Hawaii
President: Even
without favorite son Barack Obama on the ballot, this will likely be one of the
best Hillary Clinton states on the map.
Senate: It will
be weird for Sen. Brian Schatz to not be on the ballot for the first time in
years come 2018, as he will finally win a full six-year term in the Senate on
Tuesday.
Idaho
President: I do
think that Evan McMullin might hold Trump below 50% of the vote, but this isn’t
Utah-Trump gets a very easy victory.
Senate: Sen. Mike
Crapo isn’t going to win a Profile in Courage Award for going back-and-forth on
his Trump endorsement, but he’ll surely win a fourth term in the Senate anyway.
 |
| Rep. Tammy Duckworth (D-IL) |
Illinois
President: The
Land of Lincoln will give their favorite daughter a proud win, likely by a
number similar to that enjoyed by Barack Obama four years ago.
Senate: The
Democrats’ easiest Senate pickup opportunity got a lot easier when incumbent
Sen. Mark Kirk made a racist remark directly to Rep. Tammy Duckworth’s face
during a debate last week. Duckworth’s
been inevitable all cycle, but this probably got her close to double digits. Democrats +1
House: The DCCC’s
biggest recruiting miss has to be Illinois, where the 12th and 13th
both were possibilities that never went anywhere. The same cannot be said for the 10th,
which features the third consecutive rematch between incumbent Rep. Bob Dold
(R) and former Rep. Brad Schneider.
Though Dold has strongly stood against Trump all cycle, I don’t think
that will be enough-this is a very blue district, one Clinton is likely to win
in a big way, and with support melting for Kirk you could make the argument
there’s no pressing reason for the GOP to GOTV.
Democrats +1
Indiana
President: While
it may be closer than 2012, I see no reason to think that a repeat of 2008 will
happen here, mortifying Mike Pence in his bid for the Eisenhower Building. Trump holds, probably by 5-7 points.
Governor: One of
the bigger surprises of the past few weeks has been the robust strength that
we’re seeing for House Speaker John Gregg.
Whether it’s Trump fatigue, Pence fatigue, ambivalence about Lt. Gov.
Eric Holcolmb, or perhaps just wanting a new party in the statehouse after
Republicans being in charge for twelve years, it seems very likely the
Democrats will get a surprise pickup in Indiana, something no one would have
guessed two months ago. Democrats +1
Senate: In
literally any other cycle, Evan Bayh would be losing. Despite being a popular former senator and
governor, he has endured a mountain of scandals from his time in office and his
period of lobbying, stuff that would normally bring down most candidates. That being said, he’s never been behind in a
poll, not one, and it’s borderline unprecedented for a candidate to lose in
that situation. It’s quite possible
that, despite him doing basically everything possible to toss away a race he
surely could have clobbered in, we’ll end up seeing Evan Bayh still eke out a
victory. But I can’t quite predict it-the
momentum is with Rep. Todd Young, and though he has yet to lead in a poll, I’m
getting a Heidi Heitkamp/Rick Berg sort of vibe here. Republicans win, barely.
House: If the
Democrats are going to win the House, the canary in the coal mine is the 9th
district of the Hoosier State. There you
have Trey Hollingsworth, a Tennessee native who just moved to Indiana last year
and has been largely relying upon finances from his father to set up his
business career (the Trump parallels have been made by the
left…repeatedly). The Democrats have the
better candidate in Shelly Yoder, a county commissioner and former Miss
Indiana. If Yoder is able to win, it
might be an indication that the Democrats are doing better than I anticipated,
and a few of the tossups I went with the GOP on could be more in play than I
thought. However, the fundamentals of
the seat favor Hollingsworth, and there’s no obvious sign of a Democratic wave
so I’m sticking to a GOP hold.
 |
| Monica Vernon (D-IA) |
Iowa
President: Clinton
has started closing the gap here in recent days, with some polls showing her
tied even though this has consistently been the Obama ’12 state most likely to
flip red. I’m thinking the fundamentals
of the race have to favor Trump-the number of white working-class voters here
are not balanced out like in states such as Nevada or North Carolina with a
high minority population, so I’m going with Trump. I wouldn’t be stunned, though, if this state
came home to Clinton.
