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| Ed FitzGerald |
Governor: In what has to be the biggest joke of the entire
cycle in terms of candidates the Democrats put forth, Ed FitzGerald proved why
it’s important to have a bench in a swing state (something that Democrats are
notoriously awful at in the Buckeye State). FitzGerald saw his entire campaign against Gov. John Kasich
(R) derailed when it was revealed that he was caught by the police in a car at
4:30 AM with a woman who was not his wife, and that he didn’t have a valid
driver’s license at the time.
Since then Kasich has been on cruise control, spending more time focusing
on his 2016 presidential campaign (yes, seriously-what Republican isn’t running
for president two years from now?) than on his reelection.
House: Challenges touted earlier in the cycles against Reps.
David Joyce and Bill Johnson never really turned into anything, and this should
be status quo for all incumbents.
Oklahoma
Governor: Gov. Mary Fallin (R) has the right letter behind
her name, and will cruise to an easy reelection in the Sooner State.
Senate: Oklahoma is, thanks to special elections, one of
only two states that has both of their Senate seats up for election this
year. Sen. Jim Inhofe (R) will
easily take another term, and in the open seat fight for Tom Coburn’s seat,
Rep. James Lankford (R) should easily hold the seat for the Republicans, giving
him another win in a very quick rise to power.
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| Dr. Monica Wehby (R-OR) |
Oregon
Governor: The bizarre incidents surrounding Gov. John
Kitzhaber’s (D) fiancé (including that she once was in an arranged marriage to
grant someone citizenship and having connections to a marijuana farm in
Washington) have put a bit of a question mark behind Kitzhaber’s reelection
prospects, but I doubt that Dennis Richardson (R) will be able to take enough
of an advantage to make this a proper contest.
Senate: Sen. Jeff Merkley (D) was involved in one of the
closest Senate races in the country six years ago when he ousted incumbent
Gordon Smith. This year, Dr.
Monica Wehby (R) was supposed to be able to do the same to Merkley, but she has
run a bizarre campaign after an admittedly strong first push, and has been
bombarded by allegations of stalking and performing unnecessary surgeries. In blue Oregon, you need to run a
flawless campaign to win, and that didn’t happen here. Safe Merkley.
Pennsylvania
Governor: In one of the biggest foregone conclusions of the
cycle, Gov. Tom Corbett (R) will become the first incumbent governor ever to
lose in Pennsylvania. Corbett’s
popularity stems from a variety of stances and fumbles in office, including
comparing gay marriage to incest, refusing to expand gun control in a state
that favors it, trying to privatize the state lottery, and most pertinently,
his involvement in the Jerry Sandusky case and how long it took while Corbett
was Attorney General to go from a grand jury investigation to Sandusky’s indictment. The best that Corbett has been able to
do recently against Secretary of the Department of Revenue Tom Wolf (D) has
been being down by only thirteen points, which is about the worst position you
can be in as an incumbent. Democrats +1
House: It’s hard to tell whether US Army Ranger Kevin
Strouse (D) should be doing better with Wolf clobbering at the top of the
ticket or whether he’d do better with Hillary helping him out two years from
now. Either way, he doesn’t seem
likely to be a congressman in January against incumbent Rep. Mike Fitzpatrick
(R) in the eighth.
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| State Treasurer Gina Raimondo (D-RI) |
Rhode Island
Governor: We’re in the middle of an emerging race in Rhode
Island. Incumbent Gov. Lincoln
Chafee (D) declined to run for a second term, leading the way for State
Treasurer Gina Raimondo (D) to become the first female governor of the Ocean
State. However, polls have shown a
closing race against Cranston Mayor Allen Fung (R), and this could be down to
single digits. Raimondo doesn’t
seem to be in quite as precarious of a position as Martha Coakley across the
border, though, and I suspect she takes this.
Senate: I kind of forgot that Sen. Jack Reed (D) was up for
reelection this year. But he is,
and he’ll easily take his fourth term in office.
