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| Rep. Mike Michaud (D-ME) |
Maine
Governor: Never has there been such an obvious contender for
runoff voting than in Maine. Gov.
Paul LePage (R) rode into office four years ago with only 38.1% of the vote,
while progressive candidates Eliot Cutler (I) and Libby Mitchell (D) got a
combined total of 55.7% of the vote.
This year, history could repeat itself. While this past Wednesday’s revelation that Eliot Cutler (I)
will remain in the race, but that his supporters should “vote their conscience”
almost certainly helped Rep. Mike Michaud (D) in gaining progressive support,
Cutler’s name is still on the ballet and he’s still running, so there’s room
left for LePage. That being said,
before Cutler’s announcement I would have guessed LePage wins this-without him
actively in the race, I’m going to guess that Michaud has enough support to
seal the deal, making him the first openly gay person to be elected governor. Democrats +1
House: I’ve heard murmurs of a tightening race between State
Sen. Emily Cain (D) and State Treasurer Bruce Poliquin in the race to succeed
Mike Michaud, and Cain probably should have been able to close this better than
she did (even though this is the more conservative of the two Pine Tree State
districts). However, the NRCC
wouldn’t be pulling out of this race if Poliquin showed a strong chance in
their internal polling, so I suspect Cain takes this.
Maryland
Governor: Lieutenant governors generally have a terrible
track record of winning governorships, and in fact the last time a lieutenant
governor ran in the Old Line State it was an abject disaster (anyone else
remember Kathleen Kennedy Townsend said the name of the wrong school while she
was campaigning at its rival?).
That being said, Larry Hogan (R), the son of the former congressman,
hasn’t been able to make a huge dent against Lt. Governor Anthony Brown (D),
who would be the only African-American governor in the country if he were to
win (Deval Patrick of Massachusetts is retiring), and I suspect Brown holds
this seat, keeping Martin O’Malley’s near flawless I-want-to-run-for-president
record intact.
 |
| Charlie Baker (R-MA) |
Massachusetts
Governor: In what has become one of the most embarrassing
races of the cycle, Attorney General Martha Coakley (D) may do the unthinkable:
she may lose statewide twice as a Democrat in Massachusetts. Coakley, for those who are wondering
why that name sounds familiar, was the woman who lost Ted Kennedy’s seat in
2009, allowing Scott Brown to become a thing (I’m sure Jeanne Shaheen is not a
fan of hers). This year, after a
long series of leads in the polls, Coakley has stumbled, winning a
tighter-than-expected primary and then slowly falling behind businessman and
2010 candidate Charlie Baker (R).
Even the Boston Globe has had
enough of her, endorsing Baker in a clear slight of Coakley’s, considering the
paper’s traditionally liberal roots.
If Coakley wins, she’ll become the first female governor from
Massachusetts, a major player nationally as one of the few female governors,
and likely emerge as a major Hillary surrogate going into 2016, considering
Boston is a strong fundraising city for the left. If she loses, she’ll become a pariah the Democratic Party
hasn’t seen from Massachusetts since Mike Dukakis. I suspect the latter. Republicans
+1
Senate: Luckily, unlike in other races (see Kansas and
Colorado for examples) the gubernatorial race has had little effect on low-key
Sen. Ed Markey’s quest for a full-term in office. Random fact about Markey: he is the longest-tenured House
member to be elected to the Senate (he served 36 years in the House prior to
moving to the upper body).
House: State Sen. Richard Tisei (R) has taken a slim lead
over Seth Moulton (D) in limited polling, meaning that this race to succeed
Rep. John Tierney (the only congressional Democrat to lose a primary this
cycle) is still close. This race,
by the looks of the debates, has turned nasty, but if Tierney could win in the
height of his scandal last cycle, I have trouble believing that Tisei will have
the support to win here (Tisei is openly gay, and would be the first openly gay
Republican to win as a non-incumbent were he to be victorious). In the ninth, Rep. Bill Keating (D) has
also had some troubles, and Martha Coakley’s lackluster performance cannot be
helping him here, but House Republicans are like Charlie Brown with the
football in Massachusetts, and I’m giving him the advantage here, though it’ll
be closer than it should be.
Michigan
Governor: On paper, this race makes sense to call for Gov.
Rick Snyder (R). After all,
Midwestern Republican governors tend to win reelection, if only because they
seem uncannily able to build coalitions between moderates and their entire base
(see also Tim Pawlenty and Scott Walker).
