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| Rep. Mimi Walters (R-CA) |
California
Governor: With Jerry Brown term-limited (and probably quixotically still considering a 2020 bid for president), we have an easy handoff to LG Gavin Newsom, who lucked out by not having one of the Democrats in the jungle primary advance, but instead a Republican whom he can easily dispatch.
Senate: One could make a sincere argument that Sen. Dianne Feinstein is in trouble, on-paper. Republicans hate her because she’s been a particularly vocal critic of President Trump, while she’s too moderate for some Democrats and many feel she botched the Kavanaugh hearings by waiting too long to bring Christine Blasey Ford into the national conversation. As a result, State Sen. President Kevin de Leon should be taken seriously, but I don’t think he’ll win. Feinstein’s an institution in the Golden State, and in a year that has seen women do disproportionately well in Democratic primaries, it’s hard to see her being the first incumbent Democratic woman to lose what is essentially a Democratic primary here.
House: While the Battle for the Senate is sexier, it’s the Battle of the House that is ultimately the more important question mark on Election Day. If the Democrats can’t take the House, it’s impossible to imagine Trump won’t fire Robert Mueller by the end of the year because he knows there won’t be consequences for such an action. If the Democrats want the House, they’re going to need to win a handful of races in California, where seven Republicans currently sit in seats that Hillary Clinton won in 2016. I’ll start out with some of the easier to call races. While CA-21 will be a tough sell for Republicans when Rep. David Valadao retires, there are no indications that he can’t win this seat in 2018 even with a blue wave against him. Democrats are running competitive races against Reps. Tom McClintock, Devin Nunes, and Duncan Hunter, but the hard-right swing of these seats makes a Democratic victory unlikely, even considering that the latter two have been involved with major ethical and, in Hunter’s case, criminal actions in recent months. That leaves the six Hillary districts I think the Democrats have a shot winning. CA-49 (Darrell Issa’s open seat) feels like the easiest take, and most pundits are writing this seat off as a lost cause for the GOP (including me). The 45th seems to be going the same direction, as Rep. Mimi Walters appears to have badly misjudged how purple her district has become, running a campaign like she’s still in safe GOP territory. On the flip side, arguably the toughest pickup of the six seats is Steve Knight’s race in the 25th against Katie Hill, where Democrats have struggled to gain a solid foothold against Knight (polling shows him in a good, though shaky, position). Let’s split those with Knight winning & Walters losing, and you’re left with three more incumbents, and to win the House the Democrats should probably shoot for two of them: Reps. Jeff Denham (10th), Rohrabacher (48th), and the open 39th. In a neutral cycle I’d say all three go to the GOP, as Denham/Rohrabacher seem a relatively decent fit for their districts and the GOP got their best recruit of the cycle in State Rep. Young Kim. But this isn’t a neutral cycle, and my gut tells me that the Democrats pull the trifecta here. All three could surprise, but California is going to suffer a bloodbath this year with blowouts at the top of the ticket & Nancy Pelosi knowing how important the state is to her getting the gavel...if one pulls through it'll be Rohrabacher, but he's the most controversial of the three and the least likely to get crossover votes. As a result I’ll go with D+5.
Colorado
Governor: Lost in a sea of major demographic milestones this year is the fact that Colorado is about to elect the first openly gay male governor in American history, Rep. Jared Polis. Colorado is a swing state, but not when there’s a blue wave nationally so he feels a safe bet to replace term-limited John Hickenlooper (yet another name who might be part of the 2020 conversation).
House: Every two years, pundits proclaim that Rep. Mike Coffman will finally be vulnerable to lose the suburban 6th district, which continues to become more and more progressive in recent years, particularly with the growth of Hispanic voters in the area. This year, I think the buzz is finally justified. Democrat Jason Crow isn’t the best candidate who has taken on Coffman, but he seems to be the luckiest, as polling has shown Coffman in a rough range and while his personal popularity may be strong, he has likely hit the “Connie Morella Point” in this district where his party label is too much of a liability even if he’s well-liked by the voters personally. If the wave is large enough, Democratic State Rep. Diane Mitsch Bush might also be a threat for an election night shocker (the 3rd also has a high Hispanic population), but I think Scott Tipton is safe there. Coffman, though, appears to be a goner. D+1
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| Jahana Hayes (D-CT) |
Connecticut
Governor: New England is littered with Republican governors despite being a blue bastion, but it is actually Connecticut, with its Democratic governor, that looked the most vulnerable early in the cycle. Gov. Dan Malloy is wildly unpopular, but it doesn’t appear to be affecting Ned Lamont (who famously beat Joe Lieberman in the 2006 primary just to lose the general when Lieberman turned third party), who seems to finally have found redemption and will be the Nutmeg State’s next governor.
