No Globe? No SAG? No Problem!

This morning we saw the SAG nominations, and with the Globes held this weekend, that means we get to write one of my favorite recurring annual articles on the blog-our annual look at the few performers whose dreams of Oscar glory have seemingly been dashed by not getting in with either of these high-profile precursors...who still could be in for a wonderful night in a few weeks at the Dolby Theater.  Every year since 2006, at least one actor has gotten a nomination for an Oscar without being cited by either the Globes or the SAG Awards, with a much larger number in the past two years:

2022: Brian Tyree Henry, Andrea Riseborough, Judd Hirsch, & Paul Mescal

2021: Penelope Cruz, Jesse Plemons, JK Simmons, Judi Dench, & Jessie Buckley

2020: Paul Raci & LaKeith Stanfield

2019: Florence Pugh

2018: Marina de Tavira & Yalitza Aparicio

2017: Lesley Manville

2016: Michael Shannon

2015: Charlotte Rampling, Tom Hardy, & Mark Ruffalo

2014: Bradley Cooper, Marion Cotillard, & Laura Dern

2013: Jonah Hill

As a general rule, the best way to get another nomination is to get in as a result of your film having heat for either Best Picture or another acting race.  Last year, we saw this with someone like Judd Hirsch, who was starring in a film that was on-track for Best Picture & Actress, and then carried him along with the show.  Last year saw a disproportionately large number of people (Andrea Riseborough, Paul Mescal, & Brian Tyree Henry) who were their films only Oscar nod, which does happen, but this is generally hard to pull off, especially in the ten-wide Best Picture era.  Generally, the new name is someone from a Best Picture nominee that Oscar liked a little bit more than the rest of the season.

I say each year that I'm worried this trend won't continue, but this year I'm especially nervous because of the expansion of the Golden Globes.  This is the first year that the Globes had six nominees for each of the acting races, rather than five.  You can best see how this will hurt this stat by looking at Best Actor in a Drama.   This featured three Oscar frontrunners (Cillian Murphy, Bradley Cooper, & Leonardo DiCaprio) along with three "on the bubble" nominees (Colman Domingo, Andrew Scott, & Barry Keoghan).  In a normal year, one of those "on the bubble" nominees wouldn't have gotten mentioned, and if it had been Scott/Keoghan, would've been in my Top 5 here given the heat off of those films peaking at the right time (Domingo got a Globe nod).  This year, none of them are in the Top 10, and so I had to scrounge a little bit to get a plausible Top 10.  Still, a 14-year streak is going to be tough to beat-one of these names (#1 being the most likely) probably gets on Oscar's radar in two weeks.

Honorable Mention: I'm just going to list a few names that need to be mentioned.  I am still catching up on a few contenders (hence why own personal Top 10 lists haven't been revealed yet), so a couple of performances that I haven't seen include Erika Alexander (American Fiction), Christian Friedel (The Zone of Interest), Aunjanue Ellis (Origin), Jamie Bell (All of Us Strangers), & Juliette Binoche (The Taste of Things).  These all have their champions (and Binoche & Ellis are former nominees, which helps), but without seeing them I don't know if they make sense or even how substantial their roles are...so I'm just naming them for posterity.  Florence Pugh (Oppenheimer), Jesse Plemons (Killers of the Flower Moon), John Magaro (Past Lives), & Taraji P. Henson (The Color Purple) have large supporting parts in Best Picture contenders, but they've been ignored all season, and save for Magaro, they're all former nominees so if they were going to get in...why not get mentioned by SAG or the Globes?  Lastly, I do wonder if AMPAS will like Ferrari more than most, and Penelope Cruz's surprise SAG inclusion means that Adam Driver (a two-time nominee) deserves a mention in this list even if this is probably a miss for him.

