2025 Oscar Viewing Project

Just in time for Oscar next weekend, I have officially seen all of the Oscar Viewing Project contenders for 2025!  For the second year in a row, I've done this before the ceremony, which feels very in-theme for how we operate.  For those that are new, the Oscar Viewing Project has me watching every single narrative, feature-length nominee at the Academy Awards (i.e. no shorts or documentaries, unless they're in the traditionally feature-length, narrative categories), and rating them in a vacuum, picking my choices based on whom Oscar selected based solely on the quality of the 3-5 nominees in front of me.  If you are truly new, this is the 32nd of the 98 Oscar ceremonies we've done this for, and you can see links at the bottom of this list for past contests.  For the first time since 2001, we have a new category that will be added, and it will be covered (Casting), and I will also be adding it to the My Ballots going forward (though not retroactively).  I have a few more screenings left to finish up the 2025 My Ballot (where I pick the nominees), including one specific animated film that's been annoyingly hard to get ahold of, but in the meantime, we will sort through Oscar.  As a reminder, here was where the domestic box office ranked in 2025:

1. Zootopia 2

2. A Minecraft Movie

3. Lilo & Stitch

4. Avatar: Fire and Ash

5. Superman

6. Wicked: For Good

7. Jurassic World: Rebirth

8. Sinners

9. The Fantastic Four: First Steps

10. How to Train Your Dragon

(Note: I will point out this is the current lineup as of the last writing.  Avatar: Fire and Ash, specifically, is still making relatively decent domestic money, though likely not enough to outearn Lilo & Stitch and move onto the medal stand)

Of these 10 films, I've seen eight of them, skipping both of the live-action animated remakes because, as a general rule, I think these are terrible.  I think it's notable, looking at this, how we have at least one truly original movie (Sinners becoming the highest-grossing totally original story since Gravity), and that the MCU truly just fell from grace here, with Thunderbolts not even crossing the $200M mark domestically and Captain America: Brave New World making $700M less than the last Captain America movie did at the box office (and only Fantastic Four making the Top 10).  Looking down the box office list, most of the unseen movies that I haven't caught yet are horror movie sequels, though The Housemaid stands out as maybe the movie I should've caught and might try to sneak in before the My Ballot (I will definitely be seeing How to Train Your Dragon given so many people loved the visual effects).

But now, it's time to go back just a few months to a time we all were getting a crush on Zohran Mamdani, watching Taylor & Travis get engaged, and seeing the first American pope.  And of course, let's remember the movies...

Picture

1. One Battle After Another

2. Hamnet

3. The Secret Agent

4. Sinners

5. Sentimental Value

6. Train Dreams

7. F1

8. Bugonia

9. Marty Supreme

10. Frankenstein

The Lowdown: This is a solid list in what was honestly a very good year for movies, maybe the best since 2021 or even 2017.  But there's no competition for Paul Thomas Anderson here-One Battle After Another is a profound, challenging picture with universally good acting and writing.  Hamnet is really special in second place, proving that Chloe Zhao is emerging as one of our most thoughtful and introspective directors, and I have a sincere enjoyment of the craftsmanship of something like The Secret Agent or Sinners, but One Battle is on another level, and as you'll see, is going to be batting really well this write-up.

Director

1. Paul Thomas Anderson (One Battle After Another)

2. Chloe Zhao (Hamnet)

3. Ryan Coogler (Sinners)

4. Joachim Trier (Sentimental Value)

5. Josh Safdie (Marty Supreme)

The Lowdown: A second showdown between Anderson & Zhao (both of whom are going to repeat when we get to the 2025 My Ballot), but I won't pretend this is a close race.  I've actually been much kinder to PTA than Oscar has (his films have plenty of My Ballot statues), but I'm glad on some level that Oscar waited for (what I hope) will be a coronation here as this will become the defining work of his career.  Also, I want to say for the record that Josh Safdie's personal troubles are not why he's in last...I just really did not like his movie.

Actor

1. Leonardo DiCaprio (One Battle After Another)

2. Michael B. Jordan (Sinners)

3. Wagner Moura (The Secret Agent)

4. Ethan Hawke (Blue Moon)

5. Timothee Chalamet (Marty Supreme)

The Lowdown: Best Actor remains the best lineup of the 2025 acting races, and I will own that none of these (not even Timmy in a movie I didn't like) is a bad performance.  In terms of a win, though, Leo's best work in years is really going to take it over Michael B. Jordan adding nuance to two different characters and Wagner Moura's steady, marked performance in The Secret Agent.  Leo's so good here-a man that even in his prime was over-his-head but in love with ideals and a woman who wouldn't stay, having to reengage with life to save the only thing he truly cares about...this is the kind of star power electricity that Leo promised when he was in his Chalamet years.

Actress

1. Jessie Buckley (Hamnet)

2. Emma Stone (Bugonia)

3. Renate Reinsve (Sentimental Value)

4. Kate Hudson (Song Sung Blue)

5. Rose Byrne (If I Had Legs I'd Kick You)

The Lowdown: I will largely skate by the elephant in the room (I love Rose Byrne, I love Kate Hudson, but these performances are not ranked incorrectly...do with that what you will), and instead focus on the real competition: Jessie Buckley's spiritual work as a mother trying to connect with a man she loves but can't understand and a boy she knows but cannot grasp, and Emma Stone's terrifying girlboss incarnate, totally grasping on to Bugonia's bizarre (and oftentimes off-kilter) wavelength.  I'm going with Buckley because I think she is able to connect more to the ending than Stone.

Supporting Actor

1. Sean Penn (One Battle After Another)

2. Benicio del Toro (One Battle After Another)

3. Stellan Skarsgard (Sentimental Value)

4. Delroy Lindo (Sinners)

5. Jacob Elordi (Frankenstein)

The Lowdown: I like #3-5 in other things (truth be told, there is no acting performance of the 20 that I truly disliked even if there are movies that were cited that I disliked, which is rare), but for me it's a competition between the two Oscar-winning acting titans in One Battle After Another.  I'm going with Penn not because he's the bigger performance, but because I think that big performances sometimes get a bad rap in modern acting (del Toro is certainly subtle), but you need them when you're playing a big character like he is, and he totally inhabits a unique type of weak toxicity that's rarely seen represented in the movies (but oftentimes on cable news).

