It's been a while since I've ranked the 2008 races for the Senate, so here are some updates on the five most competitive seats (the number one seat is the one most likely to switch at this point).
1. Virginia: Republican Sen. John Warner's (Liz Taylor's ex for all those people who read this blog for the film content) recent retirement was far more damaging to the Republicans than the entire Larry Craig and Thomas Ravenel scandals combined. Warner, probably the most beloved senator amongst his fellow senators, easily held this seat for the Republicans, and would have again in 2008. However, with his retirement, Gov. Mark Warner, the popular former Democratic governor, has been making heavy hints that he will run, and as the most popular politician in the state (his approval ratings when he left office were over 70 percent), he will be damn near impossible to beat. Warner is popular enough that his support and his investment in his own state party have led to Democrats holding the governor's mansion and winning a Senate seat in 2006. To compound that, Republicans appear to be headed toward a bitter primary between moderate Rep. Tom Davis and conservative former Gov. Jim Gilmore. And, proving that the GOP is in truly dire straits, Davis's House seat is also likely to head to the Democrats as well.
2. Colorado: It's been months since Sen. Allard has retired, and the candidates are now set, and as is traditional of 2007, it seems as if it's bad news for the Republicans. The Democrats have received their first choice, Rep. Mark Udall, whereas the Republicans are stuck with their primary loser in 2004, Rep. Bob Schaffer. Both of them are solidly liberal and conservative, respectively, which in traditional Colorado would mean that Schaffer would be headed toward a win, but the recent trend toward the blue that Colorado has been doing means that Udall should have an edge (particularly if the presidential candidate targets Colorado, which he/she most certainly will). This should be tight, but right now it appears as if the Democrats have a real edge.
3. New Hampshire: This seat could very easily skate up to Number 1 or 2 in the next month should the Democrats manage to get their dream candidate, Gov. Jeanne Shaheen. Shaheen has been toying around with running for months, and while she seems like she'll get in, her dragging her feet up until this point has Democrats nervous. Should she run, she could very easily beat one-term Republican Sen. John Sununu; she's been defeating him by twenty points at the polls and New Hampshire has had the sharpest turn blue in the last few years of any state in the country. If Shaheen doesn't enter, the Democrats could still win this with either Mayor Steve Marchand or Katrina Swett, wife of former Rep. Dick Swett, but it will be much tougher and divert attention from races listed below.
4. Minnesota: This race will be decided more in the Democratic Primary than in the general election. Norm Coleman has to be sitting at home and praying that the Democrats nominate comedian Al Franken. Should they do this, one has to assume that first-term Sen. Coleman has an edge over the comedian, especially considering that Minnesotans have "celebrity fatigue" due to the horrible tenure of Gov. Jesse Ventura. However, if millionaire attorney Mike Ciresi is the nominee, the Democrats will probably have the edge, particularly since this is a presidential election and Minnesota has the longest current run of picking Democrats for the White House (every single D since 1972).
5. Oregon: Sen. Gordon Smith is the last remaining Republican West Coast senator, since Slade Gorton lost in 2000. Smith had somewhat of a pass in 2002, but in a presidential year, Oregon House Speaker Jeff Merkley should be able to get the money to run competitively here, particularly since DSCC Chair Chuck Schumer has been fundraising something fierce. Smith would in a normal year have a distinct edge here, but the combination of a strong Democratic climate, plus the Democrats possibly having easy wins in Virginia and New Hampshire (particularly if they tie up things early and they have money to pour into this race) means that this could very much be a tossup.
6. Nebraska: This was the big, bad news of the weekend for the GOP. Two-term Sen. Chuck Hagel (R) announced that he would be retiring, thus setting up a free-for-all in the typically Republican Cornhusker State. Attorney General Jon Bruning is currently the frontrunner, on the condition that former Governor and current Secretary of Agriculture Mike Johanns gets into the race (though that could cause Johanns to explain his participation in the Bush administration). The Democrats wouldn't normally have a shot, but former Gov. and Sen. Bob Kerrey, a beloved icon of Nebraska politics, is considering a run for this seat, and that would automatically make him the frontrunner. Should he run (Kerrey's a maverick-there's no way to tell if he'll actually get in), he'll become the frontrunner for the seat, and thus giving the Democrats another seat that they could fairly safely hold. If Kerrey isn't in the race, Omaha Mayor Mike Fahey or former congressional candidate Scott Kleeb will be the nominee.