10. Rachel McAdams (Are You There God? It's Me, Margaret.)

For Her: McAdams has received some of the best reviews of her career for this Judy Blume adaptation, and there's a lot of passion surrounding her performance, despite it coming out in April.  She even won a surprise inclusion from the Los Angeles Film Critics Association.  Sometimes underestimated when it comes to what screeners get the "Play" button pressed is whether you can watch a movie with your kids-Margaret is far more "let's all sit in front of the couch" friendly than May December or Saltburn.  She's also a former Oscar nominee-AMPAS has liked her before.

Against Her: The film has no shot in any other categories and it's a coming-of-age movie about a girl getting her period that was released almost a year ago.  No matter how good McAdams may be, that was always going to be hard to get past, especially without some help from something like SAG which is more the audience for this style of film.

9. Paul Mescal (All of Us Strangers)

For Him: I mean, he did it last year.  Mescal was able to take a small, family drama last year and ride it to the Oscars, what's to stop him this year?  All of Us Strangers is not necessarily in the Best Picture running, but it does have the kind of heat & interest that would make it a surprise inclusion in the 9th or 10th spot if heat for something that feels more like a "required" nominee (like Maestro) that no one really loves doesn't get in.  Additionally, everyone who sees the movie loves Andrew Scott, which makes him a stealth contender for the competitive fifth Best Actor slot.

Against Him: I haven't seen the movie, but literally any internal competition from Jamie Bell is going to cost him this, as it's already a small film...will Bell split his support?  Additionally, this is a film that Oscar voters aren't required to see-will they get to it, or is it just a move they're still saying "I've heard that's good" about come nominations time.

8. Sandra Huller (The Zone of Interest)

For Her: She's having a helluva a year.  Huller didn't get in with SAG, but she managed a Globe nomination for her work in Anatomy of a Fall, which I think will score her her first Oscar nomination in Best Actress.  Weirdly, she's also an option in supporting for Zone of Interest, which like All of Us Strangers is in the hunt for 9th or 10th in the Best Picture field.  Huller's supposedly good, and a significant part here.  Could she get double the love?

Against Her: Unlike a lot of past double nominees (like Scarlett Johansson or Al Pacino) she's not super famous headed into the night, and usually you come armed with all of the precursors if you're going to be cited twice.  It's possible, but I'm assuming on her first go-around AMPAS will think Best Actress is enough.

7. Zac Efron (The Iron Claw)

For Him: Efron checks two of the Academy's favorite boxes.  One, he's a matinee idol transforming himself physically for a role, and two, he's in the middle of something of a comeback, giving his most lauded performance to date after years as a teen idol.  A family drama and a biopic, this is in Oscar's wheelhouse (Mickey Rourke got nominated for a similar film a few years back), and it has a lot of fans.

Against Him: Efron is the sort of contender that the Globes normally would've gone for (not sure if that's because we're in a post-HFPA world or not, but a celebrity like him normally would've been able to sneak in over Andrew Scott).  Will enough people see it...and will enough respond given Efron's otherwise shallow acting resumé (unlike Rourke, Efron didn't spend a decade giving critically-acclaimed, edgy performances before Oscar noticed).

6. Ben Affleck (Air)

For Him: Affleck is a strange beast in Hollywood-someone well-loved by the Academy behind-the scenes (he has Oscars for writing and producing, and directed a Best Picture winner), but who has never been nominated for an Oscar for acting despite matinee idol good looks and appearing in many of his movies.  His latest directorial effort, Air, is a film I think is going to get into Best Picture (I haven't written my final nominations yet, but it'll be on there as my surprise guess unless something bizarre happens with the PGA/DGA/BAFTA citations), and since no film has only gotten a Best Picture nomination since 1943, if it gets in one place, it'll probably get in another.

Against Him: I think that most agree that Affleck, unlike his buddy Matt Damon, is better behind-the-scenes than in front of the camera, and while this is a showy part, there's a more traditional role for the Academy to cite in Air if they feel so inclined.  Also, Best Supporting Actor is already bursting at the seams without adding someone like Affleck into the conversation.

