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| Attorney General Janet Mills (D-ME) |
Governor: Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me. The big question is-do we need a new ending for Maine progressives this year? In both 2010 and 2014, Maine progressives split their votes between the Democratic nominee and independent candidate Eliot Cutler, in the process allowing arch-conservative Gov. Paul LePage to win eight years as governor. In 2018, the situation could repeat itself, with LePage-backed Republican businessman Shawn Moody (LePage didn't endorse in the primary, but his wife did), potentially able to exploit a threeway race against Attorney General Janet Mills (D) and State Treasurer Terry Hayes (a former Democrat, now an Independent). Mills is leading in polls at a margin that former Democratic nominees Mike Michaud & Libby Mitchell never pulled off against LePage, so I'm going to guess that they've learned their lesson with a D+1, but it's entirely possible that Moody continues to exploit the split progressives in the state have endured by once again winning as a Republican with under 50% of the vote.
Senate: Democrats don't have the same issue with the Senate race. Progressives have rallied around popular Sen. Angus King (I), and while he does have a Democratic opponent, it's doubtful he gets more than 10% of the vote, more than enough wiggle room for King, who caucuses with the Democrats and is (for all intents and purposes) a Democrat with a moderate streak.
House: Here's a race that almost certainly doesn't end up decided on election day, and may well end up in court before things are done. That's because for its federal races this year, Maine will have RCV, which means that unless one candidate gets to 50%, it will go to the second and third choices for the nominees. This is a strong likelihood this year, as Rep. Bruce Poliquin (R) and State Rep. Jared Golden (D) have been neck-and-neck in recent polling, though it's worth noting that while Golden seems to be breaking away slightly, Poliquin regularly over-performs at the polls (witness his two come-from-behind victories over Emily Cain, including in 2014 that would have gone to a runoff under this new rule). In a RCV-situation, Golden is probably going to win as it's hard to see the independents going with Poliquin as their second choice, so I'll say D+1, but Republicans in the state (particularly Paul LePage) have threatened to sue if RCV results in Poliquin winning a first-ballot plurality, but ultimately not the seat, and as a result this could go on for weeks, potentially even testing the nonpartisan nature of Brett Kavanaugh.
Maryland
Governor: Gov. Larry Hogan is one of three major anomalies this year (the others being the next governor on this list and Vermont's Phil Scott). Hogan is a wildly popular Republican governor in a deep blue state running against a middling candidate (former NAACP President Ben Jealous). I'd imagine that straight-ticket voting causes Hogan to win by less than the polls say (some show his lead as high as 20 points), but we aren't in Bob Ehrlich territory here-Hogan will win a second term, and potentially be a thorn in the side of Democrats when redistricting comes around.
Senate: Twelve years ago, Ben Cardin genuinely looked like one of the more vulnerable options on the Senate calendar, but after two terms, he's as safe as can be.
Massachusetts
Governor: Like Hogan, Charlie Baker is an enormously popular Republican governor from a deep blue state running against a third-tier candidate. Unlike Hogan, Baker comes from a state that regularly elects GOP governors even while sending a fully-blue slate of candidate to DC. Baker should exceed the 20-point margin here.
Senate: Conversely, in a move similar to Hillary Clinton before she ran in 2008, Elizabeth Warren is going from a highly-publicized initial election to an easy cruise to reelection. Expect her campaign to begin as early as her victory speech next Tuesday night.
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| House Minority Leader Gretchen Whitmer (D-MI) |
Governor: Two years ago, Donald Trump had arguably his biggest upset of the night when Michigan was called for him by 0.2 points, a margin of just over 10k votes. This year, the Democrats don't appear nearly as vulnerable, though, as the GOP has shot itself in the foot after a rough primary; Attorney General Bill Schuette doesn't even have the endorsement of sitting-Gov. Rick Snyder. Democrats have lined up behind House Minority Leader Gretchen Whitmer, and at the age of only 47 she's likely to get a national profile very soon after pulling off this D+1.
