I am doing a final predictions series for the November 3rd presidential elections. If you've missed previous articles, they're listed right here: Alabama-Arkansas, California-Georgia, Hawaii-Louisiana, Maine-Montana, Nebraska-North Dakota, and Ohio-Texas)
(Note: I'll be doing commentary on every race for President, Governor, & Senate regardless of level-of-competitiveness. I'll only do mentions for the House if I assume it'll be competitive in some way-if the House race isn't listed, I'm assuming an easy hold for the incumbent party)
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| Rep. Ben McAdams (D-UT) |
President: Considering neither Hillary Clinton nor Donald Trump got above 50% in Utah in 2016 (Mormon voters, a loyal part of the Republican base, have been extremely critical of Trump & got out hard for independent candidate Evan McMullin in 2016), I am curious about the end margin here, but Trump has nothing to worry about in terms of an actual win.
House: Here's a race I can't get a gage on. Utah is really gerrymandered to try to compensate for Salt Lake City's solid blue tint (the city is divided up into three different districts to keep the state red-it's truly appalling if you google it). As a result, the fourth district is a seat that went for Trump but went for a Democrat in 2018 (now-Rep. Ben McAdams). McAdams should be fine-this is a district with an affinity for moderate Democrats representing them in the House (Jim Matheson made a career of it for years), and I assumed when Fox News staple Burgess Owens became his opponent that'd be the end of the GOP's hopes here (Utah likes their Republicans more in the Mitt Romney mold than the Sean Hannity mold), but Owens' has posted decent polling numbers, and my gut says that McAdams hasn't put this one away yet. If there's a Republican surprise or a better night for Trump than expected, look for Owens to get a seat here, but for now I'm keeping it in the blue column.
Vermont
President: Four years after the eyebrow-raising Bernie Sanders write-in campaign here, Biden should be fine, and likely with less of a third party problem.
Governor: Perhaps no single person was happier about Bernie Sanders losing the presidential primary than Republican Gov. Phil Scott. Had Sanders been on the ticket, Scott would've faced massive pressure from the left (despite his popularity) as the 2020 governor's race victor would've gotten to replace Sanders in the Senate, and there would've been worry that Republican Scott would've flipped the seat in the process. However, with Sanders not on the ticket, this is an easy hold for the Republicans (New England & their Republican governors-it's a strange but constant affair).
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| Dr. Cameron Webb (D-VA) |
President: 12 years after Joe Biden & Barack Obama shocked the political world by winning the Old Dominion, it's now old news that the Democrats are going to take the commonwealth.
Senate: Six years ago, Sen. Mark Warner had one of the bigger surprises of the Republican wave that year when he nearly lost the state to RNC Chair Ed Gillespie. This year, he'll have no such worries & get a third term.
House: Two years after Democrats took out three Republican incumbents, those challengers all seem fine (arguably Spanbarger in the 7th could be more vulnerable, but there's little indication that she, Luria in the 2nd, or Wexton in the 10th are at risk). Instead, it's another Republican seat that could go to the Democrats-the 5th district, where Republicans ousted incumbent Rep. Denver Riggleman in favor of archconservative Bob Good, who claimed that Riggleman's attendance at a gay marriage disqualified him from being a Republican officeholder (an argument, it's worth remembering, he won with voters). The Democrats have a solid challenger in Dr. Cameron Webb, better than they had in 2018, but this is still a red district. Trump won it by 11-points in 2018, and not even Ralph Northam could take it in in 2017. As a result, I'm thinking Good wins here, but the Republicans have left themselves open to a defeat that they would've never experienced with Riggleman, and similar to Colorado-3, that could prove disastrous if moderates don't like the direction the party is going.
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| Rep. Jamie Herrera Beutler (R-WA) |
President: I don't even think I've seen a poll of Washington this year, which obviously means a Biden victory, but I'm actually really curious how big of a victory he might get.
Governor: Gov. Jay Inslee (D) would be a heavy favorite for a Biden cabinet (so much so that many people assume Rep. Denny Heck gave up his seat in Congress to follow this hunch), but Inslee will for sure be reelected to another term before that happens.
