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| Attorney General Richard Cordray (D-OH) |
Governor: The Buckeye State took a hard right turn in 2016, with some questioning whether or not it could still be considered America's quintessential bellwether state after such a contest (Ohio has voted for the winning presidential candidate every election in the last century except 1944 & 1960, a better record than any other state). In 2018, though, it does look like the Democrats have a strong chance of proving the malleability of the Ohio electorate, as the race to succeed Republican Gov. John Kasich (the most prominent remaining "Never Trumper") seems inclined to pick Democrat Richard Cordray, the state's former attorney general over Mike DeWine (the current attorney general). Ohio is tough for Democrats as a rule, so I wouldn't count DeWine out, but he's lost here before (in 2006) during a wave (oddly, so has Cordray, so this could be revenge for DeWine's victory over Cordray in that year's AG race), so it's not unprecedented, and while Kasich is popular, a lot of that popularity comes from Democrats who like his anti-Trump stance, and could be behind Cordray. I was initially more skeptical of Cordray's chances, but a Democrat with this consistent of a lead should be able to emerge victorious. D+1
Senate: One of the bigger victories for Democrats this year is that four of the states where Democrats had to win in Trump-won states (Michigan, Ohio, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania) never really materialized into real races. That's a big coup for the D's who got to play more offense in places like Texas & Tennessee as a result. Nowhere was that more evident than Ohio, where Sen. Sherrod Brown seems likely to trounce sitting-Rep. Jim Renacci by high single digits, possibly approaching double digit territory.
House: In a very similar vein to North Carolina, there's a lot of potential in Ohio for a House pickup for the Democrats, but I'm not entirely convinced that one will actually cross the finish line in one of the more heavily gerrymandered states in the country. OH-7, OH-10, OH-14, and OH-15 have decent Dem challengers, but the Republican incumbents feel entrenched. Aftab Pureval seemed like a possible candidate to upset Rep. Steve Chabot in the 1st district, but he's struggled to gain traction and the DCCC has seemed lukewarm about his chances. If there is a +1 in Ohio, it's probably coming in the 12th district, which the Democrats nearly picked up a few weeks ago with Danny O'Connor exceeding expectations against now-Rep. Troy Balderson. Special election results rarely switch at their initial general election, but polling shows this race just as close as it was in August, and there will obviously be more voters this time out-will they be bluer? I don't think he can do it, but if the night is a strong one for the D's, watch for O'Connor to defy history.
Oklahoma
Governor: Oklahoma is another ruby-red state that might be positioned to elect a Democrat this year. Republicans chose arguably their worst primary candidate in Kevin Stitt (a mortgage banker), they have to succeed wildly-unpopular Gov. Mary Fallin, and the Democrats chose an ace candidate in former Attorney General Drew Edmondson. This has been on a lot of people's tossup lists for a while, but while Edmondson is going to make it closer than your average Republican in this state, polling shows Stitt with a small-but-consistent lead. I have to assume that that holds on Election Night, and he ends up winning.
House: I have said for months that my bet for the biggest election night upset will be in Oklahoma's 5th district. While the state is ruby red, they have had a harder left swing than you'd think in special elections thanks in large part to disliked Gov. Mary Fallin's track record (particularly on education). Polling shows Rep. Steve Russell leading Democrat Kendra Horn, though, so I can't quite get to the point where I'm predicting Russell, but I still think this is one worth mentioning as it'll be close by Oklahoma standards, and if Democrats are around the 50 seat gain rather than 30-35, Horn is probably in the cards for a shock victory.
Oregon
Governor: There aren't a lot of Democratic governors even running for reelection this year, but it's worth noting that there are two that seem a bit vulnerable (we'll get to the other one in a second). Arguably the more vulnerable of the two seems to be Gov. Kate Brown, who is running for her first full-term as governor this year (she succeeded to the post in 2015 upon the resignation of Gov. John Kitzhaber). Brown, probably the nation's most progressive governor, has struggled in the state that is more moderate than its northern and southern neighbors even if it's also pretty darn blue, and without a Senate contest on the ballot, it's hard for Brown to frame this as a battle against Donald Trump (the way that someone like Andrew Gillum or Steve Sisolak might be able to do). Still, it's 2018 and she's led in nearly every poll, so I think Brown should be fine to continue Oregon's 30-year streak of Democrats winning this office.
