December Oscar Predictions: Directing & Writing

We have now run through the visual, aural, and acting categories as we swing into the final bit of Oscar predictions (all of which are actually going to happen in December-bravo to John for actually finishing a project when he said he would!) , and so today we'll tackle the directing and writing categories (click the links I just gave you if you're behind on any of the categories!

Director

This field feels really weird this year, and it's perhaps because I'm not used to this lack of cohesion in the field.  The DGA is still to come, but that's not always a great indicator for this particular category (historically it's actually better at guessing Best Picture nominations).  Still, there's a couple of names that are clearly out in front, namely Richard Linklater (Boyhood), Ava DuVernay (Selma), and Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu (Birdman) who have the three films most likely to graduate to a Best Picture win and the ones that seem to have all of the buzz at the moment.  DuVernay is the newest to the club, but is getting massive plaudits in a way that, say, Morton Tyldum (The Imitation Game), another likely contender isn't, so I feel safer betting on her (were she to be nominated, she would become the fifth woman to compete in this category and the first black woman to do so).  The final slot is a huge crapshoot though (and this is asuming Tyldum is safe, which I wouldn't say that he is).  We could end up going the route of one of other major Best Picture nominees: Damien Chazelle (Whiplash) and James Marsh (The Theory of Everything) definitely have films that are gunning for the top spot, and as a result they could fall in with this category (a strong Best Picture has landed many a milquetoast director a citation in the past).  If their films are stronger than they appear, I wouldn't doubt, say, Angelina Jolie (Unbroken) or Clint Eastwood (American Sniper), as this category loves an actor-turned-director (though Clint's more of a director at this stage isn't he?).  Past contenders in this field occasionally show up, so I wouldn't throw out Paul Thomas Anderson (Inherent Vice), Bennett Miller (Foxcatcher), David Fincher (Gone Girl), or especially Mike Leigh (Mr. Turner), the latter of which has actually pulled the "odd man in" slot before with Best Director in 2004.  And then of course there's Wes Anderson, who probably was bound to be nominated at some point for Best Director, and who has a resurgent contender in The Grand Budapest Hotel.  All of this is to say that even in a field this free, I doubt that Christopher Nolan (Interstellar) finally breaks his loser streak with nominations for Best Director.

My Predictions: Wes Anderson, Ava DuVernay, Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, Richard Linklater, Morton Tyldum

Original Screenplay

In a rare twist this year, it appears that Original Screenplay is actually far more competitive than the Adapted Screenplay race (it's nearly always the opposite), and so we have a plethora of contenders to deal with.  The reality is that all of the major contenders for Best Picture, save The Imitation Game, are here, and while Boyhood and Birdman are seen as writing triumphs, it's yet to be seen if people put Selma in that same category (though if it's a major overall player for nominations, it could easily skirt in with a coattail citation here-the Best Picture frontrunner rarely misses a writing nod).  There is a LOT of buzz going for Damian Chazelle at predictions websites basically begging AMPAS to give him a nomination for Whiplash, and that sort of push made Julianne Moore the Best Actress frontrunner so don't entirely discount the buzz here.  The same goes for Wes Anderson, who did in fact gain nominations here in 2001 and 2012, and so clearly is well-liked enough to make it again.  Love for both Foxcatcher and Nightcrawler is really strong right now, and this category really likes honoring directors who also wrote the scripts (which is the case for both, as well as under-the-radar A Most Violent Year).  I wouldn't entirely discount either Interstellar (Nolan has his backers, and has made it for writing twice before) or St. Vincent (which may have more momentum than anyone realizes after the SAG Awards and the Globes), though neither is something you'd particularly champion.  Mike Leigh has been nominated in this category five times without a win, so only a fool would completely disregard Mr. Turner.  And a lot of Hollywood is talking about Top Five, which could land Chris Rock his first nomination, though in a year this competitive he may just have to comfort himself with strong reviews (in a normal, less competitive year, I'd suspect we'd be hearing more about him).  All-in-all, though, this is a jam-packed race where I guarantee we'll see at least one surprise snub, if only because there's 6-7 films that would pundits have considered locks.

My Predictions: Birdman, Boyhood, The Grand Budapest Hotel, Mr. Turner, Whiplash

Adapted Screenplay

In a race this thin (and boy is it thin), the first thing to do is to acknowledge the Best Picture contenders, and so The Imitation Game and The Theory of Everything (likely one of them will end up winning), both should be at the top of any predictor's list.  I'd also throw Gone Girl in with that crowd.  Gillian Flynn's screenplay may not have followed the book as religiously as some fans may have wanted, but the Academy is going to want to throw its weight behind a novelist that adapts her own work.  Nick Hornby has been cited before in this category (if you'll recall, he won my OVP award that year) which should keep his name in the balance for Wild, though that film has almost no buzz outside of Reese and he could falter as a result.  The Coen Brothers should always be considered a threat, but they missed for Inside Llewyn Davis last year (despite most people predicting them) and even more pressing, Unbroken isn't remotely what you'd consider a "Coen Brothers" movie.  The reality is, though, if you go outside of those five films you get some weird contenders.  Paul Thomas Anderson (Inherent Vice) could make it, but for his least celebrated film since Hard Eight (though he might win plaudits for actually trying to adapt a Thomas Pynchon novel)?  Musicals usually do terribly in the writing categories, but in a truly sparse field could we see Into the Woods gain a slot?  If Clint's American Sniper is even remotely popular this would be an easy place to put it.  We could even see some out-there nominations for reputable if nowhere-near-Best-Picture type films like Still Alice, The Gambler, A Most Wanted Man, or Rosewater (lest we forget, Flight randomly got a writing nomination two years ago).  And animated films aren't entirely without precedence here, so The Lego Movie isn't out of the question.

My Predictions: Gone Girl, The Imitation Game, Inherent Vice, The Theory of Everything, Wild

And there you have it-tomorrow we'll finish up the December predictions (to quote Inherent Vice's trailer, "just in time for Christmas"), but before then-what do you think of these predictions?  Where am I off-base and where am I right on the money?  Share your thoughts in the comments!