Election Night Guide: Alabama-Arkansas

Rep. Kyrsten Sinema (D-AZ)...could she be a senator come January?

I have written this gigantic Election Night write-up every year since 2004, and each time it feels like holding my breath for eighteen pages.  I always like to get this out of the way at first, but I think it’s unrealistic to assume that political pundits/prognosticators don’t have political opinions, in the same way that I think it’s unrealistic to assume that journalists probably don’t have political opinions.  I do, obviously-politics isn’t a hobby that sprouts unless you care about who wins.  However, I do feel that I do a strong enough job of distancing myself from what I think should happen from what I think will happen.  In the past, I have done quite well with my predictions as a whole, and when I do favor one party, it isn’t always the party for which I’m cheering.  So you can read this with that grain of salt that I’m not going to be over or under estimating based on my own partisan leanings.

That said, in my experience I do tend to over-favor one party or the other in terms of annual predictions in the roughly 5-10% of the races that I’ll predict below that I’ll get wrong.  In 2018, that boils down to a quartet of key questions, and how I answer them is how we’ll see the toughest races on the map, and how they’ll eventually turn out.  They are: 1.    What sort of affect will Brett Kavanaugh still have on the polls four weeks after his confirmation?  While Kavanaugh polled poorly nationally, he polled well in several key, red states who saw his confirmation hearing as an attack on Donald Trump and the Republican Party as a whole.  As a result, Democrats like Beto O’Rourke, Phil Bredesen, Claire McCaskill, Jon Tester, and Heidi Heitkamp have seen a tightening of their poll numbers post the Kavanaugh hearings.  If Kavanaugh is still a ballot issue by Election Day, the Senate is surely out-of-reach for the Democrats.  But as a reminder, four weeks before the 2016 election, the only thing anyone in the political landscape was talking about was the Access Hollywood video-four weeks, especially in the age of Donald Trump, is a poltical eternity, and it’s hard to know if any persuadable voters will care about Kavanaugh on Election Day.2.    Will Democrats turn out Latino voters and get them to vote straight-ticket?  This is a big one.  While voter engagement seems to be disproportionately strong for a midterm high amongst college-educated white voters, African-Americans, and Miillennials (all three key voting demographics for Democrats), Latino voters have not seen the same sort of rise in turnout based on primary and early voting numbers. This could pose a crucial problem for Democrats, who need Latino voters to win key Senate races in Texas, Nevada, and Florida, as well as a number of House races in Texas, Florida, Arizona, and California.  A depression of Latino voters (particularly ones who will vote straight-ticket, as we’ll see not converting Latino voters is going to play a big part in a number of races below), would be toxic for the Democrats, and put their chances at taking a majority in either House of Congress in jeopardy.3.    Is the “Blue Wave” real, and how big is it? This is, obviously, the biggest question mark on the map, and the one that I’ll try to suss through as I do this write-up.  For all of the mockery of a “Blue Wave” from Republicans, midterms are generally an indictment on the president, and Donald Trump is not popular (and in the wake of attacks in Pittsburgh and on Democratic party leaders, his approval ratings are sliding at a pretty inopportune time for the GOP).  While gerrymandering and geography-in-general (Democrats tend to live in dense urban neighborhoods that make them prone for lopsided districts) will hinder the Democrats’ chances (the Democrats could win the national House vote by 8-9% and still lose the House), it’s very possible that an increase of straight-ticket blue voters either turning out in a midterm (when they usually wouldn’t) or wanting a check on Donald Trump could produce some odd results.  There are a number of safe, longtime Republican incumbents in suburban districts that feel particularly vulnerable this year, and we could be underestimating this if the right combination of voters come out in under-polled districts (think of something like GA-7, which is a suburban district that went for Donald Trump by 7-points but has a large minority population).  In actual waves, districts you didn’t know were vulnerable falter because the dynamics of the race aren’t understood until Election Day. If Democrats are doing particularly well on Election Day, a seat like GA-7 might be more vulnerable than you’d think, but if the GOP is still doing fine, it’s a race you wouldn’t even notice across the bottom of your TV on Election Day.4.    Will white women still back President Trump? President Trump likes to trot out that “a majority of women voted for him in 2016,” a statement that is categorically false, something that pretty much anyone could put together (if Trump won men, and lost the popular vote, it goes without saying that he had to have lost with women).  Indeed, Trump only got 41% of women’s votes, but where this fact likely originates for him is that he won 52% of white women (he overwhelmingly lost with Latina, Asian, and African-American women, hence the 41% stat).  It’s probable that the Democrats need white women to go for the Democrats by a majority in 2018 for them to win the House, and certainly the Senate, so the question is-will that gender gap remain?  General election polling shows that the gender gap is huge right now, and it’s difficult to see a race where women favor the Democrats by 20-points or so and still lose.  But will it be that big when women vote in the actual election, particularly considering it won’t actually be Donald Trump’s name on the ballot? While there are a number of questions towering over this year’s election, those are the four that will likely decide who wins the close Governors, Senate, and House races.  I’m going to now dive into each individual state and its races.  I will add a couple of notes before I go into the race.  First, while there are a number of important races on the ballot this year, I will only focus on Governors, Senate, and House races.  I am only one man, and don’t have the time to research, say, who is going to win, the State Treasurer’s race in Colorado (though, for my money, it’s Dave Young), and as a result I’ll be skipping constitutional offices, state legislatures, mayor’s races, and ballot initiatives.  Secondly, I will only be talking about competitive House races (I’ll do every Senate/Governors race on the ballot even if it’s a blowout)-if I don’t list a House race, I don’t consider it remotely competitive and assume that the incumbent party will easily take the seat. And finally, I will make a prediction in every single race.  I don’t believe that you can call yourself a predictor of elections if you head into Election Day saying “It’s a tossup” because tossups don’t win elections-even close races are won by someone.  So my numbers will surely be lower than, say, a Charlie Cook who has forty tossups going into Election Night.  With that said, let’s head to Alabama (one of the only states that doesn’t have an official State Nickname) to kick things off alphabetically: Alabama Governor: Doug Jones may have given Democrats a road map, but not every Democrat is going to luck out and get Roy Moore as their opponent.  Despite succeeding a scandal-plagued incumbent, Gov. Kay Ivey (R) should easily dispatch Tuscalooga Mayor Walt Maddox.