Mayor: In one of those “only in a big city mayoral election”
sort of situations, former Providence Mayor Buddy Cianci (I), twice convicted
felon, is running for another term in office after being diagnosed with cancer
earlier this year. Cianci, one of
the country’s most infamous mayors (regularly lampooned on FOX’s Family Guy) seems to have lost a bit of
momentum heading to Tuesday, however, and Democrat Jorge Elorza should be able
to beat the most notorious politician from Rhode Island.
South Carolina
Governor: It has to be rough for South Carolina Democrats
sometimes. They go from an
initially tight race for Elizabeth Colbert Busch in the House special election
earlier in the cycle to a pretty solid blowout for (now-Rep.) Mark Sanford, and
then they have to watch as State Sen. Vincent Sheheen, at first an extremely
strong candidate for governor, completely blows his chances against Gov. Nikki
Haley (R). Four years ago this was
surprisingly one of the closest elections of the gubernatorial cycle. This year, that won’t be the case.
Senate: Lindsay Graham will never be president-period, end
of story, done. He will, however,
win an easy reelection, as will Sen. Tim Scott (who is running for the
remainder of his appointed term, as Sen. Jim DeMint retired to become president
of the Heritage Foundation).
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| Gov. Mike Rounds (R-SD) |
South Dakota
Governor: Did I say to pity South Carolina Democrats? Sorry, I meant to pity South Dakota
Democrats, as they have the longest-streak of Republican governors currently in
the country, not having elected a Democrat since 1974 (for the record,
Washington Republicans haven’t elected a Republican to the statehouse since
1962, which is the overall record).
That streak doesn’t seem to be at risk this year, with Gov. Dennis
Daugaard (R) winning an easy second term.
Senate: Few Senate races go through the wild ride that South
Dakota did over the past month.
Long thought to be a foregone conclusion-style pickup (Sen. Tim Johnson
(D) is retiring after three terms), polling showed that former Gov. Mike Rounds
(R) may actually be vulnerable due to a third party challenge from former Sen.
Larry Pressler (I, but used to be R), leading the way for vote-splitting to
allow congressional staffer Rick Weiland (D) a chance to upset and give the
Democrats some mathematic breathing room in the quest for the Senate. However, the NRSC and DSCC spent their
money, and the race realigned quickly; Rounds now leads by a considerable
margin, Weiland was exposed as a pretty poor candidate in the process (don’t bite
the hand that feeds you, particularly when the hand is holding a million
dollars), and Pressler’s support was built on a house of cards. It’s still worth noting that,
considering the horrid campaign Rounds ran this cycle, that former Rep.
Stephanie Herseth Sandlin (D) may have made the most foolish mistake of the
cycle by not entering this race, equaled only by the foolishness that Rep.
Kristi Noem (R) made by not jumping into the race for a promotion, as she
certainly would have defeated Rounds.
Now Rounds wins after a lackluster campaign, and neither of these two
candidates will ever have a serious shot at a Senate seat again. Republicans +1
Tennessee
Governor: I could not tell you one single interesting fact
about Gov. Bill Haslam (R). Except
that he’s going to win reelection.
Senate: Lamar Alexander (R) has had a fascinating
career. Starting out in the Nixon
administration, he almost became governor in 1974 at the height of Watergate,
then went on to become governor four years later, became Secretary of
Education, ran twice for president (I still think the Republicans made a
mistake by picking Dole instead of Alexander in 1996), and then had a bit of a
sunset act in the Senate for the last twelve years. At 74, it’s questionable how many more terms he’s going to
lock in during the rest of his long career, but he’ll be elected to at least one
more on Tuesday.
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| State Sen. Wendy Davis (D-TX) |
Texas
Governor: State Sen. Wendy Davis (D) has become one of the
most divisive figures in American politics since her “Stand with Wendy”
filibuster to keep a number of Texas women’s clinics made her a cause célèbre
of the political Twittersphere.