Supporting Actress

1. Amy Madigan (Weapons)

2. Teyana Taylor (One Battle After Another)

3. Elle Fanning (Sentimental Value)

4. Wunmi Mosaku (Sinners)

5. Inga Ibsdotter Lileaas (Sentimental Value)

The Lowdown: Madigan gives one of the most unhinged supporting performances in recent years, channeling in many ways actors like Kathy Bates in Misery or Ruth Gordon in Rosemary's Baby to give us something truly terrifying (and speaking of Trump, if you think the red-haired clown terrorizing a group of children isn't an allegory for the guy that has plagued the Epstein list, watch again).  Taylor would be a really worthy winner too, and I love the imprint she made on this movie with only time in the first 40 minutes or so, but this is Madigan by the widest margin of the acting races.

Adapted Screenplay

1. One Battle After Another

2. Hamnet

3. Train Dreams

4. Bugonia

5. Frankenstein

The Lowdown: One Battle is not done with its wins yet, and takes another one for PTA.  One Battle is honestly one of the rare one of Anderson's films that is more of a director's achievement than a writing or acting one, but that doesn't mean that he doesn't have the oomph to best Hamnet, which is also a wonderful and deceptively strong screenplay (the way that it folds ideas of Shakespeare into the film, while also feeling vaguely universal).  The rest of this category I'd probably upend, and will when we get to the My Ballot.

Original Screenplay

1. Sinners

2. Sentimental Value

3. Blue Moon

4. It Was Just an Accident

5. Marty Supreme

The Lowdown: I'll be honest, the writing categories are where a relatively decent Best Picture lineup (like I said, 2025 is one of the best years for movies so far this decade) shows some chinks in the armor, as you have films like Marty Supreme & Bugonia where I actively disliked the endings and felt they took down chunks of the movie.  There is a touch of that with Sinners, so I will note that it is just barely beating out Sentimental Value (which nails its ending), but the inventive plotting and the way that it unfolds a closed door horror so well means I'm going to slightly favor the vampires over the Swedish introspection.

Animated Feature Film

1. Elio

2. Little Amelie, or the Character of Rain

3. Zootopia 2

4. Arco

5. KPop Demon Hunters

The Lowdown: In what was otherwise a strong year for cinema, I'll own that animation was terrible.  It's not even a case where we have a bunch of better films sitting around-KPop is good when the music is playing and Zootopia is good if you don't constantly compare it to the original and Arco is good if you pretend the melancholy ending was at all earned by the rest of the picture...but overall this is not an impressive list.  If I have to pick a winner, it'd be Elio, a somewhat forgettable Pixar movie that nonetheless has gorgeous animation, beautiful music, and some really strong emotional plotting, but would stand out more if Pixar hadn't been using the same plot for every non-Toy Story film since Cars 3).

International Feature Film

1. The Secret Agent (Brazil)

2. Sentimental Value (Norway)

3. It Was Just an Accident (France)

4. Sirat (Spain)

5. The Voice of Hind Rajab (Tunisia)

The Lowdown: The movies of this category used to, on very rare occasion, get nominations in other fields, but this year we have four of them nominated elsewhere and two nominated for Best Picture.  Even with this category, the Academy is becoming entirely focused on the Best Picture field.  Thankfully that's where this should be, as those are the two best movies of the bunch, with weirdly similar plots (both movies are essentially about how you can never know your parents).  I prefer The Secret Agent, a subtler movie with a more sprawling historical look behind it (and the better central performance), but honestly either one here is a winner.

Score

1. Hamnet

2. One Battle After Another

3. Sinners

4. Bugonia

5. Frankenstein

The Lowdown: I am a total sucker for Max Richter, whose soft melodies and gorgeous, romantic use of strings and swelling orchestras is a callback to the man I frequently confuse him with (Max Steiner).  Hamnet earned him his first Academy Award nomination, and I struggle to find a reason not to give him this (the OVP is in a vacuum, as a reminder, so I'm not trying to make up for lost time-just noting that Richter has gotten multiple My Ballot nods at this point, and will get another one in 2025 from me when we get there later this month).  One Battle After Another, by another favorite of mine (Jonny Greenwood) is really aces as well, even if it isn't quite as distinctive as we're used to from Greenwood's collaborations with Paul Thomas Anderson.

Original Song

1. "I Lied to You," Sinners

2. "Golden," KPop Demon Hunters

3. "Sweet Dreams of Joy," Viva Verdi!

4. "Train Dreams," Train Dreams

5. "Dear Me," Diane Warren: Relentless

The Lowdown: I sometimes struggle with how to grade this category, because I do feel that it should not just be about the quality of the song, but also about how it is incorporated into the movie.  "Golden" is an ear worm that I have not stopped listening to since it came out (there's a reason this became a genuine pop hit), but the "I Lied to You" sequence in Sinners is easily one of the best scenes of the year, and in my opinion deserves this statue even if "Golden" might be a better piece of music outside the realm of the movie.  Of the three also-rans (i.e. the songs you don't know), "Sweet Dreams of Joy" is much better than you'd expect, and sadly "Dear Me" is exactly what you'd expect (we really should've just given Diane Warren that Oscar for Burlesque and none of this would've happened).

Sound

1. F1

2. Sinners

3. One Battle After Another

4. Sirat

5. Frankenstein

The Lowdown: After watching Sirat, I realized why this was nominated (the sound work is on full-display throughout, and honestly is a supporting actor in how prominent it is), though unlike The Zone of Interest, I wasn't as impressed, and felt it bordered the line between best and most that sometimes tech categories can't distinguish.  I was far more impressed with F1 and Sinners, the former a sea of zooming cars & "you're practically there" race scenes, the latter a wonderfully constructed semi-musical.  I'm going to go with F1, a movie I think did both mixing & effects well (I'm old-school), but either would make a good winner.

Casting

1. Hamnet

2. Sinners

3. One Battle After Another

4. The Secret Agent

5. Marty Supreme

The Lowdown: The first year of this category, I also kind of need to set my own parameters of how I'm going to grade this, as (like editing) you don't entirely know what was left in the cutting process.  For me, I think it comes down to how well the cast works together, how ingenious/inventive the casting process is (particularly if an actor isn't an obvious choice), and whether there are any clear standout good/bad casting decisions that elevate/demote it.  For me, I have Hamnet over the next two-I don't think there's a bad choice in the casts here, which is saying something as there usually is, but Hamnet had the stunt casting of two actual brothers to underline one character and the character he inspired, and that on top of Mescal & Buckley being perfect for their parts puts it in the lead.

