I am doing a final predictions series for the November 3rd presidential elections. If you've missed previous articles, they're listed right here: Alabama-Arkansas, California-Georgia, Hawaii-Louisiana, Maine-Montana,
(Note: I'll be doing commentary on every race for President, Governor, & Senate regardless of level-of-competitiveness. I'll only do mentions for the House if I assume it'll be competitive in some way-if the House race isn't listed, I'm assuming an easy hold for the incumbent party)
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| Kara Eastman (D-NE) |
President: Nebraska, along with Maine, divvies out its presidential electors by congressional district, rather than as a lump win. As a result, the 2nd congressional district (comprising Omaha and some of its surrounding suburbs), is a swing district, and one that Hillary Clinton only lost by two-points, and despite getting clobbered statewide, Jane Raybould came within a point of winning it in 2018 in her Senate bid. This isn't a guaranteed lift, but with Biden outperforming with suburban voters, I think he's going to win here, and likely as a result this will be the final election that the Republican-controlled state legislature allows this kind of split as Trump will win statewide. For those who wonder why this might matter, if Biden wins all of Hillary Clinton's states, plus Michigan, Wisconsin & Arizona, he will be at 269-Nebraska's 2nd district would get him to 270. D+1
Senate: Sen. Ben Sasse routinely criticizes President Trump, but the Democrats put up a lackluster candidate & he'll be back for another six years, with or without Trump in the White House.
House: Back to the second congressional district. If we're predicting Biden, we have to take seriously that business executive Kara Eastman (D) might be able to oust Rep. Don Bacon, something she came within two-points of doing in 2018. Eastman, though, is much more liberal than the district (she has been seen as an ally of Sen. Bernie Sanders-while she didn't officially endorse him in the primaries she did attend one of his rallies in Iowa), and that has caused some moderate Democrats in the district (specifically former Rep. Brad Ashford) to endorse her opponent while also endorsing Joe Biden. It's possible that this will be noise (Eastman did better than the polls two years ago), but this is enough noise that I'm betting Bacon, a seasoned incumbent, wins again.
Nevada
President: If there's one Hillary-state that keeps me up at night, it's Nevada. The state is very polarized (the Democrats get virtually all of their votes from the Las Vegas & Reno metro areas, and then the rest of the state is dark red), and so it's entirely dependent on Democratic turnout. If the Democrats turnout in those areas, the Republicans don't have a counterpunch, but if they're lackluster, it's in play. So far, early voting indicates that the Democrats are coming to win (though by mail, rather than through early voting), so I'm keeping this with Biden, but this is the one Hillary state that I wouldn't say is "safe" for the former Vice President.
House: In a different cycle, Rep. Susie Lee (D) in the 3rd congressional district might be vulnerable, but the Republicans got an awful candidate, and Lee's district (an Obama-Trump district that comprises the Las Vegas suburbs) is likely to flip back blue on the presidential level this year, so she should be fine.
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| Gov. Chris Sununu (R-NH) |
President: Four years ago, Hillary Clinton barely won this state, but despite some early rumblings, no one seems to think it'll be a problem for Joe Biden (Biden is doing considerably better than Clinton did in polling in the New England states), and I'm not going to argue that assumption.
Governor: There are elections where you know one party will regret not making a bigger play for a seat, and this is one of them. Republican Gov. Chris Sununu will beat State Sen. Majority Leader Dan Feltes (D), but I can't help but think that with more national money Feltes might have gone for the upset here. As Sununu is seen as a probable challenger against Sen. Maggie Hassan in 2022 (setting up what might be the GOP's best shot at a pickup that cycle if Biden wins), not taking him out now could be a factor in control of the Senate in two years. Alas, it's too late for them now & Sununu will get a third term.
Senate: Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D) avoided Sununu challenging her this year, and with that, sort of faded into the background of the competitive races list-she'll easily take a third term.
House: Reps. Ann Kuster & Chris Pappas (both D) represent slight blue seats that in a Republican wave frequently push red enough that they'd be vulnerable, but there's minimal risk of New Hampshire going for Trump, and as a result they should be fine.
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| Rep. Jeff van Drew (R-NJ) |
President: Another win for Biden (states that start with "New" tend to favor Democrats this century), and one that'll quickly pad his lead in the electoral college on Election Night.
Senate: Sen. Cory Booker couldn't win the presidential nomination earlier this year, but he'll have the consolation of a third term in office come January.
House: Republicans definitely tried to win back one of the seats they lost two years ago as Democrats nearly swept the New Jersey House delegation, but their odds are waning as the election approaches. Democrat Andy Kim should get a second term in the 3rd, and despite running against Tom Kean Jr. (son of the wildly popular former governor that shares his namesake & the State Senate Minority Leader), Rep. Tom Malinowski should keep the 7th blue as well. The big question has oddly turned on whether the Democrats can flip back another seat. Most assumed when Rep. Jeff van Drew switched from the Democrats to the Republicans earlier this year (as a result of the impeachment), that he did so with a Trump-leaning district, and should be fine. Polling doesn't show that-his opponent Amy Kennedy has been leading in a lot of internal polling that's been released, and it seems apparent that van Drew has little crossover appeal now, but also is struggling to shore up his new base after being a Democrat for decades. I think this is a D+1 district, though it'll be tight, and as a result the Kennedy Family (Amy is the late Sen. Ted Kennedy's daughter-in-law) will continue to have a family member in Congress even with Joe Kennedy III losing the Massachusetts primary.