7. Louisiana: The first (and only) Democratic seat on this list, Sen. Mary Landrieu has been the GOP's number one target for the entire duration of this cycle. However, it would be one thing if Landrieu was competing Rep. Richard Baker or Secretary of State Jay Dardenne, but instead there is no challenger announced against Sen. Landrieu. State Treasurer John Kennedy, who just recently joined the Republican Party, could be the candidate to take on Landrieu, but he will face flip-flopping charges, particularly since he was a left-of-the-middle Democrat. Additionally, Kennedy could face a primary challenger from a more conservative Republican. All-the-while, Landrieu is stockpiling campaign funds a plenty, and, as the Republicans' only target, she'll be getting a lot of support from her fellow Democratic incumbents.
8. Maine: Sen. Susan Collins is a two-term incumbent with incredibly high approval ratings. In a normal election, she wouldn't be anywhere near this list. However, she is a Republican in a state that hasn't gone for a Republican for president since 1988; the extremely poor conditions for Republicans, particularly with money from the DSCC being shovelled here, MN, and OR all means that Sen. Collins will be in for a tough reelection. This is particularly true since the Democrats have recruited their number one choice for the seat, Rep. Tom Allen. If the climate continues, Allen could take this in an upset, but Collins is the most formidable of the four blue-state GOP senators.
9. Alaska: Sen. Ted Stevens is a legend in Alaska, and hasn't had a tough election since 1968, but his current FBI probe has been costing him in both loyalty and and in his invincibility. It seems as if he might be getting a primary challenge from a myriad of challengers, though former Lt. Gov. Loren Leman or St. Sen. John Binkley both appear to be the highest profile challengers. Even if Sen. Stevens makes it through the primary, there is still Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich (D), son of former Rep. Nick Begich, who is the toughest potential Democratic challenger that Stevens has ever had.
10. North Carolina: Sen. Elizabeth Dole had one of the worst tenures as the NRSC Chairs in recent memory, and is noted as one of the worst campaigners in the Senate (note her horrid candidacy for president in 2000). Luckily for her, she is from a fairly conservative state,
particularly because she has been one of Bush's biggest supporters. However, since her SurveyUSA polls are teetering in the low 50's and polls have shown her before 50 percent against two state legislators (St. Sen. Kay Hagan and St. Rep. Grier Martin), one has to assume that this is definitely on the Democrats to watch list.
States also considered for this list: South Dakota, where Sen. Tim Johnson's Democratic label could be a problem in the conservative Mount Rushmore State, Idaho, where Sen. Larry Craig's recent scandal could have an effect on the race, and Oklahoma, where St. Sen. Andrew Rice will be hoping to turn Jim Inhofe into the next Jim Bunning/Conrad Burns.
1. Virginia: Republican Sen. John Warner's (Liz Taylor's ex for all those people who read this blog for the film content) recent retirement was far more damaging to the Republicans than the entire Larry Craig and Thomas Ravenel scandals combined. Warner, probably the most beloved senator amongst his fellow senators, easily held this seat for the Republicans, and would have again in 2008. However, with his retirement, Gov. Mark Warner, the popular former Democratic governor, has been making heavy hints that he will run, and as the most popular politician in the state (his approval ratings when he left office were over 70 percent), he will be damn near impossible to beat. Warner is popular enough that his support and his investment in his own state party have led to Democrats holding the governor's mansion and winning a Senate seat in 2006. To compound that, Republicans appear to be headed toward a bitter primary between moderate Rep. Tom Davis and conservative former Gov. Jim Gilmore. And, proving that the GOP is in truly dire straits, Davis's House seat is also likely to head to the Democrats as well.
2. Colorado: It's been months since Sen. Allard has retired, and the candidates are now set, and as is traditional of 2007, it seems as if it's bad news for the Republicans. The Democrats have received their first choice, Rep. Mark Udall, whereas the Republicans are stuck with their primary loser in 2004, Rep. Bob Schaffer. Both of them are solidly liberal and conservative, respectively, which in traditional Colorado would mean that Schaffer would be headed toward a win, but the recent trend toward the blue that Colorado has been doing means that Udall should have an edge (particularly if the presidential candidate targets Colorado, which he/she most certainly will). This should be tight, but right now it appears as if the Democrats have a real edge.3. New Hampshire: This seat could very easily skate up to Number 1 or 2 in the next month should the Democrats manage to get their dream candidate, Gov. Jeanne Shaheen. Shaheen has been toying around with running for months, and while she seems like she'll get in, her dragging her feet up until this point has Democrats nervous. Should she run, she could very easily beat one-term Republican Sen. John Sununu; she's been defeating him by twenty points at the polls and New Hampshire has had the sharpest turn blue in the last few years of any state in the country. If Shaheen doesn't enter, the Democrats could still win this with either Mayor Steve Marchand or Katrina Swett, wife of former Rep. Dick Swett, but it will be much tougher and divert attention from races listed below.