Cinematography

1. Train Dreams

2. One Battle After Another

3. Sinners

4. Marty Supreme

5. Frankenstein

The Lowdown: Sinners has, for my money, some of the best cinematography of the year.  The Golden Hour shots are honestly breathtaking, but the night scenes suffer (by my personal tastes), with them trying to patch over some of the gaps in the visual effects (I liked the makeup, but the visual effects were more hit-or-miss for me), by making the screen too dark to see properly make it hard to judge overall as a success.  As a result, I am all in on the beautiful Train Dreams, a gorgeous Lubezki-esque take on the passage of time with a camera.  In a year where, in general, Cinematography was lacking (this is somehow going to be the weakest of my My Ballot lists in a few weeks), this is the one film that really embraced looking like a movie you'll remember forever.

Costume Design

1. Sinners

2. Hamnet

3. Marty Supreme

4. Avatar: Fire & Ash

5. Frankenstein

The Lowdown: It's possible I totally upend this entire list (looking like the only category I'll do that with), but for me it's all about the outfits specifically worn by Michael B. Jordan & Michael B. Jordan in the film.  Part of Sinners ability to inspire is that you kind of need to be horny for the dual MBJ's (this is a very sexy movie, with an early sex scene and Jack O'Connell clearly meant to be both figuratively and literally carnal), and the gorgeous teal-and-red combo that Ruth E. Carter brings here is better than the peasant period fare in Hamnet or the out-of-this-world third spin on Avatar (the craziest nomination of 2025).  I will note that the Mia Goth peacock outfit in this photo is so good it makes me forget that I was largely uninspired by the rest of Frankenstein.

Film Editing

1. One Battle After Another

2. Sinners

3. F1

4. Sentimental Value

5. Marty Supreme

The Lowdown: I mean, sometimes this category gets something a bit out-of-the-box (F1 was probably further along here than in the Best Picture race), but there are days I think "Oscar didn't try to think beyond his five favorite movies in the editing branch...should I even bother?"  I will note that One Battle After Another's win here comes from the way it unfolds tension-the bank robbery scenes, the harrowing conversation late in the film between Sean Penn & Chase Infiniti...it's something to behold.  Sinners might have had a better shot if it had had more consistent cinematography lighting, as well as had the good sense to cut that post-credits ending which feels nonsensical and totally unnecessary (but the building tension there is something else).

Makeup & Hairstyling

1. Kokuho

2. Sinners

3. Frankenstein

4. The Smashing Machine

5. The Ugly Stepsister

The Lowdown: Oscar has historically struggled with horror in his category even though it is very much the bread-and-butter of the genre, so it's weird to see a lineup where the majority of the nominees come from that world.  I am not so apathetic (I nominate horror more regularly for the My Ballot), and while I was impressed with the violent deformity of Sinners and the albino care of Frankenstein, my heart belongs to the remarkable beauty and elegant aging of Kokuho, giving us a first-hand at the look of kabuki theater.

Production Design

1. Sinners

2. Marty Supreme

3. One Battle After Another

4. Hamnet

5. Frankenstein

The Lowdown: We're going to give Sinners its final trophy here (genuinely curious how this compares to its count with Oscar-it ended up taking three statues from me), with the sets in this feeling so authentically barren.  There's so much personality and touches in the dancehalls and railway stations in Coogler's work, and yet they feel appropriately isolated-there's nowhere to run.  I'll note that most of this lineup is good, and this is Marty Supreme's worthiest nomination (I love the on-a-budget redesign of New York City that never feels like it's on a budget at all), but Sinners feels like it lives in the set the most, and adds the most to the story.

Visual Effects

1. Avatar: Fire & Ash

2. F1

3. Jurassic World Rebirth

4. Sinners

5. The Lost Bus

The Lowdown: Putting Avatar in a lineup of Visual Effects always feels like you're playing on cheat mode.  The latest round doesn't have the "how the hell did they do that?" impact that its predecessors had, but in an era where visual effects are increasingly sloppy, overdone, and clearly glossed over by darkened cinematography (looking at you, The Lost Bus), it has beauty and looks fantastic, and even against something as impressive as the technical virtuosity of F1, it's unbeatable.

Past Oscar Viewing Projects: 1931-32, 1948, 1957, 1972, 1981, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024

OVP: Black Panther (2018)

Film: Black Panther (2018)
Stars: Chadwick Boseman, Michael B. Jordan, Lupita Nyong'o, Danai Gurina, Martin Freeman, Daniel Kaluuya, Letitia Wright, Angela Bassett, Forest Whitaker, Andy Serkis
Director: Ryan Coogler
Oscar History: 7 Nominations/3 wins (Picture, Production Design*, Sound Editing, Sound Mixing, Score*, Song-"All the Stars," Costume Design*)
(Not So) Snap Judgment Ranking: 4/5 stars

Believe it or not, one of the movies that I have not reviewed yet from 2018 is the year's biggest film.  When I was sitting down to write this review, I realized too much of it was forgotten from the first time I caught it, and since I'm on vacation & in a serious "let's just watch another movie" fix right now, I felt the need to rewatch the picture before I got to reviewing it, particularly considering this is a review I will link quite often when we get to the 2018 OVP as it appears destined to be nominated (a lot).  Hence the "Not So" from above, though I will state that my opinions of the film haven't changed much since I caught the film initially.  Black Panther, while not breaking any new plot ground (this is in many ways similar to say an Iron Man or Captain America movie) makes up for its lack of originality with the script by having a compelling lead, a strong villain, and crafting a world unique onto its own in a way few other Marvel universe films have been able to achieve.

(Spoilers Ahead...though really, you read this blog and haven't seen Black Panther yet?) The movie picks up where Captain America 3 picks up (I'll be reviewing the two Ant-Man movies in the next week or so and will be addressing the odd "Chapter XX" aspects of the Marvel franchise then, but it's worth recalling that seeing these movies out-of-sequence has pretty severe drawbacks that I normally debit movies for not standing on their own, but perhaps I should stop as that's the way the world is now).  We have T'Challa (Boseman), the Black Panther, returning home to Wakanda after the death of his father to assume his mantle as the king.  We get an introduction relatively quickly to his life in this futuristic country, including his romance with longtime friend/ex-girlfriend Nakia (Nyong'o) and his brainy sister Shuri (Wright), who runs most of the technological advances in Wakanda.  The film quickly shows the parallels between T'Challa, who grew up in great wealth-and-prilege to his cousin N'Jadaka, who eventually goes by Killmonger (Jordan), who thanks to his exiled & dead father, grew up in the projects on Los Angeles, and wants revenge for the death of his father, as well as to arm black people around the world using Wakanda's technology as a weapon.  He challenges T'Challa to a fight to take the throne, a fight that he loses and nearly dies, but as this is a Marvel movie eventually recovers from, and fights Killmonger, killing him in combat but eventually conceding that Wakanda has to move out of the shadows and become a world leader, rather than remaining isolated.