5. Claire Foy (All of Us Strangers)

For Her: Foy is one of the most recognized actresses on television, she's British (the Academy loves British actresses), and she works in a lot of prestige films that have gotten on Oscar's radar (First Man, Women Talking).  Her work in All of Us Strangers as the main character's mother isn't work I've seen yet, but from what I've heard it's strong, scene-stealing stuff, and if the film is peaking at the right time (which it is), like Paul Mescal, I could see her being in the running.

Against Her: At this point, Foy has been turned down by the Academy twice.  Similar to Emily Blunt (who after two decades is finally going to get an Oscar nomination in two weeks for Oppenheimer after basically begging the Academy every year for it), it's possible she's just not their cup of tea?  If she can't get in for a Best Picture nominee, why this?

4. Viola Davis (Air)

For Her: As I mentioned above, there's a more traditional option in Air if AMPAS wants to nominate it for an acting trophy than Ben Affleck, and that's Oscar-winning actress Viola Davis.  Davis gets a showy supporting part as Michael Jordan's mother, plays well off of Matt Damon (whom, it is worth noting, did get a Golden Globe nomination for this film), and we know Oscar loves her.  They also might feel they owe her after she missed last year for an expected nomination for The Woman King.

Against Her: She still has a trophy, so it's not like ignoring her for The Woman King was a major crime.  More importantly, it's possible I'm overestimating Air's strength.  It came out last spring, and hasn't shown up on a lot of year-end lists.  Maybe it's just one of those movies people liked, but doesn't score with Oscar, in which case Davis is a non-entity.

3. Matt Damon (Oppenheimer)

For Him: Our top three contenders I'm going all in on movies that all of the Academy's acting branch will have seen by the time the nominations start, but feature three performers with prominent roles in those films that haven't gotten mention yet.  Damon's lack of a nomination has perplexed me all season.  In a sea of options, he and Downey are the only two supporting actors who are clearly prominent enough in terms of screen-time to stand out from the crowd.  Given his personal popularity (as well as love for Oppenheimer), why isn't he showing up?

Against Him: Damon's problem is twofold.  One, his internal competition, particularly from Robert Downey, Jr. who is going to win this category with Oscar, means that spreading-the-wealth feels like the correct choice (Oppenheimer isn't hurting for love).  Second, the supporting actor race is stacked this year, the strongest contenders and the most quality options of any of the four acting races.  This would feel like a "weak field" filler nomination, not needed for 2023.

2. Dominic Sessa (The Holdovers)

For Him: The Holdovers is an acting trio, one that features two people who are surefire nominees (and potential winners): Da'Vine Joy Randolph & Paul Giamatti.  Their counterpart Dominic Sessa, though, has gotten plenty of good notices for his screen debut in The Holdovers.  It's a lead performance that is being passed off as supporting (that always helps), and if you're a fan of the movie, you might just want to put down one actor for each category.

Against Him: He's so young.  This is his first film, and in a category where they tend to nominate longtime veterans (like Willem Dafoe or Mark Ruffalo, both also on the edge for this category), they might want to make him pay his dues.  Plus, given The Holdovers didn't get into Best SAG Cast (usually a prerequisite for a Best Picture nomination), this might be a movie that voters more like than love.

1. America Ferrera (Barbie)

For Her: Everyone loves Barbie.  Even if you aren't a fan of the movie itself, in an industry town that had a lower-than-expected box office last yeaer, everyone knows that Barbie is a movie they should be grateful for.  Ferrera is a longtime character actress who weirdly (despite the large female cast) will be the only Supporting Actress option from the film.  People love her monologue scene in the picture, and she's been pushing the movie hard.  These are all things that usually add up to a surprise inclusion.

Against Her: Unless Jodie Foster or Danielle Brooks fall (both are on shaky, but likely, ground), this is really a fifth slot play against Viola Davis (Air), Julianne Moore (May December), Penelope Cruz (Ferrari), and Rosamund Pike (Saltburn).  None of those are Best Picture nominee locks like Barbie is, but unlike Ferrera, they're all former Oscar nominees/winners who come armed with precursors (save Davis).  Still...I think I'll probably guess Ferrera because her math feels really good in this scenario.

