Senate Outlook

In part two of my three part look at Election 2006, I'll be examining the ten seats most likely to switch in the U.S. Senate. As it was with the House races, the Number One seat is most likely to switch, going to least likely to switch at number ten.

1. Pennsylvania-I toyed with putting this at number two, and a month ago that's where it would have been, but as it is, I am positive of one thing in November: Bob Casey will send the most controversial Republican in the Senate back to Pennsylvania. Liberal activists will rejoice and conservative activists will weep, but Rick Santorum will be sent home after one of the oddest Senate terms in recent memory, where he basically ticked off everyone with a pulse. Casey will certainly be a much-watched senator, the first Democrat elected to a full-term in Pennsylvania since 1962.

2. Montana-This could just as easily be number one, as there is little doubt in my mind that it'll end up going to the challenger, State Senator Jon Tester. Tester has run a rather impressive populist campaign this cycle, especially considering that he's more liberal than the Montana electorate. However, when you're running against an incumbent as scarred as Sen. Conrad Burns, your political ideology might not matter much. With his flannel shirts, blue jeans, and buzz haircut, Tester doesn't look that much like a senator, but come January, he'll be one.

3. Ohio-Who would have thought that Mike DeWine's career would be on its final legs a year ago? Not I, but that's the way it's headed. Sherrod Brown, like Tester, is slightly to the left of the electorate, but that doesn't seem to matter-he's run a superb populist campaign, and appears to be ahead of DeWine. People have often grouped this race with Races Number Five and Seven on this list, but I actually think that this isn't much of a bellwether for Repubicans-any GOP member in Ohio this cycle is running on borrowed time, and DeWine looks to be one of potentially many casualties.

4. Rhode Island-Speaking of borrowed time, any Republican, even if they are as liberal as Sen. Lincoln Chafee, knows that there political career could end at any moment in the bluest state in the nation, Rhode Island. I feel this is the case in Rhode Island this year, as Former Attorney General Sheldon Whitehouse has maintained a small but real lead in the race headed to November. While Whitehouse has an ample base to draw from, Chafee has to deal with dissatisfaction with Bush/Frist/Hastert, the Foleygate, and a lukewarm base brought on by a tough primary in September. Should Whitehouse win this seat in November, expect him to hold it for as long as possible (and for Patrick Kennedy and Jim Langevin to kick themselves for giving up a Senate seat).

5. Missouri-Races 5-7 are where the Senate lies. The first four races, to a lesser or greater degree, favor the challenger (thus theoretically giving the Democrats four seats). The Democrats, however, need a net gain of six seats and still need to hold all of their seats. Should they take seats 5-7, which is a very real possibility at this point, they'll take back the Senate in one of most impressive underdog races I've ever seen.

One of the three races they'll need will be Missouri, and anyone who says that this race leans any way but tossup is just blinded by partisanship. Sen. Jim Talent (R), who filled out a partial term after a special election in 2002, is running his third air-tight race in six years against State Auditor Claire McCaskill. The conventional wisdom here is that McCaskill has a guaranteed 48 percent of the vote, she just needs those last three percent. The latest round of polls show her with a one-two point edge, which may be enough, but I'm reluctant to call anything in this race that has seesawed the entire cycle.

6. Tennessee-I'm going out on a limb and putting this at six when it would be just as easy to put it in position number seven, but like I said, 5-7 are interchangeable. In Bill Frist's open seat (and what's it going to say about his presidential ambitions if he can't hold a red seat in a red state?), Rep. Harold Ford, Jr. has been running arguably the best campaign of the cycle, and Mayor Bob Corker has been running the worst. This has led to Ford having a slight lead, despite TN's clear Republican advantage. One has to wonder if and how race will factor in this, as Ford would become the first black man to be elected to the South in the Senate since Reconstruction. In a race this tight, everything from Foley to Gov. Phil Bredeson's (D) coattails to the tempestous turnout battle in Ford's home district could be a factor. If the Democrats win here, they'll have their sixth pickup. That is, if they can hold...

7. New Jersey-Sen. Bob Menendez (D) is easily the most endangered Democrat running for reelection in Congress. Corruption allegations have been slung at him and State Sen. Tom Kean, Jr., has turned this into the nastiest Senate battle in the country. If the election had been held two weeks ago, Kean would have been headed to the Senate. As it sits now, it's basically a coin toss. The latest set of polls show that the ball is headed back into Menendez's court, as notoriously fickle NJ Democrats are starting to return to the base in the wake of the Foley scandal. This may be just enough to push Menendez into a full-term in the Senate, but I'm not ready to call it. Like I said, this, as well as Missouri and Tennessee, are the only pure tossups in the Senate races-if the Democrats manage to keep their good fortunes alive, they may take all three and give Harry Reid the majority.

