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| Gov. Charlie Crist (D-FL) |
Florida
Governor: You could say that current Gov. Rick Scott (R) and former Gov. Charlie Crist (D) are not fans of each other (hardy har har). This race has been all over the map, with neither man enjoying a particularly robust following, and Crist having to fight for both moderates and liberals (considering he was a staunch Republican just a few years ago). Still, though, this race after all of the millions that have been spent to win it (every party wants the Florida governorship headed into a presidential election) may come down to how petty an extraordinarily rich man looked stalling for eight minutes because his extraordinarily rich opponent got to use an electronic fan. Only in Florida… Democrats +1
House: Two races seem to have dominated Florida’s House map for the past few months. The first is in the 26th, where Rep. Joe Garcia, after a scandal-plagued first-term, seems to be in hot water against School Board Member Carlos Curbelo. The national Democrats have indicated that Garcia is doing better than expected, but I just don’t see how he manages to win in a midterm where Hispanic Democrats won’t turn out in as large of numbers. Curbelo wins, narrowly. However, the Democrats have their best recruit of the cycle in Florida’s second district, where Gwen Graham, the daughter of former senator and governor Bob Graham, is putting Rep. Steve Southerland through the ringer. Southerland has tried a tactic of attacking Graham for having “daddy buy her a seat,” but this argument hasn’t wrung particularly strong here, and I think he may be the rare Republican incumbent to lose this cycle (part of the national fervor is simply anti-Washington, and while that should hit Democrats primarily, it will catch a couple of Republicans, including Southerland). This means that Florida, like California, is a net neutral for the parties.
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| Michelle Nunn (D-GA) |
Georgia
Governor: This race has been one of the oddest and closest of the cycle. Thanks in part due to a poor performance during a snow emergency last year in Atlanta, Gov. Nathan Deal (R) has found himself extremely vulnerable to State Sen. Jason Carter, grandson of former President Jimmy Carter. While Deal has enjoyed the slightest of advantages (he’s likely up by 1-2 points) Georgia election law dictates that if no one reaches 50% in a gubernatorial race, the race moves to a December runoff. Runoffs are generally believed to favor Republicans, but they give a few more weeks for the lead to exchange hands again-it’s very clear that Deal is hoping this is over in November, a hope that I think isn’t going to come to fruition.
Senate: The Democrats are in an opposite sort of situation here. While Deal would likely win if there weren’t a runoff, the Democrats at this point would probably pick up an extremely valuable seat in November in the Peach State with Michelle Nunn (D), daughter of former Sen. Sam Nunn taking the open seat of Sen. Saxby Chambliss (R). The main reason that Nunn is competitive is a series of gaffes from her Republican opponent David Perdue, who recently made comments praising outsourcing, which has given Nunn a wedge issue with conservative white registered Democrats who usually vote Republican at the ballot box. At this point it looks like Nunn will win a plurality, but come in short, and advance to a January runoff (why are they not in the same month…I have no idea-maybe proximity to Florida has given Georgia a case of odd election law-itis). Nunn, like Deal, is hoping to avoid a runoff, particularly since she wouldn’t be favored-if she can turnout African-American voters in stronger numbers than expected this would be a critical victory for the Democrats trying to stop the bleeding in their own seats. But like Deal, I just don’t think that’s going to come to fruition.
House: Rep. John Barrow (D) is in a Romney-won district, and like we learned a few years back with Ike Skelton and John Spratt, in wave elections any Democrat in a Republican-held district shouldn’t rest on his laurels. That being said, Barrow is in a re-run from 2012 and Republican Rick Allen just doesn’t seem to be catching steam this year in a way that would make me feel like he can change the outcome two years later.
Hawaii
Governor: Gov. Neil Abercrombie (D) endured one of the most catastrophic defeats of the cycle, losing after four decades in public office in the Aloha State to a backbencher state senator, David Ige. Despite what initially looked like a potential three-way spoiler race with Republican Lt. Gov. Duke Aiona and Independent Mayor Mufi Hannemann, polling indicates the race has resulted in pretty much a blowout for Ige.
Senate: Sen. Brian Schatz (D) won this Senate seat for life when he defeated Rep. Colleen Hanabusa in the primary by less than 2,000 votes in August. Schatz should have no trouble winning this incredibly blue state in the future. The better question here is-between Ige and Hanabusa, which candidate will ambitious Democrats in blue states without any upward mobility opportunities take to heart: the incredible upset or the cautionary tale? Democrats have avoided the primary problem that has plagued Republicans over the past few cycles-could this be changing in 2016?