Senate: For a
brief second there it looked like Sen. Chuck Grassley might be vulnerable, and
it’s probable that he’ll have his closest reelection in thirty years. However, he’ll be headed back to DC, likely
to decide on the Merrick Garland vote, shortly.
House: The
question here becomes-are the Republicans in the middle of a realignment moment
in the Hawkeye State similar to one undergone by Arkansas in recent years
(where the dynamics of the state shift it swiftly to the right), or is Trump
just a rare candidate that can appeal to white working-class voters? We’ll probably discover that here in the
first district. While the third district
seems off-the-table (Rep. David Young’s done a pretty good job establishing
himself after a surprise win two years ago), the first district pitting Rep.
Rod Blum (R) against Democrat Monica Vernon should favor Vernon. This is a seat that went heavily toward Barack
Obama, and is likely to go to Clinton even if she loses statewide. However, Blum has done quite well in polling
and has turned a lean Democratic race into a tossup. The question here is how much has the
district changed since 2012? I’m
guessing not enough to save Blum, so I’m going with Vernon because on paper
this should be a home run for her, but if she can’t win this cycle, it’s likely
this seat is Blum’s as long as he wants it. Democrats +1
Kansas
President: They
might not be happy about it (Trump has underperformed in most plains states),
but they’ll still vote for Donald Trump once again in the Sunflower State.
Senate: Like I’ve
said before, if I have to look up if you have a Senate race, you probably are
going to win reelection. Sen. Jerry Moran
gets a second term.
House: The third
district, like Indiana’s 9th, is one that would be essential to a
Pelosi speakership. Kansas doesn’t love
Trump, and the third district is actually in a strange situation where it
probably will vote for Clinton despite it being a Mitt Romney district four
years ago. It’s worth noting that the
Democrat (Jay Sidie) hasn’t hidden from his Democratic tag, despite that being
a liability, welcoming an endorsement from President Obama. I think this stays red, but like IN-9 and
CA-49, it’s not out of the question that this goes to the left (Rep. Dennis
Moore, a Democrat, held this district for years before retiring). Keep an eye on it.
Kentucky
President: Trump’s
biggest gains will surely be in Appalachian States like Kentucky, where his
coal-friendly campaign style and rapport with non-college educated white voters
will be a big plus. Trump in a
landslide.
Senate: Interesting
fact: Rand Paul still exists. Also, he’s
going to win reelection.
Louisiana
President: Most
of the South isn’t Georgia and it certainly isn’t North Carolina, so expect a
strong victory for Trump in Louisiana.
Senate: In a race
you should probably watch only because it’ll be interesting to see what
happens, Louisiana has what is known as a “jungle primary,” where the top two
finishers advance to a December runoff.
This is interesting for three reasons.
One, former KKK Grand Wizard David Duke is running in the district, and
has been trying to turn the ugliest parts of Donald Trump’s support base into a
way for him to win a surprise spot in the runoff, but thankfully that isn’t
happening. Two, the Democrats actually
only have two major candidates to the Republicans having four that have more
than 5% of the vote-that could, theoretically, open up a situation where the
Democrats both advance to the runoff.
It’s unlikely, as the leading Republican John Kennedy has taken a
nominal lead over Reps. John Fleming and Charles Boustany on the right side,
but it’s not impossible that Democrats Foster Campbell and Caroline Fayard (in
some polls running second and third), could somehow advance past Kennedy if the
Republicans target him pretty heavily in the last few days, setting up a truly
bizarre pickup for the DSCC. However, It
will more than likely be Campbell losing to Kennedy, which gives us our third
surprise: John Kennedy, on his third attempt at the Senate, is finally going to
win, and so America will have a John Kennedy once more in the Senate. And this time he’s a conservative, southern
Republican.
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