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| Attorney General Kamala Harris (D-CA) |
California
President: Here’s
where Hillary Clinton starts winning something.
California has shown Trump at historic lows in the polls, perhaps giving
Clinton the greatest victory margin for a Democrat in a generation. Easy win for her, and potentially costly for
Republicans down-ballot.
Senate: Compounding
that turnout issue for the GOP is that the Republicans don’t have a Senate
candidate thanks to a bit of luck on the Democrats’ side and the fact that they
have the top-two system here that advanced Attorney General Kamala Harris and
Rep. Loretta Sanchez, both Democrats, to the November 8th
election. Harris has had a dominating
lead, winning over most Democrats, as well as white and African-American
voters, while Sanchez holds a small lead with Hispanic voters. Harris will win, holding this seat for the
Democrats, but Sanchez may have an effect down-ballot if there’s enough
excitement for her candidacy. Most polls
show Republicans are skipping the contest rather than vote for the more
moderate Sanchez.
House: If the
Democrats are going to win the House, it will almost assuredly require them to
run a clean sweep of the California seats.
The top of the ballot being so unfavorable
to Republicans makes me think that their two shots at a pickup here (Rep. Ami
Bera in the 7th and the open 24th district) are probably
gone-the Democrats lucked out there, particularly Bera who picked the exact
right cycle to cross organized labor.
The bigger question is the four GOP seats: CA-10, CA-21, CA-25, and
CA-49. All four of these seats have
increasingly looked like they will go to the Democrats in recent days,
delivering a big cut to the GOP in a state that, despite its blue roots, has
their third largest House delegation. My
gut tells me that CA-10 and CA-25 are the two most vulnerable; the 10th
has a robust Latino population, and the 25th is an open seat this
cycle with a pretty decent Democratic challenger. The 21st is the one that delivered
President Obama his biggest margin of victory of the four, and could be swept
away in a wave but David Valadao has represented this seat well and the
Democrats got a B-list candidate. In the
49th, it’s hard for me to put into words as a Democrat what a joy it
could be for Darrell Issa, a longtime thorn in the side of the Obama administration,
to be ejected from his House seat, and it would almost entirely happen as a
result of his tight hug on Donald Trump (though he’s countered that with a
kitchen sink strategy that included comments about him siding with President
Obama, something POTUS himself even scoffed).
I’m going to say, though, that while all of these need to go blue to win
back the House (spoiler alert: I don’t think the Democrats can take the House),
I’m going to guess only the 10th and 25th go to the
Democrats, with Valadao and Issa dodging a coattails loss. Democrats +2
Colorado
President: Though
her support has occasionally been a bit soft, Hillary Clinton has led in every
major poll coming out of Colorado. Part
of why I have been so confident in Clinton is that she has had a bit of a
stranglehold on Virginia and Colorado; combined with New Mexico, New Hampshire,
and all of the states won by Democrats the past four elections, that’s the
White House. The fact that the rug
hasn’t fallen out here is a crucial reminder of how difficult Trump has had it
since he couldn’t replicate the success of George W. Bush here or in the Old
Dominion.
Senate: Sen.
Michael Bennet surprised a lot of people (me included) six years ago when he
pulled off a surprise victory while many of his peers were losing six years
ago. As a result of that, some of us
thought this might be competitive, but Republican Darryl Glenn has been an
embarrassment for the party and greatly underperformed expectations. This will be a much easier ride for Bennet
into a third term.
House: Democrats
should be commended for landing a strong candidate in the third district, but
State Sen. Gail Schwartz needed a bigger margin that Clinton will likely get
nationally in order to take on Scott Tipton in the conservative 3rd district. A much more achievable option is the 6th,
where Rep. Mike Coffman (R) is in the fight for his political life against
State Sen. Minority Leader Morgan Carroll.
When I was talking about coattails that Clinton could have up-top, this
is one of the races I was thinking of, as if there is any sort of Democratic
wave it’s difficult to see Coffman winning, but in a neutral environment I
think he takes it. If Hillary even wins
by five I think this is over with, and I do, so (against what I was planning on
doing when I started writing this article), I’m betting ever-so-slightly on
Carroll. I’m not confident, but the
fundamentals seem to favor her ever-so-slightly Democrats +1
Connecticut
President: It may
be one of the more conservative states in New England, but as college-educated
white voters seem to be Trump’s Achilles heel, this will be an easy victory for
Clinton.
Senate: Remember
when Linda McMahon ran for the Senate and spent like $100 million only to lose
by staggering margins? Yeah, that was
hilarious. Also, Richard Blumenthal will
be winning a second term.