However, I will point out that this race has been all over the map
politically, with some polls showing Snyder up by eight points, while others
showing a one-point race in favor of the Democrat, former Rep. Mark
Schauer. If Democrats can get out
enough votes in Detroit, this could be a major surprise, considering President
Obama is relatively popular still in Michigan thanks to the auto bailout. However, I’ll stick with Snyder for
now.
Senate: If we’re handing out prizes for luckiest politicians
of the past decade, Rep. Gary Peters has to be amongst them. He starts out in 2008 by winning in
perhaps the only cycle Joe Knollenberg could have gone down (thanks entirely to
then-Sen. Obama crushing John McCain in the district), won a tight race against
a poor Republican during the 2010 midterms (a less than 3-point victory), and
then managed to win a black-majority district (becoming one of only two white
members of Congress to do so in the current House, along with Steve Cohen of
Tennessee) because the two leading African-American candidates split their vote
percentage. This cycle that luck
continued, with Peters initially being behind Secretary of State Terri Lynn
Land (R), but watching as Land ran one of the strangest and poorest campaigns
I’ve ever witnessed (frequently having odd outbursts, avoiding the press, and I
don’t think they ever had a proper debate because she wouldn’t agree to one). Peters will hold this seat for the
Democrats, one of the best pieces of news they’ve had all cycle.
House: There are a lot of open and theoretically competitive
seats in Michigan, but none of the Democrats seem to have been able to break
out against the Republicans, and so I think it should stay status quo.
 |
| Sen. Al Franken (D-MN) |
Minnesota
Governor: Four years ago Mark Dayton (D) won a razor-thin
election to become governor four years after leaving the Senate in fairly
unceremonious fashion. This year
he shouldn’t have nearly as much trouble, with Commissioner Jeff Johnson (R)
running a fine, but uninspired campaign against the incumbent Democrat. Expect low double-digits for Dayton,
who may be able to parlay his popularity into holding the State House.
Senate: Only in Minnesota would a 9000-vote margin win for
Dayton look astronomical, but 9000 votes would have swung the election easily
in the Al Franken election of 2008.
Winning by just 312 votes (always remember this race the next time
you’re told that your vote doesn’t matter, as my apartment building could have
swung this election where over 2.8 million people voted), Franken was thought
to be a top target at the time, but he’s settled nicely into the Senate and
Republican Mike McFadden hasn’t given Minnesotans a reason to vote him
out. Expect him to win by slightly
less than Dayton, but still by a margin that won’t demand a recount.
House: Two major House races are being hosted in the Land of
10,000 Lakes, both in the state’s northern half. Rep. Collin Peterson (D), a longtime Blue Dog Democrat who
has defied his party label multiple times (his district was won by Mitt Romney
in 2012) is in his toughest race in twenty years against State Sen. Torrey
Westrom. Peterson’s personal
popularity should be enough to put him over the edge, but I’d wager this is his
last election considering he turns 70 this year (random fact: Collin Peterson
is the only person I voted for in my first time voting that still holds the
office I voted for them in). The
other race, however, doesn’t look as promising for the Democrats. Rep. Rick Nolan (D) pulled one of the
oddest comebacks of 2012 when he came out of retirement after thirty years out
of the House to win another term, but he clearly hasn’t adapted to modern
campaigning, and that has left him vulnerable to wealthy businessman Stewart
Mills III. The eighth district has
a strong Democratic tradition, particularly in the area surrounding Duluth, but
the exurbs in this district continue to be a struggle for the Democrats, and I’m
going to guess that Mills wins this (note: it’s always harder to guess your
home state because you go in with too many pre-conceptions about how the
electorate will behave, so take this particular prediction with a grain of
salt). Republicans +1
Mississippi
Senate: Sen. Thad Cochran had to endure one of the toughest
primaries of the cycle earlier this year, and won in a stunning victory against
State Sen. Chris McDaniel that still feels like it may have been a bad use of
the Democratic base (African-American voters, who traditionally support Democrats
in the state in large numbers, won Cochran the nomination taking a
theoretically vulnerable seat off the table…and if you don’t believe me, look
at Kansas). That being said,
Cochran won’t lose to former Rep. Travis Childers in the general in dark red
Mississippi, so this is a Republican hold.