House: Republicans seem mildly optimistic that former Rep. Charles Djou (R) can pull an upset for Hanabusa’s open seat, but I have a hard time believing that one of the few states that still universally supports President Obama will give a seat to the Republicans. Point to State Rep. Mark Takai (D) here.
Idaho
Governor: Polling against Gov. Butch Otter (R) hasn’t been as uniform as ruby red Idaho would normally suggest, but it’s certainly not enough for School Board President A.J. Balukoff to actually have a shot at winning.
Senate: You know you’re safe when I didn’t even know you were running for reelection. Sen. Jim Risch (R) easily wins a second term.
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| Rep. Bob Dold (R-IL) |
Illinois
Governor: Gov. Pat Quinn (D) has to be the luckiest man in politics. After getting to the governor’s office upon the implosion of Gov. Rod Blagojevich in 2009, Quinn defeated State Comptroller Dan Hynes in the Democratic primary in 2010 by a single point, and then went on to win the governor’s mansion in 2010 by less than a point, in one of the ten closest gubernatorial elections in U.S. history. This year, the wildly unpopular governor was expected to go down in a landslide, but the natural blue tint of Illinois has helped put him in a dead heat, and while businessman Bruce Rauner (R) is certainly competitive, the populist message from Quinn seems to be too hard to ignore. While he’ll probably just take Cook County, that will be enough for a victory for the governor.
Senate: Senate Majority Whip Dick Durbin (D) may be wondering if he’ll be able to beat Chuck Schumer if a power struggle breaks out for Harry Reid’s leader slot (Reid may lose his position if the Democrats lose the Senate), but he’s not concerned about his easy reelection.
House: Two years ago, one of the biggest success stories for the Democrats happened in Illinois, where they won a quartet of seats from the Republicans and held a vulnerable Democratic one. This year isn’t going to be as kind. Rep. Brad Schenider (D) is running slightly behind in the tenth against former Rep. Bob Dold (R, and no that’s not a typo referring to the former Kansas Senator…this isn’t New Hampshire), and I think he’ll lose without Obama to help carry him across the finish line (expect him to be pretty instantly recruited to run again in 2016 setting up a third back-to-back matchup). In the twelfth, Rep. Bill Enyart (D) also seems to be vulnerable against State Rep. Mike Bost, and I’m going to assume the Democrats lose this as well, though Bost’s past behavior in the state legislature has been pretty outlandish, and this may be a race Enyart wins because his Republican opponent is poorer (or that the Democrats come raging back to win if Bost becomes a Michele Bachmann-style Republican). Republicans +2
Indiana
House: Two years after winning one of the closest House elections of the cycle, Rep. Jackie Walorski (R) should sail to victory in the second district.
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| State Sen. Joni Ernst (R-IA) |
Iowa
Governor: Terry Branstad (R) has been governor since Iowa became a state, I believe, and should have no trouble winning his 564th term in office.
Senate: This is where all of the marbles are won. Democrats, when the mud starts getting thrown on November 5th, can start with pummeling it at Rep. Bruce Braley (D) over his comments regarding farmers, which has become the Todd Akin moment of the cycle. It didn’t help that Republicans got a rock star in State Sen. Joni Ernst (R) despite her seeming like a second tier candidate at the start (and I’m genuinely curious how her teflon-appeal holds up in office, considering on-paper she’s much more Michele Bachmann than Susan Collins). Ernst is clearly running the better campaign here, though it’s not a guarantee and early voting seems to favor Braley (though don’t get too excited-early voting ALWAYS favors the Democrats). Braley could theoretically still win this, though I have to assume that the polls are right at this point and Ernst takes this by a point or two. The stakes could not be higher for the Democrats here, however. Braley underperforming could cost them at least one House seat, and cause the Republicans to have what might become their first serious female contender for president (Ernst is only 44 and clearly a skilled politician). It’s also worth noting that there is absolutely no hope, in my opinion, of the Democrats holding the Senate if they cannot deliver Iowa. The Republicans can easily win without it, the Democrats simply stated, cannot. Republicans +1
House: As I mentioned above, the Iowa Democrats are in a world of hurt thanks to a lackluster gubernatorial campaign and the missteps of Braley. As a result, Braley’s seat seems to be in-play with Rod Blum (R) taking on State Rep. Pat Murphy (D) in the most liberal district in the state. I just cannot see Murphy or Rep. Dave Loebsack (D) in the second losing, as the seats are too liberal (though if Braley loses by more than 5-points I suspect one of them goes down), but I think that Braley’s campaign will sink what was one of the most promising pickup opportunities in the country for the blue team: Iowa’s 3rd district. Like the Senate race, it’s hard to argue that State Sen. Staci Appel (D) has run the better campaign to succeed retiring Rep. Tom Latham (R), but David Young (R), Sen. Grassley’s former Chief of Staff, is probably going to gain enough votes from Ernst to be dragged across the finish line. It’s worth noting that if Ernst, Appel, or Mariannette Miller-Meeks in the second district win, it will be the first time ever that Iowa has sent a woman to Congress.
