(I am checking through every state and my political predictions for Election Night 2016: If you have missed any of the other pieces, please click here: Pt. 1: Alabama-Arkansas, Pt. 2: California-Georgia, Pt. 3: Hawaii-Louisiana, Pt. 4: Maine-North Carolina, Pt. 5: North Dakota-Texas)
Utah
Utah
President: Despite
what initially seemed like a golden opportunity for Evan McMullin, an
independent favorite son, to insert himself randomly into the presidential
conversation, I suspect that it will end up being a “might have been” situation
for him, as Republicans have returned home to Trump at a bright enough clip
that both he and Clinton are unlikely to benefit from a three-way split. Still, his presence on the ballot probably
helps the GOP from having a huge slump in turnout (impacting down-ballot
contests)
Governor: I
literally forgot Utah had a governor’s race this year until I went back and
edited. So, you know, congrats to Gary
Herbert on winning reelection.
House: No one is
happier about Evan McMullin coming to the rescue with Mormon voters than Rep.
Mia Love. Love, who has had an
underwhelming presence in this district (losing it four years ago, and nearly
losing it two years ago in the landslide), was struggling until McMullin came
in and offered her a boost in turnout.
That should be enough for her to win this district in a rematch from
2014, and as a result probably hold it indefinitely.
 |
| Lt. Gov. Phil Scott (R-VT) |
President: I
suspect a few true believers will write-in Bernie Sanders name, but it won’t be
enough to move the needle. Easy victory
for Hillary Clinton.
Governor: Republicans,
look alive-I’m about to finally give you some good news. With unpopular Gov. Peter Shumlin (D)
retiring, the Republicans have their single best pickup opportunity in the
country with popular Lt. Govenor Phil Scott (R) currently leading State
Treasurer Sue Minter (D) by a robust margin.
The natural propensity of this state to vote left leaves room for Minter
to win, but this is a state that hasn’t always been kind to female politicians
(it’s one of only four that’s never sent a woman to Congress), and Scott has
done a better job than any GOP politician running in 2016 of distancing himself
from the Trump campaign. Unless the
polls are crazy wrong, this is Republicans
+1
Senate: Sen. Pat
Leahy is probably less concerned with his inevitable reelection and more
concerned about being President Pro Tempore of the Senate again.
Virginia
President: Some
people thought at the time that Hillary Clinton was doubling-down in the wrong
swing state with Tim Kaine, perhaps thinking she should have gone with someone
like Tom Perez or Iowa-native Tom Vilsack.
In hindsight, though, this will likely be a major reason she was elected
president-picking Kaine took Virginia from Slight to Lean Democratic, and gave
Clinton a much larger base from which to win the White House. Clinton will take the Old Dominion, and with
it be much, much closer to achieving her lifelong dream.
House: First off,
there’s the easy win, which is in the 4th congressional
district-thanks to mid-decade redistricting, the Democrats get a pickup
free-and-clear here. Secondly, though,
the Virginia turnout could be crucial to winning over the 10th
district-we’re seeing an increase in Democratic turnout in this district in
early voting, which could be the difference for Rep. Barbara Comstock, who may
be on borrowed time in an area that’s been trending Democratic faster than any
other in the country the past few years (the DC suburbs). Comstock was a major anti-Clinton researcher
during Bill’s second term, so were she to lose (and I suspect she will, to
LuAnn Bennett), the Clinton family will probably be thrilled not to have to
deal with her during an HRC presidency in her elevated role as a congresswoman. There’s the possibility that the Democrats
could win a third, as a late-breaking surge from Jane Dittmar in the open 5th
(another one of those “if they want the majority” districts), appears to be a
real thing, but that would only happen if turnout craters, which doesn’t appear
to be happening based on early voting (Democrats are up, but Republicans aren’t
tracking that far behind 2012). Democrats +2
Washington
President: Democrats
in Washington consistently paint the state blue, and this year will be no
exception. Expect an early call for
Clinton/Kaine, perhaps at the same time as California (if the ticket doesn’t
hit 270 during this moment, Democrats should be very worried).
Governor: No
Republican has been elected governor of the Evergreen State since 1980, and
that will continue this year, even if incumbent Jay Inslee isn’t wildly
popular.
Senate: Sen.
Patty Murray doesn’t have to deal with Dino Rossi (I’m assuming…yes, I’m
right), so she’s fine, and could well be the Majority Whip in the next congress
if she follows through with threats that she’ll challenge Dick Durbin.
West Virginia
President: I’m
guessing that the Mountain State will deliver Donald Trump his biggest victory
of the night-it could be Oklahoma or perhaps Tennessee, but I’m betting on West
Virginia, a state that actually went for Bill Clinton if you can believe it (my
how the times have changed).
Governor: What
makes that margin all the more mysterious is that the Democrats are likely to
hold the governor’s mansion, albeit with a man who resembles the policies of
Mitch McConnell more than Joe Biden.
Coal magnate Jim Justice has refused to endorse Hillary Clinton, but
carries the Democratic banner anyway and will probably best State Senate President
Bill Cole (R). As a result, I believe
he’ll be the richest governor in the country, as he’s also the richest person
in West Virginia.
Wisconsin
President: Word
is that Democrats are pouring money into Wisconsin, though it seems that’s more
to do with nervousness around the Senate contest than here. It’s worth noting that while the Democrats
can win without Wisconsin (the White House, at least), it’s a state that’s
pretty key to their plans so it’s a place that Clinton definitely wants to win,
and a state I’m guessing she takes-it’s sort of a strange case (similar to a
lot of states) where the metropolitan areas will go for her while the rest of
the state will likely be deep red, but that should be enough to transform the
Badger State.