OVP: Actor (2022)

OVP: Best Actor (2022)

The Nominees Were...

Austin Butler, Elvis

Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin

Brendan Fraser, The Whale

Paul Mescal, Aftersun

Bill Nighy, Living

My Thoughts: For the first time since 1934, all of the Best Actor nominees were first-time nominees.  This is a huge deal because this is the category that enjoys repeating on itself, and usually requires a previous loss in order to take the win.  This means that, while we’ll continue going forward as often as we can (several of these men could get nominated again), this is the only time we’re guaranteed to discuss these five actors in the Best Actor race.

 

We’ll therefore start with the eldest nominee (and the contender who had to wait the longest to get here), Bill Nighy.  Nighy has been a fixture in British cinema for decades, and is most noted to American audiences for his work in Love, Actually and the Pirates of the Caribbean franchise.  In Living, he is turning in the subtlest of these five performances.  I loved the way that he has to create a man that is easy to forget, and establish quickly that he didn’t expect much from life…and when he faces death, he must quickly understand who he is while in the same breath figuring that out.  It’s a good performance, one that he can’t be around for the payoff of, but still works well within the movie.

 

Austin Butler, in his first major film lead after TV and supporting film work for the past decade, is on the opposite end of his career.  Butler’s role became tarnished in some ways by the ridiculous press tour he did around the awards, his inability to abandon his Elvis persona earning the kind of mockery where I wonder if it precluded him from winning an Oscar he might otherwise have taken.  But under that pretension is a strong piece-of-work.  It’s impossible to give us the magnetism of Presley (he was a once-in-a-lifetime situation), but Butler gives us a myth, not needing to ground him but instead keeping him elevated even as he moves harder & harder into the King’s tragedy.  Whatever his off-screen antics, this is worth the praise it got.

 

Colin Farrell is the actor who I think should have been getting his second, third, or maybe even fourth nomination in 2022 (Oscar has always struggled to honor the pretty boys early in their career, so Austin make sure to cherish it).  Farrell’s work here is breathtaking.  He plays his Padraic as not simple, but someone who is happy.  He is surrounded by people who want a better life, but he’s content with what he’s got.  He has to portray him consistently through a series of connected emotions (sadness, anger, confusion, acceptance) when his world is torn asunder, and Farrell keeps them all at home in what Padraic is doing onscreen.

 

Paul Mescal’s promise as one of the best young actors of his generation meant Oscar attention was inevitable, but what a way to come onto the scene with a complicated look at a father’s relationship with his preteen daughter.  Aftersun is not an easy film, and you have to almost see this film twice before you realize the work he’s doing here, the way he’s reflecting not just his own reality, but the reality of his daughter trying to understand what he became as he got older.  As we learn through the movie, that knowledge won’t be clear unless you can read into Mescal’s work as a man given a child he loves, but perhaps too soon in his life for it not to come with some resentment.  I love what he’s doing here, and think it makes the movie.

 

Which brings us to Brendan Fraser.  Fraser seems like a lovely man, and he had a winning presence in the 1990’s in fluff like George of the Jungle and The Mummy before Hollywood threw him to the wolves.  But in a year where it felt like all four acting winners were running a race for Homecoming Queen rather than quality acting (i.e. this was very much a “Twitter fandom” quartet), no one embodied the problems of that more than Fraser.  Fraser is not a strong actor, and is wildly out-of-his-depth in Aronofsky’s The Whale.  The movie is bad, and writes itself as a horror film even though it’s more tragedy unless you want to indulge the fatphobic cruelty inflicted on Fraser’s Charlie.  But Fraser is adrift, playing his character as someone who existed only the second the film started, and doesn’t have any consistency from scene-to-scene.  His monologues are badly delivered, his chemistry with his onscreen daughter played by Sadie Sink is nonexistent, & this is one of the worst performances to ever get an Oscar nomination, much less win one.

