Five Ups, Five Downs

On the rise:

1. New York Democrats: Spitzer, Clinton, and Cuomo are all cruising to a massive reelection. Tom Reynolds is falling faster than Superman coated in kryptonite. All of this adds up to vulnerable Republicans: it appears, according to a recent string of polls, it may be more than just NY-24 and NY-29: Sue Kelly, Peter King, and John Sweeney are all very vulnerable.

2. Vulnerable Democratic Representatives: Republicans have scaled back their ad wars in districts like Alan Mollohan's and John Spratt's, and once vulnerable Democrats are turning into safe bets for reelection. This also includes Charlie Wilson in Ohio-6, who may the easiest reelection of any candidate who was written off at some point in this cycle.

3. Claire McCaskill: McCaskill hit a historic and pivotal point in her campaign this last week: she cracked fifty percent in a poll, and in SurveyUSA no less! While it is still too soon to race this anything but a tossup, if this continues, it may join Rhode Island and Ohio as a race that everyone's calling a Tossup but is leaning to the Democrats.

4. Nancy Johnson-Another poll, another Johnson lead-Murphy just doesn't appear to be gathering enough traction this cycle, all of which is making it look like one CT Republican will be returning in November. Murphy better be hoping that Johnson retires in 2008, as that may be his only shot at winning this seat.

5. Mike DeWine-I list him not because he's leading in any polls, but because the Republicans are rumored to be spending $10 million to try to keep DeWine in the Senate. If you ask me, this would be smarter spent in New Jersey or Missouri, but to each his own.

On the fall:

1. Chris Shays-Just when he was cruising to a difficult, but increasingly certain reelection, he says one of the least intelligent comments of the cycle, saying that unlike Teddy Kenneddy, Mark Foley didn't kill anyone. There are no polls out right now, but it appears as if Shays calling a U.S. Senator a murderer won't help his race in liberal Connecticut.

2. Angie Paccione-The Democrats have started to pull money out of this race, which can only spell a loss for Paccione.

3. Curt Weldon-Already in a tight race, he's now in his own lobbying scandal. This could not have had worse timing for Weldon, who may have just used his last "Get Out of Jail Free" card.

4. Patrick Murphy-Apparently Mike Fitzpatrick's latest ad is a doozy, and Murphy could be labeled too young and inexperienced at this point.

5. Vern Buchanan-He's sinking his money into the race, and yet Jennings seems to have pulled a very real lead at this point in the wake of the Harris/Foley train wrecks.