Missouri
House: All of the incumbents look extremely safe in
Missouri’s election, probably a relief for a state that had to endure Todd Akin
last cycle.
Montana
Senate: One of the most embarrassing moments for the
Democrats this cycle, and one of the biggest series of blunders in terms of
recruitment. Sen. Max Baucus (D)
was first driven out of the race by Gov. Brian Schweitzer, who kept threatening
to primary him, and then Schweitzer stunned the political world by refusing to
run for the seat, thus depriving the Democrats of a surefire winner. Lt. Gov. John Walsh was appointed to
the Senate and for a time it seemed like he might make a race of things, but he
was thrown apart by a plagiarism scandal that forced him to withdraw from the
race for too-liberal-for-the-Treasure-State State Rep. Amanda Curtis. All-the-while Rep. Steve Daines, after
one term in the House, easily got a promotion, and the Republicans got their surest
pickup of 2014. Republicans +1
House: The pity about Schweitzer not running is that he may
have helped down ballot. Former
congressional aide John Lewis actually has run a decent campaign, but no
Democrat could overcome a top of the ticket nightmare like the Senate race
here, particularly in a Romney-state.
State Sen. Ryan Zinke should hold this with ease.
 |
| Ben Sasse (R-NE) |
Governor: With the retirement of Gov. Dave Heinemann (R)
there was some stir earlier on in the cycle that this might end up being
somewhat competitive, considering that in the past Nebraska has had a pretty
solid history of Democratic governors (J. James Exon, Bob Kerrey, and most
recently Ben Nelson). However,
Democrats haven’t remotely played here, leaving Pete Ricketts, who got
clobbered by Ben Nelson eight years ago in a race for the Senate, to make a
comeback and become the 40th Governor of the state.
Senate: One of the forgotten stories of the 2014 campaign is
that Nebraska has an open Senate seat this cycle, with incumbent Mike Johanns
(R) retiring after just one term.
As a result, the Tea Party scored one of their very few successes
earlier this year when Midland University President Ben Sasse defeated State
Treasurer Shane Osborn in the primary.
Sasse has been largely overshadowed this campaign season, but I suspect
that his views (particularly surrounding the Affordable Care Act and abortion)
will mean that he could be a very vocal member of a Republican majority come
the spring.
House: Remember a long time ago, when the Democrats won the
Virginia governorship based on the government shutdown and everyone wondered if
the Democrats might actually gain seats this cycle? Well, that clearly didn’t
pan out, but the shutdown may still cost one incumbent their seat. Rep. Lee Terry (R) has been a quiet
backbencher for most of his career, but has seen his margin’s in this swing
district shrink since 2006, with him nearly losing in a race that was largely
forgotten about two years ago.
This year, Terry had one of the worst cases of foot-in-mouth syndrome of
any politician when he said he would continue to collect his paychecks during
the shutdown because he has a “nice house” forgetting that a number of people
were out of work as a result of the shutdown. That comment has haunted Terry throughout the cycle. Were this a neutral year, Terry would
be toast next to State Sen. Brad Ashford (D), but it’s not, and I’m giving the
Republican lean (however small) of this district the benefit of the doubt. If the Democrats have a better than
expected night, however, Terry is almost certain to lose.
Nevada
Governor: One of the great recruiting embarrassments of the
cycle was when the Democrats couldn’t find a single credible candidate to take
on Gov. Brian Sandoval (R) in a state where Barack Obama won by decisive
margins the past two cycles.
Sandoval’s victory is assured, and Harry Reid is going to be kicking
himself if it ends up that Sandoval takes him on in two years for not finding
someone to give him a run for his money this year.
Lt. Governor: The true question in Nevada surrounds the
Lieutenant Governor’s race, which is not connected to the governor’s race (I
always find it bizarre when states do this-it’d be like if we elected Barack
Obama and Paul Ryan last cycle).
State Rep. Lucy Flores (D) is Harry Reid’s hand-chosen candidate, and is
running to succeed Lt. Gov. Brian Krolicki (R), though Brian Sandoval’s
hand-chosen candidate, State Sen. Mark Hutchison (R) is also in the race. This is seen by most as a proxy battle
between Reid and Sandoval. Reid
rarely loses elections in Nevada, but I think this may be one of the
exceptions-Sandoval is actually on the ballot, and should carry Hutchison to
victory. If Flores wins, this is a
huge victory for Reid, as it means that Sandoval cannot become a senator
without giving up the governor’s mansion.