Delaware
President: The
home of Vice President Joe Biden hasn’t failed for the Democrats in decades,
and it won’t this year. Easy win for
HRC.
Governor: Since
the death of Attorney General Beau Biden, the Democrats’ second choice for the
vacant governor’s seat, Rep. John Carney, has been the frontrunner and eight
years after he initially wanted the job, will win the governor’s mansion.
House: With
Carney moving into his new digs in Dover, Delaware is near-certain to end its
long, long streak of having never sent a woman to Congress as Lisa Blunt
Rochester will succeed him. Only
Mississippi and Vermont now have never sent a woman to Congress.
District of Columbia
President: It’s
only three votes and it’s so blue it becomes a footnote in most elections, but
it’s worth noting that DC will deliver its three electoral votes to Hillary
Clinton. As it could get close
nationally, every bit matters.
 |
| Stephanie Murphy (D-FL) |
Florida
President: A
chill still sits in my spine every time I think about Florida and the
presidential race, and calling it. Even
16 years later, I suspect every Democrat looks to Florida with a sense of
foreboding, thinking of what will happen.
Since I’ve called a couple of races that were going either way for the
Democrats so far, I am headed a different direction here. I could make a very strong case for Hillary
Clinton winning in Florida, but early voting numbers here are not as strong as
they should be (African-American turnout in particular is down), and as a
result I think I’m going to predict a major victory for Trump in the Sunshine
State. This isn’t the end of the road
for Democrats (thanks to advances in the map since 2000, it’s more a must-win
for the GOP than both sides), but this would be a huge victory for Trump.
Senate: This
races infuriates me, so we’re going to make this brief. The DSCC and particularly Sen. Chuck Schumer,
for whatever reason have decided that they want to abandon Rep. Patrick Murphy,
despite polls showing a close election and Sen. Marco Rubio being a likely Republican
nominee for president in 2020 if he wins.
I keep having nightmares of Nevada in 2012, where Shelley Berkley’s
close margin of defeat probably could have been erased with more effort from
national Democrats. If Murphy loses by a
similar margin, you’ll hear the profanity coming from my apartment. Either way, though, Rubio is likely to avoid
the end of his career this year thanks in part to Democratic incompetence.
House: Like
California, this race is going to be a major player in whether the Democrats
win big gains in the House. It’s worth
noting that, thanks to mid-decade redistricting, Democrats and Republicans have
likely swapped the 2nd and 10th districts, as Rep. Gwen
Graham retired, giving the GOP her seat and Rep. Dan Webster abandoned the 10th
so Democrats will take that. I am so
reluctant to say this (though not based on polls), but it does appear like
Charlie Crist will finally deliver a victory for the Democrats, this time in
the 13th district, defeating Rep. David Jolly. The other three competitive seats could go a
variety of ways. Florida’s 26th
is the Florida Democratic Party proving that they are arguably the most
incompetent state party in the country (after the Ohio Democrats, of course),
as they nominated controversial former Rep. Joe Garcia, who I don’t think will
be able to overcome the Trump hate in his district to win. The 18th district, left open by
Rep. Patrick Murphy, is the opposite of AZ-1, as the Democrats here nominated
the controversial candidate (Randy Perkins has been called the Democratic
Donald Trump, and no, that’s not a compliment), and so I think that we’ll see
Brian Mast do something very rare in 2016-pick up a Democratic seat. And finally, there’s the 7th, and
here’s the seat I think could genuinely turn the tables for the Democrats-in
what has been a bizarre race, a last minute candidacy (almost always a recipe
for defeat) has resulted in Stephanie Murphy coming close to defeating one of
the longest-serving Republicans in Congress, John Mica. Mica has never had a competitive race, but
he’s got a lot of new voters as a result of redistricting, and I think could be
ripe for defeat. Slight Murphy, but
Mica’s long-time in Congress should help somewhat. All told that, leaves us
with: Democrats +1
Georgia
President: Unlike
Arizona, I’m not quite as torn here over who will win. Hillary Clinton has seen some solid poll
numbers in the state, but not so many that she’s willing to make the trip
herself, and I think if this were truly on the table, she’d have gone to Atlanta
or something. Trump gets an
embarrassingly low number of votes and the Democrats get a path to victory in
2020 or 2024, but this stays red.
Senate: I suspect
that this will go to a runoff thanks to a third party candidate and unexpected
strength from Hillary Clinton atop the ballot, but that’s not going to change
the end result: Sen. Johnny Isakson will win a third term.
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