State Sen. Mike Dunleavy (R-AK)

Alaska Governor: There were be a multitude of races on this list where I’ll bemoan a lack of Ranked Choice Voting (RCV), as independents will surely cost either party at least a seat or two because thanks to more than two choices, you can win without a majority.  Perhaps no race could RCV matter more, though, than in Alaska.  Despite the decision by Gov. Bill Walker (I) to abandon the race and endorse Sen. Mark Begich (D) at the last minute, he's still on the ballot and probably going to cost Begich enough votes to lead to State Sen. Mike Dunleavy (R) winning this seat, one of the few (R +1) moments of the night (a good night for the Republicans is going to be a solid defense, not a particularly robust offense).  In a RCV state, Begich would probably take this as Dunleavy is out-of-the-mainstream for Alaska Republicans and Begich is well-liked, but since he doesn't need 50% to win, it should be an easy path to 45%.
House: Like death and taxes, every two years the Democrats look at controversial Rep. Don Young and say “maybe.” In every wave election, there’s a longtime incumbent whom everyone is stunned to see lose, and perhaps that could be Young this year, but I doubt that activist Elyse Galvin can pull off that miracle even if polling shows her gaining in the final days of the election. Expect Young to continue his hold on this seat.

Arizona

 Governor: This race at one point looked quite competitive.  Gov. Doug Ducey (R) seemed to be vulnerable to splintering factions in the party (there is a war of sorts going on between moderate and conservative members of the GOP in Arizona), and Professor David Garcia (D) was poised to gain from such a splinter, particularly with a Libertarian in the race. However, Ducey has rebounded in the polls, and seems a probable winner (and a likely candidate for the Arizona special election in 2020 for John McCain’s old seat).Senate: Here we go-if you’re an elections nerd, you may have just skipped straight down to Arizona, which is hosting one of the most important Senate races in the country, and one that is fast-unfolding as I write this (I’m flagging this one as a seat I might change my mind in going forward).  Arizona has not elected a Democrat to the Senate since Dennis DeConcini’s reelection in 1988, and while there have been close calls (particularly the 2012 Senate race between Jeff Flake and Richard Carmona), this seat (Flake’s) appears to be their best shot at the Grand Canyon State’s Senate seat since Reagan was president.  Reps. Kyrsten Sinema (D) and Martha McSally (R) have had a brutal election season, with McSally getting shots from both ends (she had a tough primary against two conservative firebrands), and Sinema getting some of the meanest attack ads levied against her I’ve seen this cycle (particularly going after her patriotism). It’s hard to tell how unearthed Sinema quotes will impact the race (even if they’re taken out of context, they do feel like they’re feeding into the anti-military narrative that McSally is going for), but polling has shown Sinema with a consistent lead all year, and while it’s within the margin of error, I just can’t quite break the idea that she’s going to win as part of the national mood.  A lot has to go right for Sinema to take this, and right now Democrats may be wishing they had a different candidate without such a long list of past comments to defend, but I still think she wins this in one of the tightest races on Election Night (D+1).
House: Rep. Tom O’Halleran is going to be quite vulnerable the next time the Democrats have a rough cycle considering the dynamics of this district (it went for Trump in 2016), but he should be able to stave off his Republican challenger in 2018 considering the national mood (you’re not going to see a lot of Democratic incumbents lose in 2018 in this article under the assumption that if they survived 2016, they should have no issues in 2018, a better year for them historically and in the polls).  Arizona’s 6^thdistrict is one of those races where Democrats may be kicking themselves on November 7^th (it’s a suburban district with a relatively high minority population), but I don’t see any reason to believe that Rep. Dave Schweikert (R) should worry based on lack of interest in the race now. Finally, McSally’s seat seems a slam-dunk for the Democrats (it’s probable that even as the incumbent she would have lost here and may well lose it in her Senate battle).  The Democrats got their best candidate in former Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick, and she’s been cruising to a solid victory in most polls.  As a result, we get our first D+1 in a House race. Arkansas Governor: Despite having a 1-in-3 record for statewide contests in Arkansas, Gov. Asa Hutchinson (R) should have no trouble winning reelection this year.House: In a different decade a Democrat like State Rep. Clarke Tucker (D) might have a shot of being a Blue Dog Democrat who swoops in and wins in the heavily Trump 2^nd district, but party-line voting has become too potent in this century, and as a result I don’t see Rep. French Hill falling.