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| Rep. Xochitl Torres Small (D-NM) |
President: It's hard to imagine that 20 years ago New Mexico was so competitive that Al Gore won it by just 366 votes (closer in raw vote total, though not in terms of percentage of the vote, than even Florida that year). This year, Biden should take it without issue.
Senate: The most under-discussed open Senate race of the cycle (Democrat Tom Udall is retiring) is not being talked about because it's basically a coronation: Rep. Ben Ray Lujan (D) will get a promotion into the Senate without much issue or a change-in-hands.
House: In New Mexico, the real race is in the 2nd congressional district. This seat went for Trump in 2016 by 10-points, but it has a third party streak in it (it gave Gary Johnson some of his best totals in 2016 & 2018), and obviously it elected a Democrat in 2018 with Xochitl Torres Small's upset victory over State Rep. Yvette Herrell (R). In a presidential election, it's going to matter more whether or not Torres Small can win over most of those voters who went for Johnson four years ago (and who are likely free agents this year, though ones that historically would be more favorable to Trump). She could do it, but I don't think she will, and so we're going to go with an R+1 in a district that the Democrats were lucky to get for a term.
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| Rep. Max Rose (D-NY) |
President: It may take weeks to finish counting to understand the margin, but Joe Biden will be the obvious winner within seconds of the Empire State's polls closing.
House: Some people argue this list should be longer, but for my money there are four seat in New York worth paying attention to (I don't think the 1st, 18th, or 19th are in play even if their margins might flirt with competitive). Two of the Democrats that won Republican seats in 2018 are vulnerable this cycle. Rep. Max Rose has the tough job of winning over Staten Island voters, a solid base for Trump voters in 2016, while Rep. Anthony Brindisi is running in a red district that comprises much of upstate New York. Rose is in the easier district, but Brindisi drew a terrible challenger in former Rep. Claudia Tenney, so I'm going to guess that Rose loses while Brindisi hangs on, though both are genuine tossup races that could go either direction-R+1. However, in the 2nd congressional district which is an Obama-Trump district, Rep. Peter King's (R) retirement has given the Democrats an opening, as State Rep. Andrew Garbarino (R) has run a poor campaign, giving Babylon City Councilwoman Jackie Gordon (D) an opportunity that I think she'll cash in D+1 (worth noting that I've been more bullish about Gordon's chances than some). The same I suspect to be true in the 24th district, where Dana Balter is seeking a rematch against Rep. John Katko (R). Katko was one of only three House Republicans to win seats that Hillary Clinton won in 2016 two years ago, so he's definitely popular there, but polls show Balter tied here, and Biden should win here so...D+1 again. New York isn't the epicenter of this election in terms of the electoral college, but it's one of the only states where either party could end the night with a net of House seats.
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| Madison Cawthorn (R-NC) |
President: The most conservative of the Big 6 states, North Carolina's polling has been a conundrum up-and-down-the-ballot. Though polling is close enough he could win, there's very little indication that Donald Trump will win here, as he's been behind-or-tied in virtually every poll done in the Tarheel State. As a result, I'm going to call this for Biden, though again, this is not a state that Biden probably needs to hit 270 (though it'd be a state that would guarantee him 270) so if you're a Democrat, don't get panicked if Trump holds here...though concern might be warranted as one of Biden's better paths to 270 will have closed. D+1
Governor: Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper has not had any issues with polling this year, and while the presidential and Senate races have been competitive, Cooper has always stayed on top. He'll win a second term, and quickly be talked up as a potential 2022 Senate candidate if he's interested in running.
Senate: Up until a month ago, I felt really confident in Democratic State Sen. Cal Cunningham's ability to win an inexplicable victory (Cunningham has run a pretty generic campaign compared to some other candidates this year) to beat unpopular Sen. Thom Tillis (R). Cunningham, though, threw a monkey wrench into the race when it came out that he'd had an extramarital affair earlier this year. While it's not clear in 2020 how much an extramarital affair matters in a competitive race (after all, Tillis can hardly say too much about running against Cunningham on the issue while also supporting Donald Trump, who has had many such affairs), it adds an unknown into a race that the Democrats had secured. Polling bears out that Cunningham's revelations hurt his approval, but not his standings, and so I'm guessing this is a D+1 at this point, but if he loses, it will be a self-inflicted wound rather than the electorate that cost Cunningham his seat. It's possible this race more than any other is going to be a problem for predicting early if there's more to the Cunningham scandal than what we already know.
House: Mid-decade redistricting means that the Democrats quickly get D+2 here-the 2nd & 6th districts were redrawn & are now solidly blue so State Rep. Deborah Ross & Kathy Manning (who lost close races for Congress in 2016 & 2018, respectively) will now make it to DC in January. The bigger question is what happens in the 8th and 11th districts. In the 8th, Rep. Richard Hudson (R) has started to run even with State Supreme Court Justice Pat Timmons-Goodson (D), making this a sleeper race on election day. The same could also be said for the open 11th district (formerly held by White House Chief of Staff Mark Meadows), a solid red seat where real estate investor Madison Cawthorn has run into issues for using racist campaign tactics (and for photos of him on Instagram where he called visiting Hitler's Eagle's Nest something "on his bucket list")-internal polling has shown Cawthorn struggling against Air Force Colonel Moe Davis (D). Cawthorn & Hudson should be fine, but both are vulnerable enough that if turnout in their districts is strong, we could see a surprise.
North Dakota
President: If Heidi Heitkamp couldn't win two years ago, no way Joe Biden does in 2020. Easy call for Trump, even in a state that has been hit harder by Covid than any other.
Governor: Gov. Doug Burgum's response to Covid should make him vulnerable (sorry, editorializing, but come on here), but the state is too red to go blue in a presidential election.
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