The film tackles some heartier stuff than you usually see from a Marvel movie.  While occasionally the films go into ethical issues of privacy and terrorism, racism hasn't been central to past Marvel films because, well, there hasn't been a person-of-color lead in any of their pictures.  As a result, this film feels instantly fresher than some of the staler recent installments whose only outlets appear to make their characters more ridiculous (Guardians of the Galaxy 2, Thor Ragnarok).  Disney usually paints these sorts of arguments in broad strokes so as not to risk alienating audiences, but Coogler keeps in enough truth to his racial critiques (he's not throwing out ideas that aren't based in our own reality, rather than just Marvel's), to make the film feel modern and one of the more essential Marvel Universe pictures.

Boseman's lead character doesn't have enough differentiating qualities in my opinion, other than being proud, handsome, and noble; there's a risk with a superhero like this that they become Superman-impenetrable and too reliant on comic book cliche to be relatable to the audience.  However, the side characters are fresher & stronger than most Marvel movies of late, which helps elevate Black Panther.  Shuri is hilarious, and Wright plays her with a sense of actual teenage personality (she's the smartest girl in the room & she knows it), while Winston Duke's M'Baku is one of the more interesting non-main heroes/villains I've seen in a Marvel movie in a while.  His M'Baku is very similar to Killmonger (clearly worthy, but neglected thanks to his birth, and comes to the aid of T'Challa when he could so easily stay silent), and he has a wryness in his work ('we're vegetarians") that I'm excited to see come forward in a future picture.  And then there's Jordan, Coogler's most frequent muse whom he has gotten his strongest performances out of in the past (Fruitvale Station, Creed), and creates arguably Marvel's best villain to-date.  Think of that first scene with Jordan, where he takes a seemingly innocuous conversation with a white museum curator and turns it into both a moment to show his motives, but also to show the racial dynamic at play here.  While the focus in this scene is on an imaginary artifact from an imaginary country (Killmonger is trying to steal a vibranium weapon from this museum), he's name-checking actual African countries who were pillaged of this art by white colonialists, much like in real-life.  Jordan's performance is informed by important social issues involving race, and it's here that Coogler gets true depth added to his picture.  While the effects aren't always as bright as Ant-Man and the Wasp and the gravitas (or casting budget) doesn't approach that of Avengers 3, Black Panther stands apart because Coogler has a world-building vision in mind with crafting his picture, and it works because he roots it in some of the ugliness of our own existence.

No Globe? No Sag? No Problem!!!

Lesley Manville didn't get invited by SAG or
HFPA, but she was good enough for Oscar anyway.

There are a lot of things to say about this morning's SAG Awards.  For starters, there is no universe where Bohemian Rhapsody qualifies as a strong ensemble.  I didn't even like Crazy Rich Asians, but I understand the pull to nominate it here, but Bohemian Rhapsody is completely & totally Rami Malek, and the supporting cast is a bunch of one-dimensional, lackluster performances that are entirely in service to Malek.  Nearly as absurd is thinking that Emily Blunt is a supporting performance in A Quiet Place.  I enjoyed Blunt in this film, and am excited she's clearly headed to her first Oscar nomination, but no one would consider this a supporting performance if Mary Poppins Returns wasn't an option this year.  NO ONE.  Nicole Kidman has to be looking at this year right now and wishing that she'd gone supporting for Moulin Rouge! in 2001 because apparently she could have gotten dual nominations that year, no trouble (and yes, it's absurd to think of her as supporting in Moulin Rouge!, but is it any more absurd than Blunt or Chalamet or Ali?).

But that's a gripe for a different day, because today we get to do one of my all-time favorite traditions at TMROJ: our annual "No Globe/No Sag/No Problem!" article.  For those unfamiliar, every year we take a look at one of the more under-reported aspects of the awards season, that despite people pretending like anyone without a Globe or SAG nomination is DOA when it comes to Oscar, almost always there's at least 1-2 actors who randomly get nominated without either of these precursors.  Even in an era of group think with the Academy, we have not had a year where no one is a "new name" since 2006, which was largely due to the bizarre Best Supporting Actor race that season (nine different actors were cited in those categories that year between the Globes & SAG Awards).  For reference, in the past ten years these have been the "No Globes, No SAG" victors with AMPAS:

2017: Lesley Manville
2016: Michael Shannon
2015: Charlotte Rampling, Tom Hardy & Mark Ruffalo
2014: Bradley Cooper, Marion Cotillard, & Laura Dern
2013: Jonah Hill
2012: Quvenzhane Wallis, Emmanuelle Riva, & Jacki Weaver
2011: Gary Oldman & Max von Sydow
2010: Javier Bardem
2009: Maggie Gyllenhaal
2008: Michael Shannon

As you can see from the above, the "No Globe/No SAG" contenders usually fall into one of two camps.  Either they are previous nominees/winners who are making a late play for the Oscar nomination, as they're already established enough with the Academy that they don't need precursors to get their screener into the DVD player, or they are "halo" nominations from films that are doing well in the Best Picture or other acting races that sneak onto enough ballots to get a fourth or fifth place nomination.  It's worth noting that none of these actors usually end up winning (I believe the last time that someone pulled off an Oscar win without either precursor nomination was Marcia Gay Harden in 2000), but it's too soon to count the following ten contenders out of Oscar's big night:

10. Toni Collette (Hereditary)

For Her: She received raves for her work in Hereditary, which is a genre film but has the prestige-horror angle that Oscar sometimes goes for (look at Get Out last year), and she's a previous nominee.  Collette has been working the rooms hard for this citation, and is the sort of actor most everyone has worked with & acknowledges is one of the best, but her nominations count doesn't really speak to that fact.
Against Her: It's a rough year for Best Actress outsiders (there is a lot of consensus forming around the Close/Gaga/McCarthy/Blunt/Colman quintet), so she'd likely have to take out either McCarthy or Blunt for their nominations, a tall order considering the former is one of Hollywood's most bankable movie stars and the latter most agree is overdue for this nomination.  Plus, it's still genre and she might have needed more critical hosannas to land this spot.