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| Attorney Susan Wild (D-PA), whomI predict will win two elections on Tuesday |
Governor: Democrats lost Pennsylvania in 2016 in one of their more brutal defeats (the Democrats had won the state in every election since 1992), but they may have 2018 as a balm on those wounds come Tuesday. Gov. Tom Wolf (D) is cruising to a second term, and polls show this race is out-of-range for Republicans.
Senate: Like Sherrod Brown up top, Sen. Bob Casey (D) has garnered a challenge from a sitting Republican congressman (Lou Barletta), that ultimately appears to be headed nowhere. Expect Casey to get a double digit win for a third term.
House: Here it is for the Democrats-the mother load. Thanks to a court-mandated redistricting of Pennsylvania (to correct a horrible gerrymandering of the state), the Keystone State should be the biggest haul for the Democrats of the night. It seems probable that while the Democrats will lose the 14th (currently held by Conor Lamb), Lamb will pick up the 17th for them, besting Rep. Keith Rothfus in this year's only member-vs-member race (so that's a wash). The Republicans don't have incumbents running in the redrawn 5th, 6th, and 7th, and it's probable that all three of these races end up going to the Democrats, though the 7th is closer than the other two; it's worth noting that the Democrats running in the 5th and 7th (Mary Gay Scanlon & Susan Wild, respectively) are also running in special elections under the old, more conservative district lines, and I suspect they'll both win in those contests as well, giving them a bit of seniority over their fellow freshmen come January, though in both cases (particularly Wild's) that's not assured since they are under the old lines. The first district is the truest proper tossup in Pennsylvania, pitting Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick (R) against Democrat Scott Wallace who, after a rocky start, seems to have rebounded nicely. While Fitzpatrick is a tough politician to best (his well-liked brother held the district previously and many might confuse the two when they vote as they have the same last name), I think Wallace can win this thanks to depressed GOP turnout at the top of the ticket. Republican Reps. Scott Perry (10th), Lloyd Smucker (11th), and Mike Kelly (16th) have all seen recent polling that shows them more vulnerable than assumed, but these are pretty conservative seats even with the districts redrawn, so I am going to assume they all win (as well as Democratic Rep. Matt Cartwright, in a more conservative district but likely fine in 2018), so let's go with D+4, but it's entirely possible that this gets D's 1-2 more seats if Republicans skip thanks to the Wolf/Casey romp at the top of the ballot.
Rhode Island
Governor: The other vulnerable Democratic governor on the map, incumbent Gina Raimondo is no one's idea of a popular incumbent, but after surviving a primary challenge, she seems to have also improved her standing in the general against Cranston Mayor Allen Fung (her 2014 opponent as well, so this is a rematch). Expect her to win and remain unpopular, which is usually the lot-in-life for New England Democratic governors.
Senate: Remember twelve years ago when Rhode Island actually had a Republican senator? Well, it's a dozen years after the fact and what was once a close contest is now a romp for Sheldon Whitehouse (and his 2006 opponent is now a Democrat).
South Carolina
Governor: There are a lot of red-seat Republican governors who look vulnerable headed into Tuesday, but Henry McMaster doesn't appear to be one of them. The Democrats have a good candidate in State Sen. James Smith, but he won't get close, and this might just be a practice run for someone looking to take on Lindsey Graham in 2020.
House: Rep. Mark Sanford lost in the primaries for this seat (one of the very few already-bested incumbents this cycle), and in theory this could be competitive. State Rep. Katie Arrington is more traditionally conservative than Sanford (who is a noted Trump critic), and Democrat Joe Cunningham seems like a decent candidate. We've only seen one poll in this race, which had Cunningham down by seven points, but it's the sort of race (on paper) that would be competitive if the Democrats close well. Still, without polling I have to give this race to Arrington, but keep an eye on it if you start hearing the words "Democrats exceed expectations" a lot on news outlets Tuesday night.
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| State Senate Minority Leader Billie Sutton (D-SD) |
Governor: No state has made the Democrats wander in the wilderness quite as long as South Dakota has in the quest to win the governorship. The last Democrat to win here is Dick Kneip in 1974, meaning that South Dakota has had a Republican governor for your entire life if you're under 39 (the longest current streak for either party in the nation). That could change this year. The Democrats wisely chose Senate Minority Leader Billie Sutton as their nominee; Sutton, a former rodeo star who was paralyzed during an accident when he was 23, appears to be a great retail politicker in South Dakota, and has closed the race to a near tie against Rep. Kristi Noem. Noem, who won a tough primary, is arguably the worst-possible candidate for the general election for Republicans, as it's hard enough for a member of Congress to be elected governor (it's a promotion voters shy away from though New Mexico & Minnesota seem like they'll be exceptions to this rule this year), and DC Republicans that aren't named Trump aren't very popular right now. This is still South Dakota, so even in a perfect storm Sutton could struggle, but this is the best shot the Democrats have had since 1986 to win this contest, and Sutton might make history on Tuesday night. I'm just not ready to predict it: Noem by four at the end of the day.
