All right, after nearly two years straight of writing about,
dissecting, over-analyzing, and otherwise obsessing through every election that
the country is going to half-heartedly decide on November 4th, it is
time for me to put my money where my mouth is and predict.
One of the things you’re going to see from me and not from a
lot of other pundits is that I predict all of the elections (at least all of
the gubernatorial, Senate, and House elections)-though I do feel that there are
still true tossups (we’ll analyze them below), and there are some races I’m
literally tossing a coin on, I think that you need to for the sake of bragging
rights point out where you’re headed with your predictions. Therefore I’m calling every race as we
go through them.
I know some sites go geographical on these write-ups, but
I’m going to go alphabetical, so we’ll be breaking these up over a few
different entries as a result. I
will profile every gubernatorial and Senate election, as well as any close
House election (if I don’t list the House election, I expect that it will have
little of note and will stay with the incumbent party). I might occasionally pipe in with a
different race on the ballot, but only those that I find particularly
compelling.
The big three questions that I’m still pondering heading
into Tuesday night are:
1. What exactly is
the size of the Republican wave?
The Republicans are clearly going to do well on Tuesday, but
the question remains exactly how well-will they outperform the polls, going
significantly into Obama territory, taking out seats like New Hampshire-2 or
Arizona-9 where they weren’t expected to do well, or will they remain primarily
in the purview of the races everyone is discussing?
2. What impact, if
any, will the Bannock Street Project have on the race?
The Bannock Street Project has been bandied about for months
as the way that the Democrats will counter the natural proclivity for the
electorate to defy the White House in a sixth-year midterm. States like Alaska, Colorado, and Iowa have
been major players throughout the Senate elections, but Democrats have
struggled to gain a firm upper-hand in all of them-will the Bannock Street
Project give them a crucial win or two in one of these states, thus saving the
Senate for Harry Reid?
3. Will there be
coattails?
One of the things I’ve been wondering has been around
coattails, and what direction they will head. Will State Sen. Wendy Davis’s awful campaign for governor of
Texas cost the Democrats in the 23rd? Will Paul Davis’s unexpectedly strong push in Kansas cause
someone like Rep. Lynn Jenkins to suddenly become vulnerable? Will strong performances from Al
Franken and Mark Dayton save Rick Nolan in Minnesota’s eighth? States are extremely tricky to predict
in terms of coattails, but we will definitely see some on-display come
Tuesday-the question is which side will get them in a year without a unifying
presidential race to cause the coattails?
Those are the three major questions I have going into the
write-up. Once we get done and I’ve
recapped all of the races, we’ll take a look at where the math landed and talk
about a few more questions if things happen the way I expect them to go. But for now, let’s start reciting our
alphabet and head into the Yellowhammer State…
Alabama
Governor: The only interesting thing about Gov. Robert
Bentley’s (R) near certain reelection is that he’s facing former Rep. Parker
Griffith, who switched parties again so
that he could get a clearer shot at a major party’s nomination. He just won’t get a clearer shot at
public office.
Senate: The only Senate race in the country without a
Democrat (or a clear proxy) running in it, Sen. Jeff Sessions (R) will easily
take a fourth term, and possibly will soon chair the Budget committee.
