I am doing a final predictions series for the November 3rd presidential elections. If you've missed previous articles, they're listed right here: Alabama-Arkansas,
(Note: I'll be doing commentary on every race for President, Governor, & Senate regardless of level-of-competitiveness. I'll only do mentions for the House if I assume it'll be competitive in some way-if the House race isn't listed, I'm assuming an easy hold for the incumbent party)
 |
| Rep. Mike Garcia (R-CA) |
President: Trump's derision of California and its politicians (particularly Gov. Gavin Newsom) means not only will he lose, he'll lose by more than Hillary Clinton did four years ago.
House: Two years after the Democrats swept the Hillary-won seats in California (picking up an astounding seven seats), they are weirdly poised for yet another pickup this year. Due to losing the 25th district earlier this year in a special election, there is once again a Hillary Clinton-won seat that is on the ballot, pitting the special election contenders Rep. Mike Garcia (R) and State Rep. Christy Smith (D) against each other. It's normally wise to bet on the special election victor in the next general (the last time this was reversed with the same two candidates running was in 1994), but Smith has the big advantage of Joe Biden at the top of the ticket. She hasn't run a good campaign, but internals indicate she's gaining on Garcia due to Biden doing so well in her district, and I think straight-ticket voting is going to hurt Garcia enough that he loses here. The Democrats have also put up respectable races in the 1st, 4th, & 50th districts, but not enough to flip the seat. Republicans are definitely at least flirting with winning back the 21st, 39th, & 48th seats, but it's hard to see a lot of ticket-splitting there again with Trump so certain of loss in California (and his constant attacks on the state, not only verbally but also in terms of federal funding, are not helping). I'm going to guess all three Democratic incumbents hold, though if there is an upset it'll be in the 21st, where former Rep. David Valadao is quite well-liked & Democratic Rep. TJ Cox has not proven to be a great fundraiser. As a result, D+1, but stay up for California as there's definitely a lot of down-ballot action happening here.
 |
| Lauren Boebert (R-CO) |
President: The days when Republicans could count on the Centennial State in presidential elections are over-an easy win for Biden.
Senate: Those days are officially going to be over down-ballot on Tuesday when Sen. Cory Gardner (R) loses. Six years ago, Gardner rode a massive Republican wave into office over Sen. Mark Udall (ironically considering the votes that Gardner has taken in the Supreme Court, one of the reasons that Udall lost was because the media mocked him for being too dramatic about Gardner's potential power to confirm Supreme Court justices if elected). That's not happening this year, and Colorado has turned too blue for Gardner to get by without more favorable circumstances. The NRSC & DSCC no longer view the race as competitive, and as a result neither should we. Gardner loses to former Gov. John Hickenlooper and the Democrats get another D+1 in the Senate.
House: Colorado's 3rd congressional district shouldn't be competitive. It went for Trump by 12-points in 2016, and even during a landslide now-Gov. Jared Polis still lost it by 3-points in 2018. However, the Republicans botched an easy win when they selected gun-rights activist Lauren Boebert over incumbent Scott Tipton in the primary earlier this year. Boebert's criminal history (she's been cited for disorderly conduct previously, as well as unsafe driving) and her association with the conspiracy group QAnon has been fodder for the DCCC, who see an opening for their candidate, former State Rep. Diane Mitsch Bush. I think Mitsch Bush will get closer than you'd normally see (she'll outrun Biden, one of the few Democrats who can claim that), but I'm betting Boebert wins this race due to the red hue of the district & becomes a Fox News fixture.
Connecticut
President: At some point in the next decade, one of the New England states is going to start becoming a proper swing state again based on demographic shifts, but that won't happen in 2020 with Donald Trump on the ballot. Easy win for Biden.
Delaware
President: Joe Biden will easily nab the state he represented in the Senate for almost forty years.
Governor: John Carney will take a second term as governor, and then will inevitably be floated as a potential successor to Sen. Tom Carper for the remainder of his term.
Senate: If there's a current senator who is probably going to be considered for the Biden administration at some point (perhaps even as Chief of Staff), it's Chris Coons, who is a longtime ally of the former vice president. Until that happens, though, Coons is a safe bet for reelection.