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| House Minority Leader Paul Davis (D-KS) |
Kansas
Governor: Anyone who says they know what is happening in Kansas needs to be laughed out of the room, as this state has been all over the map. In any sane universe, a Republican wave wouldn’t even be needed to get an incumbent Republican governor re-elected in Kansas, but Gov. Sam Brownback has become wildly unpopular in office. A conservative experiment with education cuts, revenue cuts, and a strict adherence to Republican economic principles (this is the state that got a Tea Party-style government) has proven a disaster for the state, and even a number of Republicans are endorsing House Minority Leader Paul Davis (D). The lead has shifted pretty dramatically between Brownback and Davis, and I am honestly beside myself as to which candidate will win. I’m going to assume Brownback does, however, if for no other reason than the added interest on behalf of Pat Roberts is going to help Brownback with conservative turnout, though this will be a hold-your-nose sort of victory. Democrats in states like Alabama, Mississippi, Texas, and Oklahoma have to be cheering pretty hard for Davis, however, since Brownback winning reelection could mean that their GOP representatives might employ similar tactics to avoid primaries in the future.
Senate: Sen. Pat Roberts (R) doesn’t have the excuses that Gov. Brownback, his former Senate colleague, does in why his race has been competitive. Roberts got targeted hard for his lack of a connection with his state (his primary residence is in Virginia, and he’s basically admitted it), and he’s been a series of gaffes and entitlement on the campaign trail. Even so, a traditional Democrat couldn’t change this seat for the Republicans, but a left-leaning Independent might, which is what Greg Orman is. Without a Democrat in the race, this race is a genuine coin toss, but I just cannot fathom anyone other than a Republican winning in this environment in Kansas (six years ago, Orman would have been as shoo-in). Still, though, Orman winning wouldn’t shock me in the slightest.
House: The trickle-down effect of dampened Republican enthusiasm could cost Rep. Lynn Jenkins her seat in a surprisingly close election in the second district against former congressional aide Margie Wakefield, but I doubt it. Unlike Roberts and Brownback, who are TERRIBLE candidates, Jenkins is a solid one and that should help her gain ground in her conservative seat.
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| Sec. of State Alison Lundergan Grimes (D-KY) |
Kentucky
Senate: Perhaps you’ve heard of a man named Mitch McConnell? The man-who-would-be-majority-leader first has to beat Secretary of State Alison Lundergan Grimes (D), a blue chip recruit who ended up having a bad ROI. Grimes has run a pretty middling campaign at best, and frequently stepped in it with her refusal to say whether she voted for President Obama (though even I thought Chuck Todd made a bad misstep saying she had “disqualified” herself, and he’s probably going to have to be a bit more cautious in the future after taking over Meet the Press). Still, though, polls are insanely tight against Grimes, mostly because McConnell is about as popular as ebola in Kentucky, and the DSCC is still on the air in the Bluegrass State, indicating they think this worth precious “late-in-the-game” dollars. Grimes will probably hit the high-40’s, but without a viable third party conservative to steal votes away from McConnell (man could a Libertarian have been useful here), that won’t be enough.
Louisiana
Senate: Sen. Mary Landrieu (D) is a battle-tested incumbent. This is a woman who has struggled through three tight Senate elections and pulled through. This is partially why I find it so odd that she’s about to lose to what has to be one of her least interesting opponents (Louisiana likes its politicians colorful). Rep. Bill Cassidy (R) leads in every matchup poll for a runoff, and while Landrieu has kept her coalition together enough so that we don’t get a repeat of the David Vitter/Chris John fiasco of 2004, I don’t see a fathomable way that she wins the runoff (particularly if her seat is the deciding vote in Senate control), and at this point I don’t see a way for her to get above 50% on Election Night. Republicans +1
House: Joining Landrieu on that runoff ballot is former Gov. Edwin Edwards in the sixth district. As the only major Democrat in his race, Edwards will surely make it to a runoff, but his background may be a bit too colorful for the Bayou State (he’s been in jail), and whichever random Republican lucks into the runoff against him will become a member of Congress.
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