House: In a more neutral cycle we’d be talking about the open 5th district being a potential place for Republicans to score, but they have bigger fish to fry in the Battle for the House. Jahana Hayes will hold this seat for the Democrats and become the first black woman to represent New England in Congress.
Delaware
Senate: After making it through a primary that looked rougher than expected (but he still won in a blowout), Sen. Tom Carper (D) will easily win what I suspect will be his final term in the US Senate.
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| Mayor Andrew Gillum (D-FL) |
Florida
Governor: I’m not above admitting when I’m wrong, and man was I wrong about this race. I was sure that Democrats were making a huge mistake when they chose Tallahassee Mayor Andrew Gillum to be their nominee over Rep. Gwen Graham, but Gillum has proven to be a perfect foil to the Republican candidate Rep. Ron DeSantis (and President Donald Trump, who clearly detests Gillum), who was rightfully lambasted right out of the gate after the primaries for a racially-insensitive remark (Gillum would be the state’s first African-American governor). Polling has shown a relatively close race, but Gillum has led in virtually every poll since the primary, and while Democrats have been close-but-no-cigar in the governor’s races before (look how close to 2010 and 2014 were), I think Gillum takes this seat and becomes an instant national figure for the Democratic Party. D+1
Senate: Here’s the thing though-it’s not just that Gillum seems like he’ll win a governor’s mansion for the Democrats, it’s probable he helps hold a Senate seat for them too. Sen. Bill Nelson (D), a charisma-free Democrat who, despite 18 years in the Senate and me being a die-hard political junkie, I could tell you basically one thing about (he’s a former astronaut), was running a terrible campaign against incumbent Gov. Rick Scott (R). However, Nelson seems to have paired nicely with Gillum on the ticket, and thanks to Gillum exciting Millennials and African-Americans, Nelson has rebounded in the polls after Scott led for most of the summer. It’s probable that Gillum will win with enthusiastic Democrats behind him, who will also check Nelson’s name while they’re in the booth (but might not have bothered to show up with Graham as the nominee). And since no one cares why you voted for someone, just that you voted for them, Nelson could coast to lukewarm victory. It’s foolish to count out Scott (he’s bested very strong Democrats before and has mountains of cash to deploy in the final days of the election), but Nelson appears to be in the driver’s seat, and if there’s any sort of blue wave on top of Gillum excitement, he’s getting a fourth term.
House: Pennsylvania, California, and New Jersey are the treasure troves for House Democrats. They’re basically guaranteed pickups in each state, and the question for the House majority is can they get enough of them. But in Florida, something different seems to be brewing-it is arguably the state where I cannot say with confidence “the Democrats will pickup a seat,” but also where the Democrats could pick up 3-4 seats and I wouldn’t be stunned. We’ll get Florida’s 7th out of the way, the only theoretically vulnerable Democratic seat (since Stephanie Murphy is a first-termer who won a tight race two years ago), but this seems an easy hold until a more Republican year, and Murphy will continue on her likely march to take on Marco Rubio in 2022. The Republicans have two vulnerable incumbents that seem like they’ll win unless it’s a very, very good night for the Democrats: Vern Buchanan (16th) and Mario Diaz-Balart (25th); chalk those two seats up as Republican victories that would probably be tossups if either man had retired. The five remaining seats, though, are vulnerable. In the 6thand 15th, Nancy Soderberg and Kristen Carlson, respectively, are running good races as Democrats in more conservative territory, thanks to retiring incumbents. I wouldn’t be stunned if one of them ended up victorious, but it’s hard to tell which has the better odds (probably Carlson), and the only polling in the races has been partisan. Therefore, I’m sticking with the status quo but will be watching these races closely if the tide is a tad bluer than I expect, as both would fall in that circumstance. In the 18th, the Democrats have a strong candidate in Lauren Baer, and polling has shown this race as being particularly close. This is a Republican district, but Baer is a strong candidate, Rep. Brian Mast’s had some missteps, and this is the sort of district that the Democrats would win with even the slightest of breezes…I’m genuinely still undecided as CW says Mast, but Baer feels like the sort of candidate who randomly wins in a