Senate: In a
rematch of the 2010 race, former Sen. Russ Feingold has seen his fortunes go up
and down throughout the cycle, and the race against incumbent Sen. Ron Johnson
(R) has closed a bit as the days have gone by, but it’s worth noting that
Feingold has led in virtually every poll and never been behind in aggregate
polling. A late surge for Johnson could
be in the cards, but is it enough? I’m
not counting on it. Democrats +1
House: Early on
in the cycle, I thought that we might see a Democratic pickup in the 8th
district, left open by Rep. Reid Ribble, but while County Executive Tom Nelson
appears to be a good candidate, his district will almost certainly go for
Trump, which is something that Nelson can’t overcome, leaving Mike Gallagher
with a Republican hold.
Wyoming
President: Republicans
win. End of story.
House: It’s a
blowout, but it’s worth noting that Liz Cheney, daughter of former Vice
President Cheney, will be in Congress come January. It’s notable not only because of her lineage,
but also because of her heinously botched Senate primary two years ago that
threatened to end her political career.
This comeback likely means that the next open Senate seat in the state
is hers for the taking.
 |
| Sec. Hillary Clinton (D-NY) |
Closest Races: I’m
never 100% on these things, and there are a few races that standout in
particular to me as being super competitive (17 in fact): CA-49, CO-6,
FL-President, FL-7, IN Senate, IA President, IA-1, MN-8, MO Senate, NE-2 (for
President), NH President, NH Senate, NY-19, NY-22, NC-Senate, and PA-16. These are all of the races where I’m
genuinely stumped and could buy either direction, not to be confused with
places like PA-President where I’m terrified I’m wrong but feeling comfortable
with my prediction. Any of these 17
flip, I wouldn’t bat an eye-I ended up splitting them nearly down the middle,
with 9 going to the D’s and 8 going to the R’s.
Popular Vote: My
gut is saying Clinton wins the national popular vote by 5-points, not quite as
good as Obama in 2008 but much better than in 2012. She will be buoyed by blowout wins in places
like California, New York, and Washington, along with better-than-average
returns in Texas, Georgia, and Arizona.
She will not, however, hit 50% as she might have coming out of the third
debate (if the Comey announcement cost her anywhere, it was probably there).
Electoral College: For
the past week, almost every Democrat I know has asked me the same question, “could
Trump actually win?” The closing polls
show that there is momentum on his side, and that is always a powerful thing to
have headed into the election night. And
the answer is “yes, but probably not.”
Trump’s path-of-least-resistance is to win all of the Romney states,
plus NH, FL, OH, IA, NV, and ME-2. While
I do think that he has an advantage in Ohio and Iowa, it’s not a strong
advantage (it’s less than what I’d consider Clinton’s advantage in Wisconsin or
Pennsylvania, which feel out of reach for him), and not all Romney states are
in the bag, as North Carolina and NE-2 are both tossups, while Arizona and Georgia
are still somewhat on the table. Trump
could win if Democratic turnout is slumped or if polls are wrong, but that’s a
weak position to be in since it’s essentially “hoping for an upset.” Clinton is more likely to get over 300 electoral
votes, in my opinion, than Trump is to hit 270.
I have the race at 295-243, which I think is probably right, if maybe a
little bit friendlier for Trump than I would be if she was ahead by this much
against a traditional nominee (Florida, in particular, feels like a state I
could get wrong). If Clinton starts to
lose a “wall” state like Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Colorado, or Virginia early
on, she’s in trouble, and if at least one of those path-of-least-resistance
states hasn’t clearly broken for her by the time the Mountain States have
opened up, she’s in trouble (not necessarily called for her, but the writing’s
on the wall). But right now, if you’re
placing a bet it should be that the Democrats win the White House on Tuesday.
Governors: I have
the Democrats netting one seat (winning IN/NC, losing VT). I don’t consider any of these to be
“extremely close,” though all three of these races are within the margin of
error. Overall, this will mean that the
Democrats will still be down pretty far compared to the GOP, as the makeup I’m
projecting is 30R-19D-1I (Alaska has an independent governor), but it means
that the Republicans will have more offense to play in 2020 when these
governors up for reelection (right before redistricting).
Senate: I have
the Democrats picking up five seats in PA, NC, NH, WI, and IL, and not losing
any seats. I’m confident on Illinois,
Pennsylvania, and though polls have brought about a bit of doubt on Wisconsin,
I’d be stunned if Feingold couldn’t pull this off; I’m also looking more and
more optimistic on Nevada, though Joe Heck hasn’t totally taken himself out of
the running. Therefore, it’s really
NC/IN/MO/NH that will decide the Senate-if Democrats can win one of these,
based on my predictions, they’ll take it with a tie-breaking vote from Tim
Kaine. These are all genuine coin toss
races, though, so anyone saying they have strong confidence one way or another
on the Senate is fooling themselves, but the laws of probability favor the
Democrats.
House:
I have the Democrats picking up a net gain of 15
seats, and this feels like a pretty sturdy number. Anything below this can be counted as a
missed opportunity for the Democrats, though it’s better than they were two
months ago-anything more than this, and provided that Clinton and Senate
Democrats emerged victorious, and you can call this a wave.
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