Davis never really had a chance against Attorney General Greg Abbott
(R), and was more of a test to see what would happen when a competent Democrat
with actual access to cash ran for governor. Unfortunately, Davis hasn’t run a particularly compelling
election for governor, and this might not be the Democratic experiment that the
left was hoping for in the Lone Star State. Still, she remains a pretty potent individual, and I’m
curious where she takes her career next.
Greg Abbott will be taking his to the governor’s mansion.
Senate: About the only question regarding John Cornyn’s
reelection is whether or not he’ll get a promotion if somehow Alison Lundergan
Grimes beats Mitch McConnell in the Kentucky Senate race.
House: Rep. Pete Gallego (D) has run a pretty quiet campaign
for the House considering that Mitt Romney won his seat two years ago and this
has been a pretty strong Republican cycle; one would assume that Will Hurd (R)
would be doing better. However,
while there is constant talk about the map expanding, we haven’t heard anything
here, so I’m going to assume that Gallego is in good shape. If there’s a major wave for the GOP on
Election Night, watch this race though, since the fundamentals favor the
Republicans on paper. However,
Gallego seems to be one of those Collin Peterson/John Barrow-style politicians
who are popular in their district despite the letter behind their names.
Utah
House: Okay, there is little reason to believe the Democrats
have a shot in the open seat caused by the retirement of Rep. Jim Matheson (D)
in the fourth district, but two competing polls this past week have indicated
that Mayor Mia Love (R) who lost to Matheson in one of the biggest upsets of
the 2012 cycle, could be unable to close the deal yet again. This time her opponent is Doug Owens
(D), son of longtime Utah Rep. Wayne Owens, and the polls show a single digit
race for a seat that the Republicans assumed was put away. I’m going to still assume that Love has
this because every fundamental of the race would indicate that she has to have
this under control, but it’ll probably be closer than expected. With her election, Love will be the
first African-American woman to serve as a Republican in Congress. Republicans +1
Vermont
Governor: Gov Peter Shumlin (D), like Maggie Hassan of New
Hampshire, serves only two-year terms rather than four-year terms. Shumlin’s two terms in office so far
have oddly been surrounding drug use in a variety of factors, with both the
decriminalization of marijuana and a longtime focus on stopping opium addiction
(only in Vermont!). Shumlin should
continue to have his chance to fight opiates with an easy election for a third
term.
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| Sen. Mark Warner (D-VA) |
Virginia
Senate: A year after Terry McAuliiffe won a close but
history-defying election as Governor of Virginia (the Old Dominion has a tradition
of voting against whichever party just won the White House to elect its
governors), Sen. Mark Warner (D) seems certain to take out former RNC Chair Ed
Gillespie. The big question that
hangs over this race is just how blue has Virginia become in the past six
years? The state, one of the
biggest surprise pushes of Barack Obama’s 2008 campaign, has now gone
Democratic in four consecutive Senate races, two presidential races, and most
recently its gubernatorial election (and Democrats also won all of the
constitutional offices). With the
electoral math already fuzzy for a Republican in 2016, what happens if you take
Virginia off the map and just give it to the Democrats?
House: Initially, the race to succeed retiring Rep. Frank
Wolf (R) was deemed a very close race, but national Democrats pulled out in
early October, insinuating that State Rep. Barbara Comstock has the upper hand
against Fairfax County Supervisor John Foust. Still, though, if Warner is winning by a huge margin I would
expect the DCCC to have maybe made an error here-this seems like the sort of
race where it will be closer than the polls say it was supposed to be. No one wants Foust to win more than
Bill and Hillary Clinton, as Comstock was a lead investigator into the Clinton
White House and has vowed to be a thorn in Hillary’s side in the next two
years.
Washington
House: None of the Evergreen State’s ten congressional
districts appear to be up very competitive this cycle.
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| Nick Casey (D-WV) |
West Virginia
Senate: The race to succeed longtime Sen. Jay Rockefeller
(D) was originally seen as a potentially competitive affair, but has since
turned into a bit of a snore. Rep.
