Here they are again, ranked from most likely to change to least likely. There are no new entrants this week (though if I had a list of forty, there would be several more very vulnerable Republicans seeping into it)
1. Arizona-8: Does anyone think that Graf can win? He's getting no bounce from the McCain endorsement, and Giffords basically has office space lined up. (1)
2. Texas-22: The ethical debate is going to help Lampson dramatically. Sekula-Gibbs's clock is ticking over trying to get her name out there... (5)
3. Pennsylvania-10: Sherwood's in the middle of a huge ethical scandal, and suddenly his opponent Chris Carney has opened a dramatic lead. This is the Dems to lose at this point. (3)
4. Florida-16: Tim Mahoney is leading in the latest polls, but the NRCC is spending a mint trying to hold this (possibly out of fear that Mahoney will turn into Melissa Bean). (2)
5. Indiana-8: The latest round of polls, another week of Ellsworth double-digit leads. Hostettler just this week started to campaign on television. (6)
6. Colorado-7: O'Donnell is closing the gap, but is it enough? Ritter's coattails could help here, but will the marginality of this district help at all for the GOP? (4)
7. Ohio-18: One of the biggest jumps this week, mainly because Joy Padgett has yet to gain a lead, despite having weeks to gain notoriety (err, name recognition). Bankruptcy and Ney floating into the news again only helps Space. (12)
8. Indiana-2: Donnelly continues to cruise to reelection in what has to be the oddest race of the cycle. (7)
9. Iowa-1: Polls are starting to align again for Democrat Braley, but Whalen seems to be able to turn the campaign very nasty. (8)
10. New York-26: Reynolds does not appear to have recovered from the Foley scandal, and Davis has yet to make any mistakes. (9)
11. Pennsylvania-6: The Murphy/Gerlach race isn't the lock that it used to be for the Democrats, but the reality is that this will go to whomever wins the House. If the Democrats win it back, it'll be Lois Murphy. If the Republicans hang on, it'll be Gerlach. (10)
12. Indiana-9: Unlike Donnelly and Ellsworth, Baron Hill is a known commodity and that makes this slightly more difficult for the Democrats. This is definitely third in Indiana, but the unfavorable conditions for Democrats there won't help Sodrel. (13)
13. Pennsylvania-7: Though the aftereffect of the Weldon scandal isn't completely known, my guess is that it won't be good. Look at what happened to Don Sherwood, Joy Padgett, etc. and you can see why Joe Sestak is so happy. (16)
14. Ohio-15: Every major pundit is starting to write off Deborah Pryce, and I don't know why-it seems like the best type of tossup. However, pundits tend to know these things, and Pryce certainly isn't gaining from the Foley scandal. (14)
15. Connecticut-2: It seems fitting that this is at fifteen-it's the seat that no one can gage. If the Democrats have any sort of wave, I'd suspect that this gets swept away. Otherwise, Simmons is a consummate campaigner. (11)
16. North Carolina-11: Rep. Charles Taylor is not doing well against Shuler in the light of the Culture of Corruption coming back to light. (15)
17. Connecticut-4: I was preparing to write this seat off until Chris Shays started to say more stupid things than Tom Reynolds. This was looking like a race that simply favored Shays because he's the incumbent, but now that there's a reason to vote him out of office... (26)
18. New York-24: Arcuri's getting good press over Meier, and no Republican is safe this cycle in New York. (19)
19. New Mexico-1: This will be one of the most fun seats on Election Night. One could make plausible arguments about either woman being ahead, and this may be the definitive bellwether district. (17)
20. Florida-22: Clay Shaw is in a mildly Democratic district that could fall as it neighbors the Foley district. Klein's a great campaigner, but Shaw's done this before. (18)
21. Florida-13: I'm guessing that this goes the same way as Shaw, as it has about the same reason to switch. Jennings is the real deal as a candidate, and Vern Buchanan is a bad campaigner. (20)
22. Illinois-6: If the Hastert angle of the Foley scandal resonates anywhere, it will be in this district. Duckworth is the one with all of the momentum, but will Roskam be able to sit on top of the GOP advantage? (21)
23. Wisconsin-8: Kagen appears to have all of the heat in this race, and if the Democrats win here, they'll easily be taking back the House. This is getting more and more on people's radar screens, and is a true tossup. (25)
24. Minnesota-6: If Wetterling's going to get in, will it be because of Foley's scandal or the burgeoning coattails that Amy Klobuchar is drawing? Every poll that shows that Kennedy is losing by double digits won't help Republican turnout in the most Republican district in Minnesota. (24)
25. Ohio-1: This doesn't have the same marquee value as Ohio 15 and 18, but for Republicans in Ohio, can Republicans rest on their laurels? (22)
26. Kentucky-4: Ken Lucas has stumbled a bit in the last couple of weeks, and unlike Ohio or Pennsylvania, there's no new races to get the vote out here. (27)
27. Washington-8: Both national parties are poring money into this race, and Burner is rising, but is it too late? (28)
28. Pennsylvania-8: In an odd move, a PA Republican is getting better buzz than a PA Democrat. Apparently, Fitzpatrick is running a fairly effective ad campaign. (23)
29. Virginia-2: Phil Kellam was headed to Congress before the assault charges, but Thelma Drake has to be breathing a lot easier at this point and praying that George Allen doesn't say anything stupid again. (29)
30. Connecticut-5: If this is a true wave, Nancy Johnson's effective campaign won't be able to work. Otherwise, Chris Murphy better start gunning for 2008. (30)
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