Tennessee
Governor: First off, does anyone know why Tennessee has so many independents running for public office? Seriously-it looks like a California recall up in here. It doesn't matter, of course, as Republican businessman Bill Lee will cruise to a win to succeed term-limited Gov. Bill Haslam (R).
Senate: In the waning days of the campaign, few contests have me raising my eyebrows more than the Tennessee Senate race. For months, former Gov. Phil Bredesen (a popular, 74-year-old Democratic former governor who hadn't been on a ballot in 2006 prior to this year's primaries), held a slim lead over Rep. Marsha Blackburn, a conservative firebrand who made a name for herself as a climate change denier, but Blackburn rebounded hard throughout the fall and this appeared to be a close race that was still going to ultimately go to Blackburn. In the past few days, though, polls have started to tighten and early voting among young people has skyrocketed (this may or may not be due to Taylor Swift, but I kind of think she deserves some credit here with her surprise endorsement from Bredesen right before the voter registration deadline). I think Blackburn will win this race, and I'm going to predict her to, but it's clear that Bredesen has at least some momentum in the race right now and that he is better-liked personally than Blackburn, even if she could beat him on Election Day. As a result, this is still a race to watch.
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| Rep. Beto O'Rourke (D-TX) |
Governor: Yes, yes, we'll get to that race in a second, but we need to at least acknowledge that while Texas may have a chance at being blue this year, it will still elect George Bush-clone Greg Abbott to a second term by a huge margin.
Senate: Perhaps you've heard about this race? The marquee contest of the cycle pits freshman Sen. Ted Cruz (R), a 2016 presidential candidate who became a meme for looking like the Zodiac killer, against Rep. Beto O'Rourke, the ridiculously handsome, guitarist congressman who sounds like a young Bobby Kennedy. If this race was happening in a bluer state (say, Wisconsin), it would be over. O'Rourke has run the sort of campaign that gets you a presidential nomination, and has made huge inroads in Texas. It's obvious that in the contest of "whom would you rather have a beer with?" O'Rourke would win (no one seems to actually like Ted Cruz, even if he's clearly got some talent on the stump to make it this far in his career), but party labels still matter, and while O'Rourke has run a very impressive race for a Democrat, this is still Texas. It's hard to tell how many first-time voters he'd need to win a race where he's down by 6.5 points in aggregate polling, but I can count on one hand how many races I've seen a challenger overcome odds like that. I suspect that Cruz wins, that O'Rourke becomes a 2020 candidate that ultimately goes nowhere (because, quite frankly, without a "W," he'll be too easily branded a loser), and that Democrats will still be hugely thankful to him because he'll have shown them the best path to eventually create a Blue Texas.
House: O'Rourke's loss could still drive up massive turnout down-ballot in three competitive House races that might flip thanks to the congressman driving up first-time voters. The best shot the Democrats have appears to be the 32nd district, with former NFL player Colin Allred in a tough campaign against Rep. Pete Sessions in one of three districts in Texas that Hillary Clinton won (that are currently held by Republicans). A similar race is being pitched between Rep. John Culberson (R) and attorney Lizzie Pannill Fletcher (D), one that Culberson has struggled with as he hasn't run a close race in a while. I have been debating which of these races to pick to ultimately go blue, and I'm going to go out on a limb and guess both will. I don't think O'Rourke can turn out enough first-time voters to win, but combined with Clinton voters in these districts and a lack of great personal popularity for the incumbents, I think Allred & Fletcher both win thanks to O'Rourke's campaign. The third contest is in the 23rd (another Clinton district), but I say the Republican is slightly favored there, as Will Hurd has done better with crossover voters, and Gina Ortiz Jones hasn't caught on in the same way as Fletcher & Allred have. Still, this is a Clinton district and Hurd can't be happy that Donald Trump has made his pitch to remove birthright citizenship immediately before the election in a district that is almost 70% Hispanic. If Hurd somehow loses on election night, place the blame solely at Donald Trump's feet. D+2
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