House Ups and Downs

Here at a glance, is a list of people who will be moving soon onto our list, moving up it, or falling down from it:

Movin On Up:

Florida-16: No race's dynamics changed faster last week than Mark Foley's race against Tim Mahoney. In a matter of days, a seat that was on no one's radar has suddenly shuttled to the top ten Democratic pickups. I suspect that this race leans Mahoney as it is, and could very well take other Republicans down with it. Which gets me to...

New York-26: John Boehner, John Shimkus, and Dennis Hastert may all be linked to the Foley Scandal, but Tom Reynolds is the only one who has a race that could be potentially divisive. Jack Davis will certainly be bringing up the Foley Scandal, and if the Republicans keep fumbling it (particularly Carl Forti taking Foley's funds), Reynolds could find himself funding his own race.

New Mexico-1: Patricia Madrid has pulled into a tie with Heather Wilson, according to the Research and Polling poll, which is bad news for Wilson. The Dems and the challengers will have an edge, and Wilson may have to fend off the Foley scandal as well, if it continues to target Hastert. Richardson and Bingamann will both have big coattails-this could be magic number fifteen.

Not So Competitive:

Vermont-AL: No new polls, but in the super liberal Vermont-AL district, I doubt a scandal involving the Republican House leadership is going to help Martha Rainville. Of all the vulnerable Democratic seats, a reminder of the Republican leadership is most going to hurt here. Welch should be headed toward Washington soon.

Connecticut-4: Diane Farrell is down in the latest U of Conn poll. One of the Republicans from Connecticut is going down, but will it be Simmons instead of Shays? If Farrell can get this tied by Labor Day, the Democratic wave and the influx of Lamont voters will pull her over the edge, but a five-point deficit will not work well for her.

Pennsylvania-6: Polls show Gerlach taking a lead, and where the hell are Murphy's television ads? The environment, both statewide and nationally, are all there for Lois Murphy-if she loses this race, it is completely her fault.