Other Precursor Contenders: The Globes break out their nominees between Drama and Comedy/Musical, so we have ten names from their ceremony.  Drama gave their statue to Butler against Fraser, Nighy, Hugh Jackman (The Son), & Jeremy Pope (The Inspection), while Comedy/Musical went with Farrell atop Diego Calva (Babylon), Daniel Craig (Glass Onion), Adam Driver (White Noise), & Ralph Fiennes (The Menu).  The SAG Awards went with a near copy of Oscar (including winner) except they skipped Mescal in favor of Adam Sandler (Hustle) while BAFTA gave their statue to Butler atop the AMPAS field + Daryl McCormack (Good Luck to You, Leo Grande...BAFTA goes six-wide these days).  In terms of sixth place, I'm going to say it was...none of these?  My guess is that the late-breaking support for Top Gun: Maverick and the "he saved movies" battle cry would've gotten Tom Cruise back into the acting Oscars for the first time in 24 years.

Actors I Would Have Nominated: Gabriel LaBelle is getting skipped because he's young and Oscar struggles what to do with young men in lead roles.  But given he's critical to the success of The Fabelmans, and he's marvelous in the movie, I would've found a spot for him.

Oscar’s Choice: Fraser won over Butler, the SAG buzz being impossible to deny even if Butler had dominated the rest of the year.  Neither win would've aged super well for the actors (I think Butler winning so young would've given him a touch of the Adrien Brody's), but a bad look for Oscar.

My Choice: I will be totally honest here-I struggle mightily between Farrell & Mescal, and did in my own personal awards (this is the category I wavered the most in at the time).  In terms of who deserved the Oscar, it was Farrell, no question (he's far enough in his career it won't hurt him), but in terms of a merit alone...I still land with Farrell.  Mescal's work is beautiful, but Farrell's adds a lot of dimension while also needing to be funny, and I think the difficulty in that breaks my tie.  Both would've been inspired winners, though (and-spoiler alert-are my gold & silver medalists).  Behind them are Butler, Nighy, & Fraser, in that order.

Those are my thoughts-what are yours?  Do you want to stay on the side of Oscar & Brendan Fraser's comeback, or are you joining me in giving Colin Farrell his due?  In a field of first-timers, who do you think adds a second nomination first to their collection?  And does anyone want to fight me over it being Tom Cruise in sixth place?  Share your thoughts below in the comments!

Also in 2022: Supporting Actress, Supporting Actor, Adapted Screenplay, Original Screenplay, International Feature Film, Animated Feature, Sound, Score, Original Song, Production Design, Cinematography, Costume, Film Editing, Visual Effects, Makeup & Hairstyling, Previously in 2022

Past Best Actor Contests: 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021

No Globe? No SAG? No Problem!

This past week we saw not only the Golden Globe winners announced, but also the SAG nominations.  That means that we are able to do one of our annual series on the blog, a look at the acting nominees most likely to get nominated for an Oscar despite not having a nomination for either of these two major precursors.  Every year since 2006 (a year that was unusual mostly because of the wide spread of nominations shared by the Globes & SAG Awards for Supporting Actor, making it harder to pick something that hadn't already been selected) at least one nominee for the Oscars was not highlighted by either the HFPA or SAG-AFTRA, and becomes the "shock" of the morning.  At this point in the season, predicting the Oscars is something of a slog because so much is "decided" so trying to guess who will be this nominee becomes quite fun.  Here are the people from the past ten years who fit this bill:

