A Gay Marriage Update

This morning we had major news coming out of the Supreme Court, though not necessarily the news we were anticipating.  Instead of the Supreme Court taking on gay marriage, potentially issuing a major judicial ruling that would legalize (…or not) gay marriage, they declined to hear several same-sex marriage cases.

As a result of this, gay marriage is now the law in five different states: Indiana, Oklahoma, Utah, Virginia, and Wisconsin, and without an intervention before the 4^th, 7^th, and 10^th circuit the Court looks likely to have legalized gay marriage in six additional states (West Virginia, Kansas, Wyoming, Indiana, and the Carolinas), meaning that while this morning wasn’t the sweeping start to a ban across the country, it’s quickly getting to the point that all states will have their bans lifted before the Supreme Court has to intervene.

For the remaining twenty states, a number of them could have their bans lifted in relatively short order.  The Ninth Circuit Court had been hearing cases before it earlier last month, and court-watchers seem to agree that the Court is likely to overturn gay marriage bans in that jurisdiction, which could have implications for Arizona, Alaska, Idaho, Montana, and Nevada (all of which currently have bans).  The Fifth Circuit will hear cases later this year, affecting three states with a gay marriage ban (Louisiana, Texas, and Mississippi) and the pivotal Sixth Circuit (which Justice Ginsburg seems to indicate may be the key to the Supreme Court taking on the issue, if the Circuit agrees with gay marriage bans; if it doesn’t, and issues a verdict later this year overturning the ban, you’ll have Kentucky, Michigan, Ohio, and Tennessee joining the list).

That would, if you can believe it, leave just eight states left: Alabama, Arkansas, Florida, Georgia, Missouri, Nebraska, and the Dakotas.  While court cases are in place for all eight of these states, it seems extremely likely that these will be the final eight states with bans (which has been a bit of a parlor game).  Missouri is the only one of these eight states that has a pro-gay marriage governor (though Florida and Georgia well could before the election year is done), so those three would have a leg-up, though I would imagine that the courts would be a faster avenue.  Considering that most cases seem to have gotten stopped at the Court of Appeals, it will probably be a race between the 8^th (which includes Nebraska, Missouri, Arkansas, and the Dakotas) and the 11^th (which consists entirely of Florida, Georgia, and Alabama) over which states will be the final ones to overturn bans, provided that the Supreme Court doesn’t take up the case in the meantime.