, and I think at least one of its perennials will miss.
Winner?: This is
going to be an amazing showdown between the recently crowned Oscar Best Actor
and a longtime Emmy favorite retiring his iconic character. I don’t dare predict who will win until
I see how their shows fare in other categories, but this is going to be one for
the ages.
Best Actress in a
Drama Series
1. Robin Wright, House
of Cards
2. Kerry Washington, Scandal
3. Julianna Margulies, The
Good Wife
4. Claire Danes, Homeland
5. Elisabeth Moss, Mad
Men
6. Tatiana Maslany, Orphan
Black
The Lowdown: Occasionally
getting snubbed when you were expected to get in has a HUGE effect the next
year (see Sean Hayes for a good example), and I think that’s what Maslany is
going to be this year. Michelle
Dockery for Downton Abbey or Lizzy
Caplan for Masters of Sex or even
Keri Russell in The Americans all
would make more sense, but Orphan Black is
a major part of pop culture right now and she’s easily a breakout star. The rest of the women seem pretty set,
though Moss could be vulnerable if Mad
Men love completely falters.
Winner?: Margulies
may have had one helluva a season, but I think this is a battle between
Washington and Wright (Danes has slipped too far to win, though she’s got at
least one more nomination in her before the sun sets on her series).
Washington is on the biggest show on network television right now if you
go strictly on buzz, and I still think that she’ll win for this role, but the
fact that she missed last year (when Scandal
love seemed to peak) could mean Wright’s ice queen will enjoy this trophy.
Best Supporting Actor
in a Drama Series
1. Aaron Paul, Breaking
Bad
2. Peter Dinklage, Game
of Thrones
3. Dean Norris, Breaking
Bad
4. Jon Voight, Ray
Donovan
5. Josh Charles, The
Good Wife
6. Mandy Patinkin, Homeland
The Lowdown: I
don’t watch Boardwalk Empire anymore,
but it does appear that Bobby Cannavale is not in contention this year (I
suspect his character may have been a one-season arc), so we’re left with only
a handful of actors from last year that could be returning, chief amongst them
Aaron Paul, Mandy Patinkin, and Peter Dinklage. Dean Norris also seems to have gotten a lot of press for Breaking Bad and it’s hard to argue with
an Oscar winner at the Emmys, so I think Jon Voight is probably going to be up
here as well. That leaves one last
slot, and I think that Josh Charles major season on The Good Wife coupled with his nomination a few years ago for the
same role will be the push he needs to take out someone like John Slattery in Mad Men or Kit Harington in Game of Thrones.
Winner?: Breaking Bad is going to be hard to
beat, and Aaron Paul seems quite likely to pick up a third trophy for his final
season on the show. That being
said, Dinklage has had a marvelous actorly showcase this season on Game of Thrones, and he has been favored
by Emmy before-it could happen again.
Best Supporting
Actress in a Drama Series
1. Anna Gunn, Breaking
Bad
2. Maggie Smith, Downton
Abbey
3. Christine Baranski, The
Good Wife
4. Michelle Monaghan, True
Detective
5. Christina Hendricks, Mad
Men
6. Emilia Clarke, Game
of Thrones
The Lowdown: Emmy
likes to repeat-that’s the best way to make sense of this list. While Gunn, Smith, and Baranski all
seem pretty well-set (Baranski doesn’t have quite the heat she once did, but
Emmy loves her to bits considering she has eleven nominations so far), the
final three slots are a bit harder to sell.
I suspect we’ll see Monaghan (someone other than Harrelson/McConaughey
need to score from that show), and I am going to pick Hendricks/Clarke for the
final two slots because they managed to make it in last year in a tough
competition. Emmy could of course
go with someone they once had the hots for like Archie Panjabi in The Good Wife or Joanne Froggatt in Downton Abbey or even someone outside
the box like Bellamy Young for Scandal or
Lena Headey for Game of Thrones, but
my money is on Clarke/Hendricks for now.
Winner?: If
Maggie Smith ever bothered to show up for one of these awards shows, I suspect
they would call off the voting and just proclaim her the winner, but her
absence makes it harder to vote for her.
I suspect Gunn will win her second trophy for her show’s final season,
with Christina Hendricks continuing to stew over the fact that no actor from Mad Men will ever win an Emmy.
And there you have it folks-tune in tomorrow to see my thoughts on the Emmy roundup, but before we get there-which dramatic contenders are you rooting for? Are you expecting? Share in the comments!
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