December Oscar Predictions: Visual Categories

It's nearly Oscar nomination time, and so I'm going to be doing my final round of predictions over the next week (we've had three rants this week, so I'll be skipping our usual Friday discussion for a bit of the Academy).  After this we'll get the BAFTA and the rest of the guild nominations, and then I'll do my final, official predictions on the eve of nomination morning.  As always, it's most fun if you predict in the comments with me, so feel free to click that button!

Production Design (Art Direction)

It'll always be Art Direction to me, even though it's technically called Production Design now.  For this category, though, about the only thing to me that feels like a sure thing is Into the Woods.  Fantastical worlds, beautiful sets, and lots of different options, and Dennis Gassner is a regular in this category that usually gets in for far less BAIT-y projects.  Tim Burton projects always win when they are nominated here, but Big Eyes hasn't been able to get much press at all, and usually he has a stronger fantasy template to work with.  I think that with the increased visibility of The Grand Budapest Hotel that Adam Stockhausen, who broke through last year with an Oscar nomination for 12 Years a Slave should be able to double that count with Wes Anderson.  Maleficent has the advantage of a weaker than average year for fantasy worlds, so Dylan Cole/Gary Freeman may finally get their first citations.  It's hard to tell what the strengths of a film like Unbroken (big giant sets) or Interstellar (big giant worlds, most digital though) will be.  If they're still players in the Best Picture race it's not unthinkable to say that they won't score here, though categories like Cinematography or Visual Effects make more sense.  Exodus: Gods and Kings is certainly the sort of film that Oscar normally would go for (incredible world-building, which is very much en vogue in Production Design), but do they really want "Oscar-nominated" on this stinker?  Historically this category has borrowed quite a bit from the Costume category, so a nomination for Mr. Turner isn't unthinkable (and though they didn't go for Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy a few years back, I wouldn't rule out Best Picture frontrunner The Imitation Game).  And if in doubt, bet on Middle Earth: though the last installment missed, the previous four didn't, and I would imagine Dan Hennah still has a variety of supporters.

My Predictions: The Grand Budapest Hotel, Into the Woods, Maleficent, Mr. Turner, Unbroken

Cinematography

Pity Roger Deakins.  Every single year it seems like it might finally be "his year" all-the-while watching his films fall by the wayside to a more stately contender.  This seems to be happening this year with the fall of Unbroken as a Best Picture frontrunner, though I suspect Deakins, the most nominated living cinematographer without a win, will get yet another citation (going for the all-time record).  Gaining in his stead could well be last year's winner Emmanuel Lubezki, who does bravura work in Birdman that pretty much everyone has noticed (that long shot is wildly celebrated).  Hoyte van Hoytema has constantly been on the verge of a nomination, and with Wally Pfister not being behind Interstellar this year, he may FINALLY make the cut (I was so certain he'd make it last year for Her, though, so I am keeping my hopes for both he and Greig Fraser's Foxcatcher tempered).  Dick Pope hasn't been invited back since his surprise nomination seven years ago, but Mr. Turner has been getting absolute raves for its cinematography and if it's even somewhat big with Oscar I think he'll make it.  Bradford Young has a couple of different films that are eligible this year (including A Most Violent Year), but Selma is definitely his best shot, especially if the film picks up steam.  Benoit Delhomme is also another cinematographer that is trying to make his breakthough, with The Theory of Everything's noted golden hue potentially taking him over the finish line.  And of course if the fairly chummy branch wants to randomly honor one of their favorites, they have plenty to pick from: Bruno Delbonnel (Big Eyes), Dion Beebe (Into the Woods), Robert Elswit (Inherent Vice), Matthew Libatique (Noah), and Rodrigo Prieto (The Homesman) all have made it before and could do it again.

My Predictions: Birdman, Interstellar, Mr. Turner, The Theory of Everything, Unbroken

Costume Design

The costume designers' branch is arguably the most fun of the visual categories, not because I love costumes most of any aesthetic aspect of film (I'd lean toward Cinematography) or because they make the craziest decisions (that'd be Makeup), but because they're the least likely to hold things like Box Office or Best Picture nominations into account when making their decisions.  They have their hang-ups, of course (not enough modern ware, too focused on period dramas), but by-and-large they are more likely to honor a film that has completely been forgotten like WE or Anonymous than another branch would be in the face of such failed reviews or Box Office.