House: Two House races worth noting here. Some have speculated that Rep. Kim Schrier (D), who picked up this seat in 2018, might be vulnerable, but I honestly don't see why. Schrier is running in a district that Hillary Clinton won, and there's no reason to believe that Biden won't do so in 2020; her opponent Jesse Jensen might be impressive, but so was Dino Rossi in 2018 & she still beat him. She'll be fine. I think the same will be true for Republican Rep. Jamie Herrera Beutler, who represents the 3rd district. This is a district to watch in terms of Trump's performance (it includes some very conservative rural counties, as well as the left-leaning Portland suburbs), but it went for him by 7-points four years ago, and Herrera Beutler's more moderate profile should win her enough split-ticket voters (if she needs them). A seat to watch in redistricting, though.
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| Paula Jean Swearengin (D-WV) |
President: Trump's going to win here. But I will state that West Virginia's polls have indicated a rebound for the party that is surprising, showing a double digit improvement for Biden compared to Clinton or Obama. If that's the case in West Virginia, it's worth asking if neighboring Ohio or Pennsylvania will also show some rebounding for Biden in their shared border areas (which of course would matter a great deal if the softness in Trump's support there could help Biden flip those states).
Governor: Gov. Jim Justice (R) switched parties shortly after Donald Trump took office, but unlike Jeff van Drew, it won't cost him at all. If there's a race that the Biden strength might help, look down-ballot to see if former Secretary of State Natalie Tennant takes back that office as polling shows her close.
Senate: Liberal activists frequently complain about how if they replaced Sen. Joe Manchin with a more progressive option, that would excite the base & the Democrats would still win. They have their chance this year as Paula Jean Swearengin defeated the more moderate State Sen. Richard Ojeda in the primary to take on incumbent Sen. Shelley Moore Capito. I have never bought into this "secret progressive voter in West Virginia" theory, and expect Capito to win in a landslide, but I'm curious if this race becomes an online touchpoint for conversations about progressive politics in red states.
Wisconsin
President: We have one last swing state to go. Wisconsin was, in my opinion two years ago, the state that would decide the election (i.e. the tipping point state). That might still happen, but it feels less like an option than it did two years ago. If Joe Biden wins on November 3rd, one of the main reasons for that is that he seemed to take Wisconsin off-the-table rather early. The polling there has shown it to have been quite favorable to Biden since he became the nominee (it was less so for other leading Democrats), and paired with the State Supreme Court victory for the Democrats earlier this year (which was a double digit win), Biden seems to have taken this away as an option for Trump. It's still a swing state, and one that has enough Republican voters that the Democrats can't take it for granted, but I'm going D+1.
Wyoming
President: Trump wins-end of story. Wyoming is not an interesting state politically even if it's always how I end these articles.
Senate: Wyoming will elect its first female senator (both major party nominees are women), and as this is basically a one-party state, it will be former Rep. Cynthia Lummis, who somehow avoided a brutal primary when Rep. Liz Cheney (they reportedly don't get along) declined to run for the primary against Lummis.
And Finally, to Recap:
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| The next President & Vice President? |
Governor: I am predicting Republicans gain a net of one seat in the governors' mansions this year (in Montana). I feel really good about this-there could be a surprise in Missouri, I guess, if Biden is doing WAY better than the number I just gave you (or, in that case, the Democrats could hold Montana), but otherwise-this is a really routine year for governors. End result is 27R-23D nationally.
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| The New Senate Leadership Team? |
House: Based on my math, I'm predicting a net gain of eleven seats for the Democrats. This would've been unthinkable even six months ago, but Biden's strength in the suburbs, combined with him having some recovery in rural communities has helped here down-ballot more than anywhere. I'm predicting 244D-191R, and while that will come with at least one long-time Democratic incumbent losing (Rep. Collin Peterson), it will also bring about a complete transformation of the suburbs to the left. This will also mean that the House will arguably be the most progressive it's been since the 1970's, possibly since the 1930's, since Democrats won this majority despite very few Blue Dog Democrats still in their midst.
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