House: There’s been a lot of buzz around State Rep. Cresent
Hardy (R, and yes his name is really Cresent) giving Rep. Steven Horsford a run
for his money, but unless this is a mammoth wave that I’m just not expecting, I
don’t quite see this happening.
Horsford underwhelmed a bit two years ago, but this is still a sharply
Democratic district and he should be fine, even if the margin of victory is
underwhelming again (a win is a win is a win).
 |
| Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D-NH) |
Governor: One of the most promising stars in the Democratic
Party is Gov. Maggie Hassan (D), a former state senator who won the governor’s
race two years ago (New Hampshire, ever the oddball, has only two-year
terms). Hassan, like most Democrats
in swing states this year, has seen a slight dip in the polls, but nothing
particularly serious, and I predict she wins reelection. The better question is what she does
next-I suspect that she’s gearing up for a run against Sen. Kelly Ayotte in two
years, but if Hillary turns down a run, Hassan might shoot her sights a bit
higher.
Senate: I try as hard as I can to be impartial when I write
these things, and as a whole I am, but I have to say-I don’t get the appeal of
Scott Brown for New Hampshire. The
guy is handsome and…honestly, I don’t see it after that. He seems to be an intellectual lightweight
on heavier issues, he’s not a longtime resident of the state and he’s seriously
gaffe-prone. Plus, his opponent
has a majority of the voters who actually like her (something that’s generally
unheard of in a close race), and Sen. Jeanne Shaheen has been in office in the
state for decades, and is very competent in what she does. Plus, this state has gone blue the last
thre presidential elections-this shouldn’t be close! And yet, Brown has clearly gained all of the momentum in
this race. Perhaps the only
problem for him was that Shaheen was so close to 50% that he needed to gain
some of her backers, and that hasn’t seemed to happen; Brown will need to take
an unreasonably large amount of the undecided voters in this state, or to pray
that turnout is low in a state with competitive Governor’s, Senate, and House
races (unlikely) to win, but this is certainly a place that the Republicans
could “pull a Heidi Heitkamp” and make a basket at the buzzer. Still, my money remains on Shaheen
(perhaps if only because predicting Scott Brown would cause me too much mental
anguish).
House: New Hampshire has shown a sharp preponderance in
recent years toward voting out their entire congressional delegation. They did it in 2006, 2010, and again in
2012. That has to make both Reps.
Carol Shea-Porter (D) and Ann McLane Kuster (D) nervous. Kuster gets the more progressive seat,
however, and I’m guessing is fine as the “top recruit” in that district, State
Rep. Marilinda Garcia (R) seems to have been a bit of a featherweight
politically (it’s worth noting that Kuster nearly won in 2010 despite the
national headwinds, and she wasn’t an incumbent at the time). Meanwhile, Rep. Carol Shea-Porter is
taking on her 2010/2012 nemesis former Rep. Frank Guinta (R), and the spread in
that race has been all over the place, ranging from Shea-Porter being up by 17
to Guinta being up by 10 (seriously-this may be the weirdest polling patterns
in the entire country).
Shea-Porter has consistently underperformed in past polling (she’s never
actually been the favorite heading into Election Day, despite winning 75% of
her congressional elections), but I just can’t help feeling that the
Republicans will at least take one seat here. It’s worth noting that if Shaheen, Kuster, and Shea-Porter
all win, they will continue to maintain the only all-female House delegation in
the country. Republicans +1
 |
| Sen. Cory Booker (D-NJ) |
Senate: Sen. Cory Booker (D) won the open seat left by the
death of Sen. Frank Lautenberg (D) last year, and seems likely to win again
Tuesday. Expect a lot of talk
about whether Booker will A) get married and B) be on the national ticket
during his next term.
House: In one of those districts that got away from the
Democrats, Freeholder Aimee Belgard (D) was at one point one of the more
promising candidates of the cycle to succeed retiring Rep. Jon Runyan (R), but
this seat doesn’t seem to be panning out for Democrats, and Mayor Tom MacArthur
(R) seems to be the favorite to take the race. If Belgard keeps this race tight, expect her to be one of
the few candidates that Democrats quickly try and recruit to run again in 2016.
New Mexico
Governor: Gov. Susana Martinez (R) should have her campaign
studied by every major Republican looking at a White House run in 2016. Admittedly this is an environment she
should do well in being from the right, but still-this is a blue state, she’s
got a decent challenger (sitting Attorney General Gary King), and yet the
Democrats cannot come close to her.
