Here is another take on the Top Thirty. Just one sentences here (check out my previous post for any more in depth analysis). (The previous rank is in parantheses)
1. Arizona-8: Giffords continues to cruise over Graf. The McCain endorsement just doesn't help. (1)
2. Florida-16: Ain't no way that Mark Foley's name is going to help Joe Negron. The Republicans basically should throw in the towel here. (NEW!)
3. Pennsylvania-10: Another scandal-plagued incumbent, Sherwood looks destined for failure to Carney. (21)
4. Colorado-7: Despite a closing of the gap, the fact that Bill Ritter will win here over incumbent Beauprez spells disaster for O'Donnell. (3)
5. Texas-22: Sekula-Gibbs needed a massive amount of money that the National GOP won't give her. (2)
6. Indiana-8: Ellsworth's law enforcement credentials could be a big help in this race. (7)
7. Indiana-2: Joe Donnelly continues to lead Rep. Chris Chocola in one of the most unexplainable races of the cycle (9)
8. Iowa-1: The Zogby poll still throws me, and until the Dems counter, I'll be dropping this race. (4)
9. New York-26: If any member of the House leadership is going down, it will be Rep. Tom Reynolds, who has ran an absolutely abysmal apology campaign (NEW!)
10. Pennsylvania-6: Lois Murphy has started to air ads, and appears to be following the Debbie Stabenow method of flooding the airwaves in the last four weeks. It could work... (6)
11. Connecticut-2: Those most conservative ads are going to hurt Rep. Simmons in this highly partisan atmosphere. (8)
12. Ohio-18: Basically, Joy Padgett is stewing in a sea of corrupt names: now she has to deal with Hastert, Boehner, and Foley to go along with Bush, Taft, and Ney. (17)
13. Indiana-9: The sudden demotion is brought on by an only two point lead for Hill over Sodrely in the latest SurveyUSA poll (5)
14. Ohio-15: Almost every pundit is writing this with Kilroy having an advantage, and the drubbing of the House leadership can't help Pryce (16).
15. North Carolina-11: Again, scandal can't help incumbent Taylor against Shuler. (18)
16. Pennsylvania-7: The NRCC spent a solo weak of spending just against Sestak instead of Murphys squared. That says something about the competitiveness here (26).
17. New Mexico-1: This has actually been an improvement week for Madrid (good polling), but the top fifteen suddenly became more competitive (12).
18. Florida-22: Shaw was running a good campaign, but now he has to tackle the Foley scandal (19).
19. New York-24: Arcuri had a non-scandal last week, but not all press is good press, and in a race this close, everything matters (10).
20. Florida-13: Polls show a wounded Vern Buchanan (R) losing to Christine Jennings (D). The stench of both current incumbent Katherine Harris's Senate campaign, along with neighboring district FL-16 with Foley makes Jennings a white hot candidate right now. This is the only district not directly associated with Foley that's been added this time (NEW!)
21. Illinois-6: Tammy Duckworth has an uphill battle against a non-scandalized GOPer in this red district, but she's kept it microscopic. (20)
22. Ohio-1: Anyone in Ohio should be troubled right now, and that includes Steve Chabot (24).
23. Pennsylvania-8: Will the Rendell/Casey landslides be able to bring the three Philly suburbs along with it? (13)
24. Minnesota-6: The Foley scandal has apparently helped Wetterling close the gap, but will she have the extra oomph to get that final five percent? (25)
25. Wisconsin-8: The gay marriage ban may ultimately elect Gard, but right now Republicans are doing horribly in open seats (27)
26. Connecticut-4: A big demotion, but Shays may be too liberal to lose, and Lieberman is clearly not helping things for the Democrats (11).
27. Kentucky-4: Lucas made a derogatory comment about gays, which isn't the best way to fundraise with liberal donors (14).
28. Washington-8: Dave Reichert still has the edge in this moderate WA district (22)
29. Virginia-2: The Phil Kellam battery scandal will likely sink his candidacy: I'm waiting for polls to back this up (15)
30. Connecticut-5: This is one of the nastiest campaigns of the cycle. Let's not remember what happened to Johnson in 1996 because of links to the GOP leadership (29).
I chose NY-26 and FL-16 to add for obvious reasons-the Foley scandal basically gave the Democrats these two seats. FL-13 is just a hunch, but polls appear to be backing me up.
Here's why I dropped these three:
Georgia-12: With all the money being spent saving Republican incumbents, I doubt that they'll have much left over to pick up this risky venture.
Vermont-AL: Rainville's links to the GOP leadership, however remote, kill her chances in this liberal year/district.
Colorado-4: This was sitting at number 31, I swear, and could still turn.
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