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| Salt Lake City Councilor Ben McAdams (D-UT) |
Senate: I'm still not entirely sure what Mitt Romney's game plan is here. At the age of 71, he'd be the oldest freshman senator elected since the 17th amendment was ratified (though if Phil Bredesen wins, he'll take that title away from Romney), and he's unlikely to ever be the GOP nominee for president in a Republican Party that belongs to Donald Trump. Also, as is evidenced by this campaign, he's not willing to be the GOP foe to Trump on Capitol Hill (he's unlikely to take the mantle of a John McCain or Joe Lieberman). Perhaps he just missed the attention? Whatever the reasons, he's going to get his wish as this is an easy hold for the GOP with Sen. Orrin Hatch finally retiring after 42 years in DC.
House: Utah, gerrymandered to the hilt to avoid a blue Salt Lake County district (the state's largest county is split into two congressional districts, and all four districts break up the Salt Lake City metro area in hopes of avoiding a Democrat winning a House seat in the state), was always a bit vulnerable to a Democratic win in at least one district, and that was probably going to be the fourth, a seat that Donald Trump won, but only got 39% of the vote (most of the rest being split between Hillary Clinton and Evan McMullin). Republican Rep. Mia Love has long struggled to put away this district, and it's hard not to assume that there's some racism/sexism involved with that struggle (Love is the only black woman serving as a Republican in Congress), and it looks like 2018 may be her toughest contest since being elected. Salt Lake County Mayor Ben McAdams comes with universal name recognition, and increasingly has taken a lead in the polls against Love. It's certainly not be the way that Democrats want to win a House seat, but Love's soft support amongst the GOP combined with McAdams personal popularity should give the Democrats an unusual victory in the Beehive State. D+1
Vermont
Governor: Christine Halquist will go down in history as the first transgendered person to win a major party's nomination for governor. She will not, however, go down in history as the first to win such a race, as Gov. Phil Scott (R) seems to be bucking the national tide and should win this contest with ease.
Senate: There are a lot of questions surrounding Bernie Sanders intentions for his next term (mainly "will he run for president?"). There is no question over whether he'll get another term, however, as that's a certainty.
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| Abigail Spanberger (D-VA) |
Senate: Two years after winning the popular vote but losing the electoral college, Sen. Tim Kaine looks like he'll cruise to a second term in the Old Dominion. While Kaine probably would have beaten anybody against him in 2018, that the Republicans nominated Corey Stewart sealed the deal for the state's junior senator. Stewart is arguably the most controversial major party nominee for the Senate this year, a strong backer of conversion therapy, confederate monuments, and who once called a white nationalist his personal hero. Stewart could lose by as much as 20 points in Virginia, and might well cost Republicans down-ballot.
House: Stewart's presence at the top of the ballot means that Republicans not only have to run against Donald Trump in liberal districts, they have to run against another man who favors the term nationalist. That could pose a problem in a state that went heavily blue in 2017 (even more so than they did in 2016, when Hillary Clinton won). There are four contests of note, and before I dive into the proper tossups, let's start with the easiest call: Rep. Barbara Comstock (R) is going to lose. Though she's a skilled campaigner & fundraiser, Comstock is running in a district that Clinton won by ten points and Gov. Ralph Northam won in 2017 by 13...plus, she's polling down by over ten points to Democratic State Sen. Jennifer Wexton. You just can't overcome odds like that-Wexton wins, and probably keeps this seat safe for a while. The other three races are much tougher calls. The 2nd district also went for Northam (though not for Clinton), and both sides like their candidates, though Rep. Scott Taylor (R) has held his own in polls against Naval Commander Elaine Luria (D), and should be able to win unless Stewart is properly toxic at the top of the ticket. Weirdly the more conservative 7th district looks closer in the polls, perhaps due to the star recruit of CIA operative Abigail Spanberger (D) against foot-in-mouth Rep. Dave Brat (still famous for besting Eric Cantor a few years back in the primary). Polls show a tight race, and I'm going to give this to Spanberger in that case-I think Stewart makes Republicans stay home rather than vote for a white nationalist, and Spanberger benefits because Democrats will turn out for Kaine to stop Stewart. Thus, any ties go to the Dem here. The 5th district is weird because neither candidate is particularly good. Democratic nominee Leslie Cockburn (a journalist the mother of actress Olivia Wilde) is running in this seat that was vacated by Rep. Tom Garrett (R), and feels too liberal for a district that Donald Trump won. In a normal cycle, an open seat like this would go to the Republicans as it is pretty conservative, but her opponent Denver Riggleman is heading into Election Day most famous for being an admirer of bigfoot erotica (yes, you read that right...America in 2018 is weird, people). Polling shows this being close, and once again a tie I'm giving to the Democrat here-Cockburn should win, even if she's just a one-term wonder congresswoman, and I'm going to go D+3 even though I'm only confident about one of these four calls.
