With this clarity, we also have a much better indication of what the most important races for the battle of Senate are going to be, and so we're going to do a little twist on our State of the Senate articles today. Instead of me ranking the most likely to the least likely to change, I'm going to rank the Senate races in order of their importance (and their importance that you vote). The number one ranked slot is the most critical race for control of the Senate, and so forth down the line (for the record, I'm looking at this through the eyes of the Democrats, since they're the underdogs at this point by a pretty sizable margin and therefore they are the more practical framing device). Therefore, here are the most important races for the U.S. Senate:
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| Rep. Bruce Braley (D-IA) |
No seat is more important to the Democrats than Iowa. Putting it bluntly: if the Democrats cannot win this seat, their chances of winning the Senate approach zero. Polling in the race has given State Sen. Joni Ernst (R) confidence that she will pick up the seat for her party: recent polling only shows her down in one poll, and up by a couple of points or tied in other match-ups. Ernst has run the better campaign than Rep. Bruce Braley (D), who will likely regret for the rest of his career the comment he made disparaging farmers earlier this year when trying to insult Sen. Chuck Grassley (R), but Braley has the state's slightest of blue tinges to cling toward. Let's put it this way in terms of importance: the Republicans can win the Senate majority without Iowa, the Democrats cannot.
2. Colorado
If you're looking for what may be the truest tossup race in the country, look no further than the Centennial State. Sen. Mark Udall (D) and Rep. Cory Gardner (R) have exchanged leads for weeks now, with Gardner having the slightest of edges. The big question remains whether or not Udall can increase his margin with women, or whether Gov. John Hickenlooper (D) can save a struggling campaign. If the answer to these two questions are yes, it’s likely that the state’s slight blue tint will probably save Udall, who has hammered Gardner on personhood in a race that is likely going to be a major litmus test for the “War on Women” argument in 2016.
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| Sen. Kay Hagan (D-NC) |
3. North Carolina
If there is a race that has continually amazed and stumped pundits, it is North Carolina. While states all across the country have given the Democrats heartburn, Sen. Kay Hagan (D) has maintained a slight (but very real) single digit advantage over Speaker Thom Tillis (R). I put this at third not because it’s the third most vulnerable, but because it’s the one marginal seat that clearly is in the Democrats’ column. If it falters (and the longer the majority race leans Republican nationally, the more likely that is to happen), then the Senate math goes kaput for Harry Reid. But if Hagan can keep up her lead for the next few weeks, this is a critical win for the blue side.
4. Kansas
The giant question in this mess remains Kansas. Unlike the races above, polling here has given a clear lead to Independent candidate Greg Orman, who has led Sen. Pat Roberts (R) by as much as seven-points in polls (put it this way-this is starting to look like Michigan or Kentucky on-paper). Orman has stated that he will caucus with whichever party is in the majority, which will probably be the Republicans. However, if the Democrats were to win the three above races, there’s a very strong chance that Orman would be the deciding vote, in which case he would probably caucus with the Democrats (note I said probably there). Still, this is risky math-whereas someone like Mary Landrieu or Mark Pryor are clearly going to back the Democratic majority, Orman is a question mark and if you asked any insider in Washington, they’d rather take a sure thing. As it is, though, they may not have much choice.
5. Louisiana
The next two races on the list are higher than some of their counterparts not because they are polling better, but because they give the Democrats something they are in desperate need of: options. Like I said above, if the Democrats cannot land the first three races on this list, this race largely becomes moot. However, if Hagan, Braley, and Udall all win (not an impossible task, but one that I’d say would not be likely as of today), the Democrats will be at 49 seats, and be in search of a 50th. Sen. Mary Landrieu (D) could be that 50th seat. Democrats surely hope that Landrieu wins in November, something that is possible but not probable-Landrieu has seen her poll position increase slightly, but not enough to hit the critical 50% marker, which means that she’s headed to a runoff. In a runoff, anything can happen, particularly if control of the Senate would be up-for-grabs, and Landrieu knows this well (she was favored to lose this seat in 2002 until a scandal involving sugar (a major Bayou State export) came out in the press just days before the election, costing her opponent the win). Louisiana remaining on the table would mean that Kansas wouldn’t be the only option, though Landrieu would start a runoff as the underdog.
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| Michelle Nunn (D-GA) |
6. Georgia
Michelle Nunn (D) has the exact same situation as Mary Landrieu, except that she’s headed into November on the bottom end of the spectrum, hoping for a runoff: David Perdue (R), like Landrieu, is more likely to hit the 50% mark, though he hasn’t quite gotten there in the polls. If Perdue is forced into a runoff, he would still be a pretty strong frontrunner, but anything can happen in a runoff, and this would give Democrats another path to the majority, particularly with them knowing just how many seats they need (but like I said-the first three seats on this list would have to go blue in order for this race to truly matter).
7. Alaska
I’m torn between whether this should be seventh or eighth. In all honesty, I think the Democrats have a better shot of winning Arkansas than Alaska at this point, as Sen. Mark Begich’s “Willie Horton” style attack ad against Attorney General Dan Sullivan backfired big-time. The problem is that Alaska is incredibly difficult to poll, though Democrats can take little comfort in knowing that in the two recent close Senate races in the state, they over-performed in polls. Sen. Begich was ahead in all polls going into Election Night, though he went on to win a “skin-of-his-teeth” election over Sen. Ted Stevens. In 2004, Gov. Tony Knowles (D) was ahead in several polls the month before election day, but lost to Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R) by three-points. The fact that Democrats seem to over-perform in polls cannot bode well for Begich, who is currently behind Sullivan.
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| Rep. Tom Cotton (R-AR) |
8. Arkansas
Sen. Mark Pryor (D) continues to be down to Rep. Tom Cotton (R) in polling. About the only comfort that Pryor can take in this state is that he may be able to break undecided voters in his direction. Common wisdom is that challengers do better with undecideds, but that’s been proven to be pretty questionable in past elections, and Pryor has a long history in the state, as does his dad. There is a possibility that Cotton has hit his ceiling, and that if Pryor can make this race about Cotton in the closing few weeks, he may be able to pull on that goodwill. Still, though, that’s a stretch, and this is probably a lost cause for the Democrats (though it will still be marginal).
9. New Hampshire
New Hampshire is one of the oddest races in the country. It’s one of those rare races where both sides are feeling bullish about their chances. The Democrats are taking comfort in Sen. Jeanne Shaheen frequently being pretty far ahead of former Sen. Scott Brown (R) in the polls, and that Shaheen is one of the only politicians in a close race still enjoying decent approval ratings. Republicans are liking that Brown has clearly closed the gap, though he has yet to be ahead in a recent poll. The Granite State is weirdly spastic about who they send to Washington (throwing out an entire party in their congressional delegations in the 2006, 2010, and 2012 races), so Shaheen is hardly safe, but she’s certainly the safest Democratic incumbent in the Top 9.
10. Other Marginal Seats
The reality is that Kentucky, Minnesota, and Michigan won’t decide control of the Senate-if any of them go against the incumbent party, the Senate will have been decided earlier on in this list. That being said, they are definitely worth looking at the votes in if there is a Republican wave (which could cost Democrats Minnesota or Michigan) or if Democrats have a particularly solid GOTV effort (Mitch McConnell is hardly popular in the Bluegrass State). Still, though, these are just at the periphery at this point-the top nine are the states to truly watch.
And that’s where we are with the Senate. We’ll continue covering any major changes in the races, but unless we see something dramatic, this is our last “State of the Senate” until just before the election. What are your thoughts on the direction the Senate is going? Do the Democrats still have a shot, or is this a done deal? Share your predictions in the comments!
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