Shelley Moore Capito (R), a longtime passer on statewide races, finally took
the plunge and seems easily set to dispatch Secretary of State Natalie Tennant
(D) in a blowout. Republicans +1
House: Two major House races are keeping both the national
committees focused on the Mountain State, even as the Senate race has slipped
away. The most prominent
throughout the cycle has been that between 19-term Rep. Nick Rahall (D) and
State Sen. Evan Jenkins (R). While
Rahall was initially thought to be DOA, he’s fought back from earlier in the
cycle and has made this a genuine race, using his famed “Nicky Joe” brand to
offset Jenkins’ relentless attacks linking Rahall to President Obama. If the Senate race up-top were more
competitive I’d say Rahall would take this, but I just don’t see how a district
with a Cook PVI of R+14 could elect a Democrat in this environment. Like Collin Peterson in Minnesota’s
seventh, if Rahall manages to win here, expect this to be his final term in
office. Rahall’s seat isn’t the
only competitive one, however; the Democrats have managed to make Shelley Moore
Capito’s open seat a tossup as well, with the big issue being Republican Alex
Mooney being bagged a carpetbagger (in a move similar to Scott Brown in New
Hampshire, Mooney served in the State Senate in Maryland before moving to West
Virginia to run for Congress).
Democrats have a longtime resident in Nick Casey, the former state party
chairman, and he’s been trumpeting that aspect every chance he gets. I’m assuming Mooney wins because party
label is usually the trump card in these situations and this is a Republican
district, but I think the “home state” importance is more relevant in a state
like West Virginia which relies so heavily on “pork” from Congress, and so
Casey isn’t a gigantic underdog.
If both Mooney and Scott Brown lose this year, don’t expect the national
parties to allow any sort of “move from another state” style candidates in
major races for a long time. Republicans
+1
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| Mary Burke (D-WI) |
Wisconsin
Governor: One of the most bizarre races of the cycle has to
have been in Wisconsin. Two years
ago, the Democrats suffered a devastating defeat when a poorly-run recall
election cost them the governor’s mansion. Not only did they lose, but they lost with seemingly their
best candidate (Milwaukee Mayor Tom Barrett), leaving everyone in the political
universe to assume that the Democrats would put up a second-tier challenger to
Walker and hope that they did better in the open election for 2018. However,
politics occasionally throws you a curveball, and Madison School Board Member
Mary Burke has run one of the most succinct campaigns in the country, focusing
on Walker’s jobs record and relentlessly attacking him in a way that looks like
it’s out of a Midwestern playbook (Walker looked like the nice guy victim two
years ago, less so now). The
Midwest tends to like their incumbent governors (it’s rarer here than any other
census region to have your incumbent governor lose), so I’m sticking with
Walker, but I’m not particularly confident in that prediction. You have to assume that the likes of
Chris Christie, Bobby Jindal, and John Kasich are looking at this contest and
secretly wishing that Mary Burke takes it, if only so they have one less
governor in the race for the White House in 2016.
Wyoming
Governor: Occasionally hard red states like to randomly
elect a Democrat as their governor.
It may well happen this year in Kansas, and only four years ago Wyoming still
had one. However, when you have to
check to see if Gov. Matt Mead (R) even has a Democratic challenger (he
does-former State Democratic Chair Pete Gosar), you know he’s going to win
reelection.
Senate: An election is a lifetime in politics, and the best
way to know that is to remember all of the little moments that randomly popped
up and helped or destroyed a political career. One of the more forgotten at this point would be Liz Cheney
randomly deciding to move to Wyoming and challenge Sen. Mike Enzi (R) in one of
the more ill-advised moments of the campaign season (particularly since
Virginia was still looking for a challenger at that point). Cheney dropped out, and Enzi easily
secured a fourth term as a result (though, to be honest, he would have been
able to get the fourth term pretty easily against Cheney’s bizarre campaign
anyway).
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