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| Dr. Kim Schrier (D-WA) |
Senate: I think it was Roll Call that used to do an article about the most invisible members of the House each year. If they did one on the Senate, I'd have to bet Maria Cantwell would be on it, as she's arguably the least visible member of the Democratic Senate when it comes to public debates. This still won't cost her reelection, but after 18 years in the Senate (plus two in the House) it's odd that she isn't more of a presence on Capitol Hill.
House: The Democrats are targeting three seats in Washington, but unlike other states, one could make the argument that the Republicans are running the better races here. The Democrats could be competitive in the 3rd or 5th districts, as they have quality challengers and these are the sorts that Donald Trump has underperformed in nationally since the election, but Reps. Jamie Herrera Beutler and Cathy McMorris Rodgers, respectively, should be able to win reelection even if it's by smaller-than-usual margins. However, the 8th is an open seat, and actually voted against Trump in 2016 (picking Hillary Clinton by 3-points). Since 1994, no party has been able to hold an open seat that didn't go for the incumbent president in the previous election, and as a result the Democrats have a very good shot at winning a seat that has long alluded them (despite winning the seat since 1992 on a presidential level, Republicans have kept this seat with popular Reps. Jennifer Dunn & Dave Reichert). Former State Sen. Dino Rossi arguably is the closest Republican to changing that streak this year. Despite this being a slight blue district, Rossi has run three times statewide in Washington (for governor in 2004 and 2008, and then for Senate in 2010), and has carried the 8th district all three times. Pediatrician Kim Schrier (D) had struggled to gain against Rossi's name recognition, but in the last couple of weeks seems to be pulling even with Rossi. As a result, I think Rossi (famous for losing by minuscule margins in his quests for higher office) will ultimately lose yet again, but considering how slowly Washington counts its ballots, we might not know the result here until Wednesday or Thursday, and I would not be stunned if Rossi's personal brand is enough to save this seat from that twenty-year losing drought for the White House incumbents. D+1
West Virginia
Senate: Democrats across the country inevitably grumble about Sen. Joe Manchin. He's that uncle at Thanksgiving you tolerate even though he says vaguely sexist things when you tell him you have a female boss and take turns grumbling about in the kitchen. It's hard to tell if Manchin will ultimately regret voting for Brett Kavanaugh since it alienated his base, but I am going to assume he doesn't. This will be closer than the polls appear (West Virginia is getting out-of-range even for an incumbent as personally popular with moderate Republicans as Manchin), but he should be able to win another, probably final, term in office.
House: State Sen. Richard Ojeda (D) is an unconventional Democrat. He defeated an incumbent in 2016 during the primary, then turned around and voted for Donald Trump for POTUS (a vote he says he now regrets). He's also a pretty gruff campaigner, very much in the mold of Joe Manchin. However, while Manchin will win this district by double digits, I don't think Ojeda can pull this off-State Del. Carol Miller has led in most recent polls, and as a Republican can hug Donald Trump pretty closely in a district that still likes him. But Ojeda has made a name for himself, and I suspect we'll hear from him again in the future.
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| Gov. Scott Walker (R-WI) |
Governor: Like the swallows to Capistrano, Democrats return for a fourth time to see if they can finally best Gov. Scott Walker, the poster boy for the Koch Brothers and one of the Right's biggest stars of the past decade. Walker has appeared vulnerable before, but never quite like 2018, and he's never won reelection by a substantive margin. The last Marquette poll showed the race at a tie, but other polls have favored State Superintendent Tony Evers (D) by a more substantial margin. It's entirely possible that Walker pulls this off at the end of the day...any Democrat who counts him out before Tuesday is a fool. But Evers is the best opponent he's ever faced, and Walker's never run in an unfriendly environment. Unless Beto O'Rourke wins in Texas, this is probably going to be the individual race Democrats are most happy about winning on Tuesday. D+1
Senate: It says something that, two years after Donald Trump's surprise and critical win in Wisconsin (the tipping point state for his victory), it is Scott Walker, and not Sen. Tammy Baldwin, who is more vulnerable for defeat on Tuesday. Baldwin started this cycle as one of the most vulnerable senators but seems to be ending it an easy "W" despite being significantly more liberal than the state at-large.