 |
| Sen. Mark Begich (D-AK) |
Alaska
Governor: In one of the most unexpectedly competitive races
in the country, Gov. Sean Parnell (R) is in the fight of his political life (I
hate when people overuse that phrase because it completely forgets history, but
in this case it’s true-Parnell has never been in an election where a loss
seemed so likely). Democrat Byron
Mallott dropped out of the race and is the Lieutenant Governor candidate to
Independent Bill Walker, who has led in polls, and considering the amount of Democrats/Independents
likely to vote in this election, may well benefit from the Bannock Street
project in a way few others could (including most Democratic Senate candidates). Walker has led in most polls in the
past two months, and I see no reason that all of those polls should be
wrong. Independents +1
Senate: Sen. Mark Begich (D) has run an admirable
campaign. Six years ago he was
largely written off as a one-term senator after he won a fluke election against
Sen. Ted Stevens (it was one of those races where EVERYTHING had to go right,
and he still barely won). He’s
certainly run a campaign and kept the margin close enough that he can hardly be
called a fluke, but barring some sort of Bannock Street miracle (this is one of
several states where that seems to be the only card left unplayed), Sullivan
will win this seat, fulfilling the confidence levels of those who wrote off
Begich six years. It’s worth
noting, though (if you’re lighting a candle for the Democrats to hold the
Senate), that Begich has clearly rebounded a bit in the polls in the past
week-Alaska is notoriously difficult to poll, and if the Democrats were to pull
the miracle, it would probably involve Alaska in some way. Still, though, I’m going with Republicans +1
Arizona
Governor: Polling in Arizona has been scarce considering that
some have considered this seat somewhat in play, but the reality is that if
Democrat Fred DuVal had a chance of upsetting State Treasurer (and former Cold
Stone Creamery owner) Doug Ducey we would have heard about it by now. Jan Brewer will hand this off to one of
her own.
House: One of the tightest pair of races in the country is
occurring in the Grand Canyon State.
In the first district, Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick (D) has managed to keep her
election against Arizona House Speaker Andy Tobin fairly close, but I am
probably not going to be kind to Democrats running in Romney-won districts this
cycle, and I think that despite running the better campaign, Kirkpatrick has
too liberal of a voting record to pull this off. Ditto Rep. Ron Barber (D) who has an easier election, but a
tougher opponent in Martha McSally, who nearly defeated him two years ago. Barber has run a better campaign than
he did two years ago, and if the Democrats don’t have a particularly brutal night,
I’d say he could skate by on personal goodwill, but the polls are showing a
strong headwind for the GOP. The
somewhat bright spot for the Democrats would be in AZ-9, where Rep. Krysten
Sinema seems assured reelection after looking somewhat vulnerable at the start
of the cycle. Republicans +2
 |
| Rep. Tom Cotton (R-AR) |
Arkansas
Governor: Democrats got exactly the candidates they were
hoping for in 2014, but in a state that has turned so sharply to the right,
that’s probably not going to be enough.
Former Rep. Asa Hutchinson has never won statewide office in Arkansas before,
despite multiple attempts, but should be able to defeat former Rep. Mike Ross
(D) to take this seat from the Democrats. Republicans
+1
Senate: Sen. Mark Pryor (D) came to the Senate twelve years
ago as a hero, one of the few bright spots on an otherwise rough night for the
Democrats (oddly enough, he beat Asa Hutchinson’s brother to win the Senate
seat). So popular was he six years
ago that he didn’t even have an opponent.
That changed this year. As
has been a recurring theme this cycle, the Democrats kept it closer than the
national environment allowed and ran the better campaign (Rep. Tom Cotton still
seems a bit stiff on the stump, and may suffer from Bobby Jindal-like too-high
expectations), but that won’t save this seat for them. Republicans +1
House: This is one of the few potential bright spots for the
Democrats of the House cycle-polling has been scarce, but a recent Talk
Business poll actually had Democratic Mayor Henry Hays up over former White
House aide French Hill. This is
one of those races where it’s hard to tell how much of an impact up-ballot
races will matter (it’s quite possible, in fact, that Ross and Pryor will
actually win this district, helping Hays). Therefore I’m going to make this one of the very few upsets
that I’m going to predict in favor of the Democrats and ever so slightly give
it to Hays. Democrats +1
 |
| Rep. Julia Brownley (D-CA) |
California
Governor: Gov. Jerry Brown always has his eyes on the next
prize (seriously-he’s going to run to be Oakland’s mayor at eighty?!?), but
first he needs to win reelection, which he will do handily.
