Governors Outlook

And here is part three, the governor's outlook. Like before, these are ranked from most likely to turn over to least likely to turn over. The Democrats seem to have taken the first six rather handily, and then it's basically a sea of vulnerable Democratic seats, that, if the wave hits, likely won't come to fruition. The real question is, will the Republicans be able to keep their hemmoraging to the top six, or will there be problems with a low ranking race that will emerge as an upset.

1. New York-The real question is not whether Eliot Spitzer will win (he will, replacing Gov. George Pataki and giving the Democrats the statehouse for the first time since Mario Cuomo), but will he have coattails? Not just for Andrew Cuomo (running for attorney general), but for the races against Reynolds, Kelly, Sweeney, Walsh, and the rest in the U.S. House, not to mention the State Senate. If he does, he'll suddenly have a bunch of new friends in New York.

2. Ohio-Who would have thought that Rep. Ted Strickland nearly turned down the race for Republican Gov. Bob Taft's? He's now about to become a governor of arguably the most important electoral state in the nation. In the polls, it appears that he's leading Attorney General Kenneth Blackwell by easy double digits, some showing as high as a twenty point lead. The situation in the GOP is so bad that the Democrats are going to actually have constitutional officers after this election-meaning that they'll have a bench for the first time in a decade.

3. Massachusetts-Lt. Gov. Kerry Healey (R) got what she wanted, and I think she has the buyer's remorse. Suddenly, Deval Patrick (D), the Democrat who appeared out of nowhere but rode a liberal wave to the Democratic nomination, appears unstoppable. As the only black governor, he'll certainly have a good deal of press during his first term, and I suspect that there will be less of a push to outlaw gay marriage in MA come Gov. Mitt Romney's retirement.

4. Colorado-The state that has turned from deep red to purple to downright navy in less than three years is going to elect a Democratic governor in the form of Denver District Attorney Bill Ritter. The fact is, unlike in 2004, where Pete Coors was a truly hideous candidate, the Republicans have a proven candidate this year in Rep. Bob Beauprez, but the Democrats are just unstoppable here. The real test in this state won't be the governor's race, it will be the constitutional offices, two of which are open and one was filled in 2005 by an appointee. If the Democrats can take any of these, I suspect this state will go for the Democrats for president in 2008.

5. Arkansas-Mike Beebe shouldn't be able to win this so easily. Despite being a popular Democratic attorney general, the governor of Arkansas is just as popular, and he's a Republican. His opponent is Rep. Asa Hutchison, who in theory would be just as good of a candidate as Beebe. And yet, Beebe is going to win-there's little to no doubt about it. The margin of victory is in question, but the victory, that seems certain.

6. Maryland-Pity poor Bob Ehrlich. He's done nothing wrong, other than had a little R behind his name. That's enough for Democratic rising star Martin O'Malley, mayor of Baltimore, to take the lead and could soon take the statehouse. Ehrlich could still pull this off, but with each passing scandal, O'Malley gets closer to winning. Democrats better hope, however, that O'Malley and Cardin coordinate, as either one could fall victim to low turnout if the African American vote is ticked off this cycle in Maryland.

7. Oregon-I'm ranking Oregon above Number Eight simply because no one else is, but the fact is, this could just as easily be ranked Number Eight. Kulongoski's one ace-in-the-whole is that this is very much a Democratic year, and even though he's unpopular, he's got the liberal Oregon thing going for him. Ron Saxton, his State Senator opponent, could be this cycle's Dino Rossi, though, so Kulongoski better be on his guard.

8. Jennifer Granholm was, four years ago, the future of the Democratic party. This year, it appears that she's in the fight of her political life-businessmen Dick DeVos has been running an incredible race and the Michigan economy is in the dumps. However, recent polling has shown Granholm taking a small lead, which makes me wonder if she'll be able to pull this off at the last minute based on her character (not the issues).

9. Minnesota-I push this up higher than most pundits because conventional wisdom is being defied in this race with every passing poll-Mike Hatch is within the margin of error of Gov. Tim Pawlenty in almost every poll done in this race, and the most recent Rasmussen poll shows Hatch with a four-point lead. I suspect that if there is a Democratic wave in 2006, this will be a good bellwether race. This may, in fact, be the only Republican race susceptible to the wave-the first six are going there whether Republicans like it or not-Minnesota's a true tossup.

10. Iowa-Gov. Tom Vilsack (D) is retiring (possibly to run for president), and there was a time that this was the most vulnerable Democratic statehouse. Now, with the Mark Foley scandal potentially hurting Rep. Jim Nussle (R), and all polls showing a small but potent lead for Secretary of State Chet Culver, I move it to third place. If the national environment improves for the GOP, I'll move this up, but for now, I think that Culver will become a very, young, tall, attractive potential national candidate in November.

11. Maine-I still believe that Gov. John Baldacci (D) will pull this off (if only in the national environment), but State Sen. Chuck Woodcock (insert your own joke) has made this much more of a race than it had a right to be. This could be the sleeper victory that Republicans are praying for.

12. Wisconsin-Rep. Mark Green was already embroiled in scandal, but now that all House members are underfire for supporting Dennis Hastert/John Boehner, Gov. Jim Doyle (D) has a little breathing room.

13. Rhode Island-Another potential upset (like Maine), but I suspect that the Republicans will end up on the winning side here. Gov. Don Carcieri is too conservative to be elected to a national office from RI, but liberals are more accepting in their statehouses.

14. Nevada-Like Rhode Island, this has a potential to upset, but it'll be a tough race. Rep. Jim Gibbons is just too powerful, too well-known to lose to liberal State Sen. Dina Titus. The national environment will keep this within ten points though.

15. Illinois-Gov. Rod Blagojevich should be going down (considering his approval ratings), but Judy Baar Topinka, despite being the best candidate for the job, has run a crappy campaign-she'll lose, and the Democrats will have another four years of power in Springfield.

16. Alaska-Much like IL, in theory this should be much closer, but Mayor Sarah Palin (R) has put an incredible margin between herself and former Gov. Tony Knowles (D).

17. Florida-You'd think in the wake of the Mark Foley scandal, the Democratic House member running for governor, Rep. Jim Davis, would be able to gain on Attorney General Charlie Crist (R). He can't, and he'll be a lobbyist in a year.

18. Idaho-The fact that Rep. Butch Otter hasn't completely put this away shows that the Republican national environment is really bad. Otter will win, but it will be closer than you'd think.

19. Texas-I put this here not because Perry will lose, but because with Strayhorn, Friedman, and Bell exchanging second place, it'll be a very unpredictible result.

20. California-Arnold would have lost a year ago. But the Democrats nominated the abysmal Phil Angelides, and Arnold will be starring in a sequel to his first term.

21. South Carolina-Gov. Mark Sanford (R)
22. Georgia-Gov. Sonny Perdue (R)
23. Oklahoma-Gov. Brad Henry (D)
24. Vermont-Gov. Jim Douglas (R)
25. Pennsylvania-Gov. Ed Rendell (D)
26. Arizona-Gov. Janet Napolitano (D)
27. Connecticut-Gov. Jodi Rell (R)
28. Kansas-Gov. Kathleen Sebelius (D)
29. Wyoming-Gov. Dave Freudenthal (D)
30. Tennessee-Gov. Phil Bredesen (D)
31. Hawaii-Gov. Linda Lingle (R)
32. New Hampshire-Gov. John Lynch (D)
33. Alabama-Gov. Bob Riley (R)
34. South Dakota-Gov. Mike Rounds (R)
35. New Mexico-Gov. Bill Richardson (D)
36. Nebraska-Gov. Dave Heinemann (R)