4. Minnesota: This race will be decided more in the Democratic Primary than in the general election. Norm Coleman has to be sitting at home and praying that the Democrats nominate comedian Al Franken. Should they do this, one has to assume that first-term Sen. Coleman has an edge over the comedian, especially considering that Minnesotans have "celebrity fatigue" due to the horrible tenure of Gov. Jesse Ventura. However, if millionaire attorney Mike Ciresi is the nominee, the Democrats will probably have the edge, particularly since this is a presidential election and Minnesota has the longest current run of picking Democrats for the White House (every single D since 1972).
5. Oregon: Sen. Gordon Smith is the last remaining Republican West Coast senator, since Slade Gorton lost in 2000. Smith had somewhat of a pass in 2002, but in a presidential year, Oregon House Speaker Jeff Merkley should be able to get the money to run competitively here, particularly since DSCC Chair Chuck Schumer has been fundraising something fierce. Smith would in a normal year have a distinct edge here, but the combination of a strong Democratic climate, plus the Democrats possibly having easy wins in Virginia and New Hampshire (particularly if they tie up things early and they have money to pour into this race) means that this could very much be a tossup.6. Nebraska: This was the big, bad news of the weekend for the GOP. Two-term Sen. Chuck Hagel (R) announced that he would be retiring, thus setting up a free-for-all in the typically Republican Cornhusker State. Attorney General Jon Bruning is currently the frontrunner, on the condition that former Governor and current Secretary of Agriculture Mike Johanns gets into the race (though that could cause Johanns to explain his participation in the Bush administration). The Democrats wouldn't normally have a shot, but former Gov. and Sen. Bob Kerrey, a beloved icon of Nebraska politics, is considering a run for this seat, and that would automatically make him the frontrunner. Should he run (Kerrey's a maverick-there's no way to tell if he'll actually get in), he'll become the frontrunner for the seat, and thus giving the Democrats another seat that they could fairly safely hold. If Kerrey isn't in the race, Omaha Mayor Mike Fahey or former congressional candidate Scott Kleeb will be the nominee.
7. Louisiana: The first (and only) Democratic seat on this list, Sen. Mary Landrieu has been the GOP's number one target for the entire duration of this cycle. However, it would be one thing if Landrieu was competing Rep. Richard Baker or Secretary of State Jay Dardenne, but instead there is no challenger announced against Sen. Landrieu. State Treasurer John Kennedy, who just recently joined the Republican Party, could be the candidate to take on Landrieu, but he will face flip-flopping charges, particularly since he was a left-of-the-middle Democrat. Additionally, Kennedy could face a primary challenger from a more conservative Republican. All-the-while, Landrieu is stockpiling campaign funds a plenty, and, as the Republicans' only target, she'll be getting a lot of support from her fellow Democratic incumbents.8. Maine: Sen. Susan Collins is a two-term incumbent with incredibly high approval ratings. In a normal election, she wouldn't be anywhere near this list. However, she is a Republican in a state that hasn't gone for a Republican for president since 1988; the extremely poor conditions for Republicans, particularly with money from the DSCC being shovelled here, MN, and OR all means that Sen. Collins will be in for a tough reelection. This is particularly true since the Democrats have recruited their number one choice for the seat, Rep. Tom Allen. If the climate continues, Allen could take this in an upset, but Collins is the most formidable of the four blue-state GOP senators.
9. Alaska: Sen. Ted Stevens is a legend in Alaska, and hasn't had a tough election since 1968, but his current FBI probe has been costing him in both loyalty and and in his invincibility. It seems as if he might be getting a primary challenge from a myriad of challengers, though former Lt. Gov. Loren Leman or St. Sen. John Binkley both appear to be the highest profile challengers. Even if Sen. Stevens makes it through the primary, there is still Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich (D), son of former Rep. Nick Begich, who is the toughest potential Democratic challenger that Stevens has ever had.
10. North Carolina: Sen. Elizabeth Dole had one of the worst tenures as the NRSC Chairs in recent memory, and is noted as one of the worst campaigners in the Senate (note her horrid candidacy for president in 2000). Luckily for her, she is from a fairly conservative state,
particularly because she has been one of Bush's biggest supporters. However, since her SurveyUSA polls are teetering in the low 50's and polls have shown her before 50 percent against two state legislators (St. Sen. Kay Hagan and St. Rep. Grier Martin), one has to assume that this is definitely on the Democrats to watch list.States also considered for this list: South Dakota, where Sen. Tim Johnson's Democratic label could be a problem in the conservative Mount Rushmore State, Idaho, where Sen. Larry Craig's recent scandal could have an effect on the race, and Oklahoma, where St. Sen. Andrew Rice will be hoping to turn Jim Inhofe into the next Jim Bunning/Conrad Burns.
No comments:
Post a Comment