9. Nicole Kidman (Boy Erased)

For Her: Kidman is consistently one of the best actors in cinema, and this is exactly the sort of role that gets you nominated (long-suffering, long-supporting mother).  Lucas Hedges did get a nomination for Best Actor at the Globes, and as a result this is probably more in the conversation with AMPAS than most critics have been giving it credit for, and Kidman's exactly the sort of matinee idol that gets nominated for work such as this.  If people ignore her on their Best Actress ballots for Destroyer, perhaps they'll want to include her here?
Against Her: She's looking at likely vote-splitting for her work in Destroyer, even if it's in a different category, and she's got The Favourite women taking up two of the nominations already.  Will Oscar have room for an actual supporting performance if they already have 40-60% of the category filled up with leads?

8. Steve Carell (Vice)

For Him: Carell seems to be pulling a play from Michael Shannon's book this year, where you just appear in as many films as possible and see what sticks.  He likely doesn't have to worry about vote-splitting with Beautiful Boy and Welcome to Marwen, but a trio of films could make the Academy give one of its occasional "they were in everything, so let's nominate them" citations.  Carell's got a showy role in a movie that feels like a Best Picture contender, which always helps-could this be a "halo" nomination of sorts?
Against Him: Best Supporting Actor seems to be solidifying (again, lead performers Timothee Chalamet & Mahershala Ali both make it harder for a turn like this to make the cut), and if anyone from Vice makes it, won't it be recent-winner Sam Rockwell, who got the Globe nomination?  It's hard to envision the Academy loving this movie so much that both of them get into the lineup.

7. Linda Cardellini (Green Book)

For Her: I can't decide if this should be #1 or if I'm crazy for including it on this list at all.  Cardellini's role in Green Book is a trifle, nothing really impressive about it and lacking even a really juicy scene that might get her into the conversation in a different year.  But she's also playing the supportive wife (one of Oscar's favorite roles) in a probable Best Picture contender, and romancing a surefire Best Actor nominee in her film.  Is this a Jacki Weaver-type nomination?
Against Her: She's not as famous as most of the people on this list (though she's worked in Hollywood a while), which makes standing out more of a challenge, and it's a pittance of a part.  With category fraud so rampant this year, how will there be room for a genuine supporting part to sneak in like Cardellini's?

6. Ryan Gosling (First Man)

For Him: I get the feeling that First Man is going to do much better with Oscar than it had any hopes to do with some of the precursor awards, considering it has very showy tech attributes that go a lot further with AMPAS.  That should help Gosling, a two-time nominee who has never won, who gives an introverted performance here that has gained a lot of critical praise.  If AMPAS wants subtle, he's a pretty strong option.
Against Him: If John David Washington is genuinely getting his nomination, that leaves very little room for a Best Actor nominee to sneak in, as Gosling would have to take out Viggo, Bale, Malek, or Cooper, none of which feel movable at this point.  Oscar only occasionally goes for subtle-this might be too subdued for them, and the SAG miss for Claire Foy makes me wonder if no one is feeling this work this year.

5. Yalitza Aparicio (Roma)

For Her: The work in this film is showy and impressive, and you can't help but connect with her Cleo.  For actor-fans of Cuaron's film (there will be a lot of them-expect this to be a Best Picture nominee), they've got no other place to show their enthusiasm other than Aparicio, and Globe/SAG are more into stars than Oscar is (because you become a star with that Oscar nomination).
Against Her: It's a director's film, and while the cast is an undersung hero of why it works, the combination of it being a visual rather than actorly showcase and that it's in a foreign language (already a hiccup with Oscar), means that Aparicio is going to need Oscar to love it a lot in order to get her into the race.

4. Julia Roberts (Ben is Back)

For Her: She's one of the country's most recognizable movie stars, and as a result can make a late play in a way that few others would be able to pull off (if Clint Eastwood's work in The Mule is good enough, he should be on this list as he's in the same boat, but the lack of a critic's screening makes me think that is entirely a commercial play).  Ben is Back is getting great notices for Roberts, and it hasn't opened yet so it could be a strong commercial play (plus she'll be on red carpets already thanks to Homecoming).  While there are a lot of Globe/SAG-nominated performers who could break up the quintet I've listed above, my gut says that if one of those names isn't on the list, it'll be Roberts that comes out of nowhere & scores for her work here.
Against Her: She needs strong box office & she needs to oust someone who is already a big part of the conversation.  She can do that, but Roberts has never pulled off an Oscar citation without serious Globes support heading into the night.

3. Michael B. Jordan (Black Panther)

For Him: He's a superstar actor (he must be getting a nomination at some point, right?), who has the most obvious, nominatable performance in a film that is a serious threat to win Best Picture.  It's relatively rare for a Best Picture winner not to have at least one nominated performance, and villains do well in Best Supporting Actor.
Against Him: The Return of the King was a much surer Best Picture victor, and it missed completely for nominations.  It's entirely possible that the Academy will skip this considering they don't go for comic book performances (Heath Ledger being the obvious exception), and he's been skipped over before for more obvious work.  Maybe they just aren't fans?

2. Ethan Hawke (First Reformed)

For Him: Hawke's work here is remarkable, a tour-de-force triumph that will be catnip to anyone who sees it.  Oscar loves very physical performances, and ones with lots of great monologues.  It's easy to see him making it on #1 ballots if enough people catch the film...
Against Him: ...but will they?  Schrader is probably looking at a Best Screenplay nomination here if Hawke can also pull it off, but this is a rough movie that people are going to have to start catching around the holidays, and it was released months ago, so the buzz is going to be tough to maintain as Vice and Bohemian Rhapsody continue to be a big presence in theaters.  Might it just be one of those performances the Oscars wish they'd nominated after-the-fact?

1. Michelle Yeoh (Crazy Rich Asians)

For Her: Everything.  She's a well-known actor (check) who is appearing in a showcase supporting role (check) in a populist film that everyone saw (check) that is increasingly likely to win a Best Picture nomination (check).  Plus, in an Academy increasingly focused on diversity with their acting nominations, Yeoh's an easy way to honor one of the most important Asian women in cinema.  I had toyed with putting Hawke or Jordan at #1, but the SAG nomination for Best Ensemble combined with the dual nominations at the Globes makes me think this is probably going to happen.  Also, Supporting Actress is the only race where the fifth slot doesn't have a clear favorite so she has room (Adams, King, Stone, & Weisz make it, but Foy is slipping, Robbie is out-of-nowhere, and Blunt will get in for Mary Poppins instead).
Against Her: It's a relatively slight role, and it's entirely possible that the Academy (allergic to comedies) won't love CRA the way the general public did.  But I think this is happening-it's the only one on this list that I'd have listed on my official Top 5 predictions at this point.

No Globe, No SAG...No Problem?

Last year it was Bradley Cooper-who can get in
without the love in 2015?