House: I'm still royally mad the Democrats screwed themselves over in the first district, favoring Randy Bryce (the Ironstache who raised gargantuan amounts of money despite being arrested multiple times) over School Board Member Cathy Myers, as I think Myers would be winning this race while Bryce seems likely to lose the open seat of Paul Ryan. The best shot the Democrats have at a pickup here seems to be the 6th district, where Rep. Glenn Grothmann is running against attorney Dan Kohl (nephew to former Sen. Herb Kohl, who used to own the Milwaukee Bucks). Kohl has gained a lot of steam in recent days, as Republicans appear to be nervous about this one, but this is such a conservative race I need more proof before I say Grothmann can be defeated. If Kohl wins, look for him to quickly make a play for statewide office as a Democrat cannot hold a seat like this for long (Ron Johnson has to be particularly interested in the result of this race).
Wyoming
Governor: I always hate ending these with Wyoming, because what a disappointment since it's never competitive. Considering the races in Oklahoma, South Dakota, and Kansas, I would have liked to have seen at least one poll between State Treasurer Mark Gordon (R) and State Rep. Mary Throne (D), since Wyoming has elected Democrats as recently as 2006 for governor, but a lack of polling likely indicates the status quo.
Senate: Surely the safest Republican up for reelection in the Senate, John Barrasso will win another term in the Equality State.
Final Thoughts & Numbers:
Governor: I have the Democrats picking up nine seats (FL, IA, IL, ME, MI, NM, NV, OH, and WI), while the Republicans lose at least seven (picking up only Alaska's independent seat, so not a loss for the D's even if it's a gain for the GOP). As a reminder, I didn't call the Georgia governor's race since I don't think Brian Kemp or Stacey Abrams will win on Tuesday, and the runoff will largely be dictated by the results of Tuesday; obviously if Abrams wins, this will affect the net score for the Democrats. This is a very good result for the Democrats, though it could be better (GA, AK, SD, and KS feel very in-play, and it's not out of the question as a result that the party could make a double-digit gain on Tuesday). The converse is less true-I feel pretty optimistic about all but Florida, Wisconsin, and Ohio, and each of those seats should be flipped in the current environment. Though it's an arbitrary number, if the Democrats can net one more of those four closest Republican-predicted seats, they'll be at 26 governorships, and thus have the majority of the governors' mansions for the first time since 2010.
Senate: I have predicted no net change for the Senate's party composition, with Democrats taking Arizona and Nevada, while Republicans pick up Missouri and North Dakota. While there are a lot of conversations about whether the Democrats can pick up the Senate, I have to argue that this feels like a pretty good result for Democrats, all things considered. I could easily, for example, see, Indiana, Arizona, Nevada, and Florida (in that order) going to the GOP, for a net gain of four for the Republicans, as this is a tough election cycle for the D's to have to compete (if you put the 2020 or 2022 election maps out this year, a Dem majority would have been a foregone conclusion). Republicans may talk about a filibuster-proof majority, but Montana and West Virginia don't feel within reach, and Minnesota-B (Tina Smith's seat) and New Jersey are likely out-of-scope even if polls show them closer-than-Dems-would-like, so the filibuster (in its weakened form) shall remain.
Conversely, it's easy to see the Democrats getting to 50 seats. Missouri is a very close race, and McCaskill is a fighter. I wouldn't be shocked at all if she won a 1-2 point victory on Tuesday, getting the Dems to a tied Senate. The problem for the Democrats is it's not McCaskill they need to get to 51 seats, but Bredesen, Heitkamp, or O'Rourke. None of these candidates appears likely to win, however, and it's hard to tell who the tipping point senator is. The polls are closest in Tennessee, Heitkamp has proven she can actually win a Senate seat in North Dakota, and O'Rourke's appeal to first-time voters makes him most likely to prove the polls wrong...but none of them are favorites and all would count as surprises. 1 or 2 people in their positions do win elections every cycle, but they are few-and-far-between, and the idea that one of them is the lucky candidate who pulls off a race like this on the same night that Democrats sweep the true tossups (NV/AZ/FL/IN/MO) feels a wish too far for the left.
House: The Senate is the marquee race, but it is the House that matters. Individual polling of House races have shown since I started writing this article that the Democrats have a better shot of winning than they did even two weeks ago, but this is still a race the Democrats could lose. I don't count until the end of doing all of the individual states how many contests I'm calling for the Democrats, but my grand total is...D+36. That feels about right, and should be a number the Democrats are comfortable heading into Election Night with, but not too confident. Unlike the Senate, I see more upside for the Democrats than downside. I did predict a few Dem seats that could go GOP (MN-1, KY-6, NY-22, VA-7, and WA-8 all come to mind), but honestly there's just as many if not more seats that feel like the Dems are on the cusp of winning surprise upsets (GA-6, IL-14, MI-8, AK-AL, NJ-3, & NC-9 all are races that could make up for a loss in one of my predicted races). As a result, I think we're looking at a split Congress come January, with Nancy Pelosi regularly going head-to-head with Donald Trump.
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