Nebraska
Governor: Democrats struggled mightily to even have a candidate in this race, so while they succeeded in that (I see you Bob Krist), it's a sign that Pete Ricketts has an easy reelection ahead of him, arguably the safest governor's seat on the map this year for the GOP.
Senate: Part of me wonders if this seat will be slightly closer than expected on Election Night. Sen. Deb Fischer is hardly established, and isn't the sort of firebrand who gets Republicans out in a midterm, so if Democrats are truly fired up, City Councilwoman Jane Raybould should probably exceed expectations...though in this case exceeding expectations would be getting above 40% of the vote. An easy hold, but one where I'm curious about the margin.
House: It's clear at this point that the Democrats botched this race up. What at one point looked like a rematch between Rep. Don Bacon (R) and former Rep. Brad Ashford (D) was torn asunder when non-profit exec Kara Eastman (D) bested Ashford in the primary. Eastman is far more liberal than Ashford, and while this seat isn't averse to Democrats, it probably won't sign up for one with Eastman's views. Were Ashford in the race, considering the national mood in similarly-minded districts, I'd be calling this a proper tossup or one that he might win. Eastman's loss here is a textbook example to Democrats who want to fashion a "Tea Party" style purge of moderates in their party-it will cost you seats, and perhaps a majority.
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| Rep. Jacky Rosen (D-NV) |
Governor: Weirdly there are only two states this year where there is a competitive gubernatorial AND senate race on the ballot: Florida and Nevada. As a result, these two states (also critically-important swing states for 2020), are getting lavished with attention right now, though thanks to size and its history with close elections, Florida is the headliner here. Both of these seats in the Silver State are currently held by Republicans, and the GOP in theory should be able to hold this, as outgoing Gov. Brian Sandoval remains popular. However, Sandoval has made a point of not endorsing anyone in the general election, thanks to Republican Attorney General Adam Laxalt being considerably more conservative than Sandoval, and threatening to undo some of Sandoval's biggest achievements as governor (particularly his Commerce Tax that has helped fund Nevada school districts, as well as a more right-leaning approach on environmental laws and online gaming). Laxalt is in a tight race against County Commissioner Steve Sisolak, but Nevada is notorious for under-polling Democrats and as I'll point in a second, is one of the few states that early voting is a good predictor of the eventual result, so my gut says that Sisolak ends up barely winning this race, and probably did so with the help of Sandoval behind closed curtains. D+1
Senate: It is always tempting to look at early voting numbers and assume that they are indicative of the race at large. After all, if a team is winning in early voting, it stands to reason that they'll do well on Election Day...but this is categorically false. Early voting is a good tactic for campaigns (it means that you can cross certain points-of-contact off your list and target a slimmer group of voters as the election approaches), but it's not a great indicator for the results of who will win...except in Nevada. Thanks to Nevada being a weirdly polarized state that remains relatively consistent in its voting patterns, you can tell a lot from Nevada's early voting patterns, which is a good sign for Rep. Jacky Rosen, who cleaned up in Clark County & held her own in Washoe. Sen. Dean Heller is not unpopular with independents (frequently polls show him winning with them), and as a result, this could be really close; Heller has never lost an election in Nevada, and was able to overcome a strong Democratic push at the top of the ballot in 2012, but I think the national mood is strong enough that Rosen should be able to win this on Election Day. As a result, this is our first Republican senator that I'm predicting to lose on Tuesday night. D+1
House: Rosen's open seat in the 3rd and Rep. Ruben Kihuen's retiring in the 4th district after sexual misconduct allegations against him surfaced could make these districts vulnerable on Tuesday. The 3rd went to Donald Trump by a small margin in 2016 and the fourth has a strong GOP contender in former Rep. Crescent Hardy. However, early voting has made the 4th a tough sell for Hardy, and his 2014 opponent former Rep. Steve Horsford is about to get his revenge (Horsford lost in 2014 in arguably the biggest upset of the night). Horsford could be vulnerable in the future (his campaigning skills seem a bit overrated after a middling performance in 2014 and a lackluster 2018 campaign), but we're only focusing on Tuesday, and he will be one of two former members of the House (the other being Arizona's Ann Kirkpatrick) making a comeback. In the 3rd, it looks closer, but the Republicans screwed themselves by getting perennial candidate Danny Tarkanian as their nominee. Tarkanian is the close-but-no-cigar candidate (always running tough races, but always losing them), and Democrat Susie Lee seems in a good position to best Tarkanian in the waning days of the campaign. As a result, Nevada hosts two of the few plausible offensive targets the Republicans have, but both should be fine. Also, it has to be noted, if Sisolak & Rosen carry the down-ballot constitutional offices to victory (very probable) and Lee/Horsford both win, Nevada is going to start resembling a blue state a lot more than a purple one...