2021: Penelope Cruz, Jesse Plemons, JK Simmons, Judi Dench, & Jessie Buckley

2020: Paul Raci & LaKeith Stanfield

2019: Florence Pugh

2018: Marina de Tavira & Yalitza Aparicio

2017: Lesley Manville

2016: Michael Shannon

2015: Charlotte Rampling, Tom Hardy, & Mark Ruffalo

2014: Bradley Cooper, Marion Cotillard, & Laura Dern

2013: Jonah Hill

2012: Quvenzhane Wallis, Emmanuelle Riva, & Jacki Weaver

Usually the types of nominees that get in under this designation fall into one of two categories.  First, and most often, it's people who sneak in because their film is either already being watched for Best Picture or another acting race.  Last year the former fit people like Jesse Plemons & Judi Dench, and the latter fit nominees like JK Simmons & Jessie Buckley.  In fact, in the past ten years only two of the nominees (Penelope Cruz & Charlotte Rampling) got in on their own-if you're calling this you're thinking of actors, likely relatively well-known (i.e. former nominees or noted character actors) who are in major films that for some reason haven't gotten much love yet this year.

Rampling & Cruz fit into this conversation in a different way.  Sometimes, an actor can sneak in solely based on their big name.  These performances tend to favor former nominees or winners (like Cruz), or people considered to be acting titans giving the performance of their lifetimes (like Rampling).  The gut instinct each year is to lean into this one because it's sexier, but it's much harder to pull off.

I will say, before we begin, that I'm honestly a little bit leery about this trend this year.  The Best Actress field is wide-open, but the Globes pretty much got them all save for Danielle Deadwyler, who was cited by SAG.  Arguably Best Actor is the category with the biggest opportunity to surprise, but while that fifth slot is wide open, there's a few Globe/SAG-blessed names (specifically Hugh Jackman, Jeremy Pope, & Diego Calva) who could get the nomination if Oscar is feeling less creative as much of the other contenders are not in genres that Oscar goes for, or are in films that aren't otherwise on his radar.  All that being said, the odds are with me that there will be at least one new name, but I am much more curious than most years over whom it might be.

Honorable Mention: There's a few honorable mentions that I'd like to throw out before we get to the main list.  Jennifer Lawrence & Brian Tyree Henry have solid reviews in Causeway, and Lawrence is obviously famous enough to get in on her own, but it's a tough sit and Apple doesn't seem that interested in promoting it this year.  Daniel Craig's work in Glass Onion will be seen by a lot of people, but I wonder if it might be too silly for him, even though it's starting to become a bit eyebrow-raising that the most successful Bond since Sean Connery has never gotten an Oscar nomination.  Gabriel LaBelle is likely too young to make Best Actor (he'd be the youngest person to be nominated since Mickey Rooney in 1939), but he's leading a Best Picture frontrunner (The Fabelmans) so you can't dismiss him entirely.  Nina Hoss (Tar) & Woody Harrelson (Triangle of Sadness) have subdued roles in Best Picture contenders, while Tobey Maguire goes over-the-top but very late in Babylon.  None of these names would surprise me, but I feel like they'd need more movement to make the cut at this point.

10. Andrea Riseborough (To Leslie)

For Her: I initially had Lawrence here given the potential "comeback" narrative of her getting a nomination, but I switched to Riseborough for a film that you likely hadn't heard of 72 hours ago.  Riseborough has had a groundswell of Academy members singing her praises in a way I've never seen before.  It's common for a high-profile Academy member to personally vouch for a less-famous performer (Julia Roberts did this to help get Javier Bardem nominated for Biutiful), but Riseborough has had a groundswell of support from everyone from Gwyneth Paltrow to Kate Winslet to Sarah Paulson.  Whether or not it works, it's impressive & has too many likely voters supporting her to totally ignore it.

Against Her: Riseborough violates pretty much every rule I stated above.  She's in a film that was barely released, she's not particularly famous (not in the way Penelope Cruz, nor in the way that even Charlotte Rampling is), and is a noted character actor.  She's worked with a lot of Academy members (probably why she's getting the push), but ahead of people like Ana de Armas, Viola Davis, & Danielle Deadwyler (the names she'd need to displace), with major studio pushes?  I think this is more of a curiosity campaign than one that will see her nominated.