Senate: Polls have shown Debbie Stabenow's once intense lead (she was up by some 20-points) as diminishing as Republicans return home. In a Trump state, that's at least worth mentioning, though I'm only worried about checkmarks, and though Democrats should be concerned if Stabenow only wins by high single digits, that's a problem for 2020 and beyond, not Tuesday, so they'll take the W.
House: There are essentially three tiers of Michigan House races this year. The first is the seat that seems genuinely off-the-table for the Republicans, the 11th district. Democrat Haley Stevens has run a perfect campaign, and Republican Lena Epstein has stumbled (and has a pretty tight affiliation to Trump in a district that went for him in 2016, but probably wouldn't in 2018). Epstein is grasping at straws in the remaining days of her campaign (witness the ill-advised Christian Rabbi event this past week), and it looks like Stevens has this locked up. The second tier is the seats that could go to the Democrats, thanks to closer than expected races: the trio of Southern districts in the 6th, 7th, and 8th. All of these have quality Democrats, but also quality Republican incumbents. The one that seems the most vulnerable is Mike Rogers in the 8th, and for a while it felt like the NRCC had left Bishop for dead, but he's rebounded in the polls and I just don't think that he'll lose (though this is one I would have said went to Democrat Elissa Slotkin last week). If there's a sizable wave, at least one, and maybe two of these seats are vulnerable. If there's a huge wave, we could also be looking at the 1st, 2nd, or 3rd being on the table, but those are probably out of reach. As a result, let's go with D+1 with a lot of potential for a second seat if Whitmer & Stabenow have coattails.
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| State Rep. Joe Radinovich (D-MN) |
Governor: This race largely ended the day after the primaries. The Democrats went with affable moderate Rep. Tim Walz (rather than a more scandal-plagued Lori Swanson or a too-liberal Erin Murphy), while the Republicans chose two-time statewide loser Hennepin County Commissioner Jeff Johnson rather than former Gov. Tim Pawlenty. Since then Walz has consistently lead in the polls, and the RGA gave up on this race a while ago, so this should be an easy victory for the Democrats.
Senate: Our first of two states that will feature dual Senate races, the Democrats should take both, but by different margins. Sen. Amy Klobuchar will win a third term (possibly in the process winning every House district, even the 6th and 7th), while appointed-Sen. Tina Smith will win by a less impressive margin. Smith has been the target of ridicule of President Trump (he proclaimed at a recent rally "nobody knows who she is"), but State Sen. Karin Housley has failed to gain any traction, and while Smith has had some closer polls, she's always led them, and should on Election Night.
House: No state has more potential for movement in both directions than Minnesota, which features four close House races (well, five if you count Collin Peterson, but I doubt 2018 is the year he finally falls even if that will eventually come for his seat). On the right, Republicans are defending two suburban House districts, one of which went to Hillary Clinton by 9-points (the 3rd). That district feels assured a flip to Dean Phillips over Rep. Erik Paulsen, who may not be the most incendiary guy but can't survive with an "R" behind his name in the era of Donald Trump. The 2nd went for Trump, but only by a thin margin & it also went for Obama in 2012. A rematch that looked likely to go the D's until the last second, it's not secure but my gut says that Democrat Angie Craig does better with Trump in the White House with suburban voters, who are the most likely to have turned on the president (her poll numbers are solid). On the left, the Democrats are defending two open Trump districts, both of which feel like easy gets for the Republicans were the environment not so toxic. My gut says that County Commissioner Pete Stauber (R) defeats State Rep. Joe Radinovich in the 8th, as Radinovich has had some missteps, but I'm going to guess that Dan Feehan (D) is able to dispatch Jim Hagedorn (R) to win the 1st. Feehan will be helped by Walz at the top of the ticket (and the Republicans sinking in all statewide races except the AG contest), and is the sort of generic, moderate Democrat who plays well here (plus, Hagedorn's a perennial candidate & it's tough to continue to win after losing twice). As a result, I'm guessing Minnesota goes D+1 for its net score.
