I am doing a final predictions series for the November 3rd presidential elections. If you've missed previous articles, they're listed right here: Alabama-Arkansas, California-Georgia, Hawaii-Louisiana, Maine-Montana, Nebraska-North Dakota,
(Note: I'll be doing commentary on every race for President, Governor, & Senate regardless of level-of-competitiveness. I'll only do mentions for the House if I assume it'll be competitive in some way-if the House race isn't listed, I'm assuming an easy hold for the incumbent party)
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| Kate Schroder (D-OH) |
President: Ohio is no longer the bellwether state, it is no longer one of the most important swing states on the map. Its demographics are clearly indicating a rightward shift, and in 2016 it gave Trump a healthy advantage. That doesn't mean, though, that it still doesn't have some elasticity. It voted for a Democratic senator in 2018, and polling shows that it's within reach for Vice President Biden. There is no path to victory for a Republican president without Ohio. No Republican has won the White House without it. Ever. If Trump somehow loses Ohio, he's done for the night, and polls show that could happen...but not to the degree that I think it will (at least not without more evidence). I'm calling this one for Trump, and with it I am making the argument for the first time since 1960 that Ohio will not correctly match the presidential winner, thus ending its bellwether status. If I'm wrong, I think I'll be more wrong about Ohio than the nation.
House: Biden's strength over Hillary Clinton might not pay off at the top-of-the-ballot, but I think it could down-ballot. In the 1st district (most of Cincinnati & the Kentucky border), Democrats appear to have gained ground despite Rep. Steve Chabot (R) being a seasoned veteran of close races, and that seems entirely driven by Joe Biden providing cover for Democratic healthcare executive Kate Schroder. Schroder has run a terrific campaign, and I think it'll be enough for her to get a victory in this urban district. D+1
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| Rep. Kendra Horn (D-OK) |
President: Okay, there have been some weird polls in certain agricultural states that indicate that Donald Trump has lost some ground with farming communities since 2016 (likely due to lower yields on most crop prices compared to inflation), so Oklahoma will probably be a thinner victory than he got four years ago, but it'll still be a victory.
Senate: Every year there's at least one Senate race when I write these recaps that is such a foregone conclusion that I almost forget to include it in the recap. That'd be Oklahoma this year-Sen. Jim Inhofe gets another term.
House: The big prize on the map for both parties in Oklahoma is in the 5th district. Rep. Kendra Horn (D) won a surprise victory here two years ago, possibly the biggest surprise of the night, and has been running an uphill battle ever since to hold this Oklahoma City district. This is a district that went for Trump by 14-points, but it also went for the Democratic nominee for governor in 2018 (Drew Edmondson) by 9-points even as he lost statewide. Polling though indicates that this is a tossup district, one where Biden has rebounded significantly over Clinton to the point where he might actually win the district, and in the process Horn gets the victory. I do wonder a little bit if my head is messing with my heart here (full disclosure: Horn is one of my favorite candidates on the ballot in 2020), but I do think that Horn is going to close this race & gets the victory in the last days of the campaign. This would be considered an upset by some, but I'm going with it based on Horn being up in the latest Sooner Poll.
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| Alek Skarlatos (R-OR) |
President: Despite Nate Silver's weird obsession with making this competitive, Oregon is not a swing seat & will go to the Democrats with ease.
Senate: Sen. Jeff Merkley will win a third term with no trouble, particularly against a Republican gadfly candidate.
House: This is a race I have a note to not skip, because generally Oregon's House districts are all pretty easy holds. Republican war veteran Alek Skarlatos has run one of the best campaigns of the cycle on the right, and has made what is normally a cakewalk seat for Rep. Peter DeFazio pretty competitive. This is a district that went for Hillary Clinton by less than one-tenth of a percentage point, so it's theoretically competitive and probably going to get more so as it's also quite rural. However, Biden is likely going to take this seat in 2020, and as a result I'm going to give this to DeFazio. Considering the race he ran, though, the NRCC would do well to make Skarlatos the first recruitment phone call they make for 2022.
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| State Auditor Eugene DePasquale (D-PA) |
President: Did anyone else start hearing "Do You Hear the People Sing?" from Les Miserables at the mere mention of Pennsylvania (nope, just me?)? It is possible that Nevada or Florida or Arizona is the tipping point state in 2020, and it's possible for either side (particularly Biden) to win without Pennsylvania...but just like how you can breathe without a Tic Tac, you can win without Pennsylvania, "but I wouldn't recommend it." This is the most important state on the map, with competing factions-the increasingly red-leaning swath across the center of the state & the blue-trending suburbs of Philadelphia-causing its uncertainty. Because of its importance, it would be easy to fret for a while here, but based on most polling, Pennsylvania will go to Joe Biden. It could go to Trump, but Biden's shown a strength in the Philly suburbs that matches more Gov. Wolf & Sen. Casey in 2018 (who both won & are both Democrats) than Hillary Clinton, and doesn't seem to be losing as much support from his home state in the rural districts as Clinton. If Trump can't make inroads there, he won't win, and if he can't win Pennsylvania, his ability to win the White House becomes near nonexistent. D+1
House: Matt Cartwright & Conor Lamb are both Democrats representing red-leaning districts (Cartwright is where my money is for a district that will flip from Clinton to Trump if there is one in 2020), but should be fine with Biden at the top of the ticket. Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick could be vulnerable, but I don't think he is; Fitzpatrick represents a district won by Hillary Clinton (and likely to be won by Biden), but his opponent Christina Finello has not run the kind of campaign to take out a popular incumbent, and Fitzpatrick should be able to win over enough Biden voters to stay relevant. The one district that could matter, though, is the 10th. Rep. Scott Perry (R) is the kind of Republican who votes like Ted Cruz but represents a swing district, and that can be costly, particularly if Biden gains in the district (most internals show he will). Perry got a lousy opponent in 2018 & nearly lost-that's not the case in 2020, where he's facing off against State Auditor Eugene DePasquale. I'm going to guess that DePasquale gets this (and quickly becomes a redistricting priority for both sides) with so many factors running in his favor, even though a Perry win wouldn't be a shock. D+1
Rhode Island
President: An easy win for Joe Biden.