This article has become a bit of an annual tradition here at The Many Rantings of John, and since I'm still relatively new compared to some other decade-old blogs on the internet, I feel like I have to carry out the few traditions that I have going.  Every year in the past ten, seemingly without fail with the strange exception of 2006 (which was largely due to the bizarrely robust nature of the Supporting Actor race that year where nine different actors were cited by the Globes and SAG Awards), at least one actor has managed to be nominated for an Academy Award without having previously been cited by the Globes or the SAG Awards for the same performance.  Take a look below:

2014: Bradley Cooper, Marion Cotillard, and Laura Dern

2013: Jonah Hill

2012: Quvenzhane Wallis, Emannuelle Riva, and Jacki Weaver

2011: Gary Oldman and Max von Sydow

2010: Javier Bardem

2009: Maggie Gyllenhaal

2008: Michael Shannon

2007: Laura Linney and Tommy Lee Jones

2006: Zero (let's pay attention people-we've already been over this)

2005: William Hurt

As is evidenced here, when you've missed at both awards it helps a ton to be in a film that people are actually watching.  Of these fifteen actors, six of them were in films that would also be nominated for Best Picture, and all but Jones and Cotillard had their films nominated in other categories.  It also helps to be a major player at the Academy Awards-only Wallis and Riva had never been nominated before, and they were nominated for leading a Best Picture, so it's quite unlikely at this point in the race for a nominee to pop up out-of-nowhere for a film people aren't discussing elsewhere.  With that being said, I've gone through and looked at the ten actors who haven't received any of the major precursor love yet, and ranked them by who is the most likely to be nominated for an Oscar anyway.  This year was particularly hard because of the erratic nature of the race, especially when you consider so many unexpected names like Bryan Cranston and Sarah Silverman ended up showing up at the awards prior to nominations, leaving a few contenders that were widely expected in the dust to new theoretical nominees.  Share your thoughts on this list and who was left out (and especially who you think will be left in) below in the comments!

Honorable Mention: I would be remiss if I didn't point out that the likes of Tom Hanks, Blythe Danner, Ian McKellen, Kristen Stewart, and Benicio del Toro would have normally made the cutoff, but I decided to go with ten per tradition-usually I'm scrounging for contenders, but this year it was a plethora of near-misses so hopefully we get some genuine surprises come Oscar morning.

10. Elizabeth Banks (Love and Mercy)

For Her: It's hard to deny Banks made a huge splash this year onscreen.  After all, her directorial debut in Pitch Perfect 2 went off extremely well, making a mountain of cash (even if the film itself was never quite as beloved as the fans of the first were hoping), while also getting rave reviews for her work in Love and Mercy.  With Paul Dano scooping up a number of awards, it's not like the screener isn't available to Academy members, and though she's never been nominated before you can sort of get the sense that she's about ready for some sort of industry acknowledgement.

Against Her: If they're seeing the movie and voting for Dano, why isn't she scoring at the Globes in particular?  Dano made it, and she's a big enough celebrity for HFPA, so where's the love for her?  Is it simply that they're responding to Dano rather than Banks, in which case she's a have-not in this situation?  The film is really only gunning for Supporting Actor based on precursors, and that's somewhat tenuous as can be evidenced by a film like Rush (where the Academy skips out if you aren't a player elsewhere).

9. Carey Mulligan (Suffragette)

For Her: She's a former nominee who spent most of the year at the top of Oscar prediction charts.  Suffragette is a movie that is clearly relevant and I suspect it's one the Academy would like to put a "me too!" on agreeing with at this point.  Period dramas are catnip for the Best Actress category, and she has to do a lot of deglam.  Plus, doesn't it feel like Carey Mulligan should have a second Oscar nomination by now?

Against Her: No one is talking about this film anymore, and it's mostly out of "really, she's not gaining traction?!?" that I kept this on here as it makes so much sense on paper, even though in reality Mulligan's opportunity seems to have all-but-disappeared.  That being said, I thought the same thing about Tommy Lee Jones in 2007 and he still won a nod so it's not totally out-of-the-question.

8. Michael Caine (Youth)

For Him: He's Michael Caine, beloved actor and Academy Award favorite.  Were he to be nominated, he would become the first actor ever to be nominated in six different decades, and he's a major movie star that has long been hungry for a lead Oscar and is willing to schmooze for it.  Caine's also in a movie that, if they see it, seems like the older Academy members would love as it's about, well, older artists and entertainers.  I suspect that those completely downgrading Caine in their predictions are missing what could be a great surprise opportunity.

Against Him: Since the Globes clearly saw the film (they voted for Fonda in the same movie), why not Caine?  They even went with him for The Quiet American, so you know they're fans.  Youth itself has gained almost no traction this season and may be too out-there for the voting community's tastes.  I think this could happen, but I have no evidence of it so one wonders if Caine will continue to have to find a shot at that sixth decade.

7. Michael B. Jordan (Creed)

For Him: He's a young up-and-coming actor, arguably the best American male actor under thirty in my opinion, and Creed continues to be a great word-of-mouth hit that could score with the Academy as it feels in their wheelhouse.  Let's not forget Bradley Cooper in American Sniper in all of this, as Clint Eastwood's picture went from being a non-entity in most of the precursor awards to being a huge deal at the Oscars, which could well be what's about to happen to Creed (though Stallone did score at the Globes).

Against Him: Jordan's not Bradley Cooper (who had two previous Oscar citations to rely upon), and this film isn't directed by Clint Eastwood-it's a boxing sequel.  Perhaps the Academy can't quite get over that hump (or they just don't love it) and are content to go with Stallone as their way of giving the film recognition.

6. Charlize Theron (Mad Max: Fury Road)

For Her: This is my annual, one-time-only mention of the BFCA Awards, as one might question why I don't include them on this list since they are a televised precursor and of course Theron got nominated there.  I don't mention them for two reasons: one, they have six nominees and that's cheating, and two (and much more importantly) they are far more intent on predicting the Oscars than actually rewarding what they like (compare Rotten Tomatoes scores with who actually gets nominated for a reference point), and that's not an awards show, it's just a Vegas betting board so I shall not mention them again for a year until I write this article again.  That being said, the nomination for Theron has to indicate something, and she's an Oscar-winning lead in a film that increasingly looks likely to be a Best Picture nominee-that's usually a recipe for a surprise nomination.

Against Her: It'd be a nearly unprecedented nomination (with the very glaring exception of Sigourney Weaver in Aliens), and can Theron actually do this without being a huge presence on the campaign trail?  It seems a bit telling that the Globes didn't go for this at all as it seems more in their recent wheelhouse (think Uma Thurman in Kill Bill) but there's clearly at least one very open slot in Best Actress so I wouldn't totally eye-roll here.

