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| Gov. Jeb Bush (R-FL) |
As a result of this, it's worth asking the question of who is helped and who is hurt by a Jeb Bush candidacy. Obviously presidential races have a way of turning out differently than you would have expected (who would have thought, for example, how much birth control would factor into the last presidential election, or that a birth certificate would play a role in the race four years before that?), but there's clearly tea leaves to be read when it comes to Gov. Bush's entrance, so I figured we would process who wins and who loses with his entrance into the race.
The Winners
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| Sen. Rand Paul (R-KY) |
Rand Paul has to be doing the happiest of dances right now when it comes to Bush's entrance. Paul and Bush have wildly different approaches to the government-no one can impugn Sen. Paul's libertarian/limited-government credentials, and as a result he will not be wrestling with the same base as Gov. Bush within the Republican Party. Bush's entrance also means that many of Paul's most formidable opponents will be competing for the same piece of the pie, which is great in a primary where you may win proportional delegates, but the buzz from the media, which focuses a lot on the winner of the race and eliminates contenders that underperform (as I've mentioned before, this is a terrible process in desperate need of a fix, but it is still our process). If Paul starts scoring early victories because Bush splinters support and the vote, that's most definitely a good thing (look at how someone like Barack Obama eight years ago used early victories to cement the nomination).
Secretary of State Hillary Clinton
Hillary, it should be noted, gains little from Jeb Bush in the primary. In fact, one could make the argument that it hurts her (I'll be doing that in a second). But I'm including Hillary in the winners column for now because no one seems to be able to touch her in the primary, and in the general Bush helps Hillary Clinton out tremendously. One of the major arguments against Sec. Clinton in the general is that her candidacy will feel too much like going back to the past. With Jeb Bush as her opponent, that's a harder pill to swallow. Yes, he makes it exponentially harder to win Florida, but swing states that got affected pretty badly toward the end of the Bush administration with layoffs (such as Ohio, Michigan, and Pennsylvania) will have an easier answer of whether you want a Clinton or a Bush in charge of the country.
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| Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) |
As I mentioned above, Hillary takes a hit when it comes to the primaries, however, as all of the attacks against Bush will be "failed policies of the past" and that argument could leak over to the Democratic primary, which could only help Elizabeth Warren, who has fast-emerged as the leading opposition candidate to a Clinton presidential run. Warren also benefits greatly if someone like Rand Paul is the Republican nominee, which becomes more likely against Bush-two candidates that could be considered toward the more extreme end of their parties will make it easier for the other to win the actual general election. After all, if it's Warren v. Paul for the White House in 2016, one of them will win even if independents don't really like either. Two-party system, that's how we roll.
Sen. Rob Portman
Rob Portman was one of the first candidates to get himself out of the presidential race, and as a result, made at the very least a bold decision. The question has been since then whether or not he made a smart decision, but his long odds on that query improved with Gov. Bush entering the race. The reality is that Portman's best shot at the presidency is to be Veep for eight years and make a play for the office in 2024. Portman has a long history of support for the Bush's, and served in two prominent positions during President George W. Bush's administration. I would imagine that Portman would be at the top of the second slot list for Jeb, if not the right-of-first-refusal candidate, so actually having Bush in the race will surely help Portman's chances at a higher office.
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| Gov. Mike Huckabee (R-AR) |
We now have Bush in the race, who will be fighting for the establishment wing of the party (and it's worth noting, this is the part of the party that usually wins the primaries). You have Rand Paul as a champion of the Tea Party and of the growing libertarian faction. But you still need someone to fill the void in terms of the social conservatives, and Huckabee, who still does well in polling despite being largely ignored by the media, would be the heir apparent if he so chose to go that route. Huckabee gains not only because another fracture in the establishment wing helps him gain ranking within the primaries, but also because he can lump most of his opponents in with Bush on issues like immigration, making it easier for him to gain ground with the religious right, who is clearly feeling abandoned in the party and wants to throw their decreasing but still significant clout behind a candidate.
The Losers
Gov. Chris Christie
Chris Christie has had a mixed year at best. While the Midterm elections couldn't have helped him more if they tried, his association with Bridgegate and his dwindling approval numbers back home have made 2016 an all or nothing situation (he won't be able to have this sort of momentum in 2020 while someone like Rand Paul or Marco Rubio might). Putting all of your chickens in one basket is occasionally a good political strategy (Bill Clinton did it to great aplomb in 1992), but it's still risky, and Christie and Bush will be fighting over the same set of donors and supporters, but Bush will be doing it with decades worth of loyalty toward a family that defines the Republican Party, and Christie will be doing it largely on his own.
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| Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL) |
I still wonder if Rubio dares to enter the race if Gov. Bush actually takes the leap. Same state candidates rarely make a play for the nomination against each other if only because you exhaust your home base of donors if you do that. Rubio has a long career ahead of him (though ask someone like Evan Bayh what waiting your turn feels like), and Jeb Bush is one of his mentors. I find it doubtful that he ends up running with Bush in the race, but considering that's all anyone talks about when you refer to Rubio, his leaving the presidential race could have a huge effect on his authority and ability to gain media attention in Washington.
Sen. Ted Cruz
Ted Cruz doesn't really care if the establishment doesn't like him. If he runs, he's in it to stick it to the powers-that-be. He's the candidate Sarah Palin would have been in 2012, except without as much name recognition and with a stronger field. His abilities, however, are largely built on a house of cards and aren't actually pragmatic, but generally candidates like Chris Christie and Rand Paul are reluctant to call him on it for fear of the Tea Party reprisal. Jeb Bush doesn't care about that. Bush is going to win the primary, if he wins, with establishment support, and of all of the candidates, is the least likely to win Cruz's supporters. As a result he's the only candidate that isn't afraid to call out Ted Cruz, something that he isn't used to from fellow Republicans, which could pose a problem in the debates.
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| Gov. Mitt Romney (R-MA) |
Romney is in a similar situation to Chris Christie, except unlike Christie he has a national base of support. He, like the Bush family, has been in the Republican Party for years. Still, when it comes down to it, who will the donors support-the man whose family has won three presidential races and he himself successfully won statewide in the most important swing state in the country (twice), or the man who just lost the presidential election to the much-loathed Barack Obama? 2014 has been the year of making Mitt Romney feel good, but that doesn't mean that he'll be able to translate that into another win come next year.
President George W. Bush
Sorry, bro, but your long retirement is coming to an end. No matter how hard he tries, Jeb Bush will not be able to escape the long shadow cast by his older brother, and he shouldn't even try. Avoiding what people are certain to think is a stupid idea, and you should try a different tactic. Still, though, President Bush is going to have to come out of retirement to campaign, and is going to have his administration's foibles brought forth every chance both Democrats and Republicans get, which won't be as feel good as George H.W. Bush's comparisons.
And those are my winners and losers with Jeb Bush's announcement. Who am I missing-what other people do you think gain or lose from a Bush candidacy? Share in the comments!
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