Senate: An easy win for Jack Reed. Nothing much to say in one of the bluest states in the nation.
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| State Chair Jaime Harrison (D-SC) |
President: There are some indications that Biden will do better in South Carolina than Clinton, and if there's an "Indiana in 2008" surprise lurking on the map, this would be a decent candidate. But Democrats didn't win the governor's mansion in 2018 when they could've, and as a result I don't think Trump will lose the Palmetto State.
Senate: Jaime Harrison has run a campaign for the history books. The most expensive race in history (his campaign has raised over $100 million), Harrison should be applauded for taking what was a foregone conclusion race and turning it into a race with upset potential against South Carolina institution Lindsey Graham. But...if we're judging this not on outperforming expectations but instead on just winning, I don't think Harrison has it. Essentially the only way that Harrison can win is with crazy strong turnout from his base (African-American voters and white, college educated voters in Charleston & the affluent East Coast communities), while rural South Carolina stays at depressed levels. With a presidential contest on the ballot, he might be able to do the former, but I don't think he'll be able to achieve the latter, and so Graham will get a (bruised) fourth term in the Senate.
House: Harrison's campaign, though, will not be in vain. Harrison's GOTV efforts will impact down-ballot, specifically the first district, where Donald Trump won four years ago, but Democrats scored a pickup with now-Rep. Joe Cunningham in 2018. Cunningham's district will probably go for Harrison, or be close enough that Cunningham can pickup the remaining slack to get a second term.
South Dakota
President: It'll be closer than North Dakota, but South Dakota will stay red.
Senate: Credit should go to South Dakota Democrats for finding a real candidate in State Sen. Dan Ahlers, but it won't matter as Sen. Mike Rounds gets a second term.
Tennessee
President: One of the few southern states that Democrats haven't even had a wishful thinking moment in the presidential or Senate races, an easy win for Trump.
Senate: Thanks to the retirement of Sen. Lamar Alexander, this is an open seat, so get used to learning the name of Bill Hagerty, who is about to waltz into the Volunteer State's junior seat.
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| MJ Hegar (D-TX) |
President: I don't know what's happening in Texas, and neither do you. What we can establish here is that Texas, for the first time since at least 1992, is competitive on a presidential level-polling bears that out. The problem with polling in Texas right now is that there are too many first-time or new voters in the state for us to be able to properly gage what will happen on November 3rd. Based on crazy high early voting numbers, as many as 4 million new voters (compared to 2016) could cast a ballot in the Lone Star State by Election Day, and with so many new voters it's impossible to rely on polling here. I'm going to predict Donald Trump wins. It's the conventional wisdom-Texas has been a red state for decades not just because of GOP strength in the suburbs, but also the vast populations in rural areas of the state, and that should matter more than most of the new voters. But, I think both sides are underestimating the flip potential in Texas, and I think the Biden campaign might look back on this race as one they could've gotten (if they don't get it) if they'd pressed their cash advantage over the Republicans. Which brings us to...
Senate: I mentioned when I discussed Amy McGrath's race in Kentucky that there's going to be a race where it'll be apparent the $80 million that was poured into McGrath's campaign could've flipped another seat. If I had to actually guess the seat, it'd be in Texas. If Biden wins here, straight-ticket voting ensures that Democrat MJ Hegar has a shot of winning-the Afghan war veteran has clearly shown some movement in her campaign in the past few weeks, and polls have her closing well. The problem is that it is unfathomably expensive to run a competitive race in Texas-there are too many media markets to take out an incumbent without "Beto in 2018" dollars, and Hegar never got that kind of money. As a result, her name recognition just days before the election is too low to take a win over Sen. John Cornyn. Had Hegar gotten more money, I think this could've been the shock of election night (especially if Biden does win at the top of the ticket), but for now it looks more like a missed opportunity.
House: Like several states we've already profiled, this up-top competitiveness compared to 2016 will pay dividends in the House. The Democrats locked up their two vulnerable seats (7th & 32nd) quickly, and are playing all offense here. The two seats that seem most likely to flip are the open 23rd & 24th. The former went for Clinton in 2016, and the latter for Beto O'Rourke in 2018. I think both flip-these are blue-trending districts, and new Democratic voters make the difference here. The only other Beto district held by the Republicans is the 10th, which could go, but doesn't have the same level of heat. Democrats are optimistic about the 2nd, 3rd, & 25th (O'Rourke nearly won the first two, and the third the Republican has run a lousy campaign), but I think fundamentals stay-in-place there. However, the 21st and 22nd are both very competitive. O'Rourke lost both by half-a-percentage point, and it's really easy to see Biden winning both of these urban districts (the former is based in Austin, the latter in Houston). I think the 22nd is the easier of the two, so I'm calling that one for Sri Preston Kulkarni (who is also running against a controversial local sheriff who might turnoff more moderate voters), while I'm going to barely give the 21st to Republican Rep. Chip Roy over State Sen. Wendy Davis, mostly because I worry Davis' more liberal viewpoints might cost her with recent Democratic converts who didn't support her 2014 campaign for governor. Again, it's hard to understate how big of a deal a Biden win could be in Texas, because while I'm predicting D+3, that number could double (and bring a Senate seat with it) if Biden actually takes the prize.
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