District of Columbia
President: DC is arguably closer to becoming a state (an overwhelmingly popular movement in the district) than they ever have been if Biden wins, so they'll be giving him big margins & their three electoral votes.
 |
| Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell (D-FL) |
President: Oh god, it comes to that point in the article I truly hate-having to predict which candidate is going to win Florida. Here's the deal-I'm likely going to complain a little bit about polling in later swing state matchups, as there's something going on with polling this cycle that won't be clear until Election Day. Essentially, national polling has shown Biden up by more than state-level polling would indicate, and district-level polling shows Biden up by more than state-level polling would indicate. Either this means something odd (like Biden is making gains, but in red areas of the country that don't has as big of an impact on the electoral college), or state-level polling is being skewed too much as a reaction to Trump. This is true in virtually every single swing state...except for Florida. Florida it's obvious what the problem is for both camps. Biden is not getting enough support amongst Cuban-Americans, who traditionally vote Republican but switched in 2016 to Clinton...but based on polling are more welcome to giving Trump another four years. Trump, though, has lost large swaths of support amongst senior citizens, which will hurt him in Florida, particularly in central Florida (in places like the Villages), as support amongst senior citizens is crucial for a Republican victory here. At the end of the day, Biden has led in nearly every nonpartisan poll I've seen in the state in the past six months, and so I'm saying D+1 here, though it's Florida, so take that with a mountain of salt.
House: Democrats will talk about the 16th & 18th, and Republicans will claim the 27th is competitive, but for my money it's all about the 26th district. Though it's blue-leaning on the presidential level, the diverse 26th (Key West & Key Largo) is famously swingy in the House, and tends to favor moderate Republicans, which the GOP got in Miami-Dade County Mayor Carlos Gimenez. Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell (D) has struggled in her first term to solidify this growing district, and with Joe Biden under-performing with Cuban-American voters in Florida, I think that this race is poised for an upset, with Gimenez being one of the few bright spots for House Republicans. R+1
 |
| Jon Ossoff (D-GA) |
President: If you told me a year ago I'd struggle more with predicting who wins Georgia more than I did with who will win Wisconsin, I would have told you you were crazy, but that's kind of where we're at right now. Georgia has shown enormous early voting margins for Biden, and polls indicate he's about to swamp the Atlanta suburbs, likely by more than even Stacey Abrams did two years ago. But Abrams still lost, and while I think Biden will get closer than any Democrat has since Bill Clinton to taking the Peach State, this is one of those races I won't believe until I see it. For what it's worth, I write these articles a week in advance, and this is one of only a dozen races I'm bookmarking to reconsider, so it was that close for me.
Senate: One of the other dozen races for me to bookmark is Georgia's Senate race. Sen. David Perdue (R) is continuing a trend this year of 2014 stars not living up to the hype upon reelection (see also Cory Gardner). His recent intentional mispronunciation of Kamala Harris' name was a huge sign he doesn't understand how vulnerable he is (as Biden has a real chance of winning the state, and in that scenario Perdue needs Biden voters). His opponent Jon Ossoff (yes the guy from that insanely-expensive House special election three years ago), is gaining right now in the polls, but I don't know if it's enough. Ossoff/Perdue could go to a runoff if neither candidate get 50%, but I don't think that will happen. I'm betting on Trump to win here, so I'm going to go with Perdue, but considering the senator's missteps, I think we won't get a split-ticket here-either it's Trump/Perdue or Biden/Ossoff. The race that will go to a runoff is the special election (caused by the resignation of Sen. Johnny Isakson). The Democrat is certain (Rev. Raphael Warnock), but due to two minor Democratic candidates on the ticket, there's not really a path for him to hit 50% outright. My gut says that appointed-Sen. Kelly Loeffler will be able to get the second spot in the runoff over conservative Rep. Doug Collins, but that could set up a battle royale in January for the runoff, as Loeffler has run hard right (including embracing aspects of the QAnon conspiracy theory) in order to secure the base, something that could hurt her against Warnock & the Atlanta suburbs. It's worth noting that if either of the Georgia seats go to a runoff, we might not know who will win the Senate majority until January when that runoff would take place.
House: The one place I'm confident we are seeing a Democratic pickup is in the House. Two years after State Budget Director Carolyn Bourdeaux (D) lost the closest House race on the map, her 2018 opponent Rob Woodall has retired, and her opponent Rich McCormick doesn't seem to be up to the same caliber as Woodall. Hillary Clinton lost this district four years ago, but Stacey Abrams' won it in 2018, and all indications are that Joe Biden will in 2020 as well-that should be enough to get Bourdeaux into the House. Rep. Lucy McBath (D) has also been targeted by Republicans, but McBath has made no major missteps and like Bourdeaux is running in an Abrams district that Biden is probably going to win, so she should be fine. D+1
No comments:
Post a Comment