And here we are-the last of our five-part series of write-ups predicting the Oscars. Like I said, I suspect we'll be getting back into the field a bit more before the nominations are actually decided, but most of the major precursors have been announced so we definitely have as good of a handle as we're going to get on the field before we actually learn who is about to have the high point of their career. If you missed past write-ups, they are here:
visual,
aural,
acting, and
directing/writing. Now, onto the Best Pictures...
Picture
The thing to always keep in mind is that with the new "between 5-10" race that's been happening for the Best Picture field, we could end up with any number of contenders. Since we'll at least have five, let's get those out of the way.
The Imitation Game has Harvey backing it, and even last year when most of Harvey's films bombed he still landed a spot for Philomena.
Boyhood and
Birdman have split the critics prizes pretty much evenly, and there's no reason to doubt either of them. With both of its leads looking to land nominations,
The Theory of Everything has that
As Good As It Gets feel of a film that can't be taken down. And finally there's
Selma, which is riding both a huge crest of support at nomination time and a feeling that the movie is quite "relevant" to voters.
Outside of those five, however, I don't know what's going to happen. I am genuinely curious to see how Sony's contenders, for example, end up playing-will AMPAS voters, who are savvier than the public about knowing what films are from which studio, support the studio after they canned
The Interview (a choice that can't be popular with the artists in Hollywood). If so, movies like
Whiplash, Foxcatcher, and
Mr. Turner, movies that otherwise would have a strong chance at one of the 6-10 slots, could end up losing out on momentum.
The Grand Budapest Hotel has been gaining great steam after an impressive run at the Globes and the SAG Awards, and if Wes Anderson does indeed make the Best Director list as I predicted yesterday, this could also be nominated (I suspect that
Moonrise Kingdom was tenth place in its year, so Anderson has been on the cusp for a while now). David Fincher's movies have been doing well with AMPAS in recent years, and
Gone Girl was a major hit in a category that is begging for one. Warner Brothers doesn't have a horse in the Top 5 race, but it might try to push one of its movies like
Inherent Vice or in particular
American Sniper into the race so that it's not left in the cold. Disney ran an awful campaign last year with
Saving Mr. Banks, but don't entirely shut out
Into the Woods as a result of that. I suspect that if Harvey really wanted to make a push for the film
St. Vincent is the sort of movie that might play well with older AMPAS voters (it did better-than-expected with precursors). Major kudos for the lead actors could push films like
Wild, Still Alice, or
Nightcrawler into the spotlight, and though his film was considered a disappointment, Christopher Nolan made it for
Inception and could theoretically make it again with
Interstellar. Finally there's
Unbroken, a movie that has clearly lost its shot at winning the big trophy, but may be too large to completely dismiss in a race that allows for up-to ten pictures.
My Predictions (I'm going with nine...until Oscar proves otherwise that seems like the sweet spot number): Birdman, Boyhood, Gone Girl, The Grand Budapest Hotel, The Imitation Game, Selma, The Theory of Everything, Unbroken, Whiplash
Foreign Language Film
The short list has been announced, which means that we know films like Canada's
Mommy and Belgium's
Two Days, One Night are not going to get their anticipated nominations. I suspect that the other major frontrunners, however, will, and
Ida (Poland) and
Force Majeure (Sweden) both make the final cut. Seven films remain for the final three slots, with a lot of potential for first-time-nominated countries: Estonia (
Tangerines), Mauritania (
Timbuktu), and Venezuela (
The Liberator) are all competing for their first nominations (Venezuela,
as we wrote a few months back, has been waiting a LONG time for this recognition).
Leviathan, a critically-acclaimed masterwork from Russia, won raves from Cannes, but might be a little bit too "complicated" for this category which goes a bit more middle-of-the-road. A film like
Wild Tales from Argentina could play well, as that country has done strongly here in the past, as has the Netherlands, though there's not a lot of heat coming from
Accused. And this category is occasionally completely out of left field, so it wouldn't be too shocking if the clear ninth place (Georgia's
Corn Island) ended up with a surprise nomination.
My Predictions: Force Majeure, Ida, The Liberator, Tangerines, Timbuktu
Animated Feature
The Globes did little to help with predicting here, as we saw the five frontrunning English-language films land nods, but traditionally at least one foreign language film eventually scores with Oscar. It's hard to imagine that
The Lego Movie or
Big Hero 6 miss at this point, as the former is the clear frontrunner and the latter is animation powerhouse Disney's only real contender.
How to Train Your Dragon 2 underwhelmed in a major way, both with the box office and with audiences, but some key pundits cannot stop talking about it and in a year where there's not much else going on, I suspect it's one of the five. The final slots, though, seem to be a battle between four films. Laika has made it in both of its past attempts, but people seem to be less enthused about
The Boxtrolls, and it will take the film's universally celebrated technical aspects to carry it over the edge.
The Book of Life wasn't what you'd consider a commercial or critical success, but it did land that fifth Globe slot and this category isn't as obsessed with box office as some others are (at least when it comes to who is nominated). GKids, which has become an almost default nominee in this field since its stunning inclusion five years ago for
The Secret of Kells, has two major contenders:
The Tale of Princess Kaguya (which has been dominating the critics prizes that didn't go to
The Lego Movie) and
Song of the Sea (which had a great showing at the Annie Awards). Any of these four could make it in the final two slots, but for now I'm guessing...
My Predictions: Big Hero 6, The Boxtrolls, How to Train Your Dragon 2, The Lego Movie, The Tale of Princess Kaguya
Documentary Feature
The shortlist has come out after another stirring and superb year for the documentary. Certain films like
Citizenfour and
The Overnighters have taken the bulk of the critical love this year, though there's clearly some sentiment to
Life Itself, an emotionally powerful look at the life of Roger Ebert. Frequently it's important to look at the actual subject matter of these films, and that could leave a film like
The Last Days of Vietnam (about the Vietnam War),
Virunga (about the struggles for natural resources in the Congo),
The Case Against 8 (gay marriage), or
The Kill Team (about PTSD with American soldiers) with a leg-up over some of the other contenders.
Finding Vivian Meyer was one of the biggest documentary hits of the year, so I wouldn't totally count that out, and
Keep on Keepin' On (about a jazz prodigy mentoring a blind student) could be the "softer subject" nominee that usually comes each year. There's also the chance that film legend Wim Wenders scores his third Oscar nomination with
The Salt of the Earth (both his citations have come in this category before).
My Predictions: Citizenfour, The Overnighters, The Last Days of Vietnam, Life Itself, Virunga
And there you have it folks-my predictions in all of the Oscar categories. What are your thoughts on the predictions? What are you expecting to see and what will surprise? Share in the comments!
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