North Dakota
President: Trump’s
backing of the oil industry probably sealed the deal here-easy win for the
businessman.
Governor: When
Heidi Heitkamp decided against running here, it likely meant the end of the
Democrats chances of converting this seat.
Businessman Doug Burgum will win this for the GOP handily.
 |
| Sen. Rob Portman (R-OH) |
President: With
the presidential race tightening in the last few days, something’s going to
give for Clinton-if Trump improves at all, you have to see a few swing states
fall his direction. My hunch is that one
of them will be the Buckeye State.
Though long a bellwether for the nation, the dynamics of this race mean
that a state like Pennsylvania is more likely to pick the winner (considering
its combination of blue-collar workers but a more diverse urban population)
than its neighbor. That’s why I think
it’ll be Trump winning here, making every Democrat watching that much more
uncomfortable. Clinton should not be
discounted-if the FBI reveals don’t mean anything this could still happen, but
I just don’t have the confidence here and think that Florida and even Iowa
would flip back to her before Ohio, whose days as a bellwether might soon be
over.
Senate: The Ohio
Democratic Party needs to take a long, hard look in the mirror. Two years after an embarrassing and
ridiculously bad performance in the governor’s race, it now appears likely that
a former governor is going to fall to Sen. Rob Portman by 15-points, despite
not being involved in even a hint of a scandal.
The state is still competitive on a presidential level, but the state
party desperately needs to find a way to crack the code on how to win here
before Sherrod Brown becomes Mark Pryor.
Oklahoma
President: Tailor-made
state for Trump, potentially his biggest margin of victory (give or take West
Virginia).
Senate: James
Lankford, the Senate’s resident redhead, will win an easy reelection. Also, Jim Inhofe is still a senator and
that’s just unforgivable.
Oregon
President: While
it’s always the least Democratic of the three West Coast states, there’s absolutely
no sign of Trump making inroads here.
Clinton takes the seven electoral votes.
Governor: Gov.
Kate Brown, who took over for scandal-plagued incumbent John Kitzhaber, should
have no trouble winning a full-term in office after taking over suddenly in
2015.
Senate: Ron
Wyden’s running for reelection-who knew?
He’ll get a fifth term with ease.
 |
| Katie McGinty (D-PA) |
President: You
know that butterfly feeling I had with the North Carolina race-it goes over
tenfold with Pennsylvania. That’s
because it’s nearly impossible to imagine the next president of the United
States winning the White House without the Keystone State (if you live here and
don’t vote, I don’t know what to do with you).
Hillary Clinton has led in literally every single major poll here since
July, and so it would be foolhardy to assume that this won’t go to her, though
it’s worth noting that this wasn’t the best of President Obama’s states and
there are portions of the state that aren’t going to be thrilled with her
energy policy stances. That being said,
Philadelphia and its suburbs seem like enough for Clinton to win the state’s 20
electoral votes, which could well mean Clinton becomes the first female
president.
Senate: No
politician in the country outside of perhaps Tim Kaine and Clinton herself is
cheering harder for a big night for the former First Lady than Katie McGinty,
who in fact worked in the Clinton White House.
McGinty is running against Sen. Pat Toomey who has run the better
campaign of the two (McGinty fell prey to a few unforced errors and is not a
natural at retail politicking), but that might not matter if Clinton wins by
enough. It is starting to look more and
more likely that McGinty is the rare candidate who can match Clinton in terms
of coattails (their numbers have pulled even, and they’re both about five
points up). It could go either way (like
I said, McGinty isn’t a particularly strong candidate and hasn’t made a firm
connection with the electorate), but the fundamentals favor McGinty, so I’m
going with her. Democrats +1
House: Perhaps
rivaling only Michigan-1 in terms of lack of polling is Pennsylvania’s 8th
district, an open swing seat that Mitt Romney won by literally .1% of the
vote. Literally, I cannot find any
recent polling in this race, one that everyone (including I) consider a tossup. My gut says that when there’s no polling to
give it to the incumbent party (in this case Brian Fitzpatrick, brother of the
incumbent which probably will help if people don’t look at the ballot very
closely), but man do I wish I had something to base that on, particularly
considering it’s possible Clinton wins the district herself. The 16th is a pet project of mine,
as Christina Hartman (D) has fast-emerged as a talent versus State Sen. Lloyd
Smucker. Hartman has closed the race
fast, and has momentum (and suddenly a lot of money), and seems to be a
dynamite campaigner (if she wins, expect her to be a candidate for statewide
office not far into the future), but this race inherently favors the
Republicans. This is another race that
could be a harbinger of a good night for the Democrats, but I’m sticking with
Smucker for now.
Rhode Island
President: Arguably
the most liberal of all of the New England states, Rhode Island will be an easy
victory for Hillary Clinton.
South Carolina
President: There
has been talk for weeks that Clinton could be able to break through here, and
polling has agreed. However, I think as
things return to normal, only 1-2 states that aren’t traditional “swing” states
will remain in play, and South Carolina won’t be one of them. Trump, but by a small enough margin that he should
be embarrassed.
Senate: Incumbent
Tim Scott has only a nominal opponent and should win another term quite
handily.
South Dakota
President: My gut
says that we’ll soon see South Dakota become more liberal than North Dakota
(with a burgeoning population in the eastern half of the state that is more
liberal than the remainder of the state), but it won’t be by enough to best
Trump.
Senate: The best
I can say here is that the Democrats actually put up a challenger to Thune this
cycle.
House: State Rep.
Paula Hawks put up a fine campaign, and actually managed to get some national
press, but Rep. Kristi Noem seems pretty set to win this seat again.
Tennessee
President: Remember
in 2000 when Al Gore nearly won his home state?
Yeah, the Volunteer State has become next to impossible in the years
since-not even Andrew Jackson could win now as a Democrat.
Texas
President: Oh,
the squeals of glee from Democrats as they look at Texas, the Lone Star State,
potentially unable to be called immediately on election night. Yes, while I don’t quite think she’ll get
there, Hillary Clinton will likely get closer to winning Texas than any Democratic
candidate since 1992, and in the process add hundreds of thousands of popular
votes to her count that Barack Obama never had.
While that technically doesn’t count for anything, as long as she hits
270, it’s sure as hell going to help her mandate.
House: The big
thing that Clinton’s win could do is help Texas’s 23rd congressional
district. Here we have a genuine tossup
race, with Rep. Will Hurd (R) running against former Rep. Pete Gallego in a
rematch. As the only swing district in
Texas, it constantly gains attention (and has changed hands every two years for
the past eight), but a surge in Hispanic voters in the district, particularly
in reaction to Trump, should help the popular Gallego. My guess is that Clinton’s consolation prize
from losing Texas by a short margin will be getting her party this seat in the
process. Democrats +1
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