New Hampshire
Governor: Part of me keeps thinking that the Democrats could shock in the Granite State. In 2004, Democrat John Lynch won one of the bigger upsets of the night when he bested one-term Gov. Craig Benson, and New Hampshire is more susceptible to waves than your average state is. However, Gov. Chris Sununu seems in better shape than Benson, and State Sen. Molly Kelly hasn't really made a case that was as good as Lynch's in 2004. As a result, this should be yet another New England state that Republicans hold the governorship for while the rest of the races swing blue.
House: With Rep. Carol Shea-Porter retiring, the 1st district would normally be vulnerable in a more neutral environment. This district went for Donald Trump in 2016, and an open seat gives the Republicans an opening (just look at the races in Minnesota's 1st & 8th for an example). However, Executive Councilor Chris Pappas (D) has romped through this race, and one could make the argument is a better option for Democrats than Shea-Porter would have been. Another race that might be vulnerable in the future, but for 2018 he should be fine (Pappas, at the age of 38, is definitely a candidate to watch in the future).
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| Mikie Sherrill (D-NJ) |
Senate: Democrats everywhere grimace when the New Jersey Senate race comes up, because it's the race that shouldn't be. Donald Trump remains unpopular in the Garden State after losing it in 2016, and incumbent Sen. Bob Menendez (D) would normally be fine...except he faced a trial last year for federal corruption charges that ended in a hung jury & a mistrial. At the time, a movement by Republicans to get Menendez to resign so that Chris Christie would replace him (and likely in the process pass Trumpcare), hardened support for Menendez, meaning that a quality primary challenger didn't emerge, and now the Democrats are stuck with an unpopular Democratic incumbent whom no one really likes and is running against a multimillionaire (Bob Hugin) who has sank $36 million of his own money into the race against Menendez. Menendez would become a Democratic pariah if somehow the Democrats got Donnelly, McCaskill, and Bredesen across the finish line in red states only to see their chances of a majority disappear because Menendez couldn't win as a Democrat in 2018 in New Jersey. Polls show that probably won't happen, but it is likely that Menendez is entering his final term in public office, as there's no way he avoids a primary challenge six years from now.
House: Menendez might, in fact, be helped in a rare case of down-ballot candidates helping out the top of the ticket. New Jersey's current delegation is 7D-5R, but Democrats look likely to change that with four competitive races on the map. The easiest sell (and arguably the surest pickup for the Democrats on Tuesday night) will be in the 2nd district, where popular State Sen. Jeff van Drew (D) looks likely to best Republican Seth Grossman, whom the NRCC has denounced for racist comments in the district vacated by Rep. Frank LoBiondo-it's entirely possible van Drew wins this seat by 20-points on his first try at Congress. Another probable victory for the Democrats is in the open 11th district, where Rep. Rodney Frelinghuysen is retiring. While Republican State Rep. Jay Webber is a much better candidate than Grossman, he's still been behind in virtually every poll in the race against navy pilot Mikie Sherrill, and Sherrill's fundraising prowess likely seals the deal here for her to win the race. The final two races are not in open seats, and as a result are considerably closer. New Jersey's 7th has Rep. Leonard Lance running in a seat that was traditionally quite competitive, but almost always went for the Republican at the end of the day. Polls have shown Democrat Tom Malinowski in a pretty strong position headed into Election Night, and while Lance isn't as incendiary as some other Republicans in tough races, I kind of wonder if New Jersey Democrats might take him out simply because of the "R" behind his name, so let's assume a slim win for Malinowski. Finally, we have the 3rd district pitting conservative Rep. Tom MacArthur against former Obama advisor Andy Kim. This race has consistently exchanged leads, and is one of the few races I probably wouldn't call if I didn't have to for this article. My gut says that MacArthur wins this at the end of the day because with tossups it's wisest to go with the DNA of the district, and that's for Republicans, but I wouldn't be stunned if Kim wins, even by 4-5 points. But I'll bet on MacArthur for a D+3 result in New Jersey.
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| Rep. Steve Pearce (R-NM) |
Governor: One of the great mysteries of this year's elections is why Rep. Steve Pearce (R) decided to run for the open seat of retiring Gov. Susana Martinez in New Mexico. Martinez is not popular, it's a tough year for Republicans on-paper, and the Democrats already had a very good candidate in Rep. Michelle Lujan Grisham. Perhaps he just wanted out of DC and figured he might as well shoot for the moon as an end to his career? Either way, he's losing and the Democrats are getting their easiest gubernatorial pickup. D+1
Senate: Sen. Martin Heinrich (D) might have had a mild scare when former Gov. Gary Johnson joined the race as a Libertarian (Johnson was the party's 2016 nominee for president), but even if there wasn't a Republican already in the race to take 8-10% of Johnson's potential support, it's probable that Heinrich would win. As a result, mark this as an easy win for the Senate's handsomest member.
