Saturday, December 20, 2014

December Oscar Predictions: Aural Categories

Yesterday we took a look at the visual categories for the Oscars, and so today it makes sense that we investigate the auditory categories, the four awards that go to what you hear.  You know the drill if you read yesterday's post (and if not, click on over and get started at the beginning, a very good place to start) and so let's begin!

Original Score

This year appears to be the year of Alexandre Desplat.  Desplat has an astounding five eligible films out, and while it's easy to dismiss The Monuments Men and Godzilla as also-rans, his last three contenders all have Best Picture buzz going for them: The Imitation Game, The Grand Budapest Hotel, and Unbroken.  It's worth noting that you can be nominated as many times as you want in this category and that Desplat, a 6-time Oscar nominee, has never won the trophy so I suspect he'll make it for at least two citations, if not all three.  The music branch is notoriously cliquey with this category, and so it's a good bet to go with past nominees and then maybe one first-timer (who inevitably goes on to win, which is why someone like Desplat collects nominations like Tic Tacs but never actually scores a trophy).  While perpetual nominee John Williams doesn't have an eligible score this year, several favorites in the category have major contenders.  Hans Zimmer's Interstellar recently landed him a Globe nomination, and while AMPAS runs a bit hot and cold with him, they may want to make up for his high profile snub last year.  Marco Beltrami has The Homesman and has scored random nominations when the film didn't have a chance before (as has Thomas Newman for The Judge), though neither man has the "must nominate" stamp that someone like Williams has (though Newman comes close after Saving Mr. Banks last year).  Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross have become surprisingly strong contenders with the Oscars in recent years (AMPAS's rare foray into modern music) and so Gone Girl isn't out of the question.  Since there's usually at least one first-timer, look out for Johan Johannsson's The Theory of Everything, which has the sort of lush and flowing score that usually can grab you a first-time nomination.  Other than Johannsson, no one else quite calls out to me for the "first-timer" slot, though it's worth noting that there's a number of additional former nominees that could randomly make it if AMPAS is feeling like they need an invite back: Danny Elfman (Big Eyes), Alberto Iglesias (Exodus: Gods and Kings), A.R. Rahman (The Hundred-Foot Journey), James Newton Howard (Maleficent), and Howard Shore (Rosewater) all spring to mind.

My Predictions: Gone Girl, The Imitation Game, Interstellar, The Theory of Everything, Unbroken

Original Song

As Alone Yet Not Alone proved last year, trying to predict what happens in this category is a completely pointless endeavor, but I'll give it a shot anyway.  Despite a surprise exclusion from the Globes, I still feel like "Lost Stars" in Begin Again is going to be a nominee-it's too central to the plot and critically-acclaimed for them to completely ignore the film (though I do think the producers should have submitted two songs, as the film could have gotten a pair of nominations considering the relative dearth of contenders this year).  I suspect that with its likely Best Picture nomination that something like "Glory" from Selma (which could well get the Globe win) will nab Common and John Legend their first Oscar nominations, and the same could be said for "Mercy Is" from Noah (sung by the legendary Patti Smith, pictured above).  Though she missed for "Grateful" at the Golden Globes, six-time nominee Diane Warren is always a threat, and Beyond the Lights may want to find some sort of cache in the season.  Coldplay tried and failed last year with "Atlas" from Catching Fire, but could be back with "Miracles" from Unbroken (though that film's nomination count is very much in flux right now).  Continuing a weird trend for AMPAS, the Globes once again nominated The Hunger Games with Lorde's "Yellow Flicker Beat" but despite names like Taylor Swift and Coldplay surrounding the films in the past, the Oscars haven't taken a look at this massively successful franchise.  The Globes also went with Annie and "Opportunity" and as a result we shouldn't really discount the song, though that feels like the sort of thing that happens at the Globes and not the Oscars (the same with Lana del Rey's "Big Eyes").  In the past The Lord of the Rings was able to score multiple song nominations, but The Hobbit hasn't been able to duplicate that trick despite two attempts, and "The Last Goodbye" will probably be passed over as a result.  If the Academy is feeling sentimental they may go with Glen Campbell's farewell song "Not Going to Miss Me" in his documentary (it's worth noting that if nostalgia is rife with AMPAS, and occasionally it is, 45 years ago Campbell sang another Oscar-nominated song in True Grit).  And finally there's always the ear candy hook of "Everything is Awesome" from The Lego Movie if AMPAS voters can't get it out of their head.