House: The Democrats had a marvelous time in California a
few years back, but they don’t seem as likely to repeat it this year. While Rep. Gary Miller’s (R) seat is a
goner for the GOP thanks to his retirement, the rest of the map isn’t so great
(though I will point out that Amanda Renteria ran a very strong campaign but
picked the wrong cycle to do it, and should be a quick recruit for 2016 when
her district will be more likely to flip). Republicans have run a marvelous election in Rep. Ami Bera’s
seventh district, and I think that former Rep. Doug Ose (R) should take back a
seat in Congress. I would have
said the same for San Diego City Councilman Carl DeMaio (R), who has run an
even better campaign than Ose, but the late allegations that he sexually
harassed an employee, coupled with the fact that hard right Republicans may be
reluctant to get out and vote for an openly gay Republican with nothing else
compelling them to do so on the ballot means that Rep. Scott Peters should be
able to barely take the 52nd.
The hardest of the three close races in California to gage is the 26th,
which is a later-breaking race with no polling. Rep. Julia Brownley (D) isn’t a good campaigner and her
election in 2012 was closer than expected. Still, though, without any polling or gut feeling I’m going
to default to the incumbent. As a
result, California comes out as a wash for both parties. (Random add-on from John: Apparently
there is some scuttle that Rep. Lois Capps, a longtime incumbent from a very
blue district, may be vulnerable-I don’t see it, but the national parties are
spending money here so I figured it was worth mentioning).
 |
| Rep. Cory Gardner (R-CO) |
Colorado
Governor: Gov. John Hickenlooper (D) hasn’t run the sort of
race that deserves to win reelection.
He’s been a lackluster incumbent, and has not handled a number of issues
that have arisen during his first term with a great deal of skill (including
the gun control debate that could be his undoing). Still, this is a slightly Democratic-leaning state, and
former Rep. Bob Beauprez is not Rep. Cory Gardner in terms of political
ability; as a result, this is a closer race than the Senate race looks. If I didn’t have the knowledge that the
Republicans appear to be outperforming in early voting, I probably wouldn’t do
this, but I do, so I’m going to go with the GOP taking this seat. Republicans +1
Senate: Rep. Cory Gardner (R) has proven competent, though
not necessarily outstanding, living somewhat in the middle of the expectations
that hailed him as the second coming.
Still, though, he has done enough to prove teflon on personhood, which
was supposed to be his undoing-Mark Udall clearly overplayed the “War on Women”
card during the cycle (his approval ratings with women reflect this), and will
likely lose as a result. Still,
though, this could close if Sen. Michael Bennet’s Bannock Street project can
live up to the hype (he’ll almost certainly want to save his fellow senator
while he’s heading the DSCC). Republicans
+1
House: Speaker Andrew Romanoff (D) clearly has an issue with
timing. Four years after he
misread the room and lost in a primary to Sen. Michael Bennet (Harry Reid
wanted all incumbents, regardless of their tenure, running in 2010 to offset
losses), he picked the wrong cycle to challenge theoretically vulnerable Rep.
Mike Coffman. This is an
Obama-district, and will surely have strong turnout thanks to the Senate and
Governor’s races, but Coffman has withstood the slight blue nature of the
district before, and the congressional committee has pulled out of the race,
indicating that they don’t think there’s hope left here.
Connecticut
Governor: One of the tightest races in the country if you
look at polling, we are seeing a rematch between Gov. Dan Malloy (D) and
Ambassador Tom Foley (R). Four
years ago Malloy won in part because the Democrats had been out of office for
years and thanks to this state’s natural blue lean. This year the same argument is there, except that Malloy is
now an unpopular incumbent, and I think that’s enough to tilt the balance to
the Republicans in a state that they have a pretty noted history of going red
for the statehouse and blue everywhere else. Republicans +1
Delaware
Senate: Sen. Chris Coons (D) four years ago turned Christine
O’Donnell into a warning label for the Republicans, as they watched a safe seat
slip through their hands. They’ll
have no such luck at this race being competitive this year, as Coons will
easily triumph, proving that sometimes a third tier candidate can turn into a
longtime incumbent.
No comments:
Post a Comment