House: Pearce's run for governor likely won't have a big impact on that race, but it surely impacts the battle for Congress. That's because in his 2nd district, historically a conservative district but one with a large Latino population (that can't be happy about President Trump's last minute xenophobic pitches on immigration), could well swing to the Democrats this cycle. This is because the Republican State Rep. Yvette Harrell has been underwhelming while the Democrats hit a home run with attorney Xochitl Torres-Small, who has proven to be an ace retail politician in this sprawling district. This district is conservative (it went for Trump by 11 points), but it's not immune to Democratic waves (before Pearce was Democrat Harry Teague), and the polls show Torres-Small in a good position. I'm guessing this is one of the Democrats' last gains of the night on Election Day. D+1
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| Antonio Delgado (D-NY) |
Governor: The question isn't whether or not Andrew Cuomo (D) will win yet another term as governor-it's whether his very public primary challenge from Cynthia Nixon makes it impossible to win a Democratic primary for president in 2020.
Senate: I bet you didn't know that Kirsten Gillibrand has a campaign on Tuesday...cause I sure didn't until I wrote this article. As a general rule if I forget someone is running for reelection, they're usually winning, so mark this as an easy win for a different New York Democrat that might run for POTUS in 2020.
House: Okay, we're going to work backwards here. NY-1, NY-2, NY-21, and NY-23 are all theoretically competitive seats that won't actually flip unless I'm really wrong about the wave for the Democrats. NY-11 probably stopped being an option when (indicted) former Rep. Michael Grimm lost the Republican primary. That really leaves four seats that are genuine options for Democrats to win in New York: 19th, 22nd, 24th, and 27th. Of the four, I'm most bullish for the Republicans in the 27th, where despite the GOP having a man who is literally under federal investigation (Rep. Chris Collins), this is still such a red district and one that would be nearly impossible for the Dems to pick up (even with the congressman probably headed to prison before the end of his next term). The 24th is an option, considering it went for Hillary Clinton in 2016 & the Democrat Dana Batler has proven an adept fundraiser, but Republican Rep. John Katko is quite popular and should be able to sustain most waves. That leaves the 19th & 22nd, easily the most competitive of the NY races. The 19th has gotten to be a ruthless and frequently racist contest, with Republican Rep. John Faso's campaign frequently making controversial attacks against attorney (and former Rhodes Scholar) Antonio Delgado, who happens to be black. This is an Obama-Trump district, so it's possible it swings back, and considering Delgado is gaining in the polls, I think it will (if it doesn't, look for blame to be placed at the feet of former SVU star Diane Neal, who is running as an independent). The 22nd features Rep. Claudia Tenney, one of the House's most vocal conservatives, seeking a second term against State Rep. Antonio Delgado. This race has more consistently shown Delgado in the lead, and though this is a more conservative district than the 19th, I think that Tenney's poor campaign is going to cost her enough that the district's GOP base won't be enough. Look for Delgado to win and then get ousted in 2020 with a better Republican candidate & Donald Trump helping the GOP by actually being on the ballot. D+2
North Carolina
House: Our third race that doesn't have a Senate or Governors race on the ballot, North Carolina features four competitive House races (all held by Republicans), though it's hard to tell how much the Democrats will gain from these races' potential. NC-2, for example, looked competitive but Rep. George Holding is closing strong, and the same appears true for Rep. Richard Hudson in the 8th. Arguably the two best shots are the 9th and the 13th, though Democrat Kathy Manning in the latter has proven better at fundraising than at translating that cash into good poll numbers, and at the end of the day Rep. Ted Budd should be fine. The 9th district, however, is a true race. Rep. Robert Pittenger lost in a close primary to Pastor Mark Harris, and since then Harris's past comments about women (his sermons call on women to "submit" to their husbands) and LGBT people (he has called homosexuality a choice and stated that gay sex should be criminalized like it was for much of the 20th century) have left an opening for the Democrats to win. It's worth noting this is a pretty conservative district (McCain, Romney, and Trump all won it by double digits), but polls show Democratic US Marine Dan McCready even money with Harris, and McCready gaining as the election approaches. My hunch is that Harris wins this and becomes a problem child for the House GOP, but it's entirely possible that McCready wins because the Republicans nominated such an awful candidate in a similar way to Doug Jones' victory last year.
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| Sen. Heidi Heitkamp (D-ND) |
Senate: Six years ago, Heidi Heitkamp shocked political pundits everywhere with a surprise victory over Rep. Rick Berg. Since then, Heitkamp has carved a name for herself as a well-liked moderate in her caucus, and has toed the line between supporting President Trump (she's one of three Democrats who voted for Neil Gorsuch) and opposing him (she voted against Brett Kavanaugh). Polls have shown Heitkamp in a similar rough spot against Rep. Kevin Cramer, and while polling is limited (and she's defied those polls before), I just don't see a path to victory for Heitkamp. It's quite possible her loss is the nail-in-the-coffin for Senate Democrats who hold out hope for her to win the Senate for them, but I can't give them that comfort-Cramer should be able to succeed where Berg could not. R+1
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