8. Virginia-The following three all have various degrees of advantage for the incumbent, but could potentially fall if the challengers pick up some wind. This one is the most-likely of the three, particularly because it's the only of the three to feature a Republican incumbent. Sen. George Allen has maintained a small, but real lead over Secretary of the Navy Jim Webb. However, Allen's bumbles have been numerous, ranging from macaca comments to ham sandwich jokes, and he's basically ticked off any Democrat who would have potentially crossed over to vote for him. Webb's over $3 million raised in the last quarter will surely help him in the final days, and I suspect that this race will continue to garner bad press for Allen, but this does appear to be the one bright spot on the GOP map at the moment. However, Allen's chances at succeeding Bush went from very bright to nonexistent in the course of this campaign.

9. Maryland-Rep. Ben Cardin (D) is not as exciting as Lt. Governor Michael Steele, but that likely won't matter in the upcoming month. With Republicans everywhere getting a bad rap, Steele's conservatism won't be able to fly in blue state Maryland. The only reason that this race remains in the top ten and hasn't been delegated to the ranks of Vermont/Minnesota is that, aside from the fact that Cardin's recent lead is in fact recent, the question of the black vote is in play here. Will African-Americans turn out in November, even though two prominent African-Americans lost primary races to white men in September? There's no way of knowing, but I suspect that Cardin will be able to get out the vote enough to carry himself to a first-term in the Senate.

10. Washington-I toyed with putting any of the next three races here, but I suspect that Sen. Maria Cantwell (D) is the most vulnerable of the four. At one point, she seems destined to love to businessman Mike McGavick, but as the race has played out, it seems that Washington doesn't want to send a Republican to D.C., whether or not Cantwell is too moderate for them. Cantwell could still lose this race, particularly if the heat from her involvement with Aaron Dixon continues, but I'm starting to feel that a 7-9 point victory is in order for this accidental senator. Should Cantwell win, she'll likely be able to use her increased seniority over the next six years to establish a better working relationship with WA's Democratic voters, and therefore have easier reelections.

As for the other seats, here they are ranked (I put in some comments, but no in depth commentary, as all of the incumbent parties have a decided edge).

11. Michigan-Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D) once looked vulnerable, but Republican troubles will outweigh economic woes in Michigan, and she'll win a second term (and like Cantwell, likely use it to increase voter awareness of herself, as she was also an "accidental" senator).

12. Nebraska-Sen. Ben Nelson (D), as a Democrat in Nebraska, always has to be careful, but should win this race rather handily.

13. Arizona-Sen. Jon Kyl (R) caught a big break when the DSCC decided to shift its funding of Jim Pederson to races like VA, MO, and TN.

14. Minnesota-Succeeding Sen. Mark Dayton (D) will be Hennepin County Attorney Amy Klobuchar (D), as Rep. Mark Kennedy's (R) campaign has set new levels of ineptitude.

15. Vermont-Rep. Bernie Sanders (Independent who will side with the Democrats) looked like he'd have a close call for a second there, but his base has returned and he'll be one of potentially many Democratic freshmen this cycle.

16. West Virginia-Sen. Robert Byrd (D) will take this once competitive race handily. Republicans probably should have targeted this race more, as Byrd's age could have been the Senate equivalent of the Iowa-3 race.

17. Connecticut-This will stay with the Democrats in one way or another (unless Lieberman switches parties, which I doubt will happen), but Joe's Senate run may cause an increased Republican turnout, therefore jeopardizing challengers Farrell, Courtney, and Murphy.

18. Nevada-Certainly no Republican in a mildly competitive race should let his guard down, but Sen. John Ensign's (R) run against Jack Carter in all likelihood will end with a ten point victory for the Republicans.

19. Florida-If Sen. Bill Nelson (D) didn't have it easy enough, polls show that Rep. Katherine Harris's home district will go to a Democrat and Florida will likely be roiled by the Foley scandal most heavily.

20. Maine-Sen. Olympia Snowe (R)-Snowe will almost certainly win, but you have to wonder-if State Senator Michael Brennan or Rep. Tom Allen had run against Snowe this cycle, I suspect that she'd be in the fight of her political life right now.

21. New York-Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (D)
22. New Mexico-Sen. Jeff Bingamann (D)
23. Hawaii-Sen. Daniel Akaka (D)
24. Texas-Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison (R)
25. North Dakota-Sen. Kent Conrad (D)
26. Delaware-Sen. Tom Carper (D)
27. Utah-Sen. Orrin Hatch (R)
28. California-Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D)
29. Wisconsin-Sen. Herb Kohl (D)
30. Wyoming-Sen. Craig Thomas (R)
31. Massachusetts-Sen. Edward Kennedy (D)
32. Mississippi-Sen. Trent Lott (R)
33. Indiana-Sen. Richard Lugar (R)-Like Snowe, you have to wonder if the Democrats had been able to recruit a top notch candidate (like, say, former Rep. Tim Roemer) here, would they be headed to another victory? Considering the loathing of Republicans in Indiana right now, I'd guess yes.