As a result, I wouldn't totally discount the critically-lambasted Exodus: Gods and Kings which features work by Oscar-winner Janty Yates (who won for another Ridley Scott epic fourteen years ago, Gladiator)-if it becomes Oscar-nominated, it will happen here before anywhere else.  A more likely contender would be Colleen Atwood, who is near certain to add an eleventh Oscar nomination (and possibly a fourth win) for Into the Woods (Atwood could theoretically double-nominate for Big Eyes, but I suspect they want to spread the wealth).  She'll have to face off against Anna B. Sheppard, who is still in the hunt for her first trophy but has a great fantasy feature in Maleficent.  Milena Cananero is another three-time Oscar winner who could make it for the brightly-colored threads featured in The Grand Budapest Hotel. Mark Bridges is another Oscar winner making a play, though his work in Inherent Vice might be too modern-they might be better off going with Jacqueline Durran for Mr. Turner, though that would be her first nomination that wasn't related to dressing Keira Knightley.  There's also Ruth E. Carter who could be back for a third nomination with Selma, though she inexplicably missed a few years ago for Inglourious Basterds.  Those are the likely nominees (all former contenders), though in a year with few period pieces the branch could surprise with an obscure feature like Grace of Monaco, Saint Laurent, Belle, or even The Immigrant, which would land six-time nominee Patricia Norris (who holds the record in the category for most nominations without a win) her seventh citation.

My Predictions: Exodus: Gods and Kings, The Grand Budapest Hotel, Into the Woods, Maleficent, Mr. Turner

Film Editing

As a general rule this is the easiest category to predict.  Go with four of the leading Best Picture contenders, add in a film that is clearly an editing showcase (likely a prestige action film) and you call it a day.  And that may well be where this goes.  I suspect we'll see Selma, Birdman, and Boyhood all make the cut, and with Oscar-winner William Goldenberg manning the ship, The Imitation Game could well be the fourth.  Goldenberg could be a double nominee (he did that two years ago with Argo and Zero Dark Thirty) if he makes it for Unbroken, but that film has fallen a bit and I don't quite see it making the cut without more oomph.  Another clear contender if the film does well with the Academy is Whiplash, which relies heavily on very obvious editing, which is a plus for this category.  The Theory of Everything or The Grand Budapest Hotel could be serious players if their films do better than expected, though neither is an obvious editing triumph.  I suspect that we're more likely to see something like Interstellar (Nolan films frequently get nominated here) or Fury (with 3-time nominee Jay Cassidy in charge) if we go too far off the Best Picture path.

My Predictions: Birdman, Boyhood, The Imitation Game, Selma, Whiplash

Makeup and Hairstyling


Without a doubt the weirdest and most difficult category to predict when it comes to the Oscars.  Honestly-a film can be a surefire contender and then it randomly skips.  Look at Into the Woods or The Hobbit this year-both seemed certain to make the Top 7, if not the Top 3, but when the bake-off was released neither of them were to be found.  Still, I suspect that even with it on the bakeoff a movie like Noah (where precisely was that makeup?) or The Amazing Spider-Man 2 (Jamie Foxx looked terrible in that movie) will probably be skipped for more traditional work (watch both of them make it-this is that kind of category).  My guesses are more along the lines of Guardians of the Galaxy (it's the year's biggest hit and makeup has an important place with a lot of major characters in the film) and Foxcatcher (again, the transformations of the lead actors were noticeable).  The third nomination could go to another transformation of a movie star (Maleficent) or to the aging-up of Eddie Redmayne in The Theory of Everything, or even the old age work that consumed Tilda Swinton in The Grand Budapest Hotel.

My Predictions: Foxcatcher, Guardians of the Galaxy, Maleficent

Visual Effects

The Visual Effects branch also has a bake-off, but this year that didn't help matters much as Noah was the only realistic contender that missed the cut.  Films like Interstellar and Dawn of the Planet of the Apes seem intent on dueling for the win (though, despite its tepid reception, Interstellar remains close to the front of the line), so really we're just looking at three final contestants.  The Hobbit has made it every single outing in this category and though there seems to be fatigue setting in, it's hard to see it missing in a category that it has owned (winning 60% of its chances), so I am keeping it.  The final two slots are a battle between four films: Maleficent, Guardians of the Galaxy, Godzilla, and Tranformers: Age of Exinction.  On the surface Guardians seems the easiest to dismiss, but it's also the year's biggest hit and that helps hugely in a category that focuses on the blockbusters.  Transformers hasn't always made it here like it has in Sound, but even with awful reviews it's still something to pay attention toward.  Maleficent seems to recall Snow White and the Huntsman from a few years back, a film that shocked when it got its citation, possibly because this category almost always has male leads.  And Godzilla was technically lovely and got plaudits from critics, but doesn't it feel a bit forgotten/over by now in a way the other films don't?  Any combination of these four films for the final two slots wouldn't surprise me, but right now I'm going with...

My Predictions: Dawn of the Planet of the Apes, Guardians of the Galaxy, The Hobbit, Interstellar, Maleficent

And those are my current visual category nominees.  Tomorrow we start looking into the auditory categories, but in the meantime-what are your predictions here?  Who are you rooting for?  Share in the comments!