9. Tom Hanks (A Man Called Otto)

For Him: Hanks is late-breaking in a movie that's becoming something of a sleeper hit against the odds. Older Academy members will like this film, about a curmudgeonly man who changes his ways by meeting people from different walks of life (the original was nominated for Oscars as well), and he's a beloved movie star.  It also is worth noting that with Bill Nighy, Brendan Fraser, Colin Farrell, & Austin Butler the likeliest nominees for Best Actor, that only leaves room for one former nominee to be cited (an all first-time nominee Best Actor race hasn't happened since 1934).

Against Him: While he's much more famous than Riseborough, Hanks would still be the only major nomination contender for A Man Called Otto.  I wonder if it might've broken just a little too late to catch the buzz that's happening from an increasingly curious public.  I heard a lot of people saying "I'm going to see it" this weekend, rather than having already seen it because it has been doing a slower rollout.  I wonder if a swifter rollout would've been the best play for Hanks, an actor who is definitely an Oscar favorite but who has repeatedly been passed over (Apollo 13, Captain Phillips, Bridge of Spies) just as often as he's made it.

8. Edward Norton (Glass Onion)

For Him: Norton gets a major, showy roll in a film that I think is an outside threat for Best Picture, and is certainly a movie most Academy members have seen (given it was a pop culture hit all over Christmas break).  Norton is a three-time nominee who has never won an Oscar, and if people are putting Glass Onion on their ballots (and I would assume they are given the response), it's not a stretch to assume they'd go with an actor they've liked in the past.

Against Him: Just how strong is Glass Onion?  The miss at SAG Ensemble, as well as their snub of Janelle Monae, has me wondering if people are taking this film seriously enough to be considered a true Oscar contender, or if this is just popcorn fare that will have to settle for a writing nomination just like its predecessor.

7. Jean Smart (Babylon)

For Her: Smart is pretty much the textbook definition of a Jesse Plemons-style nomination.  A woman that has a key role in a film that is in play for Best Picture, and she's in the middle of a career peak.  Her roles in Hacks and Mare of Easttown got her mountains of nominations for television, and she steals scenes in this movie.  She also has a killer monologue late in the movie that sums up Hollywood in one gigantic, moving nutshell...it's the sort of thing that, if they like Babylon, they could easily cite, particularly given how wide open the Supporting Actress field feels right now.

Against Her: Do they like Babylon?  Babylon, which until it actually opens was not just a major threat for nominations, but could've won Best Picture, bombed so spectacularly at the box office it's hard to tell where the Academy goes with this.  Sometimes Oscar doesn't give a crap about box office, and it is a good movie (that feels up their wheelhouse).  But will they simply vote for the actors that are obvious contenders (Robbie & Pitt) or could they get creative and cite someone like Smart?  It's hard to tell, which is why an otherwise surefire contender isn't in the Top 5.

5 & 6. Claire Foy & Jessie Buckley (Women Talking)

For Them: I'm combining these two for obvious reasons.  The big reason why they both could contend as they are giving performances very much up Oscar's alley.  Both actresses are in Oscar's sweet spot right now (Buckley was just nominated last year, Foy has been making a name for herself as a serious thespian by launching The Crown, a show that screams "older Academy members love me"), and both have the sorts of impassioned, difficult roles that Oscar loves.  The SAG nomination for Best Cast means that Women Talking still has a clear path to a Best Picture nomination, and in an actors' film, it feels weird they wouldn't cite, well, the actors.

Against Them: But if they like them, why aren't they getting votes?  Particularly with SAG, how did it make it for Best Cast but didn't get Foy or Buckley into the race?  I suspect what's happening is that voters are only picking one of them in a packed Supporting Actress field, and they're drowning out their support-each actress has a showy role, and it's hard to tell even between the two of them which is better-how do you decide that while trying to decide between 10-12 other names?  It's possible they are too even to get one of them in, and Women Talking isn't a big enough deal to get them both cited.