Mississippi
Senate: Joining Minnesota, Mississippi also has two Senate races (weirdly, like Minnesota, these are due to resignations rather than a death in office, which is more traditionally why a seat opens up). I suspect that this will be a partisan mirror with Minnesota, though with a twist. Sen. Roger Wicker (R), who is not the appointed senator, should get an easy victory as he seeks a third term in office. His fellow senator, appointed-Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith, will probably win eventually, but due to an anomaly in Magnolia State law, she probably won't be assured of that victory until December. That's because if she doesn't hit 50% in the open race, there will be a runoff, and with both a Democrat (Rep. Mike Espy) and another, more conservative Republican (State Sen. Chris McDaniel) in this race, I suspect she'll have to beat Espy in December. There's a chance, then, that this race could decide the majority for the Senate if the Democrats net one seat next Tuesday but don't grab a second one. If that happens, expect a world of press to descend on what would otherwise be a sleeper Senate race.
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| Sen. Claire McCaskill (D-MO) |
Senate: Claire McCaskill does not have easy races for public office. In 1998, when she first ran for public office, she won with just over 50% of the vote. In 2004, she bested incumbent Gov. Bill Holden (first person ever to beat an incumbent governor in a Missouri primary) before falling to Matt Blunt in the general in less than 3-point race. McCaskill two years later would win her Senate seat by a thin margin, and after being counted out of most of the 2012 race, would manage to turn Todd Akin into a verb, besting him by a huge margin after basically getting him through the Republican primary. Suffice it to say, Claire McCaskill is not someone that you should count of a Senate race (and she is personally my favorite senator). However, it's hard to ignore the fact here, and while Attorney General Josh Hawley is not the toughest competitor that McCaskill has ever faced, he's got the best timing. Polls have shown a tight race, but McCaskill's been down by 1-3 points in most of them, and I'm not going to ignore that fact. A headwind for the Democrats on election day would probably be enough to carry her across the finish line, but I go back-and-forth about the strength of that, and if the election were held today, I'd say Hawley wins. A week out from the election, that doesn't feel good enough to save Claire. R+1
House: In a similar vein to GA-6 and GA-7, I kind of wonder if pollsters are missing the boat on Missouri's second district. Rep. Ann Wagner decided to forego a Senate run because she was worried she couldn't beat McCaskill. In a twist of fate, what once seemed like a smart decision (I figured she'd cruise to reelection) could be a problem if this suburban St. Louis district is vulnerable to the same kinds of swings we're seeing in the suburbs in Colorado, Minnesota, and Kansas. Cort VanOstran is not the most well-known challenger this cycle, but if he gets enough straight-ticket voters, he won't need to be. I'm betting on Wagner, but this is a race to keep an eye on if the Dems start pulling strong totals on the East Coast.
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| State Rep. Kathleen Williams (D-MT) |
Senate: Like most of his contests, Sen. Jon Tester (D) has seen a closing of the gap in the polls with State Auditor Matt Rosendale (R). Tester is running in a state with a long history of sending Democrats to the Senate while they elect Republican presidents, though, and while he's not ahead by as much, he's still ahead. The fact that he regularly is skipped by Republicans discussing the most competitive races on the map probably means that he's not in the same camp as Heitkamp, McCaskill, and Donnelly, and should win a 4-5 point victory.
House: As a rule, if you win a special election, you are almost guaranteed to win the next general election. Not since 1994 has someone lost the general election immediately after winning a special election, but three such scenarios are playing out in Georgia, Montana, and Ohio right now. Polling has shown an increasingly tight race here, with momentum building for State Rep. Kathleen Williams (D) against Rep. Greg Gianforte (R). Gianforte made headlines for assaulting a reporter just the day before the special election. Part of me thinks that Williams, buoyed by a Democratic environment and the national headlines (particularly gun violence and attacks of reporters/public officials) might end up gaining against Gianforte in a way that the special election couldn't react toward. I don't make a lot of upset guesses in my predictions (most of the time the polls are right), but looking at the direction of the polls here, I'm going to make one right now. Williams becomes the first Democrat to represent Montana in the US Senate since Pat Williams (no relation). D+1
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