My Predictions: Begin Again, Beyond the Lights, The Lego Movie, Noah, Selma

Sound Mixing

Here's where I'm gong to defer a bit to insiders-I have read that Interstellar, which I would normally consider a slam dunk in this category is being (rightfully) disregarded in this category due to a number of technical issues with the sound mixing, and as a result while it's definitely in the running, I'm not going there quite yet.  Where I am going is the musicals.  This category famously loves musicals, and as a result I'm assuming that Into the Woods is not only a lock, but could well be a winner.  A lot of sites are really high on Get on Up, but doesn't that film feel a little bit ancient at this point?  It could well score (two musicals isn't unprecedented here), but I'm going to put a pin in that for now.  If Clint Eastwood manages to make any sort of indent on the Oscars this year, the sound categories are probably the place to start and so you should look out for American Sniper.  Franchises such as The Hobbit and Transformers have done marvelously here before (in the case of the latter film, they've never actually missed), but if fatigue sets in either of them could miss.  This is yet another category where the strength of something like Unbroken is going to be tested-if it does well in other categories, it could carry over here.  The same could be said for The Imitation Game or Selma, as Best Picture frontrunners frequently end up getting a random citation in this category (the same could be said for Whiplash, which has the added bonus of being musically-oriented).  The sound categories frequently pickup a film that may have been forgotten throughout the year, so don't completely forget about something like Fury, Godzilla, or Edge of Tomorrow, as they might randomly make the cut if the films have more cache than we expected.  And considering its gargantuan Box Office, this is one of the few categories where Guardians of the Galaxy has a shot to pull a surprise nomination if Hollywood is feeling thankful for a new franchise.

My Predictions: American Sniper, Into the Woods, Transformers: Age of Extinction, Unbroken, Whiplash

Sound Editing

The differences between Sound Mixing always seem to matter a bit more when it comes to nominations (so frequently they end up being won by the same film).  It's important to note that musicals and Best Picture winners are MUCH more likely to score a coattail nomination in Mixing than in Sound Editing, where they're far bigger sticklers for action movies, effects films, and anything related to transportation.  That last point is probably where Godzilla may make its biggest dent.  The constant tanks, planes, and cars involved in the film make this category easily its best shot at a nomination.  War films like Fury and Unbroken definitely have a leg-up in this regard, as does a space film like Interstellar (which won't have the same sort of technical clucking that it will in Sound Mixing).  American Sniper could pull a Lone Survivor and get its only two nominations in the Sound category after initially being considered for a larger pool of categories.  The Hobbit and Transformers have similar sorts of questions as in Mixing-is the Academy tired of them (in which case there's plenty of other options) or will they go once more to that well (in which case these are serious contenders)?  Guardians of the Galaxy may make it if the film has as many fans in the Academy as it does in theaters, though The Avengers wasn't able to score for this category, and that was considerably more popular.  And finally, because I think it's a fascinating story, I wonder if others will be drawn to the way that Noah used real life sounds from storms (some of the tracks were actually from Hurricane Sandy) and give it a surprise nod?

My Predictions: American Sniper, Fury, Godzilla, Interstellar, Unbroken

Those are my sound categories, next we'll tackle acting, but in the meantime what are your thoughts about these categories?  Any films you think I missed the boat on?  Any films that you expect to do better or worse?  And what film do you still need to see that you're sure will score here?  Share in the comments!

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