wave. Let’s go Mast for now, but I’m thinking about changing at the last minute. The final two seats that are options for the Democrats are FL-26 and FL-27. These are two of Hillary Clinton’s best districts that went for Republicans in the House (she won the 26th by 16-points and the 27th by 20-points), and if straight-ticket voting was truly as potent as so many claim, they’d be slam dunks for the Democrats. However, Cuban-Americans (a big population of these districts) have frequently sided with Republicans for Congress, and the Republicans nominated strong candidates here. The 27th, in particular, seems to have been a major screw-up for the Democrats, as the Republicans chose moderate and popular TV anchor Maria Elvira Salazar, very much in the mold of popular-incumbent Ileana Ros-Lehtinen (who is retiring), while the D’s chose 77-year-old former HHS Secretary Donna Shalala, a moderate who doesn’t speak Spanish. Shalala’s only chance here is to win by tying Salazar to Trump, a tougher thing to do than you’d think. The Democrat in the 26th, Debbie Mucarsel Powell, is much better but Rep. Carlos Curbelo is a proven incumbent who is well-liked here. Polls have shown Mucarsel-Powell rebounding after having a rougher summer, and this could be a case where Curbelo can’t stem the national tides. Considering the dynamics at play here (popular Republicans vs. an unpopular Republican president), I think that the races go together, and while the Democrats screwed up royally here (expect Shalala to get a primary challenge in 2020), I still think they land D+2.
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| State Rep. Stacey Abrams (D-GA) |
Georgia
Governor: Arguably the nastiest race for governor right now (give or take Kansas) with Brian Kemp literally purging black voters from being able to vote in order to gain an upper-hand and him literally pointing a gun at a teenage boy because he thought it would win him the primary (spoiler alert: it did), the contest between State Rep. Stacey Abrams and SoS Brian Kemp is the only race that I will not be making a prediction in, not because I’m cheating but because it won’t be decided on Election Day. This is because in the state of Georgia if you don’t get 50% of the vote on Election Day it goes to a runoff, and with a tight race & Libertarian Ted Metz on the ballot, it seems probable that neither Kemp nor Abrams win initially. Runoffs are too difficult to predict without seeing the initial numbers. After all, if, say, Kemp or Abrams is at 49.5% while the opponent is 4-5 points behind, they’ll probably win in a runoff, or it’s possible that in a depressed turnout one of the candidates gains an advantage they didn’t have in November (say, black voter turnout surges as it did in Louisiana in 2002 or it plummets like it did in Georgia in 2008…either of these two outcomes would make-or-break this election). As a result, this probably won’t matter in November, at least not for this race…
House: …but it could matter in the House. There are a few races whose dynamics I’ve been very curious about in recent weeks, especially if the Democrats are having a good night. One of those districts is GA-7, where Rep. Rob Woodall (R) seems passingly vulnerable to Democratic congressional aide Carolyn Bourdeaux. Bourdeaux’s district is less than 50% white and entirely made up of the Atlanta suburbs, a combination that could be vulnerable to the 2018 environment, particularly if (as is evidenced so far in early voting) Abrams drives up support from minority voters. Similar to FL-18, if Democrats are doing well on Election Day, check this race out as it might be a surprise pickup for the D’s. GA-6 is whiter, but also a suburban district that saw a big jump toward the Democrats comparing 2012 to 2016. However, it also already had a special election last year (a high-profile one), and special elections don’t usually change results on their next general election ballot, so if Georgia is helping Nancy Pelosi’s cause in November, it’ll probably be in the 7th. I will never stop laughing, though, if Lucy McBath pulls off the 6th in an under-the-radar victory after both sides spent $55 million trying to win this thing last year.
Hawaii
Governor: Gov. David Ige (D) might not be super popular, but his handling of recent hurricane relief efforts have put to rest his mishandling of the recent missile warning fiasco in Hawaii. After besting Rep. Colleen Hanabusa, the governor is assured a reelection victory.
Senate: Mazie Hirono has become something of a celebrity in progressive circles for her no-nonsense approach during the Kavanaugh hearings. She’ll continue taking on Trump’s judicial nominees in the next Congress after an easy reelection.
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