Martinez has fought off entreaties to enter the White House race in two
years, but has so far resisted.
Still, she’s almost certain to be considered for the Veep slot by any
Republican considering the race.
Senate: A recent poll shows Sen. Tom Udall (D) up by only
single digits in New Mexico, but I’m not buying it A) because this is a much
bluer state than any of the states that have been competitive this cycle and B)
Tom Udall losing would basically mean the Republicans have won a dozen or more
seats, and I feel like if that were possible people like Mark Pryor and Mary
Landrieu would look a lot more like Blanche Lincoln four years ago than just
underdogs.
 |
| Elise Stefanik (R-NY) |
Governor: Gov. Andrew Cuomo (D) has never been well-loved by
Democrats (most Democrats just roll their eyes or grit their teeth when he is
mentioned as a presidential candidate), his book was a giant flop, and his
handling of the Ebola crisis has been widely-panned, particularly from the
left. If he had even a remotely
competitive race, this could theoretically derail his perch in Albany. However, Republican Rob Astorino (R)
has absolutely no shot of actually winning, so Cuomo can continue to be
unpopular and still win reelection (hey, if it works for Mitch McConnell…).
House: New York is almost always host to a number of
competitive House races. At one
point, Democrats had hopes of winning in the 23rd and the 19th,
but Martha Robertson has underwhelmed and Sean Eldridge has run the worst
campaign money can buy (and considering he’s got like $700 million, this is a
true statement). Democrats should win in the 11th
district, considering Rep. Michael Grimm (R) is being indicted on twenty felony
counts and threatened to throw a reporter over a balcony (on camera!), but the
Democrats may have picked the dumbest man in Brooklyn to run against him and
Grimm actually seems to have gained enough momentum to win here (though this
race is close-about the only surefire prediction you can make is that neither
of these men will win in 2016).
Republicans have made strong inroads against Reps. Sean Maloney (D) and
Tim Bishop (D), and I’m going to split the difference between these two,
assuming that Maloney wins in a rematch against former Rep. Nan Hayworth, but
Bishop (a longtime target that has never quite landed for the GOP) finally
falls to State Sen. Lee Zeldin (R) (I am not confident on this-this is sort of
my “I feel like the Republicans are going to be slightly better than expected,
and some longtime incumbent is going to fall-Bishop makes more sense than
Collin Peterson or John Barrow).
The Democrats don’t have as much hope in the 21st district,
where retiring Rep. Bill Owens (D) was really the only Democrat who could hold
the seat, and so Elise Stefanik (D) will officially become the first member of
Congress to be younger than me (admittedly, by three days), as well as the
first Millennial to serve in Congress.
Finally, Rep. Dan Maffei (D), a rather poor campaigner who lucked into a
very blue district, is purportedly vulnerable, but I think it’s too little-too
late to get him out of office yet again. Republicans
+2
 |
| Sen. Kay Hagan (D-NC) with Sec. Hillary Rodham Clinton (D-NY) |
Senate: The most expensive Senate race in history? It sure looks that way, as the battle
between incumbent Sen. Kay Hagan (D) and State House Speaker Thom Tillis (R)
should hit $100 million by the end of the year, a staggering amount that should
make anyone want to take a long, hard look at Citizens United (considering the
commercial wars in the state, I suspect it’s now a pretty unpopular law in the
Tar Heel State). Still, though,
this race is highly-touted for a reason: it’s essentially become a coin toss
race. Early voting has favored the
Democrats, but Republicans don’t vote early, and the Sunday results in the race
seemed weak considering how much Kay Hagan is relying on African-American
support (frequently African-American voters favor Sunday for voting, as church
parishes will organize bus rides to the polls after service in a movement
called “Souls to the Polls”). My
gut is saying Thom Tillis here, my head is saying Hagan-Tillis has the
momentum, Hagan has the lead, and this is a state that should for all
intents-and-purposes have fallen out of Democratic hands weeks ago, but Hagan
has somehow held on…argh, I’m going with Tillis. Republicans +1
House: Rep. Mike McIntyre (D) is, like Bill Owens in New
York, the only Democrat that could have held the 7th district, and
with his retirement, former State Sen. David Rouzer (R) gets the easiest House
pickup of the cycle. Republicans +1
North Dakota
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