4 & 5. Mark Ruffalo and Michael Keaton (Spotlight)

For Them: I combined these two for two reasons, one of which is that they are both obvious contenders on-paper.  Both men are recent (like, last year recent) nominees who didn't win, which the Academy sometimes feels the urge to correct if you make enough good movies back-to-back, and they are headlining a major Best Picture contender, the only film to score nominations for Best Cast AND Best Drama Picture at the Globes.  That has to matter, and you can imagine these two being on a lot of ballots.

Against Them: The second reason I put them together, though is that they're clearly costing the other one their nomination.  With Keaton going supporting instead of lead (not the worst decision, but potentially costly for Ruffalo who has the more "big moment" role) that means that two men whom the Academy feel are "due" are competing for the same turf.  No film has been nominated for two supporting actors since 1991's Bugsy for a reason-it's because Academy members don't like voting for the same film twice for two male actors.  That's clearly causing some issues for these two as they are competing in a race that is starting to coalesce around other individuals.

3. Tom Hardy (The Revenant)

For Him: He's had an amazing year.  With dual roles in Legend, a title role in Mad Max, and now a significant role opposite the film that's probably going to win Leo his Oscar in The Revenant, Hardy has to be considered for this performance, which also is clear Oscar bait from the trailers (he plays the chief antagonist, a classic Supporting Actor part).  Hardy's been a rising star for years now, and if a year like this doesn't bring him into the fold, I don't know what will.

Against Him: "Why didn't he score at the Globes" is a recurring phrase this year (mostly because I have no idea WHAT was happening at the SAG Awards), but Hardy is hot and could have been an easy arm-candy presenter to Jennifer Lopez at the ceremony so one wonders what the hold-up was there.  Is it a case where he's just not compelling in "the Leo Show?"  He might also be too pretty for Oscar (they like to make the sexy guys wait until the wrinkles come).

2. Joan Allen (Room)

For Her: On-paper, almost everything.  If I was looking at the recipe above, I'd need someone headlining a likely Best Picture nominee (check), someone in a supporting role when everyone is gushing about a lead performance (check and check), and someone whom the Academy has shown a fondness for before but hasn't really been nominated in a little while (and three times-nominated check).  Allen is the sort of performer like Tommy Lee Jones or William Hurt whom the Academy might just want to say "we remember you!" to and her role in Room, while not particularly meaty, isn't without its big moments, and seems more Oscar-friendly than Globes or SAG Awards.

Against Her: It's not a particularly meaty role.  That hasn't stopped people in the past (hello, Jacki Weaver), but with so many lead performers making a play for this category it's difficult to tell whether or not there will be a room for a performance the size of Allen's against the likes of Mara and Vikander.

1. Charlotte Rampling (45 Years)

For Her: She's an acting god who did score a few critical citations so far, and it's worth noting scored a BFCA nomination when Theron was clearly the sixth place finisher in that list.  45 Years has gotten rave reviews, and screeners are a pretty good answer to people saying she won't make it because the film is small (which becomes less of an argument as years go by and the Academy doesn't reflect the Box Office like it used to do).  Rampling feels like she should get a nomination at least once in her career-this could be the moment.

Against Her: She's the exact opposite of Allen in predictive ways, though, and a nomination would be kind of unprecedented in recent memory as she's not in a film that will be nominated somewhere else, she's not a former nominee or winner, and no one thinks of this as a Best Picture contender.  Even Marion Cotillard, who seems most indicative for Rampling, was an Oscar winner when she came out of the blue for Two Days, One Night last year.  Still, records break every year, and I think Rampling is probably the one to do it in 2015.

OVP: Creed (2015)

Film: Creed (2015)
Stars: Michael B. Jordan, Sylvester Stallone, Tessa Thompson, Phylicia Rashad, Tony Bellow
Director: Ryan Coogler
Oscar History: 1 nomination (Best Supporting Actor-Sylvester Stallone)
Snap Judgment Ranking: 3/5 stars

If you had told me at the beginning of the year that I'd be paying my hard-earned money, excitedly, to go and see yet another Rocky sequel, I would have laughed you into the next room.  Like almost every person who had cable in the 1990's (or went to the movies in the 70's/80's), I have seen multiple Rocky movies, catching them back when they used to be near-constant marathons on TNT, and we all knew the formula, frequently trading on the original Rocky, a major movie that won Best Picture in a field that included Taxi Driver and Network, and then went on to make Sylvester Stallone, "Adrian!" and those 72-steps at the Philadelphia Museum of Art all movie lore.  And yet, Creed, after years of the franchise (which, like its star, became a bit of a pop culture punching bag in the years that followed) getting lukewarm reviews about how the myriad sequels have shaken the allure of the first film, has reignited the franchise in a way no one else could have suspected.  In a year where long-running series like Mad Max, Jurassic World, and Star Wars all made it back to the screen, perhaps no movie quite shocked this moviegoer quite like the kinetic Creed, an electrically fast-paced movie that features memorable long-take cinematography and proof that boxing movies, when done well, can still fire up a crowd.

(Spoilers Ahead) I think the thing that instantly started to set apart Creed was the way that the film, while obviously trying to find a place opposite that of Rocky, wasn't afraid to show the impact of Rocky and the ways that boxing has changed in the decades since.  Here we see both Apollo Creed and Rocky Balboa not as characters whose heads we're trying to get inside, but instead as immortals in the world of boxing.  There's a scene late in the movie where Adonis Creed's (Jordan) opponent "Pretty" Ricky Conlin (Bellow) is fighting with Creed at a boxing press conference, and he points out that Creed is coasting on his name, whereas the man sitting next to him (Stallone as Balboa) is the "true" fighter on their team.  Creed, of course, eventually proves to Conlin that he can in fact fight, and that he isn't just a name, but it shows how immortal Balboa has become through the years-even his opponents can't help but respect him.