4. Tom Hanks (Elvis)

For Him: Hanks, as I said above, is an Academy magnet (two wins & 6 nominations through the years).  Elvis is a movie that the Academy (and the public) adored, and he has a near co-lead role as Colonel Tom Parker in this movie, playing the narrator atop Austin Butler's Elvis.  If they are big fans of the film, it's hard not to think that Hanks won't sneak onto at least some ballots, and in a year bereft of a lot of big biopics & prosthetic transformations (both things Oscar loves), Hanks would give them both in a tidy package.

Against Him: The reviews.  Jared Leto last year had an obvious path to a nomination for House of Gucci, but he didn't get it, and it was largely based off of people basically turning his performance into a joke that was too embarrassing for the Academy to get.  This is not good acting, and while that hasn't stopped Oscar before (Rami Malek, cough cough), coming from Hanks, someone who doesn't need this citation, it's hard to see a reason to give him a nomination that clearly will age poorly.

3. Judd Hirsch (The Fabelmans)

For Him: Hirsch spent much of the year in comeback mode.  The actor, who hasn't been nominated for an Oscar since 1980, got raves in early screenings of The Fabelmans, and again...this is the sort of thing that sneaks in last minute (not just with someone like Jesse Plemons, but think of someone like Alan Alda in The Aviator a few years back).  A former nominee who gets a key part in a Best Picture frontrunner...that's a recipe for success.  In many ways he reminds me of Judi Dench last year-someone who made sense all year but no precursor went for...until Oscar did.

Against Him: It's a short performance-Hirsch is barely in the movie, only taking up maybe 8-10 minutes of screen-time, and playing relatively little impact on the story at-hand.  Perhaps more of a problem is internal competition-it's clear that Paul Dano (an actor who is destined for an Oscar nomination at some point) is in the conversation after his SAG nomination.  It might be easier for Academy members to go there with a much larger part.

2. Paul Mescal (Aftersun)

For Him: Mescal is an up-and-coming actor that I think is sure to be nominated for an Oscar at some point.  His work in Aftersun, coming on the heels of his revolutionary performance in Normal People, has critics crying "best performance of the year" and it's a weak field.  I've made this analogy a few times this year, but in many ways the competition looks a lot like 2006, when there were four nominees set-in-stone but the fifth slot felt like it'd be a total free-for-all with atypical performances like Daniel Craig in Casino Royale and Sacha Baron Cohen in Borat threatening to upend Oscar's sensibilities.  In the end, they went for Ryan Gosling for a small movie that looked a lot more reputable, and was an endorsement of an actor they'd nominate again in the coming years.

Against Him: For starters, Gosling had a major precursor (a SAG nomination) headed into Oscar morning.  Mescal, without that, is a new face in a film that won't be cited anywhere else.  That's a tough go, particularly given he'd also be a the fifth first-time nominee in a category that loves to repeat nominees.  And against proven movie stars like Hugh Jackman, Tom Hanks, & our #1 option here...it's a tall order that feels a bit like online critics predicting someone they know, forgetting that industry types don't know every fresh new name without some help.

1. Tom Cruise (Top Gun: Maverick) 

For Him: That leaves us with Tom Cruise.  Cruise is in a surefire Best Picture nominee, he's a former nominee (and three-time loser), and everyone in the world knows his name.  This is also clearly something that means a lot to Cruise, who hasn't really been in the Oscar conversation since at least 2008, if not 1999.  I'm personally surprised he couldn't get a nomination for the Globes, but he did make it for the Critics Choice Awards, and if this film is looking like it could be a Best Picture winner (and that DGA nomination sure is a sign that it's in the running), it's hard to imagine they'd skip Cruise (even if he's a producer and will get an Oscar speech regardless).

Against Him: This is completely against-type for the Oscars.  I know we're looking at a year where Angela Bassett might win for a comic book movie (I will predict her, but part of me thinks she'll be the shock snub of Oscar morning next week), but Tom Cruise for playing Maverick?  For an Oscar nomination?  They have nominated action movie performances before, but it's rare, and more often, even when those films get nominated for Best Picture (like, say, Mad Max: Fury Road) it's more of a tech victory than an acting one.  This would stand out as a unique nomination if it happened.