This is true in many ways of Stallone himself, who has started to gain Oscar buzz for this role, a career-capper after a few misfires in trying to cap his role in the Rocky sequels.  It's quite frankly hard to tell at times whether or not what Stallone is doing is truly great acting, or whether he's able to make decades of nostalgia and Hollywood iconography trick the audience into thinking that's what he's doing, but he's mesmerizing reprising his most legendary role.  Every scene, quite frankly, he seems to be in command of the screen, a magnetic force to be reckoned with; there's a naturalism here, as Stallone knows this character's every heartbeat, but with his age and our knowledge now of the effects of boxing on the brain and development, we see him in a different light as he speaks in short, gruff sentences, and his victories become us cheering on a childhood friend.  Michael B. Jordan, possibly the most exciting male American actor under thirty currently working, is also quite good and finds a wonderful balance with Creed (born in foster care, but eventually raised in intense privilege, his weird combination of entitlement and proving himself is hard act to create, but he nails it), also worth the price of admission but Stallone is the one you're begging to see.  When they finally show the "Rocky Steps" you're realizing what you're seeing is one of the best entries in this series.

The movie, of course, isn't without its faults.  The plot is intensely predictable, even the eventual outcome where Creed gets a technical loss like Rocky did in the first movie, setting up a theoretical sequel, and the film has no idea what to do with its female characters.  Talia Shire won an Academy Award nomination for the first film, but Phylicia Rashad and Tessa Thompson will just have to settle for another line in their SAG cards and hopes that they can command a bigger payday in the sequel, as they are mere window dressing, which is disappointing as a lot of care actually went into creating Thompson's character (whose hearing loss and burgeoning music career made for their own interesting subplot until the entire film dismissed it).  Plus, there's no new ground being tread here that the original film didn't already cross.  Still, the editing and direction are sharp, and the two leading men more than live up to the hype surrounding the performance.  This is a fight you should know you'll be in for a good battle, and you won't have to shell out $200 to HBO for the privilege.

Those are my thoughts-how about yours?  Were you a fan of Creed, or is this the franchise that will never die?  Do you think Stallone can make Oscar history?  And for that matter, can Jordan finally break into the AMPAS club?  Share your thoughts in the comments!

2015 Predictions

It's time to make New Year's predictions for 2015!  Last year, I gave this a shot and my results were questionable at best (I got 6/20 on the political predictions and 5/14 on entertainment...possibly 7 depending on the Chastain and Pixar ones).  Despite these terrible prediction ratios, I'm going to give it a shot again this year, though since it's an off-political year, I'm giving the twenty predictions to entertainment.

20 Predictions About Entertainment

1. Seth Rogen and James Franco receive a standing ovation when they present an award at either the Globes or Oscars.

2. Jennifer Aniston takes at least one major Best Actress prize from Julianne Moore, though not the Oscar.

3. Avengers: Age of Ultron ends up making more money than Star Wars, but Star Wars gets a better Rotten Tomatoes score and more Oscar nominations.

4. Viola Davis gets an Emmy nomination while Kerry Washington does not, receiving calls of racism since two black women aren't nominated in the same category despite history indicating they probably would normally be.

5. At least one major celebrity will be outed by a phone hacking.

6. Kelli O'Hara finally takes home a Tony Award for her role as Anna in yet another King & I revival.

7. Kristin Chenoweth ends her unusual Tony Award nomination drought when she is nominated for On the Twentieth Century.

8. The end of Glee results in a number of articles about how the show never lived up to its pilot, despite it being relatively strong its first couple of seasons.

9. Ansel Elgort ends up signing a major leading role with a prestige director, as well as a superhero role in an upcoming comic book film.

10. Stephen Colbert's turn on the Late Show will receive mixed reviews at best.

11. Spy with Melissa McCarthy ends up being another massive hit, causing her to FINALLY get her first Golden Globe nomination.

12. Adele releases her third album and it becomes the highest-grossing record of the year, despite most complaining it isn't as good as 21.

13. Rush Limbaugh will say something truly despicable about Michael B. Jordan playing the Human Torch in Fantastic Four, and no one on the Right will call him on it.

14. Neil Patrick Harris will sing at least two musical numbers during the Oscars, the latter involving rapping and "edge" and yet neither will land properly.

15. Shane Dawson will quit YouTube as an onscreen personality.

16. The Duke and Duchess of Cambridge will give birth to a baby girl, and Elizabeth will be one of her names, though not necessarily the first.

17. In retaliation, Kim Kardashian will become pregnant yet again.  Her sister Khloe will become one of the biggest tabloid cover models of the year when she ends up in an equally high-profile relationship with another celebrity, causing accusations of a feud between the two.

18. Justin Bieber will be arrested.  Possibly so will Lindsay Lohan, but no one will care.

19. One Direction break-up rumors will fly when the band members start recording duets as solo artists, though they'll stick it out through the year.

20. Looking will not get strong enough ratings, resulting in it being cancelled during its second season, which will cause at least two rants on this blog.

15 Predictions About Politics

1. President Obama's approval ratings recover in the face of an improving economy, though they never steadily remain above 50%.

2. Hillary Clinton, Jeb Bush, Rand Paul, and Chris Christie all declare their intentions to run for president.

3. Elizabeth Warren, Joe Biden, and Paul Ryan do not.

4. Rep. Tammy Duckworth becomes the Senate nominee for the seat in Illinois.

5. Sec. Alison Lundergan Grimes watches her once promising career go up in flames as she loses reelection in Kentucky.

6. The Democrats also lose the governor's race in Kentucky without picking up Mississippi or Louisiana, marking their lowest count of governor's mansions in 17 years.

7. Gov. Peter Shumlin, despite a major push by Republicans, will win another term in Vermont despite a weird aberration in the voting law that has left his race undecided months after the November elections despite him winning the popular vote.

8. Sen. Barbara Boxer's retirement will cause major headaches for Democrats in California, as a number of ambitious Democrats enter the primary, causing worries of two Republicans advancing to the runoff.

9. Former Senator Russ Feingold will run for his old seat in the U.S. Senate, setting up a marquee matchup against the man who defeated him in 2010, Ron Johnson.  Other former senators such as Mark Begich and Kay Hagan will be courted to run for seats in their states, but will ultimately decide against it.

10. No member of Congress will switch parties.

11. President Obama will end up signing the Keystone Pipeline into law, but not without at least one major concession from the Congress (likely on immigration).

12. Bernie Sanders decides to run for president under a third-party banner, potentially causing him to be dumped from the Democratic caucus of the Senate and causing major comparisons to Ralph Nader.

13. Harry Reid and John McCain both end up running for reelection, with McCain getting a very strong third party challenge from the right.  As a result, expect maverick McCain to disappear into arch-conservative McCain for a while.

14. George W. Bush hits the campaign trail in the South for his brother Jeb, ending both his moratorium on campaigning and his silence on the Obama administration.

15. The NRSC and NRCC go back to continually out-earning the DSCC and DCCC.

And those are my predictions for this upcoming year-what about yours?  What are you expecting to see in the year ahead?